LIFT GRADUATE PROGRAM

2022

DATA ANALYTICS CASE STUDY

SUBMITTED BY:
ARIBA WASEEM
ariba28waseem@gmail.com
PROBLEM???
• Demand Misforecasting
WAY TOWARDS SOLUTION
EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS

COLUMN: 3,
WAREHOUSE: 2 DATA TYPE:
RECORDS: 146 Warehouse,
(EW1, EW2) INT64, OBJECT
Date, Total_order
 DATA CLEANING

Sanity check of data Finding Missing Value Remove outliers, Top

Types 5% and bottom 5%
DATA PREPARATION
Feature Engineering
FORMATION OF NEW VARIABLES

Weekday: Extract weekday from the given Date

Weekend: Binary (1 for weekend, 0 for weekday)

Lag Order: Order of Previous day

Moving Average: Average of Last three day’s orders

Order on last same weekday: Order of same weekday, last week

PATTERNS AND INSIGHTS
 CORRELATION
EW1 TOTAL ORDERS CORRELATION WITH NEW VARIABLES EW2 TOTAL ORDERS CORRELATION WITH NEW VARIABLES

Lag Sales Correlation Check 62.19% Lag Sales Correlation Check 76.53%
Moving Average 3 days Correlation 84.57% Moving Average 3 days Correlation 91.58%
Weekday Correlation 0.04% Weekday Correlation -11.13%
Weekend Correlation -8.24% Weekend Correlation -8.08%
Orders on Last same weekday 48.04% Orders on Last same weekday 66.88%
 WEEKDAYS VS TOTAL ORDERS
• Both warehouses received maximum orders on Thursdays.
• Furthermore, apart from Thursdays, EW1 receive maximum orders on Tuesdays, while EW2 on Wednesdays

EW1 TOTAL ORDERS VS WEEKDAYS EW2 TOTAL ORDERS VS WEEKDAYS

 WEEKEND VS TOTAL ORDERS
• Both warehouses received maximum orders on Weekdays.

EW1 DISTRUBTUTION OF ORDERS BETWEEN WEEKEND AND WEEKDAYS EW2 DISTRUBTUTION OF ORDERS BETWEEN WEEKEND AND WEEKDAYS
LAG ORDERS VS TOTAL ORDER

TIME SERIES GRAPH OF EW1 ORDERS TIME SERIES GRAPH OF EW2 ORDERS
FORECASTING
OF ORDERS
FOR NEXT
SEVEN DAYS
FORECASTING TECHNIQUE
TECHNIQUE

01 02 03 04
Through, Forecasting To achieve high Data of both EW1 and Run Regression
functions present in accuracy, I built a EW2 was divided into Analysis on it.
Excel and Tableau the regression model. 70:30. 70% for
accuracy I were Training and 30% for
getting was quite low. Testing.
 REGRESSION RESULTS OF EW1
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.894152745
R Square 0.799509131
Adjusted R Square 0.779460045
Standard Error 112.9502572
Observations 56

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 5 2543743.309 508748.7 39.87758 2.61743E-16
Residual 50 637888.0306 12757.76
Total 55 3181631.339
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 0.23492407 51.81111802 0.004534 0.9964 -103.8307691 104.3006173 -103.8307691 104.3006173
Weekday 7.973714929 12.58696622 0.63349 0.529301 -17.30795076 33.25538062 -17.30795076 33.25538062
Weekend -105.3634892 56.44439256 -1.86668 0.067816 -218.7353882 8.008409755 -218.7353882 8.008409755
Lag Orders -0.526292618 0.135255296 -3.89111 0.000296 -0.797960875 -0.254624361 -0.797960875 -0.254624361
Moving Average of three days 1.52391335 0.157745366 9.66059 5.07E-13 1.207072458 1.840754241 1.207072458 1.840754241
Orders on Last same weekday -0.003386585 0.079682398 -0.0425 0.966269 -0.163433391 0.156660222 -0.163433391 0.156660222
 REGRESSION RESULTS OF EW2
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.922163166
R Square 0.850384905
Adjusted R Square 0.820461886
Standard Error 146.3680137
Observations 31

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 5 3044195.211 608839.0422 28.41908792 1.49181E-09
Residual 25 535589.8859 21423.59544
Total 30 3579785.097

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 41.89263949 111.0510442 0.377237691 0.709180419 -186.8212673 270.6065 -186.821 270.6065
Weekday -11.65909518 22.65206496 -0.514703415 0.611281084 -58.31189627 34.99371 -58.3119 34.99371
Weekend 63.05539427 98.70836759 0.638804955 0.528759486 -140.2382943 266.3491 -140.238 266.3491
Lag Order -0.492012059 0.199401378 -2.467445633 0.020805725 -0.902686884 -0.08134 -0.90269 -0.08134
Moving Average of Three Days 1.490363112 0.233317247 6.387710862 1.09449E-06 1.009837247 1.970889 1.009837 1.970889
Orders on Last Same Weekday 0.031875642 0.127366006 0.250268052 0.804425305 -0.230439558 0.294191 -0.23044 0.294191
 PROCEDURE
Values are
Those variables
predicted from the
whose p-value is
remaining
less than 0.05 are
variables and
insignificant.
intercept.

Error is calculated
Mean Error of the
by subtracting
model is
actual value from
calculated.
predicted value.
EW1: ACCURACY OF MODEL ON TRAIN
AND TEST
TRAINING MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR: 19.66%

TRAINING MEDIAN ABSOLUTE ERROR: 12.96%

ACCURACY: 100-19.66% = 80.34%

TEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR: 15.78%

TEST MEDIAN ABSOLUTE ERROR: 11.88%

ACCURACY: 100-15.78% = 84.22%

EW2: ACCURACY OF MODEL ON TRAIN
AND TEST
TRAINING MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR: 16.26%

TRAINING MEDIAN ABSOLUTE ERROR: 9.56%

ACCURACY: 100-19.66% = 83.74%

TEST MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR: 9.48%

TEST MEDIAN ABSOLUTE ERROR: 6.72%

ACCURACY: 100-15.78% = 90.52%

 FORECASTED VALUES
FORECASTED ORDERS OF EW1 FOR NEXT 7 DAYS FORECASTED ORDERS OF EW2 FOR NEXT 7 DAYS

date Prediction ROUND OFF ORDERS date Prediction Round off Orders
11/9/2021 428.4689171 428 11/9/2021 1682.17399 1682
11/10/2021 473.4333778 473 11/10/2021 1656.040753 1656
11/11/2021 476.4035556 476 11/11/2021 1649.047358 1649
11/12/2021 449.6468117 450 11/12/2021 1708.151943 1708
11/13/2021 369.122958 369 11/13/2021 1691.977302 1692
11/14/2021 358.5153873 359 11/14/2021 1717.788256 1718
11/15/2021 409.5777782 410 11/15/2021 1739.238588 1739
FORECASTED CHART OF EW1
 FORECASTED CHART OF EW2
EW2 FORECAST
2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02
5/2 7/2 9/2 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 1/2 3/2 5/2 7/2 9/2 1/2 2/2 4/2 6/2 8/2 0/2 2/2 4/2
1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 / / / / / 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 / / / / 1 1 1
9/ 9/ 9/ 9/ 9/ 9/ 9/ 9/ 10 10 10 10 10 10/ 10/ 10/ 10/ 10/ 10/ 10/ 10/ 10/ 10/ 10/ 11 11 11 11 11/ 11/ 11/

EW2 EW2-FOR
THANK YOU