Unit-I: Paobability Page No.

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Intodudion, 3andom experiments ,Sarople space,

erents and alaebia of events. Definitions of
obability Conditional Poobability, laws of
addition "and maltiplicotior , ihdegerdent events,
theorem of total pobability Bayes theotem
and its applications
Experiment i An opexation which can pxodue
Some well defned gutcomes
called an expenment.
Randorm Expeximenti An expeximent inwhich
all possible outcornes are
khoub and the exat outcome Can not be
predicted inadvance is caled a random
expeTment
Sample Space : when we peaforro an expemmint
the set of all possible outomes
is called a samnple space and is dencted by S
Eox
For ey example : 0 for tocsing a calb, S= H,T
foy ollin a die, s= L,23, 4 5,6
Event i A subset of soamole space is called
ah eVent

ExbausBve Events A set of events is said to

be exhcustie if it incdudes
lall possible everts
Afor example in tossing aa coin there are two
exhaustve cases eithe head ox tal and thee
is no thid possibility
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*Mctualls exclucive events 1f the ocuTmeNce of

Ohe of he eents
pre cludes the OcCurrence of al others ther
Such a set of eents is said to be mutualq
exclusive

Equal ly likely eYe nts: Tf one of the events

Canhot be expected to
happen in the prefexence to another then Such
eyents ae said to be equally likels
For example, in ossing a coih,the coming of the
head ox the tail is equally likely
*Tndependent evets Events Aand B are said to
be independent if happenin
of Ahas nothina to do with the happening of BB
and vice -a- Nersa

LÆ he 0ccuenco of event Bis affected by

he occurrehe of eVent Athen such event
are dependent eyents
For example f two Cands ae draun successivels
fom a well shuffle pack of cards wthout
replacement thn te eNent of appearance ot
king at second daaw wL be certainly depehd
upon he resu+ of the firet doaus
Prmbabilityi Let A be an eent and S be
Samole space hus pnbability of
an erent Ais denatec by CA) and is auen by
PCA) =
n(s)
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xNote: c) (S)=)

A Notaions Tf A and B are any too eve nts

hen
ib Pobobility of happesing of eyents A 0r B is
denoted by p(AUB) o pcAB)
iD Pobabi lity of hauppeninq af both the events
Aand B s denoted bu pCAnE) or pCAB)
ci) A ox A is the eyent not A and PlA)= pCA)
A-B is the event A but not B
V)Event A inmplies B is expressed as ACB
i)Events Aand B ae mudualli exclusive is
express ed as ANB=

heorems on Probalbiliti
cObddition Law of Paoloaility theore) of total
Paobalbiliy
Lf A and B any tuwo events hen

Tf the events AB ane muctually exclusive

then PCANB)=0 amd pcAVB)= p (A)+ pe)

Similasly, if the eventsA, Bandc are mudually

lexclusive then
AVBUc)= P(A)+ PCB)+ pC)
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lan parsti ular, if he events AAe,ba A

are mutually exclusivethen

*Condtional Pobability: If Aand B oare tauo

events in aSample
Space S and p(A)+0, then the pnobability of B
laftex 4tho eyent A has occuned is called Conditianal
pabality of B qiven A and it is denoted y

(2)heoTÜM of Compound obability

T Tf Aand B be teo eNents in a sample cpace G.S.
such thadt pA)opCB)+0 then
(a) pAnB)= pIA) PBlA)

PCA)
wheme B\A meqns ccusrence of
Gf event B
suiect to the condition that A has already
occye d

se independent eyents then

RCB)
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(3) Baye's Theoshmi 1f AAe An are mutualls.

exclusie and exhautie eVente
in a Sample spaco s such that pA;)>o fox
Ë-1,2,3,nand E is any event wih
p(E)>ohn
PCA;|E)= PAj) P(E|A)

ExTha ee coins are tossed simultaneOusly Eind the

poobabil ity of qetng cù at least z hiads
u at most head qnd
ii exactly 2 hecad.
Solh.
Sample space (s) = HHH, HHT, HTH,THH, HTI,
THT, TÊHL TIT

hls)=&
cis Let Abe an event 6fqeting at least

A HHH, HT HTH THH

PCA)= hCA)
A)
n(s) 2

the poobailits of gething at leat 2 head

is
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io Let pB be an eent bf aettna at most 2 hoads

B= HHT, HTH , THH, HTI, THT,TTH, TIT

7
h(s)
The pmbability cf qetting at mot 2 hoads
/s

ii) Let c be an event of qettinq exactly 2

hoads

HHT, HTH,THH}
hlc)=3
.pcc) nc) 3 P(c)= 3

he pabalbi lity of qetting exadly tkee2 heacs

Ex)A hooo is made wih o dice Find he

paobability ot qetting a se
L) lo poimts) at least lo ponts dnd
CiD at niost lo poin ts
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So|n.
Sample space (s)-f( , l2),,3l,CLy4)I,s), (4,),
(2), e2),(213),(224 ), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,0,(3,29, (3,3),(3,4),(3,5), (3,),
(4), (4,2),(43),(44) 45), 46),
S), (5,2),(5,3), (5,4) 5,5) (G)
(6,),(G,9, (63),(641 (S5),(G6)2
n(s)36
i Let A be an event of qetting a score of lo poiht
. Af (4r6) (55), (6,4)?
. hCA)= 3

p(A)= hcA) 3 =
PCA) =
n(s) 36 |2
The pobability of qettiny a stoe of ad
lo points isL
|2

) Let Bbe an event of getting a SC0e

Gf at lect io points
B=4,6), (s,5), 6,6), 6,4) (C,s),(6, 6)

plB)= n(e)
h(s) 36
The poobability of qetdin a score cf at
least Io pom
Cii) Let C be am event of qettng ascoTe o
at most lo points
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' hcc)= 33

bs) 36 |2

The ponbabi lity of getting a scooe of at

most |o poindts is
|2

Ex.DA thow is made wih t0o dice , Find dhe

pxDbability that i) dhe sum is 1 ox less
i the sum i a pertect satuare
Ex OA baq conteins 6 whide black balls Two
balls ane daun at gandong Find the piobakilíty
hat they are of Same colour
Soln. Total balls in a baq
nts)= Number of ways of dauing 2 balls
out of lo bolls
to
28 (UX 2)8!
nts)=4s
Let A be an eent of two bclls of Same colour
6
2! 4 21 21

:hA)=2
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PA)= h(A) 2|

n(s) y5 15

15
Hence he pobability that they are of same
15
Ex A ball is drawn ct andom fp fxom aa box
Corhainin4 6 red balls 4 white ballsand s blue
balls. Deemine the panlsalai lity that it i
a) ed (b) hitb white (c) bluie (d) not ed

ExQTwo card are drawn fom a well shuffle

pack of G2 Cards. ind the probability that
Ahey one both kings it ciothe first cod dzaDn
s replotad, ci) ixst Card daawh is not
eplacecl
So
Let event
A be an event f king on firct daaw
ond Ag be an euent of king on second daau)
AHa eUent of
be an event King at both daaus
) First CAgd doawn is replaced
1F fixst cad drawn is ehlaed before he
second draon then A and' Ag aN indepenclet
indepedent

To find pcA cnd p(Aa)

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PCA,)= n(A)
n(s)
and

h(s) G 3

Gg
Henu e pnbabil ty thad hey ase hoth kinqs

n irt cad dgawn is not eplaced

In this cae deçendont
2
To ind P(A) amd plAlA)
4
n(s)
TÊ fixst daaon îs kinq ten for secrd
3 ings aoe left to be chosep out of
51 cads
34 3
5l
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22}

22)

Hence the pnkabilits that they are both

Ikinas if fixt cad dsaun is not aeplausd
224

Ex. Fpm a deck of 52Cards two cards

dxawn at gandom. find the pzobabi lity that
i) boh are heats
ii) One is a heat and one is a diamond.
ExOGiven p(A) = e(3)= and p(AUB) =
Evauate i)
and (iv) PCAB)
Giver hat pCA)=+ cB]= and p(AUB]=
) To find plANB)
Sinte pCAUB) = pCA) +PCB) pCANa)

.pCANe) = +
PCANB) 3+4- 6
|2 |2

PLAOB)=
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i)To find plA\B)

3
PCB) |2

(ii) To find PcB|A)

pCAOB)(
pCBIA)= PCB0A) - pANB)
P(A) PCA)

PCB|A)=

i) To findP CAB)
PCA!= P(A0B)

'.PCAle!)= PCA) - PCAAe)

| - PCB)

PCALa)=

\PCAe)=|
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PCO)= and pAUB)=3

2. 4
Evaluade ) P(A0B) ç) p(AB) G) pB|A)
andciv) P(BA)

Ex (0) Apaublem on compuder nadhematics is.

to the three students A, B and C
C whase chances
of solving it are t and t ecpectively
klhat is the probability that the paoblem will
be solved
Gineh hat pCA) PB)= 4
and Ptci=
To find the probability that the penblena
will be solved
Tbe pro balility that Paobabil1ty that
the problen il be the panhl¿na is
Solved unsolned
To fnd the
wsoled
qasbability hat the peohln ir

Probability that the PCAOB'nc

\problerm is unsoled
A) 4haee studouts solves the pooblem
independend ly
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Paobability that the PC)- P(B')pc')

\poblenm is unsolved
= ((-PCA)(1- PCB))- PC))
-+))-)
-3
32

fThe panbabilty thad the -3

32
paoblem will be solved
29
32
thot
Hence the pobability 2g the problem
32

Ex.D A can hit the taaet tarqet | out of 4

imes Bcan hit th o target 2 out of 3 times
c can hit the target 3out of time fnd the
pnbability of at ast two hit the target.
Ans p(at least two hit the terget)=