An Industry Perspective on

Future Geology Education

Trends

M. Stephen Enders Colorado School of Mines

Society of Economic Geologists

VII International Congress of Explorations - ProExplo 2011

Geology Teaching Session
February 7, 2011
Overview

Outlook
Challenges
Scenarios
Expectations
Conclusions
The Situation Today (developed countries focus)

Declining enrollment in undergraduate geosciences

Fewer graduate-level economic geology programs

Aging demographics of current faculty and researchers

Limited field, data intensive and integrative studies or hands-on experience

Poor cross-disciplinary exposure to mining, metallurgy and economics

Historically inadequate industry support of university programs

Diminishing government support for science and engineering

All this, and a global super cycle bull market in mineral resources
The Fundamental Challenges

Huge demand, restricted supply

Escalating costs, compressed margins
Need for talent, ugly demographics
Economic development, social responsibility
My Conclusions

Conservation of natural resources

Getting more out of our existing mines
Discovery and development of the next generation

Sustainability is the key

Affordable resources to the market
Continued long-term supply
Workforce needed for the industry
Community economic development
Stewardship of the environment
Echoed By Others

The materials already recognized today store

enough metal sufficient for thousands of years

the need for resources-related geosciences

will diminish in relation to extractive
technologies, environmental and socio-political
aspects.

Peter Laznicka
(IAGOD Symposium, Moscow 2006)
So, Where Do The Geosciences Fit?

Exploration & Mine Geology

Mining Operations
Mineral Processing
Environmental Stewardship
Health & Safety
Community Development
Challenges Exploration & Mine Geology

Geology
Models, structure
Basic mapping, structure
4D Geological Frameworks
Geophysics
Airborne systems
Borehole systems
Deep penetration capabilities
Geochemistry
Analytical tools
Thermodynamic-kinetic data
Dispersion and concentration
Drilling
Miniaturization
Real-time data
Hole to hole sensing
Remote Sensing
Hyperspectral applications
Space-borne platforms
Scenario Planning

Three ways of thinking about the future

prediction (Moores Law)
preferred futures (building a bridge back from the future)
possible: scenario planning

Evolution of Scenario Planning as a Management Tool

Herman Kahn: early 1960s: "Thinking about the Unthinkable"
Pierre Wack at Shell: 1973 OPEC oil increase
Clem Sunter: early 1980s: South Africa
Peter Schwartz: 1984: World War III
Future Education Trends

Scenarios
Wishful thinking
Steady State
Stealing with pride

Attributes
Assumptions
Features
Implications
Wishful Thinking

Assumptions
A turnaround is inevitable
Market forces will ultimately prevail
Undergraduate enrolments will increase
Geosciences education will regain its
lost luster

Features
Governmental support will rebound
Industry or alumni will provide funding
Baby boomers will want to retire early
and teach

Implications
The new super cycle will last a long time
Sustaining robust education, research & jobs
Both in the industry and academia
Steady State

Assumptions
Remaining programs remain intact
Source good undergraduates from many
universities globally
Several large top-ranked economic geology
programs thrive
Supported by a number of smaller programs
with limited resources

Features
Governmental support continues to decline
Industry provides significant financial support
Classic economic geology education still valued
Top programs provide opportunities for high-potential foreign nationals
Stronger applied programs in developing regions (i.e., South America)
Significant outreach to industry and other universities
Strong demand for graduates

Implications
The new super cycle is just another cycle and will not last long enough
No critical mass in support of education, research and jobs - downturn
Flood of geoscientists return to academia for study or teaching
Thus renewing the cycle
Stealing With Pride (1 of 2)

Assumptions
Remaining economic geology programs continue to decline
Geosciences evolve into Planetary or Environmental Science Depts.
It will remain possible to recruit high quality graduates
Recruiting will be focused on who they are not what they know
We will still require a fundamental background in sciences or engineering

Features
Current programs cant keep pace with demand or type of training
Mineral resource industry will adopt/adapt oil company approach
Focus on intensive in-house education and training
Supplemented by collaborative programs like AAPGs
Employers will require 6 months initially in first year, then 2-4 weeks/yr
Training in-depth by discipline or broadly in business and management
Educators from industry and academia working together
Stealing With Pride (2 of 2)

Implications
Industry will provide for itself
Training and education to fit needs of the cycle
Will strengthen undergraduate programs in geosciences
Will strengthen graduate programs, but not necessarily econ geol
Does not rely on variable and cyclical support
Expectations of Graduates

Strong background in basic sciences & math,

Including geology

Good interpersonal and teaming skills

Broad background and interests

Propensity for critical thinking

Ability to integrate, interpret and predict outcomes

Using broad multi-disciplinary datasets

Intelligence, enthusiasm, passion for DISCOVERY

Track record of making a positive impact in one or more areas

Expectations of Educators

Robust academic programs

Quality fundamental education
Solid basis in understanding physics, math, chemistry, geology

Training in the geosciences

But not necessarily exposure to mineral deposits

Focus
Broad exposure rather than narrow specialization

Field & data based rather than theoretical or lab based

Team-based rather than individual efforts

Conclusions

Unlikely that any of these scenarios is right, but:

Inevitable evolution towards Stealing with Pride

Driven by further consolidation in next cycle

Majors turn into Super Majors
Ability to invest in full value chain in education & training

Contracted Mid-tier sector & cyclical Junior sector

Return of geoscientists to majors or back to grad school

Replenishment of retiring faculty