PROBABILITY

Whole Class Explicit Teaching

 LANGUAGE OF CHANCE
• Chance is the likelihood that something will happen.
• If something will definitely happen, we say it is certain.
• If something might happen, we say it is likely.
• If something might not happen, we say it is unlikely.
• If something will definitely not happen, we say it is impossible.

Impossible Fat chance No chance

Unlikely A good chance Slim chance

Certain Possibly 50 / 50

Very likely Maybe / maybe not Likely

Possible No hope Buckleys

 LANGUAGE OF CHANCE
• Describe the likelihood of each event occurring as either:
• impossible (I), unlikely (U), likely (L), certain (C) or even-chance (E)

• Christmas Day will fall on December 25 this year

• It will rain somewhere in Australia tomorrow
• The sun will still be visible at midnight tonight in Sydney
• An Australian golfer will win all major championships this year
• Every student in our class will score 100% in the next Maths test
• A second moon of the same size will be discovered orbiting Earth
• You will eventually buy your own house or unit
• A card is chosen from a pack of 52 playing cards and is either red or black
• The numbers 1 to 10 are written on separate pieces of paper, placed in a bag and
the number 13 is drawn out
 ORDERING EVENTS
As we know Chance is the likelihood that something will happen.
If something will definitely happen, we say it is certain.
If something might happen, we say it is likely.
If something might not happen, we say it is unlikely.
If something will definitely not happen, we say it is impossible.

We can use a line to show the order of chance events happening.

 ORDERING EVENTS
• We can use the line to help us order chance events.
• Assign chance words to these events and then place them in order from
least likely to happen to most likely.

• Someone will win first prize in LOTTO next week

• A coin is tossed and the result is a tail
• At least 5 students will be absent from our school on the next school day
• Every student in our class is a girl
• A number between 1 and 6 will be shown when a die is rolled
ORDERING EVENTS USING
FRACTIONS
 ORDERING EVENTS USING
FRACTIONS
• The following counters are in the bag: 4 red, 6 yellow and 2 green.
• Record the expected probability of choosing each colour using a fraction.
• Remember that when finding the chance or likelihood of an event
occurring, we must look at all possible outcomes.
ORDERING EVENTS USING
FRACTIONS
 CHANCE EXPERIMENTS
Tossing 2 coins.
 CHANCE EXPERIMENTS
• We will conduct this experiment
together.
• Notice we are using the same
table but have just extended it
to include the extra times we
are going to toss the coin.
• How many possible outcomes
are there?
• What are your predicted
outcomes?
• Is it possible to get 8 TT?
 CHANCE EXPERIMENTS AND
VARIATIONS IN RESULTS
• Last week we conducted this chance experiment.
• Would you expect to get the same results again if we
tried again this week? Why/Why not?