Session 6

Causal Research Design:

Theory
&
Experimentation
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Two way’s to make use of LOGIC to

find “truth”!!!
 There are two kinds of logic to derive ‘truth’:
 one, is INDUCTIVE; and another is DEDUCTIVE.

 INDUCTIVE: these methods consists of studying many

individual cases in order to formulate a generalised
conclusion.( in research we study a sample and then we use the
results to comment about the population)
 In it, the “truth” is supposed to held only in
probabilistic sense.
 The conclusions obtained are not very strong
conclusions.
 In it, we move from specific cases to generalisation.
 In it, truth is obtain through empirical findings.
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DEDUCTIVE LOGIC...
 Deductive Logic consists of methods of
reasoning from a general rule regarded as an
accepted fact to a specific conclusion.
 The conclusions obtained under this method
are more STRONG in their assertion.
 It does not make use of any empirical data to
support the conclusion.
 It is a reasoning from general to specific.
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 Therefore in research we will always say

that we are “TESTING CAUSAL
HYPOTHESES”
 While no one can ever be certain that
variable A causes variable B to occur, one
can gather some evidence that increases
the belief that A leads to B
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POSSIBLE CAUSES OF ATTRITION

 C1 Job dissatisfaction
 C2 Better opportunity
 C3 Absence of employee empowerment
 C4 Lack of career opportunities
 C5 Attrition leads to further attrition
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Causal Research/Experiments

 In causal research, the emphasis is on specific hypotheses

about the effects of changes of one variable on another
variable
 Deals with cause-effect relationship
 Involves experiment where an independent
variable is changed or manipulated to see
how it affects a dependent variable by
controlling the effects of extraneous
variables

6
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Concepts
 VARIABLE – something that varies, it is not
only something that is measured but also
something that be manipulated and
controlled
 Dichotomous variables – nominal
variables, have only two values, they are
either/or.
 For eg, gender – male/female, yes/no,
employed/unemployed
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EXAMPLE – Dichotomous Questions

 … closed ended questions that ask the
respondents to choose between two answers.
Such as -

Do you think that this year inflation is going to be more
than that of the last year?
 YES
 NO
 The UPA Government has taken serious steps to improve
Indo-Pak relations.
 AGREE
 DISAGREE

According to your opinion, the growth rate in GDP this
fiscal is going to be
 GREATER THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR
 LOWER THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR
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 Discrete variables –known as qualitative,

categorical, ordinal variables, have more than two
levels of measurement.
 For eg, congress, BJP, SP, Janta Dal
 Can take only integral values
 Eg, no. of children in a household –
 1
 2
 3
 4
 5 or above
 There can not be 2.2 children, for that we have
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 Continuous variables – known as quantitative,

here the scale can be continuous i,e values like
1.1, 2.34 etc.
 Income, height, temperature, age, time
 Values can be measured on a continuous scale
 Response time to a brand recall
 could be
 1.5 sec
 2.5 sec, 2.7 sec, 4.2 sec etc.
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Experiments

• Independent variables: those over which the researcher has control and wishes to manipulate

• Dependent variables: those over which the researcher has little to no direct control, but has a strong interest in testing

• Extraneous variables: those that may effect a dependent variable but are not independent variables
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Definitions and Concepts

 Independent variables are variables
or alternatives that are manipulated (i.e.
the levels of these variables are changed
by the researcher) and whose effects are
measured and compared, e.g., price
levels, package size, ad copy, price
 These variables are also called as
treatments
 A variable which has been selected as a
possible influence on variations in the
dependent variable
 A “cause” in a cause-effect relationship
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Definitions and Concepts

 Dependent variables are the
variables which measure the effect of
the independent variables on the test
units, e.g., sales, profits, and market
shares
 Dependent variable
 A variable thought to be influenced by

other variables
 The “effect” in a cause-effect relationship
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Definitions and Concepts

 Extraneous variables are all variables other than the
independent variables that affect the response of the test
units, e.g., store size, store location, and competitor
efforts
 These variables can confound the dependent measures in
a way that weakens or invalidates the results of the
experiment
 Variables that may have some affects upon a

dependent variable but yet are not independent

variables
Held constant during the course of observation or
analysis
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 Test units are individuals,

organizations, or other entities whose
response to the independent variables
or treatments is being examined, e.g.,
consumers or stores.
 Test units may include consumers,
stores or geographic areas.
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Research Design/
Causal Research
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Practical example
 a leading tri-channel specialty retailer
was looking for a way to draw more
shoppers into their stores
 Indiana University students conducted
an in-store advertising experiment using
electronic window posters (images
displayed on plasma screens) on 3
selected stores
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(Cont’d)

 RESULTS
 The number of passersby who entered the
control stores went up 7 percent
 Sales soared 56 percent compared to the
weeks before the installation of digital
windows
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Advertising Experiment

 Will replacing commercial A with commercial

B lead to a marked increase in consumer
preference for a company’s brand?

 IV – replacement of ad
 DV – increase in consumer preference
 Test units - consumers
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Pricing Experiment
 Can a company improve the profitability
of its fashion clothing line by increasing
its price by 10 percent?
 IV –
 DV –
 Test units -
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Sales Productivity Experiment

 Will an increase in the average number
of sales calls per customer from six to
eight per year significantly improve
sales?

 IV –
 DV –
 Test units -
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Shelf Space Experiment

 Will decreasing the shelf space
allocated to brand X detergent by 25
percent significantly lower its sales?

 IV –
 DV –
 Test units -
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Direct Mail Experiment

 Will it be worthwhile to mail last year's
donors an attractive (but expensive)
brochure describing the company’s
activities and soliciting higher
contributions for this year?

 IV –
 DV –
 Test units -
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Experiment
 An experiment is a procedure in which a
company manipulates one (or sometimes
more than one) independent or cause
variable and collects data on the
dependent or effect variable while
controlling for other variables that may
influence the dependent variable
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Experimental Design
An experimental design is a set of
procedures specifying

 the test units and how these units are to

be divided into homogeneous subsamples,
 what independent variables or treatments
are to be manipulated,
 what dependent variables are to be
measured, and
 how the extraneous variables are to be
controlled.
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Causal research model

Independent Dependent
H1
Variable 1 Variable 1

H2
Independent H4
Variable 2
H3

Independent Dependent
Variable 3 H5 Variable 2

04/04/03 Research design -- experiment 26

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Comprehensive example
 Taking coupons at face value
 Likelihood of coupon redemption and brand
usage
 Group 1 – 15% discount
 Group 2 – 50% discount
 IV / treatment groups – value of coupon will be
manipulated
 DV- likelihood of redemption
 Test units - individual shoppers
 EV- Brand usage without coupons