Machine Learning for Business

Analytics: Concepts, Techniques and

Applications with JMP Pro, 2nd Edition
Galit Shmueli
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MACHINE LEARNING FOR

BUSINESS ANALYTICS
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MACHINE LEARNING FOR

BUSINESS ANALYTICS
Concepts, Techniques, and
Applications with JMP Pro®

Second Edition

GALIT SHMUELI
National Tsing Hua University
Taipei, Taiwan

PETER C. BRUCE
statistics.com
Arlington, USA

MIA L. STEPHENS
JMP Statistical Discovery LLC
Cary, USA

MURALIDHARA ANANDAMURTHY
SAS Institute Inc
Mumbai, India

NITIN R. PATEL
Cytel, Inc.
Cambridge, USA
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Copyright 2023 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
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To our families
Boaz and Noa
Liz, Lisa, and Allison
Michael, Jade Ann, and Audrey L
Seetha and Ananda
Tehmi, Arjun, and in memory of Aneesh
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CONTENTS

Foreword xix
Preface xx
Acknowledgments xxiii

PART I PRELIMINARIES

1 Introduction 3
1.1 What Is Business Analytics? 3
1.2 What Is Machine Learning? 5
1.3 Machine Learning, AI, and Related Terms 5
Statistical Modeling vs. Machine Learning 6
1.4 Big Data 6
1.5 Data Science 7
1.6 Why Are There So Many Different Methods? 8
1.7 Terminology and Notation 8
1.8 Road Maps to This Book 10
Order of Topics 12

2 Overview of the Machine Learning Process 17

2.1 Introduction 17
2.2 Core Ideas in Machine Learning 18
Classification 18
Prediction 18
Association Rules and Recommendation Systems 18

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Predictive Analytics 19
Data Reduction and Dimension Reduction 19
Data Exploration and Visualization 19
Supervised and Unsupervised Learning 19
2.3 The Steps in A Machine Learning Project 21
2.4 Preliminary Steps 22
Organization of Data 22
Sampling from a Database 22
Oversampling Rare Events in Classification Tasks 23
Preprocessing and Cleaning the Data 23
2.5 Predictive Power and Overfitting 29
Overfitting 29
Creation and Use of Data Partitions 31
2.6 Building a Predictive Model with JMP Pro 34
Predicting Home Values in a Boston Neighborhood 34
Modeling Process 36
2.7 Using JMP Pro for Machine Learning 42
2.8 Automating Machine Learning Solutions 43
Predicting Power Generator Failure 44
Uber’s Michelangelo 45
2.9 Ethical Practice in Machine Learning 47
Machine Learning Software: The State of the Market by Herb
Edelstein 47
Problems 52

PART II DATA EXPLORATION AND DIMENSION REDUCTION

3 Data Visualization 59
3.1 Introduction 59
3.2 Data Examples 61
Example 1: Boston Housing Data 61
Example 2: Ridership on Amtrak Trains 62
3.3 Basic Charts: Bar Charts, Line Graphs, and Scatter Plots 62
Distribution Plots: Boxplots and Histograms 64
Heatmaps 67
3.4 Multidimensional Visualization 70
Adding Variables: Color, Hue, Size, Shape, Multiple Panels,
Animation 70
Manipulations: Rescaling, Aggregation and Hierarchies, Zooming,
Filtering 73
Reference: Trend Line and Labels 77
Scaling Up: Large Datasets 79
Multivariate Plot: Parallel Coordinates Plot 80
Interactive Visualization 80
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3.5 Specialized Visualizations 82

Visualizing Networked Data 82
Visualizing Hierarchical Data: More on Treemaps 83
Visualizing Geographical Data: Maps 84
3.6 Summary: Major Visualizations and Operations, According to
Machine Learning Goal 87
Prediction 87
Classification 87
Time Series Forecasting 87
Unsupervised Learning 88
Problems 89

4 Dimension Reduction 91
4.1 Introduction 91
4.2 Curse of Dimensionality 92
4.3 Practical Considerations 92
Example 1: House Prices in Boston 92
4.4 Data Summaries 93
Summary Statistics 94
Tabulating Data 96
4.5 Correlation Analysis 97
4.6 Reducing the Number of Categories in Categorical Variables 98
4.7 Converting a Categorical Variable to a Continuous Variable 100
4.8 Principal Component Analysis 100
Example 2: Breakfast Cereals 101
Principal Components 106
Standardizing the Data 107
Using Principal Components for Classification and Prediction 110
4.9 Dimension Reduction Using Regression Models 110
4.10 Dimension Reduction Using Classification and Regression Trees 111
Problems 112

PART III PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

5 Evaluating Predictive Performance 117

5.1 Introduction 118
5.2 Evaluating Predictive Performance 118
Naive Benchmark: The Average 118
Prediction Accuracy Measures 119
Comparing Training and Validation Performance 120
5.3 Judging Classifier Performance 121
Benchmark: The Naive Rule 121
Class Separation 121
The Classification (Confusion) Matrix 122
Using the Validation Data 123
Accuracy Measures 123
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Propensities and Threshold for Classification 124

Performance in Unequal Importance of Classes 127
Asymmetric Misclassification Costs 130
Generalization to More Than Two Classes 132
5.4 Judging Ranking Performance 133
Lift Curves for Binary Data 133
Beyond Two Classes 135
Lift Curves Incorporating Costs and Benefits 136
5.5 Oversampling 137
Creating an Over-sampled Training Set 139
Evaluating Model Performance Using a Nonoversampled
Validation Set 139
Evaluating Model Performance If Only Oversampled Validation
Set Exists 140
Problems 142

PART IV PREDICTION AND CLASSIFICATION METHODS

6 Multiple Linear Regression 147

6.1 Introduction 147
6.2 Explanatory vs. Predictive Modeling 148
6.3 Estimating the Regression Equation and Prediction 149
Example: Predicting the Price of Used Toyota Corolla
Automobiles 150
6.4 Variable Selection in Linear Regression 155
Reducing the Number of Predictors 155
How to Reduce the Number of Predictors 156
Manual Variable Selection 156
Automated Variable Selection 157
Regularization (Shriknage Models) 164
Problems 170

7 k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) 175

7.1 The 𝑘-NN Classifier (Categorical Outcome) 175
Determining Neighbors 175
Classification Rule 176
Example: Riding Mowers 176
Choosing Parameter 𝑘 178
Setting the Threshold Value 179
Weighted 𝑘-NN 181
𝑘-NN with More Than Two Classes 182
Working with Categorical Predictors 182
7.2 𝑘-NN for a Numerical Response 184
7.3 Advantages and Shortcomings of 𝑘-NN Algorithms 184
Problems 186
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8 The Naive Bayes Classifier 189

8.1 Introduction 189
Threshold Probability Method 190
Conditional Probability 190
Example 1: Predicting Fraudulent Financial Reporting 190
8.2 Applying the Full (Exact) Bayesian Classifier 191
Using the “Assign to the Most Probable Class” Method 191
Using the Threshold Probability Method 191
Practical Difficulty with the Complete (Exact) Bayes Procedure 192
8.3 Solution: Naive Bayes 192
The Naive Bayes Assumption of Conditional Independence 193
Using the Threshold Probability Method 194
Example 2: Predicting Fraudulent Financial Reports 194
Example 3: Predicting Delayed Flights 195
Evaluating the Performance of Naive Bayes Output from JMP 198
Working with Continuous Predictors 199
8.4 Advantages and Shortcomings of the Naive Bayes Classifier 201
Problems 203

9 Classification and Regression Trees 205

9.1 Introduction 206
Tree Structure 206
Decision Rules 207
Classifying a New Record 207
9.2 Classification Trees 207
Recursive Partitioning 207
Example 1: Riding Mowers 208
Categorical Predictors 210
Standardization 210
9.3 Growing a Tree for Riding Mowers Example 210
Choice of First Split 211
Choice of Second Split 212
Final Tree 212
Using a Tree to Classify New Records 213
9.4 Evaluating the Performance of a Classification Tree 215
Example 2: Acceptance of Personal Loan 215
9.5 Avoiding Overfitting 219
Stopping Tree Growth: CHAID 220
Growing a Full Tree and Pruning It Back 220
How JMP Pro Limits Tree Size 221
9.6 Classification Rules from Trees 222
9.7 Classification Trees for More Than Two Classes 224
9.8 Regression Trees 224
Prediction 224
Evaluating Performance 225
9.9 Advantages and Weaknesses of a Single Tree 227
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9.10 Improving Prediction: Random Forests and Boosted Trees 229

Random Forests 229
Boosted Trees 230
Problems 233

10 Logistic Regression 237

10.1 Introduction 237
10.2 The Logistic Regression Model 239
10.3 Example: Acceptance of Personal Loan 240
Model with a Single Predictor 241
Estimating the Logistic Model from Data: Multiple Predictors 243
Interpreting Results in Terms of Odds (for a Profiling Goal) 246
10.4 Evaluating Classification Performance 247
10.5 Variable Selection 249
10.6 Logistic Regression for Multi-class Classification 250
Logistic Regression for Nominal Classes 250
Logistic Regression for Ordinal Classes 251
Example: Accident Data 252
10.7 Example of Complete Analysis: Predicting Delayed Flights 253
Data Preprocessing 255
Model Fitting, Estimation, and Interpretation---A Simple Model 256
Model Fitting, Estimation and Interpretation---The Full Model 257
Model Performance 257
Problems 264

11 Neural Nets 267

11.1 Introduction 267
11.2 Concept and Structure of a Neural Network 268
11.3 Fitting a Network to Data 269
Example 1: Tiny Dataset 269
Computing Output of Nodes 269
Preprocessing the Data 272
Training the Model 273
Using the Output for Prediction and Classification 279
Example 2: Classifying Accident Severity 279
Avoiding Overfitting 281
11.4 User Input in JMP Pro 282
11.5 Exploring the Relationship Between Predictors and Outcome 284
11.6 Deep Learning 285
Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) 285
Local Feature Map 287
A Hierarchy of Features 287
The Learning Process 287
Unsupervised Learning 288
Conclusion 289
11.7 Advantages and Weaknesses of Neural Networks 289
Problems 290
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CONTENTS xiii

12 Discriminant Analysis 293

12.1 Introduction 293
Example 1: Riding Mowers 294
Example 2: Personal Loan Acceptance 294
12.2 Distance of an Observation from a Class 295
12.3 From Distances to Propensities and Classifications 297
12.4 Classification Performance of Discriminant Analysis 300
12.5 Prior Probabilities 301
12.6 Classifying More Than Two Classes 303
Example 3: Medical Dispatch to Accident Scenes 303
12.7 Advantages and Weaknesses 306
Problems 307

13 Generating, Comparing, and Combining Multiple Models 311

13.1 Ensembles 311
Why Ensembles Can Improve Predictive Power 312
Simple Averaging or Voting 313
Bagging 314
Boosting 315
Stacking 316
Advantages and Weaknesses of Ensembles 317
13.2 Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) 317
AutoML: Explore and Clean Data 317
AutoML: Determine Machine Learning Task 318
AutoML: Choose Features and Machine Learning Methods 318
AutoML: Evaluate Model Performance 320
AutoML: Model Deployment 321
Advantages and Weaknesses of Automated Machine Learning 322
13.3 Summary 322
Problems 323

PART V INTERVENTION AND USER FEEDBACK

14 Interventions: Experiments, Uplift Models, and Reinforcement Learning 327

14.1 Introduction 327
14.2 A/B Testing 328
Example: Testing a New Feature in a Photo Sharing App 329
The Statistical Test for Comparing Two Groups (𝑇 -Test) 329
Multiple Treatment Groups: A/B/n Tests 333
Multiple A/B Tests and the Danger of Multiple Testing 333
14.3 Uplift (Persuasion) Modeling 333
Getting the Data 334
A Simple Model 336
Modeling Individual Uplift 336
Creating Uplift Models in JMP Pro 337
Using the Results of an Uplift Model 338
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14.4 Reinforcement Learning 340

Explore-Exploit: Multi-armed Bandits 340
Markov Decision Process (MDP) 341
14.5 Summary 344
Problems 345

PART VI MINING RELATIONSHIPS AMONG RECORDS

15 Association Rules and Collaborative Filtering 349

15.1 Association Rules 349
Discovering Association Rules in Transaction Databases 350
Example 1: Synthetic Data on Purchases of Phone Faceplates 350
Data Format 350
Generating Candidate Rules 352
The Apriori Algorithm 353
Selecting Strong Rules 353
The Process of Rule Selection 356
Interpreting the Results 358
Rules and Chance 359
Example 2: Rules for Similar Book Purchases 361
15.2 Collaborative Filtering 362
Data Type and Format 363
Example 3: Netflix Prize Contest 363
User-Based Collaborative Filtering: “People Like You” 365
Item-Based Collaborative Filtering 366
Evaluating Performance 367
Advantages and Weaknesses of Collaborative Filtering 368
Collaborative Filtering vs. Association Rules 369
15.3 Summary 370
Problems 372

16 Cluster Analysis 375

16.1 Introduction 375
Example: Public Utilities 377
16.2 Measuring Distance Between Two Records 378
Euclidean Distance 379
Standardizing Numerical Measurements 379
Other Distance Measures for Numerical Data 379
Distance Measures for Categorical Data 382
Distance Measures for Mixed Data 382
16.3 Measuring Distance Between Two Clusters 383
Minimum Distance 383
Maximum Distance 383
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CONTENTS xv

Average Distance 383

Centroid Distance 383
16.4 Hierarchical (Agglomerative) Clustering 385
Single Linkage 385
Complete Linkage 386
Average Linkage 386
Centroid Linkage 386
Ward’s Method 387
Dendrograms: Displaying Clustering Process and Results 387
Validating Clusters 391
Two-Way Clustering 393
Limitations of Hierarchical Clustering 393
16.5 Nonhierarchical Clustering: The 𝐾-Means Algorithm 394
Choosing the Number of Clusters (𝑘) 396
Problems 403

PART VII FORECASTING TIME SERIES

17 Handling Time Series 409

17.1 Introduction 409
17.2 Descriptive vs. Predictive Modeling 410
17.3 Popular Forecasting Methods in Business 411
Combining Methods 411
17.4 Time Series Components 411
Example: Ridership on Amtrak Trains 412
17.5 Data Partitioning and Performance Evaluation 415
Benchmark Performance: Naive Forecasts 417
Generating Future Forecasts 417
Problems 419

18 Regression-Based Forecasting 423

18.1 A Model with Trend 424
Linear Trend 424
Exponential Trend 427
Polynomial Trend 429
18.2 A Model with Seasonality 430
Additive vs. Multiplicative Seasonality 432
18.3 A Model with Trend and Seasonality 433
18.4 Autocorrelation and ARIMA Models 433
Computing Autocorrelation 433
Improving Forecasts by Integrating Autocorrelation Information 437
Fitting AR Models to Residuals 439
Evaluating Predictability 441
Problems 444
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19 Smoothing and Deep Learning Methods for Forecasting 455

19.1 Introduction 455
19.2 Moving Average 456
Centered Moving Average for Visualization 456
Trailing Moving Average for Forecasting 457
Choosing Window Width (𝑤) 460
19.3 Simple Exponential Smoothing 461
Choosing Smoothing Parameter 𝛼 462
Relation Between Moving Average and Simple Exponential
Smoothing 465
19.4 Advanced Exponential Smoothing 465
Series With a Trend 465
Series With a Trend and Seasonality 466
19.5 Deep Learning for Forecasting 470
Problems 472

PART VIII DATA ANALYTICS

20 Text Mining 483

20.1 Introduction 483
20.2 The Tabular Representation of Text: Document–Term Matrix and
“Bag-of-Words” 484
20.3 Bag-of-Words vs. Meaning Extraction at Document Level 486
20.4 Preprocessing the Text 486
Tokenization 487
Text Reduction 488
Presence/Absence vs. Frequency (Occurrences) 489
Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) 489
From Terms to Topics: Latent Semantic Analysis and Topic
Analysis 490
Extracting Meaning 491
From Terms to High Dimensional Word Vectors: Word2Vec 491
20.5 Implementing Machine Learning Methods 492
20.6 Example: Online Discussions on Autos and Electronics 492
Importing the Records 493
Text Preprocessing in JMP 494
Using Latent Semantic Analysis and Topic Analysis 496
Fitting a Predictive Model 499
Prediction 499
20.7 Example: Sentiment Analysis of Movie Reviews 500
Data Preparation 500
Latent Semantic Analysis and Fitting a Predictive Model 500
20.8 Summary 502
Problems 503
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CONTENTS xvii

21 Responsible Data Science 505

21.1 Introduction 505
Example: Predicting Recidivism 506
21.2 Unintentional Harm 506
21.3 Legal Considerations 508
The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) 508
Protected Groups 508
21.4 Principles of Responsible Data Science 508
Non-maleficence 509
Fairness 509
Transparency 510
Accountability 511
Data Privacy and Security 511
21.5 A Responsible Data Science Framework 511
Justification 511
Assembly 512
Data Preparation 513
Modeling 513
Auditing 513
21.6 Documentation Tools 514
Impact Statements 514
Model Cards 515
Datasheets 516
Audit Reports 516
21.7 Example: Applying the RDS Framework to the COMPAS Example 517
Unanticipated Uses 518
Ethical Concerns 518
Protected Groups 518
Data Issues 518
Fitting the Model 519
Auditing the Model 520
Bias Mitigation 526
21.8 Summary 526
Problems 528

PART IX CASES

22 Cases 533
22.1 Charles Book Club 533
The Book Industry 533
Database Marketing at Charles 534
Machine Learning Techniques 535
Assignment 537
22.2 German Credit 541
Background 541
Data 541
Assignment 544
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22.3 Tayko Software Cataloger 545

Background 545
The Mailing Experiment 545
Data 545
Assignment 546
22.4 Political Persuasion 548
Background 548
Predictive Analytics Arrives in US Politics 548
Political Targeting 548
Uplift 549
Data 549
Assignment 550
22.5 Taxi Cancellations 552
Business Situation 552
Assignment 552
22.6 Segmenting Consumers of Bath Soap 554
Business Situation 554
Key Problems 554
Data 555
Measuring Brand Loyalty 556
Assignment 556
22.7 Catalog Cross-Selling 557
Background 557
Assignment 557
22.8 Direct-Mail Fundraising 559
Background 559
Data 559
Assignment 559
22.9 Time Series Case: Forecasting Public Transportation Demand 562
Background 562
Problem Description 562
Available Data 562
Assignment Goal 562
Assignment 563
Tips and Suggested Steps 563
22.10 Loan Approval 564
Background 564
Regulatory Requirements 564
Getting Started 564
Assignment 564
References 567
Data Files Used in the Book 571
Index 573
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FOREWORD

When I began my career back in the last century, most corporate computing took place on
mainframe computers, data was scarce, organizations were far more hierarchical, and man-
agerial decision-making was often driven by the loudest person in the room or the “golden
gut” of an experienced executive. By contrast, today’s business world features a wide variety
of digitally connected professionals who interact with their customers and their colleagues
through software applications (many of them web- and cloud-based), remarkably power-
ful personal computers, and always-connected smart phones. Data is everywhere, though
useful data is often still elusive. And more and more of the systems that companies and
individuals rely upon are utilizing techniques from machine learning to deliver data-driven
insights, make predictions, and drive decision making.
For the past decade, I have been teaching courses in machine learning and predictive
analytics to business students at the University of San Francisco. My students have a
wide variety of academic backgrounds and professional interests. My goal is to prepare
them for careers in this rapidly evolving, digitally enabled, and increasingly data- and
algorithmically-driven business world.
I was fortunate enough to find Data Mining for Business Analytics: Concepts,
Techniques, and Applications with JMP Pro several years ago. This book provides a clear
roadmap to the fundamentals of machine learning as well as a number of pathways to ex-
plore a variety of specific machine learning methods for business analytics including pre-
diction, classification, and clustering. In addition, this textbook and the JMP Pro software
combine to provide a great platform for interactive learning. The textbook utilizes the JMP
Pro software to illustrate machine learning fundamentals, exploratory data analysis meth-
ods, and data visualization concepts, and a broad range of supervised and unsupervised
machine learning methods. The book also provides exercises that also enable you to utilize
JMP Pro to learn and master machine learning techniques.
I was very excited when I learned that the next edition of this book was ready to be
released. Now entitled Machine Learning for Business Analytics: Concepts, Techniques,
and Applications with JMP Pro, this 2nd edition is based on the most recent version of
the JMP Pro software, and both the text and the software have been significantly expanded
and updated. This new edition includes all the first edition material (supervised learning,
unsupervised methods, visualization, and time series), as well as a number of new topics:
recommendation systems, text mining, ethical issues in data science, deep learning, and
interventions and reinforcement learning.
Along with the JMP Pro software, this book will provide you with a foundation of knowl-
edge about machine learning. Its lessons and insights will serve you well in today’s dynamic
and data-intensive business world. Welcome aboard!
VIJAY MEHROTRA
University of San Francisco

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PREFACE

This textbook first appeared in early 2007 and has been used by numerous students
and practitioners and in many courses, including our own experience teaching this ma-
terial both online and in person for more than 15 years. The first edition, based on
the Excel add-in Analytic Solver Data Mining (previously XLMiner), was followed
by two more Analytic Solver editions, a JMP Pro® edition, two R editions, a Python
edition, a RapidMiner edition, and now this second JMP Pro edition, with its companion
website, www.jmp.com/dataminingbook. JMP Pro is a desktop statistical package from
JMP Statistical Discovery that runs natively on Mac and Windows machines.1
The first JMP Pro edition was the first edition to fully integrate JMP Pro. As in the
previous JMP edition, the focus in this new edition is on machine learning concepts and
how to implement the associated algorithms in JMP Pro. All examples, special topics boxes,
instructions, and exercises presented in this book are based on JMP Pro 17, the professional
version of JMP, which has a rich array of built-in tools for interactive data visualization,
analysis, and modeling.2
For this new JMP Pro edition, a new co-author, Muralidhara Anandamurthy, comes on
board bringing extensive experience in analytics and data science at Genpact, Target, and
Danske, and as a member of the JMP Academic Team.
The new edition provides significant updates both in terms of JMP Pro and in terms of
new topics and content. In addition to updating software routines and outputs that have
changed or become available since the first edition, this edition also incorporates updates
and new material based on feedback from instructors teaching MBA, MS, undergraduate,
diploma, and executive courses, and from their students. Importantly, this edition includes
several new topics:

∙ A new chapter on Responsible Data Science (Chapter 21) covering topics of fairness,
transparency, model cards and datasheets, legal considerations, and more, with an il-
lustrative example.
∙ A dedicated section on deep learning in Chapter 11.
∙ A new chapter on recommendations, covering association rules and collaborative fil-
tering (Chapter 15).
∙ A new chapter on Text Mining covering main approaches to the analysis of text data
(Chapter 20).
∙ The Performance Evaluation exposition in Chapter 5 was expanded to include further
metrics (precision and recall, F1).

1 JMP Statistical Discovery LLC, 100 SAS Campus Drive Cary, NC 27513.
2 See https://www.jmp.com/pro

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PREFACE xxi

∙ A new chapter on Generating, Comparing, and Combining Multiple Models

(Chapter 13) that covers ensembles and AutoML.
∙ A new chapter dedicated to Interventions and User Feedback (Chapter 14) that covers
A/B tests, uplift modeling, and reinforcement learning.
∙ A new case (Loan Approval) that touches on regulatory and ethical issues.

A note about the book’s title: The first two editions of the book used the title Data
Mining for Business Intelligence. Business intelligence today refers mainly to reporting
and data visualization (“what is happening now”), while business analytics has taken over
the “advanced analytics,” which include predictive analytics and data mining. Later edi-
tions were therefore renamed Data Mining for Business Analytics. However, the recent AI
transformation has made the term machine learning more popularly associated with the
methods in this textbook. In this new edition, we therefore use the updated terms Machine
Learning and Business Analytics.
Since the appearance of the first JMP Pro edition, the landscape of the courses us-
ing the textbook has greatly expanded: whereas initially the book was used mainly in
semester-long elective MBA-level courses, it is now used in a variety of courses in busi-
ness analytics degrees and certificate programs, ranging from undergraduate programs to
postgraduate and executive education programs. Courses in such programs also vary in
their duration and coverage. In many cases, this textbook is used across multiple courses.
The book is designed to continue supporting the general “predictive analytics” or “data
mining” course as well as supporting a set of courses in dedicated business analytics
programs.
A general “business analytics,” “predictive analytics,” or “data mining” course, common
in MBA and undergraduate programs as a one-semester elective, would cover Parts I–III,
and choose a subset of methods from Parts IV and V. Instructors can choose to use cases as
team assignments, class discussions, or projects. For a two-semester course, Part VII might
be considered, and we recommend introducing the new Part VIII (Data Analytics).
For a set of courses in a dedicated business analytics program, here are a few courses
that have been using our book:

Predictive Analytics—Supervised Learning: In a dedicated business analytics program,

the topic of predictive analytics is typically instructed across a set of courses. The first
course would cover Parts I–III, and instructors typically choose a subset of methods
from Part IV according to the course length. We recommend including “Part VIII:
Data Analytics.”
Predictive Analytics—Unsupervised Learning: This course introduces data exploration
and visualization, dimension reduction, mining relationships, and clustering (Parts II
and VI). If this course follows the Predictive Analytics: Supervised Learning course,
then it is useful to examine examples and approaches that integrate unsupervised and
supervised learning, such as the new part on “Data Analytics.”
Forecasting Analytics: A dedicated course on time series forecasting would rely on
Part VII.
Advanced Analytics: A course that integrates the learnings from predictive analytics
(supervised and unsupervised learning) can focus on Part VIII: Data Analytics, where
social network analytics and text mining are introduced, and responsible data science
is discussed. Such a course might also include Chapter 13, Generating, Comparing,
ShmueliV2 Date: March 31, 2023 Time: 12:36 pm

xxii PREFACE

and Combining Multiple Models from Part IV, as well as Part V, which covers exper-
iments, uplift, and reinforcement learning. Some instructors choose to use the cases
(Chapter 22) in such a course.

In all courses, we strongly recommend including a project component, where data

are either collected by students according to their interest or provided by the instructor
(e.g., from the many machine learning competition datasets available). From our experi-
ence and other instructors’ experience, such projects enhance the learning and provide stu-
dents with an excellent opportunity to understand the strengths of machine learning and the
challenges that arise in the process.
GALIT SHMUELI, PETER BRUCE, MIA STEPHENS, MURALIDHARA ANANDAMURTHY, AND NITIN PATEL
2022
ShmueliV2 Date: March 23, 2023 Time: 6:44 am

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank the many people who assisted us in improving the book from its inception as Data
Mining for Business Intelligence in 2006 (using XLMiner, now Analytic Solver), its rein-
carnation as Data Mining for Business Analytics, and now Machine Learning for Business
Analytics, including translations in Chinese and Korean and versions supporting Analytic
Solver Data Mining, R, Python, RapidMiner, and JMP.
Anthony Babinec, who has been using earlier editions of this book for years in his data
mining courses at Statistics.com, provided us with detailed and expert corrections. Dan
Toy and John Elder IV greeted our project with early enthusiasm and provided detailed and
useful comments on initial drafts. Ravi Bapna, who used an early draft in a data mining
course at the Indian School of Business, and later at University of Minnesota, has provided
invaluable comments and helpful suggestions since the book’s start.
Many of the instructors, teaching assistants, and students using earlier editions of the
book have contributed invaluable feedback both directly and indirectly, through fruitful
discussions, learning journeys, and interesting data mining projects that have helped shape
and improve the book. These include MBA students from the University of Maryland, MIT,
the Indian School of Business, National Tsing Hua University, and Statistics.com. Instruc-
tors from many universities and teaching programs, too numerous to list, have supported
and helped improve the book since its inception.
Kuber Deokar, instructional operations supervisor at Statistics.com, has been unstinting
in his assistance, support, and detailed attention. We also thank Anuja Kulkarni, Poonam
Tribhuwan, and Shweta Jadhav, assistant teachers. Valerie Troiano has shepherded many
instructors and students through the Statistics.com courses that have helped nurture the
development of these books.
Colleagues and family members have been providing ongoing feedback and assistance
with this book project. Vijay Kamble at UIC and Travis Greene at NTHU have provided
valuable help with the section on reinforcement learning. Boaz Shmueli and Raquelle Azran
gave detailed editorial comments and suggestions on the first two editions; Bruce McCul-
lough and Adam Hughes did the same for the first edition. Noa Shmueli provided careful
proofs of the third edition. Ran Shenberger offered design tips. Ken Strasma, founder of
the microtargeting firm HaystaqDNA and director of targeting for the 2004 Kerry cam-
paign and the 2008 Obama campaign, provided the scenario and data for the section on
uplift modeling.
Marietta Tretter at Texas A&M shared comments and thoughts on the time series chap-
ters, and Stephen Few and Ben Shneiderman provided feedback and suggestions on the data
visualization chapter and overall design tips.
Susan Palocsay and Margret Bjarnadottir have provided suggestions and feedback on
numerous occasions. We also thank Catherine Plaisant at the University of Maryland’s
Human–Computer Interaction Lab, who helped out in a major way by contributing exercises

xxiii
ShmueliV2 Date: March 23, 2023 Time: 6:44 am

xxiv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

and illustrations to the data visualization chapter. Gregory Piatetsky-Shapiro, founder of

KDNuggets.com, was generous with his time and counsel in the early years of this project.
We thank colleagues at the Sloan School of Management at MIT for their support during
the formative stage of this book—Dimitris Bertsimas, James Orlin, Robert Freund, Roy
Welsch, Gordon Kaufmann, and Gabriel Bitran. As teaching assistants for the data mining
course at Sloan, Adam Mersereau gave detailed comments on the notes and cases that were
the genesis of this book, Romy Shioda helped with the preparation of several cases and
exercises used here, and Mahesh Kumar helped with the material on clustering.
Colleagues at the University of Maryland’s Smith School of Business: Shrivardhan Lele,
Wolfgang Jank, and Paul Zantek provided practical advice and comments. We thank Robert
Windle and University of Maryland MBA students Timothy Roach, Pablo Macouzet, and
Nathan Birckhead for invaluable datasets. We also thank MBA students Rob Whitener and
Daniel Curtis for the heatmap and map charts.
Anand Bodapati provided both data and advice. Jake Hofman from Microsoft Research
and Sharad Borle assisted with data access. Suresh Ankolekar and Mayank Shah helped
develop several cases and provided valuable pedagogical comments. Vinni Bhandari helped
write the Charles Book Club case.
We would like to thank Marvin Zelen, L. J. Wei, and Cyrus Mehta at Harvard, as well
as Anil Gore at Pune University, for thought-provoking discussions on the relationship be-
tween statistics and data mining. Our thanks to Richard Larson of the Engineering Systems
Division, MIT, for sparking many stimulating ideas on the role of data mining in modeling
complex systems. Over two decades ago, they helped us develop a balanced philosophical
perspective on the emerging field of machine learning.
We thank the folks at Wiley for this successful journey of nearly two decades. Steve
Quigley at Wiley showed confidence in this book from the beginning, helped us navigate
through the publishing process with great speed, and together with Curt Hinrichs’s encour-
agement and support helped make this JMP Pro® edition possible. Jon Gurstelle, Kathleen
Pagliaro, Allison McGinniss, Sari Friedman, and Katrina Maceda at Wiley, and Shikha
Pahuja from Thomson Digital, were all helpful and responsive as we finalized the first JMP
Pro edition. Brett Kurzman has taken over the reins and is now shepherding the project.
Becky Cowan, Sarah Lemore, and Kavya Ramu greatly assisted us in pushing ahead and
finalizing this new JMP Pro edition. We are also especially grateful to Amy Hendrickson,
who assisted with typesetting and making this book beautiful.
Finally, we’d like to thank the reviewers of the first JMP Pro edition for their feedback
and suggestions, and members of the JMP Documentation, Education and Development
teams, for their support, patience, and responsiveness to our endless questions and requests.
We thank L. Allison Jones-Farmer, Maria Weese, Ian Cox, Di Michelson, Marie Gaudard,
Curt Hinrichs, Rob Carver, Jim Grayson, Brady Brady, Jian Cao, Elizabeth Claassen, Peng
Liu, Chris Gotwalt, Russ Wolfinger, and Fang Chen. Most important, we thank John Sall,
whose innovation, inspiration, and continued dedication to providing accessible and user-
friendly desktop statistical software made JMP, and this book, possible.
ShmueliV2 Date: January 20, 2023 Time: 7:33 am

PART I

PRELIMINARIES
ShmueliV2 Date: January 20, 2023 Time: 7:33 am
ShmueliV2 Date: March 9, 2023 Time: 12:58 pm

1
INTRODUCTION

1.1 WHAT IS BUSINESS ANALYTICS?

Business analytics (BA) is the practice and art of bringing quantitative data to bear on
decision-making. The term means different things to different organizations.
Consider the role of analytics in helping newspapers survive the transition to a digital
world. One tabloid newspaper with a working-class readership in Britain had launched
a web version of the paper, and did tests on its home page to determine which images
produced more hits: cats, dogs, or monkeys. This simple application, for this company,
was considered analytics. By contrast, the Washington Post has a highly influential audi-
ence that is of interest to big defense contractors: it is perhaps the only newspaper where
you routinely see advertisements for aircraft carriers. In the digital environment, the Post
can track readers by time of day, location, and user subscription information. In this fash-
ion the display of the aircraft carrier advertisement in the online paper may be focused on a
very small group of individuals---say, the members of the House and Senate Armed Services
Committees who will be voting on the Pentagon’s budget.
Business analytics, or more generically, analytics, includes a range of data analysis
methods.
Many powerful applications involve little more than counting, rule checking, and basic
arithmetic. For some organizations, this is what is meant by analytics.
The next level of business analytics, now termed business intelligence (BI), refers to
the use of data visualization and reporting for becoming aware and understanding “what
happened and what is happening.” This is done by use of charts, tables, and dashboards to
display, examine, and explore data. Business intelligence, which earlier consisted mainly
of generating static reports, has evolved into more user-friendly and effective tools and
practices, such as creating interactive dashboards that allow the user not only to access
real-time data, but also to directly interact with it. Effective dashboards are those that tie
directly to company data, and give managers a tool to see quickly what might not readily
be apparent in a large complex database. One such tool for industrial operations managers

Machine Learning for Business Analytics: Concepts, Techniques, and Applications with JMP Pro® ,
Second Edition. Galit Shmueli, Peter C. Bruce, Mia L. Stephens, Muralidhara Anandamurthy, and Nitin R. Patel.
© 2023 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Published 2023 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

3
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
 mas por ser la que miré
de las más lindas que ví.

Amor, das á tantos muerte,

que pues matar es tu bien,
algún día espero verte,
que á ti mismo has de
ofenderte,
porque no tendrás á quién.
¡Oh qué bien parescerás
herido de tus dolores!
cautivo tuyo serás,
que á ti mismo tomarás,
si has de tomar amores.

Entonces dolor doblado

podrás dar á las personas,
y quedarás excusado
de haberme á mí
maltratado,
pues á ti no te perdonas.
Y si quiero reprehenderte,
dirás, volviendo por ti,
razón forzarte y moverte,
que á ti mismo dando
muerte,
vida no dejes á mi.

El cantar de Tauriso paresció muy

bien á todos, y en particular á
Ismenia. Que aunque la canción,
por hablar de mal casadas, era de
Diana, la glossa della, por tener
quejas del Amor, era común á
cuantos dél estaban
atormentados. Y por esso
Ismenia, como aquélla que daba
alguna culpa á Cupido de su
pena, no sólo le contentaron las
quejas que dél hizo Tauriso; mas
ella, al mesmo propósito, al son
de la lira, dijo este soneto, que le
solía cantar Montano en el tiempo
que por ella penaba:

Soneto.
Sin que ninguna cosa te
levante,
Amor, que de perderme has
sido parte,
haré que tu crueldad en
toda parte
se suene de Poniente hasta
Levante.
Aunque más sople el Abrego ó
Levante,
mi nave de aquel golfo no
se parte,
do tu poder furioso le abre y
parte,
sin que en ella un suspiro se
levante.
Si vuelvo el rostro estando en
el tormento,
tu furia allí enflaquesce mi
deseo,
y tu fuerza mis fuerzas
cansa y corta;
Jamás al puerto iré, ni lo
deseo,
y ha tanto que esta pena me
atormenta,
 que un mal tan largo hará mi
vida corta.

No tardó mucho Marcelio á

respondelle con otro soneto
hecho al mismo propósito y de la
misma suerte, salvo que las
quejas que daba no eran sólo del
Amor, pero de la Fortuna y de sí
mismo.

Soneto.
Voy tras la muerte sorda
passo á passo,
siguiéndola por campo, valle
y sierra,
y al bien ansi el camino se
me cierra,
que no hay por donde guíe
un sólo passo.
Pensando el mal que de
contino passo,
una navaja aguda, y cruda
sierra
de modo el corazón me
parte y sierra,
que de la vida dudo en este
passo.
La Diosa, cuyo ser contino
rueda,
y Amor que ora consuela,
ora fatiga,
son contra mí, y aun yo
mismo me daño.
Fortuna en no mudar su varia
 rueda,
y Amor y yo, cresciendo mi
fatiga,
sin darme tiempo á lamentar
mi daño.

El deseo que tenía Diana de ir á

la casa de Felicia no le sufría
detenerse allí más, ni esperar
otros cantares, sino que
acabando Marcelio su canción se
levantó. Lo mismo hicieron
Ismenia, Clenarda y Marcelio,
conosciendo ser aquella la
voluntad de Diana, aunque sabían
que la casa de Felicia estaba muy
cerca, y había sobrado tiempo
para llegar á ella antes de la
noche. Despedidos de Tauriso y
Berardo, salieron de la fuente
bella por la misma parte por
donde habían entrado, y
caminando por el bosque su
passo á passo, gozando de las
gentilezas y deleites que en él
había, á cabo de rato salieron dél,
y comenzaron á andar por un
ancho y espacioso llano, alegre
para la vista. Pensaron entonces
con qué darían regocijo á sus
ánimos, en tanto que duraba
aquel camino, y cada uno dijo
sobre ello su parescer. Pero
Marcelio, como estaba siempre
con la imagen de su Alcida en el
pensamiento, de ninguna cosa
más holgaba que de mirar los
gestos y escuchar las palabras de
Polydoro y Clenarda. Y ansí por
gozar á su placer deste contento,
dijo: No creo yo, pastoras, que
todos vuestros regocijos igualen
con el que podéis haber si
Clenarda os cuenta alguna cosa
de las que en los campos y
riberas de Guadalaviar ha visto.
Yo passé por allí andando en mi
peregrinación, pero no pude á mi
voluntad gozar de aquellos
deleites, por no tenerle yo en mi
corazón. Pero, pues para llegar á
donde imos tenemos de tiempo
largas dos horas, y el camino es
de media, podremos ir á espacio,
y ella nos dirá algo de lo mucho
que de aquella ameníssima tierra
se puede contar. Diana y Ismenia
á esto mostraron alegres gestos,
señalando tener contento de oirlo,
y aunque Diana moría por llegar
temprano al templo, por no
mostrar en ello sobrada passión
hubo de acomodarse á la
voluntad de todos. Clenarda
entonces, rogada por Marcelio,
prosiguiendo su camino, desta
manera comenzó á hablar:
Aunque decir yo con mal orden y
rústicas palabras las extrañezas y
beldades de la Valentina tierra
será agraviar sus merescimientos
y ofender vuestros oídos, quiero
deciros algo della, por no
perjudicar á vuestras voluntades.
No contaré particularmente la
fertilidad del abundoso suelo, la
amenidad de la siempre florida
campaña, la belleza de los más
encumbrados montes, los
sombríos de las verdes silvas, la
suavidad de las claras fuentes, la
melodía de las cantadoras aves,
la frescura de los suaves vientos,
la riqueza de los provechosos
ganados, la hermosura de los
poblados lugares, la blandura de
las amigables gentes, la
extrañeza de los sumptuosos
templos, ni otras muchas cosas
con que es aquella tierra
celebrada, pues para ello es
menester más largo tiempo y más
esforzado aliento. Pero porque de
la cosa más importante de aquella
tierra seáis informados, os
contaré lo que al famoso Turia,
río principal en aquellos campos
le oí cantar. Venimos un día
Polydoro y yo á su ribera para
preguntar á los pastores della el
camino del templo de Diana y
casa de Felicia, porque ellos son
los que en aquella tierra le saben,
y llegando á una cabaña de
vaqueros, los hallamos que
deleitosamente cantaban.
Preguntámosles lo que
deseábamos saber, y ellos con
mucho amor nos informaron
largamente de todo, y después
nos dijeron que, pues á tan buena
sazón habíamos llegado, no
dejássemos de gozar de un
suavíssimo canto que el famoso
Turia había de hacer no muy
lejos de allí antes de media hora.
Contentos fuimos de ser
presentes á tan deleitoso regocijo,
y nos aguardamos para ir con
ellos. Passado un rato en su
compañía, partimos caminando
riberas del río arriba, hasta que
llegamos á una espaciosa
campaña, donde vimos un grande
ajuntamiento de Nymphas,
pastores y pastoras, que todos
aguardaban que el famoso Turia
comenzasse su canto. No mucho
después vimos al viejo Turia salir
de una profundíssima cueva, en
su mano una urna, ó vaso muy
grande y bien labrado, su cabeza
coronada con hojas de roble de
laurel, los brazos vellosos, la
barba limosa y encanescida. Y
sentándose en el suelo, reclinado
sobre la urna, y derramando della
abundancia de claríssimas aguas,
levantando la ronca y congojada
voz, cantó desta manera:

Canto de Turia.
Regad el venturoso y fértil
suelo,
corrientes aguas, puras y
abundosas,
 dad á las hierbas y árboles
consuelo,
y frescas sostened flores y
rosas;
y ansí con el favor del alto
cielo
tendré yo mis riberas tan
hermosas,
que grande envidia habrán
de mi corona
el Pado, el Mincio, el
Rhódano y Garona.

Mientras andáis el curso

apressurando,
torciendo acá y allá vuestro
camino,
el Valentino suelo
hermoseando
con el licor sabroso y
cristalino,
mi flaco aliento y débil
esforzando,
quiero con el espíritu
adevino
cantar la alegre y próspera
ventura
que el cielo á vuestros
campos assegura.

Oidme, claras Nimphas y

pastores,
que sois hasta la Arcadia
celebrados:
no cantaré las coloradas
flores,
la deleitosa fuente y verdes
prados,
bosques sombríos, dulces
ruiseñores,
valles amenos, montes
encumbrados,
mas los varones célebres y
extraños
que aquí serán después de
largos años.

De aquí los dos pastores estoy

viendo
Calixto y Alexandre, cuya
fama,
la de los grandes Césares
venciendo,
desde el Atlante al Mauro se
derrama:
á cuya vida el cielo
respondiendo,
con una suerte altíssima los
llama,
para guardar del báratro
profundo
cuanto ganado pasce en
todo el mundo.

De cuya ilustre cepa veo

nascido
aquél varón de pecho
adamantino,
por valerosas armas
conoscido,
Cesar romano y Duque
valentino,
valiente corazón, nunca
vencido,
 al cual le aguarda un hado
tan malino,
que aquél raro valor y ánimo
fuerte
tendrá fin con sangrienta y
cruda muerte.

La mesma ha de acabar en un
momento
al Hugo, resplandor de los
Moncadas,
dejando ya con fuerte
atrevimiento
las mauritanas gentes
subjectadas:
ha de morir por Carlos
muy contento,
después de haber vencido
mil jornadas,
y pelear con poderosa mano
con el francés y bárbaro
africano.

Mas no miréis la gente

embravescida
con el furor del iracundo
Marte:
mirad la luz que aquí veréis
nascida,
luz de saber, prudencia,
genio y arte;
tanto en el mundo todo
esclarescida,
que ilustrará la más oscura
parte:
Vives, qué vivirá, mientras
al suelo
 lumbre ha de dar el gran
señor de Delo.

Cuyo saber altíssímo

heredando
el Honorato Juan, subirá
tanto,
que á un alto rey las letras
enseñando,
dará á las sacras Musas
grande espanto;
parésceme que ya le está
adornando
el obispal cayado y sacro
manto:
ojalá un mayoral tan
excelente
sus greyes en mis campos
apasciente.

Cuasi en el mesmo tiempo ha

de mostrarse
Núñez, que en la doctrina
en tiernos años
al grande Stagyrita ha de
igualarse,
y ha de ser luz de patrios y
de extraños:
no sentiréis Demósthenes
loarse
orando él. ¡Más, ay, ciegos
engaños!
¡ay, patria ingrata, á causa
tuya siento
que orillas de Ebro ha de
mudar su assiento!
¿Quién os dirá la excelsa
melodía,
con que las dulces voces
levantando,
resonarán por la ribera mía
poëtas mil? Ya estoy de
aquí mirando
que Apolo sus favores les
envía,
porque con alto espíritu
cantando,
hagan que el nombre de
este fértil suelo
del uno al otro polo extienda
el vuelo.

Ya veo al gran varón que

celebrado
será con clara fama en toda
parte,
que en verso al rojo Apolo
está igualado
y en armas está al par del
fiero Marte:
Ausías March, que á tí,
florido Prado,
Amor, Virtud y Muerte ha de
cantarte,
llevando por honrosa y justa
empresa
dar fama á la honestíssima
Teresa.

Bien mostrará ser hijo del

famoso
y grande Pedro March,
que en paz y en guerra,
 docto en el verso, en armas
poderoso,
dilatará la fama de su tierra;
cuyo linaje ilustre y
valeroso,
donde valor claríssimo se
encierra,
dará un Jáime y Arnau,
grandes poëtas,
á quien son favorables los
planetas.

Jorge del Rey con verso

aventajado
ha de dar honra á toda mi
ribera,
y siendo por mis Nimphas
coronado
resonará su nombre por do
quiera;
el revolver del cielo
apressurado
propicio le será de tal
manera,
que Italia de su verso terná
espanto
y ha de morir de envidia de
su canto.

Ya veo, Franci Oliver, que el

cielo hieres
con voz que hasta las nubes
te levanta,
y á ti también, claríssimo
Figueres,
en cuyo verso habrá lindeza
tanta;
 y á tí, Martín García, que
no mueres,
por más que tu hilo Lachesis
quebranta;
Innocent de Cubells,
también te veo
que en versos satisfaces mi
deseo.

Aquí tendréis un gran varón,

pastores,
que con virtud de hierbas
escondidas
presto remediará vuestros
dolores
y enmendará con versos
vuestras vidas:
pues, Nimphas, esparcid
hierbas y flores
al grande Jaime Roig
agradescidas,
coronad con laurel, serpillo y
apio
el gran siervo de Apolo y de
Esculapio.

Y al gran Narcis Viñoles,

que pregona
su gran valor con levantada
rima,
tejed de verde lauro una
corona,
haciendo al mundo pública
su estima;
tejed otra á la altíssima
persona,
 que el verso subirá á la
excelsa cima,
y ha de igualar al amador de
Laura,
Crespi celebradíssimo
Valldaura.

Parésceme que veo un

excelente
Conde, que el claro nombre
de su Oliva
hará que entre la extraña y
patria gente,
mientras que mundo habrá,
florezca y viva;
su hermoso verso irá
resplandesciente
con la perfecta lumbre, que
deriva
del encendido ardor de sus
Centellas,
que en luz competirán con
las estrellas.

Nimphas, haced del resto,

cuando el cielo
con Juan Fernández os
hará dichosas,
lugar no quede en todo
aqueste suelo,
do no sembréis los lirios y
las rosas;
y tú, ligera Fama, alarga el
vuelo,
emplea aquí tus fuerzas
poderosas,
y dale aquel renombre
soberano
que diste al celebrado
Mantuano.

Mirando estoy aquel poëta

raro
Jaime Gazull, que en rima
valentina
muestra el valor del vivo
ingenio y claro
que á las más altas nubes
se avecina;
y el Fenollar que á Tityro
acomparo,
mi consagrado espíritu
adevina,
que resonando aquí su
dulce verso
se escuchará par todo el
universo.

Con abundosos cantos del

Pineda
resonarán también estas
riberas,
con cuyos versos Pan
vencido queda,
y amansan su rigor las
tigres fieras;
hará que su famoso nombre
pueda
subir á las altíssimas
espheras:
por éste mayor honra haber
espero,
que la soberbia Smyrna por
Homero.
La suavidad, la gracia y el
assiento
mirad con que el gravíssimo
Vicente
Ferrandis mostrará el
supremo aliento,
siendo en sus claros
tiempos excelente:
pondrá freno á su furia el
bravo viento,
y detendrán mis aguas su
corriente
oyendo al son armónico y
suave
de su gracioso verso,
excelso y grave.

El cielo y la razón no han

consentido,
que hable con mi estilo
humilde y llano
del escuadrón intacto y
elegido
para tener oficio
sobrehumano,
Fernan, Sans, Valdellos
y el escogido
Cordero, y Blasco ingenio
soberano,
Gacet, lumbres más claras
que la Aurora,
de quien mi canto calla por
agora.

Cuando en el grande Borja,

de Montesa
 Maestre tan magnánimo
imagino,
que en versos y en
cualquier excelsa empresa
ha de mostrar valor alto y
divino,
parésceme que más importa
y pesa
mi buena suerte y próspero
destino,
que cuanta fama el Tíber ha
tenido,
por ser allí el gran Rómulo
nascido.

A ti del mismo padre y mismo

nombre
y misma sangre altíssima
engendrado,
claríssimo Don Juan, cuyo
renombre
será en Parnasso y Pindo
celebrado,
pues ánimo no habrá que no
se assombre
de ver tu verso al cielo
levantado;
las Musas de su mano en
Helicona
te están aparejando la
corona.

Con sus héroes el gran pueblo

Romano
no estuvo tan soberbio y
poderoso,
cuanto ha de estar mi fértil
suelo ufano,
cuando el magno Aguilón
me hará dichoso,
que en guerra y paz consejo
soberano,
verso subtil, y esfuerzo
valeroso,
le han de encumbrar en el
supremo estado
donde Maron ni Fabio no
han llegado.

Al Seraphin centellas voy

mirando,
que el canto altivo y militar
destreza
á la región etérea
sublimando,
al verso añadirá la fortaleza,
y en un extremo tal se irá
mostrando
su habilidad, su esfuerzo y
su nobleza,
que ya comienza en mí el
dulce contento
de su valor y gran
merescimiento.

A Don Luis Millán recelo y

temo
que no podré alabar como
deseo,
que en música estará en tan
alto extremo,
que el mundo le dirá
segundo Orpheo;
tendrá estado famoso, y tan
supremo,
en las heroicas rimas, que
no creo
que han de poder
nombrársele delante
Cino Pistoya y Guido
Cavalcante.

A tí, que alcanzarás tan larga

parte
del agua poderosa de
Pegaso,
á quien de poesía el
estandarte
darán las moradoras de
Parnasso,
noble Falcón, no quiero
aquí alabarte,
porque de ti la fama hará tal
caso,
que ha de tener particular
cuidado
que desde el Indo al Mauro
estés nombrado.

Semper loando el ínclito

imperante
Carlos, gran rey, tan grave
canto mueve,
que aunque la fama al cielo
le levante,
será poco á lo mucho que le
debe;
veréis que ha de passar tan
adelante
con el favor de las
hermanas nueve,