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Currency Internationalization
and Macro Financial Risk Control
International Monetary Institute, Renmin University of China
Currency Internationalization and Macro Financial
Risk Control
International Monetary Institute
Currency
Internationalization
and Macro Financial
Risk Control
Editor
International Monetary Institute
Renmin University of China
Beijing, China
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Singapore Pte Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2018
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Preface
The year 2015 was an eventful year. After the Federal Reserve officially
started the interest rate increase, the dollar index continued to rise, dollar
assets were sought after by many, international capital flow experienced
large-scale adjustment, and China faced an increasingly sharp pressure of
capital outflow. Refugee crisis slowed down the economic recovery in
Europe, the risk of “British Exit” further increased the uncertainty of its
prospects, and the European Central Bank announced to implement the
negative interest rate policy. Since the EU is China’s largest trading part-
ner, a substantial depreciation of the euro hit heavily the export trade of
China. Such international circumstances worsened the Chinese economy
which was itself in a difficult transformation. For one thing, issues includ-
ing over-capacity, decline in private investment, and non-performing bank
assets have become increasingly prominent. For another, the domestic
financial market was in turmoil: the first half of the year witnessed the
stock market disaster propelled by high leverage and private funding, end-
ing up with an market value evaporation of over 20 trillion yuan; and the
second half experienced a panic exchange rate overshoot in the foreign
exchange market, and a cliff-like liquidity crunch of the offshore renminbi
market. Domestic and international confidence in China’s economic
growth and financial stability has been shaken.
RMB internationalization still maintained a good momentum. By the
end of 2015, the international use of RMB index marked by the RII
reached 3.6, an increase of over ten times over the past five years. The ratio
of RMB settlement in China’s foreign trade was nearly 30%, and that in
global trade was pushed up to 3.38%. RMB foreign direct investment
v
vi PREFACE
crisis and provide a fundamental guarantee for the steady growth of the
real economy and the ultimate realization of RMB internationalization.
The international financial classic theories hold that the monetary
authorities of an open economy can only choose two out of the three
macro-financial policy objectives, namely, the independence of monetary
policy, the fixed exchange rate system, and the complete free flow of capi-
tal. The history of Germany and Japan shows that in the process of the
climbing level of currency internationalization, the monetary authority
must adjust policy objectives to major changes in cross-border capital
flows and exchange rate regimes. Germany and Japan launched interna-
tionalization of their currencies from similar starting points, but the differ-
ent decisions on policy adjustment have had profound but distinct impact
on the domestic economy and finance, resulting in the opposite results of
currency internationalization of the two countries.
At the initial stage of currency internationalization, Germany regarded
exchange rate stabilization as its primary target. It even resorted to the
measures including capital controls, the suspension of financial market
development, and the use of foreign exchange reserves for market inter-
vention. As a result, it created favorable external conditions for maintain-
ing the advantages in trade, enhancing industrial production
competitiveness, and consolidating the domestic development of the real
economy, and provided a strong support for the long-term stability of the
mark exchange rates. Japan was too radical because it over-estimated the
ability of its real economy in coping with the impact of the appreciation of
the exchange rate, thus failing to keep the yen exchange rates stable.
Coupled with the mistakes made in internal macro-economic policies,
Japan has fundamentally undermined its real economy, making the inter-
national level of yen temporarily rise before the sharp decline.
The level of RMB internationalization has improved steadily in recent
years, and will embark on a new stage of development after joining the
currency basket. This marks that China has entered a sensitive period of
policy adjustments in the area of macro-management. The difference in
the policy adjustment that Germany and Japan made and the distinct
impact on the currency internationalization provide us with an important
historical lesson. The experience of the two countries reminds us that
China should not implement policy adjustment too speedily; rather, the
exchange rates and capital account can be liberalized only after the real
economy, financial market, and management departments are fully
prepared.
viii PREFACE
xiii
xiv CONTENTS
Fig. 1.1 The RII. Note: RII has been subject to the following
adjustments. (1) Offshore market has developed rapidly, and
the statistics system about renminbi assets improved. Our
indicators of RMB international credit include not only the
former statistics about the mainland and Hong Kong, but
also statistics about Macau, Taiwan, Singapore, and London.
(2) Chinese International Balance of Payments Statistics
shifted to BPM6 standard in 2015; as a result, the caliber
about direct investment included in RII shifted from BPM5
standard to BPM6 standard. (3) RII is modified along with
the statistical adjustment of the raw statistics 3
Fig. 1.2 RII quarter annual growth 3
Fig. 1.3 Cross-border trades settled in RMB 11
Fig. 1.4 Comprehensive index for RMB-denominated international
financial settlement. Note: The comprehensive index for
RMB-denominated international financial settlement consists
of the proportion of RMB overseas credit in international
credit, the proportion of RMB security in announced
issuance of international bonds and notes, the proportion of
RMB security in amounts outstanding international bonds
and notes, and the proportion of RMB direct investment in
international direct investment 13
Fig. 1.5 RMB’s proportion in international credit 13
Fig. 1.6 Global RMB direct investment 14
Fig. 1.7 The comprehensive index of RMB international bonds and
notes16
xv
xvi List of Figures
Fig. 2.18 Exchange rate and price difference of onshore and offshore
RMB. (Source: Wind) 61
Fig. 2.19 Daily closing prices of RMB NDF in the 2014–2015 period.
(Source: Wind) 63
Fig. 3.1 The trend of China’s de facto capital account liberalization.
(Source: IMF) 97
Chart 3.3 The 1997 non-resident holdings of government bonds in
G10 (10%). (Source: Bank of Japan, Murase, Tetsuji (2000)
“The Internationalization of the Yen: Essential Issues
Overlook”, Pacific Economic Papers, No. 307) 104
Chart 3.4 Dependence on the trade with the United States. (Data
source: Calculation based on statistics of UN Comtrade) 107
Fig. 3.2 Export price elasticity and the selection of settlement
currency in export trade. (Data source: Bekx (1998), Oi et al.
(2003), CEIC database) 112
Fig. 3.3 The proportion of RMB settlement in total trade. (Data
source: People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Commerce) 114
Fig. 3.4 Comparison of China’s and Japan’s dependence on trade
with the United States. (Data source: Calculation according
to statistics on UN Comtrade) 115
Chart 4.1 “Trilemma” triangle 132
Chart 4.2 Currency internationalization and changes in economic
indicators: the experience of Germany and Japan. (Data
source: CEIC) 139
Chart 4.3 Unilateral appreciation’s impact on economy: Japan and
China. (Source: CEIC) 142
Graph 5.1 Trend of the exchange rate against USD and EUR 157
Graph 5.2 Trend of stock market and bond market 158
Graph 5.3 RMB exchange rate index 166
Graph 5.4 The effective exchange rate and total value of retail sales of
social consumption goods 167
Graph 5.5 The real exchange rate and investment 168
Graph 5.6 Capital flow in international balance account 176
Graph 5.7 The real and nominal exchange rate 176
Fig. 6.1 Four stages of Chinese capital account opening (1979–2015) 201
Fig. 6.2 Dynamic correlation coefficients between capital flow and
capital market yield volatility. (Before the August 11th
reform)209
Fig. 6.3 Dynamic correlation coefficients between capital flow and
capital market yield volatility. (After the August 11th reform) 210
Fig. 7.1 Proportion of overseas assets of commercial banks 213
Fig. 7.2 Proportion of overseas profits of commercial banks. (Data
Source: Annual Reports of Banks) 213
xviii List of Figures
xxi
xxii List of Tables
3.87
4 3.60
2.76
3 2.52 2.48
2.30 2.36
2.10
2 1.64
1.14
0.95 1.11
1
0
2013 2014 2015
Fig. 1.1 The RII. Note: RII has been subject to the following adjustments. (1)
Offshore market has developed rapidly, and the statistics system about renminbi
assets improved. Our indicators of RMB international credit include not only the
former statistics about the mainland and Hong Kong, but also statistics about
Macau, Taiwan, Singapore, and London. (2) Chinese International Balance of
Payments Statistics shifted to BPM6 standard in 2015; as a result, the caliber about
direct investment included in RII shifted from BPM5 standard to BPM6 standard.
(3) RII is modified along with the statistical adjustment of the raw statistics
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2013 2014 2015
Firstly, Chinese economy remained stable on the whole and financial reform
was advanced smoothly. In 2015, although faced with downward pressure,
China remained one of the most stable economies, which laid a solid devel-
opment foundation for RMB’s internationalization. As a flagship of emerg-
ing markets, China boasted a GDP growth rate of 6.9%, one of the fastest
in the world; China reinforced structural reforms, kept its monetary poli-
cies robust, and its economic and financial system remained resilient against
risks, all of which provided RMB’s internationalization with sustaining
momentum; the current account realized a surplus of $293.2 billion with a
year-on-year growth rate of 33.5%, overseas direct investment (ODI)
increased by 14.7% year-on-year, the international payments account stayed
balanced basically, and cross-border capital outflow converged to the fun-
damentals. As for the financial reforms, China seized the opportunity to lift
the ceiling of floating interest rate of commercial bank and rural coopera-
tive financial institutions and canceled the interest rate control; improved
the regime of central parity rate of RMB; increased the liberalization level
of exchange rate; and narrowed the difference between central parity rate
and market exchange rate and between onshore and offshore exchange
rate. Meanwhile, the publishing of China Foreign Exchange Trade System
(CFETS), the improvement of People’s Bank of China (PBOC) exchange
rate market management, and the maneuver against the short-selling of
RMB abroad helped the market expectations to return to a rational level.
By encouraging innovation and following successful patterns nationwide,
the RMB convertibility under the capital account was advanced smoothly.
The RMB’s admission to the SDR basket represented the acknowledgment
to China’s monetary financial reform by the international community.
Secondly, the policies of RMB cross-border business under capital account
improved. Although the volatility of financial market both at home and
abroad was heightened and the stress of capital outflow increased, China
still made outstanding progress on the policies of the RMB cross-border
under capital account, which broadened the backflow channels of RMB,
optimized the capital allocation, and supported the real economy. In
2015, China relaxed external debt regulations of enterprises and the
two-way cross-border RMB cash pooling, which improved the
independence and convenience of cross-border financing; China permit-
ted foreign currency authorities, official reserve managers, global finan-
cial organizations, and sovereign wealth funds to enter China’s interbank
market and conduct foreign exchange business including spot, forward,
swap and options transactions, which improved the representative of
RMB exchange rate and enhanced the function of international reserve;
INTERNATIONALIZATION INDEX OF RENMINBI 5
Armenia, South Africa, Chile, and Tajikistan separately. The domestic free
trade area and financial experimental zone were constructed at high speed,
which helped to further consolidate the RMB function of payment, settle-
ment, investment, and financing. In addition, on the 40th anniversary of
establishment of diplomatic ties between China and EU, their financial
cooperation continued its positive momentum: European Union became
the largest trade partner, the most important source of imported technol-
ogy, and a great investment cooperation partner for China; the business
cooperation scale between China and EU in 2015 reached $169.2 billion;
the top leaders of both sides made frequent visits to each other, which
helped to enhance the dialogues on economy and finance, supported the
development of offshore RMB market, and deepened the cooperation on
market access, cross-border securities regulation, investment platform, and
supporting facilities. At the same time, RMB opened the gate of Sino-
Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) cooperation: the fourth
China-CEEC Leaders Meeting was held in November; the participants
advocated the establishment of 16+1 Financial Company, discussed the
possibility of building up the China-CEEC cooperation fund, and agreed
to support the setup of RMB clearing regime, offering good external envi-
ronment for the CEEC offshore RMB market.
Fifthly, under the circumstances of the fluctuating financial market and a
stronger dollar, the use of RMB in denominating commodities became
more frequent. With the international oil price low and petrodollar tight-
ened, the level of RMB use in Middle East increased. In 2015, RMB clear-
ing center in Qatar was set up, and MOU was signed between China and
UAE, making RMB the common currency used in the payment from UAE
and Qatar to Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong, with proportions of 74%
and 60%, respectively, an annual growth rate of 52% and 247%. Serbia
started its RMB projects. The Russian acceptance of RMB constantly
improved, making RMB its third popular currency after USD and euro, and
the Moscow bourse launched ruble-denominated RMB futures trading.
London Metal Exchange accepted RMB as a pledge currency. China
(Shanghai) free trade area started cross-border RMB spot commodity trans-
action in July. The use of RMB in commodity denomination was enhanced.
Cicero[14] denominated the God of Plato the Maker, and the God of
Aristotle the Governor, of the world.[15] It is somewhere observed,
that it is no reflection on the character of Plato, to have been unable,
by the efforts of his own reason, to acquire any notion of a proper
creation; since we, who have the advantage of his writings, nay of
writings infinitely more valuable than his, to instruct us, find it
extremely difficult, if not impossible, to conceive how any thing can
first begin to have an existence. We believe the fact, on the authority
of Revelation.
Finally, it was reserved for our own age and country to derive
dignity and fame, from having given birth to an illustrious successor
and disciple of that immortal man, in the person of the yet recently-
departed Rittenhouse.
“It is to astronomy,” says Mr. Lalande, “that we are indebted for the
first voyages of the Phœnicians, and the earliest progress of industry
and commerce: it is likewise to it, that we owe the discovery of the
New World. If there remain any thing to desire for the perfection and
security of navigation, it is, to find the longitude at sea.” In
continuation, he says:—
Ovid tells us, he wished to take his flight among the stars:
In writing the life of our philosopher, the plan of a dry recital of only
such circumstances and occurrences as have an immediate relation
to the individual, has not been pursued. Biographical Memoirs, it is
conceived, do not confine a writer to limits so narrow, but permit him
to take a much greater latitude. It is even allowable, in works of this
kind, to introduce historical facts, memorable events, proceedings of
public bodies, notices of eminent men, evidences of the progress
and state of literature, science and the arts, and the actual condition
of civil society, in the scene that is contemplated; together with
occasional reflections on those and similar subjects. Some of these
objects may not seem, perhaps, to be necessarily or very intimately
connected with the principal design, the life of the person treated of:
but such of them as should, at first view, appear to have the most
remote relation to that object, may be afterwards discovered to be
both useful and interesting in a discussion of this nature; while others
serve to elucidate the main scope of the work. A latitude of this
description, in the compilation of memoirs, seems to be quite
consistent with the genius and spirit of works of that nature; and the
modern practice of memoir-writers has been conformable to this
view of the subject.[54]
The writer of the present work has therefore ventured, with all due
deference to the public opinion, to pursue the course here described.
And in doing this, he presumes that the comprehensive range he has
allowed himself has enabled him to render his memoirs, even of a
“philosopher,” not altogether barren of incidents, nor destitute, he
trusts, either of pleasing information or useful instruction.
NOTE.—The reader is requested to substitute (with his pen) the word Earth, in
the place of “Sun,” in the sixth line of the note numbered (18), page xxxii. of the
foregoing Introduction: the error in the print is an essential one; and passed
unobserved, until it was too late to correct it in the press. At the same time the
reader will be pleased to insert the word security, in the place of “scarcity,” in the
ninth line from the top of page xlii.