Steps in Research :

1. objectivity
2. Problem formulation
3. Literature study
4. Research design
5. Formulation of Hypothesis
6. Sampling
7. Data collection
8. Processing and analysis of data
9. Interpretation and recommendation
10. Report writing
 Formulation of Hypothesis
 Hypotheses is an imaginary, verifiable statement which is
a possible answer to the research question.
 It is a tentative proposition formulated for empirical
testing.
 It is tentative because its veracity can be tested only
after it has been tested empirically
 They are useful and they guide the research process in
the particular direction
 In exploratory and Descriptive studies hypotheses may
not be required but it is essential in all analytical and
experimental studies
Types of Hypotheses
With reference to their function:
 Descriptive and Relational hypotheses

With ref. to working

 Null hypotheses, working hypotheses

and Statistical hypotheses

Level of abstraction:
 Common sense Hypotheses,

 Complex Hypotheses and

 Analytical Hypotheses
 Six Thinking Hats
 The de Bono Hats system (also known as "Six Hats" or
"Six Thinking Hats") is a thinking tool for group discussion
and individual thinking. Combined with the idea of parallel
thinking which is associated with it, it provides a means
for groups to think together more effectively, and a
means to plan thinking processes in a detailed and
cohesive way. The method is attributed to Dr. Edward de
Bono and is the subject of his book, Six Thinking Hats.
 The method is finding some use in the UK innovation
sector, is offered by some facilitation companies and has
been trialed within the UK civil service.
 Six distinct states are identified and assigned a
color:
 Information: (White) - considering purely what information is
available, what are the facts?
 Emotions (Red) - instinctive gut reaction or statements of
emotional feeling (but not any justification)
 Bad points judgment (Black) - logic applied to identifying flaws
or barriers, seeking mismatch
 Good points judgment (Yellow) - logic applied to identifying
benefits, seeking harmony
 Creativity (Green) - statements of provocation and
investigation, seeing where a thought goes
 Thinking (Blue) - thinking about thinking
Data Collection
 Data are facts, figures and other
relevant materials, past and present
serving as basis for study and
analysis.
 Types of sources of data
1. Primary data
2. Secondary Data
1. Primary data are those which are
collected afresh and for the first time
and thus happens to be original in
character
2. Secondary data are those which have
already been collected by someone
else and which have already been
passed through statistical process.
Primary data

1. Primary data Primary data are those

which are collected afresh, for the first
time and thus happens to be original
in character.
2. First formal appearance of results in
the print or electronic literature.
Secondary data

1. Secondary data are those which have

already been collected by someone else
and which have already been passed
through statistical process.
2. Secondary sources are works that
describe, interpret, analyse primary data
3. Comments and discussion of the
evidence provided by primary sources
Methods of collecting Primary data.
 In many cases the secondary data are
inappropriate, inadequate or obsolete,
primary data have to be gathered.
 Primary data are directly collected by the
researcher from their original source
 Method is different from a tool
 One or more methods can be chosen
 No method is universal but has its own
uniqueness
1. Observation
2. Interviewing
3. Mail survey
4. Experimentation
5. Simulation
6. Projective technique
 Observation:
 Observation is defined as a systematic
viewing of a specific phenomenon in its
proper setting for the specific purpose of
gathering data for a particular study.
 Observation includes both seeing and
hearing.
 The main body of knowledge has been
developed by observing the nature
Observation

Participant
observation
Researcher’s
Role
Non- participant
observation

Mode of Direct
Observation observation

Indirect
observation

Controlled
System
observation
Adopted

Un-controlled
observation
Interviewing
 One of the prominent method of data collection
 People are generally more willing to talk than to write
 It is two way systematic conversation between an
investigator and an informant initiated for obtaining
information relevant to a specific study.
 It is not only conversation, but also learning from the
respondent's gestures, expressions, pauses and
environment
 It is carried out in a structured schedule
 It calls for interviewing skills
 Interviewing can be used as a main
method or a supplementary method
 It is the only method for gathering
information from illiterate and
uneducated method.
 It can be used for collecting personal and
intimate information relating to a person’s
opinions, attitudes, values, future
intentions etc.
Questionnaire
 A questionnaire is a series of questions asked to
individuals to obtain statistically useful information about
a given topic.
 When properly constructed and responsibly
administered, questionnaires become a vital instrument
 Questionnaires are frequently used in quantitative
research.
 They are a valuable method of collecting a wide range of
information from a large number of individuals, often
referred to as respondents. Good questionnaire
construction is critical to the success of a survey.
 Types of questions
1. Contingency questions - A question that is
answered only if the respondent gives a particular
response to a previous question. This avoids asking
questions of people that do not apply to them
2. Matrix questions - Identical response categories are
assigned to multiple questions.
3. Closed ended questions - Respondents’ answers are
limited to a fixed set of responses. Most scales are
closed ended. Other types of closed ended questions
include:
1. Yes/no questions - The respondent answers with a “yes” or a
“no”.
2. Multiple choice - The respondent has several option from
which to choose.
3. Scaled questions - Responses are graded on a continuum
(example : rate the appearance of the product on a scale from 1
to 10, with 10 being the most preferred appearance). Examples
of types of scales include the Likert scale, semantic differential
scale, etc
 Open ended questions - No options or predefined
categories are suggested. The respondent supplies their own
answer without being constrained by a fixed set of possible
responses. Examples of types of open ended questions
include:
1. Completely unstructured - For example, “What is your
opinion of questionnaires?”
2. Word association - Words are presented and the
respondent mentions the first word that comes to mind.
3. Sentence completion - Respondents complete an
incomplete sentence. For example, “The most important
consideration in my decision to buy a new house is . . .”
4. Story completion - Respondents complete an incomplete
story.
5. Picture completion - Respondents fill in an empty
conversation.
6. Thematic apperception test - Respondents explain a
picture or make up a story about what they think is happening
in the picture
 Question sequence
1. Questions should flow logically from one to the next.
2. The researcher must ensure that the answer to a
question is not influenced by previous questions.
3. Questions should flow from the more general to the
more specific.
4. Questions should flow from the least sensitive to the
most sensitive.
5. Questions should flow from factual and behavioral
questions to attitudinal and opinion questions.
6. Questions should flow from unaided to aided questions.
7. The sandwich theory - three stage theory : Initial
questions should be screening and rapport questions.
Then in the second stage you ask all the product
specific questions. In the last stage you ask
demographic questions
 Research Design
 - Data collection
 Observational research
 Ethnographic group Research
 Focus group Research
 Survey research
 Behavioral data
 Experimental research( cause & effect
relationships)
 - Research instrument
 Questionnaires:

Close-end
Open-end
 Mechanical instruments: like,

 Galvanometers-emotions

 Tachistoscopes flashes

 Eye cameras

 Audiometer-TV

 - Sampling plan
 Field work
 - Planning and supervision
 Data Analysis
 - Classifying raw data
 - Summarising data
 - Analytical methods to analyse and
then make an inference
 Application of research :
 - Sales and market analysis
 - Product research
 - Corporate research
 - Advertising research
Barriers to the use of MR
 A narrow conception of Marketing
Research
 Uneven caliber of Marketing researchers
 Poor framing of the problem
 Late and erroneous findings by
marketing research
 Personality and presentational
differences.
 Forecasting and
Demand
measurement
 Sales Forecasting
 Forecasting is systematic attempt to
predict the future by inference from the
known facts.
 Sales forecasting is an attempt to
determine the value of sales which can be
reasonably be expected at some future
date on a scientific basis.
 Types of sales forecast

Product Geographic
Time Period
Level Area

1. Total Sales 1. Long range 1. World

2. Industry sales 2. Medium range 2. Nation
3. Company sales 3. Short range 3. Region
4. Product line sales 4. Territory
5. Product variant sales 5. Customer
Salespersons
6. Product item sales
 Sales Forecasting

 Sales forecasting is necessary for the

other functions as follows:
1. Planning production
2. Raising finance
3. Purchase function
4. Human resources
 Hence sales forecast is the forerunner for
all other to all planning
Terms used in sales forecast
1. Market potential
2. Market forecast
3. Sales potential
4. Sales forecast
5. Sales budget
6. Sales quota
 Methods of sales forecasting

 Qualitative methods
1. Executive opinion method
2. Delphi method-Rand corporation by 1940
3. Sales force composite method
4. Test marketing method: full blown test market,
controlled test marketing, simulated test
marketing
 Quantitative Method
Quantitative methods

1. Moving average method:

Actual sales for past 3 or 6 years
Number of years
2. Exponential smoothing method:
Sales forecast for the next year=Actual sales this
year x (L) + (1-L) x (this years sales forecast)
L- smoothing constant or probability weighing
factor 0.8 – 0.2
3. Decomposition method:
The company’s previous periods sales data
is broken into four major components
Trend, cycle, seasonal and erratic
4. Naive/Ratio method: Time series
Sales forecast for next year=
Actual sales of this year x Actual sales of this year
Actual sales of last year
6. Regression analysis: Company sale is
dependent on many factors such as price,
promotional expenditure, population etc.
Statistical forecasting - SPSS used- Multiple
regression analysis is used
7. Econometric analysis : Many regression
equations are built to forecast industry sales. A
forecast is prepared by solving these equations
on computer software.
To improve forecasting accuracy:

1. Use multiple forecasting methods

2. Identify suitable method
3. Obtain a range of forecasts
4. Use computer hardware and software.
Steps in sales forecasting
As per the conference board of America report 1978, 10 steps are listed.

1. Determine the Purpose for which Forecasts are used

2. Divide the company products into homogenous groups
3. Determine the factors affecting the sales of each
product and their relative importance
4. Choose the forecasting methods
5. Gather the available data
6. Analyse the data
7. Check and recheck the deductions
8. Make assumptions regarding other factors
9. Convert deductions and assumptions into forecasts
10. Apply the forecast to company operations
 Sales Budget
 A sales budget consists of
estimates of expected volume
of sales and selling expenses.
 Sales budget is generally fixed slightly lower than
the sales forecast to avoid risk
 Selling expense budget consists of the selling
expense budget and sales department
administrative budget
 The sales budget is the key factor for the
successful performance of the sales department
 Sales Budget

Sales department
Sales volume budget Selling expense budget
Administrative budget
Purposes of
the sales budget
1. Planning: From total
corporate plan
marketing and sales
budgets are developed
considering sales goals,
sales strategy, action
plan, expense, etc.
2. Coordination:
Coordinating among
various functions
3. Control : Evaluation of
performance
Methods used for deciding sales
expenditure budget
 Sales managers are
required to decide
expenditure levels for
each item of selling
expenses.
1. Percentage of sales method
2. Executive judgment method
3. Objective and task method
 Review Situation
Sales Budget
Process
Communication

Subordinate budgets

Approval of budget

Other departments