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Tərtib edən: Osmanov Elçin

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Osmanov Elçin
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Subject : Marine Astronomy

Mövzu 11 Basic information from the theory of the RMS

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Osmanov Elçin 2
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Plan

- Systematic errors.
- Random errors
- The concept of root-mean-square error (RMS)

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Systematic errors.

Systematic errors. Systematic errors are those whose nature and origin can be
ascertained and whose effect on measurement results can be eliminated by the
introduction of corrections or other special measures.
If the magnitudes and signs of systematic errors remain constant
at each successive observation they are called recurring errors
Systematic errors are caused both by external influences and by instrument errors. The
main reasons for the appearance of systematic error in the surveyed altitude are errors in
the accepted tabular value of the inclination of the horizon d and in the instrumental
correction of the sextant s.

It is generally accepted that the value of the systematic error Δ in corrected heights is
between 1 and 3', sometimes reaching 7-8' in polar seas. If a tiltmeter was used in
the observations and the sextant has been thoroughly checked, the systematic error
can be accepted as 0.5' on average

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Random errors

Random errors are those caused by the combined action of multiple and
contradictory causes affecting the measurement results.
It is known from probability theory that if a large series of equal measurements
(performed with equal conditions: by the same observer, the same instrument, the
same method of measurement, the same external factors) of an unvarying quantity
are made, then the resulting random errors will obey certain regularities:
- in a given series of measurements the numerical values of random errors cannot
exceed a certain limit;
- in a large series of measurements small random errors are more frequent than
large random errors
- in a large series of measurements, random errors having equal absolute value but
opposite sign occur equally often.
From the third property, it can be deduced that the arithmetic mean of all measurements
of a given quantity will tend towards the true value if the number of measurements is
large (theoretically infinitely large).

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The concept of root-mean-square error (RMS)

Since it is not possible to obtain an absolute value for the random error in each
measurement, an approximate value called the mean square error m is used to assess
the accuracy of a single measurement of a given set of observations. m.

where Δ1 is the difference between each individual measurement a, and the arithmetic
mean of all measurements a sr;
N is the number of measurements.

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The tripled value of the mean square error is called the limiting error, mpred=Zm. It is
stated that the probability of an error larger than the limit is only 0.3 %. Therefore, all
measurements with uncertainties greater than the limit are considered to be outliers and
are discarded.

Thus, as the number of measurements N increases, the error of the

arithmetic mean mcp decreases.

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In practice, the accuracy is estimated on the basis of previous calculations t made

under different sailing conditions (visibility conditions, vessel pitch, etc.). This
estimate of the accuracy of the measurement, based on the experience of the
navigator, is called a priori.

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