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International Political Economy Series
China’s Challenge
to US Supremacy
John G. Glenn
International Political Economy Series
Series Editor
Timothy M. Shaw
Visiting Professor
University of Massachusetts Boston, USA
and Emeritus Professor
University of London, UK
The global political economy is in flux as a series of cumulative crises
impacts its organization and governance. The IPE series has tracked its
development in both analysis and structure over the last three decades. It
has always had a concentration on the global South. Now the South increas-
ingly challenges the North as the centre of development, also reflected in
a growing number of submissions and publications on indebted Eurozone
economies in Southern Europe. An indispensable resource for scholars
and researchers, the series examines a variety of capitalisms and connec-
tions by focusing on emerging economies, companies and sectors, debates
and policies. It informs diverse policy communities as the established
trans-Atlantic North declines and ‘the rest’, especially the BRICS, rise.
China’s Challenge to
US Supremacy
Economic Superpower versus Rising Star
John G. Glenn
Department of Politics and International Relations
Southampton University
United Kingdom
v
vi Contents
4 China Opens 83
Introduction 83
China’s Growth 84
China and the East Asian Developmental State Model 92
China’s Divergence from the Developmental State Model 96
China’s Trading Partners 101
Conclusion 105
5 China Integrates 111
Introduction 111
WTO Accession 114
The Loopholes in the Global Architecture 118
Overseas Production in China 120
Multinationals and Intellectual Property 123
The Outlook for China 126
Conclusion 132
7 Future Scenarios 175
Introduction 175
The Military Balance 176
China’s Military Power 180
The International Arena: From Norm-Taker
to Norm-Maker 187
Future Scenarios 191
Conclusion 205
Contents vii
8 Conclusion 213
Introduction 213
The Near Future 218
Postscript 225
Bibliography 227
Index 253
Abbreviations
xi
List of Tables
xiii
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
This book takes as its starting point the most discernible pattern in inter-
national relations that has been observed throughout the millennia—the
rise and fall of great powers. The question that presents itself today is
whether we are witnessing the demise of American preponderance and a
return to a competitive bipolar system with the USA and China as the two
main protagonists? As far back as the fifth century B.C., Herodotus had
noticed this waxing and waning of wealth and power, such that ‘the cities
that were formerly great, have most of them become insignificant; and
such as are at present powerful, were weak in olden time’.1 But more than
this, the strongest state in the system will seek to establish an international
environment that favours itself and its allies, but such arrangements have,
thus far, never been permanent in nature. The growth in strength of a
hitherto less powerful state, it is argued, will lead to that state challenging
the prevailing international conditions that favour others at the expense
of its own ambitions. At some point, the status quo will be challenged by
the rising power. This usually occurs when the costs of confronting the
status quo powers and disrupting the international order are outweighed
by the benefits of reconfiguring such international arrangements—‘those
actors who benefit most from a change in the social system and who gain
the power to effect such change will seek to alter the system in ways that
favour their interests’.2
that is now worldwide in its nature, the objective of which is the facilitation
of a global free market. Whether the USA can use the global institutions
and rules created at its instigation to prevent the rapid rise of a challenger
is the key question that this book sets itself. In so doing, the book traces
the post-war economic recovery arguing that the USA was rather
successful at preventing the rise of a new challenger amongst its allies, but
whether it can repeat this success in relation to China is yet to be seen.
others’ and ‘makes it hard for them to leave’ thus promoting ever greater
economic integration.7
Certainly, throughout the period since the Second World War, the
USA has been highly interventionist in terms of relatively short-term
military campaigns—a trait that has only strengthened in recent decades.
Moreover, as Rosemary Foot and Andrew Walter’s excellent analysis high-
lights, when it deems it in its interest, the USA often plays fast and loose
with regard to the very international norms and agreements that it was
instrumental in establishing.8 Yet, the form of American Empire is mark-
edly different because it is not an empire of territory, but an empire of
capital.9 The objective is to create an international order based on the free
flow of goods and capital. Rather than seeking to achieve long-term
possession of others’ territory (at least after its initial expansionist phase),
the objective has been to promote unfettered access to goods, resources
and labour through the market, providing equal access for both ‘national’
and international capital.
Although the open economic system that the USA established certainly
helped prevent antagonistic blocs within its sphere of influence, it was
also very much in its interest to develop an open economic order because
at the time it possessed a competitive advantage in almost every eco-
nomic sphere. The position of the USA was therefore akin to that of the
UK’s during its period of hegemonic dominance which, at the time, had
reduced its tariffs on imported manufactures to zero, despite tariffs being
retained by the other major powers.10 Similarly, the UK endeavoured to
establish a degree of multilateralism into its trading arrangements when,
in 1860, it signed the Cobden-Chevalier Treaty based on the principle of
most favoured nation status (MFN), that is, if either country agreed to
tariff reductions with a third party, these concessions would automatically
be granted to the signatories of the treaty.11
Yet, this principle was not applied extensively, and by the inter-war years,
the international economic order had dissolved into a series of economic
blocs based upon bilateral or regional trade agreements. After the Second
World War, the USA set about establishing financial, trade and security
regimes based on multilateralism. It is this unique combination of this
principle of multilateralism embodied in a set of global institutions and
absence of long-term territorial acquisition that sets the American hege-
monic order apart from all others. Although Britain promoted an order
based upon free trade, it did not purposefully set out to establish a set of
institutions that were global in scope and based on a foundational code
CHINA’S CHALLENGE TO US SUPREMACY 5
must rely upon the regulations of the WTO to influence China’s eco-
nomic behaviour. If WTO regulations were successfully applied, the rise
of a challenger might be contained or arrested. But the application of
these regulations also presents some difficulties. Companies/states have
been somewhat reluctant to take cases because of their desire to maintain
good relations with a country that has such cheap labour sources and such
a promising domestic market. Certain legal aspects of WTO regulations
are inherently weak, for example, concerning intellectual property rights,
foreign companies have to initially make a case in the domestic courts of
the country concerned. Finally, the main sanction available to member
states under WTO regulations is the imposition of punitive tariff rates.
But increasing levels of vertical FDI and the slicing up of the production
chain by MNCs has made this sanction more difficult to implement. For
example, foreign invested companies now account for more than half of
China’s exports. If such sanctions have the effect of injuring the economic
activity of the MNCs themselves, the regulations become self-defeating.
It is therefore argued that, at times, the conflicting demands arising from
the economic imperative and security imperative of the USA create cer-
tain tensions within policy-making. Indeed the major industrialised states
have assiduously promoted the development of China as a platform for their
lower-end production processes and a new market for goods and investment.
From the mid-eighties, the World Bank and individual OECD countries
have provided $200 billion in loans in order to help build the infrastructure
to support such an industrial transformation.20 Moreover, it is now a main
destination for foreign direct investment. Yet, at the same time, the USA is
shoring up its alliances with China’s neighbours and concentrating its strate-
gic focus on the region through its pivot to Asia. The tensions outlined may
be managed if the USA assiduously uses the institutions, norms and regula-
tions it has established through its structural power to manage China’s rise,
the subject of which is addressed in this book.
‘two logics’ approach (here presented as the two central dynamics) is not
an appropriate framework for analysing US hegemony because it constitutes
‘a distinctly new form of political rule. Instead of aiming for territorial
expansion along the lines of the old empires, US military interventions
abroad were primarily aimed at preventing the closure of particular places
or whole regions of the globe to capital accumulation’.28 This description
of US hegemony chimes with the one set out in this book; however, one
should not throw the baby out with the bath water. Although the long-
term possession (rather than indirect control/influence) of other territo-
rial spaces as an aspect of power acquisition has by and large subsided, the
inter-state competition and the drive to sustain or increase relative power
(rather than territory per se) in an anarchic environment has not.
In the contemporary era, inter-state competition manifests itself in
terms of relative power rather than long-term territorial acquisition. Of
course, this focus on the two main dynamics does not imply that other
social phenomena do not have an impact upon international relations.
The competition between class fractions was very significant during the
Bretton Woods crisis with many of the solutions favouring the American
financiers over industrialists. Similarly, inter-class relations are of impor-
tance; for example, Arrighi’s point that capital-labour relations were an
important aspect in the economic crisis of the seventies—strong unions
initially (until outflows of capital significantly weakened organised labour)
impeded attempts by companies to overcome a decline in their rate of
profit in their usual manner (i.e. cutting labour costs)—is very valid. In
addition, contingent factors can play a major part in conjunctural events
(‘a space of time within which a particular combination … of causes exer-
cises a predominant [causal and imaginative] influence over the course of
events and the production of ideas’) such as during the economic crisis
of the seventies.29 For example, the Yom Kippur war and the subsequent
hike in oil prices certainly exacerbated the economic problems during
that period.
With regard to the inter-capitalist dynamic, this arises from the hori-
zontal antagonism between various capitals.30 Inter-firm competition
produces a tendency for the rate of return on investment to decline
despite the tendency for each firm to pursue a maximisation of its profits.
The appearance of a new competitor with the newest technology and/
or the replacement of outdated fixed capital by an established firm allow
them to lower their prices as a result of these cost-reducing technologies.
In mature market conditions, other firms respond to the ability of the
CHINA’S CHALLENGE TO US SUPREMACY 11
capital they have accrued over time thus producing the twin conditions of
over-accumulation and overcapacity.
The responses of firms to such conditions vary, but they often include
extracting greater profit from cost-cutting with regard to circulating capi-
tal: increases in labour productivity; wage reductions; and cheaper raw
materials and intermediate goods. But it may also involve innovation
in new consumer products and the opening up of new investment and
consumer markets overseas. In Harvey’s felicitous phrase, the latter geo-
graphical displacement provides a spatio-temporal fix for capital.35 The
opening of new markets can temporarily overcome the problem of over-
capacity and the tendency for the overall rate of profit to fall—investment
in new production sites not only provides an outlet for surplus capital,
the overseas sites become sources of über-cheap labour and land, but also
embeds production in potentially new consumer markets for the goods
produced.36
This spatio-temporal fix to the crisis of capitalism in the seventies tended
to involve an outflow of goods and capital to other countries, providing
an opportunity of technological catch-up through this uneven and com-
bined development. This ‘fix’ therefore confronts vanguard states with
the possibility of future challenges as the economic development of other
countries provides these rising states with the economic and technologi-
cal wherewithal to improve their military base. This has the potential of
supercharging inter-state competition, which in itself may induce states
to further intensify their economic development. In order to manage this
dynamic, the USA has attempted to use its structural power to develop
an international architecture that integrates states into a global economic
system while at the same time making it difficult for a challenger to arise
by defending its pre-eminence across several spheres of economic activity.
Such spatio-temporal fixes provide less economically developed states
with an opportunity—states that produce the right domestic conditions
to harness these capital outflows from the core may be able to take advan-
tage of their economic backwardness through technological leapfrogging.
Using the scientific knowledge and technology of the vanguard states,
peripheral states may be able to either pass through various stages of tech-
nological development with a rapidity hitherto unseen or actually bypass
stages altogether. These late interlopers can thus combine the ‘privilege
of historic backwardness’ with the advantages of cheap land and labour,
thereby greatly exacerbating the aforementioned tendencies.37 Spatio-
temporal fixes may spur the economic growth of a relatively weaker
CHINA’S CHALLENGE TO US SUPREMACY 13
economy, but this is often combined with policies of the recipient state
that are targeted towards increasing its relative power economically and
militarily.38 The ‘whip of external necessity’ may therefore induce industri-
ally developing states to create highly conducive economic conditions for
their industries, providing subsidies, cheap credit, protected markets (in
specific production lines), research and development and, last but by no
means least, an undervalued currency.39 Moreover, inter-state and inter-
capitalist dynamics also combine to exacerbate tensions at the interna-
tional level. The solution for capitalism turns out to be a problem for the
vanguard states. The overseas investment alongside technology transfer
and domestic developmental policies leads to the economic and military
rise of these previously peripheral states and possibly a new round of inter-
state competition.
With regard to this inter-state competition, Realists and Neo-Realists alike
argue that one of the primary functions of the state is to protect itself from
the potential predation of others. The lack of any supranational authority
leads to an ‘unresolvable uncertainty’ with regard to the long-term inten-
tions of other states and there is no legal assurance that states will be bound
by their international commitments.40 Under such conditions of anarchy,
‘the dominant goal of states is security, since to pursue whatever other goals
they may have, they first must survive’.41 Moreover, it is argued that states
must therefore be sensitive to the long-term effect of economic coopera-
tion on their relative power in relation to all other states. They should not
therefore normally enter into arrangements that could lead to a long-term
decline in their economic standing vis-à-vis other states.
Although territorial acquisition may be less important in the contem-
porary world, significant benefits accrue from being the architect of an
international order that favours one’s own state, and as Robert Gilpin
has pointed out, ‘those actors who benefit most from a change in the
social system and who gain the power to effect such change will seek to
alter the system in ways that favour their interests’.42 The growth in a
state’s capabilities may therefore mean that the balance between the costs
of challenging the lead state and the benefits accruing from changing the
international architecture alter to such a degree that it calculates that such
actions are worthwhile. Thus far, the USA has successfully managed the
rise of other states through its global architecture to ensure that no such
challenger has arisen.
After the Second World War, America became the main security guaran-
tor not only for NATO members but also to a raft of other states through
14 J.G. GLENN
manner nor were the policies always directly coercive. However, it did
create an environment in which the domestic economic policy making
of other states was highly restricted. Indeed, in hindsight, it is now clear
that the effect of US policy was to create a status quo situation with other
highly industrialised states, that is, relative economic gains vis-à-vis the
USA were effectively curbed. On the other hand, weaker developing states
found that their high levels of debt were used as political leverage to open
them up to exports and capital from the core industrialised countries.
Although the above description of the USA as a reflexive hegemon
implies an unparalleled degree of knowledge acquisition through surveil-
lance and continual policy evolution, it does not imply complete omni-
science or omnipotence. Despite the enormous structural power of the
USA, much depends upon how well it plays the international game of
producing economic opportunities for its companies while ensuring its
relative economic standing does not dwindle to such an extent that a chal-
lenger emerges. China has proved quite adept at avoiding certain aspects
of US agenda setting; for example, it has been able to forestall signing
the WTO agreement on government procurement. In many cases, it has
also been able to counter US power in relation to trade, investment, and
intellectual property rights because so many foreign companies have a
vested interest in ensuring China remains open for business. Moreover,
although the USA continually employs its power alongside a huge array
of surveillance techniques, this does not automatically imply that it always
has a clear blueprint or coherent plan for the future—much depends on
the nature and speed of events that unfold. Compare for example the
quite deliberate (yet negotiated) future plans for international order in
1944/45 to the rapidly evolving events of 1971–5.
Most importantly, changes in the nature of hegemony may ramify out
across the international system, provoke different responses, and have
unintended consequences. The book distinguishes itself by arguing that
one of the most important aspects for China’s growth was the reaction
of East Asia to the USA’s new economic foreign policy. This book argues
that recognition of this is key to understanding the rapid rise of China.
In response to industrial overcapacity and a decline in the rate of profit the
highly industrialised states began to slice up the production chain and in
so doing sought out new production sites particularly for labour-intensive
low-tech production and assembly. In East Asia this trend became super-
charged as a result of the trading restraints placed upon them by the
USA followed by Europe. In order to avoid the quantitative restrictions
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PLATE LXIV
——— ———
Calopogon pulchellus. Orchis Family (p. 17).
Scape.—Rising about one foot from a small solid bulb. Leaf.—Linear, grass-
like. Flowers.—Two to six on each scape, purple-pink, about one inch broad, the lip
as if hinged at its insertion, bearded toward the summit with white, yellow, and
purple hairs. The peculiarity of this orchid is that the ovary is not twisted, and
consequently the lip is on the upper instead of the lower side of the flower.
One may hope to find these bright flowers growing side by side
with the glistening sundew in the rich bogs of early summer. Mr.
Baldwin assigns still another constant companion to the Calopogon,
an orchid which staggers under the terrifying title of Pogonia
ophioglossoides. The generic name of Calopogon is from two Greek
words signifying beautiful beard and has reference to the delicately
bearded lip.
——— ———
Rhododendron Rhodora. Heath Family.
A shrub from one to three feet high. Leaves.—Narrowly oblong, light green.
Flowers.—Deep pink, in lateral clusters. Calyx.—Five-parted. Corolla.—Five-lobed,
between wheel and bell-shaped, with stamens caught in its depressions as in the
mountain laurel. Stamens.—Ten. Pistil.—One.
This low shrub grows abundantly with the mountain laurel,
bearing smaller deep pink flowers at the same season, and narrower,
paler leaves. It is said to be the most poisonous of the genus, and to
be especially deadly to sheep, while deer are supposed to feed upon
its leaves with impunity.
American Cranberry.
Vaccinium macrocarpon. Heath Family.
Adder’s Mouth.
Pogonia ophioglossoides. Orchis Family (p. 17).
Stem.—Six to nine inches high, from a fibrous root. Leaves.—An oval or lance-
oblong one near the middle of the stem, and a smaller or bract-like one near the
terminal flower, occasionally one or two others, with a flower in their axils. Flower.
—Pale pink, sometimes white, sweet-scented, one inch long, lip bearded and
fringed.
Mr. Baldwin maintains that there is no wild flower of as pure a
pink as this unless it be the Sabbatia. Its color has also been
described as a “peach-blossom red.” As already mentioned, the plant
is found blossoming in bogs during the early summer in company
with the Calopogons and sundews. Its violet-like fragrance greatly
enhances its charm.
Common Milkwort.
Polygala sanguinea. Milkwort Family.
Stem.—Six inches to a foot high, sparingly branched above, leafy to the top.
Leaves.—Oblong-linear. Flowers.—Growing in round or oblong heads which are
somewhat clover-like in appearance, bright pink or almost red, occasionally paler.
Calyx.—Of five sepals, three of which are small and often greenish, while the two
inner ones are much larger and colored like the petals. Corolla.—Of three petals
connected with each other, the lower one keel-shaped. Stamens.—Six or eight.
Pistil.—One. (Flowers too difficult to be analyzed by the non-botanist.)
This pretty little plant abounds in moist and also sandy places,
growing on mountain heights as well as in the salt meadows which
skirt the sea. In late summer its bright flower-heads gleam vividly
through the grasses, and from their form and color might almost be
mistaken for pink clover. Occasionally they are comparatively pale
and inconspicuous.
——— ———
Polygala polygama. Milkwort Family.
Fringed Polygala.
Polygala paucifolia. Milkwort Family.
MILKWORT.
Moss Polygala.
Polygala cruciata. Milkwort Family.
Stems.—Three to ten inches high, almost winged at the angles, with spreading
opposite leaves and branches. Leaves.—Linear, nearly all whorled in fours.
Flowers.—Greenish or purplish-pink, growing in short, thick spikes which
terminate the branches.
There is something very moss-like in the appearance of this little
plant which blossoms in late summer. It is found near moist places
and salt marshes along the coast, being very common in parts of New
England.
SPREADING DOGBANE.—A.
androsæmifolium.
Purple-flowering Raspberry.
Rubus odoratus. Rose Family.
PURPLE-FLOWERING RASPBERRY.—
R. odoratus.
This flower betrays its relationship to the wild rose, and might
easily be mistaken for it, although a glance at the undivided leaves
would at once correct such an error. The plant is a decorative one
when covered with its showy blossoms, constantly arresting our
attention along the wooded roadsides in June and July.
Pale Corydalis.
Corydalis glauca. Fumitory Family.
Stem.—Six inches to two feet high. Leaves.—Pale, divided into delicate leaflets.
Flowers.—Pink and yellow, in loose clusters. Calyx.—Of two small, scale-like
sepals. Corolla.—Pink, tipped with yellow; closed and flattened, of four petals, with
a short spur at the base of the upper petal. Stamens.—Six, maturing before the
pistil, thus avoiding self-fertilization. Pistil.—One.
From the rocky clefts in the summer woods springs the pale
corydalis, its graceful foliage dim with a whitish bloom, and its
delicate rosy, yellow-tipped flowers betraying by their odd flat
corollas their kinship with the Dutchman’s breeches and squirrel
corn of the early year, as well as with the bleeding hearts of the
garden. Thoreau assigns them to the middle of May, and says they
are “rarely met with,” which statement does not coincide with the
experience of those who find the rocky woodlands each summer
abundantly decorated with their fragile clusters.
The generic name, Corydalis, is the ancient Greek title for the
crested lark, and said to refer to the crested seeds of this genus. The
specific title, glauca, refers to the pallor of leaves and stem.
The golden corydalis, C. aurea, is found on rocky banks
somewhat westward.
Common Milkweed.
Asclepias Cornuti. Milkweed Family.
Herb Robert.
Geranium Robertianum. Geranium Family.
Tick-trefoil.
Desmodium Canadense. Pulse Family (p. 16).
Tick-Trefoil.
Desmodium nudiflorum. Pulse Family (p. 16).
Deptford Pink.
Dianthus Armeria. Pink Family.
One or two feet high. Leaves.—Opposite, long and narrow, hairy. Flowers.—
Pink, with white dots, clustered. Calyx.—Five-toothed, cylindrical, with awl-shaped
bracts beneath. Corolla.—Of five small petals. Stamens.—Ten. Pistil.—One, with
two styles.
In July and August we find these little flowers in our eastern
fields. The generic name, which signifies Jove’s own flower, hardly
applies to these inconspicuous blossoms. Perhaps it was originally
bestowed upon D. caryophyllus, a large and fragrant English
member of the genus, which was the origin of our garden carnation.
Purple Loosestrife.
Lythrum Salicaria. Loosestrife Family.
One who has seen an inland marsh in August aglow with this
beautiful plant, is almost ready to forgive the Old Country some of
the many pests she has shipped to our shores in view of this radiant
acquisition. The botany locates it anywhere between Nova Scotia and
Delaware. It may be seen in the perfection of its beauty along the
marshy shores of the Hudson and in the swamps of the Wallkill
Valley.
When we learn that these flowers are called “long purples,” by
the English country people, the scene of Ophelia’s tragic death rises
before us:
There is a willow grows aslant a brook,
That shows his hoar leaves in the glassy stream,
There with fantastic garlands did she come,
Of crow-flowers, nettles, daisies, and long purples
That liberal shepherds give a grosser name,
But our cold maids do dead men’s fingers call them.
Meadow-beauty. Deer-grass.
Rhexia Virginica. Melastoma Family.