Loss and Damage from Climate Change

Concepts Methods and Policy Options

Reinhard Mechler
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Climate Risk Management, Policy and Governance

Reinhard Mechler · Laurens M. Bouwer

Thomas Schinko · Swenja Surminski
JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer Editors

Loss and Damage

from Climate
Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
Climate Risk Management, Policy
and Governance

Series editors
Reinhard Mechler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria
Swenja Surminski, London School of Economics, London, UK
This book series is devoted to the growing body of studies that provide analytical
insight for policy-making and implementation for bridging climate change
adaptation, disaster management and development sectors. It is reflective on all
aspects of the climate risk management process, including assessment, mapping,
identification, communication, implementation, governance and evaluation of
climate risks and management responses.
Topics may span across global, national, regional, sectoral and local scales. The
series invites multi-disciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches, combining
insights from natural science, engineering and social sciences; emphasizing
existing gaps, particularly in the area of decision-making, governance and
international relations.
The series furthermore offers both theoretical and practical contributions, with
the aim to further academic study and thinking, as well as advancing policy making
and implementation of climate risk management processes and tools.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15515

Reinhard Mechler Laurens M. Bouwer
•

Thomas Schinko Swenja Surminski

•

JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
Editors

Loss and Damage

from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
Editors
Reinhard Mechler Thomas Schinko
International Institute for Applied International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis Systems Analysis
Laxenburg, Austria Laxenburg, Austria

Laurens M. Bouwer Swenja Surminski

Deltares London School of Economics
Delft, The Netherlands London, UK

and JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer

International Institute for Applied
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) Systems Analysis
Hamburg, Germany Laxenburg, Austria

ISSN 2510-1390 ISSN 2510-1404 (electronic)

Climate Risk Management, Policy and Governance
ISBN 978-3-319-72025-8 ISBN 978-3-319-72026-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5

Library of Congress Control Number: 2018950207

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019. This book is an open access publication.
Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit
to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if
changes were made.
The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons
license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s
Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the
permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publi-
cation does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the
relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
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authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Foreword I: Perspective from Saint Lucia

In his valedictory address, my son recently quoted a passage from a Dr. Seuss book
that I often read to him and his brother at bedtime: “You have brains in your head.
You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose”.
Words cannot describe how proud I am of both of my courageous young boys and
their well-earned accomplishments and expectations of the bright future ahead. And
yet, I am concerned that this future may not unfold on the small Caribbean island
that my family calls home. I fear that the feet in those shoes will soon be submerged
by rising seas and the direction in which they will be able to steer themselves will
grow more and more limited, as our small island economy continues to be battered
by the effects of climate change. For those of us from small island developing states
climate change threatens our very survival, as sea levels rise, storm surges become
ever more devastating, hurricanes become increasingly severe, the ocean acidifies,
and rising temperatures lead to aridity and dwindling freshwater resources.
This is why representatives from Small Island Developing States (SIDS) fought
so hard for the 1.5 °C global temperature limit in the Paris Agreement. For us, it is a
matter of survival. While I remain optimistic that concerted global action will
achieve the ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit tem-
perature rise to 1.5 °C, in the interim, the particularly vulnerable, including our
small island populations, will experience impacts from climate change to which it
will be impossible to adapt. The recognition that climate change will cause loss and
damage that is “beyond adaptation” has been acknowledged by the IPCC as “limits
to adaptation” and has further led to the establishment of a dedicated mechanism
under the UNFCCC—the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM)—to address
loss and damage associated with climate change impacts. It has further resulted in
the treatment of loss and damage in a stand-alone article in the Paris Agreement
(Article 8). But recognition must be followed by action. SIDS and other vulnerable
countries must be supported, as they bear the brunt of coping with unavoidable loss
and damage associated with changes to the climate that are attributable to others.
This is no easy task and the world needs to maintain the Paris momentum of 2015
for this global fight.

v
vi Foreword I: Perspective from Saint Lucia

The scientific community is called upon to support policy-makers to ensure that

we handle the challenge in the most effective and well-informed manner. This book
provides a valuable contribution to this effort. For the first time, the current sci-
entific research and resulting knowledge on loss and damage has been collected in
one comprehensive volume, allowing us to take stock of what we know and don’t
know, especially in areas of critical importance to SIDS, including implementing
comprehensive climate risk management approaches; addressing slow onset events;
financing efforts to address loss and damage; and understanding what institutional
and legal arrangements are required to ensure the most effective responses. Of
particular importance to the sustainable future of small islands are the impacts from
slow onset events—including sea level rise, permanent rises in temperature and
ocean acidification. Understanding the nature of these events and their impacts will
require dedicated attention, because they are already beginning to affect countries
and are certain to continue. Slow impact events severely limit the applicability of
traditional risk management approaches and require novel solutions. It is my hope
that this book will lay a foundation for further research in this area and foster
enhanced understanding and closer cooperation between the scientific community
and policy-makers on this and other critical matters. This is essential as we move
forward in our work with the aim of addressing loss and damage. There is much to
be gained in terms of facilitating effective decision-making that is grounded in
science and far too much to be lost if we continue to tarry or get it wrong on this
exigent issue of loss and damage.

Dawn Pierre-Nathoniel
Deputy Chief, Sustainable
Development and Environment Officer
Department of Sustainable Development
Saint Lucia
Foreword II: Perspective of Germany

Climate change can manifest itself in many ways, often with the most dramatic
consequences for the poor and vulnerable. While our generation still has the means
to avert catastrophic outcomes by drastically cutting carbon emissions, some con-
sequences are already felt today, with a profound effect to already pressing social,
environmental and economic issues. “Every year a thousand people die here from
cholera that is spread by flooding, and during the rainy season, many people are
forced from their homes”, Daviz Simango, Mayor of Beira, Mozambique, explains.
The global community increasingly acknowledges climate risks and puts ever more
effort into finding innovative ways to cope with them on the ground. Equally,
development efforts need to build resilience against climate-related shocks and
stressors. The Paris Agreement provides a solid basis and reminds rich countries
of their responsibility. This is why Germany via the German Federal Ministry for
Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) promotes comprehensive climate
risk management, including mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, risk
reduction measures as well as risk finance instruments.
For example, the BMZ supported the expansion of a renewables firm to East
Africa, starting to install solar-based off-grid systems in Uganda. In the meantime,
the company also offers trainings for young people to become electrical engineers.
In addition, we invest in storage facilities to help coffee planters in Rwanda who are
struggling with harvests due to increasing weather extremes. Along with the quality
of harvests, the efforts safeguard their livelihoods and progress to sustainable
development. We offer vocational training to households in Bangladesh whose
entire arable land was destroyed due to riverbank erosion, forcing them to seek
shelter in the bigger city nearby. Along with enhancing water, sanitation and energy
infrastructure in cooperation with local residents, the programme helps migrants,
small businesses and the urban commerce alike. Finally, we fund the InsuResilience
Investment Fund (IIF), which invests in partner countries’ insurance providers, such
as the microfinance institution Caja Sullana in Peru. Supported by the IIF, Caja
Sullana offers insurance against flood and drought to small farmers and businesses,
triggering payouts of over USD 630,000 to almost 500 farmers and businesses to
rebuild their destroyed assets.

vii
viii Foreword II: Perspective of Germany

These are examples for the many ways to counter the damage inflicted by
climate change. However, not all adverse effects of climate change can be dealt with
by reducing vulnerability, increasing resilience or providing pre-agreed finance.
Other impacts of climate change, such as sea level rise, can also lead to
non-economic losses when e.g. cultural sites get inundated. In situations where
community members face slow-onset events, they often have to consider making
decisive changes regarding e.g. their residency and livelihoods. We want to
improve the understanding around the role of climate risks on human mobility
patterns: how can partner countries be best assisted in facilitating seasonal or
temporary migration and, as a last resort, planned relocation processes; how to
ensure implementation in a participative manner and in close coordination with the
hosting communities? Because of the multi-faceted impacts of climate change on
humankind, we acknowledge the importance of dealing with climate change and its
impact on human lives and livelihoods and support our partner countries bilaterally
and through our collaboration with international organizations. We have a
long-standing engagement with the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) since
its inception at the COP 19 in Warsaw and support its catalytic role to reach a
common understanding of the most pressing issues and existing and emerging
approaches to deal with them. The WIM is a good example of how solutions can be
achieved together, through the cooperation of states, academia, civil society and the
private sector.
We have already translated our willingness to act into many projects and pro-
grammes and continue to do so, also by supporting partner countries in tackling
climate risks with tailor-made solutions (see box on a Climate Risk Management
Framework in the chapter by Schinko et al. 2018, page 98). But it is of paramount
importance to continuously study climate change, its known impacts and potential
threats and interlinkages to improve the answers to these challenges. Current and
future research can help us to understand the planetary boundaries and relevant
tipping points. Such insights can facilitate an informed public debate driven by
academia, civil society, private sector as well as governments. The BMZ is and will
remain a strong partner in supporting all those actors on different levels. Only by
fostering partnerships will we be able to address the challenges that lie ahead. This
book is a valuable contribution to the dialogue and fosters a common understanding
of key issues regarding Loss and Damage, thus further strengthening much-needed
exchange.

Ingrid-Gabriela Hoven
Director-General Global Issues
Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation
and Development (BMZ)
Germany
Preface

Climate change is rapidly proceeding, and climate-related risks are being exacer-
bated. The year 2018 brought about new temperature records in regions of Africa
and Asia (with temperatures exceeding unprecedented 50 °C), the hottest European
summer in recent history with heatwaves from Algeria to the Arctic, also bringing
along forest fires and drought, severe flooding in southern India and Bangladesh, as
well as massive cyclone damage in Fiji. While, largely involuntarily, people and
their assets are increasingly located in harm’s way, the IPCC has shown that the
frequency and severity of climate-related hazards is being adversely shaped by
anthropogenic climate change. Evidence is increasing that those risks have the
potential to significantly affect lives and livelihoods across the globe, as well as
push vulnerable people, communities and countries to their physical and
socio-economic adaptation limits.
The Loss and Damage (L&D) discourse, initiated almost three decades ago by
Small Island States worried about sea level rise, has given voice to concerns for
climate change-related impacts that may be irreversible and beyond physical and
social adaptation limits. The discourse has become institutionalised in international
climate policy through the Warsaw Mechanism on Loss and Damages adopted in
2013 and was given firm consideration in the Paris Agreement in 2015. While
expectations by policy advisors and civil society for the L&D discourse are looming
large, the science has been trailing behind. This is impeding a step-change from
debate to concrete policy deliberation and on-the-ground implementation.
This book provides science-based insight and inroads into the L&D discourse.
The volume, made up of 22 chapters by experts and two forewords by L&D
policymakers and negotiators, articulates the multiple concepts, principles and
methods as well as place-based insight relevant for L&D. It additionally identifies a
number of propositions that may serve as a foundation for improved policy for-
mulation. The volume is the first comprehensive outcome of the “Loss and Damage
Network”, a partnership effort by scientists and practitioners bringing together
members from more than twenty-five institutions around the globe.

ix
x Preface

In addition to providing information on critical climate risks and requisite

responses to the public throughout, we are hopeful that the book may inform the
L&D discourse at a critical time with the review of the Warsaw Mechanism
underway and evidence of limits ‘beyond adaptation’ increasing. The network
stands ready to further conduct relevant research, provide capacity building as well
as support policy deliberation.
We dearly thank all authors for their valuable contributions. In particular, we
thank Florentina Simlinger for editorial support and interaction with the L&D
Network colleagues. Special thanks go to Fritz Schmuhl of Springer International
for all the support and advice during this project.

Laxenburg, Austria Reinhard Mechler

Hamburg, Germany Laurens M. Bouwer
London, UK Thomas Schinko
August 2018 Swenja Surminski
JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
Contents

Part I Setting the Stage: Key Concepts, Challenges and Insights

1 Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions . . . . . . . . 3
Reinhard Mechler, Elisa Calliari, Laurens M. Bouwer,
Thomas Schinko, Swenja Surminski, JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer,
Jeroen Aerts, Wouter Botzen, Emily Boyd, Natalie Delia Deckard,
Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Mikel González-Eguino, Marjolijn Haasnoot,
John Handmer, Masroora Haque, Alison Heslin,
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Christian Huggel, Saleemul Huq,
Rachel James, Richard G. Jones, Sirkku Juhola, Adriana Keating,
Stefan Kienberger, Sönke Kreft, Onno Kuik, Mia Landauer,
Finn Laurien, Judy Lawrence, Ana Lopez, Wei Liu,
Piotr Magnuszewski, Anil Markandya, Benoit Mayer, Ian McCallum,
Colin McQuistan, Lukas Meyer, Kian Mintz-Woo,
Arianna Montero-Colbert, Jaroslav Mysiak, Johanna Nalau, Ilan Noy,
Robert Oakes, Friederike E. L. Otto, Mousumi Pervin, Erin Roberts,
Laura Schäfer, Paolo Scussolini, Olivia Serdeczny, Alex de
Sherbinin, Florentina Simlinger, Asha Sitati, Saibeen Sultana,
Hannah R. Young, Kees van der Geest, Marc van den Homberg,
Ivo Wallimann-Helmer, Koko Warner and Zinta Zommers
2 The Ethical Challenges in the Context of Climate Loss
and Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Ivo Wallimann-Helmer, Lukas Meyer, Kian Mintz-Woo,
Thomas Schinko and Olivia Serdeczny
3 Observed and Projected Impacts from Extreme Weather
Events: Implications for Loss and Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Laurens M. Bouwer

xi
xii Contents

4 The Risk and Policy Space for Loss and Damage: Integrating
Notions of Distributive and Compensatory Justice with
Comprehensive Climate Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Thomas Schinko, Reinhard Mechler and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler

Part II Critical Issues Shaping the Discourse

5 Attribution: How Is It Relevant for Loss and Damage Policy
and Practice? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Rachel A. James, Richard G. Jones, Emily Boyd, Hannah R. Young,
Friederike E. L. Otto, Christian Huggel and Jan S. Fuglestvedt
6 The Politics of (and Behind) the UNFCCC’s Loss
and Damage Mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
Elisa Calliari, Swenja Surminski and Jaroslav Mysiak
7 Legal Responses to Climate Change Induced Loss
and Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Florentina Simlinger and Benoit Mayer
8 Non-economic Loss and Damage and the Warsaw
International Mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
Olivia Serdeczny
9 The Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services
and Resulting Losses and Damages to People and Society . . . . . . . 221
Kees van der Geest, Alex de Sherbinin, Stefan Kienberger,
Zinta Zommers, Asha Sitati, Erin Roberts and Rachel James
10 Displacement and Resettlement: Understanding the Role
of Climate Change in Contemporary Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
Alison Heslin, Natalie Delia Deckard, Robert Oakes
and Arianna Montero-Colbert

Part III Research and Practice: Reviewing Methods and Tools

11 The Role of the Physical Sciences in Loss and Damage
Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
Ana Lopez, Swenja Surminski and Olivia Serdeczny
12 Integrated Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . 287
W. J. Wouter Botzen, Laurens M. Bouwer, Paolo Scussolini,
Onno Kuik, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Judy Lawrence and
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
13 Exploring and Managing Adaptation Frontiers with Climate
Risk Insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
Laura Schäfer, Koko Warner and Sönke Kreft
Contents xiii

14 Integrated Assessment for Identifying Climate Finance Needs

for Loss and Damage: A Critical Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
Anil Markandya and Mikel González-Eguino

Part IV Geographic Perspectives and Cases

15 Understanding Loss and Damage in Pacific Small Island
Developing States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
John Handmer and Johanna Nalau
16 Climate Migration and Cultural Preservation: The Case
of the Marshallese Diaspora . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383
Alison Heslin
17 Supporting Climate Risk Management at Scale. Insights
from the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance Partnership Model
Applied in Peru & Nepal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
Reinhard Mechler, Colin McQuistan, Ian McCallum, Wei Liu,
Adriana Keating, Piotr Magnuszewski, Thomas Schinko,
Finn Laurien and Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
18 Loss and Damage in the Rapidly Changing Arctic . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425
Mia Landauer and Sirkku Juhola

Part V Policy Options and Other Response Mechanisms for the

L&D Discourse
19 Towards Establishing a National Mechanism to Address
Losses and Damages: A Case Study from Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . 451
Masroora Haque, Mousumi Pervin, Saibeen Sultana
and Saleemul Huq
20 The Case of Huaraz: First Climate Lawsuit on Loss
and Damage Against an Energy Company Before
German Courts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475
Will Frank, Christoph Bals and Julia Grimm
21 Insurance as a Response to Loss and Damage? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483
JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer, Swenja Surminski, Laurens M. Bouwer,
Ilan Noy and Reinhard Mechler
22 Technology for Climate Justice: A Reporting Framework
for Loss and Damage as Part of Key Global Agreements . . . . . . . . 513
Marc van den Homberg and Colin McQuistan
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 547
List of Figures

Fig. 1.1 Evolution of the Loss and Damage discourse under the
UNFCCC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Fig. 1.2 Co-evolution of climate change research reported by the
IPCC and the UNFCCC process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Fig. 1.3 Risk as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability . . . . . 12
Fig. 1.4 The risk concept as applied to sudden-onset and slow-onset
processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Fig. 3.1 Risk framework for the analysis of extreme event impacts . . . 65
Fig. 3.2 Past, current and future risk from extreme weather events,
and the relation to Loss and Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Fig. 4.1 Characterisation of climate-related risks relevant for
Loss&Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Fig. 4.2 Selected key risks and potential for adaptation for small
islands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Fig. 4.3 Degree of confidence in the detection of observed impacts of
climate change versus degree of confidence in attribution to
climate change drivers for tropical small islands . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Fig. 4.4 Framing risk acceptance and (in)tolerance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Fig. 4.5 Elements of the dynamic principled approach to Loss and
Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Fig. 4.6 Identifying the risk and policy options space for Loss and
Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Fig. 4.7 Climate risk management (CRM) six step approach . . . . . . . . 98
Fig. 4.8 Defining acceptable and unacceptable risks for accident risks
in Switzerland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Fig. 4.9 Conceptualising risk layering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Fig. 4.10 Understanding risk and risk layering for the case of flood risk
in Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Fig. 4.11 Global map identifying high-level risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104

xv
xvi List of Figures

Fig. 5.1 A schematic diagram illustrating a spectrum of views on

L&D identified by Boyd et al. (2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
Fig. 5.2 A conceptual causal network illustrating multiple potential
“causal chains” between anthropogenic changes in GHGs and
aerosols, climate and weather, and L&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Fig. 5.3 Example of a simplified detection and attribution study for
global temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Fig. 5.4 A schematic illustration of the probability distribution of a
climate variable (such as temperature or precipitation) with
and without human influence on climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
Fig. 5.5 Schematic illustration of the assessment by the National
Academy of Sciences of the state of attribution science for
different types of extreme weather events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Fig. 5.6 Schematic diagram from the IPCC WGII Chap. 18 on
detection and attribution of observed impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Fig. 5.7 An analysis by Hansen and Stone, revisiting impacts in the
IPCC WGII report to assess whether they can be linked to
anthropogenic forcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Fig. 5.8 Sensitivity of estimated contributions to global mean surface
temperature increase to the choice of forcing components
included in attribution analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Fig. 5.9 Map demonstrating the location of weather stations in the
Global Historical Climatology Network, as well as the
number of detected impacts reported in the IPCC AR5 for
Annex I countries, Non-Annex I countries, and regions not
party to the UNFCCC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Fig. 6.1 Timeline of L&D milestones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Fig. 6.2 The WIM in the UNFCCC architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
Fig. 6.3 Evolution of Party groupings/coalitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
Fig. 8.1 Cases and categories of NELD as reported in the literature
published by 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
Fig. 9.1 Conceptual framework for understanding the role of
ecosystem services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225
Fig. 9.2 Temperature change in degrees Celsius per decade from 1951
to 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
Fig. 9.3 Coefficient of variation of rainfall from 1951 to 2013 . . . . . . . 228
Fig. 9.4 Difference in the number of years that received adequate
rainfall for sorghum and millet (1990–2009 compared to
1950–1969) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 228
Fig. 9.5 The drying of Lake Chad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
Fig. 9.6 Flooding in the peanut basin south of Kaolack, Senegal
(September 2007) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
List of Figures xvii

Fig. 10.1 IOM migration-related terminology by motivation and

destination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Fig. 10.2 UN migration-related terminology by motivation and
destination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Fig. 10.3 Migration totals, measured as total foreign-born
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
Fig. 10.4 New internal displacements per year from conflict
and natural disasters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
Fig. 10.5 Total number of new internally displaced by natural
disasters 2008–2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
Fig. 10.6 The main reasons for moving in Kiribati 2005–2015 . . . . . . . . 247
Fig. 11.1 The uncertainty cascade in the modelling chain from
climate model forcings to the estimation of the climate hazard
(the physical impact of climate change) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
Fig. 12.1 Layered disaster risk management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
Fig. 12.2 Flood risk in Jakarta measured as annual expected
damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Fig. 12.3 Conceptual framework of the flood risk assessment of Ho Chi
Minh City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
Fig. 12.4 Increase in flood risk (expected annual damage—EAD—and
annual potential casualties) of floods in Ho Chi Minh City,
from the present to year 2050 and 2100, for three
combinations of climate and socio-economic scenarios . . . . . . 295
Fig. 12.5 Performance of several adaptation measures and strategies in
reducing the future impacts of sea level rise, compared to the
situation without adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
Fig. 12.6 Net Present Value and normalised Benefit/cost ratio of flood
risk adaptation measures for Ho Chi Minh City for three
combinations of climate change and socio-economic
scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
Fig. 12.7 Steps taken in Dynamic Adaptive Pathways
Planning (DAPP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 307
Fig. 12.8 Example of an adaptation pathways map and a scorecard
presenting the costs and benefits of the nine alternative
pathways presented in the map . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
Fig. 13.1 Acceptable, tolerable and intolerable risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
Fig. 13.2 The role of insurance in managing adaptation frontiers . . . . . . 323
Fig. 13.3 Risk layering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
Fig. 14.1 Total damages, residual damages and adaptation
expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346
Fig. 14.2 Temperature pathways for low and high damage scenarios . . . 348
Fig. 14.3 Residual damages estimates for the case of a) low
damages-high discount rate; b) high damages-low discount
rate (in billion 2005 US) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349
xviii List of Figures

Fig. 14.4 Residual costs as percentage of adaptation costs for the case
of a) low damages-high discount rate; b) high damages-low
discount rate (in billion 2005 US) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355
Fig. 14.5 Damage (% GDP) for different damage functions and ECS
parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358
Fig. 15.1 Map of the South Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
Fig. 15.2 Visualisation of risk and options spaces for the
SW Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370
Fig. 15.3 Damage from tropical cyclone Pam in 2015 in north Efate
island, Vanuatu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374
Fig. 16.1 The Republic of the Marshall Islands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385
Fig. 16.2 Outrigger Canoe traditionally used in ocean navigation,
Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands . . . . . . . . . . . . 387
Fig. 16.3 Typical landscape, Arno Atoll, Republic of the Marshall
Islands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388
Fig. 17.1 The practice imperative—connecting disaster preparedness
and livelihood development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396
Fig. 17.2 Partners and roles in the Flood Resilience Alliance . . . . . . . . . 399
Fig. 17.3 Flood risk context in the Karnali river basin in Nepal (left
panel) and the Rimac river valley in Peru (right panel) . . . . . . 401
Fig. 17.4 Adaptive management cycle used in the ZFRA to foster
Shared Resilience Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
Fig. 17.5 Methodological approach for understanding and learning
about risk and resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405
Fig. 17.6 Screenshot of Risk Geo-Wiki. Modelled global flood risk
data overlaid on satellite imagery at the regional level
for the Karnali, Nepal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 407
Fig. 17.7 Community and NGO members mapping into
OpenStreetMap with mobile devices in the Karnali basin,
Nepal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408
Fig. 17.8 Conventional hand-drawn community risk map, capacity
map, and social map versus digital community map produced
via a participatory and collaborative mapping approach . . . . . . 409
Fig. 17.9 Zurich Flood Resilience Measurement Framework
implementation process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411
Fig. 17.10 Measuring resilience in Nepal as compared to the global
measurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412
Fig. 17.11 Application of the Flood Resilience Game provoking
discussion at an NGO workshop in Jakarta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415
Fig. 17.12 Flood Resilience Systems Framework (FLORES)—a
simplified view . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416
Fig. 17.13 Prospective forensics for projecting flood risk in Peru . . . . . . . 419
List of Figures xix

Fig. 17.14 Tracing methods and tools developed in the Zurich Flood
Resilience Alliance in time and space connecting risk and
resilience research with practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420
Fig. 18.1 VOSviewer visualisation of Arctic literature sample . . . . . . . . 432
Fig. 18.2 Institutional and jurisdictional framework, as well as
socio-economic, cultural and political settings affect
adaptation threshold of Arctic communities, and can be
drivers of Loss and Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437
Fig. 18.3 Risk and Indigenous Peoples in Alaska . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440
Fig. 19.1 Multi-hazard map of Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454
Fig. 19.2 Areas at risk of flooding in Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455
Fig. 19.3 River embankment in Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456
Fig. 19.4 Institutions, policy frameworks and organisations comprising
the disaster management system in Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . . . 458
Fig. 19.5 Disaster Management Regulatory Framework
of Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461
Fig. 19.6 Allocation of funding for projects by the Bangladesh
Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 465
Fig. 19.7 Proposed functions of the national mechanism to address
climate induced loss and damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 470
Fig. 20.1 Location of Lake Palcacocha and the city of Huaraz . . . . . . . . 477
Fig. 20.2 Palcacocha Glacier Lake with the provisional pumping
system in need of upgrading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 478
Fig. 20.3 Detection and attribution for climate impacts in Central
and South America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 478
Fig. 21.1 Overview of ‘risk management applications’ of insurance,
in the context of loss and damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 487
Fig. 21.2 Costs contributing to catastrophe insurance premium . . . . . . . . 492
Fig. 21.3 The R4 Rural Resilience Initiative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496
Fig. 22.1 Community information board in the Banke and Bardia
district in Nepal explaining appropriate flood mitigation
measures and the community-based early warning system . . . . 515
Fig. 22.2 Overview of underlying climate justice principles
and means of implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 517
Fig. 22.3 Overview of the relationship of the risk of losses
and damages to the three pillars of climate action
and key global agreements (Sendai and SDG) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526
Fig. 22.4 Reporting framework for technology to address Loss
and Damage and contribute to climate justice . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534
List of Tables

Table 1.1 Classifying losses and damages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Table 2.1 Difference in policy priority depending on how adaptation
and L&D are distinguished . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Table 2.2 Overview of differences between analysing L&D within a
framing of compensatory justice and distributive justice . . . . . 45
Table 2.3 Indicative list of measures for different categories of losses
and damages. Note that listed measures are not exhaustive
and that these measures could apply under both
compensatory or distributive justice framings . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Table 2.4 Categorisation of the differentiated remedial responsibilities
of countries to foster L&D measures without exclusively
relying on outcome responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Table 3.1 Observed changes in weather extremes and attribution to
human greenhouse gas emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Table 3.2 Normalisation studies of weather-related disaster
loss records . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
Table 3.3 Comparison of changes in extreme weather hazards
(regardless of human contribution) and observed change
in losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Table 4.1 Classifying loss and damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Table 6.1 Party/Grouping calling for compensation in the period
1991–2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
Table 7.1 Legal responses, their challenges and potential next steps . . . . 198
Table 8.1 NELD impacts reported in the literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209
Table 14.1 Residual damages across three IAMs: high damages-low
discount rate (USD billion 2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350
Table 14.2 Residual damages across three IAMs: low damages-high
discount rate (USD billion 2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 351
Table 14.3 Adaptation and residual costs for selected regions (high
damages-low discount rate) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353

xxi
xxii List of Tables

Table 14.4 Adaptation and residual costs for selected regions (low
damages-high discount rate) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354
Table 15.1 Loss & Damage concepts applied to the SW Pacific . . . . . . . . 369
Table 17.1 Characteristics and applicability of different decision-support
tools for ex-ante and ex-post disaster risk management . . . . . . 413
Table 18.1 Categories of Arctic studies focusing on risks and impacts
of climate change (N=164) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430
Table 18.2 Examples limiting Arctic communities to adapt to climate
change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 438
Table 19.1 Annual allocations to the trust fund are
as follows (BCCT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464
Table 21.1 Examples of risk financing arrangements at micro,
intermediary and macro scales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 488
Table 21.2 Financing instruments for protecting government budgets . . . . 489
Table 21.3 An overview of preventative and curative functions
of climate risk insurance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 505
Table 22.1 Practical Action’s framework for technology justice
with five components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518
Table 22.2 Overview of public and private flood risk actions
and their intended effect on losses and damages . . . . . . . . . . . 524
Table 22.3 Transparency in the three key global agreements:
reporting mechanisms, indicators related to impacts
and risks, and means of implementation for technology,
with some detail on Bangladesh, India and Nepal . . . . . . . . . . 531
Table 22.4 Injustices identified in current flood early warning
systems in South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 536
 Part I
Setting the Stage: Key Concepts,
Challenges and Insights
Chapter 1
Science for Loss and Damage. Findings
and Propositions

Reinhard Mechler, Elisa Calliari, Laurens M. Bouwer, Thomas Schinko,

Swenja Surminski, JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer, Jeroen Aerts, Wouter Botzen,
Emily Boyd, Natalie Delia Deckard, Jan S. Fuglestvedt,
Mikel González-Eguino, Marjolijn Haasnoot, John Handmer,
Masroora Haque, Alison Heslin, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Christian Huggel,
Saleemul Huq, Rachel James, Richard G. Jones, Sirkku Juhola,
Adriana Keating, Stefan Kienberger, Sönke Kreft, Onno Kuik,
Mia Landauer, Finn Laurien, Judy Lawrence, Ana Lopez, Wei Liu,
Piotr Magnuszewski, Anil Markandya, Benoit Mayer, Ian McCallum,
Colin McQuistan, Lukas Meyer, Kian Mintz-Woo, Arianna Montero-Colbert,
Jaroslav Mysiak, Johanna Nalau, Ilan Noy, Robert Oakes,
Friederike E. L. Otto, Mousumi Pervin, Erin Roberts, Laura Schäfer,
Paolo Scussolini, Olivia Serdeczny, Alex de Sherbinin, Florentina Simlinger,
Asha Sitati, Saibeen Sultana, Hannah R. Young, Kees van der Geest,
Marc van den Homberg, Ivo Wallimann-Helmer, Koko Warner
and Zinta Zommers

Abstract The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the
last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate
change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as
well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the

E. Calliari · L. M. Bouwer · T. Schinko · S. Surminski · J. Linnerooth-Bayer · J. Aerts ·

W. Botzen · E. Boyd · N. D. Deckard · J. S. Fuglestvedt · M. González-Eguino · M. Haasnoot ·
J. Handmer · M. Haque · A. Heslin · S. Hochrainer-Stigler · C. Huggel · S. Huq · R. James ·
R. G. Jones · S. Juhola · A. Keating · S. Kienberger · S. Kreft · O. Kuik · M. Landauer ·
F. Laurien · J. Lawrence · A. Lopez · W. Liu · P. Magnuszewski · A. Markandya · B. Mayer ·
I. McCallum · C. McQuistan · L. Meyer · K. Mintz-Woo · A. Montero-Colbert · J. Mysiak ·
J. Nalau · I. Noy · R. Oakes · F. E. L. Otto · M. Pervin · E. Roberts · L. Schäfer · P. Scussolini ·
O. Serdeczny · A. de Sherbinin · F. Simlinger · A. Sitati · S. Sultana · H. R. Young · K. van
der Geest · M. van den Homberg · I. Wallimann-Helmer · K. Warner · Z. Zommers
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
R. Mechler (B)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
e-mail: mechler@iiasa.ac.at
R. Mechler
Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria

© The Author(s) 2019 3

R. Mechler et al. (eds.), Loss and Damage from Climate Change, Climate Risk
Management, Policy and Governance, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_1
4 R. Mechler et al.

“Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage” was established in 2013
and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015. Despite advances, the
debate currently is broad, diffuse and somewhat confusing, while concepts, meth-
ods and tools, as well as directions for policy remain vague and often contested.
This book, a joint effort of the Loss and Damage Network—a partnership effort by
scientists and practitioners from around the globe—provides evidence-based insight
into the L&D discourse by highlighting state-of-the-art research conducted across
multiple disciplines, by showcasing applications in practice and by providing insight
into policy contexts and salient policy options. This introductory chapter summarises
key findings of the twenty-two book chapters in terms of five propositions. These
propositions, each building on relevant findings linked to forward-looking sugges-
tions for research, policy and practice, reflect the architecture of the book, whose
sections proceed from setting the stage to critical issues, followed by a section on
methods and tools, to chapters that provide geographic perspectives, and finally to a
section that identifies potential policy options. The propositions comprise (1) Risk
management can be an effective entry point for aligning perspectives and debates,
if framed comprehensively, coupled with climate justice considerations and linked
to established risk management and adaptation practice; (2) Attribution science is
advancing rapidly and fundamental to informing actions to minimise, avert, and
address losses and damages; (3) Climate change research, in addition to identifying
physical/hard limits to adaptation, needs to more systematically examine soft limits
to adaptation, for which we find some evidence across several geographies globally;
(4) Climate risk insurance mechanisms can serve the prevention and cure aspects
emphasised in the L&D debate but solidarity and accountability aspects need further
attention, for which we find tentative indication in applications around the world; (5)
Policy deliberations may need to overcome the perception that L&D constitutes a
win-lose negotiation “game” by developing a more inclusive narrative that highlights
collective ambition for tackling risks, mutual benefits and the role of transformation.

Keywords Science · Policy · Practice · Climate justice · Limits to adaptation

Climate risk management · Transformation

1.1 Understanding and Reviewing the Evidence

for Advancing Science and Policy

The debate on Loss and Damage (L&D)1 has gained traction over the last few years.
Although the discourse started already during the establishment of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in the early 1990s with
a proposal by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) on compensation and

1 In this chapter and in the book throughout, we will use the plural form and lowercase letters (‘losses

and damages’) to refer broadly to (observed) impacts and (projected) risks, and the capitalized
singular form (‘Loss & Damage’) where reference is made to the policy debate.
1 Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions 5

insurance for losses due to sea-level rise (INC 1991), it took about 20 years, alongside
increasing evidence and public awareness of climate change impacts and risks as
collated prominently in reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), for it to be recognised at the institutional level. In 2007 UNFCCC’s 13th
Conference of the Parties (COP 13) in Bali first broadly considered means to address
Loss and Damage, yet only in 2012 at COP 18 in Doha did Parties for the first time
decide to consider institutional arrangements to address L&D, which in 2013 led
negotiators at COP 19 to establish the “Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss
and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts” (WIM) (UNFCCC 2013). In
2015 at COP 21, the Paris Agreement established a separate article on L&D endorsing
the Mechanism (UN 2015) (see Fig. 1.1). Since its establishment, the WIM, whose
Executive Committee has devised work programmes to inform the deliberations, has
been subject to intense debate. While some consider it a distinct building block of
negotiations under the UNFCCC alongside mitigation and adaptation, others suggest
that it is supposed to be an integral part of the negotiations under climate change
adaptation. The implications and final directions for this Mechanism, which will
undergo review in 2019, are, however, largely unclear.
The debate currently is broad, diffuse and somewhat confusing, while concepts,
methods and tools, as well as directions for policy remain vague and contested. Over
the last few years, research has been requested to provide actionable input and has
increasingly become active. Scholarship has started to provide evidence on losses
and damages in vulnerable countries (Warner and van der Geest 2013), coined and
critically examined definitions, the rationale and plural perspectives on the discourse
(Verheyen and Roderick 2008; James et al. 2015; Van der Geest and Warner 2015;
Vanhala and Hestbaek 2016; Boyd et al. 2017), employed applicable methods and
models (Gall 2015; Birkmann and Welle 2015; Schinko and Mechler 2017), reviewed
roles for justice and equity considerations (Huggel et al. 2016a; Roser et al. 2015;
Wallimann-Helmer 2015), spent due attention on non-economic losses (Serdeczny
et al. 2017; Tschakert et al. 2017; Wewerinke-Singh 2018a), supported crafting of
policy and governance options (Pinninti 2013; Page and Heyward 2017; Mechler and
Schinko 2016; Crosland et al. 2016; Biermann and Boas 2017) and examined the role
of legal responses to L&D (Mace and Verheyen 2016; Mayer 2016; Wewerinke-Singh
2018b).
Many gaps remain, not the least in terms of communication across the science-
policy interface. Analysts and observers, including the authors of this book, have
argued that these gaps have hampered understanding and progress towards effective
policy formulation, as well as practical implementation. As we demonstrate in this
book, a more strongly evidence-based dialogue is desirable and feasible, and we
see a number of promising options for instilling more coherence into the debate and
foster alignment with other policy agendas, particularly with regard to climate change
adaptation (CCA), current international efforts on disaster risk reduction (DRR), as
well as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
This book thus aims at providing insights into the L&D discourse by highlighting
state-of-the-art research from multiple disciplines as well as policy contexts related to
L&D. It articulates the multiple concepts, principles and methods relevant for L&D,
 6

Fig. 1.1 Evolution of the Loss and Damage discourse under the UNFCCC. Source UNFCCC (2018)
R. Mechler et al.
1 Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions 7

including those that have only recently become available. As such, this volume is
the first comprehensive outcome of the Loss and Damage Network, a partnership
effort by scientists and practitioners, which includes members from more than 40
institutions around the globe. Aimed at informing research, policy, practice and the
interested public, this book:
• discusses the political, legal, economic and institutional dimensions of L&D,
• introduces normative and ethical questions central to the discourse,
• highlights the role of climate risks and climate risk management,
• presents salient case studies from around the world,
• identifies practical and evidence-based policy and implementation options, and
thus
• supports the science-policy dialogue and possible future directions of the L&D
discourse, both under and outside the Paris Agreement.
The volume overall is organised into five sections: Sect. 1 sets the stage with
key concepts and insights regarding trends in impacts and risks, while Sect. 2
presents critical issues that increasingly are shaping the policy discourse. In
Sect. 3, methods and tools for research and practice are reviewed in terms of
their applicability, Sect. 4 presents place-based evidence and insights on losses
and damages as well as any soft and hard limits across geographies, and finally in
Sect. 5, policy options and other actions for the L&D discourse are discussed. This
introductory chapter further elaborates on the evolution of the discourse, presents key
concepts of relevance and salience that arise from the book, shortly summarises the
individual chapters, and concludes by outlining a number of propositions that link
relevant findings to forward-looking suggestions for research, practice and policy.

1.2 Evolution of the Policy Discourse

Formal and informal deliberations regarding “dangerous” climate-related risks and

sharing the burdens (including justice considerations) associated with responses to
climate change have been fundamental for shaping the climate debate since the
beginning (see also chapter by Calliari et al. 2018; see Fig. 1.1). Science, in particu-
lar as reported by the IPCC assessments, has had a major impact on policy formulation
and decisions as part of the UNFCCC (see Fig. 1.2). Given the ultimate objective
as stipulated by the UNFCCC in 1992 “to prevent dangerous anthropogenic inter-
ference with the climate system” (UN 1992, Art. 2), the focus of the UNFCCC was
originally–and continues to predominantly be–on climate mitigation responses. The
first discussions about L&D were initiated by the Alliance of Small Island States
(AOSIS) in the early 1990s with due linkages to mitigation. During the negotiations
that led to adoption of the UNFCCC in 1992, AOSIS proposed the establishment
of, what they called, an international insurance scheme–also referred to by some
as a compensation fund–to be supported by mandatory contributions from industri-
alised parties on the basis of their gross national product and relative greenhouse gas
emissions (INC 1991).
 8

Fig. 1.2 Co-evolution of climate change research reported by the IPCC and the UNFCCC process. Source IPCC 2018
R. Mechler et al.
1 Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions 9

The scheme was intended to compensate small island- and low-lying developing
nations for climate-related impacts from sea-level rise (Linnerooth-Bayer et al. 2003;
AOSIS 2008; see the chapters by Schäfer et al. 2018 and Linnerooth-Bayer et al.
2018). While the proposal was eventually dropped, discussions on compensation
and insurance as a means to address the adverse effects of climate change prevailed
with expert workshops convened in 2003 and 2007 on the basis of COP decisions
5/CP 7 and 1/CP 10 and COP13 started to consider means to address Loss and
Damage (Mace and Verheyen 2016).
In 2008, AOSIS submitted an expanded version of the 1991 proposal to the Ad
Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-
LCA). This Multi Window Mechanism to Address Loss and Damage from Climate
Change Impacts in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and other developing
countries particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change comprised three
interdependent components: (1) insurance; (2) rehabilitation/compensation; and (3)
risk management (AOSIS 2008). The idea of an “international mechanism addressing
risk management and risk reduction strategies and insurance related risk sharing and
risk transfer mechanisms” was reiterated a year later in the AOSIS proposal for a
Copenhagen Protocol (UNFCCC 2009).
After losses and damages were mentioned in the 2007 Bali Action Plan (UNFCCC
2007), the 2010 Cancun Adaptation Framework (UNFCCC 2010) initiated formal
UNFCCC activities on the issue with the establishment of an ad hoc work programme
(UNFCCC 2011). The latter was meant to advance technical work on L&D in three
thematic areas over the course of 2011 and 2012: (1) assessing the risk of L&D and
the current knowledge on the same; (2) proposing a range of approaches to address
L&D from both extreme and slow onset events, taking into consideration experience
at all levels; and (3) determining the role of the Convention in enhancing the imple-
mentation of approaches to address L&D (UNFCCC 2012). Since its inception, the
work programme has conducted several calls for submissions asking parties (national
government representatives) and observers (other organisations attending UNFCCC
meetings) for input on specific questions. These calls gave parties, observers and
non-admitted organisations the opportunity to lay out their views on thematic issues,
institutional questions, governance arrangements and suggestions on how to take the
L&D work programme forward.
As part of the Doha Climate Gateway in 2012, the Parties decided to establish
institutional arrangements to address L&D at COP 19. This laid the groundwork for
the creation of the WIM, that is charged to “address loss and damage associated
with impacts of climate change, including extreme events and slow onset events, in
developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate
change” (UNFCCC 2013, para 1). COP19 also established an Executive Committee
(ExCom) to guide the implementation of functions of the WIM through an initial
2-year work plan. A distinct L&D article in the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC 2015,
Article 8) at COP 21 meant further recognition for L&D and the WIM, and arguably,
institutional anchoring within the UNFCCC architecture.
The action areas for work under the WIM have been broad and diverse, ranging
in scope and focus. Action areas include considering particularly vulnerable coun-
Another random document with
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to act for him. Throughout, Osterman saw to it that he personally did
not appear.
Of course Greasadick, when he discovered what the plot was,
roared and charged like a bull. Indeed before he was eventually
defeated he became very threatening and dangerous, attempting
once even to kill Drewberry. Yet he was finally vanquished and his
holdings swept away. With no money to make a new start and
seeing others prosper where he had failed for want of a little capital,
he fell into a heavy gloom and finally died there in Larston in the bar
that had been erected after the K. B. & B. spur had been completed.
Through all of this Mr. Osterman appears to have been utterly
indifferent to the fate of the man he was undermining. He cared so
little what became of him afterwards that he actually admitted, or
remarked to Whitley, who remained one of his slaves to the end, that
one could scarcely hope to build a large fortune without indulging in
a few such tricks.
3. Lastly, there was the matter of the C. C. and Q. L. Railroad, the
major portion of the stock of which he and Frank O. Parm, of the
Parm-Baggott chain of stores, had managed to get hold of by the
simple process of buying a few shares and then bringing
stockholders’ suits under one and another name in order to
embarrass President Doremus and his directors, and frighten
investors so they would let go of the stock. And this stock, of course,
was picked up by Osterman and Parm, until at last these two
became the real power behind the road and caused it to be thrown
into the hands of a receiver and then sold to themselves. That was
two years before ever Michael Doremus, the first president of the
road, resigned. When he did he issued a statement saying that he
was being hounded by malign financial influences and that the road
was as sound as ever it had been, which was true. Only it could not
fight all of these suits and the persistent rumors of mismanagement
that were afoot. As a matter of fact, Mr. Doremus died only a year
after resigning, declaring at that time that a just God ruled and that
time would justify himself. But Mr. Osterman and Mr. Parm secured
the road, and finally incorporated it with the P. B. & C. as is well
known.
 III

Some data taken from the biographic study of the late J. H.

Osterman, multimillionaire and oil king, prepared for Lingley’s
Magazine and by it published in its issue for October, 1917.
In order to understand the late J. H. Osterman and his great
success and his peculiar faults one would first have to have known
and appreciated the hard and colorless life that had surrounded him
as a boy. His father, in so far as I have been able to ascertain, was a
crude, hard, narrow man who had been made harder and, if
anything, cruder by the many things which he had been compelled to
endure. He was not a kind or soft-spoken man to his children. He
died when John Osterman, the central figure of this picture, was
eleven. Osterman’s mother, so it is said, was a thin and narrow and
conventional woman, as much harried and put upon by her husband
as ever he was by life. Also there was one sister, unattractive and
rough-featured, an honest and narrow girl who, like her mother,
worked hard up to nineteen, when her mother died. After that, both
parents being dead, she and her brother attempted to manage the
farm, and did so fairly successfully for two years when the sister
decided to marry; and Osterman consenting, she took over the farm.
This falling in with his mood and plans, he ceased farming for good
and betook himself to the Texas oil fields, where he appears to have
mastered some of the details of oil prospecting and refining.
But before that, what miseries had he not endured! He was wont
to recount how, when grasshoppers and drought took all of their
crops for two years after his father’s death, he and his mother and
sister were reduced to want and he had actually been sent to beg a
little cornmeal and salt from the local store on the promise to pay,
possibly a year later. Taxes mounted up. There was no money to buy
seed or to plant or replace stock, which had had to be sold. The
family was without shoes or clothes. Osterman himself appeared to
be of the fixed opinion that the citizens and dealers of Reamer, from
near which point in Kansas he hailed, were a hard and grasping
crew. He was fond of telling how swift they were to point out that
there was no help for either himself or his mother or sister as farmers
and to deny them aid and encouragement on that score. He once
said that all he ever heard in the local branch of his mother’s church,
of which he was never a confessing communicant, was “an eye for
an eye, a tooth for a tooth”; also “with whatsoever measure ye mete
it shall be measured to you again.” Obviously such maxims taken
very much to heart by a boy of his acquisitive and determined nature
might bring about some of the shrewd financial tricks later accredited
to him. Yet he appears to have been a man of some consideration
and sympathy where boys were concerned, for it was said that he
made it a rule in all his adventures to select the poorest if most
determined youths of his organization for promotion and to have
developed all of his chief lieutenants from the ranks of farm or
orphan boy beginners whom he encouraged to work for him. How
true this is the writer is not able to state. However, of the forty or
more eminent men who have been connected with him in his
enterprises, all but four were farm or orphan boys who had entered
his enterprises as clerks or menials at the very bottom, and some
seven of the total were from his native State, Kansas.

IV

The private cogitations of the late John H. Osterman in his

mansion at 1046 Fifth Avenue, New York, and elsewhere during the
last five years of his life.

Oh, but those days when he had been working and scheming to
get up in the world and was thinking that money was the great thing
—the only thing! Those impossible wooden towns in the Northwest
and elsewhere in which he had lived and worked, and those worse
hotels and boarding-houses—always hunting, hunting for money or
the key to it. The greasy, stinking craft in which he had made his way
up weedy and muddy rivers in Honduras and elsewhere—looking for
what? Snakes, mosquitoes, alligators, tarantulas, horned toads and
lizards. In Honduras he had slept under chiqua trees on mats of
chiqua leaves, with only a fire to keep away snakes and other things.
And of a morning he had chased away noisy monkeys and
parroquets from nearby branches with rotten fruit so as to sleep a
little longer. Alone, he had tramped through fever swamps, pursued
by Pequi Indians, who wanted only the contents of his wretched
pack. And he had stared at huge coyal palms, a hundred feet high,
with the great feathery leaves fifteen feet long and their golden
flowers three feet high. Ah, well, that was over now. He had shot the
quetzal with its yellow tail feathers three feet long and had traded
them for food. Once he had all but died of fever in a halfbreed’s hut
back of Cayo. And the halfbreed had then stolen his gun and razor
and other goods and left him to make his way onward as best he
might. That was life for you, just like that. People were like that.
And it was during that time that he had come to realize that by no
honest way at his age was he likely to come to anything financially.
Roaming about the drowsy, sun-baked realm, he had encountered
Messner, an American and a fugitive, he guessed, and it was
Messner who had outlined to him the very scheme by which he had
been able, later, to amass his first quick fortune in New York. It was
Messner who had told him of Torbey and how he had come up to
London from Central Africa to offer shares in a bogus rubber
enterprise based on immense forests which he was supposed to
have found in the wilds of Africa yet which did not exist. And it was
the immense though inaccessible rubber forests in Honduras that
had inspired him to try the same thing in New York. Why not? A new
sucker was born every minute, and he had all to gain and nothing to
lose. Messner said that Torbey had advertised for a widow with some
money to push his enterprise, whereupon he had proceeded to tell
the London speculative public of his treasure and to sell two pound
shares for as low as ten shillings in order to show tremendous rises
in value—to issue two million pounds’ worth of absolutely worthless
stock.
By these methods and by having the stock listed on the London
curb he was able to induce certain curb or “dog” brokers to go short
of this stock without having any of it in their possession. Finally they
began to sell so freely and to pay so little attention to the amount that
was being sold that it was easy for Torbey to employ agents to buy
from all of them freely on margin. And then, as the law of the curb
and the state permitted, he had demanded (through them, of course)
the actual delivery of the shares, the full curb value of the stock
being offered. Of course the brokers had none, although they had
sold thousands; nor had any one else except Torbey, who had seen
to it that all outstanding stock had been recalled to his safe. That
meant that they must come to Torbey to buy or face a jail sentence,
and accordingly they had flocked to his office, only to be properly
mulcted for the total face value of the shares when they came.
Well, he had done that same thing in New York. Following the
example of the good Torbey, he had picked up a few unimportant
options in Honduras, far from any railroad, and had come to New
York to launch Calamita. Just as Torbey had done, he had looked for
a rich widow, a piano manufacturer’s wife in this case, and had
persuaded her that there were millions in it. From her he had gone
on to Wall Street and the curb and had done almost exactly as
Torbey had done.... Only that fellow De Malquit had killed himself,
and that was not so pleasant. He hadn’t anticipated that anything like
that would happen! That unfortunate wife of his. And those two
children made orphans. That was the darkest spot. He hadn’t known,
of course, that De Malquit himself was helping orphans—or—And
from there he had gone on to the forests of Washington and Oregon,
where he had bought immense tracts on which even yet he was
realizing, more and more. And from there it had been an easy step to
oil in southern California and Mexico—Ah, Greasadick, another sad
case!—And from there to mines and government concessions in
Peru and Ecuador, and the still greater ones in Argentina and Chile.
Money came fast to those who had it. At last, having accumulated a
fortune of at least nine millions, he had been able to interest Nadia,
and through her the clever and well-to-do fashionable set who had
backed his projects with their free capital. And by now his fortune
had swollen to almost forty millions.
But what of it? Could he say he was really content? What was he
getting out of it? Life was so deceptive; it used and then tossed one
aside. At first it had seemed wonderful to be able to go, do, act, buy
and sell as he chose, without considering anything save whether the
thing he was doing was agreeable and profitable. He had thought
that pleasure would never pall, but it had. There was this thing about
age, that it stole over one so unrelentingly, fattening one up or
thinning one down, hardening the arteries and weakening the
muscles and blood, until it was all but useless to go on. And what
was the import of his success, anyhow, especially to one who had no
children and no friends worthy of the name? There was no such
thing as true friendship in nature. It was each man for himself,
everywhere, and the devil take the hindmost. It was life that used
and tossed one aside, however great or powerful one might be.
There was no staying life or the drift of time.
Of course there had been the pleasure of building two great
houses for Nadia and living in them when he was not living in other
parts of the world. But all that had come too late; he had been too
old to enjoy them when they did come. She had been a great catch
no doubt, but much too attractive to be really interested in him at his
age. His wealth had been the point with her—any one could see that;
he knew it at the time and would not now try to deceive himself as to
that. At the time he had married her she had had social position
whereas he had none. And after she married him all her social
influence, to be sure, had been used to advance his cause. Still, that
scheme of hers to get him to leave his great fortune to those two
worthless sons of hers. Never! They were not worthy of it. Those
dancing, loafing wasters! He would see to it that his fortune was put
to some better use than that. He would leave it to orphans rather
than to them, for after all orphans in his employ had proved more
valuable to him than even they had, hadn’t they?—That curious
fellow, De Malquit!—So long ago. Besides wasn’t it Nadia’s two sons
who had influenced their mother to interest herself in D’Eyraud, the
architect who had built their two houses and had started Nadia off on
that gallery idea. And not a picture in it that would interest a sensible
person. And wasn’t it because of her that he had never troubled to
answer the letters of his sister Elvira asking him to educate her two
boys for her. He had fancied at the time that taking her two children
into his life would in some way affect his social relations with Nadia
and her set. And now Elvira was dead and he did not know where
the children were. He could charge that to her if he wanted to,
couldn’t he?
Well, life was like that. When he had built his two great houses he
had thought they would prove an immense satisfaction to him, as
they had for a time; but he would not be here much longer now to
enjoy them. He wasn’t nearly as active as he had been, and the sight
of the large companies of people that came to pose and say silly
things to each other was very wearying. They were always civil to
him, of course, but little more. They wanted the influence of his
name. And as long as he permitted it, his homes would be haunted
by those who wished to sell him things—stocks, bonds, enterprises,
tapestries, estates, horses. And those two boys of hers, along with
Nadia herself where her so-called art objects were concerned, so
busy encouraging them! Well, he was done with all that now. He
would not be bothered. Even youth and beauty of a venal character
had appeared on the scene and had attempted to set traps for him.
But his day was over. All these fripperies and pleasures were for
people younger than he. It required youth and energy to see beauty
and romance in such things, and he hadn’t a trace of either left. His
day was over and he might as well die, really, for all the good he
was, apart from his money, to any one.

The reminiscences of Byington Briggs, Esq., of Skeff,

Briggs & Waterhouse, private legal advisers to the late J.
H. Osterman, as developed in a private conversation at
the Metropolitan Club in New York in December, 19—.
“You knew old Osterman, didn’t you? I was his confidential adviser
for the last eight years of his life, and a shrewder old hawk never
sailed the air. He was a curious combination of speculator, financier
and dreamer, with a high percentage of sharper thrown in for good
measure. You’d never imagine that he was charitably inclined, now
would you? It never occurred to me until about a year and a half
before his death. I have never been able to explain it except that as
a boy he had had a very hard time and in his old age resented
seeing his two stepsons, Kester and Rand Benda, getting ready to
make free use of his fortune once he was gone. And then I think he
had come to believe that his wife was merely using him to feather
her own nest. I wouldn’t want it mentioned to a soul as coming from
me, but three months before he died he had me draw up a will
leaving his entire estate of something like forty millions, not to her, as
the earlier will filed by her showed, but to the J. H. Osterman
Foundation, a corporation whose sole purpose was to administer his
fortune for the benefit of something like three hundred thousand
orphans incarcerated in institutions in America. And but for the
accident of his sudden death out there at Shell Cove two years ago,
he would have left it that way.
“According to the terms of the will that I drew up, Mrs. Osterman
and her two sons were to receive only the interest on certain bonds
that were to be placed in trust for them for their lifetime only; after
that the money was to revert to the fund. That would have netted
them between forty and fifty thousand a year among them—nothing
more. In the will I drew up he left $500,000 outright to that Gratiot
Home for Orphans up here at 68th Street, and he intended his big
country place at Shell Cove as the central unit in a chain of modern
local asylums for orphans that was to have belted America. The
income from the property managed by the foundation was to have
been devoted to this work exclusively, and the Gratiot institution was
to have been the New York branch of the system. His wife has
leased the Shell Cove place to the Gerbermanns this year, I see, and
a wonderful place it is too, solid marble throughout, a lake a mile
long, a big sunken garden, a wonderful glassed-in conservatory, and
as fine a view of the sea as you’ll find anywhere. Yet she never knew
until the very last hour of his life—the very last, for I was there—that
he planned to cut her off with only forty or fifty thousand a year. If we
weren’t all such close friends I wouldn’t think of mentioning it even
now, although I understand that Klippert, who was his agent in the
orphan project, has been telling the story. It was this way:
“You see, I was his lawyer, and had been ever since the K. B. & B.
control fight in 1906, and the old man liked me—I don’t know why
unless it was because I drew up the right sort of ‘waterproof
contracts,’ as he always called them. Anyway, I knew six or seven
years before he died that he wasn’t getting along so well with Mrs.
Osterman. She is still an attractive woman, with plenty of brain
power and taste, but I think he had concluded that she was using
him and that he wasn’t as happy as he thought he would be. For one
thing, as I gathered from one person and another, she was much too
devoted to those two boys by her first husband, and in the next place
I think he felt that she was letting that architect D’Eyraud lead her
about too much and spend too much of his money. You know it was
common rumor at the time that D’Eyraud and his friend Beseroe,
another man the old captain disliked, were behind her in all her
selections of pictures for the gallery she was bringing together up
there in the Fifth Avenue place. Osterman, of course, knowing
absolutely nothing about art, was completely out of it. He wouldn’t
have known a fine painting from a good lithograph, and I don’t think
he cared very much either. And yet it was a painting that was one of
the causes of some feeling between them, as I will show you. At that
time he looked mighty lonely and forlorn to me, as though he didn’t
have a friend in the world outside of those business associates and
employés of his. He stayed principally in that big town house, and
Mrs. Benda—I mean Mrs. Osterman—and her sons and their friends
found a good many excuses for staying out at Shell Cove. There
were always big doings out there. Still, she was clever enough to be
around him sometimes so as to make it appear, to him at least, that
she wasn’t neglecting him. As for him, he just pottered around up
there in that great house, showing his agents and employés, and the
fellows who buzzed about him to sell him things, the pictures she
was collecting—or, rather, D’Eyraud—and letting it appear that he
was having something to do with it. For he was a vain old soldier,
even if he did have one of the best business minds of his time. You’d
think largeness of vision in some things might break a man of that,
but it never does, apparently.
“Whenever I think of him I think of that big house, those heavily
carved and gilded rooms, the enormous eighty-thousand dollar
organ built into the reception-room, and those tall stained-glass
windows that gave the place the air of a church. Beseroe once told
me that if left to follow her own taste Mrs. Osterman would never
have built that type of house, but that Osterman wanted something
grand and had got his idea of grandeur from churches. So there was
nothing to do but build him a house with tall Gothic windows and a
pipe-organ, and trust to other features to make it homelike and
livable. But before they were through with it Mrs. Osterman and
D’Eyraud had decided that the best that could be done with it would
be to build something that later could be turned into an art gallery
and either sold or left as a memorial. But I think both D’Eyraud and
Mrs. Osterman were kidding the old man a little when they had that
self-playing attachment built in. It looked to me as though they
thought he was going to be alone a good part of the time and might
as well have something to amuse himself with. And he did amuse
himself with it, too. I recall going up there one day and finding him
alone, in so far as the family was concerned, but entirely surrounded
by twenty-five or more of those hard, slick and yet nervous (where
social form was concerned) western and southern business agents
and managers of his, present there to hold a conference. A luncheon
was about to be served in the grand dining-room adjoining the
reception-room, and there were all these fellows sitting about that big
room like a lot of blackbirds, and Osterman upon a raised dais at one
end of the room solemnly rendering The Bluebells of Scotland, one
of his favorites, from the self-player attachment! And when he
finished they all applauded!
“Well, what I wanted to tell you is this: One day while I was there,
some dealer dropped in with a small picture which for some reason
took his fancy. According to Beseroe, it wasn’t such a bad thing,
painted by a Swedish realist by the name of Dargson. It showed a
rather worn-out woman of about forty-three who had committed
suicide and was lying on a bed, one hand stretched out over the
edge and a glass or bottle from which she had taken the poison lying
on the floor beside her. Two young children and a man were
standing near, commiserating themselves on their loss, I presume. It
seemed to have a tremendous impression on Osterman for some
reason or other. I could never understand why—it was not so much
art as a comment on human suffering. Nevertheless, Osterman
wanted it, but I think he wanted Nadia to buy it for her collection and
so justify his opinion of it. But Nadia, according to Beseroe, was
interested only in certain pictures as illustrations of the different
schools and periods of art in different countries. And when the dealer
approached her with the thing, at Osterman’s suggestion, it was
immediately rejected by her. At once Osterman bought it for himself,
and to show that he was not very much concerned about her opinion
he hung it in his bedroom. Thereafter he began to be quarrelsome in
regard to the worthwhileness of the gallery idea as a whole and to
object to so much money being squandered in that direction. But to
this day no one seems to know just why he liked that particular
picture so much.
“What I personally know is that it was just about this time that
Osterman began to be interested in that fellow Klippert and his plan
for improving the condition of the orphan. He finally turned him over
to me with the request that I go into the idea thoroughly, not only in
regard to the work done by the Gratiot Home but by orphan asylums
in general in America. He told us that he wanted it all kept very quiet
until he was ready to act, that if anything was said he would refuse to
have anything further to do with it. That was a part of his plan to
outwit Mrs. Osterman, of course. He told us that he wanted some
scheme in connection with orphans that would be new and
progressive, better than anything now being done, something that
would do away with great barracks and crowd regulations and cheap
ugly uniforms and would introduce a system of education and home
life in cottages. I had no idea then that he was planning the immense
thing that was really in his mind, and neither did Klippert. He thought
he might be intending to furnish enough money to revive the Gratiot
Home as an experiment, and he urged me to use my influence to
this end if I had any. As it turned out, he wanted to establish an
interstate affair, as wide as the nation, of which the place at Shell
Cove was to be the centre or head—a kind of Eastern watering-
place or resort for orphans from all over America. It was a colossal
idea and would have taken all of his money and more.
“But since he wanted it I went into the idea thoroughly with this
fellow Klippert. He was very clever, that man, honest and thorough
and business-like and disinterested, in so far as I could see. I liked
him, and so did Osterman, only Osterman wanted him to keep out of
sight of his wife until he was ready to act. Klippert made a regular
business of his problem and went all over the United States studying
institutions of the kind. Finally he came back with figures on about
fifty or sixty and a plan which was the same as that outlined to me by
Osterman and which I incorporated in his will, and there it ended for
the time being. He didn’t want to sign it right away for some reason,
and there it lay in my safe until—well, let me tell you how it was.
One Saturday morning—it was a beautiful day and I was thinking
of going out to the club to play golf—I received a long distance call
from Osterman asking me to get hold of Klippert and another fellow
by the name of Moss and bring them out to Shell Cove, along with
the will for him to sign. He had made up his mind, he said, and I
have often wondered if he had a premonition of what was going to
happen.
“I remember so well how excited Klippert was when I got him on
the wire. He was just like a boy, that fellow, in his enthusiasm for the
scheme, and apparently not interested in anything except the welfare
of those orphans. We started for Shell Cove, and what do you think?
Just as we got there—I remember it all as though it had happened
yesterday. It was a bright, hot Saturday afternoon. There were some
big doings on the grounds, white-and-green and white-and-red
striped marque tents, and chairs and swings and tables everywhere.
Some of the smartest people were there, sitting or walking or
dancing on the balcony. And there was Osterman walking up and
down the south verandah near the main motor entrance, waiting for
us, I suppose. As we drove up he recognized us, for he waved his
hand, and then just as we were getting out and he was walking
towards us, I saw him reel and go down. It was just as though some
one had struck him with something. I realized that it must be
paralysis or a stroke of apoplexy and I chilled all over at the thought
of what it might mean. Klippert went up the steps four at a time, and
as we all ran down the verandah they carried him in and I
telephoned for a doctor. Klippert was very still and white. All we
could do was to stand around and wait and look at each other, for
Mrs. Osterman and her sons were there and were taking charge.
Finally word came out that Mr. Osterman was a little better and
wanted to see us, so up we went. He had been carried into an airy,
sunny room overlooking the sea and was lying in a big white
canopied bed looking as pale and weak as he would if he had been
ill for a month. He could scarcely speak and lay there and looked at
us for a time, his mouth open and a kind of tremor passing over his
lips from time to time. Then he seemed to gather a little strength and
whispered: ‘I want—I want—’ and then he stopped and rested,
unable to go on. The doctor arrived and gave him a little whisky, and
then he began again, trying so hard to speak and not quite making it.
At last he whispered: ‘I want—I want—that—that—paper.’ And then:
‘Klippert—and you—’ He stopped again, then added: ‘Get all these
others out of here—all but you three and the doctor.’
“The doctor urged Mrs. Osterman and her sons to leave, but I
could see that she didn’t like it. Even after she went out she kept
returning on one excuse and another, and she was there when he
died. When she was out of the room the first time I produced the will
and he nodded his approval. We called for a writing board, and they
brought one—a Ouija board, by the way. We lifted him up, but he
was too weak and fell back. When we finally got him up and spread
the will before him he tried to grasp the pen but he couldn’t close his
fingers. He shook his head and half whispered: The——the——boys
—th—the—boys.’ Klippert was all excited, but Osterman could do
nothing. Then his wife came into the room and asked: ‘What is it that
you are trying to make poor Johnnie sign? Don’t you think you had
better let it rest until he is stronger?’ She tried to pick up the paper
but I was too quick for her and lifted it to one side as though I hadn’t
noticed that she had reached for it. I could see that she was aware
that something was being done that neither we nor Osterman
wanted her to know about, and her eyes fairly snapped. Osterman
must have realized that things were becoming a little shaky for he
kept looking at first one and then another of us with a most unhappy
look. He motioned for the pen and will. Klippert put down the board
and I the paper, and he leaned forward and tried to grasp the pen.
When he found he couldn’t he actually groaned: ‘The—the—I—I—I
want to—to—do something—for—for—the—the—the—’ Then he fell
back, and the next moment was dead.
 “But I wish you could have seen Klippert. It wasn’t anything he
said or did, but just something that passed over his face, the shadow
of a great cause or idea dying, let us say. Something seemed to go
out from or die in him, just as old Osterman had died. He turned and
went out without a word. I would have gone too, only Mrs. Osterman
intercepted me.
“You might think that at such a moment she would have been too
wrought up to think of anything but her husband’s death, but she
wasn’t. Far from it. Instead, as her husband was lying there, and
right before the doctor, she came over to me and demanded to see
the paper. I was folding it up to put into my pocket when she flicked it
out of my hands. ‘I am sure you can have no objection to my seeing
this,’ she said icily, and when I protested she added: ‘I am sure that I
have a right to see my own husband’s will.’ I had only been
attempting to spare her feelings, but when I saw what her attitude
was I let it go at that and let her read it.
“I wish you could have seen her face! Her eyes narrowed and she
bent over the paper as though she were about to eat it. When she
fully comprehended what it was all about she fairly gasped and
shook—with rage, I think—though fear as to what might have
happened except for her husband’s weakness may have been a part
of it. She looked at him, at his dead body, the only glance he got
from her that day, I’m sure, then at me, and left the room. Since
there was nothing more to do, I went too.
“And that’s the reason Mrs. Osterman has never been friends with
me since, though she was genial enough before. But it was a close
shave for her, all the same, and don’t you think it wasn’t. Just an
ounce or two more of strength in that old codger’s system, and think
what would have been done with those millions. She wouldn’t have
got even a million of it all told. And those little ragamuffins would
have had it all. How’s that for a stroke of chance?”
 XIII
THE SHADOW

W HAT had given him his first hint that all might not be as well at
home as he imagined was the incident of the automobile. Up to
that time he had not had a troubled thought about her, not one. But
after—Well, it was a year and a half now and although suspicion still
lingered it was becoming weaker. But it had not been obliterated
even though he could not help being fond of Beryl, especially since
they had Tickles to look after between them. But anyhow, in spite of
all his dark thoughts and subtle efforts to put two and two together,
he had not been able to make anything of it. Perhaps he was being
unjust to her to go on brooding about it.... But how was it possible
that so many suspicious-looking things could happen in a given time,
and one never be able to get the straight of them?
The main thing that had hampered him was his work. He was
connected with the Tri-State Paper Company, at the City Order desk,
and as a faithful employé he was not supposed to leave during
working hours without permission, and it was not always easy to get
permission. It was easy to count the times he had been off—once to
go to the dentist, and two or three times to go home when Beryl was
ill. Yet it just happened that on that particular afternoon his superior,
Mr. Baggott, had suggested that he, in the place of Naigly who
always attended to such matters but was away at the time, should
run out to the Detts-Scanlon store and ask Mr. Pierce just what was
wrong with that last order that had been shipped. There was a mix-
up somewhere, and it had been impossible to get the thing straight
over the telephone.
Well, just as he was returning to the office, seated in one of those
comfortable cross seats of the Davenant Avenue line and looking at
the jumble of traffic out near Blakely Avenue, and just as the car was
nearing the entrance to Briscoe Park he saw a tan-and-chocolate-
colored automobile driven by a biggish man in a light tan overcoat
and cap swing into view, cross in front of the car, and enter the park.
It was all over in a flash. But just as the car swung near him who
should he see sitting beside the man but Beryl, or certainly a woman
who was enough like her to be her twin sister. He would have sworn
it was Beryl. And what was more, and worse, she was smiling up at
this man as though they were on the best of terms and had known
each other a long time! Of course he had only had a glimpse, and
might have been mistaken. Beryl had told him that morning that she
was going to spend the afternoon with her mother. She often did
that, sometimes leaving Tickles there while she did her mother’s
marketing. Or, she and her mother, or she and her sister Alice, if she
chanced to be there, would take the baby for a walk in the park. Of
course he might have been mistaken.
But that hat with the bunch of bright green grapes on the side....
And that green-and-white striped coat.... And that peculiar way in
which she always held her head when she was talking. Was it really
Beryl? If it wasn’t, why should he have had such a keen conviction
that it was?
Up to that time there never had been anything of a doubtful
character between them—that is, nothing except that business of the
Raskoffsky picture, which didn’t amount to much in itself. Anybody
might become interested in a great violinist and write him for his
photo, though even that couldn’t be proved against Beryl. It was
inscribed to Alice. But even if she had written him, that wasn’t a
patch compared to this last, her driving about in a car with a strange
man. Certainly that would justify him in any steps that he chose to
take, even to getting a divorce.
But what had he been able to prove so far? Nothing. He had tried
to find her that afternoon, first at their own house, then at her
mother’s, and then at Winton & Marko’s real estate office, where
Alice sometimes helped out, but he couldn’t find a trace of her. Still,
did that prove anything once and for all? She might have been to the
concert as she said, she and Alice. It must be dull to stay in the
house all day long, anyhow, and he couldn’t blame her for doing the
few things she did within their means. Often he tried to get in touch
with her of a morning or afternoon, and there was no answer, seeing
that she was over to her mother’s or out to market, as she said. And
up to the afternoon of the automobile it had never occurred to him
that there was anything queer about it. When he called up Beryl’s
mother she had said that Beryl and Alice had gone to a concert and
it wasn’t believable that Mrs. Dana would lie to him about anything.
Maybe the two of them were doing something they shouldn’t, or
maybe Alice was helping Beryl to do something she shouldn’t,
without their mother knowing anything about it. Alice was like that,
sly. It was quite certain that if there had been any correspondence
between Beryl and that man Raskoffsky, that time he had found the
picture inscribed to Alice, it had been Alice who had been the go-
between. Alice had probably allowed her name and address to be
used for Beryl’s pleasure—that is, if there was anything to it at all. It
wasn’t likely that Beryl would have attempted anything like that
without Alice’s help.
But just the same he had never been able to prove that they had
been in league, at that time or any other. If there was anything in it
they were too clever to let him catch them. The day he thought he
had seen her in the car he had first tried to get her by telephone and
then had gone to the office, since it was on his way, to get
permission to go home for a few minutes. But what had he gained by
it? By the time he got there, Beryl and her mother were already
there, having just walked over from Mrs. Dana’s home, according to
Beryl. And Beryl was not wearing the hat and coat he had seen in
the car, and that was what he wanted to find out. But between the
time he had called up her mother and the time he had managed to
get home she had had time enough to return and change her clothes
and go over to her mother’s if there was any reason why she should.
That was what had troubled him and caused him to doubt ever since.
She would have known by then that he had been trying to get her on
the telephone and would have had any answer ready for him. And
that may have been exactly what happened, assuming that she had
been in the car and gotten home ahead of him, and presuming her
mother had lied for her, which she would not do—not Mrs. Dana. For
when he had walked in, a little flushed and excited, Beryl had
exclaimed: “Whatever is the matter, Gil?” And then: “What a crazy
thing, to come hurrying home just to ask me about this! Of course I
haven’t been in any car. How ridiculous! Ask Mother. You wouldn’t
expect her to fib for me, would you?” And then to clinch the matter
she had added: “Alice and I left Tickles with her and went to the
concert after going into the park for a while. When we returned, Alice
stopped home so Mother could walk over here with me. What are
you so excited about.” And for the life of him, he had not been able
to say anything except that he had seen a woman going into Briscoe
Park in a tan-and-chocolate car, seated beside a big man who
looked like—well, he couldn’t say exactly whom he did look like. But
the woman beside him certainly looked like Beryl. And she had had
on a hat with green grapes on one side and a white-and-green
striped sports coat, just like the one she had. Taking all that into
consideration, what would any one think? But she had laughed it off,
and what was he to say? He certainly couldn’t accuse Mrs. Dana of
not knowing what she was talking about, or Beryl of lying, unless he
was sure of what he was saying. She was too strong-minded and too
strong-willed for that. She had only married him after a long period of
begging on his part; and she wasn’t any too anxious to live with him
now unless they could get along comfortably together.
Yet taken along with that Raskoffsky business of only a few
months before, and the incident of the Hotel Deming of only the day
before (but of which he had thought nothing until he had seen her in
the car), and the incident of the letters in the ashes, which followed
on the morning after he had dashed home that day, and then that
business of the closed car in Bergley Place, just three nights
afterwards—well, by George! when one put such things together—
It was very hard to put these things in the order of their effect on
him, though it was easy to put them in their actual order as to time.
The Hotel Deming incident had occurred only the day before the
automobile affair and taken alone, meant nothing, just a chance
encounter with her on the part of Naigly, who had chosen to speak of
it. But joined afterwards with the business of the partly burned letters
and after seeing her in that car or thinking he had—Well—After that,
naturally his mind had gone back to that Hotel Deming business, and
to the car, too. Naigly, who had been interested in Beryl before her
marriage (she had been Baggott’s stenographer), came into the
office about four—the day before he had seen Beryl, or thought he
had, in the car, and had said to him casually: “I saw your wife just
now, Stoddard.” “That so? Where?” “She was coming out of the
Deming ladies’ entrance as I passed just now.” Well, taken by itself,
there was nothing much in that, was there? There was an arcade of
shops which made the main entrance to the Deming, and it was easy
to go through that and come out of one of the other entrances. He
knew Beryl had done it before, so why should he have worried about
it then? Only, for some reason, when he came home that evening
Beryl didn’t mention that she had been downtown that day until he
asked her. “What were you doing about four to-day?” “Downtown,
shopping. Why? Did you see me? I went for Mother.” “Me? No. Who
do you know in the Deming?” “No one”—this without a trace of self-
consciousness, which was one of the things that made him doubt
whether there had been anything wrong. “Oh, yes; I remember now. I
walked through to look at the hats in Anna McCarty’s window, and
came out the ladies’ entrance. Why?” “Oh, nothing. Naigly said he
saw you, that’s all. You’re getting to be a regular gadabout these
days.” “Oh, what nonsense! Why shouldn’t I go through the Deming
Arcade? I would have stopped in to see you, only I know you don’t
like me to come bothering around there.”
And so he had dismissed it from his mind—until the incident of the
car.
And then the matter of the letters ... and Raskoffsky ...
Beryl was crazy about music, although she couldn’t play except a
little by ear. Her mother had been too poor to give her anything more
than a common school education, which was about all that he had
had. But she was crazy about the violin and anybody who could play
it, and when any of the great violinists came to town she always
managed to afford to go. Raskoffsky was a big blond Russian who
played wonderfully, so she said. She and Alice had gone to hear
him, and for weeks afterward they had raved about him. They had
even talked of writing to him, just to see if he would answer, but he
had frowned on such a proceeding because he didn’t want Beryl
writing to any man. What good would it do her? A man like that
wouldn’t bother about answering her letter, especially if all the
women were as crazy about him as the papers said. Yet later he had
found Raskoffsky’s picture in Beryl’s room, only it was inscribed to
Alice.... Still, Beryl might have put Alice up to it, might even have
sent her own picture under Alice’s name, just to see if he would
answer. They had talked of sending a picture. Besides, if Alice had
written and secured this picture, why wasn’t it in her rather than
Beryl’s possession. He had asked about that. Yet the one flaw in that
was that Alice wasn’t really good-looking enough to send her picture
and she knew it. Yet Beryl had sworn that she hadn’t written. And
Alice had insisted that it was she and not Beryl who had written. But
there was no way of proving that she hadn’t or that Beryl had.
Yet why all the secrecy? Neither of them had said anything more
about writing Raskoffsky after that first time. And it was only because
he had come across Raskoffsky’s picture in one of Beryl’s books that
he had come to know anything about it at all. “To my fair little
western admirer who likes my ‘Dance Macabre’ so much. The next
time I play in your city you must come and see me.” But Alice wasn’t
fair or good-looking. Beryl was. And it was Beryl and not Alice, who
had first raved over that dance; Alice didn’t care so much for music.
And wasn’t it Beryl, and not Alice, who had proposed writing him. Yet
it was Alice who had received the answer. How was that? Very likely
it was Beryl who had persuaded Alice to write for her, sending her
own instead of Alice’s picture, and getting Alice to receive
Raskoffsky’s picture for her when it came. Something in their manner
the day he had found the picture indicated as much. Alice had been
so quick to say: “Oh yes. I wrote him.” But Beryl had looked a little
queer when she caught him looking at her, had even flushed slightly,
although she had kept her indifferent manner. At that time the
incident of the car hadn’t occurred. But afterwards,—after he had
imagined he had seen Beryl in the car—it had occurred to him that
maybe it was Raskoffsky with whom she was with that day. He was
playing in Columbus, so the papers said, and he might have been
passing through the city. He was a large man too, as he now
recalled, by George! If only he could find a way to prove that!