Industrialization,

Climate
change and
Poverty nexus
in South Asia

Sajida Khalid
MS-ESS
Date: May 10, 2018
Presentation Outline

➝ Introduction
➝ Industrialization, Climate Change and Poverty Linkage
➝ Implications of nexus in South Asia
➝ Necessary Implementations

2
1
Introduction

3
Introduction

➝ Industrialization, Climate Change and Poverty nexus-

Complex web of interrelated factors
➝ Several controversies on cause vs. consequence
➝ Climate change as mother of all externalities or vice versa
➝ Poverty and climate change are closely linked
➝ Environmentally induced migration results in shift of
pressure on resources
➝ Industrialization improve economic growth, reduce
poverty but also add to climate change causing factors-
cycle begins again

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 Industrialization Poverty
• Economic growth • Population growth Industrialization-Poverty
• Technology • Unemployment • Economic stability
• Energy use • • Development
Resource exploitation
• Employment • Low income levels • Outreach
• Stability • Poor health • Migration
• Affluence • Lack of education • Urban Slums
• Shift in Trade

Industrialization-Climate Change
• Increased GHG Emissions
• Pollution
• Energy Security
• Economy Security
Industrialization-Climate Change-Poverty Nexus
Climate Change
• Global Warming
• Temperature rise
• Change in rainfall
• Sea level rise
• Floods, droughts Poverty-Climate Change
• Heat Wave • Food Security
• Water Security
• Health Security
• Disaster Security
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2
South Asia
Introduction

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South Asia-Geopolitical Boundaries
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5.2 million km2/2 million mi
3.5% of world’s land surface area; 11.71% of continent of Asia
Area

1.749 billion
24% of the world's population; 39.49% of Asia's population
Population

Most populous, most densely

populated region of the World
Geographically diverse; glaciers, forests, valleys, grasslands,
deserts as well as freshwater and marine environment
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 Nominal
Area Population Density GDP HDI
2 2
Country Capital (km ) (2017) (per km ) (billions) GDP per capita (2016)
Afghanistan
Kabul 652,864 34,169,169 53.3 $20.57 $559 0.479
BangladeshDhaka 147,570 164,827,718 1,116.60 $248.85 $1,520 0.579
Bhutan Thimpu 38,394 792,877 20.6 $2.31 $2,870 0.607
India New Dehli 3,287,263 1,342,512,706 408.4 $2.45 $1,850 0.624
Maldives Male 298 375,867 1,261.30 $3.58 $9,950 0.701
Nepal Khatmandu 147,181 29,187,037 198.3 $24.64 $866 0.558
Pakistan Islamabad 881,913 207,774,520 223.1 $304.40 $1,629 0.55
Sri Lanka Colombo 65,610 20,905,335 318.6 $84.02 $3,930 0.766

Key Statistics of South Asian Countries

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3
South Asia
Implications of nexus

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• Population Growth
• Income levels
• Health & Education Country 1950 2000 2050 2100
Afghanistan 8,151,000 22,462,000 63,796,000 57,638,000
Bangladesh 45,646,000 132,151,000 201,249,000 169,541,000
Bhutan 164,000 606,000 952,000 793,000
India 369,881,000 1,006,301,000 1,656,554,000 1,659,786,000
Maldives 80,000 300,000 445,000 438,000
Nepal 8,990,000 24,819,000 45,985,000 29,677,000
Pakistan 40,383,000 152,430,000 300,848,000 364,283,000
Sri Lanka 7,534,000 19,042,000 25,167,000 14,857,000
Population Growth in South Asian Countries from 1950-2100

 67-100%
Poverty ∆ 33-67%
 0-33%
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• Population Growth
• Income levels
• Health & Education Inequality- Population
GDP Growth Employment Unmemploy-
Inflation adjusted HDI below
2017 Rate ment Rate
Country (2016) poverty line
Afghanistan 3% 6% 166 35.80% 45% 35.0%
Bangladesh 7.28% 5.44% 141 31.50% 68% 6.0%
Bhutan 5.90% 4.10% 135 23.70% 69% 4.0%
India 7.20% 4.80% 127 21.90% 55% 9.9%
Maldives 4.10% 2.50% 114 16% 58% 28%
Nepal 7.70% 6.70% 142 25.20% 82% 4.60%
Pakistan 5% 4.30% 149 21.40% 51% 5.60%
Sri Lanka 4.50% 5.80% 65 8.90% 53% 5.10%

Development Statistics of South Asian Countries

Poverty

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• Population Growth
• Income levels Population Primary Secondary
• Health & Education Life Literacy
undernourished School School
Expectancy Rate
Country (2015) Enrollment Enrollment
Afghanistan 26.80% 49.72 29% 49% 28.1%
Bangladesh 16.40% 70.06 90% 54% 56.8%
Bhutan N/A 67.88 85% 78% 47.0%
India 15.20% 67.14 92% 68% 61.0%
Maldives 5.20% 74.69 94% N/A 93.8%
Nepal 7.80% 66.51 96% 72% 60.3%
Pakistan 22% 66.35 73% 38% 54.9%
Sri Lanka 22% 75.94 98% 96% 91.2%

Health & Education Statistics in South Asian Countries

Poverty

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• Economic Growth
• Employment

Industrialization
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• Economic Growth
• Employment

Annual Growth in Working-Age Population, Employment

and Labor Force in South Asian Countries
Industrialization
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• Global Warming
• Temperature rise An alarming fact…
• Change in rainfall
• Sea level rise
• Floods, droughts ➝ Low income countries
• Heat Wave
contribute least to climate
change but are most
vulnerable to its effects

Climate Change

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 A study Estimates…
➝ Global warming is costing an economic impact of more than
$1.2 billion/year to the world.
➝ Annual loss of 1-6% from global GDP
➝ Air pollution from fossil fuels causes death of about 4.5
million persons per year.
➝ A rise in cost of climate change by 2030 will be encountered.
➝ By 2030, the combined cost of climate change and air
pollution will rise up to 3.2% of global GDP.
➝ Less developed countries will suffer loss of 11% annual GDP.
(Climate Vulnerability Monitor: A guide to the Cold Calculus of a Hot Planet; study by DARA group
& Climate Vulnerable Forum in 2012)

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• Global Warming
• Temperature rise In South Asia,
• Change in rainfall
• Sea level rise ❑ Glacier melting in the Himalayas will increase flooding and
• Floods, droughts affect water resources within the next two to three decades.
• Heat Wave
❑ Increased pressures on natural resources and the environment
due to rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic
development.
❑ Crop yields could decrease up to 30% by the mid-21st century.
❑ Mortality due to diarrhoea primarily associated with floods
and droughts will rise
❑ Sea-level rise will exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion
and other coastal hazards.

Climate Change
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 ❑ Disturb coastal infrastructure
• Sea level rise
• Change in rainfall ❑ Effect on tourism, aquaculture, fisheries,
• Glacial Melting agriculture, forestry and recreation
• Extreme Weather ❑ Salt water intrusion and groundwater
contamination
❑ Land subsidence
❑ Risk to low lying islands
❑ Erosion

Climate Change
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• Sea level rise
• Change in rainfall
• Glacial Melting
• Extreme Weather ❑ Drought
❑ Flooding
❑ Desertification
❑ Loss of land and economy
❑ Lowered crop yields
❑ Loss of rain-fed agriculture

Climate Change
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• Sea level rise
• Change in rainfall
• Glacial Melting
• Extreme Weather ❑ Threat to natural capital of
water
❑ Loss of lives and cattle
❑ Effect on region’s economy
❑ Increased vulnerability to
disasters
❑ 230,000 deaths and $45 billion
damage over past two
decades

Climate Change
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• Sea level rise
• Change in rainfall
• Glacial Melting
• Extreme Weather ❑ Increased disasters of flood, fire and drought etc.
❑ Increasing spell of heatwaves
❑ Intense rainfalls, floods, landslides
❑ Natural and human capital degradation
❑ Prolonged droughts
❑ Threats of cyclones and tsunamis

Climate Change
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 Food
security

Energy Economical
security security

Water Disaster
security security

Health
security

Security implications of Industrialization, Climate Change and Poverty Nexus

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Food Security

➝ Food security is defined as economic access to food

along with food production and food availability.
➝ Food and Agricultural organization (FAO), in August
2008, defines food security in terms of food
availability, food access, food utilization and food
vulnerability.
➝ Less food production -> supply shortfalls -> market
prices of commodities increase
➝ Predicted that prices of all food types are expected to
rise by 50-150% by 2030.

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25
Energy Security

➝ Most of energy needs in Asia are fulfilled by coal.

➝ UBS report warned about a shortage of about 100
million metric tons of thermal coal use for power
generation in Asia-Pacific region by year 2020.
➝ The current usage pattern of fossil fuels also depict
that they will not be available to fulfil our needs for
more than 50 years
➝ Major problem in region is unstable economy which is
main hindrance in finding solution to energy crisis and
related issues

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Water Security

➝ 20% of world’s population i.e., 1.3 billion people inhabited

around Himalayan River Basins.
➝ Expected to face serious economic loss by 2030 in terms of:
1. Water scarcity
2. Resource extinction
3. Drought
4. Unavailability of clean drinking water
5. Narrowing of rivers as outcome of reduced flow of rivers
and more silt deposits leading to floods
6. Economic burden due to more epidemics of water borne-
diseases and increased mortality rates.

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Health Security

➝ Access of a population to health services on an

individual level.
➝ Climate change events have negative impact on global
health.
➝ Death toll also increase mainly in infants and children.
➝ Over 2 million people per year die due to water borne
diseases.
➝ Health impacts also effects socio-economic status,
vulnerability and resilience of a community.

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Disaster Security

➝ Every year 250 million people are affected.

➝ International community has spent $2.7 billion (1.9
billion Euros) since 1992 to help in mitigating impact
of hurricanes, floods, droughts etc.
➝ Water and climate related hazards are responsible for
90% disaster events leading to loss of lives, livelihood,
shelters, physical and social infrastructures of society

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Economic Security

➝ Closely concerned with other dimensions

➝ An increase from 5.6% between 1995 and 2005 was
recorded
➝ Industrialization and technological development
ensures economic security
➝ Industrialization increasing migration towards cities
and urbanization forming Urban slums
➝ Climate change increases vulnerability

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31
Migration

➝ Key drivers:
⇾ Climate based drivers
⇾ Non-climatic drivers

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Migration leading to shift in trade and pressure on resources
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 Necessary
4
Implementations

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 Policy
Options

Adaptation

Mitigation
Low Carbon Strategies

➝ A number of low-carbon growth strategies are being

explored in different sectors within the region like;
1. Urban sector
2. Energy sector
3. Transport
4. Carbon finance
➝ Best options: Reduce barriers to use efficient energy use,
implement environment friendly and climate friendly
technologies.
➝ Promotion of renewable energy technologies

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Questions??

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