You are on page 1of 252

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

&
BIOSTATISTICS

* Few jewels from ocean


Dr. Kusum Gaur
Professor, PSM
WHO Fellow IEC
Definition of Research

“Research is a
systematized effort
to gain new knowledge”.

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 2


Steps in Research (Holy 11)

1. Collect review of literature/Situation Analysis


2. Identify and prioritize health problems
3. Decide aims & objectives
4. Planning Methodology
5. Execution
6. Compilation, Classification & Presentation of data
7. Analysis
8. Test of Significance/Test of Hypothesis
9. Inferences
10.Report Writing
11. Dissemination of Report

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 3


Process of Concluding
8 7 6

Reporting Inferences Analysis

Data Collection
5

Steps in Research

Execution

Execution
Research Problem
Define
1

for Pretest
Collection
Data
Review of Literature Methodology
4

2 3
Planning

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 4


STEP-1

DEFINITION
OF THE
RESEARCH PROBLEM

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 5


RESEARCH PROBLEM ?

Research Problem refers to some difficulty


which a researcher experiences and
wants to obtain a solution for the same.

i.e. a question or issue to be examined.

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 6


Process of Defining Problem

Analysis of the Situation

Identify & Prioritize Problems

Select & Define Problem

Statement of
Research Objectives

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 7


CRITERIA OF SELECTION
The selection of one appropriate researchable
problem out of the identified problems requires
evaluation of certain criteria.

* Internal / Personal criteria – Researcher’s side

* External Criteria – Problem side factors

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 8


INTERNAL CRITERIA OF SELECTION

 Researcher’s Interest,

 Researcher’s Competence,

 Researcher’s own Resource:


 Human Resource
 Money
 Material
 Time

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 9


EXTERNAL CRITERIA OF SELECTION

 Researchability of the problem,


 Importance and Urgency,
 Novelty of the Problem,
 Feasibility,
 Facilities,
 Social Relevance
 Public health Importance

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 10


DEFINE RESEARCH PROBLEM
(Title of the Research Topic)

 Transforming the selected research problem into a


scientifically researchable statement.

 Problem definition or Problem statement should be


clear, precise, self-explanatory and include:-

 What
 How
 When
 Where

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 11


RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
(Objectives)
 Research Objectives are the statement of the
questions that is to be investigated with the goal of
answering the overall research problem.

 Research Objectives should be clear and achievable.

 Generally, they are written as statements, using the


word “to”
(For example, ‘to discover …’, ‘to determine …’, ‘to
establish …’, ‘to find out -----’, ‘to assess -----’etc. )

Objectives should infer in the end of the study

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 12


Hypothetical Research Question
 Problem:
PCR of Diabetes Mellitus is increasing very fast
during last five year

 Mission:
Reduce the incidence of heart disease

 Belief:
Meditation is good to reduce stress which is an
important precursor of DM

 Hypothesis
H- Meditation decreases the risk of DM
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 13
Association of Garlic consumption with
coronary Artery Diseases

Aim: To Study the association of Meditation with


Diabetes Mellitus in patients attending at Medical OPD
of SMS Hospital, Jaipur (Raj) India.

Objectives:
1. To assess and compare the proportion of DM cases in
individuals doing regular meditation and not doing
meditation.

2. To find out the risk ratio of DM in individuals not


doing meditation on doing regular meditation.
STEP-2

REVIEW
OF
LITERATURE

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 15


Review of literature

 What ?

 Why ?

 Where ?

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 16


What ?
REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Literature Review is the documentation

of a published and unpublished work

from secondary sources of data

in the areas of specific interest to the researcher.

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 17


Why ? - PURPOSE OF REVIEW
 Tofind out already investigated problems and
those that need further investigation.

 To formulate researchable hypothesis.

 To gain a background knowledge

 To identify data sources

 To learn how others structured their reports.


12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 18
Where ?
SOURCES OF LITERATURE
 Books and Journals
 Databases
Bibliographic Databases
Abstract Databases
Full-Text Databases
 Govt. and NGO Records & Reports
 Internet
 On line journals: ww.articalbase.com …….
 E. Databases – Popline, Medline …….
 Research Dissertations / Thesis

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 19


Step-3

Methodology
Methodology
Study Area : Location of study - Hospital, community etc.

Study Period: Start to end of Study (maximum period available for


study should be defined)

*Selection of Study Design

* Selection of Study Population

Pre-requisits of study: Study Tools, Terminologies, Orientation


trainings etc.

*will be taken separately

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 21


Methodology……
• Study Tools for data collection: subjects, proforma,
examination, measurements, lab investigations
• Planning
 Data collection, compilation, data entry
 Data cleaning
 Analysis plan:
• Confidentiality
• Ethical clearance: Consent from
 Institutional Review Board
 Observational units

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 22


Study Design

A study design is a specific plan or protocol


for conducting the study,
which allows the investigator
to translate the conceptual hypothesis
into an operational one.

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 23


Direction of Study

Backward Forward

Cross -sectional

Retrospective Prospective

4. Ambidirectional
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 24
Decision Tree
Intervention Done
No Yes
Observational Study Experimental Study

Comparison Group Randomization

No Yes
No Yes
Descriptive Study Analytic Study
NRCT Study RCT Study

Direction of Study

E O E O
Cohort Study E = O Case-Control Study
Cross-Sectional Study

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 25


Epidemiological Study Design
Observational Studies
 Descriptive Studies

 Analytic
Cross-Sectional
Case-Control
Cohort

Experimental / Interventional studies


 As per Control: RCT/NRCT
 As per Blinding: Single /Double Blind  
 As per Design: Simple/Cross-over
 As per Area: Field/Clinical/Lab
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 26
Descriptive Studies

• Case reports
• Case series
• Population studies

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 27


Descriptive Studies: Uses

• Hypothesis generating

• Suggesting associations

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 28


Descriptive Type of Observational Study

• Other Name Case-Series/Population


• Unit of Study Case/Individuals
• Study Question What is happening 
• Direction Of Inquiry
• Study Design
☻☻☻☻☻☻ desired information
☻☻☻☻☻☻ about cases/individuals is
collected

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 29


Case-Series …….

Advantages
• Easy to do
• Excellent at identifying unusual situation
• Good for generating hypotheses

Disadvantages
• Generally short-term
• Investigators self-select (bias!)
• no controls
09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 30
Analytical Observational Studies

• Cross-sectional

• Case-control

• Cohort

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 31


Cross-sectional Study
• Data collected at a single point in time

• Describes associations

• Prevalence
A “Snapshot”

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 32


Cross-Sectional Study

• Other Name Prevalence Study


• Unit of Study Individual
• Study Question What is happening 
• Direction of Inquiry
•  Study Design Exposed
to Factor

Not
 Exposed
Diseased to Factor

Population Exposed to
 Factor
Non-
Disease Not
Exposed to
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur Factor 33
Objectives of a Cross-Sectional
Study

To find out association

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 34


Cross-sectional Study

Sample
DefinedofPopulation
Population

Regular Not doing meditation


Meditation

Prevalence of Prevalence of
DM DM

Time Frame = Present


12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 35
Cross-sectional Study
E.G. Out of 1000 population if 100 were doing meditation regularly &
out of that only 2 were having DM. Remaining 900 were not doing
meditation at all, out of that 220 were having DM.

+ DM -

+ 2 98
Meditation

- 220 680

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 36


Cross-Sectional Study

• Strengths
– Quick
– Cheap

• Weaknesses
– Cannot establish cause-effect

09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 37


Case-Control Studies
 Start with people who have disease(Cases)

 Match them with controls that do not have


disease (Match Confounding)

 Look back and assess exposures

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 38


Controls

A control is a standard of comparison


(confounded with variability but without effect)

for

• Effects

• Variability

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 39


Case-Control Study
• Other Name Retrospective Study
• Unit of Study Cases/Control
• Study Question What has happened 
• Direction of Inquiry= F O
•  Study Design
Exposed

 Cases
Not
Exposed

Exposed

Control
Not
Exposed
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 40
Objective of a Case-Control Study

To find out association

To assess Risk Ratio

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 41


Case-Control Study

Cases
Regular Meditation
Patients with DM
No Meditation

Controls
Regular Meditation
Persons w/o DM
No Meditation

Past Present
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 42
The logic of Case-Control Studies

 Cases differ from controls only in having the


disease

 If exposure does not predispose to having the


disease, then exposure should be equally
distributed between the cases and controls.

 The extent of greater previous exposure among


the cases reflects the increased risk that
exposure confers
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 43
Case-Control Studies: Strengths

• Good for rare outcomes: cancer


• Can examine relation of exposures to disease
• Useful to generate hypothesis
• Fast
• Cheap
• Provides Odds Ratio

09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 44


Case-Control Studies: Weaknesses

• Cannot measure
– Incidence
– Prevalence
– Relative Risk

• Can only study one outcome


• High susceptibility to bias

09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 45


Cohort Study

• Begin with disease-free individuals

• Classify patients as exposed/unexposed

• Record outcomes in both groups

• Compare outcomes using relative risk

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 46


Cohort Study
• Other Name Prospective Study / Follow-up Study/Incidence Study
• Unit of Study Individual
• Study Question What is happening 
• Direction of Inquiry F O
•  Study Design Diseased

Exposed to Not Non
Factor Diseased

Cohort
Cohort Diseased
Not
Exposed to
Factor
Non-Diseased

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 47


Logic of Cohort Study

 Cohort is a group of persons sharing a


common characteristics

 Differences in the rate at which exposed and


control subjects contract a disease is due to
the differences in exposure, since others are
known and similar.

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 48


Cohort Study

 Prospective (usually)

 Controlled

 Can determine causes and incidence of


diseases as well as identify risk factors

 Generally expensive, time consuming and


difficult to carry out
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 49
Steps for Cohort Study

 Identify geographically defined group


 Identify exposed subjects and not exposed
subjects
 Follow over a specific time
 Record the fraction in each group who
developthe condition of interest
 Compare these fractions using RR, AR or OR

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 50


Objectives of a Cohort Study

 To find out association

 To assess Risk Ratio


 To find out Relative Risk

 To find out Attributed Risk

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 51


Prospective Cohort Study
DM
No Meditation
No DM

Cohort
DM
Regular
Meditation No DM

Present Future
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 52
Cohort Study: Strengths

• Can measure multiple outcomes

• Can adjust for confounding variables

• Can calculate Attributed Risk

09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 53


Cohort Study: Weaknesses

• Expensive

• Time consuming
• Cannot study rare outcomes
• Confounding variables

09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 54


Measurements of association

Cohort Study Case Control Study

•Significance Test •Significance Test


•Relative Risk •OR
•Attributable Risk
•OR

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 55


Measures of Association

Significance Test – to test significance of


difference in exposure between control and
Cases
Odds ratio - ratio of the odds of contracting
disease in given exposure
Relative Risk – Ratio between incidence
among exposed and incidence among non-
exposed
Attributed Risk – percentage of difference
between incidence among exposed and non-
exposed with incidence among exposed
RR or OR of 1 indicate no effect of exposure (equal odds)
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 56
‘Z’ Score of Exposure Rates

Cases control

Exposed a b
a x 100
Exposure Rates = in Cases (P2) Non- c d
exposed
a+c

b x 100
Exposure Rates = in Controls (P1) P2 – P1

b+d Z Score =
SEDP

P1Q 1 P2Q2
09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur
SEDP = ------------- + -------- 57
N1 N2
ad
ODD’s Ratio = Times
bc

Incidence among Exposed


RR = Times
Incidence among Non-Exposed

a/a+b a (c+d)
= =
c/c+d c (a+b)

09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 58


Attributed Risk

(Incidence among Exposed - Incidence among Non-Exposed)

AR = x 100
Incidence among Exposed
a
Incidence among Exposed= x 100
a+b
c
Incidence among Non-Exposed= x 100
c+d
09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 59
Experimental Studies

Clinical trials provide the “gold standard” of

determining the relationship between factor

and the event

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 60


Types of Experimental Study

As per Randomization:
• Randomized Control Trials (RCT)

• Concurrent Parallel Design (RCT)

• Sequential RCT Design

• RCT with External Control

• Non – Randomized Trials (NRCT)


12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 61
Types of Experimental Study….

As per Design:
• Simple

• Cross-Over Study Design

As per Study Area:


• Field Trials

• Clinical Trials

12/08/2012 • Lab. Trials Dr. Kusum Gaur 62


Quality of Experimental Study

• Randomization

• Blinding

• Control

• Cross-Over

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 63


Controls in Clinical Trials

A clinical trial is a comparative, prospective


experiment conducted in human subjects

• Historical controls are better than no


controls

• Patients can serve as own controls - This is


usually beneficial as the comparison
removes patient differences

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 64


Blinding

Good practice: factors that can affect the


evaluation of outcome should not be permitted
to influence the evaluation process

Single-blind
Patient or evaluator (either of one) is blinded as
to intervention

Double-blind design
Neither patient nor outcome evaluator knows Rx
to which patient was assigned

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 65


Randomized Control Trials (RCT)

• Before and After Comparison

• Comparison with Placebo

• Comparison Of two medicine/procedure/tests

• Comparison Of > two medicine/procedure/tests

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 66


Experimental Study
• Other Name Intervention Study
• Objective To know the effect of intervention
• Unit of Study Individual meeting entry criteria
• Study Question What is happening after intervention in
both groups 
• Direction of Inquiry I E
• Study Design 1(Intervention with Placebo)
Positive
Outcome
 
Group 1/cases Intervention
Negative
Outcome

Positive
Outcome
Group
Placebo
2/control
Negative
Outcome

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 67


Clinical Trial

R Treatment
a Outcomes
Group
n
d
Study o
Population m

i Outcomes
z Control Group
e

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 68


Intervention Study - Design 2
(Comparison of Effect of Two Interventions)

Cases
Meeting
Entry criteria

Group - 1 Group -2

Intervention -1 Intervention Intervention - 2

Positive Negative Positive


Outcome Negative
Outcome Outcome Outcome

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 69


Cross Over Design
Group -1 Cases Group-2
Meeting
Entry
criteria Intervention - 2
Intervention - 1

Positive Negative
Positive Negative Outcome
Outcome Outcome
Outcome

Group -1
Group -2 Crossover

Intervention -2
Intervention -1

Positive Negative
Positive Negative
Outcome
Outcome Outcome
Outcome

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 70


Other Types of Experimental Study

• Quincy Experimental Study

• Block Experimental Study

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 71


Quincy Experimental Study

Cases Meeting
Entry criteria

Group - 1 Group -2

Intervention Intervention No Intervention

Positive Negative Positive


Outcome Negative
Outcome Outcome Outcome

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 72


Block Experimental Study

Cases Meeting
Entry criteria

Group -3
Group - 1

Group -2

Intervention Intervention-3
Intervention -1 Intervention

Intervention-2

Positive Positive
Negative Negative
Outcome Outcome Outcome Outcome

Positive Negative
Outcome Outcome

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 73


Steps of Experimental Study
Drawing up a Protocol

Reference Population

Sample Population

Exclusions

Randomization
Experimental Group Control Group

Manipulation/Intervention

Follow - up

12/08/2012 Assessment
Dr. Kusum Gaur of Outcome 74
Strength
Ideal Study Design for established causality

Weakness
Ethical Issues
STUDY QUESTIONS AND APPROPRIATE DESIGNS

Type of Question Appropriate Study Design


Burden of illness Field Surveys
- Prevalence Cross Sectional Survey
- Incidence Longitudinal survey

Causation, Risk & Prognosis Case Control Study,


Cohort study, RCT

Treatment Efficacy Randomized Controlled study

Diagnostic Test Evaluation Randomized Controlled study

Cost Effectiveness Randomized Controlled study

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 76


Hierarchy of Epidemiological Study Design

Establish Causality RCT

Cohort

Case Control

Cross-Sectional

Case Series

Generate Hypothesis Case Report

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 77


Methodology

Study Area : Location of study - Hospital, community etc.

Study Period: Start to end of Study (maximum period available for


study should be defined)

*Selection of Study Design

* Selection of Study Population


Sample Size
Sampling Technique

Pre-requisits of study: Study Tools, Terminologies, Orientation


trainings etc.

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 78


Selection of study population

Whole Population

Sample Population

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 79


What is Sample ?

• A sample is a small representative


segment of a population

• Inferences drawn from a sample are


expected to be applicable for the source
population

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 80


Why do we need a sample?

To get inferences

applicable to universe

with minimum resources

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 81


Sample – Qualities

Sample is a part of population but it is true


representative of whole.

Qualities

Adequate size

Appropriate sampling technique

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 82


Factors on which SAMPLE SIZE depend:
• Population Factors
– Type of information available
• Type of study
– Type of Data
– Type of study design
– Type of sampling
– Type of Statistical Analysis for outcome needed
• Determined values of research by researcher
– Power
– Significance level

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 83


Power: Ability to detect right answer

Alpha Error: Chance to miss right answer


Type of Data & level of Measurements

Qualitative – Counted Facts – Nominal Data


Measured as Numbers expressed as proportions
 
Quantitative- Measured Facts - Numerical Data
Measured as quantity & expressed as Mean ± SD

*Ordinal Data – Rank Order Data


Measured as rank & expressed as Median ± Percentile

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 91


Sample size for Qualitative data
 
Z 2 PQ 4 PQ
Sample Size= ------------------- -- = ------------------
L2 L2

P= Prevalence of disease
Q = 100-P
L = allowable error
Z= 1.96 ≈ 2 for 95% CL
for descriptive/case-series type of study design

09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 92


Sample size for Quantitative data
 

Z 2 SD 2 4 SD 2
Sample Size= ------------------- -- =----------------------
L2 L2

SD= Standard Deviation


L = allowable error
Z= 1.96 ≈ 2 for 95% CL
For Descriptive Studies only

09/03/2010 Dr. Kusum Gaur 94


Finite Correction

Sample Size – Finite Population (where the


population is less than 50,000)
SS
New SS = _________________
( 1 + ( SS – 1 ))Pop
How many controls?

n
k Here n0=No. of cases &
2n0  n n = expected no. of cases

• k = 13 / (2*11 – 13) = 13 / 9 = 1.44


• kn0 = 1.44*11 ≈ 16 controls (and 11 cases)
– Same precision as 13 controls and 13 cases
Sampling Design factors of sample size

Variance of Specified Sampling


Design Effect =
Variance of Simple Random Sampling

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 97


Sampling Technique effect on Sample Size

Sampling Technique Design Effect Size Multiplier

Simple Random Sampling 1

Systemic Random Sampling 1.2

Stratified Random Sampling 0.8

Cluster Random Sampling 2

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 98


Conventionally accepted
Researcher’s Estimations

Alpha Error 0.05

Power 80%

Confidence Limit 95%

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 99


Key Concepts: Sample size
• Sampling Design - larger sample for Custer

• Desired Power – more power for larger sample

• Allowable error – smaller error for larger sample

• Heterogeneity leads to have larger sample to


cover diversities

• Nature of Analysis – Complex multivariate needs


larger sample
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 100
Steps -Sample Size Estimation
• Stage 1- * Base Sample Size Calculation (n)

• Stage 2 – Sample Size with Design Effect (d)


=n*d

• Stage 3- Contingency Addition (e.g. 5%)


SS Estimation for study population =(n*d)
+5%of n

*Use appropriate equation for sample size


calculation
http://stat.ubc.ca/~rollin/stats/ssize/
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 101
E.G. Mean 1= 5, Mean 2 = 15 & SD = 14 inputting values
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 107
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 108
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 109
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 110
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 111
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 112
SAMPLING
TECHNIQUES
SAMPLING TECHNIQUES

• PROBABILITY/RANDOM SAMPLING

• NONPROBABILITY SAMPLING

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 119


Random sampling Techniques

Aim is to give equal chance to


every observation unit to be
selected for study in sample.

(Any Observation unit


should not have Zero Probability )

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 120


* Random Sampling Techniques

Simple Random Technique

Systemic Random Technique

Stratified Random Technique

Multiphase Random Technique

Multistage Random Technique

Cluster Random Technique

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 121


Simple Random Technique

• Lottery Method

• Random Table Method

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 122


12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 123
Steps –Use of Random Table
• Stage 1- Give number to each member of population
• Stage 2 – Determine total population size (N)
• Stage 3- Determine Sample size (S)

• Stage 4 – Drop one finger on Random Table with eyes closed


• Stage 5 – Drop one finger with eyes closed on direction to be
chosen – Up/Down/Rt/Lt

• Stage 6- Determine first number within 0 to N


• Stage 7- * Determine other numbers till Sample size (S)

* Once a number is chosen do not repeat it again

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 124


Steps –Use of Random Table..
e.g. N=300, M=50

Random no. Selected no. (3 digits from 0-300)


49468
49699
14043 043
15013 013
12600
33122 122
94169 169
89916
74169 169
32007 007
www.evaluation wikiog/index/how_to_use_a_random_number_Table
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 125
Systemic Random Technique

The selection of sample follows a systematic


interval of selection
• Find serial interval
(K) = total population/sample size
• 1st observation through simple random sampling
th
among 1to K.
• Next observation = (1st +K) thObservation
• Next observation = (2nd +K) Observation
• -------------so on till No. of observations =
Sample Size

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 126


Systemic Random Technique Population
N=100 (Given) 1 21 41 61 81
2 22 42 62 82
S=20 (Estimated) 3 23 43 63 83
K=N/S =100/20 =5 4 24 44 64 84
5 25 45 65 85
1st observation between 1 to 5 6 26 46 66 86
7 27 47 67 87
though SRS e.g. 3 8 28 48 68 88
Every 5th observation from 3rd 9 29 49 69 89
10 30 50 70 90
observation will be included in 11 31 51 71 91
sample population 12 32 52 72 92
13 33 53 73 93
So, sample population will be – 3rd 14 34 54 74 94
8th 13th 18th 23rd 28th 33rd 38th 43rd 48th 15 35 55 75 95
16 36 56 76 96
53rd 58th 63rd 68th 73rd 78th 83rd 88th 93rd 17 37 57 77 97
and 98th observation 18 38 58 78 98
19 39 59 79 99
20 40 60 80 100
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 127
Stratified Random Technique
Sample selection through Simple Random/Systemic Random Technique

Sample Strata 1

Sample Strata 2

Strata 3
Sample

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 128


Multiphase Random Technique
Specific test
Screening Test
S/S
Population

Probable cases Cases


Suspected cases For
study

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 129


Multistage Random Technique

Each stage Simple RT is used village


district
village

village
State 1 district
Population village
Study
Of Population
Nation village
district
village
State 2
village
district
village

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 130


Cluster Random Technique
The unit of random selection is a cluster rather than individual
• CI = Total population /30 (in 30 Cluster Technique)

Cluster 1 Cluster 27

Cluster 2 Cluster 28
Population Study
Of Population
Nation Cluster 3 Cluster 29

Cluster 30
Cluster 4

Through Simple RT

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 131


Stratified Vs Cluster Technique

Stratified Technique Cluster Technique


• Homogenous groups • Comparable groups of
are made population are made
• Randomly select (usually 30)
sample from each group • Randomly select
• To make it more truly sample from each
representative, take group
sample population • More chances of error
proportion to size (PPS) than simple random
• Less chances of error
than simple random
Non Probability Sampling

• When random samples are not possible


• Rare disease
• Small population
• Special population
• Special Condition
• Difficult to reach population

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 133


Non-probability Samples

Convenience
 Purposive
 Quota
 Snow ball study

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 134


12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 135
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 136
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 137
Snow ball sampling

Contact tracing
Initial respondent helps in recruiting
new population
Useful in network analysis approach

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 138


Step-4 & 5

Data Collection
and
Data Management
Sources of Data

• Primary –Own generated data

• Secondary –Already generated data


Published
Non-Published

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 140


Primary Vs Secondary source of Data

Primary data Secondary data


• Need to be generated • Readily available

• First hand information • Second hand information

• Questionnaire
• Not need of questionnaire
• Purpose served
• Purpose served ?
• Analysis as per
purpose • Descriptive
• Require more time and
• Less expensive
money
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 141
Type of Data Collection Methods

 Interview
Personnel
Telephonic
 Observation
 Experimental
 Interview and Observation
 Observation and Experimental
 Interview ,Observation and Experimental
 

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 142


Forms of questions(Open Vs Closed)

Open ended Close ended


• Possible responses are • Categories are given
not given. already coded
• Mean, SD, Median • Proportion
• For seeking opinions, • For eliciting factual
attitudes ,perceptions information
• Not so depth
• Provides in depth info.
• Investigator’s bias
• Experience of • Ease of answering,
investigator and • Easy to analyse
analyst required

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 143


Considerations in formulating questionnaire

(Questionnaire/Interview schedule)

 Use simple and everyday language

 Do not use ambiguous questions(?/?)

 Do not ask leading questions

 The order of questions:

 Guideline for filling an instrument, pen-pencil

Pre testing

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 144


Validity of a Research Instrument

Ability of an instrument to measure what it is


designed to measure being measured

Establish the logical link between the


questions and objectives

 Items/questions cover the full range of


issue/attitude being measured

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 145


1.Decide the information required. Steps
2. Define the target respondents.

3. Method(s) of reaching target

4. Decide on question content.

5. Develop the question wording.

6. Put questions into a meaningful order.

7. Check the length of the questionnaire.

8. Pre-test the questionnaire.

9. Develop the final survey form

12/08/2012
Steps of Questionnaire Design Dr. Kusum Gaur 146
Organization and Compilation of Data

Organization and Compilation of Data in such a way


(Master Chart ) to have reliable, relevant, adequate
and reasonably complete data with following
requisites –
Simplicity
Briefness
Utility
Distinctively
Comparability
Scientific Arrangement
Attractive
Effective
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 147
Observations
Steps of Observations

• Entry of Observations Unites

• Master Chart

• Tabulation

• Diagrammatic Presentation

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 149


Entry of Observation Unites
Master Chart
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Grouping & Classification
Master Chart for Analysis
Tabulation – Content of Table
 Table No. Sequence in the text
 Tile of Table –short, clear and self explanatory to say about for what the
table is ?
 Body of Table –consist of rows and columns
 Rows – 1st row shows headings of columns
 1st column shows headings of rows
 rest of rows and columns are showing data as per required
 number of rows and columns should be limited to maintained
simplicity of table
 source of data ( if it is other than the present study ) should be written
just below the body of table
 Source of Data ?
 Foot Note - written just below the body of table, if there is any hidden
information
 Inferences –summary value of table

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 168


Types of Tables


As per purpose
General tables –about Socio-demographic profile
Specific tables –about Aims and objectives


As per originality
Original tables-from original Data
Derived tables –from original tables


As per Construction
Simple tables- showing one variable at one time
Complex tables – showing > one variable at one time

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 169


12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 170
Tabulation
Diagrammatic Presentations
Bar
Qualitative
 Simple Data
Histogram
 Multiple Frequency Polygon
 Component Cumulative Frequency
Pie Polygon
Line Scatter Diagram
Pictogram Box and Whisker
Spot Map Correlation Diagram

Qualitative Data Quantitative Data


12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 172
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 173
Diagrammatic Presentations
Simple Bar diagram

12%
4th Qtr

3rd Qtr
14%
12%

2nd Qtr
32%

1st Qtr
82%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 175


Multiple Bar diagram
60

50

40

(1) 1-5 Years


30
(2) 6-10 Years
(3) 11 & Above Years

20

10

0
(1) Very Dissatisfied (2) Dissatisfied (3) neither satisfied (4) Satisfied (5) Very Satisfied
nor dissatisfied

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 176


Component Bar diagram

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 177


Pie diagram

Propotion of Pie = (Proportion of that variable )(360)Degree

12%

14% 1st Qtr


2nd Qtr
82% 3rd Qtr
4th Qtr
32%

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 178


Line diagram
7

4
Series 2
3
Series 1
2

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 179


Histogram ( Area Diagramme)

Series 1
40
30
20
10
Series 1
0
0 to 5 yrs
5yrs to 10
10 yrs to
yrs 15 yrs to
15 yrs 20 yrs to
20 yrs
25 yrs

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 180


Scatter Diagram
30

25

20
Duration of Diabetes

15
Duration of diabetes in yrs.
Linear (Duration of diabetes in yrs.)

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300

No. of Patients

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 181


Radar diagram

5/1/2002
40
30
20
9/1/2002 6/1/2002
10
Series 1
0
Series 2

8/1/2002 7/1/2002

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 182


Box & Whisker
70

60

50

40 Open
High
30 Low

20 Close

10

0
5/1/2002 6/1/2002 7/1/2002 8/1/2002 9/1/2002

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 183


Step-6

Analysis of Data
Biostatistics = Biology + Statistics

• Biostatistics is application of statistics in


biology i.e. science of figure in medical science

• Data: Set of information, facts or figures


numerically coded and from which conclusions
may be drawn is called data (singular-datum).

• Statistics: The collection of methods used in


planning an experiment
and analyzing data in order to draw accurate
conclusions.
Type of Biostatistics

• Descriptive statistics generally characterizes


or describes a set of data elements

• Inferential statistics tries to infer information


about a population by using information
gathered by sampling
 
Descriptive Analysis

Qualitative Data
Rates
Ratios
Proportions

Quantitative Data
Central Tendencies  Disperson
Mean Standard Deviation
Mode Standard Error
Median Confidencial Limit
Skeweness

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 187


Descriptive Analysis of
Qualitative Data
No. of total Events in a year (A)
Rate = * 1000
MYP of that Region (T)

No. of total (A)


Ratio =
No. of total (B)
No. of Specific Events (A)
Percentage of Events = * 100
Total Events (T)

Event of Sp. Cause (A)


Proportional Rate = * 10 n
Total Deaths (T)
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 188
Descriptive Analysis of
Quantitative Data
Mean = Mathematical Average ∑X
N
Mode = Most commonly occurring value
Median = Center value when arrange in increasing N+1
or decreasing fashion 2

Standard Deviation = It tells how much scores deviate from the mean
 it is the square root of the variance (X-X)
 it is the most commonly used measure of spread SD=√ N

Standard Error = Deviation from mean per observation


SD/ √N

Skewness = Deviation of peak from median


SK= 3 (Mean –Median)/SD
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 189
SD from MS Excel
SD from MS Excel…
Appropriate choice

of

significance tests

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 192


TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE OF QUALITATIVE DATA

 
TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE OF QUALITATIVE DATA
 
 
One Sample Two Sample >Two Sample
 
Sample proportion
to Independent Dependent Dependent Independent
Population Proportion
Mc Numer Cochron’s

Large Sample Small Sample


(>30) (<30) Yat’s Corrected
‘Z’ Score
Small Corrected
Sample Large Sample‘Z’ Score
Large Sample Small Sample
Chi Squire
Chi Squire ‘Z’ Score Chi Squire
Yat’s Corrected Chi
Chi Squire

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 193


TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE OF QUANTITATIVE DATA

 
TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE OF QUANTITATIVE DATA
 
 
One Sample Two Sample >Two Sample
 
Sample Mean
to Independent Dependent Dependent Independent
Population Mean
Paired ‘T’ Test ANOVA Friedman

Large Sample Small Sample


(>30) (<30)
‘Z’ ‘T’ Test
TestSample Large Sample
Small Large Sample Small Sample
‘Z’ Test
ANOVA ANOVA

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 194


STUDY DESIGNS AND APPROPRIATE TEST

Type Study Design Appropriate Significance Test

Descriptive Study

Analytical
Case Control Study OR
Qualitative ‘Z’ Score Test/Chi-Square Test
Quantitative ‘Z’ Test/’t’ Test
Cohort study OR, AR, & RR
Qualitative ‘Z’ Score Test/Chi-Square Test
Quantitative ‘Z’ Test/’t’ Test
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 195
STUDY DESIGNS AND APPROPRIATE TEST
Type Study Design Appropriate Significance Test

Randomized Controlled study


Quantitative (before and after)- Paired ‘t’ Test
Quantitative (before and after >1 followup)- Freidmen ANOVA
Quantitative (between two Gps)- Unpaired ‘t’ Test
Quantitative (between > two Gps)- ANOVA Test

Randomized Controlled study


Qualitative (before and after)- Mac Numer Test
Qualitative (before and after >1 followup)- Cochron’s Test
Qualitative (between two Gps)- ‘Z’ Score/Chi-square Test
Qualitative (between > twoDr.Gps)-
12/08/2012 Chi-square Test
Kusum Gaur 196
STATISTICAL TEST OF
SIGNIFICANCE
Nominal Numerical Ordinal

Two Groups ‘Z’ Score Test ‘Z’ test (n>30) Mann Whitny
Chi-square Test T Test (n<30)

> Two Groups Chi-square Test ANOVA Kruskal Wallis

Paired Two Mec Numer Paired ANOVA Wilcoxon Sign

Multiple Cohrane Repeated Friedman


Observation in Multivarient ANOVA
same individual

Association of Contegency Correlation(Pearson) Spearman


Two Variable Cofficient Regression Correlation
STATISTICAL TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE
Research Number and Number and Covariates Test Goal of Analysis
Question type of DV type of IV

Nominal 1 nominal chi square determine if difference between


Group croups
differences
Continuous 1 dichotomous t-test
Determine significance of
1 Categorical 1 one-way ANOVA mean group
1+ one-way differences

ANCOVA
2+ Categorical 1 factorial ANOVA
1+ factorial ANCOVA
2+ Continuous 1 Categorical 1 one-way MANOVA Create linear
1+ one-way MANCOVA combo of Dependent variable
2+ Categorical 1 factorial (Dvs)
MANOVA to maximize
1+ factorial MANCOVA mean group
differences
Degree of Continuous 1 Continuous Bivariate Determine
relationship Correlation relationship/prediction

2+ Continuous Multiple Linear combination to predict the


Regression DV
1+ Continuous 2+ Continuous Path Analysis Estimate causal relations among
variables

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 198


Comparing difference between
Two Sample Proportions
‘Z’ Score Test
P2 – P1 here, P1– proportion of that event in 1st Sample
‘Z’ Score = P2 - proportion of that event in 2nd Sample
SEDP SEDP – Standard Error of
Difference in Proportion

Q1 - proportion without that event


in 1st Sample i.e. Q1 = 100 – P1
P1Q 1 P2Q2 Q2 - proportion without that event in
SEDP = ------- + -------- 2nd Sample i.e. 100 – P2
N1 N2 N1 - Sample Size of 1st Sample
N2 - Sample Size of 2nd Sample

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 199


Inference of ‘Z’ Score Test

If ‘Z’ > 2 = Difference is Significant

If ‘Z’ < 2 = Difference is Not Significant

If ‘Z’ > 3 = Difference is Highly Significant

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 200


Comparing difference between
>Two Sample Proportions
Chi-Square Test
 
Indications
Qualitative data
Normal distribution
Comparing difference between
Two Sample proportions
Multiple Sample proportions

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 201


Comparing difference between
>Two Sample Proportions
Chi-Square Test
Chi Square(2) = ∑all cells(O-E)2 Tr x T c
E E=
T
(O1-E1)2 (O2-E2)2 (O3-E4)2 (On-En)2
Chi Squire = + + + ---+
E1 E2 E3 En
Tr – Total of that Row
here, O – Observed value of cell Tc – Total of
that column
E – Expected value of cell,
considering Null T – Grand Total i.e. a+b+c+d
Hypothesis
Degree of Freedom (DF) = (C – 1) (R -1)

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur


R= No. of Rows, C = No. of Column 202
Inference of Chi Square(x2)
Chi Square(x2 ) value is seen at Degree of Freedom
DF = (R – 1) (C – 1), from Chi Square((2) Table
(here R=No. of Rows &C= No. of Column)
at desired level of significance

Inferences
If Chi Square(x2 ) Test Value is –
Higher than Table value = Difference in proportions is
Significant at that desired level of significance.

If Chi Square(x2 ) Test Value is –


Lower than Table value = Difference in proportions is
Not Significant at that desired level of significance.
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 203
Comparing difference between
Two Sample Means (>30)
‘Z’ Test
Pre-requisites
Quantitative data
 Homogenous normally distributed Random Sample
Sample Size > 30
 
Indications
To see the Significance of any Observation in reference of
Mean Value of that sample
Comparing difference between
Sample Mean to Population Mean
Means of Two independent Samples

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 204


Comparing difference between
Two Sample Means (>30)
‘Z’ Test
X2 – X1 here, X1– Mean of that event in 1st Sample
‘Z’ Test = X2 - Mean of that event in 2nd Sample
SEDM SEDM – Standard Error of
Difference in Means

SD1 – Standard Error of 1st Sample


SD2 – Standard Error of 2nd Sample
SD2 1 SD2 2 N1 - Sample Size of 1st Sample
SEDM = ------- + -------- N2 - Sample Size of 2nd Sample
N1 N2

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 205


Comparing difference between
Two Sample Means (<30)
‘T’ Test
Prerequisites

Random Sample

Quantitative data

Normally Distributed

Sample Size < 30


12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 206
Type of ‘T’ Test

as per design
Unpaired / Paired

for inference
One Tail /Two tail

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 207


Unpaired ‘T’ Test Design

Population -1 Population -2

S-1 S-2

Mean --1 Unpaired ‘T’ test Mean --2

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 208


Paired ‘T’ Test Design

Intervention

Population Sam
Observations-1 Observations 2
ple-

Mean --1 Mean --2


Paired ‘T’ test

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 209


One Tail ‘T’ Test

Acceptance Zone Rejection Zone


One Tail – Results are aspect only in one direction
Two Tail ‘T’ Test

Rejection Zone Acceptance Zone Rejection Zone


Two Tail – Results are aspect in both direction
Comparing difference between
Two Sample Means (<30)
‘T’ Test
X2 – X1 here, X1– Mean of that event in 1st Sample
‘T’ Test = --------------- X2 - Mean of that event in 2nd Sample
SEDM SEDM – Standard Error of
Difference in Means

SD1 – Standard Error of 1st Sample


SD2 – Standard Error of 2nd Sample
SD2 1 SD2 2 N1 - Sample Size of 1st Sample
SEDM = ------- + -------- N2 - Sample Size of 2nd Sample
N1 N2

Degree of Freedom (DF) = (N1 – 1) + (N2 -1) = N1 + N2 - 2

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 212


Inference of ‘T’ Test Value
‘T’ Test Value is matched at Degree of Freedom
(DF) = N1 + N2 – 2 in the Table of “T”
at desired level of significance.

Inferences
If ‘T’ Test Value is –
Higher than Table value = Difference in Means is
Significant at that desired level of significance.

If ‘T’ Test Value is –


Lower than Table value = Difference in Means is
Not Significant at that desired level of significance.
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 213
Comparing difference between
>Two Sample Means

ANALYSIS OF VARIENCE (ANOVA) TEST

  Pre-requisites
Quantitative data
 Homogenous normally distributed Random Sample
 
Indications
Comparing difference between more than Two
Means

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 214


Comparing difference between
>Two Sample Means
‘ANOVA’ Test
MSOSI MSOS2 - Mean Sum Of Squares Within Classes
ANOVA = ---------- = Total SOS – MSOSI
MSOS2
T SOS = X2 – (X)2/N

MSOSI – Mean Sum Of Squares Between Classes = SOSI / K-1

SOSI –Sum Of Squares Between Classes

(Xa)2 (Xb)2 (Xc)2 (Xk)2 (X)2


= --------- + ----------- + ----------- + ….+ ____ __ - --------- Na Nb Nc
Nk N

At Degree of Freedom (DF) = ( K-1) Horizontal


(N – K) Vertical
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 215
Inference of ANOVA
Find out Variance Ratio value at Degree of Freedom
(DF) = ( K-1) Horizontal, (N – K) Vertical
from the Variance Ratio Table
at desired level of significance.

Inferences
If Test value is > Table value = Difference in Means is
Significant at that desired level of significance.

If Test value is < Table value = Difference in Means is


Not Significant at that desired level of significance.

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 216


CORRELATION

Indications

To find out relationship between variables

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 217


Type & Degree of Correlation
Correlation Inference Correlation (r) Inference
+1 Perfect +ve -1 Perfect +ve
Correlation Correlation
> 0.95 About Perfect +ve > - 0.95 About Perfect +ve
Correlation Correlation
> 0.75 V. Good Correlation > - 0.75 V. Good Correlation

0.75 – 0.5 Moderate Correlation - 0.75 to – 0.5 Moderate


Correlation
0.5 – 0.25 Fair Correlation - 0.5 to – 0.25 Fair Correlation
0.25 - 0 No Correlation < - 0.25 No Correlation

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 218


Correlation

CORRELATION
 

Two Variables > Two Variables


 

Un-Paired Data Paired Data 

Pearson’s Spearman’s Rank Order Multivariate


Correlation Correlation Correlation
 

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 219


Pearson’s correlation

. ∑ ( X – X) ∑ ( Y – Y) ∑xy
Correlation (r) = =
√∑ ( X – X)2 ∑ ( Y – Y)2 √ ∑ x2 y2
 
 
Direct Method
∑ X Y - ∑ X ∑Y / N
Correlation (r) = -----------------------------
√ {∑X2 – (∑X)2/N}{ ∑Y2 – (∑Y)2 /N}

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 220


Pearson’s correlation -----

 
here,
∑ X Y = Sum of multiplication of X and Y
∑ X = Sum of all observations of X Series
∑ Y = Sum of all observations of YX Series
N =Total no. of observations
∑X2 = Sum of Squares of all observations of X Series
∑Y2 = Sum of Squares of all observations of Y Series
(∑X)2 = Square of Sum of all observations of X Series
(∑Y)2 = Square of Sum of all observations of Y Series

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 221


Spearman’s Rank Order Correlation

6∑D2
• Spearman’s Rank (rs ) = 1 -
N3 - N
 
 

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 222


Significance Test for Correlation (r)

Standard Error (SE) of rs = rs √ N-1

Inference
• If difference >2 SE of r =Difference is
Significant at 5% level
• If difference < 2SE of r =Difference is
Not Significant at 5% level

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 223


REGRESSION

Indication
To find out causal relationship between
variables

REGRESSION COFFICIENT- It is a measure of


change in one dependent variable (y) with
one unit change in the other variable (x)

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 224


Regression line with Regression Equation

The regression equation of ‘Y’ on ‘X’ is expressed as follows:


Here, ‘a’ is interceptor & ‘b’ is slope Yc = a + bX
Regression Lines

Régression line of Y on X is Y = a + bX ----(1)


Régression line of X on Y is X = a + bY ----(2)

Here- Y = one variable


X = other variable
a = interceptor of X line on Y line
b = slope of X line on Y line Regression

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 226


Regression – Equations
Regression Equation of X on Y
SD of series X
(X – X)= r (Y –Y) ---- (3)
SD of series Y
 

Regression Equation of Y on X

SD of series Y
(Y – Y)= r (X –X) ------- (4)
SD of series X
 

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 227


Regression – coefficients
Regression Coefficient of X on Y
SD of series X ∑(X-X)(Y –Y)

b(xy)= r =
SD of series Y ∑(X – X)2
 

Regression Coefficient of Y on X
SD of series Y ∑(X-X)(Y –Y)
b(yx)= r =
SD of series X ∑(Y – Y)2

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 228


Relation of correlation and
Regression

Co-rrelation (r) = √ bxy byx


 

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 229


Between
Tests/Procedure/Therapy
For comparison with Gold Standard:
Sensitivity
Specificity
PPV
NPV
ROC

For agreement of association: Kappa


For appropriate cut of value for diagnostic test: ROC

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 230


Sensitivity and Specificity
    Status based on gold standard test

    Diseased Normal

Test positive True positive False positive


Observation in a b
new test Test negative False negative True negative
c d

Sensitivity = a /(a+c) PPV = a /(a+b)

Specificity = d /(b+d) NPV = d /(c+d)

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 231


‘ROC’ Curve
Kappa Statistics
(Measurement of Agreement)
Test Value Inference
0.93 – 1 Excellent Agreement
0.81 – 0.92 Very Good Agreement
0.61 – 0.80 Good Agreement
0.41 – 0.60 Fair Agreement
0.21 – 0.40 Slight Agreement
0.01 – 0.20 Poor Agreement
< 0.01 No Agreement
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 233
Non-Parametric Tests
Advantages
Distribution free
Easier to do
Easier to understand/infer

Disadvantages
They ignore certain amount of information
Indicated only ordinal or nominal data
Statistically Less efficient
Indicated only to test hypothesis, not for estimates

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 234


Parametric Test Vs Non-Parametric
Test Quality Parametric Non-Parametric

Assumed Distribution Normal Any

Assumed Variance Homogenous Any

Data Type Interval-Continous Nominal /Ordinal

Data set Relationship Independent Any

Usual Centre Measure Mean Median

More conclusions Easier to calculate


Advantages
More efficient Less affected by outliers

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 235


Parametric Test Vs Non-Parametric
Test Parametric Non-Parametric

Correlation test Pearson Spearman

Independent Independent-
Mann-Whitney test
measures, 2 groups measures t-test

One-way,
Independent
independent- Kruskal-Wallis test
measures, >2 groups
measures ANOVA

Repeated measures,
Matched-pair t-test Wilcoxon test
2 conditions

Repeated Signmeasures, One-way, repeated


Test (K Test)– nonparametric test for quantitative paired data
Friedman's test
>2 conditions
12/08/2012 measures ANOVA
Dr. Kusum Gaur 236
Sign test

• Simplest
• Based on direction(- /+/0)
• Signs as per the direction are counted

• Inference – if S≤K = Null hypothesis (H₀) is


rejected
• Here ‘S’ is net sum of signs as per sign
• ‘K’ is constant

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 237


Sign test – Steps

Sign K Test for Small Sample (<30)


– Find out net sum of signs as per sign(S)
– S = (total + signs) – (total – signs)
– K = (n-1)/2 - 0.98√n
• Inference – if S≤K = Null hypothesis (H₀) is rejected

Sign Z Test for Large Sample (>30)


– Find out no of ties with less frequent sign(X)
– Z = (X – np) / √ np (1-p) here X= no. + Sign
• Inference – if Z>2 = Null hypothesis is rejected

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 238


12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 239
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 240
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 241
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 242
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 243
Step-7

Inferences

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 244


Steps in Statistical Inference

 Generating NULL and ALTERNATIVE


hypothesis
 Testing the hypothesis using appropriate
statistical tests
 Obtaining ‘p’ value
 Concluding from the p value.
 Obtaining Level of Significance
 Comparing ‘p’ value with CI.

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 245


‘P’ Value and Inferences
with Normal Curve

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 246


Rejection Zone Acceptance Zone Rejection Zone
Mean ± 1SD =68% values - Confidence Limit 68% - P Value = >0.05 - NS
Mean ± 2SD =95% values - Confidence Limit 95% - P Value = 0.05 - S
Mean ± 3SD =99% values - Confidence Limit 99% - P Value = 0.001 - HS
Normal Curve, P Value and Level of Significance

Rejection Zone Acceptance Zone Rejection Zone


Mean ± 1SD =68% values - Confidence Limit 68% - P Value =/>0.05 - NS
Mean ± 2SD =95% values - Confidence Limit 95% - P Value < 0.05 – S
Mean ± 3SD =99% values - Confidence Limit 99% P Value < 0.001 - HS
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 248
Conventionally Accepted
Significance Level

 P Value > 0.05 LS=Not Significant

 P Value < 0.05 LS=Significant

 P Value < 0.001 LS=Highly Significant


Step-8

Reporting

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 250


Steps of Report Writing

Title of Project
Abstract
Introduction
Aims & Objectives
Methodology
Observations-Compilation, Classification &
Presentation of data with analysis and inferences
Discussion
Conclusions
Recommendations
Limitations
Acknowledgment
Bibliography

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 251


Discussion

 Explanation of findings
 Logic and reasoning for the results as it
appears
 Compare and contrast with findings of other
researchers
 Based on objectives of the study
 Should answer the research question
 Scope & limitations of the study

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 252


Recommendations & conclusions

• Based on our findings


• Limited to objectives of the study
• Policy implications
• Relevance should be emphasized
• Should be exclusively limited to
observations

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 253


Managerial and financial aspects

 Protocol development
 Time line/Gantt chart
 Peer review
 Development of tools
 Training in data collection
 Budget/ financial accounting
 Quality control
 Monitoring & Evaluation

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 254


Time Line/Gant chart/log Fram
Activities 1.1.12- 16.1- 1.2.12- 1.3.12- 16.5.12- 16.6.12- 16.7.12-
15.1.12 31.1 15.2.12 15.5.12 15.6.12 15.7.12 31.7.12

Planning
Officials
Que. Dev
Training
Poilet Survey
Corrections
Re-training
Resource Proc

Survey
Analysis
Report Writing
Dissemination
of Report
Computer in Statistics

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 256


Web sites related to Statistics

• http://stattrek.com
• http://vassarstat.net
• http://www.scribd.com
• http://www.statistixl.com
• http://statistics calculators.com
• http://stat.ubc.ca/~rollin/stats/ssize/
• ………………………………………………………
……
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 257
Computer Softwares in Statistics

• Microsoft Excel
• SPSS
• Epi info
• Epi tab
• Mini tab
• Graph Pad
• Primer
• Medcal
• ……………..
12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 258
Always there is room for improvement

12/08/2012 Dr. Kusum Gaur 259

You might also like