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CHAPTER 8
Public Opinion and Voting
LEARNING OUTCOMES
8-1 Explain how public opinion polls are conducted, problems with polls, and how they are
used in the political process.
8-2 Describe the political socialization process.
8-3 Discuss the different factors that affect voter choices.
8-4 Indicate some of the factors that affect voter turnout, and discuss what has been done to
improve voter turnout and voting procedures.
SUMMARY OVERVIEW
Public opinion is the sum total of a complex collection of opinions held by many people on issues
in the public arena. Public officials commonly learn about public opinion through election results,
personal contacts, interest groups, and media reports. The best way to measure public opinion
between elections, however, appears to be through the use of public opinion polls. A public
opinion poll is a survey of the public’s opinion on a particular topic at a particular moment.
Public opinion pollsters have devised scientific polling techniques for measuring public opinion
through the use of samples.
Early polling efforts relied on straw polls. The opinions expressed in straw polls, however,
usually represent an atypical subgroup of the population, or a biased sample. Today, polling is
used extensively by political candidates and policymakers. Polls can be quite accurate when they
are conducted properly. A sample must consist of people who are typical of the population. The
most important principle in sampling is randomness. A random sample means that each person
within the entire population being polled has an equal chance of being chosen.
Public opinion polls are fundamentally statistical. The true result of a poll is not a single figure,
but a range of probabilities. Sampling error is the difference between what the poll shows and
what the results would have been if everyone in the relevant population had been interviewed.
Based on their differing statistical models, some polling firms consistently publish results more
favorable to one or the other of the two major parties than the results released by other pollsters—
a phenomenon known as a house effect.
To obtain accurate results, pollsters want to ensure that there is no bias in their polling questions,
and they must be aware that opinion polls of voter preferences cannot reflect rapid shifts in public
opinion unless they are taken frequently. The reliability of polls was called into question by the
use of exit polls in the 2000 presidential elections.
Today, a frequently heard complaint is that, instead of measuring public opinion, polls can end up
creating it. To gain popularity, a candidate might claim that all the polls show that he or she is
ahead in the race, and thus help to create a “bandwagon” effect. The media also sometimes
misuse polls. Many journalists base their political coverage during campaigns almost exclusively
on poll findings. Media companies often report only the polls conducted by their affiliated
pollsters. One tactic in political campaigns is to use push polls, which ask “fake” polling
questions that are actually designed to “push” voters toward one candidate or another.
Most people acquire their political attitudes, opinions, beliefs, and knowledge through a complex
learning process called political socialization, which begins during early childhood and continues
throughout life. Most political socialization is informal. The strong early influence of the family
later gives way to the multiple influences of school, church, peers, television, co-workers, and
other groups. People and institutions that influence the political views of others are called agents
of political socialization.
The family’s influence is strongest when children can clearly perceive their parents’ attitudes.
Education also strongly influences an individual’s political attitudes. From their earliest days in
school, children learn about the American political system. They also learn citizenship skills
through school rules and regulations. Generally, those with more education have more knowledge
about politics and policy than those with less education. A majority of Americans hold strong
religious beliefs, and these attitudes can also contribute significantly to political socialization.
The media also have an impact on political socialization. Television continues to be a leading
source of political information for older voters. Opinion leaders, major life events, peer groups,
economic status, and occupation may also influence a person’s political views.
What persuades voters to choose certain kinds of candidates? For established voters, party
identification is one of the most important and lasting predictors of how a person will vote.
Voters often base their decisions on the perceived character of the candidates rather than on their
qualifications or policy positions. When people vote for candidates who share their positions on
particular issues, they are engaging in policy voting. With respect to policy voting, economic
issues historically have had the strongest influence on voters’ choices.
Socioeconomic factors also influence how people vote. These factors include educational
attainment, occupation and income, age, gender, religion and ethnic background, and geographic
region. Ideology is another indicator of voting behavior.
Some historical restrictions on voting, including religion, property ownership, and tax-payment
requirements, disappeared early on in the history of the republic. Restrictions based on race and
gender continued, however. The Fifteenth Amendment to the Constitution (1870) guaranteed
suffrage to African American males. Yet, for many decades, African Americans were effectively
denied the ability to exercise their voting rights. Today, devices used to restrict voting rights, such
as the poll tax, literacy tests, the grandfather clause, and white primaries, are explicitly outlawed
by constitutional amendments, by the Voting Rights Act of 1965, or by Supreme Court decisions.
Furthermore, the Nineteenth Amendment (1920) gave women the right to vote, and the Twenty-
sixth Amendment (1971) reduced the minimum voting age to eighteen.
Some restrictions on voting rights, such as registration, residency, and citizenship requirements,
still exist. Most states also do not permit prison inmates or felons to vote. Attempts to improve
voter turnout and voting procedures include simplifying the voter-registration process, allowing
voting by mail, early voting, and updating voting equipment. Just because an individual is eligible
to vote does not necessarily mean that the person will go to the polls on Election Day. Voter
turnout is affected by several factors, including educational attainment, income level, age, and
minority status.
CHAPTER OUTLINE
8-0 Introduction
• Public opinion is a vital component of our political system in America.
Types of Polls
Sampling
• A sample must consist of people who are typical of the population.
• The most important principle in sampling is randomness.
• A random sample means that each person within the entire population
being polled has an equal chance of being chosen.
What Polls Really Tell Us
• There are still concerns about the general reliability of polls, however,
that poll takers must be made aware.
• Public opinion polls are fundamentally statistical.
o The true result of a poll is not a single figure, but a range of
probabilities.
• Sampling error is the difference between what the poll shows and what
the results would have been if everyone in the relevant population had
been interviewed.
Statistical Modeling and House Effects
• If the pollster uses a flawed model to adjust for the fact that it is almost
impossible to obtain a body of respondents that truly reflects the
population at large, the poll results will be off as well.
WEIGHTING DIFFICULTIES.
HOUSE EFFECTS.
• Based on their differing models, some polling firms consistently publish
results more favorable to one or the other of the two major parties than
the results released by other pollsters—a phenomenon known as a
house effect.
Bias in Framing Questions
• How poll questions are phrased can affect how people answer them.
AN EXAMPLE: THE BIRTH CONTROL CONTROVERSY.
YES AND NO QUESTIONS.
INADEQUATE INFORMATION.
Timing of Polls
• Opinion polls of voter preferences cannot reflect rapid shifts in public
opinion unless they are taken frequently.
Exit Polls
• The reliability of polls was called into question by the use of exit polls in
the 2000 presidential elections.
• Based on exit polls conducted by the Voter News Service (VNS), a
consortium of news networks, the outcome of the presidential race in
Florida was called wrong—not just once, but twice.
• In 2008, the television networks were careful about making predictions
based on exit polls.
Misuse of Polls
• Today a frequently heard complaint is that, instead of measuring public
opinion, polls can end up creating it.
o A candidate might claim that all the polls show that he or she is
ahead in the race; people who want to support the winner may
back this candidate despite their true feelings.
o This is often called the “bandwagon” effect.
• Many journalists base their political coverage during campaigns almost
exclusively on poll findings.
• Media companies often report only the polls conducted by their affiliated
pollsters.
AFRICAN AMERICANS.
• Most African Americans are Protestants, but African Americans are one
of the most solidly Democratic constituencies in the United States.
• Latino voters have supported the Democrats by margins of about two to
one, though Cuban Americans are strongly Republican.
MUSLIM AMERICANS.
• Today, Muslims are the most Democratic religious group in the nation.
Geographic Region
• In today’s presidential contests, states in the South, the Great Plains, and
parts of the Rocky Mountains are strongly Republican.
• The Northeast, the West Coast, and Illinois are firmly Democratic.
• Many of the swing states that decide elections are located in the
Midwest.
• This pattern is almost a complete reversal of the one that existed a
century ago, when the Solid South was solidly Democratic.
• The ideologies of the two parties have likewise undergone something of
a reversal.
o One hundred years ago, the Democrats were seen as less likely
than the Republicans to support government intervention in the
economy.
o The Democrats were also the party that opposed civil rights.
8-3e Ideology
• For many Americans, where they fall in the political spectrum is a strong
indicator of how they will vote.
o Liberals (about 21 percent of the population) vote for Democrats
and conservatives (about 40 percent of the population) vote for
Republicans.
o In most elections, the candidates compete aggressively for the
moderates (about 35 percent of the population) because they
know their “base” is secure.
The Vital Center
• The position between the political extremes has been called the vital
center.
• Without it, necessary compromises may be difficult, if not impossible,
to achieve.
Ideology in Recent Elections
THE CONSERVATIVE TRIUMPH.
• The severe polarization in Congress and in American politics generally
made it hard for the vital center to play a role in the midterm elections
of 2010.
IDEOLOGY AND THE 2012 ELECTIONS.
LECTURE LAUNCHERS
1. Is it likely that a gender gap will continue to characterize voter decision making in
presidential elections?
2. Though the source of the statement is in doubt, it is part of American folklore that a
politician once remarked, “A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to
the polls.” True enough. What else does low voter turnout indicate?
IN-CLASS ACTIVITIES
1. Find examples of polls that measure public opinion about particular political issues in
newspapers or on the Internet. Compare the polling methods that were used and the way
the questions were phrased. Discuss the reliability of the results. Do you agree with the
opinions that are expressed in the polls? Should public policy be based on poll results?
2. Analyze voting by groups in the 2012 presidential elections. How important were
socioeconomic factors in determining the outcome? Is it likely that the Democratic and
Republican presidential nominees will win similar percentages of votes from these
groups in 2016?
KEY TERMS
agents of political socialization People and institutions that influence the political views
of others.
biased sample A poll sample that does not accurately represent the population.
gender gap The difference between the percentage of votes cast for a particular candidate by
women and the percentage of votes cast for the same candidate by men.
grandfather clause A clause in a state law that had the effect of restricting the franchise (voting
rights) to those whose ancestors had voted before the 1860s. It was one of the techniques
used in the South to prevent African Americans from exercising their right to vote.
literacy test A test given to voters to ensure that they could read and write and thus evaluate
political information. This technique was used in many southern states to restrict African
American participation in elections.
media Newspapers, magazines, television, radio, the Internet, and any other printed or electronic
means of communication.
peer group Associates, often close in age to one another; may include friends, classmates, co-
workers, club members, or religious group members. Peer group influence is a significant
factor in the political socialization process.
political socialization The learning process through which most people acquire their political
attitudes, opinions, beliefs, and knowledge.
poll tax A fee of several dollars that had to be paid before a person could vote. This device was
used in some southern states to discourage African Americans and low-income whites
from voting.
public opinion The views of the citizenry about politics, public issues, and public policies; a
complex collection of opinions held by many people on issues in the public arena.
public opinion poll A survey of the public’s opinion on a particular topic at a particular moment.
push poll A campaign tactic used to feed false or misleading information to potential voters,
under the guise of taking an opinion poll, with the intent to “push” voters away from one
candidate and toward another.
random sample In the context of opinion polling, a sample in which each person within the
entire population being polled has an equal chance of being chosen.
sample In the context of opinion polling, a group of people selected to represent the population
being studied.
sampling error In the context of opinion polling, the difference between what the sample results
show and what the true results would have been had everybody in the relevant population
been interviewed.
Solid South A term used to describe the tendency of the southern states to vote Democratic after
the Civil War.
straw poll A nonscientific poll in which there is no way to ensure that the opinions expressed are
representative of the larger population.
vital center The center of the political spectrum; those who hold moderate political views. The
center is vital because without it, it may be difficult, if not impossible, to reach the
compromises that are necessary to a political system’s continuity.
vote-eligible population The number of people who are actually eligible to vote in an
American election.
voting-age population The number of people residing in the United States who are at least
eighteen years old.
white primary A primary election in which African Americans were prohibited from voting. The
practice was banned by the Supreme Court in 1944.
WEB LINKS
Go to http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ for recent polls conducted and analyzed by the Roper
Center for Public Opinion Research.
The results of recent polls and an archive of past polls can be found at the Gallup Web site at
http://www.gallup.com.
For information on public opinion, go to http://www.electionstudies.org/, the Web site of
American National Election Studies.
Poll data and material on major issues can be found at http://www.publicagenda.org/.
Election predictions and analysis can be found at
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
For a comprehensive collection of election polls, go to the Real Clear Politics Web site at
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/.
PollingReport organizes public opinion data from various sources by keyword. The Web site is
http://www.pollingreport.com/.
HuffPost Pollster publishes pre-election poll results combined into interactive charts. Go to
elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster. Additional maps and electoral vote counts can be found at
HuffPost Politics Election Dashboard.
The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press conducts monthly polls on politics and
policy issues. Go to www.people-press.org/.
INSTRUCTOR RESOURCES
Political Theatre 2.0 DVD
Ronald Reagan’s “A Time for Choosing” Speech on behalf of Senator Goldwater: 1964
Suggested Reading
Asher, Herbert. Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know. 7th ed. Washington,
DC: CQ Press, 2007. Print.
Niemi, Richard G., and Herbert F. Weisberg (eds). Classics in Voting Behavior. Washington, DC:
CQ Press, 1992. Print.
Matar-me eu o soffrerei,
Mas soffrei tambem chegar-me,
Que ter asco de matar-me
Jámais o consentirei:
Fugir e matar não sei,
Anna, como o conseguis?
Mas si a minha sorte o quiz
E vós, Anna, o intentaes,
Não podeis matar-me mais
Do que quando me fugis.
Chegae e matar-me já:
Não chegando estou já morto;
Coisa que se me tem absorto,
Matar-me quem não me dá:
Chegae, Anna, para cá,
Para dar-me essa ferida,
Porque fugir de corrida
E matar-me d’essa sorte,
Si o vejo na minha morte,
O não vi na minha vida.
ROMANCE
Alegrei-me, e enfadei-me,
Que ha casos em que é preciso
Que se mostre ao mesmo tempo
Alegre um peito e mofino.
Amofinou-me a traição
Com que elle esteve escondido,
E alegrei-me de encontrar
Com gente d’esse districto.
Perguntei si me escreveras,
Zombou d’isso, e deu-me um trinco
Zombou com cara risonha,
Trincou com dedo tangido.
D’isto formo a minha queixa,
D’isto fico mui sentido,
Pois sei que tendes papel,
Tinteiro, penna e juizo.
ROMANCE