HUMAN POPULATION AND URBANISATION

CONTENTS

• Population explosion

• Urbanization and sustainability

• Challenges of megacities

• Urban sprawl

• Smart growth

• Eco-cities and sustainable mobility

 POPULATION EXPLOSION

• We are nearly 8 billion

humans living on earth’s
surface.

• The world population is

expected to reach 10.4
billion by 2100 (UN, 2022).
POPULATION EXPLOSION

• Factors affecting the population

size are
• Fertility
• Mortality
• Migration

• The study of population is called

demography.
FERTILITY

https://www.indiaonlinepages.com/population/populat
ion-map-of-india.html
 FERTILITY

Fertility rate:
Number of live
births/1,000
people/year

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_birth_rate
 FERTILITY RATE

https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-
rate#:~:text=Up%20to%201965%20the%20average,is%20now%20below%202.5%20 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN
children.
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

• The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children born to
women in a population during their reproductive years.

• Between 1955 and 2011, TFR dropped from 5 to 2.5.

• A TFR of 2.1 will eventually halt the world’s population growth.

• Between 2017 and 2050, half of the world's population growth will
be concentrated in nine countries: India, Nigeria, the Democratic
Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of
Tanzania, the United States of America, Uganda and Indonesia
 MORTALITY RATE

Mortality rate:
Number of
deaths/1,000
people/year
2021

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CDRT.IN?type=shaded&view=map
MORTALITY RATE
MORTALITY RATE
What explains the change in the number of children women have?
• Where women are better educated they tend to have fewer children
The increasing labor force participation of women is a second
aspect of women's rising empowerment in society and this change
too tends to lead to a decline of the number of children that
women have.
• Higher child mortality causes higher fertility rates
• Declining child labor reduced fertility rates
• More education for children made having children more expensive
• Lower child mortality increases the incentives to invest more resources
into children
• Methods of contraception give parents the chance to get the actual
fertility closer to their desired fertility.
MIGRATION

Migration refers to the process of individuals entering (immigration) or

leaving (emigration) a certain geographic region.
Migration may be due to:
• Voluntary (Mostly for jobs and study)

• Involuntary (refugee camps (Syrian refugees in Europe)),

• Forced (as when many First Nations were removed from the lands they had
lived in for generations).
MIGRATION
MIGRATION

https://thewire.in/world/india-has-the-worlds-biggest-diaspora
CONSEQUENCES OF OVER POPULATION
URBANISATION
• Urbanization is the increasing population in cities and towns.
• The distinction between rural and urban is not clearly delineated.
• A spatially concentrated population of over 100,000 people often behaves
like a city, regardless of its classification.
URBANISATION

According to sociologist Gideon Sjoberg (1965), there are three

prerequisites for the development of a city:
• First, good environment with fresh water and a favorable climate;
• Second, advanced technology, which will produce a food surplus to support
non-farmers; and
• Third, strong social organization to ensure social stability and a stable economy.
• As the world is undergoing the largest wave of population growth in
history, urbanization ‒the process of transition from a rural to a more
urban society ‒ is inevitable.
 URBANISATION

• More than half of the world’s population now

lives in cities.
• Urban areas have higher incomes and
consumption, greater access to political power,
higher rates of economic growth, and, per
capita, place a higher pressure on natural
resources.
• In 2018, 55% of the world's population lived in
cities.
• In 2007, the worldwide urban population
surpassed the rural population for the first time,
and it has remained mostly urban thereafter. The
rise in population and the percentage living in
cities drive urban population growth.
URBANISATION
 URBANISATION

US, China, India

have the highest
urban
agglomerations
 URBANISATION

Tokyo is the world’s

largest city with an
agglomeration of 38
million inhabitants,
followed by Jakarta
with 35 million, Delhi
with 30 million.
 URBANISATION / INDIA

• The country's diverse economy has

led to significant urbanization
since independence.
• The population in urban areas of
India has grown from 11.4% in
1901 to 28.53% in 2001 and
34% in 2017, as reported by The
World Bank.
• UN estimates that 40.76% of the
population will live in cities by
2030.
URBANISATION
URBANISATION

https://www.livemint.com/Politics/8WPPsZygqR
7Mu6e3Fgy55N/A-million-migrations-Journeys-
in-search-of-jobs.html
BENEFITS OF URBANISATION

• Urban areas are global economic

platforms for production,
innovation and trade, and offer
significant opportunities for both
formal and informal employment.
• Urbanization has helped millions
escape poverty through increased
productivity and employment
opportunities; improved quality of
life via better education and
health; largescale public
investment and access to improved
infrastructure and services.
URBAN CHALLENGES

• Inadequate capacity to meet the demand for services.

• Socioeconomic inequalities.
• Feelings of inadequacy and societal turmoil.
• Allocation of resources towards ensuring safety and security.
SUSTAINABLE URBANISATION

• The rapid growth of cities is outpacing the capacity of national and

municipal governments to effectively plan, construct, and oversee these
transformations, making sustainable urbanization a pressing concern.
• Inadequately administered and disorganized urban development has
the potential to
impair economic progress and hinder corporate prospects.
pose a risk to security by escalating criminal activities, acts of violence, and
extremist ideologies
• Conversely, communities that are effectively governed have the
potential to act as influential catalysts for economic opportunities,
innovation, and advancement.
SUSTAINABLE URBANISATION

 Sustainable urbanization is essential for:

• Creating opportunities for business investment, economic growth, and jobs.
• Keeping things stable and stopping violence, crime, and extremism.
• Enhancing resilience to deal with and recover from shocks to the economy,
natural disasters, and extreme weather.
• Getting rid of infectious illnesses and improving health around the world.
• Increasing the use of local resources, financial independence, and transparency
in government.
• Increasing women's economic independence and access to services, and
lowering abuse against women.
• Boosting food security and agricultural growth by making connections between
country and urban areas stronger.
SUSTAINABLE URBANISATION

https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/5/492
MEGA CITIES
Megacities, i.e., metropolitan regions with populations in excess of 10 million people.
 CHALLENGES OF MEGA CITIES

• Major challenges are

• High income inequality and slums
• Unemployment (growth of population >
growth of employment)
• Traffic regulation
• Sanitation
• Other Social and Health issues

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-tops-world-in-bad-air-quality-kanpur-
delhi-among-top-15-mumbai-4th-most-polluted-
megacity/articleshow/63997130.cms?from=mdr
CHALLENGES OF MEGA CITIES

 Compact cities
• Limited land area with high population density, thus growing vertically
• Most people get around by walking, biking, or using mass transit
Example: Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo

 Dispersed cities
• Ample land area available for outward expansion
• Residents mostly depend on motor vehicles for transportation
Example: Cities in Australia, Canada, China, India and the United States
SPATIAL PATTERN OF CITIES/URBANISATION

• It is the distribution of the activities in an urban area.

• There are three different types of spatial patterns. They are

1. Concentric zone model
• Also known as Burgess model or Bulls Eye model

2. Sector zone model

• Also known as Hoyt model

3. Multiple Nuclei model

 CONCENTRIC ZONE MODEL
• A concentric circle city, such as Kolkata and
Chicago, develops outward from its central
business district (CBD) in a series of rings as
the area grows in population and size.
• Social structure extends outwards from CBD
• Population density decreases outwards from
CBD

Drawbacks
• Doesn’t work with modern cities
• Assumes flat land
• Assumes a constant landscape
https://urbandesignlab.in/understanding-the-concentric-zone-model/
 SECTOR ZONE MODEL

• Cities would tend to grow in wedge-shaped

patterns
emanating from CBD
• It is a monocentric representation of urban areas
• Transportation and access to resources
caused disruption in the burgess model
• It applies to numerous British cities
Drawbacks
• Physical features - physical features may restrict
or direct growth along certain wedges
• The theory too lacks the idea based on land https://planningtank.com/settlement-geography/sector-model-hoyt-model
topography.
MULTIPLE NUCLEI MODEL

• Multiple small CBD’s (nuclei) can be

developed in any area
• Metropolitan Los Angeles comes fairly close
to this pattern.
The model assumes that:
• Land is not flat in all areas
• Even Distribution of Resources
• Even Distribution of people in Residential
areas
• Even Transportation Costs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_nuclei_model
 URBAN SPRAWL

• Rapid growth of cities beyond their

boundaries, to nearby low density
areas, suburbs, rural areas.
• Because of this, cities and their
areas end up taking over more and
more rural land.
• Urban sprawl is a complicated issue
that goes beyond the average
number of people living in an area.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/urban-sprawl
CAUSES OF URBAN SPRAWL
• Urban sprawl is influenced by various causes including demographics,
economics, geography, social dynamics, and technology.

• As the population of a city exceeds its capacity, the local villages

progressively expand further out from the city center.

• Individuals are influenced by factors such as rising wealth, appealing real

estate pricing, and the aspiration for spacious homes with added features
like yards, swimming pools, storage space, less noise, improved air quality,
and seclusion.

• Crucially, sprawl is also influenced by government policies. This phenomena

is contributed to by various factors, including constraints on maximum density,
special regulations on zoning, tax systems that do not line with the social cost
of low-density development, the undervaluation of externalities associated
with car use, and the significant investment in road infrastructure.
CONSEQUENCES OF URBAN SPRAWL
 CONSEQUENCES OF URBAN SPRAWL

As they grow and sprawl

outward, separate urban areas
may merge to form a megapolis.
For example, the remaining
open space between Boston,
Massachusetts, and Washington
D.C., is rapidly urbanizing and
coalescing.

http://eebweb.arizona.edu/courses/Ecol206/206_L18n19_SE5n10_2005.pdf
REGULATING URBAN SPRAWL
• There are different types of strategies that local leaders can choose from to
help reduce sprawl.
• Limits on building permits and limits on how cities can grow
• Techniques that are based on incentives, such as special taxing areas
• By moving development rights from rural to urban areas, growth can be kept
in the central business center and other areas nearby.
• Infrastructure-based policies, like targeted public investments, capital
improvements programming, and phasing of development.
• Local governments can buy and protect ecologically important areas using a
variety of land acquisition methods, such as fee-simple purchase of parcels
and conservation easements.
• There are educational and social programs that are meant to help a wide
range of people understand the bad effects of sprawl and how to lessen
them.
REGULATING URBAN SPRAWL
• Some cities manage urban sprawl and
provide open space by enclosing a big
city with a greenbelt. A greenbelt is an
open space that can be used for
recreation, sustainable forestry, or other
nondestructive activities.
• People can live outside the belt in
"satellite towns," which are smaller cities
that are close to bigger cities but mostly
separate from them.
• People can get from the edges of the
city to the center by using highways or
train systems.
 REGULATING URBAN SPRAWL

• Setting up an urban
growth boundary—a
line around a city
beyond which new
construction is not
allowed—is another
method that is
becoming more and
more popular for
protecting open space
outside of cities.
 REGULATING URBAN SPRAWL

• In recent years, builders have been using a

new pattern called "cluster development"
more and more.

• In this type of development, high-density

housing units are concentrated on a part of
a parcel, and the remaining land (often 40–
50%) is used for open space that everyone
can use.
SMART GROWTH
It is the rise of urban planning in centers that are pretty close together to stop sprawl.
Smart growth plans are based on these basic ideas:
• Mix how the land is used.
• Benefit from compact building design.
• Make a variety of options and housing alternatives available.
• Design neighborhoods that people can walk around in.
• Encourage towns that are unique, attractive, and have a strong sense of place.
• Protect farmland, open space, natural beauty, and important environmental places.
• Strengthen and focus development on groups that are already there.
• Give people a choice of ways to get around.
• Make choices about development that are fair, predictable, and good for the
budget.
• Encourage the community and other important people to work together on
development choices.
SMART GROWTH
 ECO-CITY
An eco-city is
o a human habitation that prioritizes ecological health by
imitating the resilient structure and operation of natural
ecosystems and living organisms, which are self-
sustaining.
o an area that includes the people who live there and the
environmental effects they have.
o as a part of the ecosystems that make up its watershed,
bioregion, and, finally, the whole world.
o one part of the world, national, and regional economies.
The final goal of eco-cities is to get rid of all carbon
emissions, get all of their energy from renewable
sources, make the environment a part of the city,
lower poverty, organize cities so that people live
closer together, which makes them more efficient,
and improve health.

https://www.sustainthemag.com/culture/a-tale-of-two-eco-cities
 ECO-CITY

Eco-cities:
• centralize the population within a given
area.
• use renewable energy as much as
possible.
• use energy and matter efficiently.
• prevent pollution and reduce waste.
• recycle, reuse, and compost.
• protect and encourage biodiversity.
• promote urban gardens and farmers
markets.
https://www.freepik.com/free-photos-vectors/eco-city/2
ECO-CITY

https://www.focusingfuture.com/eco-city/overview-of-eco-cities/
 SMART CITY

A smart city is a local government

that utilizes information and
communication technologies to
enhance operational effectiveness,
disseminate information to the
public, and enhance the quality of
government services and citizen
well-being.

https://aliga.sk/en/what-the-heck-is-a-smart-city/
SMART CITY
SMART MOBILITY
• These days, the most difficult environmental and social issues are managing the movement
of goods and individuals.
• Societies and economies rely on a vast and interconnected network of cars and
transportation networks.
• Approximately 25% of worldwide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are generated by the
movement of individuals and commodities.
SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

Key takeaways from world bank report Sustainable Mobility for the 21st
Century:

• By 2030, passenger traffic will exceed 80,000 billion passenger-kilometers -

a fifty percent increase—and freight volume will grow by 70 percent
globally.

• Globally, the number of vehicles on the road is expected to double by 2050.

• In fast-growing places like India, China, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast

Asia, billions of people will have higher lifestyle expectations, and new
mobility aspirations.
SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

• There is a strong association between transport activity and

economic development.
• There is also a need for sustainable mobility to reduce environmental
impacts.
• Four global goals for sustainable mobility (World Bank, 2017):
• equitable access;
• security and safety;
• efficiency; and
• pollution and climate-responsiveness
https://tnmt.com/infographics/carbon-emissions-by-transport-type/
SUSTAINABLE MOBILE

https://www.eltis.org/mobility-plans/sump-
concept
TOP 15 CITIES WITH BEST TRANSPORT FACILITIES

https://www.william-russell.com/blog/global-transport-
QUESTIONS

1. What is population explosion? What are the factors affecting population explosion?
What is TFR? What is the threshold of TFR that would halt the population growth?

2. What is mortality rate? What are the factors that affect mortality rate?

3. What is migration? How migration affects a country?

4. What is urbanization? What is sustainable urbanization? What are the challenges of

mega cities?

5. What is urban sprawl? What are the spatial pattern of cities?

6. What is a smart city? How smart cities help the growth of a country?

7. What is in Eco-City? How these cities are sustainable?