Professional Documents
Culture Documents
LUIGI CURINI
Corruption, Ideology, and Populism
Luigi Curini
Corruption, Ideology,
and Populism
The Rise of Valence Political Campaigning
Luigi Curini
Department of Social and Political Sciences
The University of Milan
Milan, Italy
5 What Implications? 147
References 183
Index 205
v
List of Figures
vii
viii List of Figures
xi
xii List of Tables
A large body of analysis published in recent decades has shown that politi-
cal campaigns are important (Farrell and Schmitt-Beck 2002; Sides 2007).
This is not surprising: political campaigns have the power to arouse atten-
tion, shape and reframe ideas, activate citizens, and, eventually, place con-
testants ahead in the electoral race (Nai and Walter 2015). But campaigns
are also about positioning and highlighting issues on the political agenda.
Political corruption, as will be discussed at length throughout this book,
is one of the issues that parties can put forward during such electoral
events. Broadly defined as the use of political power for illegal personal
gains, corruption is a phenomenon that has been frequently investigated
in the literature. Many researchers have attributed it to various causes.
Most studies show, for example, that established democracies are greatly
affected by political corruption, but they are so to a lesser extent than non-
or proto-democratic states, while rules and traditions matter in determin-
ing the level of political corruption. However, these studies do not identify
the conditions under which political corruption can be expected to play
a significant role in political confrontation. Do parties talk about corrup-
tion only as a by-product of occasional exogenous factors (i.e. scandals
reported in the press) or are they induced to do so by systemic regularities?
And what are the broad consequences?
These are the research questions addressed by the present book. To
deal with them, I shall link political corruption to the growing literature
on valence issues (Stokes 1963), given that political corruption and hon-
esty are possibly the most prominent examples of what are commonly
understood to be non-policy valence issues (Stokes 1992) (Chap. 1).
xiii
xiv INTRODUCTION
Finally, what is true for a particular non-policy valence issue like corrup-
tion applies in principle to any other non-policy valence issue, as will be
discussed below.
In what follows, the hypothesis of an inverse relationship between the
distance of a party from its ideologically adjacent competitors (i.e. its
‘neighbours’) and its incentive to campaign on political corruption will
be tested in a variety of contexts (ranging from a longitudinal case study
centred on Italy to a comparative study focused on both national and
European elections) while drawing on various sources of data (such as leg-
islative speeches, party manifestoes, and social media tweets). This will be
done by following an incremental pathway that adds a layer of complexity
in each successive chapter compared to the previous one.
In the final chapter (Chap. 5), the general consequences of the previous
findings will be discussed by connecting them to three main topics. First,
it will be shown how these results can be directly related to the litera-
ture on political (and electoral) accountability. Second, the model based
on ideological considerations will be extended to illustrate how it helps
explain the anti-elite rhetoric of parties generally connected to what can be
identified as a ‘populist strategy’. Third, and finally, the theoretical points
discussed will be related to well-established theorizing on parties and party
systems, in particular with the cartel party theory. The book will finish
by highlighting an unfortunate trade-off: while a long list of works have
thoroughly discussed the risks of a wide ideological polarization for the
everyday life of a polity, the possible negative externalities of an extreme
valence campaign generated by a short ideological distance among parties
have been generally underestimated. However, it will be argued, this is an
important issue for contemporary democracies.
This book would have been impossible to write without my frequent
discussions with Paolo Martelli over the years. What I have learnt about the
‘power of valence issues’ is entirely due to his guidance. I have discussed
earlier versions of some of the chapters of this book at several conferences
and seminars: among others, the annual meeting of the Italian Political
Science Association (SISP), Rome, September 2009; the congress of the
European Political Science Association (EPSA), Berlin, June 2012; the
New Developments in Modeling Party Competition Conference, Berlin,
July 2012; GLOPE2 Tuesday Seminars, Waseda University (Tokyo), 2012
and 2013; and the 8th ECPR General Conference, Glasgow, September
2014. I acknowledge all the helpful comments made by seminars’ partici-
pants and in particular by Luca Verzichelli, Willy Jou, Susumu Shikano,
xvi INTRODUCTION
Róbert Veszteg, and Aiji Tanaka. I am grateful to Samuel Merrill III for
some very useful suggestions with respect to the theoretical model pre-
sented in Chap. 3. Andrea Ceron and Stefano Iacus have been extremely
helpful for several reasons, just too many to count them. The month that
I spent in the United States in the summer of 2016 for the International
Visiting Leadership Program, as well as the two following months at
Waseda University in Tokyo, helped me greatly in drafting the present
book. I thank the US Department of State and the US Consulate of Milan
for the former opportunity, and the support (and the friendship) of Airo
Hino for the latter. Finally, my special thanks go to my parents (Carla and
Germano) as well as to my family: Masha, Davide, and Alice were just
fantastic during the months I spent with my laptop rather than with them.
They showed a lot of patience to me. This book is dedicated to them.
I also acknowledge the following sources of financial support: the
Italian Ministry for Research and Higher Education, Prin 2007, prot.
2007 scrwt4, and Prin 2009, prot. 2009 TPW4NL_002; the Japan Society
for the Promotion of Science, grant numbers S-09131 and S-12123; the
Waseda Institute for Advanced Study (WIAS) fellowship, Tokyo, 2014; and
the Global COE (Center of Excellence) Program for Political Economy
of Institutional Construction (GLOPE II) (Waseda University) fellowship
(both in 2009 and 2011).
All data and scripts to replicate the analyses reported in each chapter
of the present book are available online at: http://www.luigicurini.com/
scientific-publications.html.
References
This chapter links the literature on political corruption with that on valence
issues. It will discuss how the former literature has generally sought to
understand the consequences of political corruption, as well as the rea-
sons for its diffusion in different countries, while discarding (with few
exceptions) the factors that could explain why political actors may have an
incentive to campaign (in a stronger or weaker way) on political corrup-
tion issues. By doing so, the possibility of investigating the outcomes of
the choice to ‘invest in corruption’ is precluded. I will argue that looking
at political corruption using the framework provided by the valence issues
literature helps fill this gap.
In this regard, I will present the different interpretation of the concept
of valence issues first introduced into the literature by Stokes’s seminal
article (1963), focusing in particular on the distinction between non-
positional policy-based valence issues (e.g. issues such as reducing crime
or increasing economic growth) and non-policy-based ones (e.g. credibil-
ity, integrity) (Clark 2014). In contrast to positional policy issues, which
involve a clear conflict of interest among groups of electors (being in
favour of or against the welfare state, gay marriage, and so on), when deal-
ing with either policy or non-policy valence issues, voters hold identical
positions (preferring more to less or less to more, depending on the issue).
Corruption (honesty) is a typical example of a non-policy valence issue.
I will then highlight how the aforementioned types of valence issues,
together with positional policy issues, can be viewed and analysed
within a common theoretical framework that differentiates the possible
Fig. 1.1 Number of books and articles referring to corruption in either the text
or title per 100 books and articles on politics
1.1 THE GROWING INTEREST IN CORRUPTION 3
Scholar and a Jstor search query. The number of books and articles refer-
ring to corruption among all political science publications grown linearly
over time, rising from 2% in the 1950s to 10.8% in the past 5 years (source:
Jstor).1 The same significant growth is found when focusing on the pro-
portion of books and articles with the word ‘corruption’ in their title
among all publications on politics: from 0.5% in the 1950s to 15% once
again in the last 5 years (source Google Scholar).2
This growing interest is not surprising: corruption directly impacts on
such important matters as fairness in the institutional and economic pro-
cess, political accountability, responsiveness, etc. According to well-known
definitions, corruption is ‘the misuse of public office for private gains’
(Treisman 2000: 399) or, also, ‘an act by (or with acquiescence of) a pub-
lic official’ that violates legal or social norms for private or particularist
gain (Gerring and Thacker 2004: 300). In both definitions, public officials
are the main actors, while the extent and type of corruption are not speci-
fied (Ecker et al. 2016). Moreover, political elites may be held accountable
not just for their own abuse of power and money but also for failing to
limit corrupt behaviour in general (Tavits 2007).
Della Porta and Vannucci’s (1997: 231–232) definition of corrup-
tion centres on another recurrent theme in the literature: the breach of a
principal-agent relationship. For Della Porta and Vannucci, political cor-
ruption involves a secret violation of a contract that, implicitly or explic-
itly, delegates responsibility and the exercise of discretionary power to an
agent (i.e. the politicians) who, against the interests or preferences of the
principal (i.e. the citizens), acts in favour of a third party, from which it
receives a reward.
The literature on corruption has mainly focused on two sub-topics.
The first concerns the consequences of corruption. A wide-ranging and
multi-disciplinary literature has shown that contexts which suffer from
higher levels of corruption are associated with, for example, poorer health
(Holmberg and Rothstein 2012) and environmental outcomes (Welsch
2004), lower economic development (Mauro 1995; Shleifer and Vishny
1993), and greater income inequality (Gupta et al. 2002). Moreover, it
has also been underlined that corruption is a problem that plagues both
developing and more economically developed regions such as Europe
(Charron et al. 2014).
The political consequences of corruption have also been well-
documented. Corruption undermines legitimacy in a variety of institutional
settings (Mishler and Rose 2001; Seligson 2002). In particular, corruption
destabilizes the democratic rules by favouring some groups—especially
4 1 POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND VALENCE ISSUES
Because the corruption issue is so important for its economic and polit-
ical consequences, it is no surprise that understanding the causes of the
phenomenon has garnered a great deal of recent scholarly attention as
well. Most analyses of the causes of corruption start from the presumption
that the abuse of public office for private gain stems from voters’ inability
to rein in their representatives. In the face of government malfeasance,
scholars ask whether and how political institutions (but also political cul-
ture and the level of economic development: see Lipset and Lenz 2000;
Montinola and Jackman 2002) affect it. Answers in the literature generally
agree that corruption is lowest where political institutions give voters the
ability to punish politicians who fail to perform according to expectations.
In regard to the already-discussed principal-agent perspective, researchers
often highlight the role and the importance of political competition (Alt
and Lassen 2003) as measured through the existence of partisan and insti-
tutional checks in limiting agents’ (i.e. politicians’) discretion to act on
their own behalf. However, given that with no reliable information about
whom to check and when, the ability to keep agents in check (and thereby
avoid a moral hazard problem) is hugely hampered; good government
requires also that those who would like to see corruption punished are in
a position to observe, report, or block undesirable behaviour (Brown et al.
2011). These elements—effective monitoring and institutional checks—
are in fact fundamental to well-designed principal-agent relationships
(Heller et al. 2016).
Montinola and Jackman (2002) and Charron and Lapuente (2010) have
looked at how the level of democracy affects this principal-agent problem.
Most studies show that established democracies are greatly affected by
political corruption, but they are so to a lesser extent than non- or proto-
democratic states, while also rules and traditions matter in determining the
level of political corruption. Chang (2005), Kunicova and Rose-Ackerman
(2005), and Chang and Golden (2006) examine how electoral rules affect
how political candidates can be held accountable to voters. Tavits (2007)
shows that the principle-agent relationship is tightened in the presence
of clear lines of responsibility for enacting anti-corruption policies. The
same happens if institutions such as parliaments, press freedom, and a free
economy are in place (Bohara et al. 2004; Gerring and Thacker 2004).
Finally, Andrews and Montinola (2004) suggest that increasing the total
number of veto players in a democracy makes collusion more difficult and
reduces actors’ capacity to collude to accept bribes, which in turn should
reduce corruption, at least in some given circumstances.4
6 1 POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND VALENCE ISSUES
.017
Emphasis on Corruption
.006
c ampaign are counted as politicisation of the issue (see Chaps. 2 and 3 for
more details on this aspect).
In the CMP dataset, electoral programmes are coded by content analy-
sis, i.e. by manually computing all occurrences of expressions with com-
municative meaning chosen among a predetermined list of topics. In other
words, the coding procedures used by CMP involve sorting all politically
meaningful expressions in each party’s manifesto into a group of categories
(welfare, defence, law and order, etc.), and then taking the percentages in
each category as a measure of the party’s priorities (Budge et al. 2001).
Among these categories, ‘political corruption’ (per304 to use the CMP
denomination) explicitly includes all references to the need to eliminate cor-
ruption and associated abuse in political and public life. Accordingly, only
campaigns carried forward by parties with respect to ‘grand corruption’—
that is, corruption involving politicians and political parties—are anal-
ysed. CMP data do not enable a distinction to be drawn between ‘grand’
and ‘petty’ bureaucratic corruption cases, so that this difference, possibly
important in some cases, is inevitably overlooked in the analysis.
8 1 POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND VALENCE ISSUES
extent over time, the significant variance of attention to that issue remains
quite substantial throughout the time period considered, meaning that
there are always some parties that tend to talk substantially more (or
substantially less) about corruption than the average. This prompts the
following question: given the considerable variance in the emphasis on
corruption just observed, under what conditions is the electoral strategy
of politicizing corruption more easily employed? For example, do parties
talk about corruption as a by-product of contextual exogenous factors
(such as a higher level of corruption in a given country)?
To investigate this possibility further, I need a measure able to estimate
the severity of corruption in each country over time. Until the 1990s,
empirical research in the field of corruption consisted primarily of case
studies. Since then, however, a number of corruption indices have been
developed by different sources and institutions. They have transformed
the study of corruption and enabled social scientists to test a num-
ber of hypotheses on both its causes and its consequences. One of the
most commonly used indicators of political corruption is Transparency
International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI).
This index represents a ‘poll of polls’ constructed by a team of research-
ers at Göttingen University using information from a number of individual
surveys of businesspersons or local populations of the relevant countries,
as well as several ratings by economic risk analysts and country experts.7
It has been produced annually since 1995, with country coverage varying
as available data sources have changed: for the 2015 index, for example,
167 countries were rated.8 The rankings from each of these sources are
standardized and then averaged to derive a composite country rating out
of 10. Averaging should reduce the impact of idiosyncratic coding by indi-
vidual ratings of organizations. The CPI is generally considered the most
valid and reliable cross-national estimate of corruption, and it is there-
fore widely used in comparative studies (see Treisman 2000; Krause and
Mendez 2009; Choi and Woo 2010).9
In this regard, Fig. 1.3 contrasts the average emphasis on
CORRUPTION by parties running in the elections held from 1995 to
2015 with the corresponding country-CPI score in that same electoral
year (note that only the pool of democracies included in the CMP dataset
have been considered in this comparison). For example, in the case of the
Irish election held in June 1997, I consider the Irish CPI score in 1997.
As discussed, the CPI scale ranges between a maximum score (10), which
corresponds to low corruption levels, and a minimum score (0) indicating
10 1 POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND VALENCE ISSUES
.13
Japan 1996
.1
Emphasis on Corruption
Canada 2006
.05
Poland 2005
0
2 4 6 8 10
CPI
Country year-election Linear fit
Fig. 1.3 Contrasting the CPI index with CORRUPTION across country-year
elections
high levels of corruption. The overall correlation between the two mea-
sures is significant but not impressively strong: −.48, i.e. as the level of
corruption in a given country-year is perceived to decrease according to
the CPI, so does CORRUPTION. One of the reasons for this limited cor-
relation is the different degree of ‘stickiness’ of the two variables. The CPI
is a measure relative stable over time in each country, contrary to what
happens with the emphasis on corruption by parties.10 For example, in the
case of the CPI, the intra-class correlation in the data (a measure stating
how much of the total variation in the CPI variable can be explained solely
by differences between countries) is .94. Hence almost 94% of the entire
variance in the CPI is explained by differences between countries alone. By
contrast, the intra-class correlation in the case of CORRUPION is .29. In
this case, in other words, more than 70% of the total variance in the vari-
able under scrutiny is due to overtime dynamics within the same country,
rather than simply to differences across countries.11
It therefore appears difficult to relate something that is relatively stable
within a country (the severity of corruption in each single country-year as
captured by the CPI) with the large variation over time within the same
1.2 POLITICIZING CORRUPTION 11
‘valence issues’, defined as ‘those that merely involve the linking of the
parties with some condition that is positively or negatively valued by the
electorate’. Valence issues are those where there is (virtually) no disagree-
ment, on which parties ‘are differentiated not by what they advocate but
by the degree to which they are linked in the public’s mind with condi-
tions or goals or symbols of which almost everyone approves or disap-
proves’ (Stokes 1992: 143). In the language of spatial models, valence
issues are ones with very widely shared ‘ideal points’: everyone has the
same preference with respect to them (Evans and Chzhen 2016; Whiteley
et al. 2016). Figure 1.4 gives a graphical representation of the distinc-
tion. The figure reports two possible examples of voters’ distribution with
respect to (positional) policy issues (unimodal or bimodal), together with
the expected distribution for a ‘valence’ issue, that is, an issue that is uni-
formly liked or disliked among the electorate, as opposed to a ‘position
issue’ on which opinion is divided.
Valence issues can be either policy-based or non-policy-based. For
example, increasing economic growth is a classic non-positional policy-
based valence issue since virtually everyone wants vigorous, sustainable
.4
.3
Density
.2
.1
0
Fig. 1.4 Policy vs. valence issues in terms of voters’ distribution of preferences
with respect to such issues
14 1 POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND VALENCE ISSUES
YES NO
can find it profitable to underline other parties’ alleged value failures, such
as economic incompetence, weakness against crime or terrorism, or, and
most notably for this book, corruption.
I maintain, therefore, that moves of this kind to collect votes by
exploiting the universal appeal of shared values can be frequent in party
competition or during political confrontations. This makes it possible to
develop a specific typology of campaigning issues that summarizes what
has been discussed thus far by means of two distinct analytic dimensions
(see Table 1.1).
The first dimension specifies that electors assess not only parties’ posi-
tions in policy space supporting voters’ various and differing interests but
also parties’ reputations concerning commonly shared values or policy
(i.e. non-policy as well as policy-based valence issues). Valence issues are
not, however, the same as non-policy issues, because there exist non-
policy issues that are not valence issues. Enelow and Hinich (1982) rec-
ognise this by introducing the concept of ‘ascriptive issues’, which are
those of the party’s characteristics that all electors describe in the same
way (i.e. perceive as objective attributes) but judge differently. Ascriptive
characteristics include all of a party’s references to its origin and history,
as well as to its position in respect to social cleavages. Regarding candi-
date’s characteristic, personal elements such as gender or age and social
characteristics like ethnic belonging or economic well-being all belong to
this category of qualities that cannot be either modified or hidden, but
which some electors may appreciate and some may not (see Enelow and
Hinich 1982, 1984).14 Interestingly, ascriptive issues share with positional
policy issues the same kind of electors’ assessments, because they are both
18 1 POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND VALENCE ISSUES
Notes
1. The research string used within the Jstor.org database has been the following
one: (corruption) AND la:(eng OR en) AND disc:(politicalscience-discipline).
2. The number of articles in the Google Scholar database referring to corrup-
tion in their title was found by using the following search string: allintitle:
corruption. The number of articles on politics was obtained by using the
following search string: allintitle: politic OR politics OR political OR policy.
22 1 POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND VALENCE ISSUES
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REFERENCES 27
This chapter presents the theoretical model employed to identify the rela-
tionship between ideological positions and the incentives of a party to
campaign on political corruption. The starting point is the recognition
that valence campaigning, as happens for all the campaigning moves that
a party can decide to adopt (see Table 1.1), is costly because financial
and human resources have to be spent on it to point out the party’s own
merits or to show the opponent’s failures on shared values. Then, as elec-
tions approach and a comprehensive message must to be brought to the
electors’ attention, the party’s limited resources for valence campaigning
have to be carefully allocated in order to draw the most fruitful results
from them. This decision may depend on a wide range of factors tied to
the characteristics of the current election. However, it can be approached
in a systematic way if general conditions can be envisaged that regularly
induce parties to emphasize or overlook valence campaigning in relation
to whether it is more or less promising in terms of votes.
My research question is therefore as follows: are there spatial condi-
tions that may induce parties to campaign on valence issues with more or
less intensity? And more precisely, to anticipate the key component of the
proposed model, are there relative party positions in the ideological space
that may increase or reduce their incentives to emphasize campaigning on
corruption?
In this regard, I focus on the consequences that a change in the rela-
tive ideological locations of parties can have on a party’s decision to adopt
a valence campaign based on political corruption in a two-party system.