A Paradigm Shift in

Structural Life Prognosis

…recapturing USAF aircraft availability, performance and supportability

Col Rob Fredell, Ph.D.

Military Assistant to the Chief Scientist of the Air Force

Presented to AFOSR Workshop on Prognosis

19 February 2008

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 Overview

 Aging aircraft in perspective

 Carefree Structures

 High-Velocity Maintenance

 Prognosis Role as Integrator

 Summary

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 Aging Aircraft in Perspective

“I don’t want to have to write a letter…Your son or daughter is dead because the
wing fell off on takeoff. We knew it was going to fall off, we just didn’t know
when.”
- General Ron Keys, COMACC, as quoted in USA Today, 8 May 2007

“The US Air Force has grounded its entire fleet of 676 F-15 fighter jets after a jet
crashed on a training mission in Missouri last week.”
- BBC on-line, 6 November 2007

"It's kinda like taking your…1970 Chevrolet and tearing it down, repairing
anything you find wrong with it--extending the life of the car.”

- Keith Gilstrap, Warner Robins ALC, as quoted in the Aim Points, 12 Feb 2008

“"We're trying to catch up with 20 years of neglect.”

- Loren Thompson, the Lexington Institute, in the Dayton Daily News, 11 Feb 2008

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 Top 10 Maintenance Drivers (MMH), Total AF
Millions

3.5
% of Total FY05
WUC WUC Description
Finding, fixing cracks and MMH Hrs
03 LOOK PH OF SCH INSP 14%
3.0 corrosion: trending upward 11 AIRFRAME 12%
04 SPECIAL INSPECTIONS 11%
13 LANDING GEAR 8%
46 FUEL SYSTEM 5%
Maintenance Man Hours (MMH)

14 FLIGHT CONTROLS 5%
2.5 74 FIE CONTROL 4%
23 POWER PLANT 4%
Lack of investment in structures 76
12
TAC ELEC WRFRE SYS
CKPT & FUSE COMPTS
3%
3%

2.0 sustainment costing USAF… Total of Top 10 = 68%

MMH

Scheduled inspections

1.5 ..while continued investment in

Special inspections

2001
propulsion paying big dividends 2002
Airframe repair

2003
1.0
Landing gear

2004
Fuel systems 2005

Propulsion
0.5

0.0
03 11 04 13 46 14 74 23 76 12
Maintenance
WUC Category
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 Missouri Air National Guard Mishap
2 Nov 2007

• Aircraft broke up in flight

• Pilot ejected with injuries
• Forward fuselage separated from acft

Separation
occurred here

• Cause: Fatigue of “fatigue

proof” upper cockpit
Prognosis lesson learned: make sure you longeron
look in thefrom mfgplace!
right defect
• 700+ aircraft grounded for
detailed inspections
• 162 aircraft remain
grounded as of 11 Feb 08
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 C-130 Structural Health Assessment

 Center Wing Box fatigue, corrosion limiting life of E, H fleets

 Many aircraft at or past upper limit for unrestricted use
 Warner Robins ALC executing 3-phase program to renew H CWB
 3-year program to redesign wing splice fitting
 Sole source purchase of conventional replacement CWBs and production data
 Competitive purchase of 100s more replacement CWBs
 Heavier Extended Service Life (ESL) wing for all new J models?

 J models currently produced with similar wing as E, H replacements

 More powerful engines, higher TOGW
 Higher usage and severity factors mean similar cracking problems in ~20 years
 ESL wing costs 1,000 lbs of added structure; reduces aircraft performance

 Impact on availability
 Reduced availability and increased support costs
 Affects hundreds of aircraft supporting Air Mobility Command, AF Special
Operations, US Coast Guard, US Navy, and many foreign partners
6
 SecAF charge: break this cycle
 SecAF goal: long-life structures and lower life cycle costs
 Real solutions to fatigue cracking & corrosion, not just replacement
 Reduction of inspection burden and improved fleet availability
 Repeatable, consistent way to decide when to retire aircraft

 “Care-free” structures concept offers opportunity

 Truly optimized structures not min weight, but optimized for min life cycle cost
 Cuts structural inspection of wing by 75 - 90% and recaptures weight lost to beef-ups
 Retains current inspection and repair processes at lower life cycle costs

 High Velocity Maintenance promises a “depot revolution”

 Enhanced aircraft condition awareness prior to depot cycle
 Better planning for more focused, shorter cycle times
 No surprises…No wasted motion…No waiting

 Effective State Awareness crucial to accomplishing all 3

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 Overview

 Aging aircraft in perspective

 Carefree Structures

 High-Velocity Maintenance

 Prognosis Role as Integrator

 Summary

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 Hybrid “Care-Free Structures”
Product of Dutch/German/US research

 Follows on Fiber Metal Laminates (TU Delft NL, 1980s)

 Key features: Durability, damage tolerance, long

inspection intervals, ease of repair, corrosion- and
impact-resistant structures

 Excellent Service History:

 4 AC-130 flaps flown (early 1990s)
 40 C-17 aft cargo doors in service (1995-present)
 Airbus A380 upper fuselage in service (2008)

 Care-Free Concept not limited to FMLs

 Put the Right Material in the Right Place!

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 Alcoa Hybrid Wing Panel Tests (2006)
Ultra-Long Life Under Severe Conditions
Transport Wing Fatigue Spectrum, saw cut with severed stringer
Baseline: mean flt = 12 ksi, smax = 27.6 ksi, sground = - 6 ksi; RH > 90%

175
B777 wing Airbus 380 wing
@ Baseline Stress @ Baseline Stress
Bucci, et al, ASIP 2006
150 Bolt Ctr Line
Half Crack Length, a [mm]

Extruded Al Stringer

Fiber Metal
Laminate
125
Al Sheets

100
Early Hybrid Concept
@ + 25% Stress
75
Evolved Hybrid
@ +25% Stress
50
No external crack growth Skin side

25 Skin side Stringer side

Desired “natural” fatigue
0
0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 Flights

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 Damage Tolerance Approach
Conventional Aluminum Structures

Current Practice: Inspect for Structural Safety

repairs
Ultimate
Residual
Strength Initial Insp. Limit
2nd Insp. Repeat Inspections more frequent
= 1/2 life = 1/4 life as multiple cracks occur
1 life Life extension
Today's Metallic
As damage-tolerant aircraft age past original design life, inspection burden grows…
… and risk of inspection-induced damage increases
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 Safety through inspection?

 Example: bolt hole eddy

current inspection of a
fuel tank structures
 Highly skilled technician
 Hand-held eddy current
probe

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 Safety through inspection? Difficult

 Example: bolt hole eddy

current inspection of a
fuel tank structures
 Highly skilled technician
 Hand-held eddy current
probe,
mirror,
flashlight,
technical data, and
NDI standards

 A good NDI technician is

hard to find!
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 Why is inspection so difficult?

 Now I think we’re

prepared for the
inspector to enter
the wing through
this spacious
access hole….

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 Safety through inspection

…rely on him to be perfect, every single time.

Compliments of David Campbell
Oklahoma City ALC NDI Program Mgr
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 Benefits of the Care-free design
after Hinrichsen, Alcoa

 Longer inspection intervals

 Much longer acrit, easier to find
Residual
Strength
 Safety, economy and availability
 May make enhanced state awareness easier
"Care-free"
Economic Life
"Care-free"
Damage Tolerant 1st inspection
Economic Life

Ultimate
Load
Onset of widespread
Inspect & Repair fatigue damage
Limit Load
Fail-safe req.
Life Extension

Flight Cycles
0 1X 2X 3X 4X 5X 6X
1 DSG 2 DSG Current Practice: Damage Tolerance

1 DSG Proposed Care-free 2 DSG

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 Opportunity: Care-Free Tech Demo?
AF-managed OEM effort

 Program: Develop care-free form-fit replacement problem wing structure

 Extend life while improving availability
 Eliminate fatigue and corrosion, reduce inspections, cut cost
 Fly proof of concept with enhanced state awareness / IVSHM system?

 Key Performance Parameters

 Triple fatigue life of current wing
 Eliminate PDM and all wing structural inspections in double current lifetime
 Visual inspections for life (no critical flaw size small enough to require NDI)
 Weight neutral with SOA structures

 Attempt to prove maturity of prognostics in a demanding aircraft environment?

 Notional Schedule:
 By 18 months – Design, develop test plan, build 1st article
 By 33 months – First lifetime of fatigue testing while transitioning to production
 By 33 months – Install and flight test 2nd article
 By 48 months – First production article in new and retrofit aircraft

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 Overview

 Aging aircraft in perspective

 Carefree Structures

 High-Velocity Maintenance

 Prognosis Role as Integrator

 Summary

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 High-Velocity Maintenance
ALC initiative to increase aircraft availability

 Reduce impact of sched maintenance on fleet availability

C-130 PDM = $3.5M ea, 95/yr, 22K Hrs, 160 Days
F-15 PDM = ~$3.75M ea, 97/yr
C-5 PDM = $16.3M ea, 18/yr
1000 “To Be”  Aircraft condition not well known at induction
State
Mx Velocity (hrs/day)
 Raise Efficiency of Depot Maintenance Processes
 Low man-hour “burn rate” compared to industry
• Airlines: 500-800 man-hours/day
• Depot: 145-220 hours/day
 Field and Depot not synchronized
• Function as two independent systems
• Little communication

• Result: Long lead times

• High opportunity costs = larger than needed fleets
Additional Availability

“Current” State

0 After Dement & Keene

ISO HSC ISO PDM ISO
Maintenance Cycle
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 HVM Vision
Increase aircraft availability using common sense tools to
Establish a synchronized, integrated, end-to-end process
Maintenance must not impact mission requirements.

Aircraft
Availability
AAIP MSG-3
HVM
LCSE Expands HVM to be RCM
“scalable and transportable”
PLM CBM+
GLSC HVM for PDM/ISO
Integrity
CAM WR-ALC C-130 Prototype Programs
Optimizes the PDM process (the “how”)
ECSS Includes all supporting processes
Std Work Supply Chain Ops Lifecycle Mgmt Sourcing Tech Development

No Surprises…No Wasted Motion…No Waiting

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 HVM Attributes
from Warner Robins ALC

Current State Future State

 Limited Knowledge of A/C Condition
• Two Mx systems; creates knowledge barriers
 5+ Year PDM cycle (C-130)
• Damage accumulates, so “must fix now” mentality
 Job Shop Environment
• Mechanic must fetch own tools; parts; set up
 Inadequate plans – reqmts, parts, materiel, equipment
• Lacks information – complete BOM, planned work, support
 Stove-piped processes and execution
• Lack of synchronicity leads to non-compliant work arounds
 Known Aircraft/End Item Condition
• Use lead time ahead of induction
• Order Parts, Training, Infrastructure, Equipment, Data, etc.
 Mechanic-Centric Focus (Surgeon)
• Parts, tools, data, equipment pre-positioned at point of use
• Maximum use of kitting
 Expand Standard Work & Processes
 Single Maintenance Concept
 Integrated Planning, Decision-making, & Data Collection
 Equivalent to 14% more aircraft on station

Enhanced
State
Awareness

Find, then fix

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 HVM for Developmental Aircraft
Capability Spirals

Spiral 1: Spiral 2: Spiral 3: Total State Awareness

Research Vehicle Health Mgmt Total Weapon System
Supporting Key Technologies State Awareness - Right maintenance
Airframe Condition accomplished
- Fully Instrumented (IVHM) when mission
Enhanced - Onboard Prognostics/Life Prediction requirements allow
State
Awareness Net-Centric Solution w/ Supply
Base Total State Awareness
determines when MX
Standard Work Documented for All required
Airframe Condition Processes
SHMS No surprises
- On-board systems diagnostics Single Maintenance Concept
Capability

- Corrosion sensors Low cost per flying hr

Airframe Condition
- 100% flight Loads data Fully Integrated Management System
Predictive analysis
Auto data transfer & analysis - Automated Data Collection &
- RCM, MSG-3 Distribution
- Dets assess condition
Integrated Supply Chain - Anticipatory Spares Ordering
Management - Automated POM generation of $$

Standard Work Documented for

Enhanced State Awareness
Integrated System
- Structural Integrity Prognosis
System
- Active Autonomous ISO and PDM Integrated
Dialogue with Depot
Standard Work for ISO/PDM Integrated Management System
Now - Integrated Data from all systems
- Plans/Schedules

Integrated Requirements and Funding Process

Time
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 Overview

 Aging aircraft in perspective

 Carefree Structures

 High-Velocity Maintenance

 Prognosis Role as Integrator

 Summary

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 Prognosis Role in Community Integration

 How can material and structural state awareness be achieved?

Desired state Damaged state Failure

After K Jata, Sept 2007

 What is the role of an informed maintenance community in

developing the prognosis concept?

 Can total vehicle state awareness be

achieved at an affordable cost?

 Can leadership be convinced that

prognosis is a better solution?

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 Prognosis as Integrator

Prediction &
Prognosis

Sensing for State

Awareness
Force
Management

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 Prognosis as Integrator

Prognosis
Prognosis Drivers:

 Data
 Physics ASIP-SA
 Cost Aircraft Structural
 Availability Integrity Program
 Capability in the age of
 Safety state awareness
 Tribal Customs

Care-Free Structures

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 Summary

 High-Velocity Maintenance Carefree structures concepts maturing

 Prognosis community must integrate the “cultures” of the various “tribes”

crucial to achieving USAF relevance

 Possible collaboration on proposed Tech Demo will drive R&D to solve

most difficult aging aircraft problems

 Early transition to Tech Demo wing would challenge integrators to focus

on the art of the possible.

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