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How Population Change Will Transform Our World
How
Population
Change Will
Transform Our
World
Sarah Harper
1
1
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, ox2 6dp,
United Kingdom
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of
Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries
© Sarah Harper 2016
The moral rights of the author have been asserted
First edition published in 2016
Impression: 1
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the
prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted
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rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the
above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
address above
You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Data available
Library of Congress Control Number: 2015959820
ISBN 978–0–19–878409–8
Printed in Great Britain by
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Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
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contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
For Imogen
Foreword
ac knowledg ement s | ix
Contents
Afterword176
Appendices179
Notes and References198
Index233
content s | xi
List of Figures
80
60
40
20
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0–14 15–64 65+
80
60
40
20
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0–14 15–64 65+
fig 1 The age composition for advanced economies (a), emerging economies (b),
and least developed economies (c)
The demographic drivers of change
Birth rate
Natural
increase
Death rate
Time
Three lives . . .
The astute dentist says very sensibly: “If there is any money to be
made out of me, why not make it myself? If there is any gossip to be
told about me, why not tell it myself? If modesty restrains me from
praising myself as highly as I should expect a biographer to praise
me, prudence dictates the ignoring of circumstances which an
indiscreet biographer might drag into the light. I am, to say the least,
as safe in my own hands as I should be in anybody else’s; and I
shall, moreover, enjoy the pleasure dearest to the heart of man, the
pleasure of talking about myself in the terms that suit me best.”
Perhaps it is this open-hearted enjoyment which communicates
itself to the reader, if he has a generous disposition, and likes to see
other people have a good time. Even the titles of certain
autobiographical works are saturated with self-appreciation. We can
see the august simper with which a great lady in the days of Charles
the Second headed her manuscript: “A True Relation of the Birth,
Breeding and Life of Margaret Cavendish, Duchess of Newcastle.
Written by Herself.” Mr. Theodore Dreiser’s “A Book About Myself”
sounds like nothing but a loud human purr. The intimate wording of
“Margot Asquith, An Autobiography,” gives the key to all the cheerful
confidences that follow. Never before or since has any book been so
much relished by its author. She makes no foolish pretence of
concealing the pleasure that it gives her; but passes on with radiant
satisfaction from episode to episode, extracting from each in turn its
full and flattering significance. The volumes are as devoid of
revelations as of reticence. If at times they resemble the dance of the
seven veils, the reader is invariably reassured when the last veil has
been whisked aside, and he sees there is nothing behind it.
The happiness of writing an autobiography which is going to be
published and read is a simple and comprehensible emotion. Before
books were invented, men carved on stone something of a
vainglorious nature about themselves, and expected their subjects,
or their neighbours, to decipher it. But there is a deeper and subtler
gratification in writing an autobiography which seeks no immediate
public, and contents itself with the expression of a profound and
indulged egotism. Marie Bashkirtseff has been reproached for
making the world her father confessor; but the reproach seems
hardly justified in view of the fact that the “Journal,” although “meant
to be read,” was never thrust by its author upon readers, and was
not published until six years after her death. She was, although
barely out of girlhood, as complex as Mrs. Asquith is simple and
robust. She possessed, moreover, genuine intellectual and artistic
gifts. The immensity of her self-love and self-pity (she could be more
sorry for her own troubles than anybody who ever lived) steeped her
pages in an ignoble emotionalism. She was often unhappy; but she
revelled in her unhappiness, and summoned the Almighty to give it
his serious attention. Her overmastering interest in herself made
writing about herself a secret and passionate delight.
There must always be a different standard for the confessions
which, like Rousseau’s, are made voluntarily to the world, and the
confessions which, like Mr. Pepys’s, are disinterred by the world from
the caches where the confessants concealed them. Not content with
writing in a cipher, which must have been a deal of trouble, the great
diarist confided his most shameless passages to the additional cover
of Spanish, French, Greek and Latin, thus piquing the curiosity of a
public which likes nothing better than to penetrate secrets and rifle
tombs. He had been dead one hundred and twenty-two years before
the first part of his diary was printed. Fifty years later, it was
considerably enlarged. One hundred and ninety years after the
garrulous Secretary of the Admiralty had passed into the eternal
silences, the record of his life (of that portion of it which he deemed
worth recording) was given unreservedly to English readers. The
“Diary” is what it is because of the manner of the writing. Mr. Lang
says that of all who have gossiped about themselves, Pepys alone
tells the truth. Naturally. If one does not tell the truth in a Greek
cipher, when shall the truth be told?
The severe strictures passed by George Eliot upon
autobiographies are directed against scandal-mongering no less
than against personal outpourings. She could have had the English-
speaking world for a confidant had she consented to confide to it; but
nothing was less to her liking. She objected to “volunteered and
picked confessions,” as in their nature insincere, and also as
conveying, directly or indirectly, accusations against others. Her
natural impulse was to veil her own soul—which was often sick and
sore—from scrutiny; and, being a person of limited sympathies, she
begrudged her neighbour the privilege of exhibiting his soul, sores
and all, to the public. The struggle of human nature “to bury its
lowest faculties,” over which she cast unbroken silence, is what the
egotist wants to reveal, and the public wants to observe. When
Nietzsche says debonairly of himself, “I have had no experience of
religious difficulties, and have never known what it was to feel sinful,”
the statement, though probably untrue, creates at once an
atmosphere of flatness. It is what Walt Whitman ardently admired in
beasts—
“They do not lie awake in the dark, and weep for their sins,
They do not make me sick discussing their duty to God.”