PROBABILITY

 Is a measure quantifying the likelihood that events will occur.

 Probability quantifies as a number between 0 and 1.
 It is a prediction/ certainty
 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty.

Impossible As likely Certain

0 1
0% 50% 100%
0,0 0.5 1

TERMINOLOGIES

BRANCH An arm of a tree, a part of a tree which grows out from the
trunk or from a bough
COIN A flat disc or piece of metal with an official stamp, used as
money
CONDITIONAL Where an event is affected by other events
DECK Is the compilation of 52 cards that are divided into 4 equal
parts
DEPENDENT Where an event is affected by other events
DIE Singular for DICE
EVENTS Occurrences, happenings
INDEPENDENT Each event is not affected by other events
LIKELIHOOD Expectations, prospect, chance, odds or possibility
MARBLES A small ball of colored glass or similar material used as a
toy
MUTUAL EXCLUSIVE Events can’t happen at the same time
OUTCOMES Consequence, the way things turns out, end results, sequel
PROBABILITY The extent to which something is likely to happen or be the
case
REPLACEMENT When we put each card BACK after drawing it
TREE DIAGRAM Is a planning tool that depicts the hierarchy of tasks and
subtasks needed to complete objectives. In general that
allows us to calculate the number of possible outcomes of
an event. All possible outcomes are listed in an organized
manner.
EVENTS:

DEPENDANTS; (also called ‘CONDITIONAL’ Where an event is affected by other

events).

INDEPENDANTS: (each event is not affected by other events)

MUTUAL EXCLUSIVE: (events can’t happen at the same time).

EXAMPLES: DICE, COIN, PLAYING CARDS, etc.

Throwing a DIE comes with 1- 6 options all as out of 6 e.g

, , , , , in adding all this it gives answer as 1

Probability Formula:

Probability of an event happening =

In a die, interesting thing is: many people think that one of these cubes called a dice but
no. The plural is dice but singular is DIE.

(1 DICE and 2 DIE).

Common DIE has 6 FACES- called FACES1 – 6 (HIGH, LOW and MOST LIKELY)

1 divide by 6 possibility = 0.167

In percentage wise – 16.7 %

Let’s think about what might happen

QUESTIONS if you ROLL a DIE

 What is the least possible score?

  The greatest possible score?
 What do you think is the mostly score?

SOLUTIONS:

 The least possible score must be 1.

 The greatest possible score must be 6.
 The most likely score is …..????

THROW DIE 15 times and records the SCORES in a TALLY TABLE

SCORE TALLY FREQUENCY

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
TOTAL
COIN

Flipping a coin comes in two ways either be HEAD or TAIL.

Flipping it chances are HEAD or TAIL

HEAD

2 SIDES TAIL
The PROBABILITY of each branch is written on the BRANCH

The OUTCOME is written at the end of the BRANCH.

 The PROBABILITY of HEAD is 0.5 × 0.5 – 0.25

 All PROBABILITIES ADD up to 1.0 ( That is how we check the correctness)
 The PROBABILITY of getting at least ONE HEAD from two TOSSES is 0.25 +
0.25 + 0.25 = 0.75
 Mabhuti Khanyeza is off to soccer as a player of AmaZulu FC and love being a
Goal keeper, but that depends on who is the Goalkeeper as there are others like
Cavin Johnson ot name one.

 With coach Sam Mbatha the probability of being Goal keeper is 0.5
 With coach Alex Murambadoro the probability of being Goal keeper 0.3

Sam Mbatha is a coach more often …. About 6 out of every 10 games.( a

probability of 0.6)

So, what is the probability that Mabhuti Khanyeza will be a Goal keeper today

TWO POSSIBLE COACHES: SAM MBATHA and ALEX MURAMBADORO

The PROBABILITY of getting Sam Mbatha is 0,6 so the probability of Alex must be 0,4
ADD together to = 1.

Now if Mabhuti Khanyeza get Sam, there is 0,5 probability of being Goalie( and 0,5 of
not being a Goalie)

If Mabhuti Khanyeza get Alex, there is 0,3 probability of getting Goalie and 0,7 not.
Now the TREE DIAGRAM is complete, let us calculate the overall probabilities. This is
done by multiplying each probability along the BRANCHES of the TREE.

Here is how to do it for the ‘Sam , YES

An 0,4 chance of Alex as coach , followed by an 0,3 chance gives 0,12.

Now we ADD the column: 0,3 + 0,12 = 0,42 PROBABILITY

Of being a Goalie today ( that is 42 % chances)

NB FINAL STEP :

: Add all the outcomes and check the answer which supposed to be 1

Playing cards, is where mostly we get DEPENDENT EVENTS.

Dependent events are when an event is affected by the previous event.

 In playing CARDS after taking one card from the DECK there are LESS cards
available. So probabilities CHANGE.

Chances of getting a QUEEN:

 For the first card the chances of drawing a QUEEN is 4 out of 52.

But the second card:

If the first card is a QUEEN then the second card is less LIKELY to be QUEEN

as only 3 of the 51 cards are left.

 If the 1st card was a KING, the 2nd card is slightly MORE LIKELY to be KINGS
there are 4 KINGS out of 51 cards left when removing one out of 52 in a deck.
REPLACEMENT: When we put each card BACK after drawing it the chances do not
change as the events are INDEPENDENT.

Without REPLACEMENT: The chances will change, and the events are DEPENDENT

MUTUAL EXCLUSIVE: cannot get BOTH events same time it is either one or the other
not BOTH

 Turning left or right are MUTUAL EXCLUSIVE( a person can’t do BOTH same
time)
 HEADS and TAILS are MUTRUAL EXCLUSIVE
 KINGS /QUEENS etc are MUTUAL EXCLUSIVE

MARBLES GAME

A bag contains MARBLES : 2 blue in color, 3 red in color. Chances of getting blue = 5
but after taking one out the chances change. If you got RED marble before, then the chances
of a Blue marble is 2 in 4 If you got a blue marble before then the chances of a blue marble
next is 1 in 4.
 3
In another bag there is a chance of pulling out a Blue marble, and a chance for Red.
5 5

We can go one STEP further and see what happens when we put a second marble.

If a Blue marble was selected first there is now a chances of getting a Blue marble and a
4
3
chances of getting a Red marble..
4

If Red marble was selected first there is now a chances of getting a Blue marble and a
4
chance of getting a Red marble.
4
ACTIVITY
 ACTIVITY

1. Two die are thrown together. Use the TREE DIAGRAM to find out the Probability
that one number is EVEN and the other is ODD

2. Use a TREE DIAGRAM to find the Probability that BOTH numbers are LESS than
FIVE (5).

3. Mukelani walks up late on average three days in every five. If Mukelani walks up
late, the Probability her late for school =
3
If Mukelani does not wake up late, the Probability she’s late for school =

On what percentage of days does Mukelani get to school on time?

4. Mukelani’s favourite meal is pizza , followed by malva pudding as a dessert. Her

mom cooks pizza one weekly
Mukelani’s mom cooks pizza, then the Probability Mukelani gets malva pudding
for dessert is If she does not cook pizza, then the Probability, Mukelani gets
3
malva pudding for dessert is
4
What is the Probability that Mukelani get malva pudding for dessert?

5. Mukelani has two pairs of black shoes and three pairs of brown shoes.
She also has three pairs of red socks, four pairs of socks and six pairs of black
socks.
If Mukelani chooses a pair of shoes at random and a pair of socks at random, what
is the Probability that the colors she chooses are black and brown(in some order).

6. 3 4
The probability of a fine day is and probability of a wet day is
If it’s a fine day:
The probability Mukelani’s father cycles to work is

The probability of Mukelani’s father drives to is and

The probability Mukelani’s father takes taxi to work is

If it’s a wet day:
 The probability Mukelani’s father cycles to work is
5
The probability Mukelaqni’s father drives to work is and
3
The probability Mukelani’s father takes the train home is

For a day selected at random, what is the probability Mukelani’s father takes the
train to work?

7. A bag contains 3 white balls, 4 green balls and 5 red balls. Three balls are drawn
from the bag without replacement.
7.1 Use a tree diagram to find the probability that the balls are all of different
colors.
7.2 Find the probability that the balls are all of the same color