BAYE’S THEOREM

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1. Bag A contain 3 Red and 4 white balls; Bag B contains 4 Red and 3 white balls; Bag C
contains 4 Red and 5 white balls.
One of the bags is to be selected and a ball is to be drawn from the bag. The probability of
1 1 1
Bag A, Bag B and Bag C getting selected are , and respectively.
2 3 6
The ball drawn from selected bag is found to be of red colour, what is the probability that it
was drawn from
(i) Bag A
(ii) Bag B
(iii) Bag C

2. A pack of playing cards was found to contain only 51 cards instead of regular 52. If the first
13 cards examined are all red, what is the probability that the missing card is black.

3. A letter is know to have come from TATANAGAR or CALCUTTA. On the envelope just two
consecutive letters TA are visible. Find the probability that the letter came from
TATANAGAR.

4. I write a letter to my friend and do no receive a reply. It is know that one out of every m
letters does not reach its destination. It is certain that my friend would have replied had my
letter been received.
What is the probability that my friend did not receive the letter.

5. An unbiased dice is thrown. If a multiple of 3 appears two balls are drawn from box A. If a
multiple of 3 does not appear two balls are drawn from box B. Two balls drawn are found to
be of different colours.
Box A contains 3W, 2B balls and box B contains 4W and 1B balls. Find the probability that
the balls were drawn from box B, if balls are without replacement.

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6. A bag contains n – balls. It is given that the probability that among these n – balls exactly r –

balls are white is proportional to r 2 ( 0  r  n ) . A ball is drawn at random and is found to be

white. Find the probability that all the balls in the bag are white.

7. A box contains N – coins, m of which are fair and the rest are biased. The probability of
1 2
getting a head when a fair coin is tossed is , white it is when a biased coin is tossed. A
2 3
coin is drawn from the box and tossed twice. The first time it shows a head and the second
time it shows a tail. What is the probability that coin drawn is fair.

8. A printing machine can print n – letter say 1,  2 ,......, n . It is operated by electric impulses,

each letter being produced by a different impulse. Assume that there exists a constant
probability p of printing the correct letter and ak  assume independence.

One of the n – impulses, chosen at random was fed into the machine twice and both times the
letter  , got printed. Find the probability that the impulse chosen was meant to be for 1 .

9. Lot A contains, 6 good and 4 defective articles. Lot B consists of 7 good and 3 defective
articles. A new lot C is formed by taking 6 articles from lot A and 4 articles from lot B.
An article is drawn from lot C and is found to be defective. Find the probability that this
defective item is originally from lot A.

10. Ram speaks truth in 70% cases and Shyam speaks truth in 60% cases.
A dice is thrown.
Both agree that six has occurred.
Find the probability that six did occur.

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