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PALGRAVE STUDIES IN
EUROPEAN UNION POLITICS
Series Editors: Michelle Egan, Neill Nugent
and William E. Paterson
EUROPEAN DISINTEGRATION
A Search for Explanations
Hans Vollaard
Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics
Series Editors
Michelle Egan
American University
Washington, USA
Neill Nugent
Manchester Metropolitan University
Manchester, UK
William E. Paterson
Aston University
Birmingham, UK
Following on the sustained success of the acclaimed European Union
Series, which essentially publishes research-based textbooks, Palgrave
Studies in European Union Politics publishes cutting edge research-driven
monographs. The remit of the series is broadly defined, both in terms of
subject and academic discipline. All topics of significance concerning the
nature and operation of the European Union potentially fall within the
scope of the series. The series is multidisciplinary to reflect the growing
importance of the EU as a political, economic and social phenomenon.
European
Disintegration
A Search for Explanations
Hans Vollaard
Utrecht University
Utrecht, The Netherlands
When I both started and finished writing this book, my then home town
of Leiden in the Netherlands was celebrating its relief from a Spanish-
Habsburg siege in 1574. Leiden’s relief constituted a significant boost for
an uprising that sought to defend local privileges in the Low Countries
against the influence of the centralising Habsburg Empire. Eventually, the
northern part of the Low Countries left this vast, multilayered, polycen-
tric, and multinational empire. An independent confederative republic
resulted from this “Nexit”, which was at that time a loosely organised, but
economically competitive, actor at the global level. Not least because of
the university established in Leiden in 1575 as a reward for its endurance,
the Netherlands became a centre of knowledge of military engineering,
growing tulips, protestant theology, and, also, political science. It is no
wonder that the disintegration of a large European empire is an event that
is still celebrated annually in Leiden, with two parades, aubades, music
shows, a church service, and a large fair. With a certain fervour, Leiden’s
residents sing sixteenth-century hymns that refer to a glorious fight for
freedom. All of this made me wonder whether or not similar festivities
would one day be held to commemorate the disintegration of another
vast, multilayered, polycentric, and multinational polity, the European
Union. Or would the European Union be remembered with melancholy
and regret, like the Austrian-Hungarian Empire that only seemed like a
pretty decent place to live for a wide variety of people with the benefit of
hindsight? I suppose this would depend on whether the European Union
fell apart as a result of vociferous independence movements or as a result
v
vi PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
1 Introduction 1
ix
x Contents
10 Disintegration or Not? 227
Epilogue 253
References 261
Index 263
Abbreviations
xi
xii ABBREVIATIONS
xiii
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
from the Eurozone due the pressure of the financial markets betting on
further exits. Some perceived the rescue of the Euro as essential to main-
taining the political underpinnings of the entire process of European inte-
gration. Others advocated the dissolution of the Economic and Monetary
Union (EMU), as the solution required to preserve the Euro—a sizeable
EU budget, EU taxes, and EU transfers—would only fuel the Eurosceptic
call for the dissolution of the entire EU. Some have thought of the debt
crises as just part of a series of recurring crises in the process of European
integration, whereas others have considered it to be a fundamental crisis of
European integration.
Contradictory analyses of the state of the EU and European integration
more generally have also cropped up in other discussions. Will the end of
British EU membership allow the EU to act more coherently in light of
less disagreement on issues such as the Euro, social policy, Schengen, and
foreign policy? Or would a Brexit cripple the EU’s influence in interna-
tional politics, making membership less attractive to present and future
member states? And do the attempts to constrain so-called “welfare tour-
ism” help to maintain support for the EU within the Eurosceptic parts of
the population, or do they constitute a step towards the end of the free
movement of persons in the internal market, a fundamental element of the
European integration process thus far? Is the rise of Euroscepticism at the
level of the European Parliament and some national parliaments a sign of
the end of the EU or of the growing involvement of even anti-system par-
ties and citizens in EU politics? Is a stronger EU essential to the process of
European integration, or can it do without (Zielonka, 2014)? Scenarios of
the EU’s future range from full-scale federalisation, a stronger core Europe
with some exits, muddling through with the present EU’s institutions, a
combination of the EU becoming paralysed, neglected, and obsolete, to
its complete collapse (see, for instance, European Commission, 2017;
King Baudouin Foundation et al., 2013; Krastev, 2012; Rabobank, 2017).
Confusion and contradictions are thus rife in perspectives on the course of
European (dis)integration.
Academic analysis can help us to move beyond the cursory reflections
of the day. It enables us to make explicit the various ways of thinking
about European disintegration, and it can offer us a better understanding
of the definition, indicators, factors, mechanisms, outcome and likelihood
of European disintegration. First and foremost, academic analysis helps us
to make sense of political dynamics by being selective. Theories are an
important tool in this respect. They structure our observations of
INTRODUCTION 3
difficulties than other currency areas such as the USA, why peripheral
countries such as Greece would fit less easily into the current EMU, and
why diverging economic structures may aggravate the EMU’s problems
(Eichengreen, 2010, 2012; Sadeh, 2012). OCA-based accounts may thus
point at some crucial factors that can promote the survival or (partial) dis-
solution of the EMU. Nevertheless, the OCA perspective cannot fully
explain the process of making and unmaking of what has been foremost a
political project (Eichengreen, 2012; Feldstein, 2012; McKay, 1999;
Sadeh, 2012; Sadeh & Verdun, 2009). Moreover, it cannot account for
instances of disintegration before the launch of the single currency, or for
disintegrative moves in member states that have not been fully participat-
ing in the EMU, such as the UK. For the sake of parsimony, a more
encompassing theory would therefore be preferable.
Predicting the fate of any political organisation is a daunting task, as the
case of the eminent federalism expert William Riker illustrates (McKay,
2004). In the late 1980s, he predicted that Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia,
and the Soviet Union would remain stable for the foreseeable future
because of their centralised nature. He was proven wrong soon after—as
were many other scholars. However, the benefit of hindsight does not
necessarily provide clarity either. Explanations of the inevitability and also
the extent of the disintegration of the Soviet Union—assuming it does not
still live on today as the Russian Federation—are still a matter of debate
(Motyl, 2001). This also holds true for older instances of disintegration.
Until now, at least 210 very diverse factors have been put forward to
explain the decline and fall of the ancient Roman Empire (Demandt,
1984). Explaining European disintegration, the goal of this book, will be
no less a subject of debate. Nevertheless, the overview provided in this
book not only allows us to distinguish alternative conceptualisations and
explanations of European disintegration, but also to seek the most promis-
ing one by evaluating their respective theoretical premises and empirical
strength. All explanations are derived from general theories of regional
integration and political systems. These theories are not EU specific. The
empirical evidence offered by the single case of the EU does not necessar-
ily invalidate these theories. Criticism is therefore first targeted at the theo-
ries’ premises. For example, some suffer from a biased perspective on the
outcome of disintegration. Territorial states should not be assumed to
remain the predominant political format. A development towards loosely
organised complex networks of overlapping jurisdictions is also a possibil-
ity (Zielonka, 2006). Other theories have too narrow an understanding of
INTRODUCTION 7
References
Artis, M. J. (2002). Reflections on the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criteria in
the light of EMU. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 8, 297–307.
Bartolini, S. (2005). Restructuring Europe: Centre formation, system building and
political structuring between the nation-state and the European Union. Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
Brack, N., & Startin, N. (2015). Introduction: Euroscepticism, from the margins
to the mainstream. International Political Science Review, 36(3), 239–249.
Delhey, J. (2007). Do enlargements make the European Union less cohesive? An
analysis of trust between EU nationalities. Journal of Common Market Studies,
45(2), 253–279.
8 H. VOLLAARD
Demandt, A. (1984). Der Fall Roms: Die Auflösung des Römischen Reiches in
Urteil der Nachwelt. München: C.H.Beck.
Easton, D. (1965). A framework for analysis. Englewood Cliffs, NJ:
Prentice-Hall.
Eichengreen, B. (2010). The Breakup of the Euro Area. In A. Alesina & F. Giavazzi
(Eds.), Europe and the Euro (pp. 11–55). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Eichengreen, B. (2012). European monetary integration with the benefit of hind-
sight. Journal of Common Market Studies, 50(S1), 123–136.
Eppler, A., & Scheller, H. (Eds.). (2013a). Zur Konzeptualisierung Europäischer
Desintegration. Baden-Baden: Nomos.
Eppler, A., & Scheller, H. (2013b). Zug- und Gegenkräfte im Europäischen
Integrationsprozess. In A. Eppler & H. Scheller (Eds.), Zur Konzeptualisierung
Europäischer Desintegration (pp. 11–44). Baden-Baden: Nomos.
European Commission. (2017). White paper on the future of Europe. (COM(2017)
2025 final). Brussels: European Commission.
Falkner, G. (2016). The EU’s current crisis and its policy effects: Research design
and comparative findings. Journal of European Integration, 38(3), 219–235.
Feldstein, M. (1997). EMU and international conflict. Foreign Affairs, 76(6),
60–73.
Feldstein, M. (2012). The failure of the Euro: The little currency that couldn’t.
Foreign Affairs, 91(1), 105–116.
Fossum, J. E., & Menéndez, A. J. (Eds.). (2014). The European Union in crises or
the European Union as crises?. (ARENA Report No 2/14). Oslo: Arena.
Glencross, A. (2009). What makes the EU viable? European integration in the light
of the antebellum US experience. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Jones, E. (2016). Why we need a theory of disintegration. Retrieved June 14,
2017, from https://erikjones.net/2016/11/12/why-we-need-a-theory-of-
disintegration/
King Baudoin Foundation, Bertelsmann Stiftung & European Policy Centre.
(2013). New pact for Europe: Strategic options for Europe’s future (1st report).
Retrieved September 15, 2014, from http://www.newpactforeurope.eu/
documents/1st_report_new_pact_for_europe.pdf
Krastev, I. (2012). European disintegration? A fraying Union. Journal of
Democracy, 23(4), 23–30.
Leconte, C. (2010). Understanding Euroscepticism. Basingstoke: Palgrave
Macmillan.
Leuffen, D., Rittberger, B., & Schimmelfennig, F. (2012). Differentiated integra-
tion. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
Lindberg, L. (1971). Political integration as multidimensional phenomenon
requiring multivariate measurement. In L. Lindberg & S. Scheingold (Eds.),
Regional integration: Theory and research (pp. 45–127). Cambridge, MA:
Harvard University Press.
INTRODUCTION 9
2.1 Introduction
Neo-functionalism is one of the classic theories of European integration.
Its main proponents, Ernst Haas and Leon Lindberg, launched it in the
1950s and 1960s. Emblematic of the scientific approach and theoretical
focus of the time, neo-functionalism sought to systematically explain the
causes, process, and consequences of non-coercive regional integration
across the entire world by formulating verifiable hypotheses. Since the
mid-1970s, it has often been declared defunct, mainly because it has failed
to explain the course of regional integration in Europe. Nevertheless, its
key concept of “spillover” continues to pop up, also in recent analyses of
the European Union in crisis (King Baudoin Foundation et al., 2013;
Lefkokridi & Schmitter, 2014; Niemann & Ioannou, 2015;
Schimmelfennig, 2014; Vilpišauskas, 2013). In addition, neo-functionalists
have also discussed—albeit to a limited extent—European disintegration
(Lindberg & Scheingold, 1970; Niemann & Bergmann, 2013; Schmitter,
1971). This provides more than sufficient reason to explore the potential
of neo-functionalism to explain European disintegration. After outlining
the main ideas of neo-functionalism on integration, this chapter discusses
its understanding and explanation of disintegration. An evaluation of the
potential of neo-functionalism to provide a framework for analysing
European disintegration follows. The chapter rounds off with the lessons
learned from a neo-functionalist take on European disintegration.
9.
Nikolai Parfenovitš selitti lempeästi hänelle, että hänet vie heti pois
maalaispoliisikomisarius Mavriki Mavrikijevitš, joka juuri sattuu
olemaan täällä…
Mitja oli vaiti. Hän tuli aivan punaiseksi. Hetkisen kuluttua hänen
äkkiä tuli hyvin vilu. Oli lakannut satamasta, mutta synkkää taivasta
peittivät edelleen pilvet, pureva tuuli puhalsi suoraan vasten kasvoja.
»Onkohan minulla kuumeväristyksiä», ajatteli Mitja kohauttaen
olkapäitään. Viimein kiipesi rattaille myös Mavriki Mavrikijevitš, kävi
istumaan raskaasti, leveästi ja litisti aivan kuin huomaamattaan
Mitjan hyvin ahtaalle. Totta oli, että hän oli pahalla tuulella, eikä
hänelle määrätty tehtävä ensinkään ollut hänelle mieleen.
1.
Kolja Krasotkin
2.
Lapsiparvi