CEDAR: The New

Dimension

Version 9.2, October 2010

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements

Executive Summary

1 Introduction: The CEDAR Vision

2 The Space-Atmosphere Interaction Region
3 Relevance
a. Habitability: Our Whole Earth System
b. Sustainability of Our Technology Reliant Society
4 Variability in the Space-Atmosphere Interaction Region
a. Space-Atmosphere Fluxes
b. Space-Atmosphere Coupling
c. Space-Atmosphere Evolution
5 The Systems Perspective
a. Complexity
b. Cross-scale Coupling
6 The Way Forward

1 Introduction
The Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of
Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) program,
funded by NSF’s Atmospheric and Geospace
Sciences division, studies the interaction
region of the Earth’s upper atmosphere with
interplanetary space and with the lower
atmosphere. The space environment is filled
with energetic particles, solar radiation and
magnetic fields that drive “space weather”
disturbances in our tenuous upper
atmosphere. Mega-ampere electric currents,
order-of-magnitude changes in neutral density
and temperature, and major redistribution of
charged particles in the ionosphere can occur
rapidly in the upper atmosphere. At the same
time, waves carrying energy and momentum
upward from hurricanes, thermal tides and
surface features dramatically impact its
circulation and variability. Satellites orbiting
in this complicated environment support
infrastructures essential to the functioning of
our modern society. The need to understand
and predict this environment is made more
urgent by our growing awareness of the
interdependencies between societal
infrastructures that can result in serious
collateral damage when sensitive
infrastructures (for example, electric power
grids) are disrupted by space weather effects
[Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding
Societal and Economic Impacts, National Academy
of Science, 2008].
The CEDAR program has maintained its
vitality for over 25 years by planning,
assessment, and prioritization of research
goals that reflect pressing scientific and
technical issues. Presently the questions posed
by CEDAR are detailed and specific;
however, the CEDAR community must
complement these questions with a broader,
more encompassing vision that recognizes the
linkages between different aspects of the
whole Earth system and the vital role the
upper atmosphere plays in maintaining the
habitability of our planet and in sustaining a
society that is increasingly reliant on satellite
technologies for vital services .
The purpose of this community document is
to describe a bold transformation in the
mission of the CEDAR program that
anticipates the next generation of scientific
breakthroughs, and fosters cross-disciplinary
activities by exploring connections between
CEDAR science and other disciplines.
In its formative years, the CEDAR program
evolved through a grass-roots scientific effort.
This continues today and is essential for the
program to remain vibrant and current.
Community science plans for upper
atmosphere research are described in the
CEDAR Phase documents. The most recent
Phase III document, completed in 1996,
focused CEDAR science efforts and
consolidated resources to attack specific
science questions pertaining to four areas of
research: Coupling with Lower Altitudes,
Solar-Terrestrial Interactions, Polar
Aeronomy and Long-term Variations.
Since the publication of the CEDAR Phase
III document, new supporting technologies,
not envisioned as contributing to CEDAR
research in past years, have begun to reshape
the research landscape. These include
cyberinfrastructure, advanced
communications, improved sensors,
networking technology, computing power,
precision navigation systems, small satellites,
major research instrumentation and facilities,
and distributed instrumentation and
computing. Along with advances in
understanding the coupling that links the
upper atmosphere with other regions, these
exciting developments have the potential to
position CEDAR to make major
contributions to high priority research areas,
such as geocomplexity, global change, Earth
dynamism, and space weather.
The rapid evolution of resources and
discoveries, together with the increase in
relevance and impact of CEDAR science,
both enables and requires a new view of
geospace to accelerate progress. This view is
one of global perspective where the geospace
environment must be analyzed as an
integrated system to fully understand its
response to external and internal stresses and
their subsequent impact on other parts of the
system. This holistic, systems science view is
increasingly shared by other areas of
geoscience and this document provides a plan
to advance CEDAR in this new and evolving
dimension.
The nonlinear, coupled and dynamical aspects
of the Earth system challenge progress.The
Earth’s atmosphere is not simply a linear
superposition of its constituent atmospheric
regions but rather a complex system.
Complexity is used to describe a system
comprised of many interacting elements that,
as a whole, exhibit properties not obvious
from the properties of the individual parts.
This description is characteristic of Earth’s
atmosphere and represents a necessary added
dimension of CEDAR science.
CEDAR: The New Dimension focuses on
complexity within the ITM as the next
transformative step to properly and reliably
predict geospace conditions and understand
their interconnections to other regions in the
Sun-Earth system.
This new appreciation of systems science
requires a collaborative exchange of ideas and
understanding with the other disciplines that
study sub-regions in the solar-terrestrial
system, i.e. solid earth, ocean, lower
atmosphere, magnetosphere, solar and
interplanetary space. This effort will allow
CEDAR to address broader and more
encompassing research questions the answers
for which will have far-reaching impact.
Integrative activities ongoing within CEDAR
for many years will become mainstreamed,
with a more explicit statement and unified
direction toward broader CEDAR goals.
CEDAR: The New
Dimension focuses on
complex processes within the
ITM system as the next
transformative step to
properly and reliably predict
state behavior of geospace and
understand its connectedness
to other parts of the Sun-
Earth system.
The development and deployment of
technologies and infrastructure can then be
assessed and prioritized in terms of their
capabilities and strategic attributes that satisfy
the emerging scientific needs. This
advancement of science and resources must
proceed with a sense of fiscal acuity. Thus, the
formulation of the new goals for CEDAR
must be leveraged from, and coordinated
with, other programs’ plans for more
extensive observing networks, modeling
efforts, and broader visionary goals that will
generate new collaborations and exciting, new
insights into the workings of the coupled
Earth system.

The CEDAR Vision

To understand fundamental properties of the
space-atmosphere interaction region, identify the
interconnected processes that define its global
behavior, evolution, and influence on the Sun-
Earth system, and to explore its predictability.

Man must rise above the Earth – to the top of the

atmosphere and beyond – for only thus will he fully
understand the world in which he lives.
–Socrates

2. The Space-
Atmosphere
Interaction Region
To focus on the processes that
structure the upper
atmosphere, it is useful to
envision it as an Interaction
Region coupling the lower atmosphere with
space and the universe beyond. Aeronomy is
the study of the physics and chemistry related
to the tenuous, partially ionized, space-
atmosphere interaction region (SAIR) of
Earth and is the research domain of the
CEDAR community. This domain
encompasses the ionosphere, thermosphere
and mesosphere (ITM). The exosphere and
plasmasphere are the spaceward extensions of
the ITM’s neutral and plasma constituents,
respectively. Collectively the ITM, exosphere,
plasmasphere and magnetosphere form the
geospace environment. The troposphere is
referred to as the lower atmosphere, and the
stratosphere, mesosphere and lower
thermosphere as the middle atmosphere.
That the space-atmosphere interaction region
represents a form of boundary layer implies
an exchange between the neighboring regions
it separates, a change in their physical makeup,
and a redistribution of mass, momentum and
energy. The SAIR is a dynamic, complex
boundary layer that communicates with its
neighbors: the neutral gas-dominated lower
atmosphere and the plasma-dominated space
environment. Internal processes within this
Interaction Region mediate the exchange
between these distant and distinct regions.
Energy, mass and momentum crossing its
boundaries from above and below participate
in a large number of transitions and
transformations ultimately structuring the
ITM in space and time.
The concept of an Interaction Region can be
generalized to unify the study of Earth’s
environment with other planetary and solar
system bodies. At Earth, and for virtually
every object in the Universe, there is an
Interaction Region coupling the visible surface of
the object (star, planet, moon, comet, asteroid
or planetoid) to the tenuous plasmas that
surround it in space. The Interaction Region of a
planetary body, which includes the
ionosphere, thermosphere, and mesosphere,
itself exhibits complex behavior. It is strongly
Earth’s atmosphere and geospace
environment making up the space-
atmosphere interaction región.
coupled chemically, dynamically, and
electromagnetically to the lower atmosphere
and to the magnetosphere. The physical and
chemical processes that occur between a
body’s solid or gaseous surface and the fully
ionized gases in regions well beyond it involve
fundamentally important aspects of science.
For objects with dense gases at their visible
surface (Sun, stars, the giant planets of our
solar system, and exoplanets), the Interaction
Region includes the classic studies of
meteorological processes, photochemical
layers of both neutrals and ionization, and
plasma transport to regions beyond. A
complex setting for Interaction Region science
occurs for worlds where surface topology also
modulates upward coupling from neutrals to
plasmas. Earth, Venus, Mars and Titan are
specific examples. Further complexities occur
in the presence of a strong intrinsic
geomagnetic field that couple the plasma to
the neutral gas with Earth, Saturn and Jupiter
examples of magnetically influenced
atmospheres.
That one of the most complex examples
(Earth) is readily accessible to all modern
research tools of ground-based and space-
based investigation offers an extraordinary
opportunity to advance our understanding of
our home planet, as well as the very nature of
interaction regions everywhere. Within only a
~1000 km of the Earth’s surface, it is possible
to study a set of fundamental processes that
appear throughout the Universe. Focusing on
the SAIR of Earth draws together past and
continuing research on individual components
and processes initiated in CEDAR. Exploring
Earth’s SAIR in its entirety is an important
next step in CEDAR’s quest to understand
the interconnected dynamical processes that
determine the structure of the ITM, and
ultimately will contribute to our
understanding of how the Sun-Earth system
works and what role the SAIR has on other
worlds.
The most fruitful areas for
growth of the sciences are
those between established
fields. Science has been
increasingly the task of
specialists, in fields which show
a tendency to grow
progressively narrower.
Important work is delayed by
the unavailability in one field of
results that may have already
become classical in the next
field. It is these boundary
regions of science that offer the
richest opportunities to the
qualified investigator.
– Norbert Wiener
That one of the most complex
examples (Earth) is readily
accessible to all modern
research tools of ground-based
and space-based investigation
offers an extraordinary
opportunity to advance our
understanding of our home
planet, as well as the very
nature of interaction regions
everywhere.
3 Relevance disturbances at Earth. In the upper
atmosphere (the domain of CEDAR), space
Over the last few solar cycles, observations
weather events are responsible for the strong
and models have demonstrated the disruptive
electric currents that disrupt electric power
effects of space weather on electric power
grids, the dramatic changes in ionospheric
grids, satellites, aircraft HF communications,
density that black-out HF radio
and GPS-positioning systems. As severe as
communications, the steep gradients in
some of these impacts have been, history tells
ionospheric density that disable GPS
us that stronger solar storms, than any yet
positioning systems, and the auroral heating
experienced since the dawn of the space age,
that increases neutral densities and thus
are possible and even likely in the future. An
enhances satellite drag. CEDAR science is
example of one such “superstorm” is the
crucial for understanding and eventually
Carrington event of 1859. This particular solar
predicting these and a whole range of other
storm occurred before the development of
space weather phenomena, which in turn
most of today’s ground and space
carries direct benefit to modern society. Our
infrastructure. None-the-less, the crude
reliance on space-based technologies for
telegraph system, in place at the time,
communication, navigation, and resource
provides a glimpse into the storms societal
management is growing and evolving so
impact. Telegraph systems failed, operators
rapidly that soon the entire world will be
received burns and electrical shocks as
dependent on operational space assets for
geomagnetically induced currents flowed
basic daily activities. CEDAR research creates
through the telegraph lines.
the breakthrough science and intellectual
Such an event like this today would likely have framework needed for the next generation of
a devastating impact on society. The space weather prediction models that will be
Administrator of the Federal Emergency used to mitigate the impacts of severe space
Management Agency (FEMA) has now weather on sensitive technologies and to
incorporated space weather events into its protect society from catastrophic disruptions
natural disaster preparedness plans. FEMA in critical services..
acknowledges that another Carrington event
At a more fundamental level, but of equal
would not be localized to a particular region
importance, is understanding the role of the
but would cause national and worldwide
space-atmosphere interaction region in
disruptions of basic infrastructure such as
sustaining basic life and human wellness. As
communications, power, air traffic, and water
we seek to explore other planets within our
while costing billions of dollars in damage.
solar system and discover new exoplanetary
Society’s satellite fleets would most certainly
systems, it is essential that we understand the
not come through a Carrington event
unscathed! How has the space-atmosphere
However, a Carrington-size event is not interaction region contributed to
required to impact societal infrastructure. making our planet habitable?
Solar storms regularly produce space weather
many influences that ultimately lead to
initiating and maintaining life. The Earth’s
atmosphere plays a critical role in sustaining
life, and the space-atmosphere interaction
region is a fundamental part of the integrated
atmospheric system and its connection to
space. The ability of planets like Earth to
support life is partly dependent on the
chemical, dynamical, and energetic processes
that occur within the SAIR. The broad
rationale for an expanded view of CEDAR is
to contribute to understanding the habitability
and sustainability of our planet by taking a
holistic approach to Earth’s system.
planet, a process that continues today.
Following its formation 3.5 billion years ago,
aerobic life began a process that led to an
oxygen rich atmosphere, differentiating Earth
from its nearest terrestrial neighbor. That
oxygen, along with nitrogen, formed an
absorbing shield in the upper portions of the
atmosphere, screening the surface from
harmful solar UV radiation and energetic
particles and permitting the vigorous
evolution of life.
This shielding is not maintained without
consequence. Energy from the sun

Study of the SAIR improves our

understanding of processes significant to the
upper boundary of Earth’s atmosphere,
elucidates the linkages to both the lower
atmosphere and near-space regions, and
provides awareness of our vulnerabilities. As
much as water and sunlight are imperative for
initiating life, properties of the SAIR are
important for maintaining it.

3a Habitability: Our Whole

Earth System
Understanding the many influences that
initiate and maintain life on planets like Earth
is essential for human wellbeing over the long
term. The evolution of life is intimately linked
to the development of our atmosphere.
During planetary formation, the Earth’s
atmosphere consisted primarily of hydrogen
and helium. Over time, geologic outgassing
and extraterrestrial bombardment added
heavier volatiles that were entrained within
the early atmosphere. Hydrogen, and, to a
lesser extent, helium can attain sufficient
thermal energy from the sun to overcome Earth’s geocorona of hydrogen and
other natural emissions. NOT SAR,
Earth’s gravitational bounds and escape the CHANGE LABEL
continuously bombards the upper
atmosphere, intensifying atmospheric gaseous
escape, ripping electrons from the bodies of
Auroral rays produced by neutral oxygen
impacted by energetic electrons.
Middle atmosphere sprites connecting
tropospheric lightning discharge with
ionosphere charges.
neutral molecules and atoms to form the
ionosphere, energizing gas emissions in the
form of airglow and auroras, and raising
temperatures to more than one thousand
degrees. This energy transport across the
geospace system must be accounted for and
treated consistently with energy processes in
other parts of the whole Earth system in
order to fully represent the evolution of the
atmosphere and its influence on life and
human wellbeing.
For instance, the current composition of the
atmosphere, and the evolution of all terrestrial
planetary atmospheres, depends upon the rate
of escape of light gases from the top of the
atmosphere. The Earth’s solar system
neighbors, Mars and Venus, illustrate opposite
extremes of atmospheric evolution in CO2
dominated atmospheres, and both are proof
of the frailty of liquid water oceans on
geologic time scales. It is evident that a
terrestrial atmosphere can rapidly evolve to a
state that is unable to support life.
Understanding, for example, the evolution
and stability of all hydrogenous species in the
atmosphere demands a systems approach that
couples processes from the Earth’s crust and
biosphere to the outermost atmospheric
region, the exosphere, and geospace.
The ionosphere, a conductive shell around the
Earth that arises as a consequence of solar-
atmosphere interactions, is essential to the
balance of planetary electric charges. This
shell of free electrons continuously works to
counter charge distributions created in the
magnetosphere (visually demonstrated by the
continuous presence of auroras), a process
that leads to significant electrical energy
dissipation in the ionosphere and
thermosphere. This conductive shell also
balances charge distributions induced by
ground and cloud electric potentials, as
demonstrated by the recent discovery of
upper atmosphere sprites and jets. The
electrical aspects of the whole Earth system
are poorly explored, yet, by their very nature,
connect widely separated regions of the Earth
system, linking geospace to the ground in an
electrical circuit which must be studied as an
entire system to fully understand.

3b Sustainability of Our
Technology-Reliant Society
As society
continues to evolve
and develop more
sophisticated
infrastructure, its dependence on the
properties of the SAIR becomes more acute
and varied. For example, prior to 1960,
satellites were not part of the societal
infrastructure and thus consequences of Typical GPS positioning errors are a few meters but
geospace dynamics were not part of the socio- during storm enhanced density events errors can be
economic equation. Today, with ever 15-25 meters.
increasing reliance, satellite technology plays a the results of such efforts will be
major role in modern society. Thus, new ITM unpredictable and may have catastrophic
questions – such as how precisely do consequences.
thermosphere density variations affect satellite
drag, or how and when do ionospheric density A present-day demonstration of
variations cause GPS signal disruption? – geoengineering is the anthropogenic
become critical societal issues. production of carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide
concentrations have increased in the upper
How does a society sustain its expansive atmosphere at a comparable rate to that in the
technological enterprise under changing lower atmosphere. Although considered a
space-atmosphere conditions and how might greenhouse gas in the troposphere by trapping
societies best adapt in response to changes? heat and leading to higher temperature,
The concept of geoengineering based on carbon dioxide in the mesosphere is a very
present and future technologies has re- efficient infrared radiator that acts to cool the
emerged during the recent debate of global region. This enhances downward heat
warming, whereby engineering methods are
considered to modify and potentially control
an important atmosphere parameter, How does a society sustain its
specifically temperature. Geoengineering
expansive technological
proposals, such as reflecting more sunlight by
introducing reflective elements in the upper
enterprise under changing space-
atmosphere, offer potential solutions but will atmosphere conditions and how
most certainly introduce new issues. Without might societies need to adapt in
adequate knowledge of how the whole Earth response to changes?
system responds to anthropogenic alterations,
conduction in the thermosphere leading to an society. Owing to the growing dependence on
overall compression of the thermosphere gas, technology, in particular space and space-
which alters circulation patterns in the upper sensitive technologies, the most immediate
atmosphere that are responsible for the societal impact of CEDAR research will
transport of other important chemical species. concern technology-reliant societies.
In turn, these changes affect the spatial
distribution and concentration of the Earth’s
ionosphere, which impacts societal
dependencies on communication and
navigation.

This is just one demonstration of a significant,

evolutionary change that can occur in the
upper atmosphere due to lower atmosphere
transport of a “minor” anthropogenic species,
the different roles species play in different
atmospheric regimes, and the cascade of
effects that can lead to alterations important
to society. It is unclear at this time how these
effects may communicate to other regions of
the whole Earth system through feedback and Space debris is a growing problem with the image
coupling processes, and a full understanding above depicting space objects in low earth orbit.
of such phenomena demands a collaborative,
systems science approach to the problem. It is
important that researchers in all aspects of
solar-terrestrial science be prepared to provide
authoritative information pertaining to
altering conditions of our planet – be it
natural or geoengineered – that are likely to
occur in the 21st century. New societal issues,
such as space debris and the
commercialization of space, are presenting
new problems that will require a much better
understanding of the ITM to properly
address.

CEDAR will contribute to the advancement

of whole atmosphere models, develop new
observing technologies, expand observational
networks, and educate and train future
scientists to contribute to human wellbeing
and the sustainability and adaptability of
The commercialization of space will be a societal
issue in the future requiring in depth knowledge of
our geospace environment. Many of the commercial
enterprises will lie in low earth orbit, centrally
located in the thermosphere and ionosphere.
4. Variability in
the Space-
Atmosphere
Interaction Region
An outstanding challenge in upper
atmosphere research is accounting for the
significant levels of variability in the space-
atmosphere interaction region (SAIR), often
rivaling the value of its mean state. This
variability is driven by the nonlinear dynamical
response of the ITM to changing temporal
and spatial fluxes of energy, mass and
momentum that cross its boundaries from
space and the lower atmosphere.
Furthermore, complex interactions between
plasma and neutral gases lead to internal
processes that can amplify these variations.
This behavior raises the question: “Is the
SAIR region ever in steady state or is it
continuously changing by internal and
external influences?” CEDAR scientists have
made significant progress in developing
observational tools to probe these changes,
but often in isolated single focus campaigns.
Today’s understanding is that all too often
unraveling the various processes at work calls
out for more extensive measurements and/or
measurement of multiple parameters.
Complex physics based models lack a
complete set of inputs and boundary
conditions and are missing important
processes. Today’s state-of-the-art
observational and modeling facilities, if
operated in new comprehensive campaigns,
can begin to resolve the major sources of, and
processes responsible for, the levels of
variability observed in the SAIR.
The evolution of the complexity within the
SAIR depends strongly on the initial state of
the system, its boundary conditions, and the
fluxes crossing its boundary. The variability
and its evolution must be understood in order
to recognize changes in the ITM and its
possible vulnerabilities, extending perhaps to
questions of tipping points and emergent
behavior that may influence the human
wellbeing of the planet.
4a Space-Atmosphere Fluxes
The upper atmosphere is not a closed system.
Across its open boundaries, fluxes of mass,
momentum and energy are exchanged with
space and with the lower atmosphere driving
the SAIR far from equilibrium. These fluxes
take the form of solar photons,
electromagnetic energy, energetic particles ,
neutrals and ions from the ITM, and
atmospheric wave momentum and minor
species from the lower atmosphere. They
respond in magnitude as well as temporal and
spatial evolution to a wide variety of input and
output processes. In most cases there is a
Traveling ionospheric disturbances and small-scale
irregularities impressed on the ionospheric electron
density.
need to combine observations from more
than one instrument and/or model to
“determine” a flux. CEDAR will pave the
way for these types of measurements by
coordinating the necessary facilities,
instruments and models for progress..
Waves are fundamental in boundary exchange
processes as they can carry energy,
momentum and mass across great distances.
Alfven waves are a type of
magnetohydrodynamic wave that establishes
communication between the magnetosphere
and the SAIR. Atmospheric waves are
hydrodynamic waves that can be internally
generated within the SAIR making latitudinal
connections(for example, traveling
atmospheric disturbances (TADs)) or
externally generated propagating upward from
the lower atmosphere into the SAIR. Waves
span the spectrum of spatial and temporal
scales and significantly influence the degree of
variability within the ITM. They provide one
of the most difficult challenges to observers.
CEDAR infrastructure provides single-point
observations from which wave trains can
rarely be unambiguously deduced. As theory
and modeling focus in on specific wave types
it will be important that observational
networks are developed to capture their actual
properties. Indeed CEDAR scientists have
long struggled with the general category of
TADs and traveling ionospheric disturbances
(TIDs) which even today are broad categories
of many unresolved wave types. Innovative
use of technology, the GPS TEC earthquake
monitoring system, has revealed fine-scale
coherence of TIDs in ways CEDAR scientists
have struggled to unravel for decades. Further
such innovation, in the form of distributed
arrays of instrumentation, is needed over
many different scale lengths.Study of wave
processes and their exchange across
boundaries is essential for understanding
coupling and connections throughout the
SAIR.
Another example of exchange processes
across boundaries is related to electrical
properties of the Earth system. The nature of
the magnetic field serves as a pathway for
mass, momentum, and energy exchange
between the SAIR and the distant regions of
the magnetosphere. These dynamic exchange
processes often morph through more than
one form before being dissipated.
Observations of each of these different forms
are not always possible hence strategies need
to be developed to concentrate measurements
of selected parameters with sufficient
temporal and spatial resolution to capture
these dynamic exchanges. In so doing,
theoretical and model developments will be
most usefully constrained. The CEDAR
initiatives in resolving such larger systems
require strong collaboration with scientists in
other areas with complementary observational
programs, such as Geospace Environment
Modeling community.
Furthermore, the electric potential difference
between the ionosphere and the lower
atmosphere requires a continuous
redistribution of charge that, at times, result in
abrupt discharges connecting the ionosphere
with the lower atmosphere through electrical
channels called sprites and jets. The electrical
system between Space and Earth is a vital area
of research that constitutes a boundary
exchange needing more in-depth
investigation.
The CEDAR program must focus its future
efforts on understanding and quantifying
more completely space-atmosphere fluxes and
the resulting exchange of energy, mass, and
momentum that occur within the ITM.
4b Space-Atmosphere
Coupling
Space-atmosphere coupling accounts for
hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic
processes that influence, with mutual
efficiency, the response of the neutral gas and
plasma. This neutral-plasma coupling is
fundamental to ITM processes. CEDAR has
been successful in identifying coupling
process within the ITM but it is a major
challenge to track how energy, mass and
momentum transform through the system and
alter the system’s properties.
A recent example is based on observations
indicating a connection between sudden
stratospheric warming events, vertical drifts,
and TEC perturbations in the low-latitude
ionosphere. The changes are remarkable and
comparable to those that occur during major
geomagnetic storms. The linkage between
these different altitudes and separate latitude
events most probably lies in the dynamics of
the planetary and gravity wave system of the
lower atmosphere, and their interaction with
the atmospheric tidal system. Recent findings
relate very strong F-region plasma
modifications at the equator to polar
stratospheric warmings after a transport delay
of several days. Such a long delay, over pole
to equator distances and ionosphere to
stratosphere altitudes has, until recently,
masked this long-distance coupling/driver
phenomena from being discovered.
This SSW / SAIR example demonstrates the
need for new observational methodologies
that would enable such relations to be
identified and studied. CEDAR infrastructure,
in conjunction with those of other disciplines
within the Sun-Earth system, will form the
observational network needed to resolve the
coupling processes at work. Indeed it is very
probable that initial findings already indicate
how observational networks need to be
configured. With comprehensive
observational campaigns, the challenge to the
modeling community will readily focus their
attention on the main coupling processes,
which at this time are far from being
integrated.
A depiction of terrestrial weather effects, identified
by planetary wave action in the polar stratosphere,
impacting the equatorial ionosphere. Adopted from
New Scientist article.
4c Space-Atmosphere
Evolution
The SAIR is a dynamical system that
experiences change from wave cycles to solar
cycles and beyond. From a systems
perspective, evolution of the SAIR considers
its dynamic response at multiple temporal
scales as constituents, external sources, and
internal processes change over time.
The Earth is changing and there are
compelling and urgent needs for our CEDAR
community to expand and develop basic
science research to assess and answer society’s
concerns and needs in areas such as climate
disruption, climate change, space climate, and
geoengineering. Furthermore, long term
evolutionary change in space climate or Earth
climate may alter short-term system variability
or multi-scale temporal response in the SAIR.
Long term changes in the SAIR are influenced
by climate changes in the lower atmosphere as
well as changes in the space climate. The
space climate relates to gradual changes in
solar activity, solar wind, and extreme
ultraviolet (EUV) radiation production. The
latest solar minimum from late 2007 to mid-
2009 marks the lowest EUV production and
longest duration in the past four solar cycles
producing unprecedented cold temperatures
in the ionosphere and a compressed
thermosphere.
C/NOFS satellite observed ion temperature (upper
panel) compared to expected conditions based on the
International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model
(bottom panel). Adopted from Heelis et al. 2009.
The figure above contrasts ion temperature
observations in the ionosphere with the IRI
model during the solar minimum phase in
2008. The IRI model is based on the
accumulated knowledge of ionospheric
conditions spanning multiple solar cycles and
thus embodies our knowledge of usual
ionospheric behavior. However, the
observations show a contracted ionosphere
closer to the Earth’s surface, which is cold
and less dense than ever before seen.
Furthermore, the distributions of ions
indicates that the dynamics of the ionosphere
have also changed in unknown ways. Equally
diverse effects are being observed in
thermosphere parameters with the
thermosphere density contracted to levels
never observed during the space era. This has
also led to more impulsive responses of the
thermosphere density to geomagnetic activity
and a greater influence on the ITM from
planetary and tidal wave propagation from the
lower atmosphere.
This period of low solar minimum was also
accompanied by a weaker than normal
interplanetary magnetic field, cosmic rays at
record high levels, high tilt angle of the solar
dipole magnetic field, and low solar wind
pressure. All of these solar surface, solar wind
and interplanetary parameters comprise a
change in the space climate and play an
integral role in how the ITM will evolve.
Many other consequences of this change in
space climate are presently being investigated,
but these changes must also be accompanied
by knowledge of how Earth’s climate change
is impacting the ITM.

The changing Earth’s climate is not only

occurring at meteorological altitudes, but also
at all levels from the magnetospheric
boundary to the deep core of Earth.
Evolution of the Earth’s magnetic field is
evidence of this fact. Over time, the Earth’s
magnetic poles wander, the relative strength
of the field varies, and the relative direction
changes – as demonstrated by the many
degree change in magnetic field dip angle over
the equator over 40 years (see Figure).
The natural laboratory provided by the ITM
system allows us to extract quantitative
measures of the effects of anthropogenic
influences. In 1989, Roble and Dickinson
predicted that a consequence of increasing
CO2 levels would be a decrease in the
temperature of the upper atmosphere, which
in turn causes a decrease in density at constant
altitude. Studies of density changes by
observing the effect of atmospheric drag on
satellite orbits have revealed that
thermospheric density is, in fact,
systematically decreasing by several percent
per decade near 400 km altitude .
Contrasting 2010 and 1960 epochs of magnetic field
dip angle at low latitudes. Dashed lines represent the
magnetic equator. Contours drawn in black (red)
represent the Earth's magnetic field in 2010 (1960).
Anthropogenic global change with increases
in CH4 emissions can increase hydrogen levels
and thus H2O near the mesopause that could
alter polar mesospheric cloud production.
Planetary and gravity wave activity are
expected to increase churning up the ITM and
leading to increased variability and uncertainty
in how the system will evolve under this more
vigorous wave climate. Understanding the full
scope of global change throughout the
atmosphere, and the interplay with space
climate, is important in order to obtain a
complete physical description of aeronomic
processes, as well as for practical goals
pertaining to satellite operations and space
debris hazards. With this understanding the
CEDAR community will be able to quantify
the susceptibility of the system to new, or
changed, influences, including those related to
anthropogenic activities.
The unraveling of long-term trends presents
challenges because of the interplay with
shorter time scale phenomena that,
themselves, are poorly understood. CEDAR
scientists, on the one hand, confirm there are
trends that are consistent with the cooling of
the IT region, while also finding aspects of
these data sets that show the reverse trend.
Today’s best interpretation of the
ionosphere’s long-term trends remains
confused with qualitative appeals to other
dependences that may lead to mixed long-
term trends. Present-day techniques used to
detrend the shorter-term processes are crude,
and much work is needed to improve upon
them.

This effort will require continued investment

in the acquisition and analysis of long-term
data sets, the further development of physics-
based models, continued refinements in
statistical modeling, better knowledge of
connections with solar and Earth processes,
and the application of these resources for
effective prediction/forecasting. These are
long term goals and CEDARmust adjust its
priorities and funding mechanisms in order to
appropriately invest in long-term,
climatological projects.
5. The Systems general, a system is a mapping between
observed drivers and resulting states, for
Perspective example, between solar extreme ultraviolet
Enormous strides have been made in recent flux and ionospheric density. The problem of
decades in understanding the individual parts system identification, which is where CEDAR
of the SAIR system. These have been puts most of its effort, is one of finding the
facilitated by major advances in physical processes that are responsible for the
instrumentation and measurement techniques, observed system response. If the underlying
experimental facilities, and observing state is known (controlled conditions) and the
networks, which are starting to provide drivers are measured (via experiment),
unprecedented volumes of data on processes determining the system (the physics) is
operating across the system. Together with tantamount to the scientific method.
concurrent progress in
computational techniques, these
advances have enabled the
development of ever more
sophisticated, multidimensional
models of geospace. These
models offer the promise of
greater insights into the physical
processes at work and improved
ability to forecast disruptive
events and their potential impacts.

A major challenge for the future is

to develop an integrated, multi-
scale picture of how geospace
works and how it contributes to the broader
The ionosphere, thermosphere, and
Sun-Earth system. Another is to understand
mesosphere, which are themselves complex
the dynamic (highly time varying) and
systems, along with the exosphere,
potentially unstable response of the system to
plasmasphere, broadly define the parts of the
its drivers. Space weather is a prime example
SAIR system. The interactions in question
of this kind of phenomenology. A systems
involve coupling between atmospheric and
approach to understanding the SAIR can
ionospheric layers, latitude zones,
bridge these different challenges and provide
constituents, flow regimes, and temporal and
a structure and focus to evolve our
spatial scales. Many of the components of the
understanding.
system are characterized by having multiple
Systems studies have the goal of drivers, adaptive feedback, memory, and
understanding the behavior of complex sensitivity to initial conditions.
systems consisting of a large number of
mutually interacting and interrelated parts. In
Systems can be interconnected and embedded
within larger systems, as the ITM is embedded
within the Sun-Earth system. The intellectual
framework of the system view enables
transferable concepts across systems and
disciplines to advance and facilitate progress
in understanding our whole Sun-Earth system.
The study of the aurora may be directed
towards the mechanisms responsible for the
emission or towards understanding the
closure of electric currents in the
magnetosphere and ionosphere system.
Although a different context, the concepts of
the system view are the same with the need to
identify the inputs, define or measure the
characteristics of the system, and observe and
predict the response. In fact, one of the
utilities of the system approach is that it
transcends the concept of scale enabling the
characteristics of a complex system to be
The Sun-Earth system and the embedded systems
generally applied to many problems in the
within the ITM.
Sun-Earth system.

A systems approach is not a radical departure
from historic CEDAR methodology. Rather,
it is an explicit focus on how interdependent
and variable processes within the ITM, and
between the ITM and other regions, combine
to produce global SAIR conditions. By its
nature, this focus moves us away from
correlations and snapshots, to patterns of
change, interrelationships and complexity.
System-level science and the large volume of
data required demand advanced observing
capabilities and computer technologies. The
adoption and implementation of a systems
approach is more realizable today with the
rapid expansion of multidimensional
databases, increasing computational
capabilities and sophistication of numerical
tools, and emergence of new sensor
technologies. The powerful and uniform
formalism afforded by the systems approach
will help synthesize results and provide more
rapid evolution of the science. As an added
benefit, the systems approach is expected to
facilitate improved interaction and
collaboration between members of the
geosciences community focusing on different
aspects of the system providing fertile ground
for innovative new ideas.
Not only will the system view provide new
insight into geospace and expose gaps in
knowledge, it will help establish the
technological and infrastructure needs and
specific functionality required to fill those
gaps. Thus, the formulation of CEDAR: The
New Dimension must be developed in
coordination with implementation plans for
more extensive observing networks, modeling
efforts, new collaborations that together will
produce exciting new science. By locating
instruments strategically so as to be able to
measure key inputs and outputs throughout
and across the entire geospace system,
integration of multi-modal data with state-of-
the-art theoretical understanding will enable
predictions of the state of the complex Sun-
Earth system with unprecedented
spatiotemporal scales.
5a Complexity
The SAIR is a system that demonstrates
complexity. Complex systems are
environments comprised of many interacting
elements exchanging energy, mass and
Complexity in the CEDAR Domain: The state properties represent
observables and are the manifestation of coupling and complexity by the
entire interconnected system, with complexity adding a new dimension
to CEDAR research through nonlinearity, preconditioning, feedback,
instability, and emergent behavior.
momentum through nonlinear, dynamical
pathways. Often, the individual elements
themselves are complex systems. Current
knowledge of the ionosphere, thermosphere,
and mesosphere as a complex system emerges
from a solid background of research in
CEDAR. CEDAR’s charter since its inception
has been to study the coupling processes
within the ITM and between the ITM and
geospace. This research has led to advances in
such areas as electrodynamic coupling,
mass/momentum coupling, plasma-neutral
coupling, and chemical-dynamical coupling.
What has emerged from this research is the
recognition that many of these natural
coupling processes are linked through system
processes that demonstrate complexity.
For example, a particular
disturbance can trigger multiple
nonlinear feedbacks among
system components, which can
amplify, attenuate, or even change
the nature of the expected
response. The generation of
instabilities and their interaction
with the mean flow produces
nonlinearities that can occur over
a range of temporal and spatial
scales. Initial conditions and
history (which includes
preconditioning of system
components and system memory)
matters in determining the final
state of the system. As the system
responds to forcing, unexpected
behavior can emerge.
The origin of many of these
features is contained in the
complexity of the system and not
in the individual components or a
singular coupling process. What is observed is
actually the integrated response of the entire
interconnected system. As a result, it is not
enough to break the system into smaller
digestible pieces to advance an understanding
of how the complex system behaves and
responds. Clear cause and effect can be
understood only when these effects are
accounted for in an integrated way.
Thus, physical coupling processes must be
linked with system complexity processes.
Focusing on the interaction among these
various processes draws together and
completes past and continuing research on
individual components and processes initiated
in CEDAR. But it also pushes us toward
global questions and new ways of viewing
problems, which provides fertile ground for
innovation. By casting these broader views,
gaps in knowledge become clearer.
exchange of energy, mass and momentum
leading to alterations of state properties.
System characteristics can be described by
universal concepts of nonlinearity,
preconditioning, feedback, instability and
emergent behavior. Cross-scale coupling
serves to link coupling processes with system
characteristics over different spatial and
temporal scales. The dynamical aspects of the
complex system involve the evolution of
inputs, system characteristics and state
properties from wave cycles to solar cycles.
Exciting results from the CEDAR program
(below) provide tantalizing glimpses of
complex properties of the ITM system.
These, and others examples not described
here, provide a rich resource for designing
and focusing the New Dimension phase of
CEDAR.

Experience from CEDAR indicates there are

key areas, such as neutral winds, electrical
conductivity and other basic properties, where
breakthroughs are required in order to enable
a first system-level understanding of the ITM.
System science provides an intellectual
framework which naturally focuses questions
and integrates new knowledge in ways that
will transform our understanding of the ITM
system and its influences on geospace and the
broader Sun-Earth system. CEDAR: The New
Dimension focuses on complex processes
within the ITM system as the next
transformative step to properly and reliably
predict state behavior of geospace and
understand its connectedness with other parts
of the Sun-Earth system.

Complexity considers the system

characteristics and their response to the
Initial Conditions,
Preconditioning and Memory
The initial conditions (initial inputs) of a
system must be specified in order to predict
its state at future times. If certain states can
only be reached with the correct choice of
initial conditions, then the set of all possible
initial conditions that permit that state define
its precondition. Preconditioning appears to
be necessary for a number of important
phenomena in ITM physics, which
consequently require comprehensive
observations and modeling to understand.
Systems for which the present input is derived
from previous outputs are said to have
memory. A particularly complicated situation
arises when preconditioning can only be
satisfied by systems with a particular history.
Preconditioning: Thermosphere density change
differs by 200% at 400 km altitude for the same
geomagnetic energy input but preconditioned with
solar maximum and solar minimum EUV fluxes.
For example, the neutral atmosphere and
ionosphere are key agents for preconditioning
geospace. They respond strongly to both
magnetospheric energy sources and solar
EUV and X-ray enhancements, the responses
coming over a wide range of temporal and
spatial scales. Moreover, they preserve the
recent history of energy inputs and introduce
seasonal and solar cycle effects. Periodic,
impulsive energy inputs embedded within
longer active time periods may cause different
dynamics within the system to emerge, so that
the thermospheric and ionospheric response
to the second or third substorm in a series of
substorms may be quite different than the
response to the first. If a system has memory
and requires preconditioning, the definition of
the initial time becomes very important.
Specifically, observations, theories, and
models of the system must include time scales
that span the complete memory of the system.
Nonlinearity
Many of the component regions of the SAIR
exhibit nonlinear behavior, which is to say
that their response to multiple inputs is not, in
general, the superposition of the responses to
the inputs taken separately. Crucially, the
outcomes of nonlinear systems are not
independent but are instead coupled. This
provides a mechanism for transporting energy
and other quantities across spatial scales.
Atmospheric waves, such as tides, planetary
and gravity waves, are a prime example of
nonlinearity in the system. The tides in the
thermosphere appear as global scale waves in
density, temperature, and wind – a whole
system response to migrating and
nonmigrating sources. They can be forced by
the absorption of sunlight in the lower
atmosphere, non-linear wave-wave
interactions and by latent heat release in
tropospheric clouds. These waves grow with
amplitude as they propagate upward and can
dominate the thermal and dynamical structure
of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere.
The frontier in our understanding of waves
and tides in the upper atmosphere lies not in
the linear theory of these waves, but in the
quantification of their amplitudes and
variability produced by nonlinear wave-wave
Nonlinearity: Latitude-longitude distributions of
the diurnal component of (a) latent heating rate at
6.5 km altitude derived from TRMM satellite data
and (b) the corresponding measured diurnal
temperature amplitudes at 95 km derived from
TIMED/SABER temperature measurements.
Note the predominant wave-4 longitude
distribution of land-sea difference is reflected in
the latent heating rates and in the generated tides
that impose a striking wave-4 longitude
distribution on the lower thermosphere.
and wave-mean interactions. Nonlinear
breaking of gravity waves in the mesosphere is
a significant momentum source for the region
but the processes of converting and cascading
this energy to the mean flow across a range of
spatial and temporal scales is very much an
area of active research. In turbulent regions,
energy can be cascaded from larger to smaller
scales, where it is readily dissipated, or
sometimes from smaller to larger scales,
where it can accumulate in reservoirs. Wave
mode coupling can also behave like scattering
phenomena, transporting energy and other
quantities between widely separated regions
via circuitous pathways. Numerous other
nonlinear processes prevail in the SAIR and
new processes are yet to be discovered.
Feedback
If an output from an event in the past
influences the occurrence of an event in the
present or future, there is feedback in the
system. Systems with feedback often exhibit
complex behaviors that would be difficult to
diagnose and understand outside of a systems
theory approach.

Feedback: Neutral motions driven by past
forcing feedback electrodynamically on present
electrical connections by driving dynamo fields.
The upper atmosphere inherently is a multi-
variable system, with properties experiencing
a wide range of temporal and spatial
responses. Consequently the role of feedback
processes in the system can occur through a
range of possibilities. An interesting example
is the behavior of currents in the ionosphere.
The net current depends on the electron
density, electric field, neutral density, and
neutral wind. Each of these state properties
can have a different response to a past input
leading to an alteration of the present current
configuration.
The neutral wind is particular challenging
because of its long memory of past forcing
due to its inertia. Thermospheric winds can be
modified by interactions with electric currents.
However, if the neutral wind is also
responding to past forcing from other
sources, it can modify the electric current
configuration and strength with consequences
felt throughout the geospace system. The
modified currents then feed back on the
neutral winds to create a complicated
feedback loop. Feedback is also very common
in chemical and dynamical interactions that
occur throughout the ITM.
Instability
A characteristic property of a complex system,
like the SAIR, is nonlinearity that leads to
instability, a condition where one or more of
the system states exhibits growth without
bound. Most interesting is what happens
when free energy accumulates and is then
abruptly released in various upper-
atmospheric and ionospheric instabilities.
Neutral and plasma instabilities are common
Instability: Equatorial plasma instability forms
spontaneously and regularly at low magnetic
latitudes. At sunset, recombination pushes the F
region ionosphere into instability. The underlying
free energy is gravitational. A broad spectrum of
plasma irregularities is produced spanning scale sizes
from tens of cm to hundreds of km. Energy is
coupled from the large-scale irregularities, which
serve as a persistent reservoir, to small-scales, where
dissipation is most efficient. At small scales, the
irregularities disrupt communication signals through
refraction, diffraction, and scattering.
in the ITM and complicate data analysis,
interpretation, and modeling considerably.
Instability effects are often parameterized
where they cannot be treated using first
principles theory or modeling. Reducing
reliance on parameterization is a goal of
continued investigation if a complete systems
description is to be achieved.
Emergent Behavior
Perhaps the most interesting characteristic of
complex systems is the emergence of new
features. Emergent behavior results from the
interaction of a large number of system
components that could not have been
anticipated on the basis of the properties of
components acting individually. Although it
is as yet unclear which features in geospace
represent emergence, there are some
obviously strong candidates. These include
ionospheric super-fountains, great red
auroras, storm enhanced densities, and
enhanced NOx transport into the
stratosphere during sudden stratospheric
warmings. Each of these phenomena is a
signature of strong coupling between the
upper atmosphere and other regions in
geospace or the lower atmosphere.
For example, the super- fountain and storm
enhanced densities have their source in high-
latitude penetrating electric fields and thus are
tied to the physical processes that produce
shielding in the inner magnetosphere. The
shielding in turn is modified by ionospheric
conductivity gradients. Only during extreme
events do these penetrating electric fields
achieve magnitudes necessary to lift the
ionosphere to high altitudes before shielding
can be re-established resulting in deep
spatially extended depletions of the equatorial
ionosphere seen at no other time.
Progress in understanding each of these
phenomena and, more importantly, in
understanding what their appearance implies
about coupling and complexity in geospace,
requires an integrative approach that takes
into account the dynamically evolving
interaction between regions.
5b Cross-Scale Coupling
Cross-scale coupling provides the link
between the dimensions of complexity and
coupling. The SAIR inherently is a multi-scale
system, with energy inputs occurring over a
wide range of scales and the system response
dependent on the system complexity at those
scales. For example, auroral arcs occur over
scales of less than 10 km, the auroral oval is
typically about 5,000 km (almost 3 orders of
magnitude larger), while dayside solar EUV
heating spans 40,000km. These very different
scales of energy input result in responses that
are dependent on the characteristic conditions
of the SAIR, i.e. complexity. These different
scales for ionization lead to very structured
ionospheric conductivity. This behavior can
Scales: The auroral oval depicts a large range
of spatial as well as temporal scales.
also produce very structured electric fields.
Together this creates a tremendous challenge
in ITM research that essentially leads to
“missing energy” in numerical models.
The “missing energy” puzzle developed as
increases in Joule Heating by factors of 2 to 3
were needed in global circulation models to
adequately reproduce the global wind and
temperature structure. Using the accepted
statistical patterns of particle precipitation and
plasma convection it was possible to
reproduce the neutral temperature structure
or the wind fields, but not both at the same
time. It became apparent that there was a
need to increase the temperature (through
Joule heating) without increasing the winds
(momentum transfer between ions and
neutrals) at high latitudes. This was puzzling
Energy: Currents closing in the ionosphere can
exhibit significant variability in time and space
that alters the amount of energy deposited in the
ITM.
as increasing the average electric fields or
particle precipitation fluxes increased both
temperature and neutral winds. Small scale
variability in the high-latitude ion convection
is proposed as a way to solve the missing
energy puzzle. Electric field variability can
increase the Joule Heating without increasing
the neutral winds. Numerous studies have
investigated and supported the importance of
small scale electric field variability in the
calculation of the global energy budget of the
thermosphere. It turns out that small-scale
electric field variability can contribute up to
50% of the total Joule Heating. Thus, sub-grid
structure in energy input can lead to global-
scale response of the ITM through cross-scale
coupling.
Conversely, CEDAR observations, models,
and analysis techniques, are being used to
unravel the ITM influences on the three-
dimensional dynamics of the geospace system,
from the smallest scales (e.g., decameter-scale
structure in the aurora), to the largest scales
(ion and neutral outflow to space) using the
concepts inherent in cross-scale coupling.
A “Cybernetic” Example
Cybernetics is the interdisciplinary study of
the structure of a system that is regulated by
the system characteristics. Cybernetics
provides a useful framework for investigating
complexity in the SAIR.
As an example, magnetospheric electric field
mapping and energetic particle precipitating
into the polar thermosphere strongly drives
the state of the ITM system. The output of
interest is the thermosphere neutral
temperature. There is a known direct
connection of thermosphere heating by
particles and electric fields through collisions
with the neutral gas. However, the state of the
ITM as it responds to these inputs depends
on properties and behavior of the larger
geospace system. The precipitating particles
not only heat but ionize the thermosphere,
altering the conductivity of the ionosphere
and the electrical coupling with the
magnetosphere leading to a modification of
the source electric fields and energetic
particles. This feedback changes the inputs
and consequently the thermosphere
temperature observed as an output of the
system. Furthermore, nonlinearity is
introduced through chemical processes in the
thermosphere/ionosphere. Particle
precipitation leads to the production of nitric
oxide that acts as a radiator and a dominant
cooling mechanism for the thermosphere.

A system’s prior state may also have an

influence on its present state, which is to say
that the system exhibits hysteresis or memory.
Thermosphere gas motion can alter the Joule
heating of the gas. The massive inertia of the
neutral gas retains memory of past forcing
and can alter the present response of the
system. As mentioned above, the highly
structured and temporally varying nature of
Joule heating in the polar regions challenges
the resolution of the most sophisticated
models and observations, and leads to a
global-scale change in thermosphere
temperature, demonstrating cross-scale
Cybernetic Example: Systems within systems
coupling. Moreover, the input electric fields prevail in the SAIR. Each system’s complexity is
can drive instabilities in the lower ionosphere coupled to others over various scales and results
that produce plasma wave heating of the in a response that can only be determined
electrons. This temperature change in the through an integrated system analysis.
electron gas can further alter the chemical it into its constituent processes. However,
interactions occurring between the plasma and experience in CEDAR has taught us that the
neutral gas and impact the thermosphere gas breakthroughs needed to transform our
energy budget. Finally the thermospheric understanding of the global geospace system
temperature change can enhance heavy ion will require studies focused on complexity
outflow to the magnetosphere which can lead itself. And this complex system is but one part
to the saturation of solar wind driving in the of a larger complex system which includes the
ionosphere through the magnetosphere magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere,
response to the mass loading by these heavy mesosphere, and the lower atmosphere and
ions. the processes that couple them.

This subsystem example is considered

complex, not because it is difficult, but
because it represents a highly dynamic,
nonlinear, and potentially unstable system.
Traditionally this complexity has been treated
as something to be overcome by looking at
the problem in different ways or by breaking
6 The Way STRATEGIC THRUST #1:
Encourage and Undertake a
Forward
Systems Perspective of
The 21st Century approach to understanding Geospace
the Sun-Earth system is to explore new
Mission: To understand global connectivities and
avenues of progress, building on past decades
causal relationships involving the SAIR and to
of accomplishments. While technological
determine their influences on the interaction region and
advances have always been instrumental in
the whole Earth system. The ultimate goal is to
scientific discovery, the extraordinary pace of
contribute to a holistic model of the Earth system that
recent ground-based and satellite observing
includes all interacting components from the Earth’s
methods, data processing and assimilation,
core to geospace. This effort is aimed at predicting
and computer simulation capabilities have
future conditions with the accuracy and reliability
propelled virtually all aspects of space physics
needed to explore methodologies for continued human
beyond classic discovery mode science in a
wellbeing and sustainable technological development of
remarkably short time. Discovery itself has
our planet.
taken on a new meaning in the field, one that
includes the identification of hidden linkages Focus: As described in earlier sections, the
necessary for understanding complex systems SAIR exhibits the characteristic behavior of a
driven by internally and externally coupled coupled and complex system. A wide variety
components. It is this aspect of CEDAR of coupling and complexity mechanisms are
science that needs development and direction present that determine the state of the ITM
to open new avenues for discovery. and significantly influence other geospace
regions. The majority of these mechanisms
CEDAR: The New Dimension promotes this
have their basis in neutral-ion interactions,
activity by being proactive in developing a
wave-mean interactions, and electrodynamic,
systems perspective to study the SAIR. To
chemical and dynamical processes. It is
motivate action for this plan, a number of
impossible, for example, to understand the
strategic thrusts are identified as guidance and
detailed development of a geomagnetic storm
impetus for the community in the coming
without understanding mass and momentum
decade. This directive does not abandon time-
flows between the ionosphere and the
tested CEDAR approaches involving
magnetosphere as well as changes in
observations, theory, and modeling to acquire
magnetospheric electric fields and currents
detailed understanding of the components of
that result from dynamic variations in
the larger system. The strategic thrusts
ionospheric conductivity. All of these
described below must be pursued in parallel
processes (and even their component parts)
with traditional scientific approaches. The
have different relationships to solar driving,
enabling technologies discussed in this
occur across a wide range of spatial and
document have not only made it possible to
temporal scales, and combine in ways that we
undertake such a two-pronged approach; they
do not yet understand to produce a global
have also made it scientifically rewarding and
geospace system response. CEDAR has
fruitful.
taught us that major uncertainties hinder
progress in this area. For example, the global
pattern of neutral winds, central to
understanding processes involving ion-neutral
coupling, is known only in an average sense.
This climatological characterization is
insufficient to address the dynamically
evolving linkages that produce ionospheric
storm fronts, create ionospheric depletions,
structure neutral and ion outflows and
produce a range of ionospheric instabilities
that interrupt communication systems. It is
also insufficient to investigate vertical
transport processes, such as the draw of
aurorally-produced nitric oxide down into the
stratosphere through the polar vortex to
destroy ozone. Despite the major role
electrodynamic interactions play in linking the
SAIR to the magnetosphere and lower
atmosphere, the self-consistent patterns of
field-aligned currents, precipitation,
ionospheric conductivity, polarization electric
fields, jets and sprites have never been
adequately integrated to describe the electrical
system of Earth.
CEDAR’s New Dimension Program will set
priorities and design a program aimed at
transforming our understanding of the SAIR
and its influence on the whole Earth system
using the intellectual framework of system
science. This represents a paradigm shift in
how the Sun-Earth science community must
advance in order to solve future problems.
Such a program requires innovative new
instrumentation focused on long-standing
unknowns and development of next-
generation global models aimed at
representing the major coupling and
complexity processes that determine the state
of the SAIR, exploring its predictability and
investigating mechanisms for self-consistently
including sub-grid scale phenomena in ways
that preserve their influences on the global
system response.
Implementation:
• Investigate the applicability of formal
systems-theoretical methodologies to
better understand complexity in the
SAIR
• Explore system characteristics of the
space-atmosphere interaction region
in terms of nonlinearities,
preconditioning and memory,
feedback, instabilities, emergent
behavior, and cross-scale coupling
• Augment the review criteria for the
annual CEDAR proposal competition
to include consideration of systems
science formulation, and encourage
organizers of the Annual CEDAR
Workshop to highlight research that
emphasizes a system science approach
or view.
STRATEGIC THRUST #2:
Explore Exchange Processes at
Boundaries and Transitions
Mission: To understand the transformation and
exchange of mass, momentum and energy at
transitions within the ITM and through boundaries
that connect with the lower atmosphere and the
magnetosphere. Studying these transitions and
boundaries in terms of physical processes enables new
knowledge about the nature of our Interaction Region
applicable to Earth and other planetary bodies.
Focus: This scientific thrust focuses on how
components of a complex system
communicate through mass, momentum and
energy exchange across intervening
boundaries and transform within the ITM.
The components may be spatially distinct
(such as the thermosphere and mesosphere)
or overlapping in space but dominated by
different processes (such as the ionosphere
and thermosphere). Interactions amongst
components are a common feature of
complex systems; thus new knowledge in this
area is applicable to a wide range of planetary,
solar system, exo-planetary and cosmic
environments where neutral gases interact
with plasmas.
The SAIR contains a variety of unique
interactions between neutrals and plasmas.
These interactions mediate the flux of harmful
energetic solar photons, solar wind plasmas,
and high energy solar particles and dissipate
the energy by electromagnetic interactions
with the neutral gas. Equally SAIR
interactions can amplify influences from the
lower atmosphere. The boundaries between
the SAIR and the rest of the Sun-Earth
system regulate energy, mass and momentum
exchange. Identification and quantification of
flux transport across boundaries is an essential
element to this thrust.
Implementation:
• Characterize sources and sinks
internally and externally to the SAIR
and their possible variations due to
the coupling and complexity of the
Sun-Earth system.
• Advance theories and coupled models
that account for processes at
transitions and across boundaries
• Develop computational resources,
techniques, and analyses enabling
predictive capabilities that incorporate
boundary and transitional effects
STRATEGIC THRUST #3:
Explore Processes Related to
Geospace Evolution
Mission: To understand and predict evolutionary
change in the geospace system and the implications for
Earth and other planetary systems.
Focus: Earth’s climate is changing, not only
at meteorological altitudes, but at all levels
from the magnetospheric boundary to the
deep core of the Earth. The overall behavior
and future evolution of the geospace system
results from the integration of changes across
all regions, and from the interactions among
those regions. Historically, the various
geospace regions have been studied by
different communities, using different
techniques, and often driven by different
motivations. There has been little perceived
need, or apparent relevance, in accounting for
variations occurring in adjacent regions. The
CEDAR community has been, and remains,
spectacularly successful in addressing issues
within its own region of study, but has made
only minor inroads in addressing cross-region
coupling and energy flows with neighboring
systems of the lower, denser atmosphere and
the plasma-dominated magnetosphere.
The understanding of SAIR evolution will be
important in applying this knowledge to other
planetary systems. Thus, this strategic thrust
also embodies planetary aeronomy and the
evolutionary processes that can be important
in a planet’s habitable development. CEDAR
science is closely related to the broad field of
planetary aeronomy. Comparative planetary
aeronomy remains a fertile research path to
the development and validation of dynamic
and chemical models, through applications to
similar systems with characteristically different
forcing and composition. Our understanding
of atmospheric evolution is couched in the
knowledge of the evolutionary paths taken by
our nearest terrestrial neighbors.
Implementation:
• Conduct studies to identify and isolate
observables that most significantly
influence long-term changes in
geospace conditions
• Ensure calibration and validation of
relevant observations for reliable
identification of long-term trends
• Develop funding and observing
models to maintain and improve long-
term databases that have become the
hallmark of CEDAR science for many
years
• Conduct studies of comparative
planetary aeronomy to advance
physical understanding of atmospheric
evolution
STRATEGIC THRUST #4:
Develop Observational and
Instrumentation Strategies for
Geospace System Studies
Mission: To develop instruments capable of
measuring system properties necessary to examine the
coupling mechanisms and complexity within the
SAIR. To exploit existing and planned observational
assets in order to optimize scientific return.
Focus: Strategic developments and
deployments of future scientific
instrumentation are critical for advancing our
research and understanding in the field. The
multivariate-system nature of our research
requires that simultaneous observations
spanning the varied aspects and regions of the
system are needed to address adequately its
complexities and couplings. Carefully
coordinated sets of observations from
ground-based sensor networks and satellites
could drive major breakthroughs in our
understanding of the connections and
feedbacks between geospace regions. A broad
spectrum of radio, optical, in-situ, and
remote-sensing techniques is needed to
provide the continuous, simultaneous
observations dictated by the characteristics
and processes of the ITM system.
In the same way that CEDAR: The New
Dimension incorporates the resources of the
diverse CEDAR research community to
address system-level issues, the approach
requires the proper incorporation of the
growing number of separate instrument arrays
(ISRs, SuperDARN, HF/MF radars, lidars,
magnetometers, imagers, FPIs, GPS and other
sensors). The existing and developing
infrastructure must also provide observations
of our complex, coupled system with the
resolution and cadence needed to unravel its
complexity. A distributed array of sensors for
observing the SAIR is envisioned as an
evolutionary initiative, with a larger and more
capable future, particularly when combined
with advanced data processing and mining
techniques, such as innovative search
algorithms, image and pattern recognition
software, and automated data correlation
tools.
Implementation:
• Coordinate multi-platform
observational campaigns that take
advantage of existing and new
instrumentation and facilities
• Conduct studies to determine the
optimum type and placement of large
observatories or instruments and plan
for strategic deployment of future
instruments that best serve the needs
of the CEDAR community
• Develop smart sensors (i.e.,
autonomous, reconfigurable, robust,
low-power, etc.) that optimize
measurements in response to changing
geophysical conditions
• Pursue the advancement of
innovative, space-based sensing
platforms, including small satellites,
suborbital rockets, and large space
missions for CEDAR research
STRATEGIC THRUST #5: Fuse
the Knowledge Base across
Disciplines
Mission: To promote collaborations in related but
distinct disciplines of geosciences, mathematics,
engineering, and physics to attract a greater variety of
researchers and students spawning new ideas and
methodologies that will more rapidly advance geospace
studies.
Focus: Investigations of SAIR frontiers
require collaborations of researchers in
multiple CEDAR disciplines contributing a
wide variety of data sets, intellect, research
techniques and models all focused on a
common science objective. This does not
happen by chance but requires organizational
structure and carefully selected science topics
around which to focus interactions. The
phased adoption and evolution of structures
that support and enable these interactions will
help to revolutionize the way in which
collaborative SAIR research is done now and
in the future. The system’s perspective
demands this level of collaboration and
embraces national and international activities
that can mutually advance understanding of
geospace.
The multidisciplinary makeup of CEDAR
researchers enables this approach. CEDAR
research lies firmly in mathematics, physics,
engineering, geosciences, cyberinfrastructure,
astronomy, and other distinct disciplines.
CEDAR must formulate approaches to be
better connected with broader activities and
initiate new ones. Training and education of
students along with researchers is an integral
part of our success.
Implementation:
• Promote broader, interdisciplinary
participation at the Annual CEDAR
Workshop
• Coordinate with other geospace
communities as well as engineering
mathematical, and computational
science communities to enhance
CEDAR research and encourage
collaborative pursuit of cross-
disciplinary funding opportunities
• Work with the International
community and organizations, such as
CAWSES, ICESTAR, EISCAT, EGS,
 AOGS, etc., to formulate strategic manipulated to provide the necessary
approaches that address global issues observations of complex system behavior.

• Provide an interdisciplinary Implementation:

educational, research and technology
framework, including curriculum • Implement standardized data formats
development, that excites, trains, and and calibration procedures that will
supports future generations of facilitate data acquisition and the
researchers in the field establishment of accessible and user-
friendly databases
STRATEGIC THRUST #6:
• Continue to evolve data assimilation
Manage, Mine and Manipulate schemes to integrate data with physics
Geoscience Data and Models based models for improved predictive
capability
Mission: To tap the vast resources of burgeoning
geoscience data to provide a new view of geospace, • Develop advanced analysis techniques
optimize information for proper deployment locations needed for effective fusion of
of key instruments and measurements to further observations into sophisticated
scientific productivity, discover correlations and inference models
contribute to understanding their causalities, contribute
to determining the evolution of geospace by • Develop automated pattern analysis,
manipulation and evaluation of multiple observables detection, recognition, tracking, and
over extended observing periods. reconstruction techniques for
application to CEDAR data
Focus: New data technologies have changed
the research landscape of the upper
atmosphere. The GPS revolution has opened
an entirely new way to investigate ionosphere
and middle atmosphere properties. New
satellite missions provide data products of
Earth science processes that serve as input to
models for assimilation and prediction. New
whole atmosphere models are under
development trailblazing a path towards
predicting the system level response of the
atmosphere including geospace. Data
parameterizations in numerical simulation will
remain a necessity until models are extended
to self-consistently describe their behavior.
Data comparisons with models are also
inefficient in determining what unknowns are
driving the system. Lastly data need to be