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Chapter Summary
In this chapter we will learn why small samples from large populations can
provide researchers with detailed information and estimates about characteristics of the
entire population. Yet, there is a certain amount of randomness whenever we study
samples as opposed to entire populations. Fortunately, statisticians have developed
numerous ways for researchers to account for any random errors that may occur in
political research. Knowing the random error in any research project allows us to make
estimates about many things in the political world such as a president’s approval rating
or support for a particular policy even without surveying every individual in the
population. The key to doing this is to ensure that samples are both random and
representative of the population being studied. Otherwise, all bets are off.
Discussion Questions
1. Think about an interesting survey you might like to conduct. How would you
set it up? Why is it essential that subjects for the study be chosen randomly?
How can you be sure that the subjects are representative of the entire
population? What could happen if they are not?
2. Every sample has a certain amount of random error associated with it. Polls,
for example, often report the percentage of citizens who support or oppose a
particular issue within a margin of error, typically between two and four points
above or below the reported number. Does this give you confidence in the
accuracy of the numbers or not? If not, why not? What would the researcher
need to do to gain your confidence?
Random Sampling
How a sample is selected is a very important part of political research. In
order to obtain an accurate estimate of a population parameter, it is
essential that the researcher use a random sample.
Discuss Literary Digest poll prior to 1936 Presidential Election predicting
victory for Alf Landon.
A sampling frame defines the population the researcher desires to study.
A poorly conceived sampling frame may doom a research project by
introducing selection bias or a number of other problems.
Response bias occurs when some cases in the sample are more likely
than others to be measured.
Random selection of the sample ensures that every member of the
population has an equal chance of being included in the sample.
Use of random selection introduces random sampling error, which is defined
as the extent to which a sample statistic varies by chance from the true
population parameter.
Population parameter = sample statistic + random sampling error.
Random sampling error consists of two elements: the size of the sample
and the amount of variation in the population characteristic being
measured.
Thus, random sampling error = variation component/sample size
component
Sample size component is equal to the square root of the sample size
(√n).
Variation component is measured using the standard deviation.
n and σ
The sample size component (n): As the sample size goes up, random
sampling error declines as a function of the square root of the sampling size.
Variation component: As variation goes up, random sampling error increases
in direct relation to the population’s standard deviation (σ).
Exercises
Web Resources
1. Watch the following video about sampling:
http://study.com/academy/lesson/probability-sampling-methods-definition-
types.html