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Contents
Preface xii
Ground Motion and Failure during Earthquakes 51

Ground Acceleration and Shaking Time 51
1 Natural Hazards and Disasters 1 Secondary Ground Effects 53
Catastrophes in Nature 2 Cases in Point
Human Impact of Natural Disasters 3
Giant Subduction-Zone Earthquake—Sendai (To-hoku) Earthquake,
Predicting Catastrophe 5 Japan, 2011 55
Relationships among Events 7 A Major Earthquake on a Blind Thrust Fault—Northridge
Earthquake, California, 1994 56
Mitigating Hazards 8
Earthquake in a Continent-Continent Collision Zone—Nepal
Land-Use Planning 8 Earthquake, 2015 57
Insurance 9
The Role of Government 10 Critical View 59
The Role of Public Education 10 Chapter Review 61
Different Ground Rules for the Poor 11
Living with Nature 12
Chapter Review 14 4 Earthquake Predictions, Forecasts,
and Mitigation 63
2 Plate Tectonics and Physical Hazards 16 Predictions and Short-Term Forecasts 64
Earth Structure 17 Earthquake Precursors 64
Early Warning Systems 66
Plate Movement 19
Prediction Consequences 66
Hazards and Plate Boundaries 20
Earthquake Probability 67
Divergent Boundaries 22
Forecasting Where Faults Will Move 67
Convergent Boundaries 24
Forecasting When Faults Will Move 69
Transform Boundaries 25
Hotspot Volcanoes 27 Populations at Risk 71
The San Francisco Bay Area 72
Development of a Theory 28
The Los Angeles Area 74
Chapter Review 32
Minimizing Earthquake Damage 75
Types of Structural Damage 76
3 Earthquakes and Their Causes 34 Earthquake Preparedness 81
Faults and Earthquakes 35 Land-Use Planning and Building Codes 82
Types of Faults 35 Survival Guide 84
Causes of Earthquakes 36
Cases in Point
Tectonic Environments of Faults 38 Shaking Amplified in Soft Mud and Clays—Recent San Francisco
Transform Faults 39 Bay Earthquakes, 1989 and 2014 85
Subduction Zones 40 One in a Series of Migrating Earthquakes—Izmit Earthquake,
Divergent Boundaries 42 Turkey, 1999 86
Intraplate and Eastern North American Earthquakes 43 Collapse of Poorly Constructed Buildings that Did Not Follow
Earthquake Waves 45 Building Codes—Wenchuan (Sichuan), China, Earthquake,
Types of Earthquake Waves 45 2008 87
Seismographs 46 Deadly Collapse of Poorly Constructed Heavy Masonry Buildings—
Locating Earthquakes 47 Haiti Earthquake, January 12, 2010 89
Earthquake Size and Characteristics 48 Critical View 91
Earthquake Intensity 48 Chapter Review 93
Earthquake Magnitude 48
vi
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5 Tsunami 95 Cases in Point
Deadly Plinian Eruption and Lahar—Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines,
Tsunami Generation 96
1991 139
Earthquake-Generated Tsunami 96
A Long History of Caldera Eruptions—Santorini, Greece 141
Tsunami Generated by Volcanic Eruptions 97
Tsunami from Fast-Moving Landslides or Rockfalls 98 Future Eruptions of a Giant Caldera Volcano—Yellowstone Volcano,
Wyoming 142
Tsunami from Volcano Flank Collapse 99
Tsunami from Asteroid Impact 100 Chapter Review 145
Tsunami Movement 101
Tsunami on Shore 101 7 Volcanoes: Hazards and Mitigation 147
Coastal Effects 102
Volcanic Hazards 148
Run-Up 103
Lava Flows 149
Period 103
Pyroclastic Flows and Surges 149
Tsunami Hazard Mitigation 104 Ash and Pumice Falls 151
Tsunami Warnings 105 Volcanic Mudflows 154
Surviving a Tsunami 107 Gas Outbursts and Poisonous Gases 156
Future Giant Tsunami 108 Predicting Volcanic Eruptions 158
Pacific Northwest: Historical Record of Giant Tsunami 108 Examining Ancient Eruptions 158
Kilauea, Hawaii: Potentially Catastrophic Volcano-Flank Eruption Warnings: Volcanic Precursors 159
Collapse 109
Mitigation of Damage 160
Canary Islands: Potential Catastrophe in Coastal Cities across
Controlling Lava Flows 160
the Atlantic 111
Warning of Mudflows 160
Survival Guide 112
Survival Guide 161
Cases in Point
Populations at Risk 161
Massive Tsunami from a Subduction Zone Earthquake—Sendai,
Vesuvius and Its Neighbors 162
Japan, March 2011 113
The Cascades of Western North America 164
Lack of Warning and Education Costs Lives—Sumatra Tsunami,
A Look Ahead 169
2004 114
Immense Local Tsunami from a Landslide—Lituya Bay, Alaska, Cases in Point
1958 116 Volcanic Precursors—Mt. St. Helens Eruption, Washington,
1980 170
Critical View 119
Catastrophic Pyroclastic Flow—Mt. Vesuvius, Italy,
Chapter Review 120 ad 79 173
Kilauea’s East Rift Eruptions Continue— Kilauea, Hawaii,
6 Volcanoes: Tectonic Environments 1983–2015 175
and Eruptions 122 Critical View 177
Introduction to Volcanoes: Generation of Magmas 123 Chapter Review 179
Magma Properties and Volcanic Behavior 124
Tectonic Environments of Volcanoes 127
8 Landslides and Other
Spreading Zones 127
Subduction Zones 127 Downslope Movements 181
Hotspots 128 Forces on a Slope 182
Volcanic Eruptions and Products 128 Slope and Load 182
Nonexplosive Eruptions: Lava Flows 129 Frictional Resistance and Cohesion 182
Explosive Eruptions: Pyroclastic Materials 130 Slope Material 183
Styles of Explosive Eruptions 131 Moisture Content 184
Types of Volcanoes 132 Internal Surfaces 184
Shield Volcanoes 133 Clays and Slope Failure 185
Cinder Cones 136 Causes of Landslides 186
Stratovolcanoes 136 Oversteepening and Overloading 186
Lava Domes 137 Adding Water 188
Giant Continental Calderas 138 Overlapping Causes 189
Contents vii
Types of Downslope Movement 190 10 Weather, Thunderstorms,
Rockfalls 190 and Tornadoes 247
Rotational Slumps 194
Translational Slides 196 Basic Elements of Weather 248
Soil Creep 197 Hydrologic Cycle 248
Snow Avalanches 197 Adiabatic Cooling and Warming 249
Atmospheric Pressure and Weather 249
Hazards Related to Landslides 201 Coriolis Effect 249
Earthquakes 201 Global Air Circulation 251
Failure of Landslide Dams 202 Weather Fronts 252
Mitigation of Damages from Landslides 204 Weather Inversions and Smog 253
Record of Past Landslides 204 Jet Stream 253
Landslide Hazard Maps 205 Regional Cycles or Oscillations 254
Engineering Solutions 206 The Polar Vortex and Arctic Oscillation (AO) 254
Survival Guide 208 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 255
Cases in Point Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 256
Overlapping Causes for a Landslide—The Oso Slide, Western El Niño/La Niña–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 256
Washington, 2014 209 Regional Winds 259
Ongoing Landslide Problems—Coastal Area of Monsoons 259
Los Angeles 210 Santa Ana and Chinook (Foehn) Winds 260
Slippery Smectite Deposits Create Conditions for Landslide—Forest Drought, Dust, and Desertification 262
City Bridge, South Dakota 212
Drought 262
Slide Triggered by Filling a Reservoir—Vaiont Landslide, Italy, Dust Storms 265
1963 213
Desertification 267
A Rockfall Triggered by Blasting—Frank Slide, Alberta, Heat Waves 268
1903 214
Snow, Ice Storms, and Blizzards 268
Critical View 216
Snow 268
Chapter Review 218 Ice Storms 270
Blizzards 271
9 Sinkholes, Land Subsidence, Thunderstorms 271
and Swelling Soils 220 Lightning 271
Sinkholes 221 Downbursts 274
Hail 275
Groundwater 221
Safety during Thunderstorms 275
Formation of Sinkholes 221
Tornadoes 277
Types of Sinkholes 224
Tornado Development 279
Areas That Experience Sinkholes 225
Classification of Tornadoes 281
Land Subsidence 227 Tornado Damages 282
Mining Groundwater and Petroleum 227
Safety during Tornadoes 285
Drainage of Organic Soils 230
Drying of Clays 232 Survival Guide 287
Thaw and Ground Settling 233 Cases in Point
A Massive Ice Storm in the Southern United States—Arkansas and
Swelling Soils 236
Kentucky, 2009 288
Survival Guide 238 Extreme Drought—Texas and Adjacent States, 2010–11 289
Cases in Point Lack of Winter Rain and Mountain Snow Leads to Severe
Subsidence Due to Groundwater Extraction—Venice, Drought— California, 2012–15 289
Italy 239 Deadly Heat Waves—Europe, 2003 and 2010 291
Differential Expansion over Layers of Smectite Clay—Denver, Lack of Shelters Despite a History of Tornadoes—Moore, Oklahoma,
Colorado 241 2013 292
Critical View 243 Critical View 294
Chapter Review 245 Chapter Review 296
viii Contents
11 Climate Change: Processes Channel Patterns 349
and History 299 Meandering Streams 349
Braided Streams 351
Principles of Climate 300 Bedrock Streams 352
Solar Energy and Climate 300
The Atmosphere and Climate 302 Groundwater, Precipitation, and Stream Flow 353
Greenhouse Gases 303 Precipitation and Surface Runoff 354
Reflection and Albedo 304 Flooding Processes 354
Earth’s Energy Budget 306 Changes in Channel Shape during Flooding 355
Earth’s Climate History 307 Flood Intensity 356
Establishing the Temperature Record 307 Rate of Runoff 357
Ice Ages 308 Stream Order 357
Global Warming 310 Downstream Flood Crest 358
Global Climate Models 313 Flood Frequency and Recurrence Intervals 359
Chapter Review 315 100-Year Floods and Floodplains 359
Recurrence Intervals and Discharge 360
Paleoflood Analysis 361
12 Climate Change: Impacts
Problems with Recurrence Intervals 363
and Mitigation 317
Mudflows, Debris Flows, and Other Flood-Related
Effects on Oceans 318 Hazards 364
Sea-Level Rise 318 Mudflows and Lahars 365
Global Ocean Circulation 321 Debris Flows 365
Weather 322 Glacial-Outburst Floods: Jökulhlaups 368
Solution of CO2 322 Ice Dams 369
Ocean Acidity 323 Other Hazards Related to Flooding 370
Precipitation Changes 324
Cases in Point
Arctic Thaw and Glacial Melting 326 Monsoon Floods—Pakistan, 2010 371
Melting Sea Ice 326
Flash Flood in a Canyon—Colorado Front Range, 2013 372
Sea-floor Thaw 327
Desert Debris Flows and Housing on Alluvial Fans—Tucson, Arizona,
Permafrost Thaw 328
2006 374
Glaciers Melting 329
Intense Storms on Thick Soils—Blue Ridge Mountains Debris
Impacts on Plants, Animals, and Humans 329 Flows 375
Impacts on Plants and Animals 329 Spring Thaw from the South on a North-Flowing River—The Red
Effects on Humans 330 River, North Dakota—1997 and 2009 376
Mitigation of Climate Change 331 Chapter Review 378
Reduction of Energy Consumption 331
Cleaner Energy 333
Carbon Capture and Storage 335 14 Floods and Human Interactions 381
Geoengineering Solutions 336
Political Solutions and Challenges 337 Development Effects on Floods 382
Urbanization 382
Cases in Point Fires, Logging, and Overgrazing 383
Rising Sea Level Heightens Risk to Populations Living on a Sea- Mining 384
Level Delta—Bangladesh and Kolkata (Calcutta), India 339
Bridges 385
CO2 Sequestration—The Weyburn Sequestration Project 340
Levees 385
Hidden Costs of Nuclear Energy—Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant
Failure, 2011 341 Levee Failure 386
Unintended Consequences of Levees 388
Chapter Review 343 Wing Dams 389
Dams and Stream Equilibrium 389
13 Streams and Flood Processes 345 Floods Caused by Failure of Human-Made Dams 390
Stream Flow and Sediment Transport 346 Reducing Flood Damage 392
Stream Flow 346 Land Use on Floodplains 392
Sediment Transport and Stream Equilibrium 346 Flood Insurance 393
Sediment Load and Grain Size 347 Environmental Protection 395
Contents ix
Reducing Damage from Debris Flows 395 Winds and Wind Damage 448
Early Warning Systems 397 Rainfall and Flooding 449
Trapping Debris Flows 397 Deaths 450
Survival Guide 398 Social and Economic Impacts 451
Cases in Point Hurricane Prediction and Planning 451
Repeated Flooding in Spite of Levees—Mississippi River Basin Hurricane Watches and Warnings 452
Flood, 1993 399 Uncertainty in Hurricane Prediction 452
Managing Flood Flow through Levees—Mississippi River Flood, Planning for Hurricanes 452
2011 401 Evacuation 452
A Long History of Avulsion—Yellow River of China 402 Managing Future Damages 453
Flood Hazard in Alluvial Fans—Venezuela Flash Flood and Debris Natural Protections 454
Flow, 1999 404 Building Codes 454
Flooding Due to Dam Failure—Teton Dam, Idaho, 1976 405 Flood Insurance 455
Critical View 406 Homeowners Insurance 456
Chapter Review 408 Extratropical Cyclones and Nor’easters 457

Survival Guide 459
15 Waves, Beaches, and Coastal Erosion 410 Cases in Point
City Drowns in Spite of Levees—Hurricane Katrina, 2005 460
Living on Dangerous Coasts 411
Extreme Effect of a Medium-Strength Hurricane on a Built-Up
Waves and Sediment Transport 411 Barrier Island—Hurricane Ike, Galveston, Texas, 2008 466
Wave Refraction and Longshore Drift 412 Landward Migration of a Barrier Island Coast—North Carolina
Waves on Irregular Coastlines 413 Outer Banks 469
Rip Currents 413 A Damaging Late-Season, Low-Category Storm—Hurricane Sandy,
Beaches and Sand Supply 414 Atlantic Coast, 2012 470
Beach Slope: An Equilibrium Profile 414 Catastrophic Typhoon in the Western Pacific—Supertyphoon
Loss of Sand from the Beach 416 Haiyan, the Philippines, 2013 472
Sand Supply 417 Floods, Rejection of Foreign Help, and a Tragic Death Toll in
an Extremely Poor Country—Myanmar (Burma)
Erosion of Gently Sloping Coasts and Barrier Cyclone, 2008 474
Islands 418
Development on Barrier Islands 419 Critical View 476
Dunes 420 Chapter Review 478
Sea-Cliff Erosion 422
Human Intervention and Mitigation of Coastal 17 Wildfires 480
Change 423 Fire Process and Behavior 481
Engineered Beach Protection Structures 423
The Fire Triangle 481
Beach Replenishment 425
Fuel 481
Zoning for Appropriate Coastal Land Uses 428
Ignition and Spreading 482
Cases in Point Topography 483
Extreme Beach Hardening—New Jersey Coast 429 Weather and Climate Conditions 484
Repeated Beach Nourishment—Long Island, New York 430 Secondary Effects of Wildfires 485
Critical View 431 Erosion Following Fire 485
Chapter Review 433 Mitigation of Erosion 485
Air Pollution 486
Wildfire Management and Mitigation 487
16 Hurricanes and Nor’easters 435
Forest Management Policy 488
Hurricane Formation and Movement 436 Fighting Wildfires 488
Formation of Hurricanes 436 Risk Assessments and Warnings 490
Classification of Hurricanes 436 Protecting Homes from Fire 491
Movement of Hurricanes and Areas at Risk 437 Evacuation before a Wildfire 492
Storm Damages 440 Forced Evacuation 493
Storm Surges 441 What to Do if You Are Trapped by a Fire 493
Waves and Wave Damage 445 Public Policy and Fires 494
x Contents
Survival Guide 495 Fallout of Meteoric Dust 513
Cases in Point Multiple Impacts 515
Unexpected and Deadly Change in Fire Behavior—Yarnell Hill Fire, Consequences of Impacts with Earth 515
Arizona, 2013 496 Immediate Impact Effects 515
Wildland–Urban Fringe Fires—Waldo Canyon and Black Forest Impacts as Triggers for Other Hazards 516
Fires, Colorado Springs, 2012 and 2013 496 Mass Extinctions 516
Heat from an Erratic Wildfire—Lolo Creek Complex, Western Evaluating Impact Risks 517
Montana, 2013 498
Your Personal Chance of Being Hit by a Meteorite 517
Firestorms Threaten Major Cities—Southern California Firestorms, Chances of a Significant Impact on Earth 518
2003 to 2009 499
Firestorm in the Urban Fringe of a Major City—Oakland–Berkeley What Could We Do about an Incoming Asteroid? 518
Hills, California Fire, 1991 501 Cases in Point
Critical View 503 A Round Hole in the Desert—Meteor Crater, Arizona 521
A Close Grazing Encounter—Tunguska, Siberia 521
Chapter Review 504
A Near Miss—The Chelyabinsk Meteor, Russia, 2013 522
Chapter Review 524
18 Asteroid and Comet Impacts 506
Projectiles from Space 507 Conversion Factors 526
Asteroids 507
Comets 507 Glossary 527
Meteors and Meteorites 508
Identification of Meteorites 508 Index 540
Evidence of Past Impacts 509 Appendix 1: Geological Time Scale, and Appendix 2:
Impact Energy 509 Mineral and Rock Characteristics Related to Hazards,
Impact Craters 510 can be found online at www.cengagebrain.com/shop
Shatter Cones and Impact Melt 513 /isbn/9781305581692
Contents xi
Preface
The further you are from the last disaster,
the closer you are to the next.
Why We Wrote This Book majoring in the geosciences may find motivation to continue
studies in related areas and to share these experiences with
In teaching large introductory environmental and physical
others.
geology courses for many years—and, more recently, natu-
Natural hazards and disasters can be fascinating and
ral hazards courses—it has become clear to us that topics
even exciting for those who study them. Just don’t be on the
involving natural hazards are among the most interesting for
receiving end!
students. Thus, we realize that employing this thematic focus
can stimulate students to learn basic scientific concepts, to
understand how science relates to their everyday lives, and
Living with Nature
to see how such knowledge can be used to help mitigate Natural hazards, and the disasters that accompany many
both physical and financial harm. For all of these reasons, of them, are an ongoing societal problem. We continue to
natural hazards and disasters courses appear to achieve put ourselves in harm’s way, through ignorance or a naïve
higher enrollments, have more interested students, and be belief that a looming hazard may affect others but not us. We
more interesting and engaging than those taught in a tradi- choose to live in locations that are inherently unsafe.
tional environmental or physical geology framework. The expectation that we can control nature through tech-
A common trend is to emphasize the hazards portions nological change stands in contrast to the fact that natural
of physical and environmental geology texts while spend- processes will ultimately prevail. We can choose to live with
ing less time on subjects that do not engage the students. nature or we can try to fight it. Unfortunately, people who
Students who previously had little interest in science can choose to live in hazardous locations tend to blame either
be awakened with a new curiosity about Earth and the pro- “nature on the rampage” or others for permitting them to
cesses that dramatically alter it. Science majors experience live there. People do not often make such poor choices will-
a heightened interest, with expanded and clarified under- fully, but rather through their lack of awareness and under-
standing of natural processes. In response to years of student standing of natural processes. Even when they are aware of
feedback and discussions with colleagues, we reshaped our an extraordinary event that has affected someone else, they
courses to focus on natural hazards. somehow believe “it won’t happen to me.” These themes are
Students who take a natural hazards course greatly revisited throughout the book, as we relate principles to soci-
improve their knowledge of the dynamic Earth processes etal behavior and attitudes.
that will affect them throughout their lives. They should be People often decide on their residence or business loca-
able to make educated choices about where to live and tion based on a desire to live and work in scenic environ-
work, how to better recognize natural hazards, and to deal ments without understanding the hazards around them.
with those around them. Perhaps some who take this course Once they realize the risks, they often compound the haz-
will become government officials or policy makers who can ards by attempting to modify the environment. Students who
change some of the current culture that contributes to major read this book should be able to avoid such errors. Toward
losses from natural disasters. the end of the course, our students sometimes ask, “So where
Undergraduate college students, including nonscience is a safe place to live?” We often reply that you can choose
majors, should find the writing clear and stimulating. Our hazards that you are willing to deal with and live in a specific
emphasis is to provide them a basis for understanding site or building that you know will minimize impact of that
important hazard-related processes and concepts. This book hazard.
encourages students to grasp the fundamentals while still It is our hope that by the time students have finished read-
appreciating that most issues have complexities that are ing this textbook, they should have the basic knowledge to
beyond the current state of scientific knowledge and involve critically evaluate the risks they take and the decisions they
societal aspects beyond the realm of science. Students not make as voters, homeowners, and world citizens.
xii
Our Approach Extensive illustrations and Case in Point examples bring
reality to the discussion of principles and processes. These
This text begins with an overview of the dynamic environ- cases tie the process-based discussions to individual cases
ment in which we live and the variability of natural pro- and integrate relationships between them. They emphasize
cesses, emphasizing the fact that most daily events are the natural processes and human factors that affect disas-
small and generally inconsequential. Larger events are less ter outcomes. Illustrative cases are placed at the chapter
frequent, though most people understand that they can hap- end to not interrupt continuity of the discussion. Coverage
pen. Fortunately, giant events are infrequent; regrettably, of natural hazards is balanced with excellent examples
most people are not even aware that such events can hap- across North America and the rest of the world. As our
pen. Our focus here is on Earth and atmospheric hazards global examples illustrate, although the same fundamental
that appear rapidly, often without significant warning. processes lead to natural hazards everywhere, the impact
The main natural hazards covered in the book are earth- of natural disasters can be profoundly different depend-
quakes and volcanic eruptions; extremes of weather, including on factors such as economic conditions, security, and
ing hurricanes; and floods, landslides, tsunami, wildfires, disaster preparedness.
and asteroid impacts. For each, we examine the nature and End-of-chapter material also includes Critical View photos
processes that drive the hazard, the dangers associated with with paired questions, a list of Key Points, Key Terms, Ques-
it, the methods of forecasting or predicting such events, tions for Review, and Critical Thinking Questions.
and approaches to their mitigation. Throughout the book,
we emphasize interrelationships between hazards, such as
the fact that building dams on rivers often leads to greater
New to the Fifth Edition
coastal erosion. Similarly, wildfires generally make slopes With such a fast-changing and evolving subject as natural haz-
more susceptible to floods, landslides, and mudflows. ards, we have extensively revised and added to the content,
The book includes chapters on dangers generated within with emphasis not only on recent events but also on those that
the Earth, including earthquakes, tsunami, and volcanic best illustrate important issues. We have endeavored to keep
eruptions. Society has little control over the occurrence of material as up-to-date as possible, both with new Cases in
such events but can mitigate their impacts through a deeper Point and in changes in governmental policy that affect peo-
understanding that can afford more enlightened choices. ple and their hazardous environments. New to this edition is a
The landslides section addresses hazards influenced by Survival Guide feature that highlights risk, preparedness, and
a combination of in-ground factors, human actions, and safety information related to relevant hazards. To make space
weather, a topic that forms the basis for many of the follow- for new Cases in Point, some older cases have been moved
ing chapters. A chapter on sinkholes, subsidence, and swell- online, where they can be accessed in the CourseMate avail-
ing soils addresses other destructive in-ground hazards that able at cengagebrain.com.
we can, to some extent, mitigate and that are often subtle yet In recognition of the rapid advances in understanding
highly destructive. of climate change and its increasing importance, we now
The following hazard topics depend on an understand- present this important topic in two separate chapters. That
ing of the dynamic variations in weather, thunderstorms material is thoroughly reorganized, rewritten, and revised,
and tornadoes, so we begin with a chapter to provide that with numerous new graphs and photos. Graphs have been
background. The next two chapters on climate change updated with the most recent available information.
address the overarching atmospheric changes imposed In addition to these overall changes, some significant
by increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases additions to individual chapters include the following:
that affect weather and many hazards described in the fol-
■ Chapters 3 and 4, Earthquakes, include new coverage
lowing chapters. Chapters on streams and floods begin with
of the giant 2015 Nepal earthquake that killed more than
the characteristics and behavior of streams and how human
8600 people, destroyed most of the capital, Kathmandu
interaction affects both a stream and the people around it.
and surrounding cities, and flattened most of its priceless
Chapters follow on wave and beach processes, hurricanes
ancient temples.We have added new insights on earth-
and nor’easters, and wildfires. The final chapter addresses
quakes associated with fracking, the latest way to drill for
asteroid impacts on Earth.
oil and gas.The moderate-size but destructive 2014 earth-
The book is up-to-date and clearly organized, with most
quake near Napa, California’s iconic wine-growing area
of its content derived from current scientific literature and
provides another wake-up call for this region.
from our own personal experience. It is packed with relevant
content on natural hazards, the processes that control them, ■ Chapters 6 and 7, Volcanoes, include an update on
and the means of avoiding catastrophes. Numerous excel- Hawaii’s lava flows, which continued into 2015.
lent and informative color photographs, many of them our ■ Chapter 8, Landslides, features a new Case in Point on
own, illustrate scientific concepts associated with natural the tragic Oso landslide in western Washington, which
hazards. Diagrams and graphs are clear, straightforward, and occurred in a known hazard area that permitted build-
instructive. ing of a new subdivision.
PrefaCe xiii
■ Chapter 10, Weather, Thunderstorms, and Torna- images, videos, animations, and more, all updated for the
does, has been significantly updated and revised. We 5th edition.
have added coverage of the polar vortex, a process that
is now better understood and more relevant to the pub-
lic after millions of people in the northeastern United Student Resources
States lived through the bitterly cold winter of 2014. A Earth Science CourseMate with eBook
new Case in Point focuses on the 2013 EF5 tornado that ISBN: 9781305866560
struck Moore, Oklahoma (the fourth in 14 years), killing Make the most of your study time by accessing everything
many people who had no tornado shelters, in spite of you need to succeed in one place. Read your text, take
federal support to partially pay for them. Another new notes, review flash cards, watch videos, take practice quiz-
Case is devoted to the severe California drought. zes, and more, all online with CourseMate.
■ Chapters 11 and 12, Climate Change, breaks the
existing climate change coverage into two updated and Virtual Field Trips in Geology, Hazards Edition
expanded chapters. Chapter 11 focuses on processes ISBN: 9781111668891
related to climate change, whereas Chapter 12 focuses The Virtual Field Trips in Geology, by Dr. Parvinder S. Sethi
on the impacts of climate change and mitigation strat- from Radford University, are concept-based modules that
egies. Coverage has been significantly expanded to teach students geology by using famous locations through-
encompass new data and illustrations from the 5th Inter- out the United States. The Hazards Edition includes geologic
governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). hazard concepts, including Mass Wasting, Earthquakes and
■ Chapters 13 and 14, Streams and Floods, features a Seismicity, Volcano Types, Desert Environments, and Run-
new Case in Point about the disastrous 2013 flash floods ning Water. Designed to be used as homework assignments
in the Rocky Mountain foothills near Denver that pro- or lab work, the modules use a rich array of multimedia to
vided a reminder of the Big Thompson canyon event demonstrate concepts. High-definition videos, images, pan-
almost 40 years before. oramas, quizzes, and Google Earth layers work together in
Virtual Field Trips in Geology to bring concepts to life.
■ Chapter 16, Hurricanes and Nor’easters, includes
coverage of Hurricane Sandy in late 2012, which was a
Virtual Field Trips in Geology: Complete Set of 15
major wake-up call for those who view a “weak” hurri-
ISBN: 9780495560692
cane as a minor inconvenience.
The Virtual Field Trips in Geology, by Dr. Parvinder S. Sethi
■ Chapter 17, Wildfires, includes new Cases in Point from Radford University, are concept-based activities that
about two large fires near Colorado Springs and the teach you geology by using famous locations throughout the
tragic Yarnell Hill fire in Arizona that killed 14 profes- United States. Designed to be used as homework assignments
sional firefighters. or lab work, the field trips use a rich array of multimedia to
■ Chapter 18, Asteroid and Comet Impacts, includes demonstrate concepts. High-definition videos, images, pan-
a new Case on the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor in Russia, oramas, quizzes, and Google Earth layers work together in
which was a frightening near miss that nearly became a Virtual Field Trips in Geology to bring concepts to life. Topics
catastrophe. include: Desert Environments, Geologic Time, Hydrothermal
Activity, Running Water, Sedimentary Rocks, Earthquakes &
Seismicity, Glaciers & Glaciation, Igneous Rocks, Mass Wast-
Ancillaries ing, Volcano Types, Plate Tectonics, Mineral Resources,
Metamorphism & Metamorphic Rocks, Groundwater, and
Instructor Resources
Shorelines & Shoreline Processes.
Cengage Learning Testing Powered by Cognero
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Powered by Cognero and contains multiple-choice, true/ ISBN: 9781111429058
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xiv PrefaCe
Acknowledgments Corpus Christi; Andrew MacInnes, Plaquemines Parish,
LA; Dr. Jamie MacMahan, Naval Postgraduate School,
We are grateful to a wide range of people for their assis- Monterey, CA; Curtis McDonald, LiveHailMap.com;
tance in preparing and gathering material for this book, far Tanya Milligan, Zion National Park, UT ; Dr. Alan Benimoff,
too many to list individually here. However, we particularly College of Staten Island, NY; Alan Mockridge, Intralink
appreciate the help we received from the following: America; Andrew Moore, Kent State University; Jenny
■ We especially wish to thank Rebecca Heider, Devel- Newton, Fire Sciences Laboratory, U.S. Forest Service;
opment Editor who not only expertly managed and Dr. Mark Orzech, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey,
organized all aspects of recent editions but suggested CA; Jennifer Parker, Geography, University of Montana;
innumerable and important changes in the manuscript. Dr. Barclay Poling, North Carolina State University; Peter
In large measure, the enhancements are in response to Reid, SCI-Fun, The University of Edinburgh; Dr. Stanley
her insight, perception, and skillful editing. Riggs, Institute for Coastal Science and Policy, East
Carolina University; Dr. Vladmir Romanovsky, University
■ For editing and suggested additions: Dr. Dave Alt, Univer- of Alaska; Dr. Dave Rudolf, University of Waterloo;
sity of Montana, emeritus; Ted Anderson; Tony Dunn (San Dr. Steve Running, Numerical Terradynamic Simulation
Francisco State University); Shirley Hyndman; Teresa Group, University of Montana; Todd Shipman, Arizona
Hyndman; Dr. Duncan Sibley, Dr. Kaz Fujita, and Dr. Tom Geological Survey; Dr. Duncan Sibley, Michigan State
Vogel from Michigan State University; Dr. Kevin Vranes, University; Stephen Slaughter, Washington Dept. Natural
University of Colorado, Center for Science and Technol- Resources; Robert B. Smith, University of Utah; Dr. Seth
ogy Policy Research. Stein, Northwestern University; Dr. Bob Swenson, Alaska
■ For information and photos on specific sites: Dr. Brian Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys; Donald
Atwater, USGS; Alexis Bonogofsky, National Wildlife Ward, Travis Co., TX; Karen Ward, Terracon, Austin,
Federation, Billings, MT; Dr. Rebecca Bendick, Univer- TX; John M. Thompson; Dr. Ron Wakimoto, Forest Fire
sity of Montana; Michael Burnside, Missoula, MT ; Karl Science, University of Montana; Dr. Robert Webb, USGS,
Christians, Montana Department of Natural Resources Tucson, AZ; Dr. Jeremy Weiss, University of Arizona;
and Conservation; Susan Cannon, USGS; Michael Cline, Vallerie Webb, Geoeye.com, Thornton, CO; Ann
USGS; Jack Cohen, Fire Sciences Laboratory, U.S. For- Youberg, Arizona Geological Survey.
est Service; Dr. Paul Cole, Earth Sciences, Plymouth
University, UK; Dr. Joel Harper, University of Montana;
■ For providing access to the excavations of the Minoan
culture at Akrotiri, Santorini: Dr.Vlachopoulos, head
Bretwood Hickman, University of Washington; Peter
archaeologist, Greece.
Bryn, Hydro.com; Dr. Dan Fornari, Woods Hole Oceano-
graphic Institution, MA; Dr. Kaz Fujita, Michigan State ■ For assisting our exploration of the restricted excava-
University; Ney Grant, West Coast Flying Adventures; tions at Pompeii, Italy: Pietro Giovanni Guzzo, the site’s
Colin Hardy, Program Manager, Fire, Fuel, Smoke chief archaeologist.
Science, U.S. Forest Service; Dr. Benjamin P. Horton, ■ For logistical help: Roberto Caudullo, Catania, Italy;
University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia; Dr. Roy Hynd- Brian Collins, University of Montana; and Keith Dodson,
man, Pacific Geoscience Center, Saanichton, British Brooks/Cole’s earth sciences textbook editor at the time
Columbia; Sarah Johnson, Digital Globe; Walter Justus, of the first edition.
Bureau of Reclamation, Boise, ID; Ulrich Kamp, Geog-
raphy, University of Montana; Bob Keane, Supervisory In addition, we appreciate chapter reviewers who
Research Ecologist, U.S. Forest Service; Dr. M. Asif Khan, suggested improvements that we made in the Fifth Edition:
Director, National Center of Excellence in Geology, Jennifer Rivers Cole, Northeastern University, Joan E.
University of Peshawar, Pakistan; Karen Knudsen, Fryxell, California State University, James Hibbard, North
executive director, Clark Fork Coalition; Kristy Kroeker, Carolina State University, David M. Hondula, University of
University of California, Santa Cruz, CA; Dr. Ian Lange, Virginia, Steve Kadel, Glendale Community College, David
University of Montana; Martin McDermott, McKinney Mrofka, Mt. San Antonio College.
Drilling Co.; Dr. Ian Macdonald, Texas A&M University, Donald Hyndman and David Hyndman
PrefaCe xv
■ During Hurricane Sandy the
Mark Olsen, NJ Army National Guard

east end of the Mantoloking
Bridge, at left, was submerged,
and houses on the barrier
island battered. Some like the
one in the lower left floated off
their foundations.
Natural Hazards
and Disasters
Living in Harm’s Way
1
W
hy would people choose to put their lives and property at risk? Large numbers Those who cannot
of people around the world live and work in notoriously dangerous places— remember the past
near volcanoes, in floodplains, or on active fault lines. Some are ignorant
are condemned to
of potential disasters, but others even rebuild homes destroyed in previous
repeat it.
disasters. Sometimes the reasons are cultural or economic. Because volcanic ash degrades
—George Santayana
into richly productive soil, the areas around volcanoes make good farmland. Large floodplains (Spanish philosopher), 1905
attract people because they provide good agricultural soil, inexpensive land, and natural
transportation corridors. Some people live in a hazardous area because of their job. For under-
standable reasons, such people live in the wrong places. Hopefully they recognize the hazards
and understand the processes involved so they can minimize their risk.
But people also crowd into dangerous areas for frivolous reasons. They build homes at
the bases or tops of large cliffs for scenic views, not realizing that big sections can give way
in landslides or rockfalls. They build beside picturesque streams hazardous areas knowingly—they generally don’t understand or
without realizing they have put themselves in a flood zone. Far recognize the hazards. However, they might as well choose to
too many people build houses in the woods because they enjoy park their cars on a rarely used railroad track. Trains don’t come
the seclusion and scenery of this natural setting without under- frequently, but the next one might come any minute.
standing their risk from wildfires. Others choose to live along Catastrophic natural hazards are much harder to avoid than
edges of sea bluffs where they can enjoy ocean views, or on passing freight trains; we may not recognize the signs of immi-
the beach to experience the ocean more intimately. But in these nent catastrophes because these events are infrequent. So many
locations they also expose themselves to coastal storms. In decades or centuries may pass between eruptions of a large vol-
October 2012, the devastating effects of Hurricane Sandy, only cano that most people forget it is active. Many people live so
a Category 1 storm, reminded many people of the hazards of long on a valley floor without seeing a big flood that they forget
living on the Atlantic coast. it is a floodplain. The great disaster of a century ago is long for-
Some natural catastrophe experts say these people have cho- gotten, so folks move into the path of a calamity that may not
sen to live in “idiot zones.” But people don’t usually reside in arrive today or tomorrow, but it is just a matter of time.
Catastrophes in Nature sudden movements. During an earthquake, a mountain can

abruptly rise several meters above an adjacent valley.
Geologic processes, like erosion, have produced large effects Some natural events involve disruption of a temporary
over the course of Earth’s vast history, carving out valleys equilibrium, or balance, between opposing influences.
or changing the shape of coastlines. While some processes Unstable slopes, for example, may hang precariously for
operate slowly and gradually, infrequent catastrophic events thousands of years, held there by friction along a slip sur-
have sudden and major impacts. face until some small perturbation, such as water soaking
Although streams may experience a few days or weeks in from a large rainstorm, sets them loose. Similarly, the
of flooding each year, major floods occurring once every opposite sides of a fault may stick until slowly building
few decades do far more damage than all of the intervening stress finally tears them loose, triggering an earthquake.
floods put together. Soil moves slowly downslope by creep, A bulge may form on a volcano as molten magma slowly
but occasionally a huge part of a slope may slide. Pebbles rises into it, then it collapses as the volcano erupts. The
roll down a rocky slope daily, but every once and a while behavior of these natural systems is somewhat analogous
a giant boulder comes crashing down (FIGURE 1-1). Moun- to a piece of plastic wrap that can stretch up to a point,
tains grow higher, sometimes slowly, but more commonly by until it suddenly tears.
March 30, 2007 December 12, 2013
Courtesy of the Utah Geological Survey (UGS)

Donald Hyndman
FIGURE 1-1 The Unexpected

On December 12, 2013, a huge mass of sandstone separated from a prominent cliff above homes along Highway 9 in the community of Rockville,
Utah, instantly killing the two home owners. This hazardous area of homes was highlighted in a Utah Geological Survey report in 2013. The same
home was pictured as in a dangerous location in the previous edition of this textbook printed in late 2012, one year before the disaster.
2 CHAPTER 1
People watching Earth processes move at their normal caused few fatalities and remarkably little property dam-
and unexciting pace rarely pause to imagine what might hap- age simply because the area surrounding the mountain is
pen if that slow pace were suddenly punctuated by a major sparsely populated. On the other hand, a similar eruption of
event. The fisherman enjoying a quiet afternoon trout fishing Vesuvius, in the heavily populated outskirts of Naples, Italy,
in a small stream can hardly imagine how a 100-year flood could kill hundreds of thousands of people and cause prop-
might transform the scene. Someone gazing at a serene, erty damage beyond reckoning.
snow-covered mountain can hardly imagine it erupting in an You might assume that more fatalities occur as a result of
explosive blast of hot ash followed by destructive mudflows dramatic events, such as large earthquakes, volcanic erup-
racing down its flanks. Large or even gigantic events are a tions, hurricanes, or tornadoes. However, some of the most
part of nature. Such abrupt events produce large results that dramatic natural hazards occur infrequently or in restricted
can be disastrous if they affect people. areas, so they cause fewer deaths than more common and
less dramatic hazards such as floods or droughts. FIGURE 1-3
Human Impact of Natural Disasters shows the approximate proportions of fatalities caused by
typical natural hazards in the United States.
When a natural process poses a threat to human life or prop- In the United States, heat and drought together account
erty, we call it a natural hazard. Many geologic processes for the largest numbers of deaths. In fact, there were more
are potentially hazardous. For example, streams flood as part U.S. deaths from heat waves between 1997 and 2008 than
of their natural process and become a hazard to those liv- from any other type of natural hazard. In addition to heat
ing nearby. A hazard is a natural disaster when the event stress, summer heat wave fatalities can result from dehydra-
causes significant damage to life or property. A moderate tion and other factors; the very young, the very old, and the
flood that spills over a floodplain every few years does not poor are affected the most. The same populations are vul-
often wreak havoc, but when a major flood strikes, it may nerable during winter weather, the third most deadly hazard
lead to a disaster that kills or displaces many people. When in the United States. Winter deaths often involve hypother-
a natural event kills or injures large numbers of people or mia, but some surveys include, for example, auto accidents
causes extensive property damage, it is called a catastrophe. caused by icy roads.
The potential impact of a natural disaster is related not Flooding is the second most deadly hazard in the United
only to the size of the event but also to its effect on the pub- States, accounting for 16 percent of fatalities between
lic. A natural event in a thinly populated area can hardly 1986 and 2008. Fatalities from flooding can result from
pose a major hazard. For example, the magnitude 7.6 earth-
quake that struck the southwest corner of New Zealand on
July 15, 2009, was severe but posed little threat because it
Compiled from many sources, including NOAA-NWS, USGS, USFS, and the NW Avalanche Center
happened in a region with few people or buildings. In con- Avalanche + Landslide 4.6%
trast, the much smaller January 12, 2010, magnitude 7.0
Volcano 0.2% Wildfire 2.8%
earthquake in Haiti killed more than 46,000 (FIGURE 1-2).
Earthquake + Tsunami 1.9%
In another example, the eruption of Mt. St. Helens in 1980
Winter weather
14.9%
Tornado
11.1%
Flood
Lightning 16.3%
10.8%
Ho new/UN Photo Logan Abassi/Handout/Reuters
Heat + Drought
27.8%
Storm Surge + Coastal
Erosion 9.6%
FIGURE 1-3 Hazard-Related Deaths

Approximate percentages of U.S. fatalities due to different groups
FIGURE 1-2 A Disaster Takes a High Toll of natural hazards from 1986 to 2008, when such data are readily
Searchers dig for survivors of the Haiti earthquake of January 12, available. For hazardous events that are rare or highly variable
2010, which killed more than 316,000, mostly in concrete and from year to year (earthquakes and tsunami, volcanic eruptions,
cinder block buildings with little or no reinforcing steel. and hurricanes), a 69-year record from 1940 to 2008 was used.
Natural Hazards and Disasters 3
hurricane-driven floods; some surveys place them in the hur- developing country, and New Zealand, a prosperous, devel-
ricane category rather than floods. oped country. In Haiti, between 46,000 and 316,000 people
The number of deaths from a given hazard can vary sig- were killed (U.S. government versus Haitian government
nificantly from year to year due to rare, major events. For estimates), mostly in the collapse of poorly built masonry
example, there were about 1800 hurricane-related deaths in buildings. Total damages were estimated to be about
2005 when Hurricane Katrina struck, compared with zero in U.S. $7.8 billion. In contrast, only 185 people died in the
other years. The rate of fatalities can also change over time New Zealand earthquake, which also occurred near a popu-
as a result of safety measures or trends in leisure activities. lous area. New Zealand’s buildings were generally well con-
Lightning deaths were once among the most common haz- structed. Despite this, damages were still estimated to be
ard-related causes of death, but associated casualties have about U.S. $6.5 billion.
declined significantly over the past 50 years, due in part to The average annual cost of natural hazards has increased
satellite radar and better weather forecasting. In contrast, dramatically over the last several decades ( FIGURE 1-4 ).
avalanche deaths have increased significantly over a similar This is due in part to the increase in world population,
period, a change that seems to be associated with increased which doubled in the 40 years between 1959 and 1999. By
snowmobile use and skiing in mountain terrains. July 2015, it reached 7.3 billion. It is also a function of the
Some natural hazards can cause serious physical damage increased value of properties at risk and to human migration
to land or man-made structures, some are deadly for people, to more hazardous areas. Overall losses have increased even
and others are destructive to both. The type of damage sus- faster than population growth. Population increases in urban
tained as a result of a natural disaster also depends on the and coastal settings result in more people crowding into
economic development of the area where it occurs. In devel- land that is subject to major natural events. In effect, people
oping countries, there are increasing numbers of deaths from place themselves in the path of unusual, sometimes cata-
natural disasters, whereas in developed countries, there are strophic events. Economic centers of society are increasingly
typically greater economic losses. This is because develop- concentrated in larger urban areas that tend to expand into
ing countries show dramatic increases in populations rele- regions previously considered undesirable, including those
gated to marginal and hazardous land on steep slopes and with greater exposure to natural hazards.
near rivers. Such populations also live in poorly constructed The reality of climate change adds an additional dimen-
buildings and have less ability to evacuate as hazards loom; sion to these problems; it is one of the greatest challenges fac-
many lack transportation and financial ability to survive ing the human race. Scientists agree that global temperatures
away from their homes. are rising. As world population grows and large numbers of
For an example of this phenomenon, in 2010, earth- people become more affluent and use larger amounts of
quakes of similar sizes (magnitude 7.0) struck Haiti, a poor, resources, greenhouse gas emissions increase dramatically.
450
2011: Japan, New Zealand earthquakes, Thailand flood
400
Billions of U.S. dollars (2013 prices)
2012: Hurricane Sandy

350 2010: Chile, New Zealand earthquakes
300 2008: Hurricanes Ike, Gustav

2005: Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, Wilma
250 2004: Hurricanes Ivan, Charley, Frances
1995: Kobe, Japan earthquake
200
150
1992: Hurricane Andrew
100
Swiss Re Insurance
1976: Tangshan, China earthquake
50
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Insured losses Uninsured losses 10-year average 10-year average

total losses insured losses
Economic loss 5 insured 1 uninsured losses
FIGURE 1-4 Increasing Costs of Natural Hazards

The cost of natural hazards is increasing worldwide. The 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan alone
caused losses of about $235 billion.
4 CHAPTER 1
may have involved luck more than science. Use of the same
techniques in similar circumstances has resulted in false
alarms and failure to correctly predict disasters.
Many people have sought to find predictable cycles
in natural events. Those that occur at predictable inter-
vals are called cyclic events. However, most recur-
rent events are not really cyclic; too many variables
control their behavior. Even with cyclic events, overlap-
Donald Hyndman
ping cycles make resultant extremes noncyclic, which
affects the predictability of a specific event. So far as
anyone can tell, most episodes, large and small, occur at
seemingly random and essentially unpredictable intervals.
FIGURE 1-5 Homes at Risk Although scientists cannot predict exactly when an event
Homes along channels in the Mekong River delta in southern will occur, based on past experience they can often forecast
Vietnam are almost in the water under normal circumstances. They the chance that a hazardous event will occur in a region within
would be washed away in the next major cyclone. a few decades. For example, they can forecast that there will
be a large earthquake in the San Francisco Bay region over the
next several decades, or that Mt. Shasta will likely erupt some-
Our generation of greenhouse gases seems likely to cause time in the next few centuries. In many cases, their advice can
population collapse in some parts of the world, especially in greatly reduce the danger to lives and property.
poor areas most affected by natural hazards. People’s living Ask a stockbroker where the market is going, and you will
conditions will be severely disrupted. Millions will die from probably hear that it will continue to do what it has done
increased incidence of storms and coastal flooding, heat during recent weeks. Ask a scientist to forecast an event, and
stroke, dehydration, famine, disease, and wars over water, he or she will probably look to the geologically recent past
food, heating fuel, and other resources. and forecast more of the same; in other words, the past is
Climate change is expected to lead to more rapid erosion the key to the future. Most forecasts are based on linear pro-
of coastlines, along with more extreme weather events that jections of past experience. However, we must be careful to
cause landslides, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires. Some look at a long enough sample of the past to see prospects
small islands in the Indian Ocean, far from the 2004 Suma- for the future. Many people lose money in the stock market
tra earthquake’s epicenter, were completely overwashed by because short-term past experience is not always a good indi-
tsunami waves. As sea level continues to rise, such low-lying cator of what will happen in the future.
islands will gradually submerge, even without a catastrophic Similarly, statistical forecasts are simply a refinement of
event. Extensive low-lying coastal regions of major river past recorded experiences. They are typically expressed as
deltas in Southeast Asia feed and are homes to millions of recurrence intervals that relate to the probability that a
poor people. Deltas of the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers natural event of a particular size, or magnitude, will happen
in Bangladesh, the Irrawaddy River in Myanmar, and the within a certain period of time, or with a certain frequency.
Mekong River in Vietnam and Cambodia are subject to 2-m For example, the history of movement along a fault may indi-
ocean tides more than 200 km upstream (FIGURE 1-5). Major cate that it is likely to produce an earthquake of a certain
storms can submerge most of the deltas, including all of their size once every hundred years on average.
rice fields and homes, under more than 2 m of water, with A recurrence interval is not, however, a fixed schedule for
storm waves on top of that. Sea-level rise with climate change events. Recurrence intervals can tell us that a 50-year flood
is expected to worsen those effects, killing thousands in is likely to happen sometime in the next several decades
major typhoons. The number of hurricanes has not increased but not that such floods occur at intervals of 50 years. Many
significantly, but since 1990 the annual number of the most people do not realize the inherent danger of an unusual
intense storms—Categories 4 and 5—nearly doubled to 18 occurrence, or they believe that they will not be affected
worldwide in 2005 although the future trend remains unclear. in their lifetimes because such events occur infrequently.
Hurricane development and intensity depend on energy pro- That inference often incorrectly assumes that the probabil-
vided by higher sea-surface temperatures. ity of another severe event is lower for a considerable length
of time after a major event. In fact, even if a 50-year flood
occurred last year, that does not indicate that there will not
Predicting Catastrophe be another one this year or for the next ten years.
To understand why this is the case, take a minute to
A catastrophic natural event is unstoppable, so the best way to review probabilities. Flip a coin, and the chance that it will
avoid it would be to predict its occurrence and get out of the come up heads is 50%. Flip it again, and the chance is again
way. Unfortunately, there have been few well-documented 50%. If it comes up heads five times in a row, the next flip still
cases of accurate prediction, and even the ones on record has a 50% chance of coming up heads. So it goes with floods
and many other kinds of apparently random natural events.
By the Numbers 1-1
The chance that someone’s favorite fishing stream will stage
a 50-year flood this year and every year is 1 in 50, regardless Relationship between Frequency and Magnitude
of what it may have done during the last few years. M ∝ 1/f
As an example of the limitations of recurrence intervals,
consider the case of Tokyo. This enormous city is subject to Magnitude (M) of an event is inversely proportional to frequency (f) of
devastating earthquakes that for more than 500 years came the type of event.
at intervals of close to 70 years. The last major earthquake
ravaged Tokyo in 1923, so everyone involved awaited
1993 with considerable apprehension. The risk steadily extrapolated to values larger than those in the historical
increased during those years as the strain across the fault record. Whether the extrapolation produces a reliable result
zone grew, as did the size of the population at risk. More is another question.
than 20 years later, no large earthquake has occurred. Obvi- The probability of the occurrence of an event is related
ously, the recurrence interval does not predict events at to the magnitude of the event. We see huge numbers of
equal intervals, in spite of the 500-year Japanese historical small events, many fewer large events, and only a rare giant
record. Nonetheless, the knowledge that scientists have of event (By the Numbers 1-1: Relationship between Frequency
the pattern of occurrences here helps them assess risk and and Magnitude). The infrequent occurrence of giant events
prepare for the eventual earthquake. Experts forecast that means it is hard to study them, but it is often rewarding to
there is a 70% chance that a major quake will strike that study small events because they may well be smaller-scale
region in the next 30 years. models of their uncommon larger counterparts that may
To estimate the recurrence interval of a particular kind occur in the future.
of natural event, we typically plot a graph of each event Many geologic features look the same regardless of their
size versus the time interval between sequential individual size, a quality that makes them fractal. A broadly general-
events. Such plots often make curved lines that cannot be ized map of the United States might show the Mississippi
reliably extrapolated to larger events that might lurk in the River with no tributaries smaller than the Ohio and Missouri
future (FIGURE 1-6). Plotting the same data on a logarith- Rivers. A more detailed map shows many smaller tributaries.
mic scale often leads to a straight-line graph that can be An even more detailed map shows still more. The number of
tributaries depends on the scale of the map, but the general
branching pattern looks similar across a wide range of scales
1,000 (FIGURE 1-7). Patterns apparent on a small scale quite com-
(cubic meters/sec)
Stream discharge
800 monly resemble patterns that exist on much larger scales that
(linear scale)
600 cannot be easily perceived. This means that small events may
provide insight into huge ones that occurred in the distant
400
past but are larger than any seen in historical time; we may
200 find evidence of these big events if we search. The geologic
0 record provides evidence for massive natural catastrophes in
1 10 100 1,000
the Earth’s distant past, such as the impact of a large asteroid
1,000 that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. We need to be
(cubic meters/sec)
aware of the potential for such extreme events in the future.

Stream discharge
100
(log scale)
10
0.1
1 10 100 1,000
Recurrence interval (years)
(Log scale)
High Frequency Low
FIGURE 1-6 Recurrence Interval

If major events are plotted on a linear scale (top graph, vertical
axis), the results often fall along a curve that cannot be
extrapolated to larger possible future events. If the same events FIGURE 1-7 Fractal Systems
are plotted on a logarithmic scale (bottom graph), the results The general pattern of a branching stream looks similar regardless
often fall along a straight line that can use historical data to of scale —from a less-detailed map on the left to the most
forecast what to expect in future events. detailed map on the right.
6 CHAPTER 1
It is impossible in our current state of knowledge to pre- other side of the fault. Might then the fault break more eas-
dict most natural events, even if we understand in a general ily and the next movement on the fault come sooner? Simi-
way what controls them. The problem of avoiding natural lar complex relationships arise with many other types of
disasters is like the problem drivers face in avoiding colli- destructive natural events.
sions with trains. They can do nothing to prevent trains, so Some processes result in still more rapid changes—a
they must look and listen. We have no way of knowing how feedback effect. For example, global warming causes more
firm the natural restraints on a landslide, fault, or volcano rapid melting of Arctic sea ice. The resulting darker sea water
may be. We also do not generally know what changes are absorbs more of the Sun’s energy than the white ice, which
occurring at depth. But we can be confident that the land- in turn causes even more sea ice melting. Similarly, global
slide or fault will eventually move or that the volcano will warming causes faster melting of the Greenland and Antarc-
erupt. And we can reasonably understand what those events tic ice sheets. More meltwater pours through fractures to the
will involve when they finally happen. base of the ice, where it lubricates movement, accelerating
the flow of ice toward the ocean. This leads to more rapid
crumbling of the toes of glaciers to form icebergs that melt
Relationships among Events in the ocean.
In other cases, an increase in one factor may actually lead
Although randomness is a factor in forecasting disasters, to a decrease in a related result. Often as costs of a product
most natural events do not occur as randomly as tosses of or service go up, usage goes down. With increased costs of
a coin. Some events are directly related to others—formed hydrocarbon fuels, people conserve more and thus burn
as a direct consequence of another event ( FIGURE 1-8 ). less. A rapid increase in the price of gasoline in 2008 led
For example, the slow movement of Earth’s huge outer lay- people to drive less and to trade in large SUVs and trucks for
ers colliding or sliding past one another clearly explains the smaller cars. In some places, commuter train, bus, and bicy-
driving forces behind volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. cle use increased dramatically. With the rising cost of elec-
Heavy or prolonged rainfall can cause a flood or a landslide. tricity, people are switching to compact fluorescent bulbs
But are some events unrelated? Could any of the arrows in and using less air conditioning. These changes had a notice-
Figure 1-8 be reversed? able effect on greenhouse gas emissions and their effect on
Past events can also create a contingency that influences climate change (discussed in Chapter 12).
future events. It is certainly true, for example, that sudden Sometimes major natural events are preceded by a series
movement on a fault causes an earthquake. But the same of smaller precursor events, which may warn of the impend-
movement also changes the stress on other parts of the fault ing disaster. Geologists studying the stirrings of Mt. St. Helens,
and probably on other faults in the region, so the next earth- Washington, before its catastrophic eruption in 1980 moni-
quake will likely differ considerably from the last. What if, tored swarms of earthquakes and decided that most of these
after an earthquake movement on a fault, one side of the recorded the movements of rising magma as it squeezed
fault is now across from a very slippery area of rock on the upward, expanding the volcano. Precursor events alert scien-
tists to the potential for larger events, but events that appear to
be precursors are not always followed by a major event.
The relationships among events are not always clear.
Plate tectonics/Mountain building
For example, an earthquake occurred at the instant
Mt. St. Helens exploded, and the expanding bulge over the
Earthquakes Weather/Climate rising magma collapsed in a huge landslide. Neither the
landslide nor the earthquake caused the formation of molten
Hurricanes magma, but did they trigger the final eruption? If so, which
Tsunamis one triggered the other—the earthquake, the landslide, or
the eruption? One or more of these possibilities could be
true in different cases.
Events can also overlap to amplify an effect. Most natu-
Volcanic eruptions Floods ral disasters happen when a number of unrelated variables
overlap in such a way that they reinforce each other to
amplify an effect. If the high water of a hurricane storm surge
Landslides
happens to arrive at the coast during the daily high tide, the
two reinforce each other to produce a much higher storm
FIGURE 1-8 Interactions among Natural Hazards surge (FIGURE 1-9). If this occurs on a section of coast that
Some natural disasters are directly related to others. The bolder happens to have a large population, then the situation can
arrows in this flowchart indicate stronger influences. Can you become a major disaster. Such a coincidence caused the
come up with words to describe these influences? catastrophic hurricane that killed 8000 people in Galveston,
Texas, in 1900.
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behind, a horse was dragging, with a long rope, a small, deeply
laden canal-boat, not pretty like this one, which went swiftly and
merrily along by steam. But at last it came to a stand, in front of two
huge wooden gates which shut the canal in, and through every
crevice of which the pent-in water kept spouting in tiny cataracts.
“That’s the first of the locks,” said papa, who had seen it all before,
and took his little girl to the end of the boat to show her the wonderful
sight.
She was not old enough to have it explained, or to understand what
a fine piece of engineering work this canal is. It cuts across country
from sea to sea, and the land not being level, but rising higher in the
middle, and as you know water will not run up a hillside and down
again, these locks had to be made. They are, so to speak, boxes of
water with double gates at either end. The boat is let into them, and
shut in; then the water upon which it floats is gradually raised or
lowered according as may be necessary, until it reaches the level of
the canal beyond the second gate, which is opened and the boat
goes in. There are eight or nine of these locks within a single mile,—
a very long mile, which occupies fully an hour. So the captain told his
passengers they might get out and walk, which many of them did.
But Sunshine, her papa and mamma, were much more amused in
watching the great gates opening and shutting, and the boat rising or
falling through the deep sides of the locks. Besides, the little girl
called it “a bath,” and expressed a strong desire to jump in and
“swim like a fish,” with mamma swimming after her! So mamma
thought it as well to hold her fast by her clothes the whole time.
Especially when another interest came,—three or four little Highland
girls running alongside, jabbering gayly, and holding out glasses of
milk. Her own bottle being nearly drained, Sunny begged for some;
and the extraordinary difficulty papa had in stretching over to get the
milk without spilling it, and return the empty glass without breaking it,
was a piece of fun more delightful than even the refreshing draught.
“Again!” she said, and wanted the performance all repeated for her
private amusement.
She had now resumed her old tyranny over her papa, whom she
pursued everywhere. He could not find a single corner of the boat in
which to hide and read his newspaper quietly, without hearing the
cry, “Where’s my papa? Sunny must go after papa,” and there was
the little figure clutching at his legs. “Take her up in your arms! up in
your own arms!” To which the victim, not unwillingly, consented, and
carried her everywhere.
Little Sunshine’s next great diversion was dinner. It did not happen
till late in the afternoon, when she had gone through, cheerfully as
ever, another change of boat, and was steaming away through the
open sea, which, however, was fortunately calm as a duck-pond, or
what would have become of this little person?
Papa questioned very much whether she was not far too little a
person to dine at the cabin-table with all the other grown-up
passengers, but mamma answered for her that she would behave
properly,—she always did whenever she promised. For Sunny has
the strongest sense of keeping a promise. Her one argument when
wanting a thing, an argument she knows never denied, is, “Mamma,
you promised.” And her shoemaker, who once neglected to send
home her boots, has been immortalised in her memory as “Mr.
James So-and-so, who broke his promise.”
So, having promised to be good, she gravely took her papa’s hand
and walked with him down the long cabin to her place at the table.
There she sat, quite quiet, and very proud of her position. She ate
little, being too deeply occupied in observing everything around her.
And she talked still less, only whispering mysteriously to her mamma
once or twice.
“Sunny would like a potato, with butter on it.” “Might Sunny have one
little biscuit—just one?”
But she troubled nobody, spilt nothing, not even her glass of water,
though it was so big that with both her fat hands she could scarcely
hold it; and said “Thank you” politely to a gentleman who handed her
a piece of bread. In short, she did keep her promise, conducting
herself throughout the meal with perfect decorum. But when it was
over, I think she was rather glad.
“Sunny may get down now?” she whispered; adding, “Sunny was
quite good, she was.” For the little woman always likes to have her
virtues acknowledged.
And in remounting the companion-ladder, rather a trial for her small
legs, she looked at the steward, who was taking his money, and
observed to him, in a confidential tone, “Sunny has had a good
dinner; Sunny liked it,”—at which the young man couldn’t help
laughing.
But everybody laughs at Sunny, or with her,—she has such an
endless fund of enjoyment in everything. The world to her is one
perpetual kaleidoscope of ever changing delights.
Immediately after dinner she had a pleasure quite new. Playing
about the deck, she suddenly stopped and listened.
“Mamma, hark! there’s music. May Sunny go after the music?” And
her little feet began to dance rather than walk, as, pulling her
mamma by the hand, she “went after” a German band that was
playing at the other end of the vessel.
Little Sunshine had never before heard a band, and this was of wind
instruments, played very well, as most German musicians can play.
The music seemed to quiver all through her, down to her very toes.
And when the dance-tune stopped, and her dancing feet likewise,
and the band struck up the beautiful “Wacht am Rhein,”—the “Watch
on the Rhine,”—(oh! if its singers had only stopped there, defending
their fatherland, and not invaded the lands of other people!), this little
girl, who knew nothing about French and Prussians, stood absorbed
in solemn delight. Her hands were folded together (a trick she has),
her face grew grave, and a soul far deeper than three years old
looked out of her intent eyes. For when Sunny is earnest, she is very
earnest; and when she turns furious, half a dozen tragedies seem
written in her firm-set mouth, knitted brow, and flashing eyes.
She was disposed to be furious for a minute, when her Lizzie tried to
get her away from the music. But her mamma let her stay, so she did
stay close to the musicians, until the playing was all done.
It was growing late in the afternoon, near her usual bedtime, but no
going to bed was possible. The steamboat kept ploughing on
through lonely seas, dotted with many islands, larger or smaller, with
high mountains on every side, some of them sloping down almost to
the water’s edge. Here and there was a solitary cottage or
farmhouse, but nothing like a town or village. The steamboat
seemed to have the whole world to itself,—sea, sky, mountains,—a
magnificent range of mountains! behind which the sun set in such
splendour that papa and mamma, watching it together, quite forgot
for the time being the little person who was not old enough to care
for sunsets.
When they looked up, catching the sound of her laughter, there she
was, in a state of the highest enjoyment, having made friends, all of
her own accord, with two gentlemen on board, who played with her
and petted her extremely. One of them had just taken out of his
pocket a wonderful bird, which jumped out of a box, shook itself,
warbled a most beautiful tune, and then popped down in the box
again; not exactly a toy for a child, as only about half a dozen have
ever been made, and they generally cost about a hundred guineas
apiece.
Of course Sunny was delighted. She listened intently to the warble,
and whenever the bird popped down and hid itself again, she gave a
scream of ecstasy. But she cannot enjoy things alone.
“May mamma come and see it? Mamma would like to see it, she
would!” And, running back, Sunny drew her mamma, with all her little
might, over to where the gentlemen were sitting.
They were very polite to the unknown lady, and went over the
performance once again for her benefit. And they were exceedingly
kind to her little girl, showing a patience quite wonderful, unless,
indeed, they had little girls of their own. They tried pertinaciously to
find out Sunny’s name, but she as persistently refused to disclose it,
—that is, anything more than her Christian name, which is rather a
peculiar one, and which she always gives with great dignity and
accuracy, at full length. (Which, should they really have little girls of
their own, and should they buy this book for them and read it, those
two gentlemen will probably remember; nor think the worse of
themselves that their kindness helped to while away what might
otherwise have been rather dreary, the last hour of the voyage,—a
very long voyage for such a small traveller.)
It was ended at last. The appointed pier, a solitary place where only
one other passenger was landed, stood out distinct in the last rays of
sunset. Once again the child was carried across one of those shaky
gangways,—neither frightened nor cross and quite cheerful and wide
awake still. Nay, she even stopped at the pier-head, her attention
caught by some creatures more weary than herself.
Half a dozen forlorn sheep, their legs tied together, and their heads
rolling about, with the most piteous expression in their open eyes, lay
together, waiting to be put on board. The child went up to them and
stroked their faces.
“Poor little baa-lambs, don’t be so frightened; you won’t be
frightened, now Sunny has patted you,” said she, in her tenderest
voice. And then, after having walked a few yards:
“Sunny must go back. Please, mamma, may Sunny go back to say
good-bye to those poor little baa-lambs?”
But the baa-lambs had already been tossed on board, and the
steamer was away with them into the dark.
Into the dark poor little Sunny had also to go; a drive of nine miles
across country, through dusky glens, and coming out by loch sides,
and under the shadow of great mountains, above whose tops the
stars were shining. Only the stars, for there was no moon, and no
lamps to the carriage; and the driver, when spoken to, explained—in
slow Highland English, and in a mournful manner, evidently not
understanding the half of what was said to him—that there were
several miles farther to go, and several hills to climb yet; and that the
horse was lame, and the road not as safe as it might be. A prospect
which made the elders of the party not perfectly happy, as may well
be imagined.
But the child was as merry as possible, though it was long past her
tea-time and she had had no tea, and past bedtime, yet there was no
bed to go to; she kept on chattering till it was quite dark, and then
cuddled down, making “a baby” of her mamma’s hand,—a favourite
amusement. And so she lay, the picture of peace, until the carriage
stopped at the welcome door, and there stood a friendly group with
two little boys in front of it. After eleven hours of travelling, Little
Sunshine had reached a shelter at last!
CHAPTER VI.
Sunrise among the mountains. Who that has ever seen it can forget
it? Sunny’s mamma never could.
Arriving here after dark, she knew no more of the place than the
child did. But the first thing she did on waking next morning was to
creep past the sofa where Sunny lay,—oh, so fast asleep! having
had a good scream overnight, as was natural after all her fatigues,—
steal cautiously to the window, and look out.
Such a sight! At the foot of a green slope, or sort of rough lawn, lay
the little loch so often spoken of, upon which Sunny was to go a-
fishing and catch big salmon with Maurice’s papa. Round it was a
ring of mountains, so high that they seemed to shut out half the sky.
These were reflected in the water, so solidly and with such a sharp,
clear outline, that one could hardly believe it was only a reflection.
Above their summit was one mass of deep rose-colour, and this also
was repeated in the loch, so that you could not tell which was
reddest, the water or the sky. Everything was perfectly still; not a
ripple moved, not a leaf stirred, not a bird was awake. An altogether
new and magic world.
Sunny was too much of a baby yet to care for sunrise, or, indeed, for
anything just now, except a good long sleep, so her mamma let her
sleep her fill; and when she woke at last she was as bright as a bird.
Long before she was dressed, she heard down-stairs the voices of
the five little boys who were to be her companions. Their papa and
mamma having no objection to their names being told, I give them,
for they were five very pretty names: Maurice, Phil, Eddie, Franky,
and Austin Thomas. The latter being the youngest, though by no
means the smallest or thinnest, generally had his name in full, with
variations, such as Austin Tummas, or Austin Tummacks. Maurice,
too, was occasionally called Maurie,—but not often, being the eldest,
you see.
He was seven, very small for his age, but with a face almost angelic
in its delicate beauty. The first time Sunny saw him, a few months
before, she had seemed quite fascinated by it, put her two hands on
his shoulders, and finally held up her mouth to kiss him,—which she
seldom does to any children, rather preferring “grown-ups,” as she
calls them, for playfellows. She had talked ever since of Maurice,
Maurice’s papa, Maurice’s boat, and especially of Maurice’s “little
baby,” the only sister of the five boys. Yet when he came to greet her
this morning, she was quite shy, and would not play with him or
Eddie, or even Franky, who was nearer her own age; and when her
mamma lifted up Austin Thomas, younger than herself but much
bigger in every way, and petted him a little, this poor little woman fell
into great despair.
“Don’t kiss him. I don’t want you to kiss Austin Thomas!” she cried,
and the passion which can rise at times in her merry blue eyes rose
now. She clung to her mamma, almost sobbing.
Of course this was not right, and, as I said before, the little girl is not
a perfect little girl. She is naughty at times, like all of us. Still,
mamma was rather sorry for her. It was difficult for an only child,
accustomed to have her mamma all to herself, to tumble suddenly
into such a crowd of boys, and see that mamma could be kind to and
fond of other children besides her own, as all mothers ought to be,
without taking away one atom from the special mother’s love, which
no little people need be jealous over. Sunny bore the trial pretty well,
on the whole. She did not actually cry,—but she kept fast hold of her
mamma’s gown, and watched her with anxious eyes whenever she
spoke to any other child, and especially to Austin Thomas.
The boys were very kind to her. Maurice went and took hold of her
hand, trying to talk to her in his gentle way; his manners were as
sweet as his face. Eddie, who was stronger and rougher, and more
boyish, wanted her to go down with him to the pier,—a small erection
of stones at the shallow edge of the loch, where two or three boats
always lay moored. Consequently the boys kept tumbling in and out
of them,—and in and out of the water, too, very often,—all day long.
But the worst they ever could get was a good wetting,—except
Austin Thomas, who one day toddled in and slipped down, and,
being very fat, could not pull himself up again; so that, shallow as the
water was, he was very near being drowned. But Maurice and Eddie
were almost “water babies,”—so thoroughly at home in the loch,—
and Eddie, though under six years old, could already handle an oar.
“I can low” (row,—he could not speak plain yet). “I once lowed
grandpapa all across the loch. Shall I low you and the little girl?”
But mamma rather hesitated at accepting the kind offer, and
compromised the matter by going down to the pier with Sunny in her
arms, to watch Eddie “low,”—about three yards out and back again,
—in a carefully moored boat. Sunny immediately wanted to go too,
and mamma promised her she should, after breakfast, when papa
was there to take care of her.
So the little party went back to the raised terrace in front of the
house, where the sun was shining so bright, and where Phil, who
was in delicate health, stood looking on with his pale, quiet face,—
sadly quiet and grave for such a child,—and Franky, who was
reserved and shy, stopped a moment in his solitary playing to notice
the newcomer, but did not offer to go near her. Austin Thomas,
however, kept pulling at her with his stout, chubby arms, but whether
he meant caressing or punching it was difficult to say. Sunny
opposed a dignified resistance, and would not look at Austin Thomas
at all.
“Mamma, I want to stop with you. May Sunny stop with you?”
implored she. “You said Sunny should go in the boat with you.”
Mamma always does what she says, if she possibly can, and,
besides, she felt a sympathy for her lonely child, who had not been
much used to play with other children. So she kept Sunny beside her
till they went down together—papa too—for their first row on the
loch.
Such a splendid day! Warm but fresh—how could it help being fresh
in that pure mountain air, which turned Sunny’s cheeks the colour of
opening rosebuds, and made even papa and mamma feel almost as
young as she? Big people like holidays as well as little people, and it
was long since they had had a holiday. This was the very perfection
of one, when everybody did exactly as they liked; which consisted
chiefly in doing nothing from morning till night.
Sunny was the only person who objected to idleness. She must
always be doing something.
“I want to catch fishes,” said she, after having sat quiet by mamma’s
side in the stern of the boat for about three minutes and a half:
certainly not longer, though it was the first time she had ever been in
a boat in all her life, and the novelty of her position sufficed to sober
her for just that length of time. “I want to catch big salmon all by my
own self.”
A fishing-rod had, just as a matter of ceremony, been put into the
boat; but as papa held the two oars, and mamma the child, it was
handed over to Lizzie, who sat in the bow. However, not a single
trout offering to bite, it was laid aside, and papa’s walking-stick used
instead. This was shorter, more convenient, and had a beautiful
hooked handle, which could catch floating leaves. Leaves were
much more easily caught than fishes, and did quite as well.
Little Sunshine goes fishing.
The little girl had now her heart’s desire. She was in a boat fishing.
“Sunny has caught a fish! Such a big fish!” cried she, in her shrillest
treble of delight, every time that event happened. And it happened
so often that the bench was soon quite “soppy” with wet leaves.
Then she gave up the rod, and fished with her hands, mamma
holding her as tight as possible, lest she should overbalance, and be
turned into a fish herself. But water will wet; and mamma could not
save her from getting her poor little hands all blue and cold, and her
sleeves soaked through. She did not like this; but what will not we
endure, even at two and three-quarters old, in pursuit of some great
ambition? It was not till her hands were numbed, and her pinafore
dripping, that Sunny desisted from her fishing, and then only
because her attention was caught by something else even more
attractive.
“What’s that, mamma? What’s that?”
“Water-lilies.”
Papa, busily engaged in watching his little girl, had let the boat drift
upon a shoal of them, which covered one part of the loch like a
floating island. They were so beautiful, with their leaves lying like
green plates flat on the surface of the water, and their white flowers
rising up here and there like ornamental cups. No wonder the child
was delighted.
“Sunny wants a water-lily,” said she, catching the word, though she
had never heard it before. “May Sunny have one, two water-lilies?
Two water-lilies! Please, mamma?”
This was more easily promised than performed, for, in spite of papa’s
skill, the boat always managed to glide either too far off, or too close
to, or right on the top of the prettiest flowers; and when snatched at,
they always would dive down under water, causing the boat to lurch
after them in a way particularly unpleasant. At last, out of about a
dozen unsuccessful attempts, papa captured two expanded flowers,
and one bud, all with long stalks. They were laid along the seat of
the boat, which had not capsized, nor had anybody tumbled out of it,
—a thing that mamma considered rather lucky, upon the whole, and
insisted on rowing away out of the region of water-lilies.
“Let us go up the canal, then,” said papa, whom his host had already
taken there, to show him a very curious feature of the loch.
Leading out of one end of it, and communicating between it and a
stream that fed it from the neighbouring glen, was a channel, called
“the canal.” Unlike most Highland streams, it was as still as a canal;
only it was natural, not artificial. Its depth was so great, that a stick
fifteen feet long failed to find the bottom, which, nevertheless, from
the exceeding clearness of the water, could be seen quite plain, with
the fishes swimming about, and the pebbles, stones, or roots of trees
too heavy to float, lying as they had lain, undisturbed, year after year.
The banks, instead of shallowing off, went sheer down, as deep as in
the middle, so that you could paddle close under the trees that
fringed them,—gnarled old oaks, queerly twisted rowans or beeches,
and nut-trees with trunks so thick and branches so wide-spreading,
that the great-great-grandfathers of the glen must have gone nutting
there generations back.
Yet this year they were as full as ever of nuts, the gathering of which
frightened mamma nearly as much as the water-lilies. For papa,
growing quite excited, would stand up in the boat and pluck at the
branches, and would not see that nutting on dry land, and nutting in
a boat over fifteen or twenty feet of water, were two very different
things. Even the little girl, imitating her elders, made wild snatches at
the branches, and it was the greatest relief to mamma’s mind when
Sunny turned her attention to cracking her nuts, which her sharp little
teeth did to perfection.
“Shall I give you one, mamma? Papa, too?” And she administered
them by turns out of her mouth, which, if not the politest, was the
most convenient way. At last she began singing a song to herself,
“Three little nuts all together! three little nuts all together!” Looking
into the little girl’s shut hands, mamma found—what she in all her
long life had never found but once before, and that was many, many
years ago—a triple nut,—a “lucky” nut; as great a rarity as a four-
leaved shamrock.
“Oh, what a prize! will Sunny give it to mamma?” (which she did
immediately). “And mamma will put it carefully by, and keep it for
Sunny till she is grown a big girl.”
“Sunny is a big girl now; Sunny cracks nuts for papa and mamma.”
Nevertheless, mamma kept the triple nut, as she remembered her
own mamma keeping the former one, when she herself was a little
girl. When Sunny grows a woman, she will find both.
Besides nuts, there were here and there along the canal-side long
trailing brambles, with such huge blackberries on them,—
blackberries that seem to take a malicious pleasure in growing
where nobody can get at them. Nobody could gather them except
out of a boat, and then with difficulty. The best of them had, after all,
to be left to the birds.
Oh, what a place this canal must have been for birds in spring! What
safe nests might be built in these overhanging trees! what ceaseless
songs sung there from morning till night! Now, being September,
there were almost none. Dead silence brooded over the sunshiny
crags and the motionless loch. When, far up among the hills, there
was heard the crack of a gun,—Maurice’s papa’s gun, for it could of
course be no other,—the sound, echoed several times over, was
quite startling. What had been shot,—a grouse, a snipe, a wild duck?
Perhaps it was a roe-deer? Papa was all curiosity; but mamma, who
dislikes shooting altogether, either of animals or men, and cannot
endure the sight of a gun, even unloaded, was satisfied with hearing
it at a distance, and counting its harmless echoes from mountain to
mountain.
What mountains they were!—standing in a circle, gray, bare, silent,
with their peaks far up into the sky. Some had been climbed by the
gentlemen in this shooting-lodge or by Donald, the keeper, but it was
hard work, and some had never been climbed at all. The clouds and
mists floated over them, and sometimes, perhaps, a stray grouse, or
capercailzie, or ptarmigan, paid them a visit, but that was all. They
were too steep and bare even for the roe-deer. Yet, oh! how grand
they looked, grand and calm, like great giants, whom nothing small
and earthly could affect at all.
The mountains were too big, as yet, for Little Sunshine. Her baby
eyes did not take them in. She saw them, of course, but she was
evidently much more interested in the nuts overhead, and the fishes
under water. And when the boat reached “The Bower,” she thought it
more amusing still.
“The Bower,” so called, was a curious place, where the canal grew
so narrow, and the trees so big, that the overarching boughs met in
the middle, forming a natural arbour,—only of water, not land,—
under which the boat swept for a good many yards. You had to stoop
your head to avoid being caught by the branches, and the ferns and
moss on either bank grew so close to your hand, that you could
snatch at them as you swept by, which Little Sunshine thought the
greatest fun in the world.
“Mamma, let me do it. Please, let Sunny do it her own self.”
To do a thing “all my own self” is always a great attraction to this
independent little person, and her mamma allows it whenever
possible. Still there are some things which mamma may do, and little
people may not, and this was one of them. It was obliged to be
forbidden as dangerous, and Little Sunshine clouded over almost to
tears. But she never worries her mamma for things, well aware that
“No,” means no, and “Yes,” yes; and that neither are subject to
alteration. And the boat being speedily rowed out of temptation’s way
into the open loch again, she soon found another amusement.
On the loch, besides water-fowl, such as wild ducks, teal, and the
like, lived a colony of geese. They had once been tame geese
belonging to the farm, but they had emigrated, and turned into wild
geese, making their nests wherever they liked, and bringing up their
families in freedom and seclusion. As to catching them like ordinary
geese, it was hopeless; whenever wanted for the table they had to
be shot like game. This catastrophe had not happened lately, and
they swam merrily about,—a flock of nine large, white, lively,
independent birds, which could be seen far off, sailing about like a
fleet of ships on the quiet waters of the loch. They would allow you to
row within a reasonable distance of them, just so close and no
closer, then off they flew in a body, with a great screeching and
flapping of wings,—geese, even wild geese, being rather unwieldy
birds.
Their chief haunt was a tiny island just at the mouth of the canal, and
there papa rowed, just to have a look at them, for one was to be shot
for the Michaelmas dinner. (It never was, by the by, and, for all I
know, still sails cheerfully upon its native loch.)
“Oh, the ducks—the ducks!” (Sunny calls all water-birds ducks.) She
clapped her hands, and away they flew, right over her head, at once
frightening and delighting her; then watched them longingly until they
dropped down again, and settled in the farthest corner of the loch.
“Might Sunny go after them? Might Sunny have a dear little duck to
play with?”
The hopelessness of which desire might have made her turn
melancholy again, only just then appeared, rowing with great energy,
bristling with fishing-rods, and crowded with little people as well as
“grown-ups,” the big boat. It was so busy that it hardly condescended
to notice the little pleasure-boat, with only idle people, sailing about
in the sunshine, and doing nothing more useful than catching water-
lilies and frightening geese.
Still the little boat greeted the large one with an impertinent hail of
“Ship ahoy! what ship’s that?” and took in a cargo of small boys,
who, as it was past one o’clock, were wanted home to the nursery
dinner. And papa rowed the whole lot of them back to the pier, where
everybody was safely landed. Nobody tumbled in, and nobody was
drowned,—which mamma thought, on the whole, was a great deal to
be thankful for.
CHAPTER VII.
Life at the glen went on every day alike, in the simplest, happiest
fashion, a sort of paradise of children, as in truth it was. Even the
elders lived like children; and big people and little people were
together, more or less, all day long. A thing not at all objectionable
when the children are good children, as these were.
The boys were noisy, of course, and, after the first hour of the
morning, clean faces, hands, and clothes became a difficulty quite
insurmountable, in which their mother had to resign herself to fate;
as the mamma of five boys, running about wild in the Highlands,
necessarily must. But these were good, obedient, gentlemanly little
fellows, and, had it been possible to keep them clean and whole,
which it wasn’t, very pretty little fellows, too.
Of course they had a few boyish propensities, which increased the
difficulty. Maurice, for instance, had an extraordinary love for all
creeping things, and especially worms. On the slightest pretence of
getting bait to fish with, he would go digging for them, and stuff them
into his pockets, whence, if you met him, you were as likely as not to
see one or two crawling out. If you remonstrated, he looked
unhappy, for Maurice really loved his worms. He cherished them
carefully, and did not in the least mind their crawling over his hands,
his dress, or his plate. Only, unfortunately, other people did. When
scolded, he put his pets meekly aside, but always returned to them
with the same love as ever. Perhaps Maurice may turn out a great
naturalist some day.
The one idea of Eddie’s life was boats. He was for ever at the little
pier waiting a chance of a row, and always wanting to “low”
somebody, especially with “two oars,” which he handled
uncommonly well for so small a child. Fortunately for him, though not
for his papa and the salmon-fishers, the weather was dead calm, so
that it was like paddling on a duck-pond; and the loch being shallow
just at the pier, except a few good wettings, which he seemed to
mind as little as if he were a frog, bright, brave, adventurous Eddie
came to no harm.
Nor Franky, who imitated him admiringly whenever he could. But
Franky, who was rather a reserved little man, and given to playing
alone, had, besides the pier, another favourite play-place, a hollow
cut out in the rock to receive the burn which leaped down from the
hillside just behind the house. Being close to the kitchen door, it was
put to all sorts of domestic uses, being generally full of pots and
pans, saucepans and kettles,—not the most advisable playthings,
but Franky found them charming. He also unluckily found out
something else,—that the hollow basin had an outlet, through which
any substance, sent swimming down the swift stream, swam away
beautifully for several yards, and then disappeared underground.
And the other end of this subterraneous channel being in the loch, of
course it disappeared for ever. In this way there vanished
mysteriously all sorts of things,—cups and saucers, toys, pinafores,
hats; which last Franky was discovered in the act of making away
with, watching them floating off with extreme delight. It was no moral
crime, and hardly punishable, but highly inconvenient. Sunny’s
beloved luggie, which had been carried about with her for weeks,
was believed to have disappeared in this way, and, as it could not
sink, is probably now drifting somewhere about on the loch, to the
great perplexity of the fishes.
Little Phil, alas! was too delicate to be mischievous. He crept about
in the sunshine, not playing with anybody, but just looking on at the
rest, with his pale, sweet, pensive face. He was very patient and
good, and he suffered very much. One day, hearing his uncle at
family prayers pray that God would make him better, he said, sadly,
“If He does, I wish He would make haste about it.” Which was the
only complaint gentle, pathetic little Phil was ever heard to utter.
Sunny regarded him with some awe, as “the poor little boy who was
so ill.” For herself, she has never yet known what illness is; but she
is very sympathetic over it in others. Anybody’s being “not well” will
at once make her tender and gentle; as she always was to Phil. He
in his turn was very kind to her, lending her his “music,” which was
the greatest favour he could bestow or she receive.
This “music” was a box of infantile instruments, one for each boy,—
trumpet, drum, fife, etc., making a complete band, which a rash-
minded but affectionate aunt had sent them, and with which they
marched about all day long, to their own great delight and the
corresponding despair of their elders. Phil, who had an ear, would go
away quietly with his “music,”—a trumpet, I think it was,—and play it
all by himself. But the others simply marched about in procession,
each making the biggest noise he could, and watched by Sunny with
admiration and envy. Now and then, out of great benevolence, one
of the boys would lend her his instrument, and nobody did this so
often as Phil, though of them all he liked playing his music the best.
The picture of him sitting on the door-step, with his pale fingers
wandering over his instrument, and his sickly face looking almost
contented as he listened to the sound, will long remain in
everybody’s mind. Sunny never objected to her mamma’s carrying
him, as he often had to be carried; though he was fully six years old.
He was scarcely heavier than the little girl herself. Austin Thomas
would have made two of him.
Austin’s chief peculiarity was this amiable fatness. He tumbled about
like a roly-poly pudding, amusing everybody, and offending no one
but Little Sunshine. But his persistent pursuit of her mamma, whom
he insisted on calling “Danmamma” (grandmamma), and following
whenever he saw her, was more than the little girl could bear, and
she used to knit her brows and look displeased. However, mamma
never took any notice, knowing what a misery to itself and all about it
is a jealous child.
Amidst these various amusements passed the day. It began at 8 a.
m., when Sunshine and her mamma usually appeared on the terrace
in front of the house. They two were “early birds,” and so they got
“the worm,”—that is, a charming preliminary breakfast of milk, bread
and butter, and an egg, which they usually ate on the door-step.
Sometimes the rest, who had had their porridge, the usual breakfast
of Scotch children,—and very nice it is, too,—gathered around for a
share; which it was pleasant to give them, for they waited so quietly,
and were never rough or rude.
Nevertheless, sometimes difficulties arose. The tray being placed on
the gravel, Maurice often sat beside it, and his worms would crawl
out of his pocket and on to the bread and butter. Then Eddie now
and then spilt the milk, and Austin Thomas would fill the salt-cellar
with sand out of the gravel walk, and stir it all up together with the
egg-spoon; a piece of untidiness which Little Sunshine resented
extremely.
She had never grown reconciled to Austin Thomas. In spite of his
burly good-nature, and his broad beaming countenance (which
earned him the nickname of “Cheshire,” from his supposed likeness
to the Cheshire Cat in “Alice’s Adventures”), she refused to play with
him; whenever he appeared, her eye followed him with distrust and
suspicion, and when he said “Danmamma,” she would contradict him
indignantly.
“It isn’t grandmamma, it’s my mamma, my own mamma. Go away,
naughty boy!” If he presumed to touch the said mamma, it was
always, “Take me up in your arms, in your own arms,”—so as to
prevent all possibility of Austin Thomas’s getting there.

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(eBook PDF) Natural Hazards and

Disasters 5th Edition

Ground Motion and Failure during Earthquakes 51

Chapter Review 408 Extratropical Cyclones and Nor’easters 457

Mark Olsen, NJ Army National Guard

Catastrophes in Nature sudden movements. During an earthquake, a mountain can

March 30, 2007 December 12, 2013

Courtesy of the Utah Geological Survey (UGS)

FIGURE 1-1 The Unexpected

FIGURE 1-3 Hazard-Related Deaths

Natural Hazards and Disasters 3

2012: Hurricane Sandy

300 2008: Hurricanes Ike, Gustav

1976: Tangshan, China earthquake

Insured losses Uninsured losses 10-year average 10-year average

FIGURE 1-4 Increasing Costs of Natural Hazards

Natural Hazards and Disasters 5

aware of the potential for such extreme events in the future.

FIGURE 1-6 Recurrence Interval

Natural Hazards and Disasters 7

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