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DEMAND
Dr Monika Jain
OPEC - Introduction
About OPEC - Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries, established in Bagdad, Iraq in 1960. OPEC as a
cartel, manipulate supply of oil in the market, in hopes of keeping prices, and profits,
high.
Oil is the main marketable commodity and foreign exchange earner. Thus, for these
countries, oil is the vital key to development – economic, social and political. Their oil
revenues are used not only to expand their economic and industrial base, but also to
provide their people with jobs, education, health care and a decent standard of living
Together, the 12 member-nations control nearly 80% of the world’s oil reserves, and
44% of the world’s daily production—a powerful force used to manipulate oil prices
around the world.
Why did OPEC fail to keep the price of oil high?
• This OPEC episode of the 1970s and 1980s shows how supply and
demand can behave differently in the short run and in the long run.
• In the short run, both the supply and demand for oil are relatively
inelastic.
• Supply is inelastic because the quantity of known oil reserves and
the capacity for oil extraction cannot be changed quickly.
• demand is inelastic because buying habits do not respond
immediately to changes in price.
A Reduction in Supply in
the World Market for Oil
(a) The Oil Market in the Short Run (b) The Oil Market in the Long Run
1. In the short run, when supply 1. In the long run, when supply
and demand are inelastic, a and demand are elastic, a shift
shift in supply. . . Price in supply. . .
Price
S2 2. … leads
S1 to a small S2 S1
P2 increase in
price
2. … leads to
P2
P1 a large
P1
increase in
price
Demand Demand
0 Quantity 0 Quantity
.
The Oil Market in the LongRun
• Over long periods of time producers of oil outside OPEC
respond to high prices by increasing oil exploration and by
building new extraction capacity.
• Consumers respond with greater conversation for instance by
replacing old inefficient cars with newer efficient ones.
• In the long run the shift in the supply curve from S1 to S2
causes a much smaller increase in the price.
• This analysis shows why OPEC succeeded in
maintaining a high price of oil only in the short run.
• When OPEC countries agreed to reduce their
production of oil, they shifted the supply curve to the
left.
• Even though each OPEC member sold les oil, the price
rose by so much in the short run that OPEC incomes
rose.
• By contrast in the long run when supply and
demand are more elastic, the same reduction
in supply, measured by the horizontal shift in
the supply curve, caused a smaller increase in
the price. Thus, OPEC’s coordinated reduction
in supply proved less profitable in the long
run.
Oil prices Today
• Why has the price of oil been dropping so fast? Why now?
• It boils down to the simple economics of supply and demand.
United States domestic production has nearly doubled over the last six
years, pushing out oil imports.
• Saudi, Nigerian and Algerian oil that once was sold in the United States is
suddenly competing for Asian markets, and the producers are forced to drop
prices.
• Canadian and Iraqi oil production and exports are rising year after year. Even
the Russians, with all their economic problems, manage to keep pumping.
On the demand side, the economies of Europe and developing countries are
weakening and vehicles are becoming more energy-efficient. So demand for
fuel is lagging a bit.
Elasticity . . .
• … allows us to analyze supply and demand
with greater precision.
$4 Demand
2. At exactly $4,
consumers will
buy any quantity.
1. An $5
increase
in price... 4
100 Quantity
2. ...leaves the quantity demanded unchanged.
Unit Elastic Demand
- Elasticity equals 1
Price
1. A 25% $5
increase
in price... 4
Demand
75 100 Quantity
2. ...leads to a 25% decrease in quantity.
Elastic Demand
- Elasticity is greater than 1
Price
1. A 25% $5
increase
in price... 4
Demand
50 100 Quantity
2. ...leads to a 50% decrease in quantity.
Inelastic Demand
- Elasticity is less than 1
Price
1. A 25% $5
increase
in price... 4
Demand
90 100 Quantity
2. ...leads to a 10% decrease in quantity.
Measurement Of Price Elasticity Of
Demand
There are main methods like
1. Percentage method or proportionate
method
2. Total outlay method or total revenue
method
3. Geometric method or point method
4. Arc elasticity of demand
1 Percentage method or proportionate method
Price
Proportionate change in demand for x
elasticity of
=
demand Proportionate change in Price for x
OR
qx px
_____ _____
/
Qx Px
Here,
qx = change in the quantity of x demanded
Px = original price of x
Computing the Price Elasticity of Demand
P e rc e n ta g e c h a n g e in q u a n tity d e m a n d e d
P ric e e la s tic ity o f d e m a n d =
P e rc e n ta g e c h a n g e in p ric e
y d
e=
8
b
e>1
c e=1
e<1 d
e=0
0 a x
Arc elasticity of demand
• It is the use of middle points between old and
new figures in the case of both price and
quantity. This method is known as arc
elasticity method
• We can measure it with formula as given
Arc elasticity of demand
Price elasticity of ∆Q ∆P
demand = /
Q1+Q2 P1+P2
WHERE,
Q1 = original quantity demanded
Q2 = new quantity demanded
p1 = original price
p1 = new price
The Midpoint Method: A Better Way to
Calculate Percentage Changes and Elasticities
• Example: If the price of an ice cream cone
increases from $2.00 to $2.20 and the amount
you buy falls from 10 to 8 cones, then your
elasticity of demand, using the midpoint
formula, would be calculated as:
(1 0 8 )
(1 0 8 ) / 2 22%
2 .3 2
( 2 .2 0 2 .0 0 ) 9 .5 %
( 2 .0 0 2 .2 0 ) / 2
Practical Importance of the
Concept of Price Elasticity Of
Demand
Practical Importance of the Concept of
Price Elasticity Of Demand
• The concept is helpful in taking Pricing
Decisions by Business Firms
• Importance of the concept in formatting Tax
Policy of the government
• Uses in Economic Policy regarding Price
regulation,esp of farm products.
• Explanation of Paradox of plenty
• Use in international Trade
(7) Income Elasticity Of Demand
Income Elasticity of Demand
P e rc e n ta g e c h a n g e
in q u a n tity d e m a n d e d
In c o m e e la s tic ity o f d e m a n d =
P e rc e n ta g e c h a n g e
in in c o m e
Types Of Income Elasticity Of Demand
P
A
D
Income
B S
O Quantity Demanded X
Negative Income elasticity of demand
Income
Total Revenue
B S
O X
D
Quantity Demanded
Income Elasticity
• Types of Goods
– Normal Goods
– Inferior Goods
• Higher income raises the quantity demanded
for normal goods but lowers the quantity
demanded for inferior goods.
Measurement Of Income Elasticity Of
Demand
∆qx ∆p y
Cross Elasticity of Demand = x
Qx Py