2020-3-JOH-SEGAMAT

Section A (45 marks)Answer all questions in this section.

1. The life span for 12 microorganisms are 1, 1, 2, 5, 1, 6, 2, 19, 18, 2, 4, 19

(i) Calculate the percentage of organisms that has a life span between median and [3 marks]
mean.
(ii) Calculate the probability of organisms has the life span between median and the [2 marks]
upper quartile.

2. 3 1 1
Two events A and B are such that P ( A )= , P ( B )= ∧P ( A|B )= .
8 4 6
[4 marks]
(a) Show that the events A and B are neither independent nor mutually exclusive.
(b) Find the probability that at least one of the events A and B occurs. [3 marks]
[3 marks]
(c) Find the probability that either one of the events A and B occurs.
3. It may be assumed that dates of birth in a large population are distributed throughout the
years so that the probability of a randomly chosen person’s date of birth being in any
1
particular month may be taken as .
12
a) i) Find the probability that, of 6 people chosen at random, exactly two will have [2 marks]
birthdays in June.

ii) N people chosen at random. Find the least value of N so that the probability that at [3 marks]
least one will have a birthday in June exceeds 0.9.
[4 marks]
Find the probability that, of 100 people chosen at random, at least 40 will have
birthday in January, February, March or April.

4. A random sample of 150 students was selected from a population of 2500 students. It
was found that only 105 students were in favour of a certain proposal. Construct a 95%
confidence interval for the (population) proportion of students who are in favour of the
proposal. [5 marks]
5. In a survey an administration organisation, 8 % of the employees to say that they are in
favour of flexible hours of working. Another random sample of 150 employees is taken
and found that 20 are in favour of flexible hours of working. Test, at the 5 % level of
significance and state whether the employees are in favour of flexible hours.
[7 marks]

6. Drinking glasses are sold in packs of 4. The manufacturer conducts a survey to assess the
quality of the glasses. The results from a sample of 50 randomly chosen packs are
summarised in the table below.

No. of perfect
0 1 2 3 4
glasses

No. of packs 1 3 10 17 19
 Fit a binomial distribution with p = 0.75 to the data and carry out goodness of fit test at [9 marks]
the 10% significance level.

Section B [15 marks]

Answer one question only in this section.

7. a. Plane crashes involving loss of life may be assumed to occur at random at an

average rate, for all major airlines taken together of 1.5 year. Find, correct to 3
decimal places, the probability of there being

(i) at most 2 such crashes in one-year period. [2 marks]

(ii) exactly 4 such crashes in two-year period [2 marks]
b. When a machine is used to dig up potatoes there is a probability 0.1 for each
individual potato that it will be damaged in the process.

(i) Find, correct to 3 decimals places, the probability that a random of

selection of 12 potatoes dug up by the machine will include at least 3 damaged
ones. [3 marks]

(ii) A random sample of n potatoes is selected and the number of damaged

potatoes in the sample is denoted by the random variable X. Write down
expressions, in terms of n, for the mean and the standard deviation of X.
[3 marks]
[3 marks]

Using a suitable approximation to show that, for P( X ≥3) to exceed 0.95, the [5 marks]

sample size n must satisfy the approximate inequality n−25>4 . 935 √ n .

8. Data collected from a large random sample and the results shows that (3.52, 4.14) is a
95% confidence interval for µ, where µ is the mean of the population of the time ( in
hour) that teenagers spend on social media daily.

(a) Explain the meaning of (3.52, 4.14) is a 95% confidence interval for µ [1 mark]
(b) Explain why it is not necessary to state the distribution of the population. [2 marks]
(c) By using the same data obtained, obtain a 99% confidence interval for the µ. [5 marks]
Hence, find the probability that
(i) both confidence intervals will contain µ.
(ii) exactly one of the intervals will contain µ. [3 marks]
(d)A further investigation concludes that 30% of the teenagers spend more than 4 hours
on social media daily. A sample size of 200 teenagers is randomly selected, find the value
of k such that
P(| p − p|≤k )=0 . 99
s p
, where s is a sample proportion and p is
the population proportion for teenagers spends more than 4 hours on social media daily . [4 marks]
2020-3-JOH-SEGAMAT-MARKING SCHEME

Section A (45 marks)

Answer all questions in this section

1. The life span for 12 microorganisms are 1, 1, 2, 5, 1, 6, 2, 19, 18, 2, 4, 19

(iii) Calculate the percentage of organisms that has a life span between [3 marks]
median and mean
(iv) Calculate the probability of organisms has the life span between median [2 marks]
and the upper quartile.
1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 4, 5, 6, 18, 19, 19
2+4
(i) Median= =3 [1]
2
80 20
Mean= = =6.67 [1]
12 3
Percentage of organisms with life span between 3 and
20 3
= ×100 %=25 % [1]
3 12

3 X +X
( 12 )=9 , ∴ Q3= 9 10
4 2
6+18
(ii) Upper quartile= =12 [1]
2
Probability of organisms with life span between median and upper
3 1
quartile = = or 0.25
12 4

[1]

2.

Two events A and B are such that and

(a) Show that the events A and B are neither independent nor mutually exclusive. [4 marks]

(b) Find the probability that at least one of the events A and B occurs. [3 marks]
(c) Find the probability that either one of the events A and B occurs. [3 marks]

a)
Since then the events A and B are not independent.

Also, since then the events A and B are not mutually exclusive.

b) P (at least one of the events A and B occurs)

= P (‘only A occurs’ or ‘only B occurs’ or ‘both A and B occurs’)
= P (A U B)
= P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

c) P(either one of the events A and B occurs)

= P(‘only A occurs’ or only B occurs’)

= ………**

=
3. It may be assumed that dates of birth in a large population are distributed
throughout the years so that the probability of a randomly chosen person’s date
1
of birth being in any particular month may be taken as .
12
a) i) Find the probability that, of 6 people chosen at random, exactly two will [2 marks]
have birthdays in June.
 ii) N people chosen at random. Find the least value of N so that the probability [3 marks]
that at least one will have a birthday in June exceeds 0.9.

Find the probability that, of 100 people chosen at random, at least 40 will [4 marks]
have birthday in January, February, March or April.

a) i) X = Number of persons date of birth being in June

1
X B(6 , )
12

( )( ) ( )
2
1 11 4
P ( X=2 )= 6 =0.07355
2 12 12

ii) P ( X ≥1 )> 0.9

1−P ( X =0 ) >0.9
P ( X=0 ) <0.1

( )
N
11
<0.1
12
11
N ln < ln 0.1
12
ln 0.1
N>
11
ln
12
N >26.46
∴ N =27

Y= Number of persons date of birth being in January, February,

March or April

(
Y B 100 ,
4
12 )
Since n is large, n = 100 > 30, np=
100
3
>5 , nq=
200
3 (
> 5, by normal approximation,Y N
100 200
3
,
9 )
approximately,

where npq=100 ( 124 )( 128 )= 2009 .

P ( Y ≥ 40 )=P ( Y >39.5 )

( )
100
39.5−
3
¿ P Z>
200
9
¿ P(Z> 1.3081)
√
¿ 0.09542
4. A random sample of 150 students was selected from a population of 2500 students. It
was found that only 105 students were in favour of a certain proposal. Construct a 95%
confidence interval for the (population) proportion of students who are in favour of the
proposal. [5 marks]
105
z α =1.96∧^p = =0.7
2
150

95% confidence interval

( √
¿ ^p −z α
2
^p ( 1−^p )
n
, ^p + z α
2√p^ ( 1− ^p )
n )
(
¿ 0.7−1.96
√
0.7 ( 0.3 )
150
¿(0.6267 , 0.7733)
, 0.7+1.96
√
0.7 ( 0.3 )
150 )
5. In a survey an administration organisation, 8 % of the employees to say that they
are in favour of flexible hours of working. Another random sample of 150
employees is taken and found that 20 are in favour of flexible hours of working.
Test, at the 5 % level of significance and state whether the employees are in
favour of flexible hours. [7 marks]

H0 : p = 0.08
H1: p 0.08
If H0 is true, sample size is large (n=150) by Central Limit Theorem,

Ps ~ N (0.08, )
Level of significance = 5%

For two-tailed test, critical value Z =1.96

Critical region : Reject H0 if >1.96

Z=

=
= 2.408
Since 2.408 > 1.96, reject H0.
There is sufficient evidence to say that the employees in favour of flexible hours.
6. Drinking glasses are sold in packs of 4. The manufacturer conducts a survey to assess the
quality of the glasses. The results from a sample of 50 randomly chosen packs are

No. of perfect
0 1 2 3 4
glasses

No. of packs 1 3 10 17 19
 summarised in the table below.

Fit a binomial distribution with p = 0.75 to the data and carry out goodness of fit [9 marks]
test at the 10% significance level.

H0: The data fits the Binomial distribution X B(4 , 0.75)

H1: The data does not fit the Binomial distribution X B(4 , 0.75)

Ei=(nC ¿ ¿ x p x qn− x ) x 50=( ( 4 ) C0 0.750 0.25 4 ) x 50=0.1953 ¿

x P(X=x) Oi Ei

0 0.0039 1 0.1953

1 0.0469 3 2.3438

2 0.2109 10 10.5469

3 0.4219 17 21.0938

4 0.3164 19 15.8203

x P(X=x) Oi Ei (Oi-Ei)^2/Ei

≤2 0.2617 14 13.0859 0.0638

3 0.4219 17 21.0938 0.7945

4 0.3164 19 15.8203 0.6391

2
x =¿∑ 1.4974

Degree of freedom, v=3-1= 2

Significance level, α= 10%

Critical region: Reject Ho if x calc > x 0.1 , 2=4.605

Since the x calc =1.4974< 4.605 ,therefore there is insufficient evidence to reject Ho. Therefore there is
sufficient evidence that the data fits the Binomial distribution, X B(4 , 0.75) at 10% level of significance.

Section B [15 marks]

Answer one question only in this section
7. a. Plane crashes involving loss of life may be assumed to occur at random at an
average rate, for all major airlines taken together of 1.5 a year. Find, correct to 3
decimal places, the probability of there being

(i) at most 2 such crashes in one-year period. [2 marks]

(ii) exactly 4 such crashes in two-year period [2 marks]

b. When a machine is used to dig up potatoes there is a probability 0.1 for each
individual potato that it will be damaged in the process.

(i) Find, correct to 3 decimals places, the probability that a random of

selection of 12 potatoes dug up by the machine will include at least 3 damaged [3 marks]
ones.

(ii) A random sample of n potatoes is selected and the number of damaged

potatoes in the sample is denoted by the random variable X. Write down
expressions, in terms of n, for the mean and the standard deviation of X. [3 marks]

[3 marks]
[5 marks]
Using a suitable approximation to show that, for P( X ≥3) to exceed 0.95, the
sample size n must satisfy the approximate inequality n−25>4 . 935 √ n .

7.a Let X be the number of plane crashes in loss of life for one-year period
X P0 ( 1.5 )
(i)P ( X≤2 )=P( X=0 )+P( X=1 )+PX=2)
2 −1. 5
−1. 5 −1 .5 1. 5 e
=e +1 .5 e +
2
=0 .809
Let X be the number of plane crashes in loss of life for two-year period
X P0 ( 3 )
3 4 e−3
(ii ) P( X=4 )=
2
=0 .168
b(i) Let W be the number of potatoes damaged in the process from a random selection of 12
 .
W  B(12 , 0.1)
P( X ≥3)=1−P(W ≤2)
=1−(0 . 9)12−12(0 . 1)(0 . 9)11−66( 0. 1)2 (0 .9 )10
= 0 .111
(ii) Let X be the number of potatoes damaged in the random sample of size n .
X  B(n, 0.1)
Mean of X = 0 . 1n

Standard deviation of X = √ n(0.1)(0.9)

= 0 .3 √n
For large n , X  N (0.1n , (0.3) √ n)2 )

P( X ≥3)=P Z> ( 2 .5−0 .1 n

0. 3 √ n )
For P( X ≥3)>0. 95

P Z>( 0 .3 √ n)
2 . 5−0 . 1 n
>0 . 95

( 2. 5−0 .1 n
0 . 3 √n ) <−Z 0 .05 =−1. 645

25−n<−4 . 935 √n
n−25>4 . 935 √n (shown)
8. Data collected from a large random sample and the results shows that (3.52, 4.14) is a
95% confidence interval for µ, where µ is the mean of the population of the time ( in
hour) that teenagers spend on social media daily.

(a) Explain the meaning of (3.52, 4.14) is a 95% confidence interval for µ [1 mark]
(b) Explain why it is not necessary to state the distribution of the population.
(c) By using the same data obtained, obtain a 99% confidence interval for the µ. [2 marks]
Hence, find the probability that
(i) both confidence intervals will contain µ. [5 marks]
(ii) exactly one of the intervals will contain µ.
(d)A further investigation concludes that 35% of the teenagers spend more than 4 hours
on social media daily. A sample size of 200 teenagers is randomly selected, find the value [3 marks]
of k such that
P(| p s− p|≤k )=0 . 99 , where p s is a sample proportion and p is the
population proportion for teenagers spends more than 4 hours on social media daily .

[4 marks]
(a) There is 95% confident that the interval ( 3.52, 4.14 ) contains the population mean µ
(b) The central limit theorem suggests that the for a large sample size ( n ≥30 ), the distribution is
approximate normal.
 3 .52+ 4 .14
x= =3 .83
(c) 2
Z 0.025 = 1.96
σ
=4 . 14−3 .83
Sampling error = 1.96 √ n
σ 0. 31
=
√ n 1 . 96
σ
=0 .15816
√n

For 99% symmetrical interval, α =0.01,

Z 0.005 = 2.576
( 3 . 83−2 .576×0 . 15816 , 3 . 83+2. 576×0 .15816 )
= ( 3.42 , 4.23 )

(i) Since the 99% confidence intervals enclosed 95% confidence interval
The probability of both intervals contain µ = 0.95

(ii) Probability of exactly one intervals contain µ

= 0.99 – 0.95
= 0.04

(d)
P(| p s− p|≤k )=0 . 99
P(−k ≤p s − p|≤k )=0. 99
−k k
P( ≤Z≤ )=0. 99

200√
(0 . 35 )(0. 65 )
√
(0 . 35 )( 0. 65 )
200

k
P( Z≤ )=0. 995

k
√ (0 . 35)(0 . 65 )
200
=2.576

√ ( 0.35 ) ( 0.65 )
200
k = 0.0869