Module 1: Part 5

CPM and PERT

S. Madeh Piryonesi, PhD

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Summary
• Critical Path Method (CPM)
o Early start/finish
o Late start/finish
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
o Probabilistic scheduling
 Steps for Scheduling
Work
List of Activity
Breakdown Network
Activities Dependencies
Structure

Activity
1
Activity
2

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Critical Path Method (CPM)
• Finds the most critical path or the earliest time
• Finds the activities with float or flexibility
TF= 4 days EF
ES D= 9 days LS LF

May 19 May 31 Time (days)

• TF= total float

• ES= early start
• LF=late finish TF= LF – EF = LS –ES
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 CPM Example

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CPM Example: Network Creation

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 CPM Example: Network Creation

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 CPM Example: Forward Pass

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 CPM Example: Forward Pass

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 CPM Example: Forward Pass

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 CPM Example: Forward Pass

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 CPM Example: Forward Pass

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 CPM Example: Forward Pass

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 CPM Example: Backward Pass

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 CPM Example: Backward Pass

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 CPM Example: Backward Pass

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 CPM Example: Backward Pass

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 CPM Example: Backward Pass

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 CPM Example: Backward Pass

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 CPM Example: Finding Critical Path
• Activities with a float of 0 are critical
• Total float (TF) is the maximum delay that does
not delay the successor activities

TF= LF – EF = LS –ES

• LF= Late Finish, LS: Late Start

• EF= Early Finish, ES= Early Start
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 CPM: Finding the Critical Path

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 Review of the Steps

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 Example 2 for CPM
• Another example
• Solve this one by yourself. Is the critical path on A-B-C-D-E?
Activity Duration Predecessor

A 10 -
B 20 A
C 5 B
D 10 C
E 20 D, H, G
F 15 A
G 5 F, C
H
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15 A
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 Activity Duration
• What does it mean when one says an activity will take 10 days?
• Is activity duration probabilistic?
• Can we use probabilistic duration
for planning?

10 days

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Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT)
• The goal of Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
is to track the progress of a project and show the probability of
completion that project on time
• The main difference between PERT and CPM is related to the
expression of duration:
• CPM
• Defines activities deterministically
• As a single-value estimate,
• PERT
• Activity duration is a random variable
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Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT)
• Statistical distribution of activity durations falls on a beta
probability distribution curve
• Beta distribution is described by its mean and standard
deviation, which are calculated from three estimates of activity
duration
• Most likely (M). It is based on the realistic expectations of
resources availability and productivity, and their likely to be
assigned
• Optimistic (O). It is based on a best-case scenario of what is
described in the most likely estimate
• Pessimistic
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(P). S. Madeh Piryonesi, Project Management 26
 PERT: Duration Estimation
• Most likely (M). It is based on the realistic expectations of resources
availability and productivity, and their likely to be assigned
• Optimistic (O). It is based on a best-case scenario of what is
described in the most likely estimate
• Pessimistic (P). The activity duration is based on a worst-case scenario
of what is described in the most likely estimate (the longest expected
duration)

O M P
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 PERT: Duration Estimation
• Tij: mean Sij: standard deviation of activity ij

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 PERT
Assuming that we have the distribution of all activities how should we
estimate the distribution of project duration?

Central Limit Theorem

(CLT)

What about multiplication?

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 PERT: Project Duration

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 PERT: Project Duration

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 PERT: Project Duration

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PERT: Example
PERT: Example
PERT: Example
PERT: Example

Z=(X-T)/S
=(32-30)/1.41= 1.41
 PERT: Example

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 PERT: Example

What is the target date of completing the project by

98% probability?

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