Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(OUPI).
TRAINING MANUAL ON
February, 2023
Finfinne, Ethiopia
Table of Contents
1. Introduction..........................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Background..................................................................................................................................1
1.2 Demography.................................................................................................................................1
1.3 Social issues- (Education, health, housing and Social Problems)............................................1
1.4 Objective of the study..................................................................................................................2
1.4.2 Specific objectives:...............................................................................................................2
1.5 Scope of the study.........................................................................................................................2
1.6 Methodology of the study............................................................................................................2
1.6.1. Source of Data......................................................................................................................2
1.6.2. Method of data collection....................................................................................................3
1.6.3. Method of Analysis...............................................................................................................3
1.7 The three Phases of the study.....................................................................................................3
1.7.1. Phase I Preparatory Works/Time required: one weeks/..................................................3
1.7.2. Phase II-Data Collection/Time required: Three weeks/...................................................8
1.7.3. PHASE III – Data Analysis/Time: Four weeks/................................................................8
1.7.2 Method of Data Analysis.....................................................................................................9
2 Methods Analysis of Demographic aspects........................................................................................9
2.1 PHASE I -Activity 1: Data Analysis...........................................................................................9
2.1.2 Population Analysis..............................................................................................................9
2.1.3 Population Dynamics.........................................................................................................11
2.1.4 Educational Services..........................................................................................................13
2.1.5 Identified Problems and Planning Issues.........................................................................14
2.1.6 Health services....................................................................................................................14
2.1.7 Housing...............................................................................................................................15
2.1.8 Other Services....................................................................................................................15
2.1.9 Social Problems..................................................................................................................16
3 Population projection........................................................................................................................16
3.1 Variants of Population Projection............................................................................................20
3.2 Preparation of Inputs and Strategies.......................................................................................21
3.3 Preparation of Strategies...........................................................................................................22
3.4 Demonstrative exercises............................................................................................................22
4 REFERENCE.....................................................................................................................................23
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
When we plan, it is for the people, and the people are the reference for the planning, Thus,
Planning is mainly meant to solve the physical, spatial and socio-economic problems of the
people, Thus, urban land use and other resources ought to be used in equitable, economical and
faire way and in proportion to the people where this could be achieved only through planning.
Hence, Social Services rendered to the residents must be linked to the number of populations,
Therefore, land use planning, it seeks detail study of the population in the town/city.
To sum up, Urban Planning is mainly for the Quality of Life, well managed townies or cities are
for the Good Quality of Life and a Good way of Living for the people.
1.2 Demography
Demography refers to is statistical study of populations, especially human begins, size and
density, growth, distribution, migration and vital statistics, and the effect of all these on social
and economic conditions. Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and
dynamics of populations, it can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria, such as
education, religion, age, sex, ethnicity and others. Elements: Size of population, Composition,
Distribution, stability or change; becomes the subject of political debates in many developed
countries; Factors influencing population - Fertility (births), Mortality (deaths) and Migration.
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1.4 Objective of the study
The overall objective of the study is to assess the demography and the social service facility in
the town/city.
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the primary data. Different similar projects were also reviewed to gain the experience at
international and national level. In addition to the above-mentioned data sources for study has
also make use of town base map to analyze the existing and distribution of social service
institutions in the town.
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To ensure that the data collection incorporates all relevant types of data required for the
analysis phase.
To acquire reliable data from the relevant sources.
To avoid redundancy in collection of data by identifying those data which are available in
the office.
Out put
Data collection formats
List of those organizations from which data would be collected.
Relevant data collected from materials that are available in the office / library.
1. Demographic aspects
A. Population characteristics
population size;
Age composition;
Sex composition;
Ethnic composition;
Religious composition;
B. Population dynamics
2. Educational services
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Distribution of students by age and sex,
3. Health Services
Origin of patients,
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4. Housing
Availability of stadium,
Availability of Libraries,
Availability of cemetery for each religious institution and for the municipality,
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Social Problems:
Juvenile delinquency,
Beggary,
Unemployment,
Disability,
Secondary Data
CSA reports
Municipalities
Urban Development Bureau
Primary Data
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1.7.1.2. Task 2: Collection of data which are available in the office
o Activity 1: Preparation of data collection format
Purpose
To acquire data based on which the assessment could be carried out
Out put
Data related to social development issues collected from the offices in the town for which
the study is to be carried out.
Abstraction of significant facts from the collected mass of numerical data in order to
arrive at informed decision,
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Preparation of inputs for the proposed land use plan, and
Proposing alternative strategies by which identified problems could be solved.
Out put
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2 Methods Analysis of Demographic aspects
Sex Composition = (M & F have different biological, social, and cultural functions and
roles), used for various socio-economic analysis.
National sex ratios at birth - 100 – 105 males per 100 females.
National general sex ratios - 95 – 100 males per 100 females. This is normal variation from the
range implies losses from wars, epidemics and migration.
B. Age Composition: -The age structure of a population affects a nation's key socio-
economic issues.
Age group
0-14
15-64
65+
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Old Population (65 and above) <3% >10%
C. Dependency Ratio
Analyze the trend and compare the figures with the regional, national and international
perspectives, comparing with sub-Saharan countries would be more feasible indicative for this
purpose. then, with other Cities and Towns.
• Religion. group = Religious composition essential for determining the No and type of
worship places and cemeteries.
• Information on Ethnic distribution of the population for various purposes, it could help us
to determine the media of instruction in schools in the locality where the planning is
undergoing.
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I. Fertility Rate
Example, based on the 2007, CBR for Ethiopia at country level is 36.9
• TFR = number of children a woman is likely to have during her reproductive period.
Example, based on the CSA (2005). Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey; CDR at country
level is 10.8 (per 1000)
Example, based on the CSA (2005). Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey; IMR at country
level is 77 (per 1000)
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A. Migration at town/city level
• Change in population size, composition, and distribution over time is the function of
migration, besides fertility and mortality.
• Inward migration and out ward migration to balance the two movements-to show
influence area
• In the absence of vital registration census data are the main source of information for this
purpose.
The main point to be considered during analysis of existing conditions would be as follows:
A. Coverage
B. Efficiency
Repetition Rate
Dropout Rate
C. Quality
D. Trend of enrollment
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Proportion of students from out of the town
Facilities and Physical condition of schools
Problems related to educational service
Future requirements of educational services
In analyzing the existing school system, first review the education Policy (ESDP) against the
access, enrolment, gender disparity, and the MDG targets in order to analyze and provide sound
explanations, compare the data with the previous documented data information, compare it with
the National, Regional and with some other towns/cities, disaggregate it by sex analyzing it with
previous years, check whether the GER is declining/increasing.
Coverage
Quality
Efficiency
Facilities
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The major cause of morbidity and mortality,
Comparison,
Proportion of patients by origin, and
Future requirements of health institutions.
2.1.7 Housing
Housing which is one of the basic needs of human being is the major critical problem of urban
center in the country
The availability,
Adequacy,
Distribution of the facilities,
Explain the consequence or impact of unavailability of these facilities on the urban youth,
Recommend the type of facilities that are required currently as well as during the
planning period;
Assess if
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There is demand for worship places,
Every religious group has cemetery of its own,
The existing cemeteries can adequately serve till the end of the planning period, and
The existing cemeteries are compatible with the nearby functions.
3 Population projection
The Exponential Equation
Pt. = P0 ert
Where
Pt = Population after ‘t’ years
r = Growth rate
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GR= 1/t (ln Pt/Po)
• To project population size into the future, we need to estimate the growth rate;
• To estimate population growth rate, there should be at least two observations at two
different periods;
= ln (P1994 / P1984)
= 1/ t x ln (P1994 / P1984)
St 1 - P1994 / P1984
St 2 - ln (P1994 / P1984)
Example on estimation of GR
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St 2 - ln (P1994 / P1984) = ln 2.5 = 0.916
r = 9.61 %
period = t x r
etr = ert
Pt = P0 ert
Given r = 4%
t = 10 year
Pt = P2012 =?
Pt = Poe r x t
P2012 = P2002e r x t
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St 3: Take the exponential… = e.4 = 1.49 = erxt
P2012 = 14,900
• Determining Future Growth Rates require examination of past trend on the population
growth rate.
• To examine the Past Trend of the Growth Rate, there should be at least Three Observation
on the Population size at three different period.
• If the Trend is an Increasing one, the Future Growth Rate is assumed to Increase by the
extent the rates were Increasing.
• Similarly, if the Trend is a Decreasing one, the Future Growth Rate is assumed to
Decrease by the extent the rates were Decreasing.
• On the other hand, if the Rates have remained constant, the Future Growth Rate will be
assumed to remain constant.
P1979 = 10,000
3%
P1984 = 11,618
5%
P1989 = 14,917
7%
P1994 = 21,168
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9%
P1999 = 33,198
P2004 = ? r =?,
r = 11% = 0.11
= 57,540
• For instance, if based on the past trend, future growth rate is assumed to be 4.5 %, then
the growth rates under the three variants could be taken as:
• Population projection under the medium variant is applied for the purpose of estimating
future demand of housing and social services in order to use expansion areas effectively;
• whereas the high variant is used provided that there is expansion area abundantly and the
expansion does not result in displacement of the surrounding farmers.
Niger = 3.8
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Chad = 3.6
Uganda = 3.5
Greece = - 0.0
Poland = -0.0
Germany = - 0.2
Japan = - 0.2
• Ethiopia’s Growth Rate is 2.6 (CSA, 2007) which is equivalent to Africa’s Average.
Education:
Number and type of educational institutions that will be required additionally during the
planning period.
Health:
Number and type of health institutions that will be required additionally during the
planning period.
Housing:
Number of housing units, which are required presently as well as during the planning
period.
Social Problems:
Number of Social welfare services, orphanages, rehabilitation centers, recreational
facilities for elders, etc
Recreational facilities and cultural centers:
• The type of sport and recreational activities, which are required currently
as well as during the planning period.
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• In addition to this, based on the existing situation, cultural centers,
museum, public library, city hall, etc could be proposed.
Religious centers & cemeteries:
• Religious groups that need worship places and number of worship places
• Total size of land that will be required for cemetery
Let’s assume the /2006 E.C/ population size of a town to be close to 176,497. The total number
households and housing units is also about 35,450 and 34,500, respectively. Moreover, the
population size of the town back in 1986, 1991, and 2001 E.C is considered to be 70, 525,
95,675,123,464 and 151,355, respectively.
Among the social services rendered in the town, the educational service in the town is being
provided by 3 kindergartens, 10 primary schools and 4 senior secondary schools, whereas the
existing number of enrollment in the schools being 2,051 for KG,17,575 primary school, and
9,000 senior secondary school. The current school age population for kinder gardens, primary
schools and senior secondary schools is estimated to be 9, 500, 30, 450, and 17,750, respectively.
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Moreover, currently there are two health centers which are rendering health service for the
population of the town and the surrounding rural area. With these above assumptions, work out
the following exercises.
1. Estimate the trend of population Growth rate (GR) the town experienced during 1986-
2006.
2. Based on the observed trend in the population size of the town estimate the Growth Rate
(GR) at which the population is expected to grow in the future.
3. Having estimated the Growth Rate (GR) at which the population size will grow into the
future project the current population size to year 2016 E.C.
4. On the basis of the projected population and assuming that the existing participation
rate(PR) for kinder gardens, primary schools and senior secondary will grow to 40,85,75
percent respectively, estimate additional requirements for schools (kinder gardens,
primary schools and senior secondary schools) and health centers. When estimating
future school age population, assume the age structure of the town will remain constant.
5. Based on the current average household and assuming average household size and
household, housing unit rations of the town will remain constant during the planning
period , estimate the additional number of housing units ratios of the town will remain
during the planning period, estimate the additional number of housing units which will be
required by the end of 2016 E.C.
4 REFERENCE
5. Land use Planning Standards for structure plan preparation, OUPI, 2012
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7. Ministry of youth and sport of Ethiopia.
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