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Zukunft und Forschung

Roman Peperhove · Karlheinz Steinmüller

Hans-Liudger Dienel Editors

Envisioning
Uncertain Futures
Scenarios as a Tool in Security,
Privacy and Mobility Research
Zukunft und Forschung

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Roman Peperhove · Karlheinz Steinmüller ·
Hans-Liudger Dienel
(Eds.)

Envisioning
Uncertain Futures
Scenarios as a Tool in Security,
Privacy and Mobility Research
Editors
Roman Peperhove Karlheinz Steinmüller
Berlin, Germany Berlin, Germany

Hans-Liudger Dienel
Berlin, Germany

Zukunft und Forschung

ISBN 978-3-658-25073-7 ISBN 978-3-658-25074-4 (eBook)
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Content

Foreword ................................................................................................. 9
Yair Sharan

Introduction .......................................................................................... 15
Roman Peperhove

I. Scenarios – A Methodological Tool

Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument ............................ 23

Karlheinz Steinmüller

Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An

Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight ..... 37
Robert Gaßner, Karlheinz Steinmüller

Surprising Scenarios. Imagination as a Dimension of Foresight ... 49

Aharon Hauptman, Karlheinz Steinmüller

Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for Dialogue ................. 69

Lars Gerhold, Karlheinz Steinmüller

Didactical Functions of Dark and Bright Scenarios: Examples

from the European Transport Industry ............................................. 83
Massimo Moraglio, Hans-Liudger Dienel and Robin Kellermann
6 Content

II. Scenarios in Practice

The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios:

A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies.................. 105
Liisa Luoto, Annika Lonkila

The Future of Water Use: Scenarios for Water Management in

Telangana - Strengthening Local Governance in the Minor
Irrigation Sector .................................................................................. 133
Angela Jain, Sascha Dannenberg

The Future of Water Use: Construction of the Scenarios in the

Project ................................................................................................... 143
Sascha Dannenberg, Angela Jain

“Peace Operations 2025”: From Shaping Factors to Scenarios .... 155

Björn Theis, Stefan Köppe

Anticipating New Security Threats: The FESTOS Project ............ 175

Yair Sharan

The Development of FESTOS Scenarios.......................................... 189

Roman Peperhove

The FESTOS Scenarios ....................................................................... 205

Karlheinz Steinmüller
Content 7

III. Synopsis

Reflections on how to Improve Future Scenarios .......................... 237

Roman Peperhove

Conclusion ........................................................................................... 25 7
Roman Peperhove

About the Authors ............................................................................. 263

Foreword

Yair Sharan

The term scenario appears regularly in different contexts and with different
intentions. Sometimes a scenario describes an opportunity and sometimes an
image of the future. Sometimes it demonstrates risks, sometimes an economic
situation and sometimes a smart speculation. Most people know the term itself
even though there are different interpretations. In research, a structured
development of scenarios became popular after World War II in order to be
prepared for coming challenges in the emerging bipolar world. The formerly
exclusive military usages have been replaced by a broad variety of contexts in
which scenarios play a prominent role today. However, in our increasingly
complex world it seems to be more necessary than ever to think about potential
future developments beforehand – to be aware of threats and opportunities. This
is true for economy and politics but especially for research.

In research projects it is possible to shed light on aspects which are not

yet widely recognized. Using different qualitative and quantitative methods,
researchers seek to build a complete information bank to be able to answer the
most important questions: What might the world of tomorrow look like? What
kind of challenges will we have to face in the future?

It is not possible to answer such questions easily to the satisfaction of

everybody. It is not possible to predict the future for complex and volatile
environments. It is not even possible to predict future events in closed contexts
with absolute certainty (it is, however, possible to have a surprisingly high hit
ratio…). Experts in foresight methods do not deny this fact. They might reply that
it does not diminish the need to figure out potential future events or developments.
That is: to be aware of potential future events. The questions remains, how might
it be possible to build a structured picture of a future?

One answer to this question is: by developing scenarios. Scenario

research affords a long history and is accepted in the military, the economy and
social science. Most scenario methods offer the option to develop not just one
scenario but a number of varying scenarios – for instance all shades from worst to
best-case scenarios. It is possible to depict the futures of different shapes and
characteristics including stable factors and even very unlikely events. Unlikely
events, so called wild cards, might be useful to test scenario construction or to
10 Yair Sharan

focus on uncertainties or neglected aspects of futures. Developing scenarios is thus

a combination of several steps, some of them formal and some of them innovative.
This is a kind of an out of the box thinking process – creative but convincing.

Scenarios enable researchers to deal with complex information: Either by

structuring single factors and assessing their influence on each other or by using
creative methods to gather relevant information for other possible scenarios. Either
way, scenarios are and can be seen as an analytical tool- a very powerful one. They
serve also as a communication tool between the analyzer, the researcher and the
user, the decision maker. They are not a method for data collection but data
processing and depend, therefore, heavily on the input. The quality of the input
and the skills of involved researchers influence the value of scenarios.

It is not easy, however, to combine creativity with scientific input in order

to develop scenarios. A scenario, which is not coherent, plausible, consistent,
perceivable, useable and developed transparently, will not be convincing. Such
criteria can be used for (self-) evaluation and assessment. A criterion which is not
always useful – but often quoted – to assess the quality of a scenario is likeliness
(how high is the prospect of its realization. It should be clarified here that
likelihood is actually the probability of the scenario happening. Likelihood is
perceived as a "softer" word to present this parameter rather than probability,
which is perceived as a "precise" number however small or large. A decision
maker who considers things in a more relative and qualitative context might
therefore prefer likelihoods or probabilities). However, even if a scenario is
deemed to be unlikely it might still be useful as it opens decision makers' eyes to
unsuspected events which may be important for early preparation purposes. The
decision maker is confronted with an alternative scenario and he is free to consider
and prioritize taking into account aspects like likeliness, desirability and impact.
(In this context, for example, a wild card, which is a scenario with a low
probability and high impact, will receive higher priority than a scenario which
results in low effects.)

People tend to take likely scenarios into consideration much more than
unlikely ones, even if the unlikely scenario may have a much bigger impact. From
a security perspective it is a difference that matters: Due to media coverage,
movies and books people in general overestimate the realization prospects of some
threats. Others are not present at all. New technologies and an increasing
interconnectivity between systems can lead to threats which are still under the
radar. A simple computer bug installed by a skillful terrorist or criminal can set
off a cascade of failures and breakdowns, which will result in horrific effects.
Either way, potential threats, which come along with new technologies might not
Foreword 11

be likely (yet) but can have a huge impact on societies. Summarized, it is not
always the likely scenario which should catch our attention but the unlikely ones,
especially those which will result in great consequences – the so called Wild
Cards.

This aspect is important in order to understand the scope of the FESTOS

project 1, which inspired the idea for this very book. The goal of FESTOS was
twofold- first to assess the potential misuse of future technologies, which will be
in use in our society in the coming decades. Second goal was to focus on future
threats which seem to be rather unlikely but have a high potential to have harmful
impacts on society. Most of the technologies considered are not yet available for
use today. Some of them are only in their basic research phase. However, all of
them are going to be available – perhaps sooner than people might expect. The
pace of technology development increases significantly with time. Awareness and
advanced thinking might help us avoid unwanted surprises in the future.

Several experts admitted they became aware of the potential for misuse
of evolving technologies for the first time in the context of FESTOS. This was one
of the project's objectives: raising the awareness of a wide range of experts and
policy makers to the possibilities of intentional misuse of pending technologies.
The FESTOS scenarios along with the thoroughly detailed evaluation completed
in the project intended to present various future situations to the reader. What
might be the impact of a misuse of a technology in the future? Which aspects of
the daily life would be affected? Would it have an individual dimension only or a
wide societal one? Would it be regional, national or even global?

The FESTOS project team received very positive feedback – from

researchers, decision makers and end-users in the field of security and beyond. A
number of people – although involved in the field – became aware of these kinds
of future challenges for the first time. The project team realized two important
points: First, the scenarios served the project quite well and contributed much to
the threat assessment completed and to counter policies considered. Second,
scenarios do not get the attention they deserve once a project is finished.

It was against this background that the idea for the present book emerged.
The fundamental aim of this book is to present scenarios from different projects
embedded in a practical context – scenarios should not be displayed as such but
be combined with a description of how they were developed and used. It might be

1
EU funded project: FESTOS (Foresight of Evolving Security Threats pOsed by emerging
technologieS)
12 Yair Sharan

difficult to understand a scenario without its context. Therefore, the scenarios are
contextualized accordingly. It has been an additional intention to enable readers to
take advantage of the study of the development of scenarios in two ways: First, to
be able to comprehend their development but second, to learn from shortcomings
or weaknesses.

Although projects and scenarios are connected to security topics, neither

the scenario method nor practical insights are limited to security research. The
contrary is the case. Scenarios are useful in all contexts where they are needed to
activate much information and to present it in a coherent picture. However, the
emphasis on security research projects shows vividly, that scenarios might be
useful not only to identify the (positive) chances of the future (normative
scenarios) but also for identifying potential future threats.

Scenarios, which describe a dangerous situation or a threat, need to be

developed carefully. It might be necessary to emphasize repeatedly the fact that
scenarios have a generic character. They need to take into consideration a balanced
selection of potential threats and dangers. The power of mental pictures should not
be underestimated. The reader may be hooked by one scenario and pay no attention
to other options any more. Scenarios are not designed to measure likelihoods. All
recipients should be aware that threats may differ regarding their potential for
materialization – and even that they might never happen.

A critical question is however, how threat scenarios affect the perception

of threats, and how scenarios affect the assessment of a potentially threatening
situation by depicting them in a vivid way. Scenarios that describe a threat are
meant to shed light on a (potentially) underestimated factor. It is important to
address threats and insecurities where they may arise in the future and to initiate
thoughtful discussion about them. That is what a scenario is made for – offering a
basis for communication. It is important to avoid demonization but to show what
could happen.

The examples given demonstrate that scenarios are neither developed in

the same way nor used in the same way. They can show wishful or dreadful
futures, or show a future with less security measures than we have today. Is that
unlikely or even unrealistic? All scenarios described bring up an important issue:
the security and stability of our future. They make us think about options and
threats, political agendas and social circumstances. What kind of future that finally
materializes is based on our decisions, visions and values.
Foreword 13

A lot of research projects address this aspect by looking for options and
frameworks to increase the security of society in various situations and protect it
from various emergencies, but often do not get the attention they deserve. They
are recognized by the core community and a number of outsiders – but not noticed
by the public. When it comes to security and the very crucial question of how we
are going to live one day, it seems necessary to open the debate, for example by
publishing these scenarios and the projects within which they were developed.
Such a step will make it possible to expose a wide range of experts and public
opinion leaders to results of research activity, which may be otherwise neglected.
It also presents issues of interest to the wider public in a very transparent and
understandable way. The selected projects represent a broad range of topics and
contexts. They serve thus to demonstrate the use of complexity scenarios and
clarify the advantages in the decision making process.

A specific feature of this volume is its focus on narrative scenarios.

Narrative scenarios are not yet common. Narrative scenarios often possess the
format of short pieces of fiction, which include a great number of aspects explicitly
and implicitly. Most of their content is gathered from experts or other people
involved. The scenarios are therefore not developed at random but represent the
input of all participants in the process.

Narrative is considered to be a powerful tool for describing the future of

technology (Elina Hiltunen, Kari Hiltunen: Technolife 2035: How Will
Technology Change Our Future? Cambridge Scholars Publishing (Mai 2015). A
successful narrative depends mainly on two important aspects: Firstly, it needs the
courage to step back from numbers and statistics. Clients have to be aware of what
narrative scenarios are and how they can be used. It might depend on their role in
a project or process if they are useful.

Secondly, a skillful writer is indispensable - to be able to develop and –

more importantly – to write a convincing and coherent narrative. Narratives thrive
on atmosphere and persuasion. It is only such an atmosphere that can enable
readers to immerse themselves into the story. Writing a persuasive story is more
difficult than most people think. Not everybody has this ability. Having an
experienced writer who is able to translate the input into a story is therefore a
precondition to be able to adapt the method after all. Names mentioned, contexts
and situations send a message to the reader, which may influence their perception.
The selection of names and special contexts has to be completed very carefully.
Even if the intention is not to write an “objective” story the invention of characters
and names – not to speak of the plot or fable - is a crucial aspect.
14 Yair Sharan

Finally, the articles in this book do not only present research projects and
their corresponding scenarios, but also offer an insight into the implementation of
scenarios in relevant policies and counteractions. To support further scenario work
it seems to be necessary to enable such a process. Not all aspects of scenario
development can be addressed in a single volume however.

It is a frequently stated argument that the future is still unknown. Nobody

wants to argue that. However, by thinking about potential future developments and
events we might be aware of the challenges of tomorrow. Our reactions to
developments and changes will thus be quicker and more efficient. Furthermore,
by planning and preparing now, there may be a chance to avoid threats or reduce
the likelihood of their realization or impact. More importantly - we won't be caught
by surprise when things are happening. We will be prepared with preplanned
counteractions, with trained forces and necessary measures. Scenarios thus do not
predict future events but enable an advanced change of behavior and readiness as
well as the preparation of timely means and counter policies.

To grasp the complex issues of tomorrow, it is necessary to dispute

potential futures. The articles in the present book are examples of scenarios in a
security context. That is a start but should not be the end. Scenarios – and other
foresight methods – help to initiate discussions and make the future tactile. They
make the future more realistic and visualize the challenges we have to face – if we
want to or not. Scenarios can help us to be aware of future threats and to initiate
preparations – we should use this chance.
Introduction

Roman Peperhove

For several decades, foresight studies have been receiving more attention in
science, economy and politics. Originating from war games and military strategy
planning, foresight studies offer a great number of methods to identify potential
futures. Rather diverse methods and their combinations have been applied in the
last decades in relation to numerous studies and in a great variety of contexts. A
solid number of theoretical descriptions, manuals and study results exist, which
are written by experienced practitioners. This present volume approaches
scenarios from two distinctive perspectives: Firstly, from a special thematic angle
and secondly from a methodological angle.

The thematic focus that is present in all given articles is: Security and
privacy issues of different kinds. People might think that Security is a national
issue and doesn’t really affect them– but that is a misunderstanding. Security
issues are present in everyday life as well as in complex regional or global
contexts.

Security issues are omnipresent, if people are aware of them or not. The
majority may think about security whilst withdrawing money from an cash
machine (ATM) and wondering if anyone is able to spy on their pincode. Only
few consider security implications when using new gadgets or think about food
supply. In statistical terms, people in Western Countries are more secure than ever
before but, rather ironically, feel less safe. That may be caused by an increasing
complexity of (inter)national politics or technical systems and devices. It is this
increasing complexity at which security research is aiming when future potential
security issues are at stake.

The improvement of security measures in aspects of everyday life as well

as on national or international levels therefore became one of the leading issues in
research and politics. Nowadays, interrelations between people and technical
systems are increasingly intertwined inter alia by globalization in all fields. The
so-called information revolution is a strong symbol for this development. New
technologies, international cooperation, climate change or the global markets and
traffic can lead to emerging challenges and threats but also new chances –
depending on the perception of threats, their assessment and according
countermeasures.

© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature 2018

R. Peperhove et al. (Eds.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures, Zukunft und
Forschung 6, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_1
16 Roman Peperhove

Security challenges differ strongly depending on region or the field of

interest. Where high-tech systems and devices are common, the Internet of Things
(IoT) may cause security implications. In rural areas, water distribution in a
disruptive state may be the main challenge. On an international level, the future of
forthcoming UN Peace operations may change with significant ramifications.
Such examples do have the potential to have serious impacts on day-to-day life –
be it on the micro level or the macro level – and are worth shedding light on. To
be able to think about future challenges and possible measures to deal with them,
it is necessary to look ahead and try to display potential developments – based on
existing knowledge and estimates for the future.

What is a serious and useful way to address such challenges? How is it

possible to catch the attention of decision makers as well as the general public to
a matter? How can identified challenges be discussed properly in order to initiate
countermeasures or solutions? This is the point where the methodological focus of
this volume comes into play. The challenge is not only to think about the future
but to establish a method or procedure for a structured approach, which is accepted
by relevant stakeholders.

A number of foresight methods are available and used regularly but one
of the most favored is a scenario method. Scenarios differ in style and development
process but are meant to enable easy access to complex situations or relationships.
Foresight offers reasonable arguments as to why something might happen and
something else not. This way, foresight research provides methods to describe
(different) potential futures. Such potential futures do not appear out of nowhere
but are the product of systematic research and analysis. It depends, however, on
the relevant actors if and which one of these materializes actually.

This volume centres upon a special form of scenario that receives

increasing attention in research but is not represented accordingly in literature:
narrative scenarios. Narrative scenarios combine a number of specifications,
which enable implementation in a broad range of contexts. Using different security
issues in this volume, the method will be presented through its characteristics, its
preconditions and advantages as well as limitations.

Narrative scenarios can be roughly described as short stories, which aim

to include relevant aspects of a topic and transform it into a vivid narration with
characters in an everyday context. This way, recipients are immersed in the story
and the respective characters and are able to perceive a context as much intuitively
as deliberately. They focus on a specific problem - and take into account (in a
coarse, sketchy way) the wider context.
Introduction 17

For security issues, this method appeared to be very useful since future
threats or challenges are difficult to communicate through blank statistics or
descriptions. Narrative scenarios depict a potential future situation and trigger
pictures and images in the mind's eye. They display scenes, which the reader finds
easy to perceive and provoke a reaction – ranging from approval to rejection in all
its facets. Whatever it may be, the reader thinks about a scenario and wonders if
he likes it or not, how he would react or if there is a way to circumvent or counter
the threat.

Such mental pictures are important for a comprehensive analysis.

Pictures, drawings and stories have a long history in terms of warnings and oracles.
They have always been used to warn people about the future – for return and
change or as a promise. Dürers´ famous Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse shows,
in warning, the divine apocalypse and the Last Judgment and reminds people of
the inevitability of death. The same applies to pictures of the Ten Plagues or other
images that are intended to maintain people’s belief in a monolith god, a sinless
life or other concepts. The mythological Delphic Sibyl became more famous than
the practice of interpreting omens from the observed flight of birds (Augury), as
in Roman religions. What they have in common is people’s desire to be ahead of
the future: To be prepared when catastrophe hits or to avoid it completely, to
guarantee an afterlife in heaven and not in hell, or to be successful in life. The
reasons differed but the intention is similar: To influence the future by “knowing”
what is going to happen.

In opposition to historical creations, scenarios do not predict the future or

claim to “know” what happens in the future. The only similarity is the approach
of being interested in the future and to think about possible developments and
according measures to influence it. In contrast to oracles, scenarios develop
different images of a potential tomorrow based on different qualitative or
qualitative methods in order to facilitate a necessary discussion on future
challenges. The scenarios and research projects in this book use pictures and
images not to predict, but to transform potential threats into perceivable mental
pictures.

Dark scenarios in projects like FESTOS use narratives to depict potential

threats in a future society with reason. Like historical dystopias they are intended
to shed light on critical aspects, be it intended technological misuse by a terrorist
or a looming conflict on water distribution. Today´s actions – or non-actions –
might have severe consequences in the future, for future generations. By
describing different plots, decision makers and people concerned are able to attain
a comprehensive understanding, which is a precondition for reasonable decisions.
18 Roman Peperhove

A timely adjustment of strategies may save resources of all types in the

medium or the long run. One of the aims of foresight is to reduce surprises or to
be prepared for sudden events and enable a solid course of action instead of ad hoc
solutions, which are seldom the best.

Narrative scenarios push their recipients to think about the implications

of future events and situations. Scenarios convey sociopolitical questions through
narration in a broader context: How do we want to live in the future? Are we aware
of the explicit and implicit threats we might face in the future? How can we set the
course for a secure and desirable future?

The articles in this book have been gathered to answer the question on
how scenarios can be developed based on research experiences and to give a
number of examples to show how such a scenario could look and be implemented
further.

Often scenario development is described as a theoretical task. In this

volume researchers show how they adjusted the theory to fit implementation.
Implementation is marked by limited resources (e.g. time, money, manpower) or
specific topics (e.g. security, local government). Such limitations lead to specific
adaptions of methods and therefore influence the output. All present articles are
experience-based descriptions of scenario development written in a way that
addresses the formation of scenarios and give samples of the final scenarios or
suggest how to utilize them. Most articles are written so that they can be used as
an experienced-based manual for scenario development.

It was the intention of the publishers to bring researchers and experts for
foresight and scenarios together in one volume with the goal to improve foresight
and scenarios through a more frank exchange of experiences, perspectives and
visible results with the motive to learn from each other. Mostly, the results of
research projects or studies end up being cast aside, into a drawer or elsewhere.
What a waste! In order to deliver results to a broader audience and initiate more
exchange between researcher, recipients and clients it seems to be necessary to
initiate an open discussion on the chances but also the limits of scenarios. In the
lessons learned chapter we tried to address critical aspects of scenarios and their
development and contribute in this way to a more realistic understanding of the
power of scenarios.

This book is designed to give an insight into studies executed, which

applied foresight methods to gain insights into a potential tomorrow. It describes
the objectives of the studies, explains the methods used and procedures which
Introduction 19

were implemented to achieve results and ends with lessons learned. In this way,
this volume is designed to work as a manual showing examples and including
suggestions on how to improve such studies in the future.

All articles reflect a special angle on foresight in the context of security

and privacy. They illustrate how scenarios work as a vehicle to raise awareness
for security and privacy issues in very different contexts.

In his article Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument, Karlheinz

Steinmüller constructs a red line from early scenario works until today. He
describes the typology of scenarios and reflects the use of story lines as an artistic
form of scenarios. To be a writer on one hand and bound to a specific scenario on
the other enables the introduction of contextual backgrounds, everyday behavior
as well as action and interaction, which can lead to new insights. In this way,
narrative scenarios become an analytical instrument and a “collective learning
process”.

Scenarios that tell a Story. Based on this statement, Robert Gaßner and
Karlheinz Steinmüller explain the several steps in the development process of
narrative scenarios. They present several examples of its implementation and their
comprehensive experiences with this technique. The core claim of their
experiences is the impact of the process itself, in which the client is involved. By
being part of the development, participants are affected by it and the scenarios
reach a higher level of impact. However, Gaßner and Steinmüller emphasize that
scenarios are meant to work “in the minds of their readers”.

Lars Gerhold and Karlheinz Steinmüller discuss the impact scenarios are
able to evolve in their article Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for
Dialogue. The scenarios themselves are only a part of a wider concept. In the
context of future security concepts, threat scenarios were utilized to trigger
fundamental questions, how risks are perceived and communicated, assess
uncertainty and how politics is embedded in dealing with security concepts. It is
stated that “scenarios do not give answers – they ask questions and point out
problems”. These questions are a precondition to gain new perspectives and a
deeper understanding of the complexity of problems.

The authors Massimo Moraglio, Hans-Liudger Dienel and Robin

Kellermann address the important aspect of the utilization of scenarios by looking
at a real life market. In The Didactical Functions of Dark and Bright Scenarios:
Examples from the European Transport Industry, the authors highlight the impact
of several dark scenarios on the transport industry market and highlight the
20 Roman Peperhove

adjustment of the industry as a reaction to them. The dark scenarios successfully

displayed a decreasing market for European companies if nothing changes. As a
communication instrument scenarios triggered adjustments which enabled a
(re)strengthening of the European transport industry in the global market.

One of the core questions regarding the content of scenarios is, how many
different futures are they able to display and remain reliable? In Surprising
Scenarios, Hauptmann and Steinmüller focus on Science Fiction literature as a
fruitful source to enrich scenarios. Although science fiction writers are usually
more interested in a good story than in scientific accuracy, SF literature places the
stories in a regular future social environment and is much more tangible than usual
scenarios. By pointing to Wild Cards and Weak Signals, the authors emphasize
the usefulness of implementing more un-consensual views in scenarios to
challenge usual scenarios and prepare for unlikely but high impact events.

In The Future of Water Use: Scenarios for Water Management in

Telangana, Jain and Dannenberg show how scenarios can also be used- as a trigger
for future visions. These visions were developed through the implementation of
an innovative follow-up method: the salon method. Confronted with the increasing
problematic context of water distribution in rural India, narrative scenarios were
constructed in close collaboration with local experts not only to highlight potential
future developments but also to utilize them as starting point for the development
of common visions and strategies on how to deal with the problem in the future –
in practical but also political ways.

Björn Theis and Stefan Köppe deal with a global security problem in their
article: International peacekeeping missions. In Peace Operations 2025 their
scenario process for identifying potential future action in this sensitive field is
elaborated. Based on iterative workshops and continuous reflections, key factors,
which may influence the development of international missions, could be
identified and are presented here,. The detailed explanation of thoughts and
decisions during the whole process enables the reader to follow the whole process
and gives insights for future works.

Roman Peperhove describes in his article on The Development of

FESTOS Scenarios the preparation and generation of narrative scenarios in a
security research project. The challenge in general and more specifically in
security projects is to show not only the first impact of an event which comes to
mind, but also side-effects or cascade effects. Besides, the FESTOS scenarios take
place in future societies, which had to be reflected. In the article, the whole process
Introduction 21

from research design to the finalization of scenarios is explained to enable

transparent access to the process and results.

The FESTOS Scenarios contain the four detailed narrative scenarios that
were developed in context of the EU-funded security research project FESTOS
(Foresight of Evolving Security Threats Posed by Emerging Technologies).
Designed as short stories including characters and future daily life contexts, they
show vividly the easily accessible complexity of potential misuse of future
technologies. This is shown with varying story lines from the vulnerability of
future society to emerging technologies and several levels of impact in case of
intended misuse.

Liisa Luoto and her colleague Annika Lonkila give a detailed example on
how to exploit the explicit or implicit information included in scenarios. The Use
of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios is not only a theoretical explanation but
also a critical reflection on the advantages and limits of SWOT for scenarios based
on experiences in an international foresight study. Their aim is to evolve the
method in order to enable “a more detailed, transparent and systematic analysis of
scenarios”. Their concept allows a value-based interpretation of scenarios for
better decision making.

Finally, in Reflections on how to Improve Future Scenarios, Roman

Peperhove discusses a number of critical aspects in the development of scenarios,
which go by the board too often. He claims for a more transparent and frank
handling of information on the development process in order to increase not only
the reliability of the output but also the reputation for foresight as a serious
profession.
I. Scenarios – A Methodological Tool

Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument

Karlheinz Steinmüller

Abstract

This paper analyses the advantages of narrative scenarios. It begins with an

exposition of scenario typology: synchronic (snapshot) vs. diachronic (future history)
scenarios, exploratory vs. normative scenarios, abstract presentations vs. narrative
descriptions.

Writing narrative scenarios, i.e. scenarios told as stories, can be regarded as an

analytical procedure since it allows in depth assessments of the scenario’s topic – its
prerequisites, its implications and side effects, its risks and opportunities.
Fictionalised scenarios are thought experiments with a high degree of imagination
and realism; they explore in particular the human and social dimensions in the setting
of everyday life.

The main challenge of writing narrative scenarios lies in the necessity to integrate all
ideas into a consistent, convincing and compelling plot. There is always a tension
between two structures: the “idea line”, defined as the sequence of scenario elements
that have to be conveyed, and the “plot line”, defined as the sequence of events that
belong to the plot and that trace the unfolding of interactions of the characters.

Narrative scenarios help to understand how people and whole societies may react to
technological trends, to innovations, or to future security threats.

Introduction

Scenarios are one of the basic tools of future studies and foresight respectively.
They allow advance thinking, performing mental experiments with alternative
futures, with desirable ones, possible ones, and even with rather improbable ones.
It is therefore no wonder that during the last decades, the number of scenario
studies has grown steadily, and the term itself is applied to a broad range of topics:
There are scenarios studies about climate change and about urban development,
companies use technological scenarios and business case scenarios, governments

© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature 2018

R. Peperhove et al. (Eds.), Envisioning Uncertain Futures, Zukunft und
Forschung 6, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25074-4_2
24 Karlheinz Steinmüller

commission scenarios of future energy systems and demographic change … The

media frequently employ the term, they speak about the “scenario for the end of
the euro” or call the disturbance of air traffic due to volcanic ash a “Hollywood
scenario”, thus bringing the term back to where it originated, the movie world.
Short and sketchy descriptions and lengthy elaborations are titled scenario,
sometimes a scenario consists only of a chart with some notes, and sometimes
scenarios are communicated in cartoon-like drawings or even put into the format
of a short animation movie. There is a large diversity, and given the tendency to
call any fragmented idea about the future a scenario, futurists may warn, that
“scenario” is the most abused term in futures studies (Glenn 2009, 2).

Historically, the term “scenario” originated within the American school

of military-strategic thinking in the late 1940s. The “scenario” for a “theatre of
war” consisted of a description of a possible situation on the battlefield. What
means and options were available to the adversaries? How would they act, how
would they react? Most probably the word was introduced into foresight through
the RAND Corporation, the first post-war think tank. Herman Kahn, who at first
worked at RAND and later founded the Hudson Institute, made scenarios popular
(Wilson 1978, 225). In his famous study “The Year 2000. A Framework for
Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years”, he defined a scenario as “a
hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention
on causal processes and decision points” (Kahn 1967, 6). Scenarios should answer
two questions: How does the hypothetical future situation arrive? And what are
the options of each actor either to impede the unfolding situation or to divert its
evolution in another direction?

Companies like General Electric and Shell soon adapted the scenario
concept to their aims, mainly in strategic planning. They focused on branching
points, potential discontinuities and contingencies (Wilson 1978: 228ff), “rapids”
in the terminology of Pierre Wack (1985). These companies mainly used scenarios
to test out the robustness of their strategies. Morphological analysis, introduced by
Fritz Zwicky, provided a powerful tool to take account of possible future
alternatives (projections) with a multitude of factors (Jantsch 1967, 174): Which
projection of key factor A is mutually compatible (or antagonistic, or synergistic)
with which projection of all the other key factors B, C …? First software packages
for scenario construction were developed in the late 1970s, e.g. BASICS by
Battelle. It included cross impact analysis and a calculation of Bayesian
probabilities (Millet: 2009). Today, scenarios of many different types have spread
into multiple fields – from regional planning and corporate foresight to long-term
environmental studies and policy-making. Scenario methods, the ways to generate
Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument 25

and to utilize scenarios, have diversified in parallel, and studies about scenarios
proliferated (Schwartz 1991; van der Heijden 1996; van Notten et al. 2003; Wilms
2006; Kosow & Gaßer 2008; Steinmüller 2012).

Types of Scenarios

In contrast to Kahn, most futurists define scenarios primarily as a future state of

affairs that can, optionally, be complemented by the development leading to this
state. “A scenario can present future conditions in two different ways. It can
describe a snapshot in time, that is, conditions at some particular instant in the
future. Alternatively, a scenario can describe the evolution of events from now to
some point of time in the future. In other words, it can present a ‘future history’”
(Becker 1982, 96).

Synchronic, future state of affairs scenarios, on the one hand, put the
emphasis on consistency: The picture of the future must not contain any
contradictions, it has to be at least in a very abstract sense possible, all its elements
have to fit into the overall picture, and usually one tries to make the scenario
plausible, i.e. after some reflection easily acceptable by others. Internal
consistency analysis is therefore a cornerstone of generating snapshot scenarios. It
is mostly based on tools like morphological boxes or consistency matrices.
Synchronic scenarios are frequently employed. Companies rely on snapshot
scenarios on the future business environment to streamline their strategies – or to
design new strategies (Schulz-Montag & Müller-Stoffels 2006; Godet & Durance
2013). A case in point is the scenarios of logistics in the year 2050, developed by
Deutsche Post DHL with the support of Z_punkt GmbH (Deutsche Post 2012).

Diachronic, future history scenarios, on the other hand, put the emphasis
on causalities, on the interplay of factors that give rise to the scenario’s future. As
a rule, they are not constructed by combining future projections in a consistent
way, but by assumptions about the interaction of trends, about actors and their
strategies, about obstacles and barriers, “show stoppers”, “drivers” and “inertial
forces”, about “game changers”, including secondary and tertiary impacts etc.
Typical examples are policy driven scenarios in which the effects and
consequences of policies implemented and measures taken are explored. These
two types differ deeply by the modes of narration: Whereas snapshot scenarios
provide a description of a future state, future history scenarios provide an
26 Karlheinz Steinmüller

explanation of how this state could originate. A case in point is the scenario study
on the future of German forests until the year 2100 (Steinmüller et al. 2009).

Depending on the aim of the scenario exercise one has to also distinguish
exploratory and normative scenarios. As the name infers, exploratory scenarios
are used to explore or “map” possible futures, or, more precisely, expectations
about what may happen under certain conditions. They need a systematic analysis
of options or alternatives for framework conditions, trends – and sometimes wild
cards. As a rule, a whole set of exploratory scenarios is constructed, which in most
cases is intended to cover the major relevant possibilities. A specific problem lies
in the term “possible” itself. Some studies try to extend the realm of the possible
to the limits; more abstract options, possibilities in a purely logical sense are
demanded. Such an approach has the advantage of tearing down mental barriers.
Other studies are designed to capture what realistically can be expected, maybe at
the cost of narrowing down vision.

Normative scenarios depict desirable futures, or, in rare exception, future

states of affairs that should be avoided. Their aim is to identify goals and objectives
and to paint a rather optimal, desirable end state, a vision. Normative scenarios
have the advantage of making the values, attitudes and the mindset of their authors
explicit (Glenn et al. 2009, 7; Steinmüller 1999). Usually, either individual
preferences or normative orientations of a society (like sustainability) serve as
starting point. But the preferences of two people never perfectly coincide – there
may be even some tacit conflict between the values one person adheres to – so that
most normative scenarios exercise aim at finding common ground, shared values,
consensus on objectives. Very rarely more than one normative scenario is
generated. As with exploratory scenarios, there are the extremes of unbound,
effusive visioning and too narrow realism: On one hand, there is the risk of losing
any link to realistic expectations, to boundary conditions that can already be
predicted. Such scenarios become utopian. However, sometimes even utopian
scenarios have their merits, since they allow very clear and distinct value
statements. On the other hand, there is the danger of becoming trapped by
excessive realism and level-headedness, too close adherence to present-day
concepts, patterns, models that may hamper vision and prevent more radical
innovative thinking. In general, one may require that a normative scenario should
stay within the realm of the “in principle” as possible (Gaßner & Steinmüller 2006,
133), a term that can be stretched if necessary. As projections of a desirable, ideal
future state of affairs, normative scenarios at least in the beginning are pure
snapshot scenarios. Almost regularly, they are supplemented by backcasting:
Identifying steps and measures required for a realization of the scenario, adding to
Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument 27

the desirable snapshot scenario a history of successful measures and helpful

circumstances which lead to it.

However, one has to be aware that the scenario concept as used in security
studies differs in some respects from the concept of foresight scenarios. As a rule,
security scenarios depict possible situations, mostly situations of crisis,
catastrophes, and situations with specific security challenges that could arrive
today or rather soon. As far as scenarios in security studies describe an abnormal,
irregular, anomalous (present or future) situation, they are exploratory (snapshot)
scenarios. As far as they focus on catastrophic incidents, they can be regarded as
scenarios of the undesirable, frequently close to a postulated worst case.

Table 1: Generic Types of Scenarios 1

Types of Scenarios

Synchronic Diachronic
Time
(Snapshot) (Future history, evolution)

Exploratory Normative
Modality
(Mapping possibilities) (Desirable, undesirable)

Abstract Narrative
Description
(List of scenario elements) (With storyline)

Narrative Scenarios

Generally speaking, scenarios tell stories about the future for the purpose of
directing today’s action. However, from a literary point of view, most scenarios
are rather abstract presentations of a certain state of affairs or path of development,

1
A more comprehensive scenario typology is given by Van Notten et al. (2003).
28 Karlheinz Steinmüller

at best in an essayistic manner, without (or even avoiding) colorful detail, without
acting persons (characters). They don’t have much in common with fictional
stories. From a storytelling point of view they lack – last but not least – a plot. This
is not necessarily a disadvantage: An excess of colorful detail may distract the
recipient, an intriguing plot with much suspense may even obscure the main
message of the scenario; and there is perhaps no need at all to communicate a
scenario about, e.g. the returning age of fossil fuels as an invented story about
future workers in a carbon sequestration and storage plant. In many cases, it makes
sense to narrate the scenario not as a typical story with an unfolding plot, but in
other literary forms: as an interview, a newspaper report or a speech.

Unfortunately, the term “narrative” itself is rather ambiguous. Narration

encompasses any type of textual description or exposition of the scenario, not only
storytelling: all synchronic or diachronic descriptions, with or without acting
characters. The main point is that there exists a red line throughout the narration,
something that binds the elements of the scenario in a logical, consistent,
convincing way together, some general idea, some main pathway of development,
the “storyline”. For diachronic scenarios this is very often the unfolding of events,
where one event gives rise to the next, where boundary conditions restrict the
impact etc. Such scenarios follow the model of history textbooks that do not
simply describe a sequence of more or less connected events, but expose the
driving forces behind history.

In a certain way, storytelling is easy for diachronic scenarios: They are

based on assumptions about cause and impact, action and reaction – and they can
be used to construct the storyline. In synchronic scenarios, there exists only a set
of mutually consistent projections or items of the (possible or desirable) future
state of affairs. Therefore one has to invent a storyline for the scenario, a line that
combines in a convincing manner all the diverse elements. This can be done by
taking refuge in the means of fiction.

There are ample cases of narrative scenarios, written like short science
fiction stories. This kind of narration is not only well suited to communication, it
forces the scenario writer(s) to write in a very realistic, down-to-earth style. If you
want to present a desirable future in the most convincing way and as close to
everyday (future) reality as possible, and if you want to give it a human angle, to
show the perceptions of ordinary people, a narrative scenario is first choice.
Normative narrative scenarios have been used repeatedly within the framework of
the German High-Tech Strategy for depicting future applications of emerging
technologies – with a focus on their benefits, but also including risks to be avoided
(see Gaßner & Steinmüller in this volume). Putting technological visions into an
Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument 29

everyday setting implies looking for their probable – and sometimes unexpected –
social, political, economical, environmental, and cultural consequences and their
relations to other technologies. Primarily a means of communicating and inciting
debate about normative requirements to emerging technologies, these scenarios
allow, during their generation, some in depth analysis and add important elements
to the picture of the future. Seen from this perspective, writing a narrative
technology scenario comes close to “technology assessment in a nutshell” (Gaßner
& Steinmüller 2004).

Sometimes narrative scenarios have also been employed to explore the

social and human dimensions not of desirable, but of possible futures. As a case
in point, the narrative exploratory scenarios about impacts of demographic change
(Bieber 2011) serve mainly illustrative purposes, but they also expose human
sentiments and modes of reaction that would never become equally prominent in
a more abstract description.

The same holds true for the rare examples of narrative scenarios in
security studies. Besides the FESTOS scenarios, the public security scenarios of
the Forschungsforum Öffentliche Sicherheit should be mentioned (Steinmüller et
al. 2012). The four scenarios based on a major failure of banking software,
reactions to a disaster, and urban and airport security put specific challenges into
a societal context and allowed the identification of weak spots in security
communication and management. Fictionalized scenarios used in this way are
thought experiments with a high degree of imagination and realism.

Idea Line vs. Plot Line

Writing narrative scenarios is an art in itself. It requires a certain literary

craftsmanship and a certain discipline, even restriction in storytelling. In principle
generating a narrative scenario can be broken down into several distinctive steps,
including scenario content generation (in most cases during a workshop),
elaboration of a scenario exposé, construction of the storyboard, writing and
enriching the scenario. Since these steps are exposed in detail in the contribution
of Gaßner and Steinmüller to this volume, they need not to be recapitulated here.
Specific features of the FESTOS scenario process are also explained in
Peperhove’s paper in this volume.
30 Karlheinz Steinmüller

We will focus here on one challenge of scenario writing: the tension

between scenario content and scenario presentation. As a rule, there is no lack of
good ideas. Large workshops or small team brainstorming sessions regularly
produce rich content for the scenario, and all methods of scenario generation put
much emphasis on avoiding manifest inconsistencies in the scenario. In some
cases the items generated do not fit perfectly into an overarching image of the
future, but at least they do not contradict each other. These items, ideas, aspects –
“seed visions” in the terminology of the Futur scenario process – make up the
content core of the scenario. The challenge is, to tell them as parts of one story.

Imagination and a clear understanding of the content are required – and

all the craft of a fiction writer. In a way, writing the scenario gives “flesh and skin”
to the “skeleton” of core content. The writer has to be able to integrate everything
into one single piece: the contextual background (future world/setting), the whole
portfolio of ideas – and everything he or she invents to form not a textual collage
but a real story. As in fiction, a plot is needed, and the plot requires protagonists
(characters, “heroes”) with their motives, perhaps conflicts. One has to decide, for
example, on their name, age, profession, their relationships etc. Even trivial things
such as names have to be chosen carefully since they share a lot about society and
culture. But this is still the more simple part. Inventing a suitable plot is the big
challenge. Of course, one can take refuge in stereotypical plot patterns: the
detective story, the quest – but these are rarely adequate. Some narrative scenarios
are based on the simplest plot: Somebody (e.g. a journalist) visits an expert
(scientist, engineer…), who explains everything. Schwartz (1991; 1992) stresses,
that a plot for a scenario should at least generate a certain measure of excitement
or suspense. Explanations never achieve that. 2 Further on, the plot should allow
an integration of all ideas, all content into one line of action without overloading
protagonists – and the readers! – with too many tasks, too many places to visit, too
many explanations to listen to.

There is always a tension between two structures:

x The “idea line”, defined as the sequence of scenario elements or portfolio

of scenario ideas that have to be conveyed,

2
This problem is well known from utopian literature: The description of the utopian state of affairs in
classical utopias as a rule lacked a convincing plot.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
about, displaying their colours, poor things, to advantage, and
suffering cruelly.’[28]
Much more attention is now paid to the prosecution of the fisheries,
and the preparation of the fish for export, in our North American
colonies. Last season, an enterprising firm in Carleton, New
Brunswick, sent to the Gulf of St. Lawrence a vessel of 30 tons, fitted
with the necessary apparatus and well supplied, for the preparation
of spiced salmon; which vessel, after an absence of two months and
a half, returned with a full fare of the estimated value of £1,750, or
yielding a profit of about 700 per cent. on the outlay, with all
expenses defrayed!
A large New Brunswick vessel recently brought to Liverpool 100
boxes, containing 1,200 tons of preserved lobsters, of the presumed
value of £300, also the result of colonial enterprise.
The flesh of the sea-perch or cunner (Ctenolabrus cæruleus),
sometimes called, on account of its prevailing colour, the blue perch,
is sweet and palatable. They are skinned before being dressed. The
fish is taken by myriads, on the coasts of Maine and Massachusetts.
The striped bass (Labrax lineatus) is a very fine salt-water fish, and
so is the diminutive white bass, better known by its popular name
‘white perch.’ They are a very fine fish for the table when in season.
Their ordinary weight is from four to six ounces in September; they
are often taken above half-a-pound in weight; the largest seen
weighed above a pound.
A schull of the striped bass, 500 or 600 in number, weighing from 4
to 8 lbs. each, have often been taken at one haul of the net, in New
Brunswick. They ascend fresh-water streams for shelter during the
winter, and were formerly taken in large quantities in the Richibucto
and Miramichi rivers. The fish gathered in large shoals, lying in a
dull, torpid state under the ice, and holes being cut, they were taken
in nets in immense numbers, corded up stiff on the ice, like fire-
wood, and sent off in sled-loads to Fredericton and St. John.
The chub is usually considered a coarse fish, but those of large size,
eaten fresh, are very palatable. Mr. Yarrell says, ‘that boiling chub
with the scales on is the best mode of preparing it for table.’
‘The brook-trout of America’ (Salmo fontinalis), says Mr. Herbert, ‘is
one of the most beautiful creatures in form, colour, and motion that
can be imagined. There is no sportsman, actuated by the true
animus of the pursuit, who would not prefer basketing a few brace of
good trout, to taking a cart-load of the coarser and less game
denizens of the water. His wariness, his timidity, his extreme
cunning, the impossibility of taking him in clear and much fished
waters, except with the slenderest and most delicate tackle—his
boldness and vigour after being hooked, and his excellence on the
table, place him without dispute next to the salmon alone, as the first
of fresh-water fishes. The pursuit of him leads into the loveliest
scenery of the land, and the season at which he is fished for is the
most delightful portion of the year.’
The sea-trout of the basin of Bonaventura are of large size, 3 lbs.
and upwards, brilliantly white, in fine condition, very fine and well
flavoured.
The summer gaspereaux, or alewives, (Alosa tyrannus) are an
exceedingly fat fish, and well flavoured; the only objection to them is
their oily richness. Besides their being fatter, they are smaller and
more yellow in colour than the spring fish.
To the epicure, a fresh caught salmon-trout of the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, especially early in the season, will always afford a rich
treat. The flesh is of a brilliant pink colour, and most excellent: its
exceeding fatness early in the season, when it first enters the mixed
water of the estuaries, is such that it can be preserved fresh but a
very short time. The sportsman will find it a thoroughly game fish;
rising well at a brilliant fly of scarlet ibis and gold, and affording sport
second only to salmon fishing. In some parts of the Gulf they have
been caught weighing 5 to 7 lbs.
That beautiful and savoury fish, the smelt, is a great table delicacy
with us; but on the Gulf coasts of New Brunswick, large quantities
are used every season merely for manure.
As food, the skate is held in very different degrees of estimation in
different places. In London, large quantities are consumed, and
crimped skate is considered delicate and well flavoured; but on some
parts of the English coast, although caught in considerable numbers,
the flesh is seldom eaten, and is only used for baiting lobster pots.
The French are great consumers of the skate; and its flesh is used
extensively both at New York and Boston. By many it is deemed a
great delicacy. After the fish is skinned, the fleshy part of the huge
pectoral fins, which is beautifully white, is cut into long thin slips,
about an inch wide; these are rolled like ribbon, and dressed in that
form.
The capelan (Mallotus villosus), the smallest species of the salmon
family, possesses like the smelt the cucumber smell, but it differs
from the smelt in never entering fresh-water streams. As an article of
bait for cod, and other fish of that class, the capelan is a fish of much
importance; whenever abundant, the cod-fishing is excellent. It has
been found as far north in the arctic region as man has yet
penetrated; and it forms so important an article of food in Greenland,
that it has been termed the daily bread of the natives. In
Newfoundland, it is dried in large quantities, and exported to London,
where it is sold principally in the oyster shops.
The large, flat-fish known as the halibut (Hippoglossus vulgaris),
which sometimes attains the weight of 300 lbs, is often taken by the
cod-fishers in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. These fish are cut in slices,
and pickled in barrels, in which state they sell at half the price of the
best herrings. The flesh, though white and firm, is dry, and the
muscular fibres coarse. The fins and flaps are however esteemed
delicacies.
The mackerel of the British North American coasts is of a much finer
flavour than those caught on the shores of Europe.
The salmon are also noted for their very fine flavour.
If there are no turbot, brill, or sole, in the St. Lawrence, there are
other delicacies. A species of eel is exceedingly abundant and
frequently of large size. One of these, a sea-eel, split, salted, and
smoked, without the head, was 30 inches in length, and 15 inches in
diameter, breadth as split, nearly the size of an ordinary smoked
salmon and quite as thick. 300 barrels of large eels, taken with the
spear in the Buctouche river, are usually salted-down for winter use.
They are generally excessively fat, the flesh very white and
exceedingly well flavoured. Packages of eels have been lately
imported into London from Prince Edward’s Island. Smoked eels are
very delicious, and they have even begun to preserve these fish thus
at Port Phillip.
The fisheries of the North American lakes and rivers are not
prosecuted as they might be, but are beginning to receive more
attention. The white-fish (Corregonus albus) is found in all the deep
lakes west of the Mississippi, and indeed from Lake Erie to the Polar
Sea. That which is taken in Leech Lake is said by amateurs to be
more highly flavoured than even that of Lake Superior. There is
another species of this fish, called by the Indians tuliby or ottuniby
(Corregonus artidi), which resembles it, but is much less esteemed.
Both species furnish a wholesome and palatable food.
The French Canadians call this fish Poisson Pointu, and the English
term them ‘gizzard fish.’ The origin of the latter name appears to be,
that the fish feeds largely on fresh-water shell fish and shelly
molluscs; and its stomach thereby gains an extraordinary thickness,
and resembles the gizzard of a fowl. The stomach, when cleaned
and boiled, is a favourite morsel with the Canadian voyageurs.
The white-fish of the bays and lakes of Canada is represented to be
the finest fish in the world by the Canadians. The flavour of it is
incomparable, especially when split open and fried with eggs and
crumbs of bread. They weigh on the average about 2 lbs. each when
cleaned—100 of them filling a good sized barrel. Those caught in
Lake Huron are more highly prized than any others.
Several Indian tribes mainly subsist upon this fish, and it forms the
principal food at many of the fur posts for eight or nine months of the
year, the supply of other articles of diet being scanty and casual. Its
usual weight in the northern regions is from 2 to 3 lbs., but it has
been taken in the clear, deep, and cold waters of Lake Huron, of the
weight of 13 lbs. The largest seen in the vicinity of Hudson’s Bay
weighed between 4 and 5 lbs., and measured 20 inches in length,
and 4 in depth. One of 7 lbs. weight, caught in Lake Huron, was 27
inches long.
Among other species of fish that inhabit these great inland seas are
the mashkinonge, or mashkilonge, the pike or jack, the pickerel or
gilt carp, the perch, and a species of trout called by the Chippeways,
namogus.
A huge mashkilonge, so ravenous is its propensities, is often caught
from the stern of a steamer in full speed, by throwing out a strong
line with a small tin fish attached. A marked peculiarity of most of the
Lake fish is the quantity of fat, resembling that of quadrupeds, which
they contain, entirely different from the salt-water fish—while their
flavor differs from that of the latter, being much more delicate and
white than that of river fish.
Lake Superior abounds with fish, particularly trout, sturgeon, and
white-fish, which are caught at all seasons and in large quantities. Of
these the trout, weighing from 12 to 50 lbs., and the white-fish,
weighing often over 20 lbs., are perhaps the most important.
The salmon trout are equally large, weighing from 10 to 70 lbs.
Lake Champlain also abounds with fish, among which are salmon,
lake-shad, pike, and other fish.
The reciprocity treaty has given a new field to the fisheries on the
Canada side of Lake Huron. Some 200 American fishermen are now
engaged within fifty miles each side of Goderich in the business.
This has greatly stimulated the Cannucks, and it is estimated 400 of
them are now engaged in the same business. About 100 miles of the
Lake shore is lined with gill nets and seines. Every boat that comes
in has a large number of salmon-trout from 30 to 50 lbs. weight.
White-fish are very large. The fish caught at Collingwood terminus of
the northern railway, from Toronto, are packed in ice, and go to
Oswego, Rome, Utica, Albany, and New York. Great quantities taken
at Goderich go in ice from thence to Cleveland and Cincinnati.
The Toronto and Oswego markets are supplied with fish from
Collingwood, and a well organized company, with nets, ice-houses,
&c., might do a fine business by supplying the New York, Boston,
and other American markets, daily with trout, bass, and white-fish
from the waters of Georgian Bay.
Fishing with the scoop net is the most laborious of all modes of
fishing. It was found in practice at the Sault St. Marie by the Baron
De Hortan, when he penetrated to that point in 1684. It has been
practised ever since, because it is the only mode by which the white-
fish can be taken. They go there to feed and not to spawn; the
bottom of the river is a rocky broken ground, and the current runs at
the rate of 12 miles per hour; the eddy in which the fish are found is
of small circuit, and only one canoe at a time can enter it. The canoe
is forced into it by setting poles. The man in the bow has a scoop
net, the handle to which is about 15 feet in length. He has only time
to make one stroke with the scoop, the next instant the canoe is
whirled away by the current far below the point where the stroke was
made.
The plunge of the scoop may be successful or not according to
chance; one fish or half-a-dozen may be taken, or very frequently
none. As soon as one canoe is thus swept away, another one
supplies its place, and in this manner some eight or ten canoes in
rapid succession take their turn. Canoes are used because, being
lighter, they can be forced up where it would not be possible to put a
boat. Even though the white-fish would take the hook, still in such
rapid water it could not be used.
Again, the character of nearly the whole of the coasts of Lakes
Huron and Superior forbids any other mode of fishing than by gill
nets.
Gill nets are often set in 60 feet of water, and the fish cannot be
taken at such localities in any other mode, except at some seasons
of the year when they will take the hook.
Again, there are localities along Lake Superior, where fish such as
the rock sturgeon and mashkilonge can only be taken with the spear,
and that in 30 feet water; the bottom is so disturbed, distorted,
upheaved, and broken by volcanic action, that gill nets cannot be
used, and the fish can only be reached in the hollows, crevices, and
chasms of the rock where they lie, by means of a spear, which is
thrown and has a line attached to the extremity.
The Lake Superior Journal says:—‘Angling through the ice to a
depth of 30 fathoms of water is a novel mode of fishing somewhat
peculiar to this peculiar region of the world. It is carrying the war into
fishdom with a vengeance, and is denounced, no doubt, in the
communities on the bottoms of these northern lakes as a scaly piece
of warfare. The large and splendid salmon-trout of these waters have
no peace; in the summer they are enticed into the deceitful meshes
of the gill-net, and in the winter, when they hide themselves in the
deep caverns of the lakes, with fifty fathoms of water above their
heads, and a defence of ice two or three feet in thickness on the top
of that, they are tempted to destruction by the fatal hook. Large
numbers of these trout are caught every winter in this way on Lake
Superior. The Indian, always skilled in the fishing business, knows
exactly where to find them and how to kill them. The whites make
excursions out on the Lake in pleasant weather to enjoy this sport.
There is a favourite resort for both fish and fishermen near Gros
Cap, at the entrance of Lake Superior, through the rocky gateway
between Gros Cap and Point Iroquois, about 18 miles above the
Sault, and many a large trout at this point is pulled up from its warm
bed at the bottom of the Lake in winter, and made to bite the cold ice
in this upper world. To see one of these fine fish, four or five feet in
length, and weighing half as much as a man, floundering on the
snow and ice, weltering and freezing to death in its own blood,
oftentimes moves the heart of the fisherman to expressions of pity.
The modus operandi in this kind of great trout fishing is novel in the
extreme, and could a stranger to the business overlook at a distance
a party engaged in the sport, he would certainly think they were mad,
or each one making foot-races against time. A hole is made through
the ice, smooth and round, and the fisherman drops down his large
hook, baited with a small herring, pork, or other meat, and when he
ascertains the right depth, he waits—with fisherman’s luck—some
time for a bite, which in this case is a pull altogether, for the
fisherman throws the line over his shoulders and walks from the hole
at the top of his speed till the fish bounds out on the ice. I have
known of as many as fifty of these splendid trout caught in this way
by a single fisherman in a single day; it is thus a great source of
pleasure and a valuable resource of food, especially in Lent; and the
most scrupulous anti-pork believers might here ‘down pork and up
fish’ without any offence to conscience.’
The Cleveland Plain-dealer has a lengthy account of the trade of the
house of J. M. Craw and Son, of that city. It says:—‘At the
warehouse, 133, River street, in this city, is a grand depôt of its
receipts. From this place large supplies of salt provisions,
fisherman’s tackle, seines, lines, and everything needed on the
coasts of the upper lakes, are forwarded. At Washington Harbour, in
Green Bay, engagements are made with the fishermen of 118 boats,
each of which has a head fisherman, who has his crew engaged in
fishing. Over 300 men are constantly engaged, spring and fall, in that
locality in catching, packing, and forwarding fish. Similar settlements
of fishermen are scattered all along the coasts of Lakes Michigan,
Superior, Huron, and Erie. The number of varieties of Lake fish fit for
packing is large, including white-fish, siskawit, trout, pickerel, cat-
fish, bass, herring, perch, shad, and bayfish. The amount of fish
received by Craw and Son, in 1856, exceeded 14,000 barrels, and
as their receipts this year from Lake Michigan will be about 6,000
barrels, an increased aggregate is anticipated. This large amount is
so much added to the food of the country, and constitutes an
important addition to its wealth. From the details of this single house
we may learn something of the extent of the entire trade.’
In the Baikal Lake, Siberia, there is a fish (Callyonimus Baicalensis)
from four to six inches long, so very fat, that it melts before the fire
like butter. It yields an oil sold to great advantage to the Chinese.
The Lake Superior Journal, of October 27, notices the arrival of a
100 barrels of the famous siskawit from Isle Royale, and learns from
one of the fishermen that there have been caught this season
between 300 and 400 barrels of this fish, together with a few trout
and white fish. They fish on that island for this fish principally, as the
siskawit are worth as much again as whitefish and mackinac trout in
the lake markets.—The siskawit is said to be the fattest fish that
swims, either in fresh or salt water. The fishermen assert, that one of
these fish, when hung up by the tail in the hot sun of a summer day,
will melt and entirely disappear, except the bones. In putting up
about 50 barrels this season, one of the fishermen made two and a
half barrels of oil from the heads and ‘leaf fat’ alone, without the least
injury to the marketableness of the fish. Besides this leaf fat, the fat
or oil is disseminated ‘in a layer of fat and a layer of lean’ throughout
the fish. They are too fat to be eaten fresh, and are put up for market
like whitefish and trout.
‘Fish being here very scarce,’ (Falls of the Uaupés,) ‘we were
obliged,’ says Mr. Wallace, ‘to live almost entirely on fowls, which,
though very nice when well roasted, and with the accompaniment of
ham and gravy, are rather tasteless, simply boiled or stewed, with no
variation in the cookery, and without vegetables.
‘I had now got so thoroughly into the life of this part of the country,
that like everybody else here, I preferred fish to every other article of
food. One never tires, and I must again repeat, that I believe there
are fish here superior to any in the world.
‘Our fowls cost us about a penny each, paid in fish-hooks or salt, so
that they are not such expensive food as they would be at home. In
fact, if a person buys his hooks, salt, and other things in Para, where
they are about half the price they are in Barra, the price of a fowl will
not exceed a halfpenny; and fish, pacovas, and other eatables that
this country produces, in the same proportion.
‘Many of the fish of the Rio Negro are of a most excellent flavour,
surpassing anything I have tasted in England, either from the fresh
or the salt waters; and many species have real fat, which renders the
water they are boiled in a rich and agreeable broth. Not a drop of this
is wasted, but with a little pepper and farinha is all consumed, with
as much relish as if it were the most delicate soup.’[29]
Pirarucú, the dried fish, which with farinha forms the chief
subsistence of the native population of Brazil, and in the interior is
the only thing to be obtained, resembles in appearance nothing
eatable, looking as much like a dry cow-hide, grated up into fibres,
and dressed into cakes, as anything I can compare it with. When
eaten, it is boiled or slightly roasted, pulled to pieces and mixed with
vinegar, oil, pepper, onions, and farinha, and altogether forms a very
savoury mess for a person with a good appetite and a strong
stomach.
If we pass to the Pacific coasts of South America, we find the most
esteemed fish are the robalo, the corvino, the lisa, and the king-fish.
The robalo (Esox Chilensis, Hemiramphus Brazillensis of Cuvier,) is
nearly of a cylindrical form, and from two to three feet long. It is
coated with angular scales of a golden colour upon the back, and
silver on the belly; the fins are soft and without spines, the tail is
truncated, and the back marked longitudinally with a blue stripe,
bordered with yellow. The flesh is very white, almost transparent,
light, and of a delicious taste. Those taken upon the Araucanian
coast are the most in repute, where they are sometimes caught of
eight pounds weight. The Indians of Chiloe smoke them, after having
cleaned and soaked them for 24 hours in sea water, and, when
sufficiently dry, pack them up in casks of 100 each, which are
generally sold for about three dollars. The robalo prepared in this
manner is said to be superior to any other kind of dried fish.
The corvino (Sparus Chilensis) is nearly of the same size as the
robalo; it is sometimes, however, found of five or six feet in length.
This fish has a small head, and a large oval body, covered with
broad, rhomboidal scales, of a mother-of-pearl colour, marked with
white. The tail is forked, and the body encircled obliquely, from the
shoulders to the belly, with a number of brownish lines. The fins are
armed with spiny rays, and the flesh is white, firm, and of a good
taste, particularly when fried. It would probably be better still if it were
prepared like that of the tunny.
The lisa (Mugil Chilensis) in its form, scales, and back is much like
the common mullet, but is distinguished by the dorsal fin, which in
the lisa is entire. There are two species of this fish, the sea and the
river lisa, neither of which exceeds a foot in length; the first is a very
good fish, but the latter is so exquisite, that it is preferred by many to
the best of trout.
Another esteemed fresh-water fish of Chile is the bagre, or luvur
(Silenus Chilensis, probably the A. geneionis inermis), which has a
smooth skin, without scales, and is brown upon the sides, and
whitish under the belly. In appearance, it is not very prepossessing,
for in form it resembles a tadpole; the head being of a size
disproportionate to the length of the body, which does not exceed
eleven inches at the most. It has a blunt mouth, furnished like that of
the barbel with barbs. It has a sharp spine on the back fins, like the
tropical bagre, but its puncture is not venomous, as that is said to be.
The flesh is yellow, and the most delicious of any esculent fish that is
known. There is said to be another species of this fish inhabiting the
sea, which is black—the same, probably, that Anson’s sailors called,
from its colour, the chimney-sweep.
While on the subject of fish common to this locality, I may mention
that the Abbé Molina states, that ‘the river Talten, which waters the
Araucanian provinces, produces a small fish called paye, which, as I
have been assured by those who have seen them, is so diaphanous,
that if several are placed upon each other, any object beneath them
may be distinctly seen. If this property is not greatly exaggerated,
this fish might serve to discover the secret process of digestion and
the motion of the fluids.’
Mr. Ruschenberger thus describes a Hawaiian restaurant:—‘The
earth floor of a straw hovel was covered by mats. Groups of men
squatted in a circle, with gourd plates before them, supplied with raw
fish and salt-water, and by their side was an enormous gourd, of the
dimensions of a wash tub, filled with poë, a sort of paste made of
taro. They ate of the raw fish, occasionally sopping the torn animal in
the salt water as a sauce, then sucking it, with that peculiar smack
which indicates the reception of a delicious morsel.’
The noble salmon, which honest Izaak Walton justly calls, ‘the king
of fresh-water fish,’ is too well known as a choice article of food to
need description. A jowl of fresh salmon was one of the requisites, in
1444, at the feast of the Goldsmiths’ Company; and in 1473, three
quarters of Colnbrook salmon are charged 6s. 4d.; and at a fish
dinner of the same company in 1498, among large quantities of fish
mentioned, are a fresh salmon 11s.; a great salmon £1; and two
salmon-trout 2s. 8d. In 1518, for ij. fresh samon xvijˢ jᵈ Item, a fresh
samon xiijˢ iiijᵈ; and in the eighth year of King Henry VIII. iiij. fresh
samons are charged xlˢ
In the great rush after gold, the fisheries of the Pacific coast, which
have been famous for years past for their extent and value, have not
received that attention which they merit. Now that the living tide has
again set in strongly towards the North-West, the demand for food to
feed the thousands will cause the fishery to be more largely
developed. The whole coast is particularly rich in the more valuable
species of the finny tribe.
A San Francisco paper states:—‘The salmon of California and
Oregon, with which our markets are supplied in the fresh and cured
state, are nowhere surpassed in quality or flavour. Our rivers, bays,
and estuaries are alive with these valuable fish, and the fishermen
are busy in securing them during the present run. It is estimated that
there are 400 boats on the Sacramento river alone, engaged in
fisheries. The boats are valued at 60,000 dollars, the nets at 80,000
dollars, and seines at 6,000 dollars. The fishing season lasts from
the 1st of February to the 1st of August, during which time the
estimated average of each boat per day is 30 dollars, or an
aggregate of 12,000 dollars. The hauling seines yield 100 dollars
each per day, or 2,000 dollars in the aggregate. The fish thus caught
supply the markets of San Francisco, Sacramento, Marysville, and
the mining towns in the interior. Sometimes 2,000 lbs. are sent to
one order. The amount shipped daily to San Francisco at present is
from 5,000 to 6,000 lbs., which will be increased as the season
advances.
‘The fishing smacks outside the harbour in the vicinity of Drake’s
Bay, Punto de los Reyes, Tomales, and similar points, as well as
other portions of the coast, are busily engaged in the trade.
‘This business is becoming every year of greater interest, and the
attention of our legislature has recently been drawn to its proper
regulation and protection. A description of the fishes common to
these waters, with an account of their habits, quality, and relative
value, would be of great interest.
‘In addition to salmon there are other varieties of fish deserving more
than a passing notice. Much difficulty is experienced in classifying
them under the proper heads, and recognizing the species under
their various arbitrary names. The sturgeon, the rock cod, the
mackerel—which, although it bears some resemblance to the
Atlantic fish is inferior to it in flavour and fatness—the herring, the
smelt, the sardine, and other varieties found in our markets, are all
more or less valuable. Myriads of sardines abound along the whole
southern coast. The Bay of Monterey has especially become famous
for its abundance of this small but valuable fish. It is a matter of
surprise that the taking and preparation of this fish, which enters so
largely into the commerce of the world, has never been attended to
as a source of revenue and profit in this region. The experiment
certainly is worth testing. There are doubtless many persons here,
familiar with the trade as practised on the coast of France, whose
services might be secured in the business.’
Another Californian paper, the Sacramento Union, remarks:—‘The
fishing interest in the Sacramento at this point is increasing and
expanding with astonishing rapidity, from year to year, and from
month to month. The water of the river must be alive with salmon, or
such numbers caught daily would sensibly reduce their numbers. But
experienced fishermen inform us, while the run lasts, so countless is
the number, that no matter how many are employed in the business,
or how many are taken daily, no diminution can be perceived. Even
the ‘tules’ between this and the Coast Range are reported to be filled
with salmon. The run this year is said to be greater than ever before
known at this season. The extraordinary run of the present time is
only expected to continue for something like three weeks. They
seem to run in immense schools, with some weeks intervening
between the appearance of each school, during which the numbers
taken are light, as compared with the quantity taken during a time
like the present. No account is kept of the number engaged in
fishing, or of the amount caught, and all statements relative thereto
are made from estimates obtained from those who have experience
in the business, and probably approximate correctness. These
estimates give the number of men employed now in taking fish in the
Sacramento at about 6OO—the number of fish taken daily, on an
average, at 2,000—their average weight 17 lbs., making 34,000 lbs.
per day. Two cents per lb., which is probably more than the present
average price by the quantity, would give a daily income to those
employed of 680 dollars, not very high pay. Either the number of
men engaged in the business, we imagine, must be over estimated,
or the number of fish caught under estimated. It requires two men to
man a boat, which would give 300 boats for 600 men: 2,000 fish a
day would give to each man a fraction over three as his share. We
presume few are fishing who do not catch a good many more than
that number. We saw a boat-load, the product of the previous night,
consisting of 66 salmon, weighed yesterday morning. They averaged
a fraction over 17 lbs., and gave 33 as the number caught by each
man, instead of three, as estimated above. Say the 600 fishermen
man, on an average, 200 boats a night; the average number caught
by each boat put at 20, and the sum total would be 4,000 fish,
instead of 2,000, as estimated. Our impression is that the latter
comes nearer the mark than the former, as a good many of the
fishermen send their fish directly to San Francisco; others take them
to different points for salting. Large numbers are salted down daily,
several firms and individuals being extensively engaged in this
branch of the trade. The fish are put down in hogsheads, which
average, when filled, about 800 lbs. From 1,000 to 3,000 lbs. are put
down daily by those engaged in salting. An acquaintance has filled
65 hogsheads this season. The most of those engaged in salting live
on the Washington side of the river, and salt their fish there.
Including those engaged in salting, catching, and selling, probably
the fish business furnishes employment for 1,000 men.’
The salmon is found in no other waters in such vast multitudes as
are met in the rivers emptying into the Pacific. On the Atlantic side,
the leading fish feature is the run of shad in the spring; on the Pacific
side, salmon ascend the rivers at all seasons, in numbers beyond all
computation. In California and Oregon, the rivers are alive with them;
the great number taken by fishermen are but a drop from the bucket.
Above this, on the coast side, tribes of Indians use no other food. As
a table luxury, they are esteemed by most persons the finest fish
caught. Unlike many fish, they contain but few bones, and the
orange-coloured meat can be served in slices to suit customers. It is
emphatically the meat for the million; it costs so little—not a quarter
that of other meats—that rich and poor can feast upon salmon as
often in the day as they choose to indulge in the luxury. In the course
of a few years, salmon fishing will extend itself to all the prominent
rivers in the North Pacific States. Catching and curing salmon will
then have become a systematized business; the fish consumption
will then have extended itself generally over those States, and more
than likely become, in the meantime, an important article of export.
While upon the subject of these fisheries, it may be added, that a
considerable portion of the Chinese population, both at San
Francisco and at Sacramento, have engaged extensively in this
business. In the vicinity of Mission Creek, near the former city, they
have gone into the business upon a large scale. The average ‘catch,’
each day, is estimated at about 5,000 lbs., for which a ready market
is found among the Chinese population, at five dollars per cwt. The
process of catching, cleaning, and curing, presents a busy and
curious scene.
Sir John Bowring remarks that, ‘The multitudes of persons who live
by the fisheries in China afford evidence not only that the land is
cultivated to the greatest possible extent, but that it is insufficient to
supply the necessities of the overflowing population; for agriculture is
held in high honour in China, and the husbandman stands next in
rank to the sage, or literary man, in the social hierarchy. It has been
supposed that nearly a tenth of the population derive their means of
support from fisheries. Hundreds and thousands of boats crowd the
whole coasts of China—sometimes acting in communities,
sometimes independent and isolated. There is no species of craft by
which a fish can be inveigled which is not practised with success in
China. Every variety of net, from vast seines, embracing miles, to the
smallest hand-filet in the care of a child. Fishing by night and fishing
by day—fishing in moonlight, by torchlight, and in utter darkness—
fishing in boats of all sizes—fishing by those who are stationary on
the rock by the seaside, and by those who are absent for weeks on
the wildest of seas—fishing by cormorants—fishing by divers—
fishing with lines, with baskets—by every imaginable decoy and
device. There is no river which is not staked to assist the fisherman
in his craft. There is no lake, no pond, which is not crowded with fish.
A piece of water is nearly as valuable as a field of fertile land. At
daybreak every city is crowded with sellers of live fish, who carry
their commodity in buckets of water, saving all they do not sell to be
returned to the pond or kept for another day’s service.
The fishing grounds of Van Diemen’s Land are periodically visited by
a splendid fish named arbouka, a well-known piscatory visitant on
the coast of New Zealand. Great numbers of these beautiful
denizens of the deep have been caught, varying in weight from 60
lbs. to 100 lbs. each. The trumpeter is one of the most magnificent of
Tasmanian fish; and is unrivalled in the quality of its flesh by any
visitant in those waters. A demand has been created for them in
Victoria; and before long, a stirring trade will be established between
the two colonies in these beautiful fish.
The native cooking-oven of New Zealand, called the unu, is a very
curious contrivance, and is thus described by Mr. S. C. Brees. It
consists of a round hole, about two or three feet in diameter, and
twelve inches deep, in which some wood is placed and lighted.
Large pebble-stones are then thrown on the fire and heated, which
remain at the bottom of the hole after the wood is consumed; the
stones are next arranged, so as to present a level surface, and
sprinkled with water; wild cabbage or other leaves are moistened
and spread over them, upon which the food intended to be cooked is
laid; the whole is then covered over with leaves and flax-baskets,
and lastly, filled over with earth, which completes the operation. After
allowing it to remain a certain time, according to circumstances,
which the cook determines with the utmost precision, the oven is
opened and the food removed. Eels and potatoes are delicious when
cooked in this manner, and every other kind of provision.
The seer-fish (Cybium guttatum) is generally considered the finest
flavoured of the finny race that swims in the Indian seas; it has a
good deal the flavour of salmon.
There are several esteemed fish obtained round Ceylon. The
Pomfret bull’s eye (Holocentrus ruber) is found at certain seasons in
abundance on the southern coast of Ceylon, in deep water. It is
greatly esteemed by the natives as an article of food, and reaches a
considerable size, frequently nearly two feet in length. The flesh is
white and solid. For splendour and beauty, this fish is almost
unsurpassed.
A fish called by the natives great-fire (Scorpæna volitans) is eaten by
the native fishermen, the flesh being white, solid, and nutritive.
Linnæus describes the flesh as delicious.
The pookoorowah (Holocentrus argenteus) is a very delicious fish,
seldom exceeding twelve or thirteen inches in length. The gal-
handah (Chætodon araneus), a singular and much admired fish, only
about three inches in length, has a delicate and white flesh, and is
greatly esteemed.
In Java and Sumatra, a preparation of small fish, with red-rice,
having the appearance of anchovies, and the colour of red-cabbage,
is esteemed a delicacy. So in India, the preparation called tamarind
fish is much prized as a breakfast relish, where the acid of the
tamarind is made use of for preserving the white pomfret-fish, cut in
transverse slices. The mango-fish (Polynemus longifilis, Cuvier; P.
paradiscus of Linnæus), about eight or nine inches long by two deep,
is much esteemed in India. At Calcutta the Lates nobilis, different
species of Polynemus, and the Mugil Corsula, daily cover the tables
of Europeans, who will more readily recognize these fishes under the
names of the Begti or Cockup, Sudjeh, Tupsi, and the Indian Mullet.
At the Sandheads may be found some of those delicious fishes,
which are more familiar to the residents of Madras and Bombay, for
instance, the Indian soles, the roll-fish, and above all, the black and
white pomfrets, and the bummolah, which latter in a dried state is
known by the name of the Bombay duck. The bummolah is a small
glutinous transparent fish, about the size of smelt.
There are many excellent fish obtained from the sea round the Cape
Colony, and about 2,500 tons are shipped annually to the Mauritius,
forming nearly three fourths of the island consumption; the principal
consumers being the coolie labourers or Indian population.
Geelbeck, or yellow mouth, sometimes called Cape salmon
(Otolithus æquidens, Cuv. and Val.), is the finest as to quality; they
are taken abundantly with the hook and line, or net, and weigh about
14 lbs. The cost of preparation ready for shipment is about £12. It
forms an article of food for the poor and lazy. The Malays at the
Cape cure a great deal in vinegar (for home consumption), the same
as pickled salmon in England; and it is not a bad representative of it.
For exportation they are opened down the back, the intestines taken
out, head cut off, salted for a night, and dried in the sun.
Snook (Thyrsites atua), similar to the baraconta, is a long, slim, oily
fish, taken with any shining bait; it is a perfect salt-water pike, very
strong and ferocious, and is dispatched, after being pulled on board,
by blows on the head with a kind of knob-kerrie. These are cured the
same way as the geelbeck; the cost of production is about £16 per
ton. They are highly prized by the colonists, and esteemed before
any fish imported into Mauritius, fetching about £2 per ton more than
cod. These fish are very fine eating when cured fresh. They are also
much esteemed in Ceylon. The Malays cure them without salt by
drying in the sun, with a little pepper and spice; they are then
delicious.
Silver fish (Dentex argyrozona) are similar to the bream of England;
each weighs from 6 to 8 lbs. They are got up for shipment the same
as the others; the cost of production is about £10 per ton. They are
the least esteemed of any at the Mauritius market, but when fresh
they are very nice eating. The bastard silver fish (D. rupestris) is
considered one of the very finest fishes in the colony. It is esteemed
for foreign markets. Harders are a mullet, about eight inches long,
which are principally cured in small casks in brine, for up-country
use. The Cape farmers are very fond of them, but few are exported.
They have also mackerel very large, very fat, which are better cured
than fresh.
The Jacob Evertsen (Sebastes capensis), so called after a Dutch
captain, remarkable for a red face and large projecting eyes, is a fish
which, though common in Table Bay almost at all seasons, is highly
prized for its flesh by most colonists. Another species, the sancord
(S. maculatus), which is not so common, is a very delicious fish. The
kabeljauw (Sciæna hololepidota) is a large fish from two to three feet
long, common on the coast, being caught with the hook and the
drag-net. It is one of the staple fishes in the Cape Town market; dried
and salted like cod it is exported to the Mauritius and elsewhere. Its
flesh when young is good, but firm and dry in adult individuals. The
baardmannetje (Umbrina capensis, Pappe), another newly described
fish of the same family, which is chiefly caught in False Bay during
summer, measures from 2 to 2½ feet, and is reputed for its delicious
flesh.
The hangberger (Sargus Hottentotus), a fish about 18 inches long,
which is common in Table Bay from June to August, is much in
request, particularly at the time when it is with roe. It is also cured
and pickled for economical purposes. It feeds on shell fish, and is
caught with the hook.
The Hottentot fish (Sargus capensis), from 12 to 14 inches long,
which is mostly confined to Table Bay and the West Coast, may be
caught at all seasons with the hook. It is not only a superior table
fish, but forms when salted and dried an article of export.
The roode steen brassem of the Dutch (Chrysophrys laticeps,
Cuvier) is a bulky fish, often exceeding 3½ feet in length and 14
inches in breadth. It is very voracious, and feeds generally on crabs
and cuttle fish (Sepia and Loligo). As food it is much prized, and is
also cured for exportation.
The Roman fish (Chrysophrys cristiceps) is one of the prettiest and
most delicious fish met with in the Cape markets. It is generally
acknowledged to be a superior dish.
The daggerath (Pagrus laniarius) is of a dark rose colour, about 12
inches long. It is highly prized in the colony for its delicious flesh.
This handsome fish owes its surname, laniarius (butcher), both to its
colour and to its sharp teeth and voracity.
The windtoy (Cantharus Blochii) is a delicious table fish, more
commonly caught in winter, and often put up in bundles along with
the Hottentot fish (Sargus capensis). The flesh of the dasje fish,
another species (Cantharus emarginatus), is also highly esteemed
as food.
There is a fish called by the colonists the bamboo fish (Boops salpa),
from feeding on algæ and being caught principally in localities where
there is an abundance of sea-weed. On account of its vegetable
nourishment, it exhibits at times a particular smell when embowelled,
and is for that reason called stink-fish by some of the fishermen. It is
a rich and delicate fish, and though scarce in the Cape Town market,
is common in Saldanha Bay, where it is dried and salted for home
consumption.
The flesh of the bastard Jacob Evertsen (Pimelepterus fuscus) is
well flavoured and very nice. This fish is of a uniform dusky brown
colour. It feeds on shell-fish.
The galleon fish (Dipterodon capensis) is more plentiful in the
western division of the Cape Colony; it is highly esteemed as food
and always fetches a good price. It is, however, disliked by some on
account of the many black veins traversing its flesh, and is at times
rather unwholesome, from being too rich and requiring good
digestive organs.
The elft-fish (Temnodon saltator) is uniformly lead coloured, shaded
with dark green on its back. From leaping now and then out of the
water it has obtained its name of saltator (jumper). It is held in great
esteem as a table fish, and the younger individuals are truly deemed
a dainty.
There are several species of mullet recorded as inhabitants of the
bays and rivers of the Cape Colony. All of them are caught with the
net. They make good table fish, but are more frequently salted or
smoke-dried (under the name of bokkoms) like the herring, and thus
preserved, form a very considerable article of home consumption as
well as of export.
The klip-fish (Blennius versicolor, Pappe) is greatly reputed for its
flesh, which is nice, well flavoured, and wholesome.
The flesh of the bagger (Bagrus capensis) is extremely delicate, and
bears a greater resemblance to that of the eel than that of any other
sea fish in the colony. Owing to its ugliness, this curious fish, which
hides itself among stones in muddy water the better to entrap its
unsuspecting prey, is from popular prejudice less prized than it
deserves.