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Landslides of Western Maharashtra Rapid appraisal for developing improved


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Technical Report · March 2022

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Landslides of Western Maharashtra
Rapid appraisal for developing improved preparedness and early warning systems for
landslides in Western Maharashtra and Konkan Regions, Maharashtra State

Expert group and lead authors


• Dr. Vivek Kale (Geology & Geomorphology), Member Trustee, ACWADAM, Pune
• Dr. Gurudas Nulkar (Ecology), Prof and Head, Symbiosis Centre for Climate Change and
Sustainability. Trustee, Ecological Society
• Dr. Devdutt Upasani, Assistant Professor, Fergusson college, Pune (Geology and intern co-ordination)
• Er. Aalam Tamboli, Director, Midas Enviro, Pune
• Uma Aslekar, Addl. Director, ACWADAM
• Dr. Himanshu Kulkarni, Executive Director, ACWADAM

Advisors
• Dr. Makarand Bodas, DDG, Geological Survey of India
• Dr. Vijay Pakhmode, Joint Director, Groundwater Surveys and Development Agency, Government of
Maharashtra, Pune
• Mr. Yusuf Kabir, Water, Sanitation, Hygiene (WASH) Specialist, Climate, DRR & Emergency Focal
Point, UNICEF Maharashtra
• Mr. Anand Ghodke, WASH officer, UNICEF, Mumbai, Maharashtra
• Mr. Omkar Khare, State Consultant, DISASTER management and climate change, UNICEF, Mumbai

Interns
• From Department of Geology, Fergusson College, Pune: Akanksha Raut, Gajanan Walunj,
Kamalesh Ghumatkar, Nazia Sayyed, Neha Sawant, Sarthak Mugal, Sayali Dongarwar, Smital Fulzele,
Tasneem Tinwala and Travya Vaishnavi
• From Department of Environmental Science, SPPU, Pune: Vaibhav Belhekar (MSc dissertation
student intern with ACWADAM)

ACWADAM Support Team: Jairaj Rajguru, Mukesh Patil, Rucha Deshmukh, Siddharth
Patil, Manoj Bhagwat, Pratik Korde (Mission Groundwater), Divyanshu Pawar, MSc
dissertation intern (Environmental Science, MIT College)

Citation: ACWADAM, 2022. Landslides of Western Maharashtra: rapid appraisal for developing
improved preparedness and early warning systems for landslides in Western Maharashtra and Konkan
Regions, Maharashtra State. Tech. Report No. ACWA/Hydro/2022/H120

Supported by: UNICEF, Mumbai field office

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Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ......................................................................................................... 6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................... 8
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 11
THE AREA SELECTED FOR RAPID APPRAISAL ............................................................ 13
METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................. 16
Literature review .................................................................................................................. 16
Landslide inventory ............................................................................................................. 17
Field survey and data collection .......................................................................................... 18
Drone survey ........................................................................................................................ 19
Analysis of data.................................................................................................................... 21
SALIENT FIELD OBSERVATIONS ..................................................................................... 22
Location ............................................................................................................................... 23
Dimensions of landslides ..................................................................................................... 23
Fractures and direction of slide ............................................................................................ 27
Regional Geological structure: ............................................................................................ 30
Slope geometry: ................................................................................................................... 30
Impact of rainfall.................................................................................................................. 31
The role of water .................................................................................................................. 32
Forest and ecological factors ............................................................................................... 40
Engineering aspects ............................................................................................................. 42
Drone Survey: ...................................................................................................................... 43
Key learnings from Rapid assessment and Landslide inventory: ........................................ 44
THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL: GENERIC MODEL (BASED ON THE RAPID
ASSESSMENT):...................................................................................................................... 46
SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT: A FRAMEWORK FOR MAPPING
VULNERABILITIES AND BUILDING RESILIENCE ........................................................ 48
DEVELOPING AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR LANDSLIDES............................ 61
WAY FORWARD ................................................................................................................... 66
WORKSHOP REPORTS ........................................................................................................ 70
GLOSSARY ............................................................................................................................ 72
ANNEXURES ......................................................................................................................... 74
REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 74

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4
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We would like to acknowledge the leadership and support extended by Er. Aseem Kumar
Gupta, Principal Secretary, Disaster Management, Relief and Rehabilitation Department and
administrative support from his office. We would also like to thank Mr. Shekhar Singh,
Collector Satara, for discussions during the landslide study as well as for anchoring the first
workshop where we presented our draft report at Pachgani, Satara. We thank all the participants
who came to Pachgani and contributed towards improving the draft through various inputs and
discussions. We also thank Dr. Mahendra Kalyankar, Collector, Raigad district who gave us a
patient ear while sharing our experiences in landslide mapping at his office during the early
stages of the study.

We would like to thank Ms. Ulka Mahajan, Mr. Ganesh Khatu, Mr. Sandesh Kulkarni, and Mr.
Rajesh Kulkarni from Mahad for helping us during this landslide study. Ms. Mahajan and her
colleagues not only accompanied us during the field visits but also helped in coordinating these
visits. She also helped mobilise community members who helped the ACWADAM team during
this study. Mr. Santosh Bhise from Mohotchi Bhisewadi, along with other community members
provided us continuing support during our studies in and around Mahad.

We would like to thank Dr. Bharat Patankar who put us in touch with Mr. Sachin Kadam who
provided us immense help during our inventories and surveys in locations around
Koyananagar. Similarly, Mr. Chimaji Yadav from Pachgani helped during surveys in Wai
taluka, while Mr. Abhijit Kalbhor helped us out with reaching the villagers and villages in the
landslide affected areas in the neighbourhood of Patan. It was a daunting task to visit many
landslide locations. Not only did these three help us access landslide sites, but they also
facilitated meetings with the community members from the landslide affected areas. We are
also thankful to Mr. Yogesh Chavan from OIKOS who helped us in the mapping of landslides
in Velhe taluka, Pune.

While our team focused on studies in the three districts of Satara, Raigad, and Pune, we also
mapped a few of the landslides near Chiplun in Ratnagiri district. Mr. Rankan Indulkar and
Mr. Sameer Chikate helped us with our early surveys there. We are grateful for the help they
extended to our teams.

We are eternally grateful to all the villagers who took out time and helped us during the field
visits.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
An exponential rise in the occurrence of landslides in Western Maharashtra is being reported
from various quarters. A combined effect of a changing climate, temporal, and spatial
variabilities in precipitation along with changes in land use and land cover are factors that are
possibly contributing to the susceptibility of slope failure during the monsoon season. What is
worrying is the vulnerability of many rural habitations to such failure and the need to develop
both, a vulnerability framework, and an early warning system to deal with potential incidents
of landslides in Western Maharashtra.

This report is the culmination of a rapid appraisal conducted in six talukas from Pune, Satara
and Raigad districts of the regions of Western Maharashtra and Konkan. Eighty-four landslides
were inventoried and surveyed in detail from Bhor and Velhe talukas in Pune district,
Mahabaleshwar and Patan talukas in Satara district, and Mahad and Poladpur talukas in Raigad
district over three months. In addition, ACWADAM, with its own extra effort also studied the
landslides in Chiplun area of Ratnagiri district, which has also been included in this report.
The surveyed landslides represented a randomly drawn sample taken after reconnaissance of a
larger set of nearly five hundred landslides from five districts of Western Maharashtra. Most
of these landslides were within the elevation range of 300 to 1400 m above mean sea level
(MSL), although a few were also found at lower elevations, especially in the Mahad taluka that
is close to the coast. The survey aimed at understanding landslides in the context of the
mechanisms of slope failure, causative factors, triggers of failure and the movement of material
following the failure.

The methodology for the rapid assessment involved review of secondary data and literature,
development of landslide inventory format, conducting field survey for data collection, rainfall
analysis – by mainly using secondary data-sets - and a drone survey at a sample location. A
month’s effort was required for analysing data and preparing the first draft of this report. A
number of factors affecting landslides such as rainfall, slopes, aspects, drainage, geology,
hydrogeology, ecology and engineering along with social aspects (especially during the field
work on landslides that had affected habitations) were considered for the study.

The morphology of the landslides that included measurements of the length and width of the
scar, and the depth of excavation based on observations of the land abutting against the
landslide that is not subjected to failure. Another important aspect was measuring the distance
of debris transport using a combination of field surveys and satellite imageries. The
morphology of the landslides – even within the limited sample – revealed high variability.
Some slides were small, while others were wide and short (length of material moved). A few
others showed narrow, but long geometries while there were some that were wide and long.
The depth of the excavation at the landslide scar was also found to be variable. The average
lengths of the landslide scarps which ranged from 2 m to 600 m, across the 84 landslides was
57.4 m. The width of the scarp varied between 2 m and 200 m with an average of 30.3 m in the
database. However, the length and width of scarps was not always proportionate to each other.
The most significant feature, however, was that in comparison with the scarp volumes, the
debris volume of the inventoried landslides was three times larger thereby causing significant
damage and varied from 1.86 million cubic metres (106 m3) to 70 m3 with an average value of
95.8 thousand cubic metres (103 m3). No sector-wise variance was observed in the debris
volumes.

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The geological context for the landslides is provided by a bedrock geology of alternating
vesicular – amygdaloidal basalts (VAB) that weather deeply and show sheet joints and the
compact basalts (CB) that are largely dense, poorly weathered, but when jointed tend to show
sub-vertical joints. More than 60 percent of the landslides occurred at the contact between VAB
and CB. The failure of the overlying CB in most of these cases was caused due to the removal
and or instability of the underlying VAB with its highly saturated nature following intense rains
during the critical period. Slope failures in an additional 20 percent cases occurred where the
bedrock was traversed by fracture zones of preferred orientation, depending upon the region,
rendering it highly porous and permeable in nature. Enhanced pore pressures resulting from
excess rain-fed saturation must have been a significant factor enabling the destabilisation of
the slope in such cases.

The role of water in the form of precipitation, runoff, soil-water and groundwater was obvious
in all the landslides that were studied across the three districts. The incessant, high intensity
rainfall in most locations over a period of a fortnight, followed by extremely high-intensity rain
(as high as nearly 100 mm over 5 hours), was the main triggering factor for the landslides. The
role of water can be perceived in three different forms – the water flux leading to the actual
event, the build-up of pore-pressure on account of the sustained soil saturation of normally
well-drained soils, the rise in the shallow groundwater level in the regolith aquifer (especially
in the VABs at the contact zone with the upper CB) and the subsequent transport of the slide
due to large volumes of overland flow and surface runoff. The potential flux of incoming water
to the subsurface far exceeded the degree of outflux in the form of sub-surface drainage leading
to the buildup of large volumes of saturated pore-space, in turn, leading to great pore-pressures
acting at the slopes. A common indicator reported was the presence of natural springs in the
vicinity of many landslides, with an increase in the discharge of existing springs and the
temporary sprouting of many springs in the neighbourhood of the landslide, prior to the
landslide event. All landslides reported the development of a sustained seepage face at the
location of the actual failure zone on account of the water table in the shallow regolith aquifer
at the contact of the CB and VAB and the sustained saturation of the overlying soil.
A large percentage of the landslides were found to be on slopes that were forested and
especially dominated by old growth trees, although there were other types of land cover that
characterised some of the landslides. While the forest cover itself normally acts as a buffer
against high runoff, the combination of different water fluxes, wind and the tall, old-growth
part of the forest was found to trigger slope failures.

Many landslide scarps were observed above roads and culverts through which drainage pipes
were laid. Moreover, damage to public infrastructure such as roads, pipelines for draining
water, culverts was recorded at many of the locations, indicating the need for improved
engineering and additional fail-safe mechanisms in landslide susceptible zones. A combination
of factors defined the susceptibility of landslides in the study region. These included elevation,
slope, aspect (direction of slope), natural drainage, contact between the two types of basalt, the
thickness of the regolith, incipient lateritisation in the soil and the regolith, soil thickness,
ecology, and rainfall (trends, anticedence and intensity). A strong correlation was found during
the quick map-based analyses of vulnerability stemming from the hydrogeomorphic aspects
(from a GIS map analysis) and the location of the landslides on such maps. Most landslides
were recorded within a slope range of 16° to 45°, with the largest set being within the 21° to
45° range. Similarly, most slides were located on slopes with aspects in the arc from NW to
SE, while a strong correlation was recorded between the regional fracture zones, the alignment
of the slope escarpment and the fracture-controlled drainage from all the six talukas. The trends

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and directions, though, were different for different talukas. All the landslides were located in
areas with a high density of natural springs.

Long-term efforts to sharpen the susceptibility analyses and vulnerability zonation are
necessary for the larger region of Western Maharashtra based on the approach followed in the
rapid appraisal. At the same time, an early warning system through the measurement of five
key parameters is suggested to be put in place, at least on a pilot basis, before the onset of
monsoon during 2022. These measurement parameters are:
• Slope movement / soil creep
• Rainfall
• Spring discharge
• Soil piezometric levels (water levels during soil saturation)
• Shallow groundwater levels

These factors, through the establishment of basic measurement systems, including a


measurement protocol are suggested as the first step in developing the early warning system
on landslides in the landslide prone region of Western Maharashtra and the Konkan. The way
forward (in summary) involves setting up an early warning system monitoring parameters on
a pilot basis and interim development of vulnerability zones based on factors such as
susceptibility and clusters of habitations. Long-term efforts need to involve integrating
measurement and mapping-based experiences from the short and interim efforts into a long-
term plan that feeds into robust mechanisms for preparedness and response to landslide events
in the region.

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INTRODUCTION

The Geological Survey of India has notified an area of nearly 90,000 km2 of the Western Ghats
and the Konkan hills (uplands) in Western Maharashtra as ‘landslide prone’1. This means
almost 30 percent of the State of Maharashtra is landslide prone. The state government and
district administration have responded to these events – that occur in a matter of few minutes
– on an emergency mode, often as post-facto disaster relief. The emerging need is therefore to
have a robust plan for an Early Warning System (EWS) to mitigate the loss life, livelihoods,
and property.

Climate change compounded with extreme climate events and rapid onset of disasters is having
catastrophic impacts on communities and geographies around the world. India is the seventh-
most vulnerable country with respect to climate extremes (Germanwatch 2020) and as per the
CEEW report 2021, Assam, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are the top three climate variable
states in the country. The frequency of hydro-met disasters like cyclones, flash floods, cloud
bursts, landslides and droughts in India has increased manifolds during the last 15 years. The
districts in Western Maharashtra have witnessed not less than 23 major landslide events in the
past decade as per available records, including the Raigad landslides of 2005 and the Malin
landslide of 2014. These have claimed more than 500 lives, led to disruption of communication
networks and resulted in enormous property damage worth several hundreds of crores as
reported from time to time by the State Emergency Operation Centre. The events in late July
2021 were perhaps the most widespread; as recorded by the respective district administrations
of Mumbai, Pune, Satara, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg. A quick reconnaissance indicated
that there were innumerable small and large landslides on 22nd and 23rd July 2021 in a short
span of 14 hours2 across five districts of Raigad, Ratnagiri, Kolhapur, Satara, and Pune. With
an aim of estimating the density of these events, the ACWADAM field visits measured the
number of events in random sample areas (Table 1). This sample set of observations yielded
an average density of 5 events per square kilometre.

Visible count in Density in


Sr.
Geographic section sampled (district name in parenthesis) number / area number per
no.
covered km2
Mohot – Rupavali section (Mahad taluka, Mahad
1. 160 / 20 km2 8
district)
2. Koyna damsite (Patan taluka, Satara district 80 / 20 km2 4
3. Varandha ghat section (Bhor taluka, Pune district) 140 / 25 km2 5
4. Jor section (Wai, Satara district) 12 / 4.39 km2 3
Kumbharli-Dhangarwadi section (parts of Ratnagiri
5. 3 / 0.66 km2 5
district)
2
6. Shirkoli (Panshet) section Velhe taluka (Pune district) 3 / 0.6 km 5
Average density of landslides in the region (based on the above estimates) 5 per km2
Table 1: Density of landslides estimated in four sections during reconnaissance by
ACWADAM team from the study areas

If this average value is extrapolated to the hilly areas of the five districts, the number may be
close to 5000. Adding other districts like Sindhudurg, Thane, Palghar and Nashik, (~ 2000
km2) that reported landslides during 22 – 23 July 2021, the number of large and small events

1
https://www.gsi.gov.in/webcenter/portal/OCBIS/pageGeoInfo/pageLANDSLIDEHAZRD?_afrLoop=28323885273278420
&_adf.ctrl-state=dwmc0fh1t_1#!%40%40%3F_afrLoop%3D28323885273278420%26_adf.ctrl-state%3Ddwmc0fh1t_5
2 As recorded by the State Emergency Operations Centre on the said dates.

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will be in the magnitude of 10,000 in about 14 – 16 hours. This scary number must surely catch
the attention of policy makers in recognising landslides as a potential risk in the Western
Ghats of Maharashtra, particularly under the Disaster Management Preparedness and
Adaptation Programme.

Prima facie, available statistical data (sourced from the Geological Survey of India & District
Administrations) shows an exponential rise in the number of landslide events in the past few
decades (Fig. 1 and 2). If this is so, what are the causes for this increase in landslide events -
Anthropogenic or Natural? Understanding the same on the background of causes of landslides
in the first place will be the logical way forward towards the early warning system (EWS),
preparedness and adaptation of this calamity.

Figure 1: The exponential rise in the order of magnitude increase in landslide over the last three decades (as
reported by stakeholders from across three districts during the current study) – numbers not precise and
expressed in order of magnitude-– X axis represents decadal time and Y axis the frequency of landslides

Figure 2: The rise in the studies initiated by GSI on landslides in Maharashtra is a likely reflection of the
increase in the occurrence of landslides in Western Maharashtra during the last three decades (GSI, 2018)

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THE AREA SELECTED FOR RAPID APPRAISAL
Mapping the vulnerability of regions to landslides is a first, but crucial step in setting up a risk-
mitigation and adaptation strategy that also includes an early warning system. Vulnerability
assessment is a useful adaptation planning tool for mitigating climate risks (IPCC 2014). The
mapping of areas that are vulnerable to landslides is quite important, given the context of rapid
changes in climate, especially patterns of rainfall, number of rainy days, a rapidly changing
landscape (land-use and land-cover changes), changes in conditions in the soil, natural
geological and geomorphological processes, degrees of saturation and increasing human
habitations in mountain habitats. In addition, the patterns of surface water behaviour – flows
and stocks – also need to be studied, particularly from the point of view of the extent of various
controls on the flow of water – slope, fractures in the underlying rock and the patterns of
precipitation.

A rapid appraisal was thus carried out along the slopes of the western ghats across three districts
of western Maharashtra and Konkan region to understand these processes. ACWADAM on
behest of UNICEF, Maharashtra selected six blocks - Bhor and Velhe from Pune district,
Mahabaleshwar & Patan from Satara district and Mahad & Poladpur from Raigad district
respectively for the study. The map below shows the location of the study area on Google Earth
imagery.

Figure 3: Location of selected blocks for the rapid assessment

The elevation of the assessment areas ranges from 300 m in Mahad to 1350 m above msl in
Mahabaleshwar. All these blocks fall in the eastern or western flank of the Western ghats where
maximum landslides occurred in 2021. Mahad and Poladpur fall in Savitri River basin while
Mahabaleshwar and Patan fall in Krishna River basin. Velhe and Bhor fall in Bhima River
basin, which eventually is part of larger Krishna basin. A random sample of landslides was

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selected for the present assessment from the landslide affected areas of western Maharashtra
and Konkan.

This report enumerates the observations during this rapid appraisal. The conclusions drawn are
based on the analysis of all the data collected, and within the scientific framework of slope
failure mechanisms, causative factors, triggers, and movement of material during the
landslides. The recommendations of the report are based on this analysis and must be read as
indicative of various factors that require a rigorous study to follow, to validate and refine the
conclusions drawn. Although largely indicative, the conclusions of this report are grounded in
field data and not in some hypothetical assumptions and theoretical projections.

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METHODOLOGY

The methodology for the rapid assessment involved review of secondary data and literature,
development of landslide inventory format, conducting field survey for data collection, rainfall
analysis – mainly using secondary datasets and a drone survey at a sample location. At the
same time, the study involved a brief background discussion regarding the geology of the
Deccan Volcanic Province, particularly with respect to the lithological and structural factors of
the basalt lavas, their weathering and fracturing patterns, the key pedological (soil) and regolith
features in the region and a hydrogeological description of the sub-surface regolith aquifer
systems constituted by the peculiar geological features of the region. A short section on the
importance of ecological factors from the region is also enumerated. Each of these sections
also has references to specific factors, as appropriate, that are relevant to the occurrence of
landslides in the region.

Literatur Landslide Drone Analysis Preparation


Field visit
e review inventory survey of data of report

Literature review
Worldwide studies on landslides (causative mechanisms and impacts) have been well
summarised in the technical reports and are accessible from the websites of British Geological
Survey and U.S. Geological Survey. These reports and numerous other scientific studies have
formed the foundation of this study. Geological Survey of India is conducting a study on
landslides in Maharashtra for the last 18 years; and has compiled an inventory of the landslides
studied by them (GSI, 2018). They list 10 different classes of landslides in Western
Maharashtra (Figure 4)). It is evident that debris (representing a mixture of rock, regolith and
soil) movement represents a major proportion (nearly 81 percent) of slope failures, while rock,
soil and mud movement account for the remaining landslides. Given the significant capping of
red soils, and regolith capping the bedrock basalts in this terrain (particularly in Konkan region
and along the crest of the Western Ghat escarpment), this is not surprising. The timing of these
slope failures recorded by GSI (between June and September: corresponding to the monsoon
months) highlights the role of significant amounts of water in the occurrence of landslides in
this terrain.

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Figure 4: Frequency of different types of landslides in Maharashtra (based on GSI, 2018 database)

The Groundwater Surveys and Development Agency (GSDA) has also conducted studies on
landslides and their susceptibility, especially in the districts of Raigad, Satara, Ratnagiri and
Sindhudurg (GSDA, District Information Reports3). During the inception workshop of this
project, GSDA also endorsed that water appears to play a key role in slope failures in this
region and provided the following key observations (pers. comm, GSDA, October 2021)
recorded by them:

• Increase in sediment load – soil, sand, gravel and boulders (debris) – as part of stream
and river flows in the vicinity of the landslide
• Increase in turbidity of spring discharge
• Widening of the mouths of springs, increased spring discharge
• Sudden, often instantaneous flow of water into houses
• Fissures in the ground – especially on slopes, in the walls of homes and on roads
• Land subsidence
• Bending of electricity poles and trees

ACWADAM team used this available information for preparation of a landslide inventory for
collecting primary data in the six talukas of the three districts.

Landslide inventory
The Geological Survey of India’s work on landslides (GSI, 2018) provides a solid template to
build further understanding of the hydrological factors involved in landslides in Western
Maharashtra. Hence, a few of the aspects that were included in the current rapid appraisal based
on the above background and keeping in mind the role that water played at various points in
time before the landslide was triggered, are listed below:

3
https://gsda.maharashtra.gov.in/english/index.php/District_info

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• Location of landslide
• The dimensions of landslide
• Geological factors like fractures, weathering pattern
• The land use and land cover
• Drainage pattern
• Presence of spring in the vicinity
• Damage caused to life and property

A detailed landslide inventory form was developed taking into consideration all the above-
mentioned factors. The format with the details, is given as Annexure 1. The data and
information generated through the inventory helped in building an understanding of the process
of landslides in the region.

Field survey and data collection


The ACWADAM team, along with the experts and students from the Geology Department of
Fergusson College, Pune, covered six blocks from Pune (Bhor and Velhe), Satara
(Mahabaleshwar & Patan) and Raigad (Mahad and Poladpur) districts. In addition,
observations were also made by the team in the Ratnagiri (Chiplun) and Kolhapur (Bawda and
Ajra) districts. The landslides in 8 blocks were subjected to detailed field measurements, while
numerous other landslides were marked along the roadside using GPS locations. While doing
the survey, care was taken to ensure that the captured landslide was of recent origin (within the
last 6 months) based on observations such as freshness of the debris, absence of vegetal cover
on the debris, damage of infrastructural elements like roads, network cables, etc. It may not be
possible to pinpoint that all the GPS-marked landslides occurred during the (22 – 23) July 2021
event, but they are certainly the ones that occurred during the monsoon season of 2021. The
ones subjected to detailed field measurements were those that occurred during the July event.
Field measurements included those of orientation (using the Brunton Compass) and dimension
(using tape measures) on the location that was captured using GPS instruments.

The GPS marked landslides provided a perspective on the intensity and distribution frequency
of the slope failures occurring within one season (as enumerated in Table 1). For example, the
Varandha Ghat section within Bhor taluka had 140 instances of slope failures of variable
dimensions, while the Mohot – Rupavali section in Mahad taluka had nearly 160 events. They
provided a perspective on the density of these events along the hill slopes. It is significant that
the slope failures had maximum density close to the Western Ghats in the Raigad (Varandha
Ghat) and Ratnagiri (Kumbharli Ghat) and were significantly lesser in density in Satara (Wai
Ghat) section. It may be pointed out that this corresponds well with the rainfall intensity.

Of the landslides subjected to detailed measurements by the field teams (~ 100 in number), the
available data of 84 landslides was complete in all respects. Access to all parts of the landslide
was a limitation in undertaking the actual measurements. Only those with complete data sets
are therefore used in the analysis enumerated below. The locations of these landslides are
shown in the Figure 5. The listing of the data collected for these inventoried landslides are
given in Annexure 1.

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Figure 5: Locations of inventoried landslides on Google Earth Imagery

The details of all these inventoried landslides are given in Annexure 2. The team analysed this
data in detail and the observations are shared in different sections of the report.

Drone survey
A drone survey helps in the accurate mapping of an area. GEOEPC, a New Delhi based
company conducted this survey over 30 km2 area near Guteghar, Patan. The area of interest
was drawn using Google Earth and the KMZ file was provided to GeoEPC by ACWADAM to
conduct the feasibility and arrive at the technical parameters as well as the cost estimates.

Figure 6 showing area of interest for the drone survey

19
The necessary permission for the survey was obtained from the district collector, Satara.
GeoEPC team along with the ACWADAM team conducted a reconnaissance survey to identify
the take-off and landing site, as well as sites for the GCPs. Due care was taken in identifying
the take-off and landing site due to presence of windmills that have been installed above the
high-altitude ridges. Therefore, the drone flying height and the flight plan had to be such that
it was clear of all obstructions and complied with the DGCA drone rules. Aerial mapping was
done with 85 percent forward overlap and 65 percent side overlap, the imaging legs after the
flying are depicted below:

Figure 7 shows the points for which the data was captured using drone

Since the drone used is Post Processing Kinematics enabled (PPK), after the flight, the PPK fix
is computed at the site, thus ensuring that the positional accuracy is ≤ 10 cm (without GCPs).
This ensures that the output accuracy would be satisfactory after including the observed GCPs,
during the data processing stage.

Due to weather conditions, a substantial amount of haze was observed in the captured images.
Since the PPK fix was 100 percent, the GeoEPC team decided to use high-end software tools
to remove the haze and performed onsite data processing using a coarse Digital Elevation
Model. The results were satisfactory. The GCPs were observed using a dual-channel
Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) in static mode and the observations were
processed. The GCP observations were sub-centimeter level accurate.
Thereafter the drone data, log, GCPs were processed at Pune, which included the following
steps:

1. Feature Matching
2. Aerial Triangulation
3. Block bundle adjustments
4. Digital Surface Model generation
5. Digital Terrain Model generation
6. Orthorectification of individual images
7. Orthomosaic generation

20
Photo 1: Drone used for the survey

The Root Mean Square Error (RMS) computation was also performed to cross-check the
accuracy of processed data vis-à-vis the GCPs. The RMS error was found to be within limits.
Above mentioned datasets along with the RMS computation was handed over to ACWADAM
and a presentation of data was done to the entire ACWADAM team. Thereafter, ACWADAM
provided seven AOIs for performing the volumetric analysis. The volumetric analysis was
performed on the Digital Terrain Model (bald earth).

The drone survey was used to prepare high accuracy maps. The survey helped in mapping the
landslide from the scar till the debris fan. In many instances it was challenging to reach the top
of the scar due to various factors. However, with the help of the drone, accurate measurement
of the scar was possible with (+ or- 10cm) accuracy. The drone survey was used to measure
the volume of debris moved due to landslide. ACWADAM’s short experience with the drone
survey suggests that it is an effective tool for assessing the damage caused by the landslide.
However, it has limited utility for vulnerability mapping and assessment.
ACWADAM team used this data for measurement of the volume of earth moved during the
landslides. The volumetric analysis for the seven locations is given as Annexure 3.

Analysis of data

This report is prepared based on field observations and the analysis of 84 landslides. These
observations are briefly discussed below.

21
22
SALIENT FIELD OBSERVATIONS

Location
The team collected data from 84 landslides spread over 9 blocks of four districts of western
Maharashtra and Konkan. These blocks are Bhor, Velhe, Mahad, Poladpur, Pen, Wai,
Mahabaleshwar, Patan and Chiplun. The maximum landslides were studied from Patan
followed by Chiplun and Mahad.

Figure 8: Landslides surveyed during the rapid assessment

The geographical extent of the surveyed landslides is between 17o17’N & 18o48’N and 73o12’E
& 73o 50’E. All these landslides fall in the area with elevation from 48 m to 1250 m above
msl.

Dimensions of landslides

Figure 9 (a) enumerates the terminology used in this study for various components of the
landslide. Photos 2,3 and 4 are representative pictures of the landslides depicting various
aspects as examples. Key dimensions of the inventoried landslides were measured on the
ground (see Annexure 2) including the length and width of the scar, and the depth of excavation
based on observations of the land abutting against the landslide that is not subjected to failure.
The distance of debris transport was estimated and tallied up after comparing the slope location
on Google Earth.

23
Figure 9 (a): Anatomy of a landslide in Western Maharashtra showing key parameters measured during the
rapid assessment inventory and the terminology adopted

Photo 2: Morgiri landslide showing the small scar face, and the long distance of the debris
movement

24
Photo 3: Mirgaon landslide showing how the Photo 4: Mirgaon landslide scar face with
(0.9 million m3) debris has travelled across dimensions of 170 m x 150 m. Note the
almost 1 km down the steep hill slope, across stream flowing across the scarp (captured in
the road (damaging it) into the reservoir. Note Nov 2021- 3 months after the landslide) and
the unsorted mixture of rock fragments, the uprooted boulders of the bedrock.
regolith, soil and vegetal matter in the debris.

The average lengths of the landslide scarps which ranged from 2 m to 600 m, across the 84
landslides is 57.4 m. The width of the scarp varied between 2 m and 200 m with an average of
30.3 m in the database. However, the length and width of scarps was not always proportionate
to each other. For example, the Guheghar landslide had a measured length of 120 m but a width
of only 10 m, while Rictoli 1 had a length of 6 m and width of 25 m. The length to width ratio
varied from 0.04 (Karanje) to 32 (Shidrukwadi) in the measured landslides.

Figure 10 gives the distribution of the length and width of scarps in the landslides studied. Note
that the length of scarp shows a wide distribution in case of the Patan landslides but is very
narrow in case of the Chiplun landslides. The reason behind this variance is difficult to assess.
No such pattern can be recognised in case of the widths of the landslides.

The observed depth of excavation (based on the adjoining landscape exposures) varied between
1 m and 50 m with an average (depth of) excavation of 6.5 m across all landslides. This depth
has been used to compute the volume of excavated material (length x width x depth) which is
termed as the scar volume of the landslide.

25
Figure 10(a): Distribution of the length of scarp of Figure 10(b): Distribution of the width of scarp of
inventoried landslides. inventoried landslides.

The excavated material moves downslope (under gravity) due to loss of cohesion along the slip
surface and eventually comes to a rest once the momentum generated by the trigger of the
landslide is lost. It spreads over the downslope area occupying the zone of deposition (Fig. 9)
and often includes additional material picked up along its path of movement. It is therefore
natural that the volume of the landslide debris is larger than excavated volume. This volume is
relevant when assessing the actual damage caused by the landslide. Based on the observed
distance across which the landslides have moved (=d in Fig.9), an estimate of the debris volume
was also computed. While doing so, field observations on the maximum thickness of the debris
were used, with an assumption that across the area occupied by the debris has half the
maximum debris thickness on an average. Figure 11 gives the distribution of the computed
debris volumes in the inventoried landslides.

Figure 11: Distribution of the debris volume of inventoried landslides. Note that the volume scale (y axis) is
plotted as a logarithmic scale for the volume in m3, such that ‘1. E+01’ = 1x101 m3 and ‘1.E+06’ = 1x106 m3.

The debris volumes of the inventoried landslides varied from 1.86 million cubic metres (106
m3) to 70 m3 with an average value of 95.8 thousand cubic metres (103 m3). No sector-wise
variance was observed in the debris volumes.

In comparison with the scar volumes, the inventoried landslides suggested that the debris
volume was three times larger thereby causing significant damage (Fig. 12(a)). There is no
sector-wise variance observed in this ratio of scar: debris volumes, although some of the
landslides in the Patan (Kakanewadi), Mahad – Poladpur (Shivthar Gad, Nigade), Wai (Jor)
and Chiplun (Choravne, Tivare) displayed anomalously large ratios. In all these cases, the
depth of weathering and soil cover was significantly thick along the slopes. This aspect is
especially relevant because, with the triggering factors, the volumes displaced and the long
movement of the debris, the habitations downslope become prone to high levels of threat to life
and property, particularly under certain hydrogeomorphic situations described in the
forthcoming sections.

26
Figure 12(a): Distribution of the debris volume v/s Figure 12(b): Distribution of the debris volume
scar volumes of inventoried landslides; shows that movement to distance of movement in m3/m of
the ratio between the two is about 3:1. The root- inventoried landslides. No specific pattern is observed
mean square value of 0.79 (R2) for the best-fit line in this for the different sectors.
through the plots suggests that the database is
consistent and has no major statistical deviations.

Fractures and direction of slide

The study area lies in the Deccan Volcanic Province (DVP) which is characterised by layer-
cake stacking of basaltic lava flows (see Glossary). Broadly, two types of bedrock basalts,
namely Compact Basalts (CB) and Vesicular Amygdaloidal Basalts (VAB) alternate with each
other with variable thicknesses. Due to variations in their porosity and other physical
properties, they respond differentially to the agents of weathering and erosion. The VAB
degrade more easily and commonly host significantly thick zones of weathering as well as soil
caps, while CBs are normally devoid of soil cover. Whereas the former is relatively impervious
and homogeneous, the latter are common hosts of aquifers in the DVP terrain. These basaltic
flows and flow units are transacted by regional fracture zones that extend across tens of
kilometres (Photo 5); and dissected by cooling and exfoliation joints, both of which increase
the porosity and permeability of the bedrocks.

27
Close spaced
Fractures

Fracture zones

Photo 6: Photograph showing fractures trending E-W


seen at outcrop level.

Photo 5: Photograph of Kadvad-Tivdi road landslide


from Chiplun region showing fracture zones trending
E-W in the field. The red square marks the exposure
captured in photo6.

Table 2 below encapsulates the geological observations recorded at the scarps of the
inventoried landslides.

Nature of exposure at Frequency Additional information Most susceptible areas


the landslide scar (out of a total (summarised from details for
of 84) each of the landslides)

Contact – VAB and Higher degree of weathering, Locations over a larger


CB, red tuffaceous presence of granular material in scale to be identified in the
layer, flow top breccia 51 weathered form (intergranular medium term through
and other related ejecta openings), sub-horizontal sheet more detailed mapping
such as volcanic ash joints and presence of seepage even across all the regions
a couple of months after the keeping in mind other
landslide factors like slope ranges
and aspects

Compact basalt (CB), Jointed-fractured – largely sub- Locations over a larger


without any mention of vertical joints but also sub- scale to be identified in the
a VAB or associated 17 horizontal fractures in some cases medium term through
contact material and block jointing in a few cases; detailed mapping of
spheroidal weathering in many of regional fracture zones
these cases corresponding with slopes
under this specific class

Laterite / lateritic 2 Mentioned only at two locations (in Largely in extensively


material Mahabaleshwar taluka of Satara lateralised zones – to be
district), with one location identified through detailed
recording laterite crustal material (? mapping
duricrust)

28
Description unclear 7 Lack of description made A detailed mapping is
(the forms usually only observations inconclusive therefore necessary. The
mentioned terms like longer-term, scaling out
soil, regolith and effort must ensure a
bedrock) standardisation of the
protocol while collecting
No data 7 Data was either not recorded or data. Data collection and
there were other limitations in mapping must be preceded
access to the scar face by intensive training*

* Intensive mapping, especially in the field can be undertaken using the support of disaster management
volunteers, student interns, community volunteers and NGOs working in different areas. The mapping must be
preceded by building capacity of such individuals and organisations leading to a standard protocol of mapping
to reduce gaps in information.
Table 2: Nature of rock exposed (regolith or bedrock or a combination) in the 84 landslides – summary of
survey findings (note: VAB = vesicular-amygdaloidal basalt; CB = compact basalt)

It is evident from the landslide inventory (Annexure 1 & 2), that more than 60 percent of the
landslides occurred at the contact between VAB and CB (Figure 15 given as an example). The
failure of the overlying CB in most of these cases was caused due to the removal and or
instability of the underlying VAB with its highly saturated nature following the intense rains
during the critical period. Slope failures in an additional 20 percent cases occurred where the
bedrock was traversed by fracture zones rendering it highly porous and permeable in nature.
Enhanced pore pressures resulting from excess rain-fed saturation must have been a significant
factor enabling the destabilisation of the slope in such cases. It is likely (based on prima facie
distal observations) that 14 of the landslides where data was insufficient (see Table 1 above)
may have been from either of these two categories. Only 2 percent of the landslides (and these
were all from the Satara district) occurred in the regolith or soil, without any bedrock
contribution.

Compact Basalt

VAB

29
Photo 7: Photograph of Chorgewadi landslide from Chiplun area showing
VAB overlain by CB. Note the geologist (marked by white arrow)
standing close to the contact (yellow dotted line) for scale.

Regional Geological structure:


The landslide scar and slippage trends in the areas studied are in conjunction with the regional
zones of weakness already studied in the region. The trends of the fracture zones marked by
Kale et al (2014) viz. NW-SE, NE-SW and E-W from Chiplun and Koyna-Patan area and the
trends marked by GSI (2001) in the Raigad District Resource Map are observed in the outcrop
scale as fractures and the trends of the landslides are parallel to these trends in about 75 percent
of landslides studied. These aspects are further elaborated in the sector-wise aspects discussed
in the vulnerability section of the report.

As mentioned above, 20 percent of the inventoried landslides had their scarps occurring along
such regional fracture zones transecting the bedrock basalt. There is therefore no doubt that the
regional geological structural framework has an impact on the evolution of the slopes in
general, and thus indirectly exerts control on the location and inception of landslides in Western
Maharashtra.

Photo 8: Photograph of landslide showing scar trend parallel to rock fractures in bedrock at base of the ridge
marked by a fracture-controlled stream channel - Pophali area, Chiplun

Slope geometry:
Most studies on slope stability use slope angle and aspect (orientation) as significant factors
for assessing the vulnerability of slopes. In the present study, we have recorded landslides from
slopes with inclination of < 45° as well as steep slope failures. Significantly, in many of the
inventoried landslides, the steeper slopes adjoining the landslides (including those with
subvertical attitude) have sustained, while the landslide occurred along the gentler slopes to
near subvertical-vertical slopes.

30
Slopes on opposing faces of deep entrenched valleys (e.g., in the Shivthar ghali sector of the
Varandha Ghat section) have failed with subequal intensity, without specific orientational
preferences. Some landslides that damaged roads (and which could be measured due to access)
had corresponding slope failures on the other side of the valley in equal or larger proportions.
We therefore conclude that slope angle and orientation does not apparently have any preferred
distribution in the occurrences of landslides in Western Maharashtra.

However, the slope angles play a major role in travel and distribution of the debris material
generated from the landslide. Lower angle slopes show transport over a shorter distance but
have a wider area over which the debris is spread. Higher angle slopes show longer transport
which may occur as narrow debris flows. Hence the slopes in the region have a major control
on the depositional zone of the landslides, and in movement of the debris material and the
devastation caused at the slope-base.

Impact of rainfall
All these landslides occurred between 2 am on 22nd July 2021 and midnight of 23rd July. The
main triggering point for the landslides was reported to be heavy to extremely heavy rainfall.
The gradual and continuous rise in daily rainfall can be noticed from the first week of July
2021 onward. Hence, coming into the increased rainfall phase of 21st to 23rd July, one notices
trends indicating incessant rain over a period of at least a fortnight, a phenomenon that people
also reported to be at odds with the pattern of rainfall during the same period in earlier years
when breaks in rain spells were observed. The high intensity rainfall on 21st, 22nd and 23rd July
was noticed at all the stations that recorded daily rainfall in the six talukas. Further, it is
interesting to study the intensity of rainfall on 22nd July. The hourly rainfall data was used to
understand this. Morgiri in Patan taluka received 347.5 mm rainfall in 24 hours on 22nd July.
There was steady rainfall throughout the day, preceded by several days of consistent rainfall.
However, the intensity of rainfall jumped up between 11 am and 7 pm on that day. The slide
occurred at 4.30 pm when the cumulative rainfall until that moment had exceeded 220 mm in
16 hours. The incessant high intensity rainfall must have been the main triggering factor for
the slide, when the potential flux of incoming water to the subsurface far exceeded the degree
of outflux in the form of sub-surface drainage, leading to the buildup of large volumes of
saturated pore-space, in turn, leading to great pore-pressures acting at the slopes. Landslides in
Zakade and Baudhwasti which are close to Morgiri, were triggered at around the same time.
Figure below shows the distribution of rainfall over 24 hours in Morgiri.

31
Figure 13: The distribution of rainfall over 24 hours in Morgiri on 22 nd July 2021

Similarly, in Mahad the landslides in Mohot, Sutarwadi, Nigade and Sakhar triggered in the
early morning between 2 am to 8 am. The Birwadi rain gauge station shows that the intensity
of rainfall was maximum between midnight and 4 am, with over 90 mm of rainfall in a matter
of four hours.

Figure 14 shows the distribution of rainfall over 24 hours in Birwadi on 22 nd July 2021

Similar observations were recorded in Bhor, Velhe, Mahabaleshwar, Poladpur and Chiplun. In
all the landslide areas, landslides were triggered after 70 mm rainfall within 5-6 hours prior to
the landslide event.

The role of water


The role of water in the form of precipitation, runoff, soil-water and groundwater was obvious
in all the landslides that were studied across the three districts. An indicator of this was

32
observed in the form of large volumes of landslide debris transported over long distances in
many locations. Without the multiple roles of water, such transport is improbable. Figure 15 (a
and b). show how the topographic profile changes on account of removal of material (a) and
deposition of material in the landslide area (b). The values of volume of material transported
per unit length are variable over four orders of magnitude (Figure 12B). The landslides in Patan,
Mahad and Poladpur regions show the highest values of material transported, followed by the
slides in Mahabaleshwar and Velhe. The landslides in Chiplun showed a lower range, which
could indicate that the material may have moved much longer distances in Chiplun than in the
other locations, possibly due to the dual action of the flood and landslide events at the location
of the slides surveyed. The water fluxes before and after the landslide events clearly indicate
the importance of understanding water behaviour in the development of the vulnerabilities of
different regions to landslides and in establishing early warning systems in such areas.

(a) (b)
Figure 15: Schematic of plane of failure and the build-up of debris downslope (a and b). (c) Graph showing the
volume movement per unit length of the landslide for all the 84 slides where detailed surveys were conducted

The occurrence of shallow groundwater along slopes in Western Maharashtra is a function of


the degree of weathering and fracturing of the underlying basalt units. The soil-regolith-
bedrock interface is quite important in this context. The soil-regolith-bedrock4 interface was
noted in the surveyed landslides to ascertain the nature of the exposure at the landslide scar,
along which the overlying material that has moved downslope. Figure 16 (a) shows a
generalised vertical section of the earth with the three parts – soil, regolith (largely weathered
and fractured rock) and bedrock (weakly to poorly jointed, often dense, massive rock), along
with other details of the subsurface. Figure 16(b) shows the frequencies of the categories of
exposures at the scar for 84 landslides (data for one landslide was not available in the survey
sheet). Except for 8 locations, all other locations show that the bedrock is not completely
exposed after the slide. Seventy of the landslide scars show the presence of exposed regolith,

4
Soil is the uppermost layer of unconsolidated material that includes mineral grains, organic matter, living organisms and
pore space; in some ways, it symbolises the final stage in the weathering of underlying rocks
Regolith denotes that portion of the rock (overlying the bedrock) that tends to be weathered, fractured, broken down into
fragments of various sizes; some portion of the overlying soil may also find its way into the regolithic zone
Bedrock here denotes the solid, unweathered, unjointed rock in the earth’s subsurface; it may be exposed at the surface in a
few places in the form of rock outcrops

33
indicating that in most slides, the impermeable bedrock (dense, massive, largely unjointed
basalt) is not exposed, clearly suggesting that the plane of separation was within the upper
regolithic zone, in turn, providing a strong indication of a change in the lithology within
this weathered – fractured zone of the basalt rocks below the surface of the ground. In
other words, against the conventional belief of failure at the soil-bedrock interface, landslides
in the region will be better understood, mapped, and monitored if the combination of
lithological and hydrological components is added to such understanding. This will enable a
sharper understanding of susceptibility to natural and anthropogenic settings.
EXPOSURE AT SCAR (Out of 83 Landslides)

Soil,Regolith,Bedrock 43

Soil,Regolith 17

Bedrock 8

Regolith,Bedrock 7

Soil,Bedrock 5

Regolith 3

Soil 1

Frequency

Figure 16: (a) A generalised section showing soil, regolith and bedrock (other elements of the subsurface such as
the water table, the unsaturated zone (vadose zone) and the saturated zone are also depicted). (b) Frequency of the
exposure at the scar of the landslides based on the three zones – soil, regolith and bedrock

Preliminary observations and discussions with communities in landslide zones revealed


increase in spring discharge for certain periods preceding landslides. While this aspect
needs to be confirmed, it was ubiquitous in reports from most of the surveyed landslide sites.
It also provides an impetus to developing an improved understanding of the subsurface
saturation, rates of exfiltration and infiltration and the hydraulic pore pressures within a
supersaturated system preceding the landslide. In this context, Troncone et al., (2020) state,
“Landslides often occur after long rainy periods due to changes in pore-water pressure with the
associated decrease in effective stress causing a deformation process within the slope (during
the pre-failure phase) which could trigger a landslide owing to the complete development of a
shear surface within the slope (failure)”.
Figure 17 depicts conditions during: (a) a normal period of rains – intermittent heavy and light
showers with dry spells alternating with rain spells – and (b) the abnormal rains preceding the
landslides of 22nd and 23rd July. Under normal conditions of precipitation, in the permeable
soils that characterise Western Maharashtra and the Konkan region, both infiltration to soils
and drainage from soils –into the regolith (aquifer system) below or as interflow to seepages
along the surfaces downstream or as evapotranspiration – is significant and quick.
Under anomalous conditions, preceding the landslides, especially during the period of about
24 hours between 22nd and 23rd July, soil-water pore pressures were greatly enhanced. An
increase in soil-water pressure is a result of three factors that result on account of the
phenomenon of high intensity, sustained rainfall that defined the pattern of precipitation

34
preceding and during the thousands of landslide events of July 2021. These three factors
are: infiltration excess, saturation excess and sustained overland flow. When rainfall intensities
exceed soil infiltration capacities (and in red, oxidized soils, rainfall intensities must be
anomalously high for this to happen), the unabsorbed water runs off downslope resulting in
‘infiltration excess overland flow’ (Soliman et al., 1998). Such an infiltration excess overland
flow is not exceptional during normal periods of rainfall in the landslide prone districts of
Maharashtra. Soliman et al. (1998) further state that in forested and vegetated areas, infiltration
rates are even higher because of the high hydraulic conductivity of the forest litter layer, good
soil aggregate structure and presence of macropore channels formed by roots and soil faunal
activity, and where transmissive soils are underlain by impermeable subsoil, a perched water
table rises to the surface resulting in saturated overland flow during prolonged periods of storm
rainfall.

(a) (b)
Figure 17: Conceptualising soil-water pressure through a comparison between dry spells during the rainy
seasons (a) and a high-intensity prolonged rain-spell (such as the one leading to the 22nd-23rd July period (b),
showing infiltration excess, saturation excess and sustained overland flow as a buildup to pore pressure
thresholds

In all the landslide sites surveyed, a layer (of at least 4 to 5 m below the soil) of regolith was
observed, a layer capable of holding and transmitting groundwater (Figure 19b). Given the
large flux of rainwater during a short period of time and the ‘supersaturated’ condition in the
shallow subsurface, it is not surprising that the soil-water pore pressures were greatly enhanced.
The anomalously long high-intensity rainfall spells generated the following conditions
concurrently over large regions of the three districts:
1. Overland flow (apart from the direct runoff in stream channels) on the ground surface
– many local observations alluded to the fact that there was a continuous overland flow
on the surface of the ground over large areas during periods leading to the landslide
events
2. Infiltration excess overland flow (due to complete saturation of soils by infiltrating
rainwater)
3. Saturation excess overland flow (due to a rise in the water table within the regolith
aquifer system), also leading to an upward flux in the soil zone

35
4. A consequent anomalous rise in the pore pressure of soil-water5, that tends to act
perpendicular at major boundaries – the slope boundary becomes the most vulnerable
of the boundaries, the other being the boundary with the regolith, which is not
vulnerable to pressures as it is a transitionary interface)
The high relief of the areas, the anomalous precipitation and the shallow sub-surface system,
particularly at the contact of basalt units lead to the rapid rise in the groundwater table, which,
in turn, often merges with the soil-water system above, leading to the development of seepage
faces along slopes (Figure 18 A and B). While such a rise is transient (temporary) in nature,
the consistently heavy and very high intensity rainfall over about 24 hours on 22nd and 23rd July
2021 led to prolonged maintenance of a seepage face in certain sections of the slope, based on
all the previous discussion.

Porous and permeable layer


Long seepage faces along slopes
(aquifer) with transient rise in the water table
Layer with limited porosity and poor
permeability

(A)

(B)
Figure 18: (A) Development of a seepage face along the slope due to a rise in the water table from the base of
the aquifer through a couple of metres leading to long seepage faces along the slope. (B) The rise in the water
table along the slope during normal rain spells (a) and under supersaturated conditions during prolonged
intensive rain spells (b)

5
Within the fluid, pressure acts in all directions, but against a boundary, it acts perpendicularly (to the
boundary) (Chow (editor-in-chief), 1964)

36
Figure 18 illustrates this in a simple form as a rise in the water table that is often along the
entire section of a slope. Under normal conditions, the groundwater table, with its hydraulic
gradient, intersects the slope at the base of the VAB or within the jointed section of the CB
below, giving rise to ‘contact springs’6 – Figure 18(a). In such conditions, a seepage line, along
the contour that marks the contact between the VAB, and CB is developed. However, during
periods of super-saturation, the water table rises, and an entire seepage face is developed along
the slope from the higher elevation of the water table that now intersects the slope above and
below which the slope remains saturated. Hence, the seepage face discharges groundwater but
also leads to the saturation of the overlying soil layer, building sufficient pore-pressure within
the sub-surface to overcome different stresses, leading to slope failure. Further, a classification
of the 84 landslides based on the description of the scar exposure in the type and nature of the
basalt revealed that most of the exposures showed up the contact between a vesicular-
amygdaloidal basalt and a jointed compact basalt. (Refer table 2)
In many scars and some where a detailed survey was conducted by the authors of the report
themselves (apart from what the student interns recorded), the exposure showed both the
contacts, the above one between an upper jointed CB and a lower VAB (the VAB capped by
the red layer, which also marks the contact vividly) and the contact between the VAB and the
underlying jointed / fractured CB. Some 20% of the slides recorded a CB at the scar, often
marked by close-spaced fractures corresponding to regional (tectonic) fracture zones. But 17%
of the survey included data that was either not taken or was inconclusive. Hence, the percentage
of scar exposures with the contact could be higher, even as much as 80%.
To delve deeper into the role of water at the landslide sites, the survey included five focused
questions regarding various elements of water behaviour at the landslide sites. These were:
1. The presence / absence of streams in the immediate vicinity of the landslide
2. Seepages along fractures and joints at and in the neighbourhood of the landside site
3. Noticeable discharge from the debris of the landslide
4. The presence/ absence of springs at the landslide site and in its immediate
neighbourhood
5. The presence / absence of spring discharge at the landslide scar
The results of these five questions are presented in the form of pie-charts below (Figure 19 – a
to e). The inferences are summarised as the following bullet points:
• The presence of streams and discharge at the landslide debris was noticed in at least
half the surveyed locations (Figure 19 - d and e). In most cases, the distal sections of
the landslide were found to have extended along stream channels, with some ending up
in rivers or even a large reservoir.
• Seepages along joints and fractures were noted in half the landslide locations (Figure
19 – e) although it is likely that they were present in a few more cases, but not recorded.

6
Shreshta et al., 2018 define contact springs as, “springs that emerge at places where relatively permeable rocks
overlie rocks of low permeability.”

37
• In more than half the landslide locations, springs were noticed in the immediate vicinity
of the landslide scar; only 37% sites were recorded where there were no springs (Figure
19 – a).
• However, the most important observation was that 65% of the locations indicated that
there was no discharge from the landslide scar, some three months after the event
(Figure 19 – b), implying that the saturated material at the face of the slope had moved
downslope from its in-situ position where it was earlier able to retain soil moisture and
a certain level of aquifer saturation feeding water into potential springs.
• In most site locations, residents narrated that the slope on which the landslide event
occurred had a number of spring discharges before the landslide and many of these
springs showed an anomalous increase in discharge prior to the landslide event. In
locations like Buddhavasti of Dhokavale village in Patan taluka (Satara district), the
residents reported sprouting of new springs over a few hours or even a day prior to the
landslide.

(b)
(a)

(c) (d) (e)


Figure 19: Pie charts developed from the data collected from 84 landslide sites in response to the five focused
questions regarding various elements of water behaviour at the landslide (listed above)

38
Photo 10: Photograph showing the magnitude of
Mohot - Bhisewadi landslide along with large
volumes of water discharges from the landslide debris

Photo 9: Photograph showing the red tuffaceous


layer marking the contact between the upper CB and
underlying VAB - right at the centre of the landslide
scar at Dhokavale, Patan taluka, Satara district.

39
Forest and ecological factors

More than 60 percent landslides were observed in the forested area. Based on the observations
and the review of published research and reports, it can be stated that the presence of dense
old-growth vegetative cover on a steep slope can contribute significantly towards initiating a
landslide. This is the biological trigger for landslides, which supplements the geological and
hydrological triggers and human disturbances in the mountains.
It was observed and noted that the land cover around each of the 84 landslides can be classified
into 13 different types. Of these, three land cover types were Private Forests, Forests, Dense
Forests. The frequency count revealed 60 percent of landslides had one of these three land
cover types (See Figure 20).

Figure 20: Frequency count for type of land cover near the landslides

Most of the trees were large, tall and ‘old growth’, the dominant species being Teak, Kinjal,
Ein, Mango (among others). There was a sparse bushy cover with occasional herbs mixed
with such trees. Thickly forested patches have certain characteristics which are relevant to the
study of landslides. These characteristics are listed below:
a. A dense root mass woven into the soil. This creates a nearly homogenous mass of
root and soil. A high root density is usually recognised as assisting the slope stability
by reinforcement of the soil. However, we found that in areas with steep slopes and
shallow soil cover, the sub-surface flow of water (interflow) could lead to reduced
friction between the root mass–soil composite and the bedrock.

40
Photo 10: Exposed root system after the landslide

b. An abundance of organic matter on the soil, mainly decomposing leaf litter. The
heterogeneous organic matter is in various stages of decomposition. The leaf litter
offers resistance to the smooth flow of rainwater, and this boosts the water holding
capacity of the slope. A reduction in the run-off quantity can increase the water
saturation in the soil, which leads to increasing the weight of the root mass-soil
composite.
c. As there is a dense canopy cover, the trees in old-growth forests grow tall to catch
the sunlight. The tall trees are exposed to the high-intensity winds that accompany
intense rainfall. Changing wind speeds over a long period induces repeated
oscillations in the trees and the wind energy can be transmitted to the roots.
d. The old-growth tree roots can penetrate small cracks in the bedrock. As the roots
gain size, they speed up the propagation of the cracks in the bedrock and reduce the
stability of the steep slope.
e. The dense canopy cover intercepts the rain. Canopies provide a shelter in light
rains, however, during intense rainfall, the trickling drops of water turn into a steady
flow over the tree trunks. The water is sent straight to the roots of the trees and
speeds up the saturation of water in the soil.
Therefore, it can be stated that the presence of dense and tall tree cover on steep slopes must
be considered as a factor that can potentially contribute to landslides during intense rains,
especially in locations where the underlying geological and hydrogeological conditions
constitute slope failure criteria.

Building on our hypothesis, the ecological triggers to the landslide rest on the following chain
of events

41
the friction between the
Intense rainfall on the
soil and the roots falls
steep slopes is slowed
short to hold the tree in
down on the slope by
place and with geological
the dense organic
triggers can contribute to
matter covering the
triggering of landslides.
soil

The tree leaves, which are a


micro-catchment for the
rains, direct the flow towards
The high-speed winds rock the trunk and base of the
the tall tree tops, and the tree increasing the water
energy is transferred to infiltration in the soil and the
the roots weakening the weight of the soil on the
root mass. slope.

Reduction in the friction The continuing rains


at different soil-regolith- saturate the soil, and
bedrock interfaces will the regolith aquifer
then lead to the leading to a super-
movement of the entire loading of the shallow
mass. sub-surface.

Engineering aspects

One of the common observations during the landslide survey was damage to existing roads.
More than 70 percent roads were badly affected due to rock fall or mud slide. The quality of
access roads in the landslide affected areas was also poor. The damage to the property could
have reduced if the following engineering aspects were considered and corrected.
• The storm water drains along the hill slopes and roadsides were absent or were in poor
condition.
• Most of these storm water drains were unlined and blocked.
• Choke up in cross drainpipes caused overflow of water resulted in damage to tar roads
like sinking of the road and created potholes.
It was also observed that culvert type and pipe dimension are not considered while designing
storm water drains (ravine length, catchment rain fall & its surface runoff). All masonry
culverts in the landslide prone area need to be converted into RCC culverts, because of their
strength and long life. In some locations, quarrying and construction above the ravines was
done without following road & hill cutting guidelines. Most of the work was undertaken using
heavy machinery like JCB that loosened the material and was carried downstream during the
slide.

42
Photo 12: Pipes damaged due to landslide

Photo 11: Unlined storm water


drains

It was observed that the poor water management played a triggering role during the landslides.
The soil and boulder arresting structures and their regular maintenance needs to be done in the
ravines. The watershed structures were poorly constructed in the affected areas or there was no
maintenance of watershed structures like gabions and loose boulders in the ravine.

Drone Survey:
In the present study, seven landslides were studied using drone survey. The volume estimations
were done using different methods which are given below.
Landslide Debris Volume (m3) by Field Revised Volume (m3) by (Area
observations by drone × 1/2 depth)

Panchgani 31500 33639

Kakanewadi 32000 51379

Dikshi 7000 3568

Shidrukwadi 1 18000 23414

Shidrukwadi 2 252000 80157

Gokulwadi 50000 27161

Khalcha Ambeghar 210000 198537

Table 3: Debris volume calculated using different methods

The volume calculated using cut and fill method using drone is given in annexure 3. The table
above presents the volume estimates arrived at by different methods and is presented here for
comparison only. There are some discrepancies in the volume and further refinements in the
volume estimation methodology can only be done after an exhaustive study. The drone
estimates of the area will be more accurate than the average length – width – distance measures
done in the field, as these measurements are converted into rectangular areas. Drone survey

43
will map out the exact area occupied by the debris, including width variations along the distance
of debris transport. This can further be validated through field studies.

Key learnings from Rapid assessment and Landslide inventory:


The limited aerial coverage (given the short duration of the study) and focus on the events of
July 2021 restricted the examination of landslide occurrences across Western Maharashtra.
This has limited the establishment of a robust template applicable for all areas in the region for
drawing conclusions and providing concrete directions for a comprehensive future actionable
programme. Nonetheless, previous studies by GSI, GSDA and academia (in general), besides
the experience of experts has helped in formulating the following key learnings from this study.
Some aspects of these learnings are elaborated in the following pages (Role of Water &
Conceptual model of slope failure in Western Maharashtra) but are being listed below.
• Hydrology - Hydrogeology: Without an iota of doubt, the contribution of the excessive
rainfall (of end-July 2021) and consequent hydrostatic pressures that build up in the soil
and weathered zone profiles of the landscape, even as overland flow is continually
acting as a means of surface drainage, is a key factor in the inventoried landslides.
Therefore, understanding the hydrogeological conditions of vulnerable slopes and
monitoring them becomes the cornerstone of all future studies on this subject.
• Landslide category: most of the landslides inventoried fall in the ‘mixed’ domain
(rockfall + mud / soil flow). This appears to contradict the earlier projected distribution
across categories of landslides.
• Contact zone failure: The failure of slopes has occurred dominantly at the contact
between VAB and CB, with a secondary dominance of fractured rock failure.
• Spring / stream proximity: Without exception, all landslides either had springs in the
vicinity (or at elevations) of the scarp or had pre-existing streams draining the
landscape.
• Elevational control: While there is no regional elevational control on the landslides, on
a local scale, failure is recorded along very narrow elevation ranges (of less than +50
m for a cluster of landslides). This may be an artifact of the sub horizontal stacking of
the Deccan basaltic lava flows, suggesting that the same flow contact in an area is likely
to be the most vulnerable.
• Topographic bench: Presence of a ‘bench’ geometry (with a relatively gentler slope
capping a steep slope), where the bench has a significant weathered rock +/- thick soil
cover is a common observation
• Debris volume: There is no correlation between the dimensions of the scar-face created
by the landslide and the volume of debris that moved during the event. The volume of
debris created during the landslide is not less than 3 times the volume of the zone of
excavation.
• Slope control: The length of movement of the debris is largely controlled by the slope
characters (angle and aspect), but the slope characters do not apparently have as much
a control as other factors on landslide occurrences, in the first place.

44
• Vegetational control: The (conventional) notion of barren slopes being more vulnerable
does not stand the test of this study. In fact, all the inventoried landslides (without
exception) occurred in vegetated slopes.
• Vulnerability: Not unexpectedly, maximum damage (to life, property and
infrastructure) has occurred at the base the landslides due to the moving debris, rather
than because of the slope failure itself. Obviously, the base of vulnerable slopes must
be the focus of attention for mitigation of such future damage.

45
THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL: GENERIC MODEL (BASED ON THE
RAPID ASSESSMENT):

The weathering and erosion of the Deccan basalts in the DVP is an ongoing process and will
continue in the future as well. As a result, movement of material downslope should be treated
as a natural continuum that has been going on for a long time yielding the current landscape of
this province; and will continue in the future as well. For most of the time, such movements
will be driven by the surface waters, that carry the weathered material along with it at differing
rates. Dissolved material extracted from the basaltic bedrock will be entrained along with the
groundwater and removed from its original position with the passage of time. All such
processes will be slow and gradual.

A recent study by Joshi (2014) spread over two years in the Pravara River valley covering two
catchments with areas of 2,180 m2 and 1,670 m2 gave average values of soil + regolith erosion
of 6.72 m3/annum and 4.05 m3/annum respectively; of which nearly 4.03 m3/annum and 6.72
m3/annum was redeposited in the respective catchment basins. This study suggests that the
average erosional loss of soil / regolith in the DVP may be estimated to be around 1 m3/annum
per square kilometre of area. It is significant to note that most of this erosion occurs only during
the rainy seasons. The events of landslides in the DVP become scary, when one compares the
average erosion rate with the volumes of debris dislodged during the July 2021 landslides in
Western Maharashtra which had average debris of ~9.5x106 m3 that moved in a matter of few
minutes!

Based on past studies of slope failures in the Deccan Traps, Peshwa and Kale (1987) had
concluded that:
• Basaltic lava flows exposed along the Western Ghats are neither homogeneously
compact nor dry and unaltered in nature.
• The lateritic – clayey admixture produced due to weathering of the Trappean rocks is
considerably weaker than the basalt rocks themselves.
• A relatively stabler slope during the dry season, the weathered portion of the basalts
with its lateritic – clayey cover comes under unstable conditions due to a saturated
condition resulting from a rise in the water table during the monsoon, especially along
joint or fracture planes.

This forms the basis of schematic model of landslides in this terrain (Fig. 21) which was tested
during the present study. The occurrence of heavy rains in the affected area, preceding (&
during) the landslide event, presence of inherited joints / fractures in the bedrock, a significant
weathering profile above the slip surface appear to be consistent during the July 2021 events
as had been earlier noticed in the DVP. Some additional observations emerged during the
present study, that are elaborated upon in the ensuing pages.

46
Figure 21: A generic model of landslides in the Deccan basaltic terrain of Western Maharashtra. (a)
Depicts the status of the slope profile prior to the occurrence of the landslide event. (b) Nature of the
slip surface and its relation to factors contributing to the trigger of the landslide. (c) Post-event
situation. (d) Enlarge segment of (c) defining different zones within the landslide and its components.

47
SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT: A FRAMEWORK FOR MAPPING
VULNERABILITIES AND BUILDING RESILIENCE
Two broad categories of definitions prevail in the literature on vulnerabilities (Gerlitz et al.,
2014). In a nutshell, the first one draws upon literature on natural hazards and defines
vulnerability as a function of the internal characteristics of a population or system that mediate
the extent to which that population or system experiences harm because of exposure to an
external hazard (Wisner et al., 2004), the risk of the outcome (disaster) being a function of and
resulting from the interaction of hazard and vulnerability. The second definition is derived from
the third and fourth Assessment report (IPCC, 2001, 2007) wherein vulnerability is defined as
the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate
change including climate variability and extremes. Hence, in the second case, vulnerability is
a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (of a population of system).

Hence, what is implicitly common to both the definitions is the importance of susceptibility of
the natural system and the population to, in the case of this report, landslides. In the process of
eventually arriving at a detailed vulnerability mapping of the region with respect to landslides,
we were able to identify (through our rapid study) the following susceptibility factors. These
were based on a combination of the detailed inventory of sample landslides across six talukas
of the three districts of Western Maharashtra and Konkan regions, limited but strategic analyses
of certain data sets, including rainfall and a listing of critical geomorphological factors based
on GIS maps and overlay of certain field-based analyses. These factors are:

1. Elevation
2. Slope
3. Aspect
4. Natural drainage
5. Lithological contact (between VAB and CB)
6. Thickness of regolith
7. Incipient lateritisation
8. Thickness of soil
9. Presence of clay in soil
10. Ecology
11. Rainfall
i) Annual
ii) History – trend and distribution pattern – especially accumulated rainfall
anomalies
iii) Antecedence

Further, to understand ‘exposure’ to landslide events better and because exposure along with
susceptibility defines vulnerability, we propose a matrix of factors that define exposure of
habitations to the susceptible factors listed above. In defining such exposure, we grouped the
susceptibility factors into four broad categories, based mainly on the feedback from our field
observations and inventory data from which these factors were identified. The four categories
that define the exposure matrix are tabulated below. While morphology and geology (and soils)
are relatively static in shorter periods of time, ecological factors are relatively more dynamic
while rainfall and its variation in space and time is the most dynamic of these factors.

48
(I) MORPHOLOGY (II) GEOLOGY & SOILS
• Elevation • Lithological contact
• Slope and aspect • Incipient lateritisation
• Natural drainage • Fracture zones
• Thickness of soil
• Presence of clays

(III) ECOLOGY (IV) RAINFALL


• Land use • Annual rainfall – long term mean
• Landcover • Trends – annuals and seasonal
• Degraded landscape • Intensity
• Diversity of vegetation • Antecedence
• Density of old, tall trees

Table 4: Matrix showing the four kinds of susceptibility factors that lead to exposure from a landslide hazard

FACTORS LEVELS OF RISK


LEVEL 1:
Rainfall + any one of the other three factors LOW RISK
LEVEL 2:
Rainfall + any two of the other three factors MEDIUM RISK
LEVEL 3:
All four factors HIGH RISK

Table 5: A framework for levels of risk for a location / habitation based on exposure to the susceptibility factors
leading to the exposure from a landslide hazard

Tables 4 and 5 provide a framework based on which habitations in these districts can be
classified under different levels of risk, both from the point of view of early warning and
mitigative measures, as appropriate. However, to even attempt such a matrix, somewhat
detailed studies of the landslide sites, with systematic measurement and monitoring are clearly
required.

At the same time, our field observations and the data from the inventory of 84 landslides
revealed a certain deviation from mainstream inferences on landslides in the region – inferences
that people in various sectors refer to. These deviations can be captured under five key points.

1. All the failure points were not on the steepest portion of the respective slopes on which
the landslide occurred, even though slope was a factor in the movement of material and
its deposition.
2. Many landslides were on slopes that were thickly vegetated, even forested, even while
a few of these were on slopes with little vegetation.
3. Most failures were not at the interface of the soil and massive bedrock but within the
regolith zone – weathered and fractured rock - above the massive bedrock.
4. Water – the rainfall related fluxes and the subsurface changes in water in the soil and
regolith – were responsible for the final trigger to the failure.
5. A clear pattern of correlation was noticed between regional, linear fracture trends,
drainage morphology and the morphology of the slide.

49
We provide below, a sharpened set of hydrogeomorphic parameters (tabulated through maps
and short bulleted observations in Table 6) that will provide a means of classifying the
habitations, especially in high-susceptibility zones, keeping the above aspects in mind. This set
of parameters (taluka-wise) is based on a quick GIS-based analyses of correlation between the
strike of the landslide scar, the direction of the landslide and the strike(s) of rock fractures that
show regional trends found exposed in the vicinity of the landslide with the following factors
derived from a regional morphometric analysis of secondary data combined with a correlation
of data from our study, specifically pertaining to the trends of regional fractures, the strike of
the landslide scar, the direction of the movement of landslide debris and density of natural
springs in the vicinity of the landslides:

1. Slope
2. Aspect
3. Natural drainage (streams and rivers)
4. Density of springs

50
Bhor Taluka, Pune District
Slope

(a) Most susceptible slope ranges


• 21 to 45
• 16 to 20

(b) ENE-WSE trending ridges


are most susceptible

Aspect

(a) North and West facing


slopes are most susceptible and
show strong correlation with the
major maxima for direction of
landslides.

(b) Western and Southwestern


aspects show poor correlation
with the direction of landslides
recorded, indicating that most
landslides have occurred in a
direction that is neither facing
nor in the lee of the general
monsoonal advance (SW and W
towards NE and E)

51
Drainage
(a) The fracture zone maxima are
along NNE-SSW, showing a
strong correlation with drainage,
the drainage alignment,
especially lower order drainage
in the vicinity of surveyed
landslides

(b) In many locations, there is a


strong correlation between the
fracture maxima (fracture
rosette), the alignment of the
stream / river channel (drainage
map) and regional fractures
exposed on slopes in the vicinity
of the landslides (recorded in the
inventory)

Springscapes (indicating density of springs)


The density of springs is
significantly higher in the
western parts of the taluka, near
the Western Ghat Escarpment
and is also reported to be high in
proximity to the surveyed
landslide locations

52
Patan Taluka, Satara District
Slope

(a) Most susceptible slope


ranges
• 0 to 10
• 16 to 20

(b) WNW – ESE trending


ridges are the most
susceptible

Aspect

(a) Northern, Eastern


and South-eastern
aspects (slopes facing in
these directions) are most
susceptible and show
strong correlation with the
major maxima for
direction of landslides

(b) Western and


Southwestern aspects
show poor correlation with
the direction of landslides
recorded, indicating that
most landslides have
occurred in the lee of the
general monsoonal
advance (SW and W
towards NE and E)

53
Drainage
(a) The fracture zone
maxima are NS and EW,
both showing a strong
correlation with drainage,
especially lower order
drainage in the vicinity of
surveyed landslides

(b) In many locations,


there is a strong
correlation between these
two fracture maxima, the
alignment of the stream /
river channel and regional
fractures exposed on
slopes in the vicinity of the
landslides. In fact, there is
a strong correlation
between the strike maxima
of the landslide scar and
the fracture maxima
(rosette diagrams)

Springscapes (indicating density of springs)


The density of springs is
significantly higher in the
western parts of the taluka,
near the Western Ghat
Escarpment and is also
reported be high in
proximity to the surveyed
landslide locations

54
Mahabaleshwar Taluka, Satara District
Slope

(a) Most susceptible


slope ranges
• 16 to 20
• 21 to 45

(b) ENE– WSW


trending ridges are
most susceptible,
with NE-SW
trending ridges also
being susceptible

Aspect

(a) Northern and


North-western
aspects (slopes
facing in these
directions) are most
susceptible based on
the location of the
surveyed landslides

(b) Western and


Southwestern
aspects show poor
correlation based on
the location of the
surveyed landslides

55
Drainage

Fracture-controlled
pattern of drainage is
evident in many
different trends –
with the maxima
along NS, NW-SE
and NE-SW
directions

Springscapes (indicating density of springs) The density of


springs is
significantly higher
in the western parts
of the taluka, near
the Western Ghat
Escarpment and is
also reported to be
high in proximity to
the surveyed
landslide locations

56
Velhe Taluka, Pune District
Slope

(a) Most susceptible


slope ranges
• 16 to 20
• 21 to 45

(b) NW-SE trending


ridges are most
susceptible

Aspect

(a) Aspects in the


quadrant North to East
are most susceptible and
show strong correlation
with the major maxima
for direction of
landslides

(b) Western and


Southwestern aspects
show poor correlation
with the direction of
landslides recorded,
indicating that most
landslides have occurred
in the lee of the general
monsoonal advance
(SW and W towards NE
and E)

57
Drainage
(a) The fracture zone
maxima are NS and
EW, both showing a
strong correlation with
drainage, especially
lower order drainage in
the vicinity of surveyed
landslides

(b) In many locations,


there is a strong
correlation between
these two fracture
maxima (fracture
rosette), the alignment
of the stream / river
channel (drainage map)
and regional fractures
exposed on slopes in the
vicinity of the landslides
(recorded in the
inventory), with a trend
of NW-SE that is not
reflected in the rosettes
but is quite prominent in
one of the clusters of the
landslides;
Springscapes (indicating density of springs)
The density of springs is
significantly higher in
the western parts of the
taluka, near the Western
Ghat Escarpment and is
also reported to be high
in proximity to the
surveyed landslide
locations

58
Mahad and Poladpur Talukas, Raigad District

Slope Aspect

(a) Most susceptible slope ranges: (a) Aspects in the arc NNW to ESE are most
• 21 to 45 susceptible and show strong correlation with the major
• 16 to 20 (a few slides also fall at the interface maxima for direction of landslides; another minor set
of this range and a gentler range, i.e., less than is the west facing slopes
16) (b) Southwestern aspects show poor correlation with the
(b) NW-SE, NE-SE and ENE-WSW trending ridges are direction of landslides recorded, indicating that most
most susceptible landslides have occurred in directions that are not facing
the direct monsoonal advance (SW and W towards NE
and E)

59
Drainage Springscapes

(a) The fracture zone maxima are along NNW-SSE and The density of springs is significantly higher in the
ENE-WSW, showing a strong correlation with the eastern parts of the taluka, in areas that are located on
drainage alignment, especially along lower order the rise of the Western Ghat Escarpment and is also
drainage in the vicinity of surveyed landslides reported to be high in proximity to the surveyed
(b) There is strong correlation between the fracture landslide locations
maxima (fracture rosette), the alignment of the stream /
river channel (drainage map) and regional fractures
exposed on slopes in the vicinity of the landslides
(recorded in the inventory)
Table 6: Maps and key factors defining vulnerability – taluka-wise (based on limited numbers of surveyed
landslides, therefore only indicative)

60
61
DEVELOPING AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR LANDSLIDES

A vulnerability analysis helps in understanding the proneness of areas to landslides and the
possibility of damage to life and property. However, what is even more crucial, particularly in
such vulnerable zones, is a system of forewarning that provides timely indicators and alerts for
communities and response systems to react in a manner that protects lives. Soil creep and the
movement along a slope often provides the first indicator for slope failure and landslides.
Methods used in the measurement of soil creep can be divided into four groups (Selby, 1966):

1. Those involving the movement of surface stakes, pins and markers, or columns in the
ground.
2. Those which involve measurement of tilt bars or deformation of tubes.
3. Those which measure movement of plates in the ground.
4. Laboratory studies

To begin with, in the landslide prone region of Konkan and Western Ghats, it may be useful to
install ‘oriented’ surface stakes or markers or columns in the ground on certain slopes in
vulnerable zones. Tilt bars may help too but may require more elaborate preparation. Hence, a
column anchored into the sub-surface is the first option that is suggested.

‘Filling, storing, and draining’ of water are all equally relevant to understand and to quantify
landslide behaviour (Bogaard and Greco, 2016). The dynamics of pore (water) pressure are a
consequence of the relationship between rates of infiltration, sub-surface drainage and the
relationship between water in the unsaturated zone and the underlying saturated zone. Finally,
it is the pore-water pressures that lead to the trigger in a landslide event. The landslides of July
22nd and 23rd in the study sites have all reported the role of sub-surface water in the failure of
slopes and in the transport of material during the slide. One of the common reports from all
locations was the prolonged and large-scale nature of overland flow7. This phenomenon was
of significance because both infiltration excess (as defined in Horton, 1945) and saturation
excess (as defined by Dunne and Black, 1970) were both in play at the time of the landslides,
leading to an unprecedented rise and sustained pore-water pressure. Hence, the key parameter
in forecasting early warning on landslides is the subsurface pore pressure. While long-term
monitoring can provide the precise thresholds of pore-water pressures causing slope failure in
the Western Ghats of Maharashtra, piezometric levels from the soil zone and the regolith – and
more significantly their relationship – can provide a fairly reliable dual indicator for an early
warning system along with real-time measurement of rainfall.

Piezometer data from three hollows of a catchment along the Western Ghats of Kerala indicate
that on June 21 and 22, 2007, a continuous rain spell of 10 hours with a total precipitation of
147 mm resulted in the development of high pore-water pressure from the beginning of the
storm that persisted through the time of occurrence of three shallow landslides (Kuriakose et
al., 2008). Hence, based on the conceptual model derived from the field observations and based
on a quick literature review on the subject, we propose the following framework for an early
warning system in the Western Districts of Maharashtra, especially in the three districts where
our study was undertaken, i.e., Raigad, Pune and Satara.

7
Overland flow is the flow of water on the surface of the ground that is outside the confines of a stream or river
channel

62
(a)

(b)
Figure 22: The relative positions of the soil piezometric level and the phreatic level during a normal rainy
season with intermittent, broken spells (a) and during the spells like in July 2021 (b)

Ps P
r

Figure 23: A pair of piezometers for establishing the early warning system for landslides. Ps represents the soil
piezometer while Pr represents the piezometer measuring water levels in the saturated regolith (unconfined or
phreatic aquifer)

63
The early warning system that we propose includes the measurement of five parameters. We
recommend that this system be installed in all the villages / habitations in the high susceptibility
zones indicated in the previous section. These parameters are listed below and compiled into
Table 7 (please refer to Figure above for the piezometers for items (4) and (5) in the list below
and in table 7):

1. Slope anchored columns or markers: to be installed along susceptible slopes, especially


on slopes that harbour habitations at their bases
2. Rainfall: to be measured with an automated rain gauge that will send a record of real-
time data to a centralised location for feedback
3. Spring discharge: to be measured manually, using a bucket and stopwatch for a couple
of springs that emerge on susceptible slopes in and around the village
4. Soil piezometer (Ps): shallow bore holes of small diameter. These can be 4 inches in
diameter and with a depth of not more than 1.5 m, and terminating in the soil zone, just
about the soil-regolith contact (depth to be equivalent to soil thickness or 1.5 m,
whichever is deeper); a water level sensor to be deployed in each piezometer with a
relaying chip that provides real-time data pulses to a central location
5. Groundwater level piezometer (shallow) – Pr: shallow bore holes of small diameter (4
to 4.5 inches), penetrating through the regolith aquifer and down to the regolith –
bedrock contact) (the maximum depth to be equivalent to the depth of regolith or 5 m,
whichever is deeper); a water level sensor to be deployed in each piezometer with a
relaying chip that provides real-time data pulses to a central location

Sr. Parameter Measurable indicator Early warning signal Responsibility


no.
1 Slope Location and Change in the location and / District administration with the
movement / orientation of the stake / or orientation of the marker help of PWD; monitoring on a
creep marker / tiltmeter on a slope regular basis to be undertaken
column anchored to the by trained community resource
slope persons
2 Rainfall Rainfall intensity that 30 mm / hour (rainfall Installation of rain gauges in
exceeds the rainfall intensity that just exceeds each gram panchayat to be
intensity rate, with an the average infiltration rate undertaken by the District
uninterrupted for the red soils in Western Administration under the
antecedent rainfall Ghats) with antecedent supervision of IMD or related
period period of 48 hours agency
3 Spring • Increase in the • A manifold increase in Through a community resource
discharge number of springs the number of springs (5 person in each location who is
• Rapid rise in spring times the normal springs trained to undertake the
discharge rates observed in the area) measurement of spring
• Rise in the • A rise in spring discharge, quantitatively and
temperature of discharge by 5 to 10 qualitatively after a training by
spring-water times ACWADAM with support from
• A rise in temperature of GSDA
spring-water by 5
degrees centigrade or
more

4 Soil 1. Very shallow head 1. Less than 0.1 m from Installation of soil piezometers
piezometer (water level) in the ground level by the District Administration
level soil piezometer 2. Less than 0.1 m for more through a protocol developed
2. Water level in the than three hours with the help of ACWADAM.
piezometer The measurement of the level

64
sustained for long will have to be either through
periods sensors installed in the
piezometer or through manual
measurements by the
Community Resource Person
(CRP) or a combination of
automated and manual systems
5 Shallow 1. Phreatic surface 1. Less than 0.5 m from The drilling of shallow
groundwater (water table) rises ground level piezometers (not more than 5 m
level into the soil zone deep) will have to be undertaken
above 2. Less than 0.5 m from through an agency like GSDA
2. Groundwater level ground level for more through the District
is sustained at this than three hours Administration. Like the soil
level over piezometer measurement, a
prolonged periods combination of automation and
manual measurement, the latter
through the CRPs is
recommended
Table 7: Five parameters with respective indicators and signals of early warning through each of the measurable
indicators

65
WAY FORWARD
This project report is the culmination of a rapid study including detailed surveys of 85 landslide
sites, conducted over a period of three months after which it took a month to analyse data and
prepare this report. This was also a period where fieldwork was challenging due to the
extended, intermittent rains and problems of poor accessibility to some site locations due to
poor conditions of roads. Moreover, the ever-present threat of COVID-19 affected field visit
plans with some disruptions. Nevertheless, the report is a logical compilation of arguments
drawing largely upon field observations, secondary data and literature surveys. The inferences,
the vulnerability framework and the suggestions for the early warning system need to be
followed up with a more systematic facilitation on all the three fronts. Hence, in taking this
further, we suggest key steps to take this ahead and a perspective plan, which can be detailed
out based on the following key points:

• It is necessary to build further on the vulnerability zonation that is derived based on


GSI’s description of susceptibility zones and the analyses from the current study.
However, to develop a more detailed and expansive risk assessment framework that is
the basis for developing resilient systems for the landslide hazard in Western
Maharashtra and the Konkan region, we propose
o Activities to be undertaken in the immediate period following the acceptance of
this report – short term, immediate interventions.
o Developing an approach, a strategy and a proposal for a long-term detailed
effort that includes a study of a larger sample of landslide locations in the six
talukas, including a study about the reactivation potential at certain landslide
locations and operationalisation of the short-term activities including piloting
of the early warning system described in the previous section. We reiterate here
the fact that the inferences from the current study are based on a quick appraisal
of a small sample of landslides from just three districts.
o A careful monitoring of the parameters suggested as part of the Early Warning
System and fine tuning these during the longer-term effort.
• Further, it is important to quickly set up the infrastructure for the early warning system
based on the five measurement indices provided, preferably in all the habitations of
each of the six talukas of the three districts – begin with sample locations that can be
identified based on clusters of habitations – with the possibility of a collaborative effort
between GSI and ACWADAM, particularly regarding the hydrology and hydrogeology
related aspects
• What this would entail is the setting up of a longer-term (3-4 year) action research
programme that includes a comprehensive study on landslides from 2021 – a larger
number from all the Western Maharashtra and Konkan districts on either side of the
Western Ghat escarpment, i.e., Nandurbar, Dhule, Nasik, Pune, Satara and Kolhapur +
Palghar, Thane, Raigad, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts and establishment of early
warning systems in all such areas
• The longer-term observations based on analysis will also help sharpen the susceptibility
analyses and move the system towards a more robust vulnerability synthesis that will
integrate the early warning system with improved technology, information
communication and feedback with a longer and larger disaster management strategy.
Such an approach has the potential to be scaled up or compared with similar studies in
other landslide-prone regions of India, such as the Himalayas, the Eastern Ghats and
the larger length of the Western Ghats

66
• In parallel, it is also crucial to develop capacities of the State Disaster Management
Unit by orienting them towards the vulnerability mapping results and the operations
involved in the early warning system proposed here. The longer-term strategy,
therefore, would involve training of community volunteers, the State Disaster
Management Unit and other such stakeholders in operationalising the early warning
system that will lead to the protection of life and livelihoods against the hazard of
landslides along either site of the Western Ghat escarpment in Maharashtra.
• At the same time, it is equally important to decentralise capacities on early warning,
monitoring systems and responses to the grassroots where communities can develop
their own strategies in response to the information generated at such scales

Table 8 below provides a list of activities suggested at different levels and the stakeholders
who will co-ordinate and conduct these activities. The table provides a first draft of what we
suggest, which can be refined and improved after further interaction with various decision
makers and stakeholders.

67
Activity Frequency Co-ordination and
operations agency
Village 1. Installation of instruments at Once (installation) and regular Collector office
level the village level – rain operation and maintenance
gauge, stakes / tiltmeter before the monsoon season
columns on slopes, soil
piezometers, groundwater
piezometers (in the regolith
aquifer)
2. Monitoring of rainfall Daily during monsoon and Trained community
twice a day during extended resource person
spells of heavy rainfall – a (ACWADAM can
hybrid model of manual rain help in conducting
gauges and automated rain training to the CRPs)
gauging systems can also be
considered)

3. Monitoring of the shallow Once a day or even more Trained community


regolith aquifer – a dug well frequent during the course of resource person
that is located at the highest extended heavy rainfall during
location in the village area – the monsoon; otherwise, once a
upstream area of the village week during other periods of the
monsoon. The practice may be
followed even during other dry-
period months at a frequency of
once a fortnight to develop a
relationship between the
rainfall, recharge and discharge
from the shallow aquifer
4. Monitoring of stake / Daily during the heavy rainfall Trained community
tiltmeter column along the spells resource person
slope
5. Monitoring discharge of a Once in a week during monsoon Trained community
couple of springs along the and once a day during extended resource person
slopes adjacent to the village heavy spells of rainfall; the
practice could also be followed
at longer intervals during the
dry periods
6. Monitoring of cracks/ gaps Once in a week with a greater Trained community
developed in the fields or on frequency during extended resource person and
the road heavy rain spells a few GP Members
7. Soil piezometer (could be At least one soil piezometer Trained community
installed at appropriate along the slope at a convenient resource person
locations for clusters of location – to be measured
villages) manually with a simple tape
measure
8. Shallow groundwater At least one shallow Trained community
piezometer in close groundwater piezometer along resource person
proximity to the soil the slope at a convenient
piezometer (could be location – to be measured
installed at appropriate manually with a simple tape
locations for clusters of measure
villages)
9. Generate awareness Regular activity (mainly before Tehsildar office
amongst community the monsoon) – like an IEC through the DDMA,
members regarding natural strategy on landslide awareness Collector office,
hazards such as landslides that includes early warning and ACWADAM can help
and floods through films, strategy community responses in developing such
animation, posters material

68
District 10. Monitoring of water level in Hourly water levels through Senior Geologist,
level (at a soil and shallow automatic sensors GSDA –
few groundwater piezometers ACWADAM can
appropriate collaborate with
locations in GSDA in setting up
the these systems
susceptible 11. Training of community / GP One training before the monsoon DDMA and SDMA
areas in members / Gram sevak each year – between 20th May
each of the regarding preparedness and and 10th June
landslide early response to landslide
prone 12. Cleaning of storm of drains, Once before the monsoon and at PWD department
talukas) RCC culvert pipes before the regular intervals following
rainy season in the ghat heavy rain spells during the
sections / in the susceptible monsoon
zones
13. Training of volunteers for Once before the monsoon SDMA and DDMA
constructing temporary
shelters and first aid during
the hazard.
State level 14. Communication warning for Daily and at higher frequencies IMD, Pune or IITM,
heavy rainfall through IMD during prolonged heavy rain Pune
at greater frequencies (IMD spells
provides daily advisories,
which could be further
supplemented)
15. Conducting training and Once before the monsoon SDMA / NDRF
mock drills for the DDMU
before the onset of monsoon.
16. Undertake long term study SDMU – a longer
on landslides for mapping terms collaborative
landslide prone areas in each study involving GSI,
of the districts GSDA and
ACWADAM is
suggested
Table 8: A framework of activities and their suggested co-ordination at different levels with regard to the
development of an early warning system on landslides in Western Maharashtra

69
WORKSHOP REPORTS

ACWADAM team conducted three workshops to disseminate the findings from the study in
Panchgani, Mumbai and Mangaon. The first workshop was jointly organised by ACWADAM,
UNICEF office, Mumbai and Collector office, Satara at Initiatives of Change (IofC), Asia
Plateau, Panchgani, Satara on 9th March 2022. Mr. Shekhar Singh, Collector, Satara, Mr. Vinay
Gauda, Chief Executive Officer, Zilla Parishad, Satara, Mr. Mohite, Deputy Conservator of
Forests, Satara and forty officers from various Government departments including irrigation,
PWD, GSDA, DWS, Disaster management attended this meeting. Members from NGOs like
Mr. Bharat Patankar, Shramik Mukti Dal, Ms Jayashree Rao, Grampari and five others were
also present. The report of the workshop along with the list of participants is attached for ready
reference.
The second workshop was organised on 21st March 2022 at Hotel Ambassador, Mumbai. Mr.
Aseem Gupta, Principal Secretary, Disaster Management, Relief and Rehabilitation
Department, Government of Maharashtra, the collectors of Satara, Ratnagiri and Raigad, the
Commissioner, GSDA, Pune, the members of the landslide committee formed by the
Government of Maharashtra, the members of State and district Disaster Management agency,
the officers from Geological Survey of India, attended the workshop. The list of participants is
attached for ready reference. During this meeting, ACWADAM and UNICEF team shared the
final rapid assessment report prepared by ACWADAM with the Government and with the
members of landslide committee.
ACWADAM team conducted the third workshop at Sane Guruji Rashtriya Smarak, Vadaghar,
Mangaon for the community members, NGOs and Government officers from Mahad and
Poladpur taluka of Raigad district on 30th April 2022. The tahsildar of Mahad along with a
couple of Gram sevak and representatives of NGOs attended this workshop. The list of
participants is attached for ready reference. ACWADAM team presented the findings of the
study. The community members from Bhisewadi and Sutarwadi from Mahad taluka
volunteered to monitor the protocol suggested in the report. ACWADAM team conducted a
short training for 10-12 villages near Bhisewadi and Sutarwadi for monitoring critical
parameters as a part of landslide early warning system.
Photographs

(A) (B) (C )
A: Workshop in Panchgani
B: Workshop in Mumbai
C: Workshop in Mangaon

70
Important points emerged during the workshop
1. Need of demystified capacity building/ training of Gram panchayat members for
the susceptible villages.
2. Need of training for emergency preparedness and planning at GP, taluka, and
district level.
3. Installation of Early warning system in one or two landslide susceptible pilot
locations this year.
4. Developing a strategy for rehabilitation of people from landslide affected villages.
5. Need for detailed study on soils and soil water dynamics.

71
GLOSSARY
Aquifer: Aquifer is a saturated permeable geologic unit that can transmit significant quantity
of water under ordinary hydraulic gradient.

Bedrock: Bedrock denotes the solid, un-weathered, unjointed rock in the earth’s subsurface;
it may be exposed at the surface in a few places in the form of rock outcrops

Contact spring: Contact springs are springs that emerge at places where relatively permeable
rocks overlie rocks of low permeability.

Compact basalt: It is a dark coloured, fine grained extrusive igneous rock which is hard, dense
and compact.

Debris: It is a mix of soil (largely red, oxidised soils, in some cases lateritic), partly weathered
and fractured rock fragments and vegetation including trees from the slope that has failed.
Drainage density: It is the total length of streams per unit area.

DVP: Deccan Volcanic province is an area that is spread across more than half a million km2
in parts of Western and Central India and is underlain by several hundreds of metres of sub-
horizontal basaltic lava flows stacked one above the other.

Duricrust: Duricrusts are materials found on the surface or near surface of the Earth consisting
of a hardened accumulation of silica (SiO2), alumina (Al2O3), and iron oxide (Fe2O3) in
varying proportions, with admixtures of other substances that may be enriched with oxides of
manganese or titanium within restricted areas.

Hydraulic conductivity: Hydraulic conductivity is the rate of flow under a unit hydraulic
gradient through a unit cross-sectional area of aquifer

Landslide: Landslide is the commonly used term for what may technically be defined as
‘failure of a part of the natural slope resulting in downslope movement of soil, rock and organic
matter under the effect of gravity’.

Overland flow: Overland flow is defined as water that flows over the land surface as either
diffuse sheet flow (laminar or mixed laminar flow) or concentrated flow (turbulent flow) in
rills and gullies.

Regolith: Regolith denotes that portion of the rock (overlying the bedrock) that tends to be
weathered, fractured, broken down into fragments of various sizes; some portion of the
overlying soil may also find its way into the regolith zone

Soil: Soil is the uppermost layer of unconsolidated material that includes mineral grains,
organic matter, living organisms and pore space. In some ways, it symbolizes the final stage in
the weathering of underlying rocks

Vadose zone: The vadose zone, also called ‘unsaturated zone’ is the zone on the earth’s
subsurface above the water table (of the unconfined aquifer). In other words, it extends from
the surface of the ground to the water table and includes water retained by forces of adhesion

72
and capillarity action against the force of gravity. Soil moisture can be considered a part of
vadose water.

Vesicular amygdaloidal basalt (VAB): It is a dark-coloured, fine-grained extrusive igneous


rock with vesicles. These vesicles are sometimes filled with amygdales.

73
ANNEXURES
1. Landslide inventory format
2. Landslide inventory for 84 slides
3. Volumetric analysis using Drone Survey

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75
Name of Surveyor: Date

PARTICIPATORY LANDSLIDE INVENTORY FORMAT


(To fill at each site)

Name of the location (nearest Gram


Panchayat name):
Name of the informant (if present at the
location):

Latitude Longitude Elevation

Landslide Information:
Rainfall at the time of
Date and time of
the slide
the slide
(heavy/medium/light)
Strike direction of Direction of the slide
the slip surface (towards which
(from where the direction the debris is
‘scar’ originates) transported)

Length of the ‘scar’ Width of the ‘scar’

Land use land cover


in the vicinity of the
Average depth
slide (agriculture/
grasslands/habitations)
How far has the slide debris moved
downslope? (estimate in km or m or feet –
mention the unit)

Groundwater related information in the context of landslide


Natural springs in Above the Below At the Any other observation (please
the vicinity of the slide the slide describe)
slide (tick whichever slide
is applicable)
Is debris from the landslide Is water discharging At the time of slide was there
discharging water? (yes/no) from the slide scar? a difference in the
(yes/no) temperature of water at the
slide as compared to other
water sources around?
(yes/no)

Are there any seepages along the


joints of the exposed bedrock?
(yes/no)

76
Name of Surveyor: Date

Is there any stream in the


downslope portions of the slide?
(yes/no)
If yes, has the debris blocked the
drainage? (yes/no)

Geology related information

Soil Bedrock

Exposed surface after the


Regolith (weathered- Any other (please describe)
slide
fractured section)

Geology observed at the


slide
Trend of the bedrock
fractures (if observed at the
slide)
Fill the following details if the landslide is along a road cutting
Joint alignment vis-à-vis the slope of
Road alignment Slope in degrees
the cut

Are there any storm Are there any retaining Are the storm water drains are
water drains present at walls present? (yes/no) blocked naturally or by
the location? (yes/no) anthropogenic activities? (yes/no)

Mention the kind of property Litholog of the exposed surface:


damage:

Mention if there was any loss


of life:

77
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