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Studies in Systems, Decision and Control 32
Aleksander Sładkowski
Wiesław Pamuła Editors
Intelligent
Transportation
Systems –
Problems and
Perspectives
Studies in Systems, Decision and Control
Volume 32
Series editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
e-mail: kacprzyk@ibspan.waw.pl
About this Series
The series “Studies in Systems, Decision and Control” (SSDC) covers both new
developments and advances, as well as the state of the art, in the various areas of
broadly perceived systems, decision making and control-quickly, up to date and
with a high quality. The intent is to cover the theory, applications, and perspec-
tives on the state of the art and future developments relevant to systems, decision
making, control, complex processes and related areas, as embedded in the fields of
engineering, computer science, physics, economics, social and life sciences, as well
as the paradigms and methodologies behind them. The series contains monographs,
textbooks, lecture notes and edited volumes in systems, decision making and con-
trol spanning the areas of Cyber-Physical Systems, Autonomous Systems, Sensor
Networks, Control Systems, Energy Systems, Automotive Systems, Biological Sys-
tems, Vehicular Networking and Connected Vehicles, Aerospace Systems, Automa-
tion, Manufacturing, Smart Grids, Nonlinear Systems, Power Systems, Robotics,
Social Systems, Economic Systems and other. Of particular value to both the con-
tributors and the readership are the short publication timeframe and the world-wide
distribution and exposure which enable both a wide and rapid dissemination of
research output.
Intelligent Transportation
Systems – Problems
and Perspectives
13
Editors
Aleksander Sładkowski Wiesław Pamuła
Department of Logistics and Mechanical Department of Transport Systems
Handling and Traffic Engineering
Silesian University of Technology Silesian University of Technology
Katowice Katowice
Poland Poland
The term “intelligent transport system” is used to name the integration of control,
information and communication technologies with transport infrastructure. ITS
covers all modes of transport and takes into account the dynamic interaction of all
constituents of the transport system. A transport system can be considered effec-
tive if it is capable of linking all sources of data in the system to produce valuable
information. This information is the basis for control and management decisions
which are made by transport users and operators. The potential of Intelligent
Transport Systems lies in their wide variety of applications in different modes of
transport.
The editors aim was to present the discussion of problems encountered in the
deployment of ITS. This discussion places emphasis on the early tasks of design-
ing and proofing the concept of integration of technologies in ITS. The book com-
prises two parts.
The first part concentrates on the design problems of urban ITS. It is divided
into five chapters.
The first chapter reviews the challenges of incorporating ICT for establishing
a smart transport system as an autonomic entity and to ensure a high reliability of
functioning. Reliability is essential since most other services of the living environ-
ment smart city, rely on transport systems. The chapter gives an overview on the
state of research based on current literature and recent publications of the authors.
The next chapter emphasizes the problems of designing the ITS for transition to
“green” transport. The definition of the environmentally friendly transport is out-
lined using EU and UN transport policy documents. The term management system
is stressed as vital for reaching the goals of such transport. Different aspects of
managing the data flow within the system are discussed. Especially the interface
between vehicles and infrastructure as the source of data for elaboration of control
decisions is presented.
Żochowska and Karoń in Chap. “ITS Services Packages as a Tool for
Managing Traffic Congestion in Cities” discuss strategies for managing conges-
tion using packages of ITS services. Congestion management is a vital problem in
urban transport systems greatly contributing to the efficiency of ITS. The authors
v
vi Preface
The book provides ideas for deployment which may be developed by scientists
and engineers engaged in the design of Intelligent Transport Systems. It can also
be used in the training of specialists, students and post-graduate students in univer-
sities and transport high schools.
Aleksander Sładkowski
Wiesław Pamuła
Contents
The Traffic Flow Prediction Using Bayesian and Neural Networks. . . . . . 105
Teresa Pamuła and Aleksander Król
J. Schlingensiepen (*)
TH Ingolstadt, Ingolstadt, Germany
e-mail: joern@schlingensiepen.com
URL: http://www.thi.de
F. Nemtanu
“POLITEHNICA” University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
e-mail: fnemtanu@yahoo.com
R. Mehmood
King Khalid University, Abha, Saudi Arabia
e-mail: R.Mehmood@gmail.com
L. McCluskey
University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK
e-mail: t.l.mccluskey@hud.ac.uk
Mobility of people and goods is a key challenge for the future. Transport is one of
the world’s largest industrial sectors, but today’s road transport system are already
fully loaded. The cost of congestion alone estimated at Euro 100 billion per year
in the EU [4].
Following the Communication from the Commission Europe 2020—A strat-
egy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth [5] European Union has set three
priorities:
• Smart growth: developing an economy based on knowledge and innovation.
• Sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more
competitive economy.
• Inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and
territorial cohesion.
Following this agenda causes some socio-technological issues. Smartness will
cause a higher grade of automation like autonomous systems and the question of
liability for these systems is not clear (and there is not much public discussion
about this)—today the UN-Convention on Road Traffic Vienna [6] permits autono-
mous vehicles in general—and of course the question of privacy in a world all sys-
tems serving us are highly integrated has to be discussed.
Beside this legal and sociological issues we need to think about new ways in
providing infrastructure, not only in case of transportation, but since this is the
main underlying service it is the enabler for all other services or function and
therefore we focus on how transport systems can help optimizing the overall
system.
Autonomic Transport Management Systems—Enabler for Smart Cities ... 5
Since mass transportation does not fulfill the demands in personal transport and
individual good distribution future transport systems will be multi-modal, com-
bined transport systems including cars, vans and trucks as well as buses, trains and
other public transport vehicles.
Today’s systems of road traffic flow are affected by the outcome of individual
driving decisions, often assisted by personalized navigation and information-
providing devices. Even in future actors in those systems will make their own
local decisions by human passengers or local decision engines. Therefore vehicles
and passengers need to be integrated in those systems by mobile devices/control-
lers (so called on board units) and new requirements on vehicles and traffic man-
agement systems are coming up. The spreading of incorporated units doing local
decisions causes using distributed software system architecture and the main pur-
pose for this distributed system resp. its backbone is providing current data to the
local decision engines in a fast and reliable way.
Autonomic Transport Management Systems (ATMS) face those problems and
provide a new approach for establishing transportation networks.
According to [7] the core function of a Smart City is an open, inter-operable and
scalable platform that provides intelligent infrastructure functionality as a service
and allows for optimal resource management. Figure 1 shows the main aspects of
open inter-operable infrastructure for a smart city.
The concept of Smart Cities needs a flexible partnership between public and pri-
vate sectors as well as diverse industries such as telecommunication, energy pro-
viders, manufacturers and suppliers to ensure improvements in mobility, energy
consumption, governance and social cohesion in European cities [8, 9]. At present
the modal split of transport in Europe is dominated by passenger cars (73.4 % com-
pared to just 1.4 % for tram and metro combined). According to the World Health
Organisation, some 40 million people in the 115 largest cities in the EU are exposed
to air exceeding WHO air quality guideline values for at least one pollutant [10].
Expectation on Smart Transport is to reduce this pollution and the related
health risks in order to improve quality of life in urban areas while providing a
better service to the inhabitants by fulfilling personal demands in an easy to use,
flexible and cost-efficient way.
The user experience while using smart city service has to be designed in a way
user gets a better service respective his needs are fulfilled with less effort/time
consumption and a minimum of interaction needed. Industrial users will require a
high reliability and adherence to schedules to integrate general transport system in
their supply chain and production lines.
This leads to the main issues to be addressed:
• Resources need to be allocated predictively
• Allocation of resource has to follow the overall benefit
• Peaks in needs have to be eliminated
• To ensure reliability the overall system need to be fault tolerant, it has to work
even if there are dysfunctions in some areas.
Beside this general requirements there are requirements cause by changes in dif-
ferent areas show up in the following subsections.
Beside this needs for more efficient use of energy, land and other resources in exe-
cution of transport the fundamental changes in industry related to the concept of
industry 4.0 [11] and the internet of things cause new requirements on transport.
Different initiatives like Smart Manufacturing Leadership Coalition [12] or
Zukunftsprojekt Industrie 4.0 [13] propagate different but similar scenarios for
future development in production, the common characteristic are the strong cus-
tomization of products under the conditions of high flexibilized (mass-) pro-
duction. This means products are tailored for specific costumers. As a result
traditional distribution and supply chains using stock house storing standard
Autonomic Transport Management Systems—Enabler for Smart Cities ... 7
products or just-in-time production with long order time are obsolete. A popular
example from Germany for this is myMüsli [14] an online shop to order custom-
ized cereals fitting personal liking. Their product is a personalized granola that is
mixed to the order. There is no way to use classic stock and of course the costumer
expect his granola for the breakfast next morning. If we take this sample as a first
step on a way to an industry providing built to order products only like stated in
[2, 15, 16] we can assume a high rate of growth in the field of personalized just in
time transport in the next few years.
Beside the transportation of good the personalized travel planning and assistance
dictates additional requirements to the system. Today’s public transport is not
accepted because of a lack of comfort, reliability and time efficiency. Following
[3, 22] this can be done by implementing a Adaptive Travel Planning and
Monitoring system that provides travel planning and support during the travel by
giving advice based on the current traffic situation. Today TrafficCheck.at (a pro-
ject funded by the Austrian ministry responsible for traffic, innovation and tech-
nology) [23] has implemented some of this aspects by using crowd intelligence.
Inhabitants can access this data via a central web portal using their smartphones
and post back their rating to this central data base.
Future smart transport systems shall gain this data directly from the field like
it is done in project mobile [24] (funded by the German Ministry of Education
and research). This project focus on the problem that today’s public transport is
not easy to use by people having mental problems, are disabled or infirm. Traffic
planning today is powered by online time tables calculating the optimal way to use
public transport in terms of time and costs.
8 J. Schlingensiepen et al.
Focusing on optimizing only one aspect of traveling, like described in the section
above, is not suitable for a group of travelers having constraints in using vehicles,
vehicle types or particular stations for health reasons. Since most of those people
are not able to drive a car on their own, making public transport available opens
them a way to get more personal independence. The political agenda is very clear,
the UN-Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities [25] and its national
implementations clearly states the goal allowing this persons to take part in social
and cultural life and in the sample described in Sect. 6 shows, and this means
implementing planning algorithms that are personalized.
3.5 Requirement Sustainability
As already stated in [26] the sustainability of transport systems has four main
issues to be addressed: the (i) energy efficiency (for the same transport activity a
smaller quantity of energy should be consumed), (ii) saving time (the time allo-
cated for transport activity has to be minimized), (iii) saving money (the cost of
transport is reflected in the price of goods not in the quality of them) and (iv) envi-
ronmental aspects (the transport should protect the environment not to destruct it).
The fourth priority area of European ITS Directive [27] is focused on linking the
vehicles with the infrastructure based, especially, on open in-vehicle platform as
well as cooperative systems. That means integration between the vehicles and the
infrastructure. Urban ITS is an important domain of ITS applications and ITS and
Autonomic Road Transport Systems (ARTS [28]) could be tools of solving traf-
fic and mobility problems in cities (Urban ITS Expert Group has already elabo-
rated a set of guidelines oriented on ITS for urban areas—i.e. Guidelines for ITS
Deployment in Urban Areas—Multimodal Information [29]).
One of the keys to increase energy efficiency is avoiding traffic jam or other
interferences of traffic flow. These also will decrease the amount of CO2 emitted
by traffic as these numbers show: On the one hand in 2007 the CO2 emissions
caused by traffic jams (not including inappropriate periods of traffic lights or
additional break usage on heavy loaded roads) in Germany only was 714,000 to
(288 million liters of fuel) or approximately 7 % of the CO2 emissions by passen-
ger cars. On the other hand the recent study Understanding Road Usage Patterns
in Urban Areas [30] shows that, even during peak hours 98 % of the road seg-
ments are underutilized. Therefore, the approach to better utilize existing infra-
structure through better planning of utilization appears promising.
Beside better usage of infrastructure the EU FP7 funded project SARTRE (Safe
Road Trains for the Environment) [31] shows up another approach to minimize
fuel usage. The project aims to encourage a step change in personal transport
Autonomic Transport Management Systems—Enabler for Smart Cities ... 9
usage by developing of road trains called platoons. Platoon members shall benefit
from a better aerodynamic of the overall road train [32]. The planned systems will
facilitating the safe adoption of road trains on unmodified public highways with
interaction with other traffic. A scheme will be developed whereby a lead vehicle
with a professional driver will take responsibility for a platoon. Following vehicles
will enter a semi-autonomous control mode that allows the driver of the following
vehicle to do other things that would normally be prohibited for reasons of safety;
for example, operate a phone, reading a book or watching a movie. As shown in
[33] this approach needs a very reliable vehicle to infrastructure communication
that will be provided by the corporative ICT described in Sect. 7.4 and a flexible
scalable system of sensor integration that will be provided by the overlay network
described in Sects. 7.1–7.3.
To allow an effective traffic management the current traffic situation and operating
grade has to be captured to allow predictions on future situations to hedge deci-
sions made by users, operators and decision engines.
All described aspects a Smart Transport Systems requires a good understand-
ing about the mechanisms traffic of independent and controlled vehicles is organ-
ized and can be influenced by managed infrastructure and service elements like
traffic lights, special trains etc. A pre-condition for Smart Transport System is an
automated decision system to control these influencing element. This means the
system has to incorporate knowledge gained from traffic simulations done during
set up or changing infrastructure or while optimizing the current system as well as
knowledge gained from real-time in-line simulation that is fed with current state of
the overall system and allows prediction on the near time behavior in terms of road
load, congestions, speed and resulting travel time. An overview on current state in
these different kind of simulations can be found in Sect. 6.
The main issue while implementing those kind of systems is providing a good
basis for decision to the decision engines and in-line simulations. The best basis
for decisions is knowing about the current state of the overall system. That is why
the data acquisition and the networks transporting the information about the cur-
rent situation in the field are an important aspect of ATMS.
Figure 7 shows that decisions in the vehicle are made by the on board support
decision engine or the driver. Today and in the near future for legal reasons and
reasons of user acceptance all decisions at all levels will be made by the driver,
so the information of ITS are incorporated in the decision-making process as
suggestions, provided to the driver by a mobile device called adviser. Studies of
University of Twente have shown that the drivers’ trust in the advice of the system
is an essential requirement and this confidence is often absent [34]. Drivers make
decisions (e.g. choosing lanes, speed adjustment) on the basis of personal experi-
ences. Therefore the effect of not trusting the advice is boosted, because in road
10 J. Schlingensiepen et al.
traffic systems the results of decisions that are inauspicious for the overall system
are not hurting the decision maker but other road users.
Figure 8 derived from [26] shows some examples for actions respectively deci-
sions made at the different levels, details on this can be found in [26].
At this point it is obvious that reliability of data is essential and the most impor-
tant requirement to the ATMS. Therefore the COST ARTS group propose usage
of the principles of autonomic systems. Establishing an autonomic system gives
some great advantages in increasing reliability of the overall systems. Autonomic
Computing was launched by IBM [35] and can be viewed as a challenge to embed
desirable self-managing intelligent properties into large systems to cope with
the problems of their inherent complexity. Autonomic systems will help solving
today’s core problems in engineering new transport systems: their costly con-
figuration and maintenance, high operating complexity, suboptimal operation,
and the problem of embedding and maintaining safety and environmental condi-
tions within the operational parameters of the controlling system. Autonomic
Computing integrates ideas from several areas of AI including automated reason-
ing, machine learning and automated planning, and implementations often draw
on distributed AI technologies such as intelligent agents.
Before proposing autonomic systems as a holistic approach there was already
research into the many challenges of implementing autonomic behavior in trans-
portation systems, and what has been done has been carried out in a range of
fragmented research areas. Some pilot studies concerning road transport systems
technologies use agent-based technology [36–39]. Utilizing a more centralized
notion of self-maintenance, theory refinement algorithms for automatically evolv-
ing a requirements model of air traffic control criteria was developed in work
sponsored by the UK NATS [40]. Concentrating on self-organization is the focus
of Organic Computing, a large cooperative research effort sponsored by the DFG
[41]. Its goals are the development and control of emergent and self-organizing
technical systems. In the area of Organic Computing several projects have investi-
gated the feasibility of adaptive, intelligent traffic light controllers and their ability
to self-organise, e.g. to form progressive signal systems [42]. Systems with auto-
nomic capabilities will help alleviate many of today’s problems associated with
life cycle management of complex systems. Autonomic systems embody self-
assessment and self-management abilities that enable the system to assess its own
state, then adapt or heal itself in response to that assessment.
The interface between system and owner is set at a very high level: the owner
sets out goals, policies or service levels that the system must follow, and the sys-
tem translates these into its system functions resulting in a change of behavior.
IBM defines four areas of autonomic functions: (i) self-configuration through
automatic configuration of components; (ii) self-healing through automatic
Autonomic Transport Management Systems—Enabler for Smart Cities ... 11
The project mobile funded by The German Federal Ministry of economy and
energy1 in order to reach the goals of the UN-Convention on the Rights of Persons
with Disabilities [44] aims to develop a system to support disabled and elderly
people while using public transports. Within this project and approach for person-
alized travel planning was developed and introduced to public in [22]. This kind of
planning systems seems to be interesting being included in an ATMS. Details
about the project at all can be found in [45].
1Project mobile is part of initiative from door to door [43] funded by BMWi, as a mobility initia-
tive for the public passenger transport of the future. Within this initiative, a set of projects were
started that address different aspects of public transportation.
12 J. Schlingensiepen et al.
Today’s public transport is not easy to use by people having mental problems or
are disabled. Traffic planning today is powered by online time tables calculating the
optimal way to use public transport in terms of time and costs. Therefore usually a
graph or petri net representing the public transport network is set up and algorithms
taken from graph theory or operations research are used to find optimal routes [46].
An implicit assumption in this is that optimal has the same meaning for all stake-
holders, e.g. minimizing travel time. So the travel planer can use a common graph
for all requests and generate look up tables to guaranty short answering times.
This is not suitable for a group of travelers having constraints in using vehi-
cles, vehicle types or particular stations for health reasons. Since most of those
people are not able to drive a car on their own, making public transport availa-
ble opens them a way to get more personal independence. Therefore in mobile a
system was developed that allows undertaking personal constraints in route plan-
ning. Therefore a system that describes vehicles, stations and personal attributes
of mentioned travelers was developed. This allows generation of a second graph
representing the public transport network not in dimension of time and costs but
in preferences and dislike of a given traveler. This second graph is overlayed the
standard graph to get a personalized graph that allows finding a suitable route
respecting the constraints of the user.
5.1 Investigation Area
About 28 million people use the public passenger transport in Germany daily, this
shows the good acceptance of a well meshed traffic system. The Verkehrsverbund
Rhein-Ruhr (abbreviated VRR) is the public transport association covering the
area of the Rhine-Ruhr conurbation in Germany. It was founded on 1 January
1980, and is Europe’s largest body of such kind, covering an area of some
5,000 km2 with more than seven million inhabitants, spanning as far as Dorsten in
the north, Dortmund in the east, Langenfeld in the south, and Mönchengladbach
and the Dutch border in the west [47]. Since this infrastructure is already estab-
lished this area is a good place to justify investment to open this service for people
which are not able to use it today. And the dense mesh provided by the compa-
nies running VRR is the perfect area to introduce a system that provide support for
disabled people with means that support them during traveling in public transport
systems [45, 48]. Especially, the local transportation system is addressed where a
mixture of different transportation means (e.g., bus or tram) are used. As a result,
the major problem is to support people while changing vehicles.
During the first assessments within the project, it came out that a major prob-
lem of the people is lack of information and a proper handling of uncertainty. As a
result, a major goal of the project is to…
• …provide the traveler with routes that meet their individual capabilities, restric-
tions, needs and preferences; this covers a wide range of issues like avoiding over-
crowded buses, inability to uses stairs, inabilities to use complex bus stations etc.
Autonomic Transport Management Systems—Enabler for Smart Cities ... 13
• …provide travelers with timely information about their current schedule (what
happens next, when to leave the vehicle, how much time is left until the con-
necting vehicle arrives, etc.)
• …help people locating themselves, especially with respect to bus stations or
other locations important for the current journey; this especially addresses iden-
tifying the right bus station on the appropriate side of the street or within a com-
plex bus terminal station
• …identifying transportation vehicles in order to decide whether or not to enter a
vehicle; this must be done in a way so that the traveler is sure that he enters the
right bus or tram
• …inform people when to prepare and when to leave vehicle during a trip
• …identifying stressful situations to the traveler and calming down people when
needed
This findings lead to three problems to solve: (i) The actual advice generated by
the system must be customizable to match the individual needs of the traveler and
(ii) presentation and interaction with the system must be adaptable to user’s capa-
bilities and to ensure this (iii) system needs to know very precisely where the user
is. All problems are addressed in project mobile e.g. by indoor-navigation [49, 50]
or personalized user interface design [51, 52]. For the functions that needs to be
incorporated into an ATMS we focus on how the back-end system can generate
personalized advices based on the current traffic situation and road maps.
The people within the target groups that are addressed in this projects differ sig-
nificantly with respect to their capabilities and needs. In general two major groups
are addressed: people with mental problems and people with physical disabilities.
The group of mentally restricted people suffer from a wide range of problems
that start from intellectual restrictions like illiteracy or in-capabilities of dealing
with concepts of time. These people need a strong support and a user interface
that especially addresses their deficiencies. For example, speech output or sim-
ple graphical symbols must be used if the traveler cannot read. On the other hand,
there are also people that e.g. are capable of using a smart-phone without any
problems but may be easily distracted. As a result, special means are needed to
draw their attention towards the current travel related issues.
For the group of physically disabled people, we especially address tempo-
rary restrictions (e.g., caused by the surgery). For these cases, people that usually
travel by their own car are temporarily forced to use public transport and often
suffer from a lack of knowledge and training how to use public transportation. As
a result, information about where to reach the next bus station, which vehicle to
enter and when to leave are the major aspects that are to be addressed.
1. Users have different needs and preferences that can be expressed by attributes
assigned to this user. To allow dealing with different type of users so called per-
sonas where defined. This method taken from User Experience Design allows
description of typical users an their behaviors in order to have a better under-
standing of the needs during development without referring to real persons [54].
Users have Tolerance settings describing the user’s tolerance to route changes,
idle time along the trip, crowded areas, noisy surroundings and visual contact
with other people. Movement settings describing the user’s motoric capabilities
which includes the walking speed and endurance as well as the ability to take
steps, use escalators or elevators. This includes also the demand of the user to
get a free seat or special places at stations or within transport vehicles.
2. Vehicle types have different attributes describing the way a special type of
vehicle can be used, e.g. a low floor bus can be used by wheelchair users, while
a common bus cannot be used. So the most important attribute of vehicle type
are height, width, steps and existence of special places.
3. Vehicles have different attributes describing the way a particular vehicle can
be used. Some buses may have identification support, while other don’t. In this
case users that are reliant on vehicle identification support are not able to use
this vehicle.
4. Stations are the nodes in the network having different attributes describing the
way they can be used for start and end of travel or during changing vehicles.
In terms of personalized route planning the most important attributes describ-
ing a station are steps, daylight, security and load. The existence of steps with-
out an elevator makes a station unusable for wheel chair users. Daylight and
load has to be added to cover needs of users having mental problems and may
panic in crowded stations or vehicles or on using an under-bridge. Load attrib-
ute dependents on time of use. Since most of the users in our target group are
defenseless the attribute security became very important during travel planning.
5. Links between the nodes are the traffic lines used by the user during traveling
a calculated route. In terms of personalized route planning the most important
attributes describing a link are the load, security, costs and speed. While costs
and speed are usual attributes in route planning, the load and security has to be
added to meet user’s requirements (see above).
To allow easier management of attribution of entities a class system was developed
it consists of:
• Persona describing a stereotypical user which is similar to real passengers [54]
and are constructed with different behaviors, profiles and objectives. A per-
sona does not correspond to a real person, but represents a typical user, which
is composed of different features and behavior. Inside the system every user is
composed of the different behaviors of persona, where specific needs overwrite
the attributes of the assigned persona.
• Infrastructure Elements are all elements in the public transport system, like
Vehicles, Vehicle Type, Lines, Links, and Stations etc. Those element provide
facility for given needs, therefore the Infrastructure Elements are designed as a
complement to Persona.
Autonomic Transport Management Systems—Enabler for Smart Cities ... 15
To allow comparison of routes and find a suitable route for a user a penalty system
was developed to overlay the speed and cost optimal routes with the needs of the
user. To calculate this weighted route efforts each infrastructure element used in
a route is loaded by a user specific penalty summand (e.g. stations) or a user spe-
cific penalty factor (e.g. links, vehicle use). In reality not all attributes for stations
and users are available since some of them may not be suitable or not gathered.
Therefore a system that allows flexible calculation based on the available informa-
tion was developed. All attributes are normalized and ordered in dimensions. E.g.
the need of a user for an elevator instead of stairs and the existence of an elevator
in a station are the same dimension. Inside a dimension the attribute values are
normalized, like shown in Table 1.
The system to calculate this weights works in four steps:
• Determine the specific descriptions of user’s needs from Persona, Class of
Persona and personal settings.
• Determine the specific description of possibly used infrastructure element.
• Calculate a penalty factor on usage of each possibly used infrastructure element.
• Calculate the route efforts while using weighted speed and costs.
Determination of the specific attributes and values for a user is done by col-
lecting values for each dimension from the class system, by the following algo-
rithm: Starting with personal record, if dimension attribute is set take it, go to next
dimension, if attribute is not set go on with the record of the class this record is
based on. Reaching the root class without getting an attribute means this dimen-
sion is not described for this user. Figure 2 show determination of attribute values.
Cu1 Cu2 Cu3 ... Cud Cid ... Ci3 Ci2 Ci1
C User Class
e.g. Mental Problems 2 2 2 4 4 0 4 8 0 Infrastructure
e.g. Station C
depends on
depends on
C User Class
e.g. Disease Pattern 4 0 2 4 Infrastructure Class
e.g. Type of station C
depends on
depends on
P Personal User Record
4 Station or Link Record
P
Calculation Record
2 4 4 4 0 0 2 8 4 Calculation Record
cd=
0
c...=
2
c2=
-4
c1=
-2
Fig. 2 Using class system to determine user and infrastructure element specific attributes
m
0
tuR = pux tvx + (tsx + pux wu ) (4)
x=1 x=1
Equation 3 shows the calculation of time consumption for a route (tR) as a sum
of time using m vehicles (tvx) and waiting/change vehicles at o stations (tsx).
Equation 4 shows the calculation of user specific weighted time consumptions
(tuR) using calculated penalties (pux) and personal (user specific) weight factor
(wu). During route planning both has to be used since the planning of change vehi-
cles has to be done with real travel time and not the weighted travel time.
One of the most important steps in delivering mobility is to predict the state of
the traffic as well as the prediction of the state of transport system in urban area.
Based on these predictions a decision making process is set as a main process hav-
ing the role of providing the mobility services for citizens and freights. ATMS as
an autonomic system has to focus on this type of prediction for internal decision
making model and a simulation environment has to be defined internally.
At this moment the decision making process related to traffic and transport sys-
tems has an important component based on various software platforms which per-
mit to model the traffic state as well as the state of transport systems. The chain of
using models as tools for prediction is shown in Fig. 3.
The elaboration of a model is an activity which is based on two categories
of inputs: the existing models and experiences, as a reference for a model, and
information from traffic a transport systems, this category forms the nucleon of
18 J. Schlingensiepen et al.
Simulation environment
Simulated model
Outputs
the model (based on this information a model is elaborated). After the elaboration
of a model the elaboration of a simulated model in a simulation environment is
needed. This simulated model is created based on software platform which is able
to facilitate the usage of the model to create various scenarios based on traffic and
transport inputs. These scenarios could support in an efficient manner the decision
making process.
6.2 Simulation Environments
A simulation environment is a set of tools and simple models which is able to sup-
port the construction of complex models [55]. The majority of existing simulation
environments are developed based on software platforms.
Today’s software platforms2 are able to create an environment for traffic and
transport models and the following functionalities are built in:
• Analysis of transport demand—based on the 4 step model [60] (trip genera-
tion, trip distribution, mode choice, route choice) this analysis is the first step in
providing mobility services, and the system has to respond to this demand. The
4 step model is shown in Fig. 4.
• Network modelling—modelling of various transport systems, modes of trans-
port, user classes in the context of transport network as well as sub-network
generation.
• Public transport assignment procedures and operations—several exam-
ples of functionalities are: timetable-based assignment, headway-based assign-
ment, line blocking, modeling complex fare systems in one model, line costing
calculation.
2Examples of today’s software platforms for creation of models in simulation environments are:
Transport
system
Activity
system
All decisions are made based on models and the decisions in ATMS has to be
taken in a self made manner (the operator as decision maker is replaced by the
subsystems of the system).
The autonomic system has to use the simulation environments in its internal
decision making process and to model the traffic and transport system to do the
self-* properties without any external intervention. The functionalities of a software
platform could be integrated as main part of decision making “brain” of the system.
In an autonomic traffic management system a hybrid simulation is able to be
implemented as a combination from a classical simulation approach and some real
components of the system [61, 62]. The system is able to self configure the model
for simulation using real or simulated components depends of the level of hybrid
simulation selected:
• level 1—one simulated component and multi real components;
• level 2—multi simulated components and multi real components;
• level 3—multi simulated components and one real component;
• level 4—only simulated components are taken into consideration in the simu-
lated model.
The integration of simulation of models in ATMS is shown in Fig. 5.
20 J. Schlingensiepen et al.
Data processing
Model's inputs
Decisions (outputs)
The ATMS system collects autonomous data from sensors, processes this data
and provides information/inputs to a model and creates a simulated model based
on internal software platform. Information/outputs from the simulated model are
transmitted to decision making process and ATMS is able to emit decision inside
of the system.
7 Architecture of ATMS
overlay network
sensors
to and consumed from the system are seen as services, where the infrastructure has
to ensure that services can be found in the system and can be called by other com-
ponents. Usually this is done by implementing different components in a way they
meet a contract/service description resp. implementing an interface and so can be
replaced by alternative implementations. To allow service consumers finding a
suitable service provider services and their instance are listed in directories called
service registry and can be found using a lookup function provided by a service
broker [63, 64].
The most common understanding of services in this so called service oriented
architecture (SOA) is treating the service layer as a set of functions callable from
different systems. These calls are e.g. handing over a process to another system,
using a software component to do some calculations, get information from a data-
base etc. On implementation level this lead to the limitation, services do provide
functions a service consumer can call and get some result. Today’s very popular
implementations of SOA using web services shows this concept. In fact most peo-
ple use web service and SOA as synonymous.
We extend our earlier work [26] and propose an ATMS architecture as depicted
in Fig. 7. The figure shows that the ATMS back-bone has the general structure of
a distributed system. The separation between vehicles as moving parts and infra-
structure as the fixed parts is common. On both sites different information like data
about the current state (mainly collected by sensors) and plans (input by users and
operators) are collected. Based on this information it is possible to derive control
factors for the overall system. Therefore, this information must be brought together
and evaluated. Therefore a general subdivision of communication in vehicle-to-
vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) is commonly used. The main goal
of the overall system is fulfilling the plans of the users (road users, public trans-
port users and traffic system operators) while minimizing the number of resources.
Based on the aggregated data both the infrastructure and the vehicle make predic-
tions on the future state of the road and make local or global decisions. Figures 7
and 8 gives some examples of modules that interact through the ATMS Backbone.
The number of direct interactions between components is minimized since interac-
tion shall be done using data aggregation provided by the backbone. As seen in the
figure the plans of infrastructure provider are to optimize the utilization grade of the
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headstrong rebels should be swept away by the stroke of its formidable
wing!
This law, drafted entirely by him, with its every villainy cunningly
concealed, or placed in the light of a sacred duty, and as the only means of
assuring public safety, Robespierre would himself lay before the
Convention. The deputies, who had been insulted in the person of their
President by that brawling meddler arrested on the Place de la Révolution,
could not but pass the law, after such a scandalous scene. That public insult
of the riotous rebel was an excellent pretext. It would help him to take them
by surprise, to wring from them the vote which would place entirely at his
mercy not only his rivals who had expressed their opinions so freely, but
also that rude scoffer, already doomed to die.
His trial would not last long! But before his death he should be brought
before Robespierre. He should lay bare the most secret recesses of his soul,
denounce his accomplices, and disclose his connections and parentage.
Such an insult, the cruellest Robespierre had as yet sustained, demanded an
exemplary penalty. The death of the man himself would not suffice; he
should pay with the heads of every one connected with him in any way—
accomplices, friends, and relations. Ah! the wretch, he had sacrificed not
only his own life, but the lives of all near and dear to him!
Robespierre found the family so bright and affable that his reappearance
was not embarrassing. He had but to explain vaguely the cause of his
indisposition, which was quite gone. Oh, yes! every one could see that!
Why, he looked so well, so full of life! What a good thing it was, after all,
to have had a day's rest!
But this conspiracy of smiles, which had put him at his ease so quickly,
soon began to irritate him. The whole family racked their brains to find
scraps of news and items of interest outside the one all-absorbing subject of
his thoughts. When the dessert came on, however, Robespierre himself
turned the conversation to the carefully avoided theme, and asked their
candid opinion of the previous day's fête.
And longing for sympathy, he opened his heart to them; he had been
disappointed in his dearest hopes; everything must begin over again. Lebas
interrupted him.
"I am so far from exaggerating that I have passed the whole day in
preparing my revenge."
Here they were interrupted by a knock at the door, and young Duplay
rose to open it.
But it was not a surprise at all. The demoiselles Duplay had invited
Buonarotti to supper, a valuable and ever-welcome guest, in so far that he
played the harpsichord to perfection, and used to accompany Lebas, who
was always ready to show his talent on the violin. Buonarotti was an
original character, a Corsican by birth, claiming descent from Michaël-
Angelo. He was an ardent revolutionist, and an enthusiastic admirer of
Robespierre. He had begged to be excused from accepting the invitation to
dinner, but promised to come in afterwards to cheer up his friend.
The family took advantage of his entrance to leave the table and move
to the drawing-room, where music was soon started, in spite of the terrible
longing Buonarotti had to talk politics, and to give Robespierre an account
of the different opinions of the fête which he had picked up here and there.
But they had dragged him coaxingly to the harpsichord, laying a sonata of
Mozart before him, of which Lebas had already struck the first bars on his
violin.
But that evening he was quite preoccupied, and gave but little attention
to the music, as he sat with his back to the mantelpiece, entirely absorbed in
the voluminous correspondence which had just reached him—letters,
reports, denunciations and the like. He sorted them feverishly, handing them
one by one to Simon the wooden-legged, who stood near him, either to
classify them or to throw them in the waste-paper basket. Mother Duplay,
ensconced in a deep armchair, was indulging in her after-dinner nap, whilst
old Duplay smoked his pipe, leaning on the window ledge to watch the
departure of some of the workmen kept late over some pressing work.
Young Maurice Duplay ran backwards and forwards from one group to
another, as lively and active as a squirrel.
Buonarotti, still at the harpsichord, was now playing the hymn to the
Supreme Being, by Gossec. The air fell on Robespierre's ears and brought
back the previous day's fête to his memory: the procession from the gardens
of the Tuileries; the affectation of the deputies in keeping so far behind him
to make it appear that he had already assumed the role of Dictator; the
whole plot which he felt was undermining the popular rejoicings; and the
untoward scene of that final insult. All this and more was suggested by that
hymn composed to celebrate his apotheosis, but reminding him to-day of
his defeat. His defeat! yes, nothing less than defeat! These anonymous
letters, inspired by hatred and envy, proved it only too plainly, and it was
emphasised by the reports of his police agents, in whose obsequious
language a certain embarrassment could be detected.
Just then Didier, the chief agent, entered, bringing the latest news, and
when Robespierre asked him his impression of the fête, he declared it to
have been perfect.
And he confessed that the young fanatic's cry of "Down with the
scaffold!" at the fête, seemed to have been trembling on the lips of a
considerable number of the spectators, who were more than half inclined to
protect the insulter from the violence of the crowd.
"They are heartily sick of it," he continued. "Another proof of this is the
protest the inhabitants near the Bastille have been making against its
erection there. The Committee of Public Safety had to see into the affair to-
day in your absence, and have decided that the guillotine should be
transported to the Barrière du Trône."
"But how can they go quicker?" asked Duplay, who regarded his
juryman's duties as sacred.
"You shall know to-morrow. I must first of all make an example of that
young fanatic, with whom it is time to deal."
And turning to Didier he asked—
"Where is he?"
"A few steps from here, at the police station of the Rue Saint-Florentin,
where Héron has locked him up, pending your orders."
"Very well! Bid Héron bring him here; I wish to examine him instantly."
"And now, I hope you will take a little notice of us," she said, coming
towards him in half petulant, half coquettish mood.
Robespierre, softening at her approach, kissed her hand. Only let him
have the time to answer a letter from his friend Saint-Just, and he would be
entirely at her disposal. And he seated himself at the round table to write.
Only Buonarotti played now. Lebas had laid down his violin, and whilst
filling his pipe asked Robespierre for news of the Army of the North, where
Saint-Just then was. All was going well there. Robespierre had also good
news from his brother Augustin, then at Lyons, and on the point of
returning. Augustin warmly recommended to him a young general of the
artillery whom he had known at Nice, and who had already distinguished
himself at Toulon.
"Bonaparte?" he said.
And he began his letter to Saint-Just, at the same time lending an ear to
Lebas, who was telling Duplay of certain rumours coming from the army of
the aspiration of some of its chiefs to the dictatorship. But Duplay
interrupted him—
Duplay searched in his pockets, and having found the letter, handed it to
Robespierre, who continued writing.
Lebas took the letter, and going to the mantel-piece, commenced to read
it by the light of a candle. Duplay, in the act of filling his pipe, looked over
his shoulder.
Robespierre had now finished his letter to Saint-Just, and whilst closing
it, asked—
"It is a woman who supplicates you for her niece imprisoned with her,"
answered Lebas.
"She also supplicates you for her son," added Lebas, still perusing the
note.
But Duplay took the letter from Lebas's hands, twisted it into a spill,
and ignited it at the candle to light his pipe.
Robespierre now rose and went towards the harpsichord, where he was
received with joyous exclamations.
"And the words are by a friend of yours," added Madame Lebas, with a
mysterious air.
Robespierre, puzzled, asked the name of this friend, but Victoire wished
him to guess, and when he demurred a battle of words ensued, in which his
stronger will prevailed.
"Maximilian Robespierre!"
The Incorruptible smiled. What were they talking about? He the author
of a poem!
"Yes."
Ah, yes! They were right. Robespierre remembered the piece now. He
had composed it at Arras, and read it in public before the Society of the
Rosati, of which he was a member. He went on with the verse from
memory, while Cornélie followed in the book—
"Si flatteur que soit ton miroir,
Sois charmante avec modestie,
Fais semblant de n'en rien savoir."
What! had Buonarotti really set that to music? Robespierre was very
curious to hear it.
Madame Lebas, seated at the piano, struck the first chord of the
accompaniment, and Buonarotti commenced the song. Every one had
gathered round the singer.
Ah, how pretty it was! How well the music chimed in with the words!
What simplicity! What grace!
Suddenly every one stopped. An ominous cry came through the open
window—
It was the voice of newsvendors calling out the result of the day's sitting
at the Revolutionary Tribunal. The Incorruptible showed signs of
uneasiness. Buonarotti had already begun the second verse—
"Sur le pouvair de tes appas
Demeure toujours alarmée..."
"Oh, it's all right! I expected him. He is bringing the young villain of
yesterday's fête."
"Ah yes," said the women, "the chouan of the Place de la Concorde!"
and they looked curiously towards the door, at which the new-comers were
now knocking.
The agent did not know much. The day before, while under arrest, the
prisoner had let fall some words by which Héron understood that his
mother, arrested with a young girl he loved, was threatened with the
scaffold. But since his imprisonment he had been completely mute. No one
had been able to draw a word from him, and things would have very likely
remained thus had not Madame Beaugrand, a lodging-house keeper of the
Rue du Rocher, come to the police-station for the purpose of obtaining
some particulars of the arrest, the news of which had reached her. From the
description of the young man she fancied he might be one of her lodgers,
who had arrived the day before, and inscribed himself under the name of
Germain, blacksmith's apprentice. Brought face to face with the prisoner,
she exclaimed immediately, "Oh yes! it is he! most certainly!"
"He had none! Not even a passport! They had only found in his
possession a set of keys, some paper-money in assignats, a pocket-book,
and some small change in a purse." As he spoke, Héron placed these
articles on the table.
Duplay examined them, the women watching with great interest the
while. The carpenter declared it to be very possible, as the hands looked
used to handling wood and iron.
The Incorruptible then stated his suspicions more precisely. The man
was perhaps a chouan, come in disguise from Vendée to stab him in the
excitement of the fête!
The women cried out in horror at the thought, and added, "Of course he
was not without accomplices!"
"Why didn't you say so, then? Be quick and open it!"
Héron tried a set of keys, and after some delay the valise was unlocked.
"Go and examine them by the mantelpiece under the lamp," Robespierre
continued, "and tell me their contents."
The curiosity of the women had now reached its height. Héron had
drawn out a gold medallion, encircled with small pearls.
The medallion was opened, and found to contain a lock of fair hair, with
the initials M.T. The jewel was handed round, admired, and examined
carefully, giving rise to all sorts of reflections, in Olivier's presence, who
looked on apparently unconcerned.
"You will not tell me, I suppose, that there is nothing extraordinary for a
sum of money like that and such jewels to be found in the possession of an
apprentice?"
Héron insinuated that perhaps he had stolen them, at which Olivier
simply shrugged his shoulders. Duplay endorsed Héron's opinion. In fact,
he had not the slightest doubt about it. The young man had stolen them.
"Everything belongs to me! And, since you seem so anxious about it,
know that I am an aristocrat, a royalist, and a chouan!"
"Very well! Since I have owned it, why don't you get quit of me, and
send me forthwith to the scaffold? I am weary of it all!"
But Robespierre calmly told him not to be in such a hurry, for he wished
to know his name. As the young man defied him, saying he would have to
ask elsewhere, for he should never learn it from him, Robespierre grew
furious. He must have his name, and the names of his accomplices as well,
for he was not single-handed; that was certain!
"And if I have no accomplice, you will find some, I'll be bound!" cried
Olivier ironically. "But you shall not have my name!"
Lebas, having finished the letters, came forward, and Robespierre gave
him a questioning glance. The letters, he said, revealed nothing in
particular. They had been written two or three years ago, and bore no
address or signatures of importance. Two signed Marie Thérèse were
apparently from a young girl, the prisoner's sister or fiancée.
"Then the medallion belongs to her," put in Victoire; "M.T. are the
initials on it."
But these letters revealed nothing, nor did three others signed "Your
mother," couched in terms of endearment and advice. The style was most
certainly that of an aristocrat. Only one letter—dated 1791—gave a slight
indication, a very vague one.
Lebas scanned it once more. It was dated 1791, from a country place in
one of the suburbs of Paris, and addressed to the young man, then a student,
by his grandfather, who seemed also to be his godfather, for he says: "I shall
expect you to-morrow evening, for my fête and yours, the Feast of St.
Olivier."
"Is Olivier, then, his name?" inquired Robespierre, looking at the young
man.
But Lebas continued reading. "The valet, my dear child, will not fetch
you this time. At fifteen a lad ought to be able to travel alone."
"The letter being dated May, 1791, the young man must be now
nineteen," Lebas observed.
Lebas continued: "My travelling-coach will wait for you in the Rue des
Lions, before the door of the hotel."
"There can be only one Rue des Lions in Paris, the Rue des Lions-Saint-
Paul?" interposed Robespierre, more and more impressed, and still looking
intently at the youth.
Lebas went on: "Benoit will open the shutters of the little room leading
out of my study to the garden. In a bookcase, the one surmounted by the
busts of Cicero and Socrates, you will find just within your reach, and will
bring to me, volumes x. and xi. of a set of folios bound in red morocco,
with the title..."
"That is it! Arrêts du Parlement," repeated Lebas; "but how did you
know?"
Robespierre, mastering his feelings, and without taking his eyes off
Olivier, answered with assumed indifference—
"Oh, now we shall hear the whole story!" they all exclaimed, clapping
their hands.
"Certainly you shall," Robespierre replied, "but in order to make sure I
should like to be alone with him. We are too many here; I shall call you
back presently. Let Héron and the police-agents wait in the courtyard."
The prisoner, however, did not heed him, and when Robespierre
repeated his words even more persuasively, and in a trembling voice,
Olivier still paid no attention. Seeing Lebas shrug his shoulders, intimating
that Robespierre was really very good to insist, the Incorruptible explained
—his eyes still fixed on Olivier—that it was but natural for him to show
kindness towards the grandchild of a man whose secretary he had been for
eighteen months.
"They never told you, then?" said Robespierre. "Of course not.... They
loathe my very name, your people, do they not?"
But Olivier interrupted him harshly. Robespierre might harden his heart
again, then! His life was in Robespierre's hands! He could take it if it
pleased him to do so. All the family had been victims to the Revolution: his
grandfather who died of grief, his uncle killed in Vendée, his father mortally
wounded defending the cause of the King....
"But your mother? She is alive; you have not the right to sacrifice her
life!"
"Am I not right in this?" he urged, with deep anxiety. "Is she not
arrested?"
And so the struggle between father and son went on; the former
impatient to learn the woman's hiding-place, the latter firm and unshaken in
his refusal to betray it to one whom he regarded as a tiger seeking his prey.
Olivier smiled in bitter irony. Robespierre need not waste his words. He
well knew he had too much pride to allow any such remembrance to incline
him to leniency. Ah, there were memories in that sweet past, as he called it,
for which his mother would pay with her head! Friendship? Robespierre's
friendship! Why, it paved the road to the scaffold! All his friends had
trodden that deadly path.
A cry of indignation escaped Lebas, but Robespierre quieted him in a
husky voice, himself a prey to the most feverish agitation. The lad's head
had been turned by the chouans! He was not responsible for what he said!
Then turning to Olivier he tried, with a ring of sadness in his voice, to
persuade him that had he been a tyrant he would have punished his
insolence, he would not have attempted to reason with him. But Olivier
remained unmoved. This kindness was assumed, he told himself, to hide
some dastardly plot! Robespierre only wanted to find his mother that he
might avenge her son's insult on herself. In vain the Incorruptible protested,
deeply grieved and wounded. Olivier stoutly maintained his position,
declaring that Robespierre was not a man to pardon any one who had
publicly insulted him with such outspoken contempt and hatred.
But Robespierre signed to him to stop. Hatred? That word in the young
man's mouth sounded like blasphemy. And trying to master himself, that his
voice should not tremble, he asked him—
Olivier again furiously asserted his abhorrence, and was met by the
question—
"Wronged me! ... When have you wronged me?" the young man
repeated. "Wasn't it through you that my mother was..."
What madness! Perhaps at this very moment they were entering the cart
which was to take them to the Revolutionary Tribunal, and the next day to
the scaffold. It was Olivier who was sending them to death, and all because
he was too obstinate to say the word which would save them! He was a
blind, unnatural son; he would kill his own mother!
"Are you so thirsty for her blood?" he cried, hurling at him this last
insult.
"Let us have done with this madman," he said, hurrying towards the
door to call in the police-agents.