1.

1 Populations in
transition

Key command words that you will

need to know
1) Explain

a) Break down in order to bring out the

essential elements or structure

2) Analyse
3) Evaluate

b) Offer a considered and balanced review

that includes a range of arguments,
factors or hypotheses. Opinions or
conclusions should be presented clearly
and supported by appropriate evidence

4) Examine

c) Make an appraisal by weighing up the

strengths and limitations

5) Discuss

d) Consider an argument or concept in a

way that uncovers the assumptions and
interrelationships of the issue
e) Give a detailed account including reasons
or causes

Key command words that you will

need to know
1) Explain

2) Analyse

a) Give a detailed account including

reasons or causes
b) Break down in order to bring out the
essential elements or structure
c) Make an appraisal by weighing up the
strengths and limitations

3) Evaluate

4) Examine

5) Discuss

d) Consider an argument or concept in a

way that uncovers the assumptions and
interrelationships of the issue
e) Offer a considered and balanced review
that includes a range of arguments,
factors or hypotheses. Opinions or
conclusions should be presented clearly
and supported by appropriate evidence

1.1a Population change

Population change:
Objectives
Explain population trends and
patterns in contrasting regions of the
world:
Births (Crude Birth Rate)
Natural increase and mortality (Crude
Death Rate, infant and child mortality
rates),
Fertility
Life expectancy
AO2: Explain
Give a detailed account including reasons or

Exponential population growth!

Task
Watch the following video
http://youtu.be/Fwp5TMoxs1o
Make notes of the key ideas on the sheet 7
billion

Population of
the world.

Quick history lesson

What do you think about

How can we start to explain the

global variation in trends?
Watch the first 2m30 of this Ted Talk
http://youtu.be/hVimVzgtD6w

Identify the country from these pairs that has the

highest Child Mortality Rate

In groups, suggest reasons for the answers

Definition of some important terms

1) Trend In which direction is something going?
2) Pattern The arrangement/distribution of
3) Region A large area of land/sea
4) Crude birth rate (CBR) Births per 1000 of the population
5) Crude death rate (CDR) - Deaths per 1000 of the population
6) Infant mortality rate (IMR) Infant deaths (under 1 year
old) per 1000 live births
7) Child mortality rates (CMR) - Child deaths (under 5 yrs old)
per 1000 live births
8) Fertility rates (FR) Number of children per woman
9) Life expectancy (LE) Number of years expected to live at
time of birth
10)Natural increase (NI) Where CBR>CDR

1) Explaining Crude Birth Rates

ot the following data on to your graph, and describe the trend and pat
Crude
1950Birth rate 1955

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20052010

World

37

35

31

28

24

21

20

Europe

21

19

16

14

12

10

11

Africa

48

47

46

44

40

37

36

Asia

42

39

35

29

25

20

19

Northern
America

25

22

16

15

15

14

14

Latin
America +
Caribbean

43

41

35

31

25

21

19

Oceania

27

26

24

20

20

18

18

2) Watch this video: http://youtu.be/ezVk1ahRF78

3) Now try to explain these trends and patterns

2) Explaining Crude Death Rates

ot the following data on to your graph, and describe the trend and pat
Crude
death rate

19501955

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20052010

World
Africa

19
11
26

16
10
22

12
10
19

10
11
16

9
11
15

9
12
13

8
11
12

Asia

22

19

12

Northern
America

Latin
America +
Caribbean

16

12

10

Oceania

12

11

10

Europe

2) Read this article - http://goo.gl/ozPMGc (write 1 line to

summarise each section)

3) Explaining Infant Mortality Rates

ot the following data on to your graph, and describe the trend and pat
Infant
mortality
rate

19501955

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20052010

World

133

114

86

71

60

51

46

Europe

73

37

25

18

13

Africa

180

154

131

111

102

87

79

Asia

145

127

87

72

57

46

41

31

26

18

11

127

101

81

57

38

26

22

60

49

41

33

28

25

22

Northern
America
Latin
America +
Caribbean
Oceania

2) Read this article - http://goo.gl/TzytVl (write 1 line to summarise

each section)

4) Explaining Child Mortality Rates

ot the following data on to your graph, and describe the trend and pat
Child
mortality
rates
World
Europe
Africa
Asia
Northern
America
Latin
America +
Caribbean
Oceania

1980-1985 1990-1995 2000-2005 2005-2010

105
22
181
103

88
15
166
79

73
10
141
62

66
9
125
54

14

10

74

50

32

28

44

38

33

28

2) Read this article - http://goo.gl/wnxkiq (write 1 line to summarise

each section)

5) Explaining Fertility Rates

ot the following data on to your graph, and describe the trend and pat
Fertility
rate
World
Europe
Africa
Asia
Northern
America
Latin
America
+
Caribbea
n
Oceania

19501955

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20052010

4.95
2.65
6.6
5.82

4.91
2.56
6.71
5.59

4.45
2.17
6.67
5

3.59
1.89
6.39
3.69

3.04
1.57
5.62
2.97

2.62
1.43
4.94
2.41

2.52
1.53
4.64
2.28

3.33

3.36

2.05

1.79

1.96

1.99

2.03

5.86

5.96

5.02

3.93

3.02

2.53

2.3

3.81

3.3

2.58

2.49

2.41

2.49

2) Watch this infographic - http://youtu.be/rilAlXjunIE

3) Now try to explain these trends and patterns

6) Explaining Life Expectancy

ot the following data on to your graph, and describe the trend and pat
Life
expectanc
y
World
Europe
Africa
Asia
Northern
America
Latin
America +
Caribbean
Oceania

19501955

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20052010

47.66
65.58
38.17
42.94

51.19
69.63
42.39
46.36

58.5
70.79
46.56
56.99

62.06
71.73
50.13
61.59

64.38
72.58
51.18
64.95

66.42
73.79
52.9
67.6

67.88
75.36
55.16
68.98

68.65

70.24

71.47

74.46

75.85

77.44

78.22

51.28

56.77

60.86

65.16

68.88

72.11

73.41

60.5

64.06

66.62

70.12

72.48

75.19

76.65

2) Read this article - http://goo.gl/dWwg2Z (write 1 line to

summarise each section)

7) Explaining Natural Increase

ot the following data on to your graph, and describe the trend and pat
Natural
increase

19501955

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20052010

World

18

19

19

18

15

12

12

Europe

10

-2

Africa

22

25

27

28

25

24

24

Asia

20

20

23

20

17

12

12

16

13

27

29

25

23

18

15

13

15

15

14

12

12

11

11

Northern
America
Latin
America +
Caribbean
Oceania

2) Having explained the other indices, you should now be able to

link them all together to explain the Natural Increase

Click here to see the finished gra

Exam style questions

Between you, answer one of the following questions on
a shared google doc:
1) Explain the differences in births in two contrasting geographical locations. [5 marks]
2) Explain the differences in natural increase in two contrasting geographical locations.
[5 marks]
3) Explain the differences in mortality in two contrasting geographical locations. [5
marks]
4) Explain the differences in fertility in two contrasting geographical locations. [5
marks]
5) Explain the differences in life expectancy in two contrasting geographical locations.
[5 marks]

This is a 5 mark question and therefore writing the answer should

take about 7 or 8 minutes in your IB examination and be about

Creating your case study data

table
On this document, http://goo.gl/QM2xRC you will
slowly build up your case studies over the
course
For the listed countries, add in the
following data:

Crude birth rate

Crude death rate
Natural Increase
Infant mortality
Child mortality
Total fertility rate

With this Google sheet,

you will be able to map
all your case study
information

1.1a Population change

Population pyramids: objectives

To analyse population pyramids
Identify and explain patterns within population
pyramids
Calculate ageing and dependency ratios

AO2: Analyse
Break down in order to bring
out the essential elements or
structure.
AO2: Explain
Give a detailed account
including reasons or causes.

Card sortMatch the correct

pyramid with the country and
population!

Match the correct pyramid with

the country and population!

What Population Pyramids Show Us

Population pyramids show the structure of a population
in terms of sex and age.
By analysing population pyramids you can see trends in
birth rates, death rates and life expectancy.
This helps predict population growth, which is important
for governments planning future services and facilities

Trends

Wide base suggests high birth rate

Narrow base indicates falling birth rate
Straight or near vertical sides shows a low death rate
A concave slope suggests high death rate
Bulges in the slope suggest high rates of in-migration
Excess males of 20-35 could be economic migrants seeking
work

Excess male + female suggest a baby boom

What Population Pyramids Show Us

Economically
More
Developed
Country

Economically
Less
Developed
Country

slope of pyramid indicate the death rate

width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate

proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migration
height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end
wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority)
"kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in
death rate in the past

area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of different

population age groups or different sex on one graph

The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate

How do population pyramids

change with economic
development?

Ageing or youthful populations:

The dependency ratio
The dependency ratio tells you how many
economically inactive people (0-15 and 65+) are
dependent upon the economically active
population (16 to 64).

The equation above calculates a figure which shows

the number of economically inactive people
that are reliant on 100 economically active
people.
So a result such as 81.8 would mean that for every
100 economically active people there are 81.8
economically inactive people.

Calculating dependency ratios

Country

% of
country's
population in
0-15 age
bracket

% of country's
population in
65+ age
bracket

% of country's
population
that is
economically
active

Dependency
Ratio

Australia

18.9

13.9

67.2

48.8

USA

20.2

13.0

66.8

49.7

UK
UK
China
China
Morocco
Morocco
Haiti
Haiti
Niger
Niger

17.4
17.4
19.9
19.9
28.0
28.0
35.9
35.9
50.1
50.1

16.6
16.6
8.2
8.2
5.4
5.4
4.4
4.4
2.0
2.0

66

51.5

71.9

39.1

66.6

50.2

59.7

67.5

47.9

108.8

How can we interpret these ratios?

Youthful populations
High dependency ratios suggest a youthful
population
This has many advantages and disadvantages
Any thoughts?
Advantages

Disadvantages

Large potential workforce

Cost of supporting schools and clinics

Lower medical costs

Need to provide sufficient

food/housing/water to growing population
(eg: Kiberia, Nairobi)

Attractive to new investment

High rates of unemployment

Source of new innovation and ideas

Large numbers living in poor quality

housing

Large potential market for selected goods

High rates of population growth

Development of schools

High crime rates

Ageing populations

Ageing Ratio is the proportion people 65 years old and over to the total populat

Study the graph

Describe and
explain
Australias
changing
dependency ratios
Typically, youthful
populations are
found in LEDCs,
while ageing
populations are
found in MEDCs

lia has an ageing population, despite the total dependency ratio decrea

Analysing population pyramids

1. Visit www.populationpyramid.net and select the population
pyramid of your home country
2. Take a screenshot for 1950, 2015, 2080
3. Calculate the dependency ratio and ageing ratio for each
one
4. Arrange them into a google doc and describe in detail how
the structure has, and will change (refer to evidence)
5. Contrast the structures of population pyramids in LEDCs and
MEDCs, and account for the differences
Part 2Extended writing
Read through pg12-14 in the IBCC and chapter 1 in People and
Planet

Using examples, discuss the following statement (1 side

minimum)

Exam style questions

With reference to the population change shown
between Niger 2010 and Niger 2050, what
considerations will need to be made in the
provision of services and employment
between 2010 and 2050?[5 Marks]
With reference to the population change shown
between Australia 2010 and Australia 2050,
what considerations will need to be made in the
provision of services and employment
between 2010 and 2050?[5 Marks]

1.1a Population change

Lots of people make lots of

babies
Why does the population continue to grow at
such a fast rate despite the natural increase
(or growth rate) reducing significantly over
the last 50 years?
Answer: Population Momentum

f natural increase in India? http://www.metronomeonline.com/ then sele

How does population momentum

impact population projections?
Population momentum is the situation where a population
continues to grow despite falling birth and fertility rates.
The situation is due to the large percentage of the
population which are of pre-childbearing and childbearing
age.
As this 'productive' section of the population grows older
they will reproduce causing birth rates to exceed death rate
and so natural increase will lead to continued population
growth.

Watch this video: http://youtu.be/htw2b4iXCEc

Make notes on the key points that he makes

What is Population Momentum?

Population momentum - The tendency for
population growth to continue beyond the time that
replacement-level fertility has been achieved
(typically 2.1)
because of a relatively high concentration of people in
the childbearing years.

For example, the absolute numbers of people in

developing countries will continue to increase
over the next several decades even as the rates of
population growth will decline.
This phenomenon is due to past high fertility
rates which results in a large number of young
people
As these youth grow older and move through

Population projections

Watch the following video on population projections: http://youtu.be/qZNI4Mh_0_

1. What does a demographer do?

2. Outline what will happen to the population of Uganda by
2050 and 2067?
3. What is this population number based on?
4. What is the current fertility rate in Uganda?
5. What are the three variants and what do they assume in
Uganda's case?
6. Why is predicting a projection for a currently fast growing
population tricky? Outline and the four principles.
7. What does the world population projection graph show
for future growth?
8. What confuses projections for the future

The impacts of population

momentum
Watch: Population projections
The 7 billionth person was added in 12 years
Q: Quickly discuss what you think the impacts of this could be
- environmental?
- Political?
- Social?
- Economic?
1) Read this article first summarise the paragraphs between you

http://

goo.gl/vnweg4

2) The next article do you think that we could reach 15 billion? http://goo.gl/Hnwr68
3) Govts prepare / plan based on population projections what if they are
wrong? http://goo.gl/mA99yo

Task:
Complete the worksheet on population projections. Study the graphs and
skim the articles, making notes on the potential consequences for each

What do you understand so far?

Complete the final activities on the population
momentum sheet
These are exam style questions, think through how you will
earn your marks!

1) Describe the differences between the High, Medium and

Low projections of Fertility rate. [3 marks]
2) Define population momentum. [2 marks]
3) Discuss the problems that population momentum could
cause in any country with similar projected fertility rates
(to that in the graph above) in the immediate and long
term future. [6 marks]