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    Poglavlje 10 predavanja.ppt

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    15 views21 pages

    Poglavlje 10 Predavanja

    Uploaded by

    Anonymous RxIwjU

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 21

    X

    -

    -


    Y=a+bX

    -

    -

    1

    = =
    . .

    3


    :



    100.000 . 30 ../. 3.000.000 .. 2.000.000 .. 5.000.000 .. 50,00 ../.
    200.000 . 30 ../. 6.000.000 .. 2.000.000 .. 8.000.000 .. 40,00 ../.
    300.000 . 30 ../. 9.000.000 .. 2.000.000 .. 11.000.000 .. 36,67 ../.
    500.000 . 30 ../. 15.000.000 .. 2.000.000 .. 17.000.000 .. 34,00 ../.
    800.000 . 30 ../. 24.000.000 .. 2.000.000 .. 26.000.000 .. 32,50 ../.

    :




    4


    , :
    -
    -
    -

    :
    1.
    ( )
    2.
    ( )
    3.
    ( )
    4.
    ( )

    6
    2 (10-20)

    2012. 10.000 .
    :
    () 50.000 ..
    , 4.000 ..
    12.000 ..
    5.000 ..
    1.000 ..
    20.000 ..
    8.000 ..

    )
    , .
    ) 2012. .
    ) 2013. ,
    2013. 12.000
    , (
    ) 10% 7


    :
    1.
    2.
    3.
    4.
    5. ()
    6.

    Y= a + bX:
    - (high-low ):

    (b) = (
    ) / (
    )

    ( - )
    -

    a=y-bx

    9
    3
    ( , high low method)

    ( )
    1 13.900 .. 20 .
    2 22.500 .. 40 .
    3 14.800 .. 15 .
    4 18.452 .. 38 .
    5 14.600 .. 18 .
    6 20.624 .. 27 .
    7 16.831 .. 32 .
    8 21.429 .. 32 .
    9 22.267 .. 24 .
    10 16.900 .. 19 .

    10
    3
    ( , high low method)
    -



    ( )
    40 22.500
    15 14.800
    25 7.700

    : Y = a + b X

    () = 7.700 / 25 = 308 ..

    () = 22.500 (308 x (40)) = 22.500 12.320 = 10.180 ..


    = 14.800 (308 x (15) = 14.800 4.620 = 10.180 ..

    : Y = 10.180 ..+ (308 ../. x X)


    11


    Y= a + bX:

    -
    ,

    -

    y x x x y
    2

    y anb x a
    n x x
    2 2

    x y a x b x 2
    b
    n x y x y
    n x x
    2 2

    12
    4




    x2 xy
    (n)
    (y)
    (x)
    1 13.900 20 400 278.000
    2 22.500 40 1.600 900.000
    3 14.800 15 225 222.000
    4 18.452 38 1.444 701.000
    5 14.600 18 324 262.800
    6 20.624 27 729 556.848
    7 16.831 32 1.024 538.592
    8 21.429 32 1.024 685.728
    9 22.267 24 576 534.408
    10 16.900 19 361 321.100

    y = 182.303 x = 265 x2 = 7.707 xy = 5.000.652


    (x)2 = 2652= 70.225
    13
    4
    -

    a
    y x x x y
    2

    n x x
    2 2

    n x y x y
    b
    n x x
    2 2

    = ((182.303 x 7.707) (265 x 5.000.652)) / (10 x 7.707) - 2652=


    = (1.405.009.221 - 1.325.172.780) / (77.070 - 70.225) = 79.836.441 / 6.845 =
    11.663,47 ..

    b = (10 x 5.000.652) (265 x 182.303) / (10 x 7.707) - 2652=


    = (50.006.520 - 48.310.295) / (77.070 - 70.225) = 1.696.225 / 6.845 = 247,80

    :
    Y = 11.663,47 .. 247,80 x X

    14


    :
    1. -


    2. -
    (
    )

    15
    -


    ( )

    ( )

    16
    -

    :
    Y = Xb

    y = ( )
    x =
    a =
    b = ; = ln (% ) / ln 2

    17
    5 (10-27) ,



    (1) (2) (3) = (1) x (2)
    1 3.000 3.000
    2 (3.000 x 0,90) = 2.700 5.400
    4 (2.700 x 0,90) = 2.430 9.720
    8 (2.430 x 0,90) = 2.187 17.496

    2, :
    y = Xb

    a = 3.000, X = 2 b = - 0,1520, :

    X = 2, y = 3.000 x 2 0,1520 = 2.700


    X = 4, y = 3.000 x 4 0,1520 = 2.430
    X = 8, y = 3.000 x 8 0,1520 = 2.187
    18
    5 (10-27) ,
    -

    . . ( ..)

    2 . 4 . 8 .
    80.000 x (2; 4; 8) 160.000 320.000 640.000
    25 x (5.400; 9.720; 17.496) 135.000 243.000 437.400
    . . . 15 x (5.400; 9.720; 17.496) 81.000 145.800 262.440
    376.000 708.800 1.339.840

    19
    6 (10-28) ,


    X
    (1) (2) (3)
    1 3.000 3.000
    2 (3.000 x 0,90) = 2.700 5.700
    3 2.539 8.239
    4 (2.700 x 0,90) = 2.430 10.669

    2 :
    y = Xb
    a = 3.000, X = 2, 3 4 b = - 0,1520, :
    X = 2, y = 3.000 x 2 0,1520 = 2.700
    X = 3, y = 3.000 x 3 0,1520 = 2.539
    X = 4, y = 3.000 x 4 0,1520 = 2.430 20
    6 (10-28) ,
    -

    . .

    2 . 3 . 4 .
    80.000 x (2; 3; 4) 160.000 240.000 320.000
    25 x (5.700; 8.239; 10.669) 142.000 205.975 266.725
    . . . 15 x (5.700; 8.239; 10.669) 85.500 123.585 160.035
    388.000 569.560 746.760

    . .
    ( ..)
    2 . 4 .
    . ( 1) 388.000 746.760
    - . ( . ) 376.000 708.800
    12.000 37.960
    21

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