Irrigation and Flood Control

(CE 4161)

Dr. Khondoker Mahbub Hassan

Dept of Civil Engg, Khulna University of Engg & Tech (KUET)
 Chance Flood
Floods are often defined according to their likelihood of
occurring in any given year. The most commonly used
definition in planning is the '1 in 100 year flood'. This refers to
a flood level or peak that has a one in a hundred, or 1%,
chance of being equaled or exceeded in any year. Similarly, a
'1 in 200 year flood' has a one in two hundred, or 0.5%,
chance of being equaled or exceeded in any one year. Thus,
if a flood of a given magnitude occurs with an average
frequency of 100 years, then there exists 1% chance and is
generally called 1% chance flood: 1
100%  1%
100
Similarly, a flood having an average frequency of 20 years
can be designated as 5% chance flood: 1
 100%  5%
20
Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 2
 Probability of Occurrence (Flood)
Probability of Occurrence/Exceedance (p) =>
(Chance % taken as fraction)
The probability of occurrence of a flood equal to or greater
than 100 years => p  1 1 1
   0.01
Frequency F 100

Probability of Non-Occurrence (q) =>

1
q  1 p  1  1  0.01  0.99
F
Suppose, 170 floods have occurred in 120 years of records.
It is desired to find out the chance of a flood having a
frequency of 1000 years. [Thus, Flood in 1 year = (170/120)]
1
Chance for 1000 years frequency flood  100%  0.07%
170
1000
120
Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 3
Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods

1) California Method (Simple Probability Method):

Flood Flow => Qp Where,
T => Total Number of Floods
Flood Frequency, F = T/N
(i.e. Years of Record)
Chance = 1/F N => Order or Rank of Flood

2) Weibull’s Method: 3) Allen Hazen Method:

Flood Frequency, F = (T+1)/N Flood Frequency, F = T/(N-1/2)
4) Gumble’s Method:
Q p  Q p  K Where, Q p 
 Qp
T
 
T
T 1

Q p2  Q p 
2
 Q p2 
 Q p2
T
K = Frequency Factor

Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 4

Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
5) Gumble’s Extream Value Distribution Method:

Q p  Q p  K

y(T )  y n Where,
K y(T) => A dimensional variable in Gumble’s
Sn extream value distribution
Ӯ(n) => Reduced mean in Gumble’s extream
value distribution
 T  Sn => Reduced St. dev. in Gumble’s extream
y(T )   ln . ln  value distribution
 T  1  T => Return Period

Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 5

Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Gumble’s Method (K = Frequency Factor)

Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 6

 Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Prob-1: Flood frequency records on a river have been
collected from 1990 to 2006 and the peak Q are tabulated
below. Estimate the magnitude of floods having frequency
equal to 80 years & 400 years by (a) California Method (b)
Gumble’s Method.
Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Qp (m3/s) 3000 4400 6000 3500 2900 4800 3900 3300 6700 5400 4300 3700 4200 9000 4000 3600 5100

Solution - (a) California Method: T => Total Number of Years of Record = 17

Des. Order Qp (m3/s) 9000 6700 6000 5400 5100 4800 4400 4300 4200 4000 3900 3700 3600 3500 3300 3000 2900

Rank (N) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

F = T/N 17.00 8.50 5.67 4.25 3.40 2.83 2.43 2.13 1.89 1.70 1.55 1.42 1.31 1.21 1.13 1.06 1.00

Chance = (1/F)x 100% 5.88 11.76 17.65 23.53 29.41 35.29 41.18 47.06 52.94 58.82 64.71 70.59 76.47 82.35 88.24 94.12 100.0

Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 7

 Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Solution - (a) California Method (Continued…..):

18000
80 Years Flood =>
1
16000 Chance   100%  1.25%
80
14000 Q80 = 11000 m3/s
Q400 = 13200 m3/s
12000
Flood Peak (m3/s)

Q80 = 11000 m3/s

10000
400 Years Flood =>
8000
1
Chance  100%  0.25%
6000 400
4000
Q400 = 13200 m3/s

2000

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Chance %

Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 8

 Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Qp (m3/s) 3000 4400 6000 3500 2900 4800 3900 3300 6700 5400 4300 3700 4200 9000 4000 3600 5100

Solution - (b) Gumble’s Method:

Q p  Q p  K

Where,
 Qp 778102 K = Frequency Factor (Next Page Table)
Qp    4.58 103
T 17
 Q p2 394  106
Q 
2
p   23.2  106
T 17


T
T 1
2

Q p  Q p  
2
 17
17  1

23.2 106  4.58 103     1.56 10
2 3

Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 9

 Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Solution (b) Gumble’s Method (Continued…):
Determination of K (Frequency Factor)

Return Period (Years)

Sample Size 50 100 500

15 3.3207 4.0048 5.5857

17 3.2639 3.9371 5.4929

20 3.1787 3.8357 5.3538

3.9371 3.2639
K 80  3.9371  20  3.6678
50
5.4929  3.9371
K 400  5.4929  100  5.1039
400

Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 10

Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Solution (b) Gumble’s Method (Continued…):

Q p  Q p  K
 Qp 778102
Qp    4.58 103
T 17
3.9371 3.2639 Already
K 80  3.9371  20  3.6678 Determined
50
5.4929  3.9371
K 400  5.4929  100  5.1039
400

Q80  4.5810  3.6678 (1.5610 )  10302 m / s

3 3 3

Q400  4.5810  5.1039 (1.5610 )  12542 m / s

3 3 3

Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 11

Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Prob-2: Flood frequency on a river shown that during 50 years,
150 floods have occurred. The magnitude of each flood was
known, from which the number of floods falling between the two
limits of flood peak were counted and tabulated in table below.
Evaluate the magnitude of flood having a frequency of 15 years.
Use the Simple Probability method (California Method.)
Flood Peak Limit No. of Flood Peak Limit No. of
(m3/s) Floods (m3/s) Floods
650~709 1 1130~1269 10
710~779 5 1270~1414 13
780~844 30 1415~1699 8
845~914 22 1700~1979 3
915~989 20 1980~2499 5
990~1059 18 2500~2900 1
1060~1129 14
Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 12
Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Flood Peak Limit No. of Rank (N) F = T/N Chance = (1/F) x 100%
Solution for Prob-2 (California Method):

(m3/s) Floods
650~709 1 150 1 100
710~779 5 149 1.01 99.3
780~844 30 144 1.04 96
845~914 22 114 1.32 76
915~989 20 92 1.63 61.3
990~1059 18 72 2.08 48
1060~1129 14 54 2.78 36
1130~1269 10 40 3.75 26.7
1270~1414 13 30 5 20
1415~1699 8 17 8.82 11.3
1700~1979 3 9 16.7 6
1980~2499 5 6 25 4
2500~2900 1 1 150 0.67
T => Total Number of Events = 150 Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 13
 Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Solution for Prob-2 (California Method):
3000
No of Floods in 15 Years
2500 => (150/50) x 15 = 45 Nos.
Lower Flood Peak (m3/s)

2000 Thus, the greatest flood

expected in 15 years will
1500 have a chance as follows:
1
1000 Chance   100%  2.2%
45
500
Q15 = 2225 m3/s
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Chance %

Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan

14
Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Prob-3: For a river, the estimated flood peaks for two return
periods by the use of Gumble’s method are given below. What
flood discharge in this river will have a return period of 1000
years? Return Period (Years) Peak Flow (m3/s)
100 485
50 445

Solution for Prob-3 (Gumble’s Extream Value Distribution Method):

y(T )  y n
Qp  Qp  K K 
Sn
y(T )

  ln . ln

T 
T  1


y( T )  y n
Qp  Qp  
Sn Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 15
Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Solution for Prob-3 (Gumble’s Extream Value Distribution Method):
 T   100 
y(T )   ln . ln y(100)   ln . ln   4.6
 T  1
  100  1
 50   1000 
y( 50 )   ln . ln   3 .9 y(1000)   ln . ln   6. 9
 50  1  1000  1

 y(100) yn 
Q100  Qp      485 m 3
/s
 Sn Sn 

 y( 50) yn 
Q50  Qp      445 m 3
/s
 Sn Sn 
 y(100) y( 50) 
    40 m 3
/s
 Sn Sn 
Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 16
Determination of Flood Flow by Statistical Methods
Solution for Prob-3 (Gumble’s Extream Value Distribution Method):

  
 y(100)  y( 50)   40 m / s  4.6  3.9  40 m / s 
3 3
 57.3
Sn Sn Sn

Now, for 1000 and 100 years Return Period (Basic Equation) =>


 y(1000)  y(100)  S  Q1000  Q100
n

 6.9  4.6 57.3  Q1000  485

 Q1000  617 m3 / s

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Lec-5 CE 4161 Prof. Dr. Kh. M. Hassan 18