Sugar #11 (ICE) - Daily Log Scale -C-

(V)

Previous Count ~ 11/28/09

( III ) “b”
“5” c
“d”
b
“3” d
a

21.78
21.18 a c e?
“4” b
“c” “e”
“a” ( IV )

“1”

(I) “2”

This was the count that we had been employing for a few months. However, looking
back on the price action, there were several small problems with this model that started
to “add” up in a way that made me go back to the drawing board. Some of the issues
( II ) were:

a) The wave “4” was not a triangle.

b) The “a” wave of (IV) exceeded the boundary of the lesser degree wave “4”
alt:-B-
b) The c-wave within “b” was too short of duration for a c-wave (it should have taken
longer).
d) The “e” wave of (IV) was becoming the longest wave in the triangle. (impossible)
-B-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Sugar #11 (ICE) - Daily Log Scale -C-
(V)

The problems with the previous model are all remedied with this
revised counting. The Wave (III) probably concluded at 25.37 with ( III )
the rollover to the March ’10 contract. With this model, we
actually get a nice triangle Wave “4” that makes more sense. The Alt: (III) “5”
Wave “5” ends up being an EXACT 38.2% of the entire Wave (III), b
25.37 “b”
a very nice target. The other thing this count explains is why the
market held the level it did on the most recent “c” wave (Dubai “d”
“3”
drop): A higher degree fourth wave ‘should’ not break below a d
lesser degree fourth.
22.09
“e”
a e “c”
“a” ( IV )
c “4”

“1”

“2”
(I)

( II )
The “thrust” appears to have begun at 22.09. If this is right, March Sugar futures should
be able to see the 28-29 range for a final Wave (V). If the previous “5” is any guide, it
should be a fairly quick move that should just take a few weeks.
alt:-B-

-B-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 3
Sugar #11 (ICE) - 60 minute.

The Wave (IV) looks to have ended at 22.09. From that level, it appears we’ve had a Wave 1 and
2 and are now launching in a Wave-3. It’s possible that wave-1 has not yet completed. Because
of this, Sugar bulls should use 23.09  22.86 zone as support. Under the bullish models alt: 1
presented here, Sugar should NOT trade below 22.86 again until it completes the Wave (V)

1
“d”

22.09
These are corrective waves. Therefore,
the “thrust” probably began at 22.09
“e”
(IV )

“c”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Sugar #11 (ICE) - March ’10 vs. Oct ’10 Spread

This still likes like a huge pennant/flag pattern that appears on the verge of exploding higher. There is a very bullish
looking formation that implies “tight” supplies for March Sugar relative to October Sugar futures.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Sugar #11 (ICE) - Daily Candlesticks
The last two days of trading have now engulfed several weeks of trading. Anyone who has sold Sugar in the last month is underwater.

The downtrend line has been “decisively” broken. The

velocity of the move is the most severe we have seen since
late September, nice visual evidence that a “thrust” is
underway.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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