Chapter Eight:

FLOOD – FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

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Concepts of Frequency Analysis

Frequency distribution Functions
Gumbel’s Method
Design floods
 CONCEPTS OF FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
• The term frequency analysis refers to the techniques whose
objective is to analyze the occurrence of hydrologic variable
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within statistical framework,

• Hydrological processes evolve in space and time in a manner
that is partly predictable, or deterministic and partly random, and
such processes are called stochastic processes.
• Frequency analyses try to answer the following problems
• Given n years of daily stream flow record for stream X, what
is the maximum (or minimum) flow Q that is likely to recur
with a frequency of once in T years on average?
• What is the return period associated with a maximum (or
minimum) flow Q.
 FLOOD FREQUENCY MODELS
• In flood frequency analysis, a unique relationship between a
flood magnitude(Q) and the corresponding recurrence interval
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(T) is sought. The task is to extract information from a flow record

to estimate the relationship between Q and T.
• Three different models may be considered for this purpose
– the annual maximum series (AM) model,
– the partial duration series (PD)/ peaks over a threshold (POT) model,
– the time series (TS) model.
• Annual maximum (AM)
– The values of annual maximum floods for successive years are required
– The data arranged in decreasing order of magnitude and the probability P of
each event’s equaled to or exceeded is computed by plotting-positions

m
P  Where m= order number of the event
N 1
N= total number of events in the data
– The recurrence interval /return period is calculated T = 1/P
 FREQUENCEY-DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
• Chow (1951) present the most applicable Frequency-distribution equation as
X T  x  Kσ
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Where XT = value of the extreme event with the return period T

=xmean of the recorded values
σ = Standard deviation of the recorded values
T= return period
K = Frequency factor
• Frequency factor depends on the return period T and frequency distribution
functions for the prediction of the extreme values

• The commonly used frequency distribution functions are

• Gumbel distribution: Extreme Value Type I
• Extreme value distribution Type II (EVII)
• Extreme Value Type III (Weibull) distribution
• Log-Pearson Type III distribution
 • The return period/ recurrence interval of an event from a given data
series can be estimated by Weibule’s formula .
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T =n/m+ 1
From which the probablity of occurence (exccedece/being equaled)
of that event is estimated by:

Then the probablity of an event not to occur is, P’:

P’ = 1-P
 GUMBEL’S METHOD (EVI)
• The extreme type-I probablity distribution function is given by:
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• Where

• S= -

• A reduced variate can be defined as;

• =>

• Solving for y =>

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If we substitute it in equation ‘a’ above, we will get:

and related to xT by
 Gumbel’s…….
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So the extreme value can compute using Chow general equation

 Example
• The following table present actual maximum monthly discharge
(m3/s) data given for known station of XX. Using the Extreme
Value Distribution Type I (EVI), compute the flood values of
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return period T=2, 5, 10, 50

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STD
solution
 EXAMPLE
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The annual maximum daily discharge measured on the Beressa

river at Debere Birhan gauging site are given in Table below. The
Beressa river is a tributary of Jemma River which is lying in Abay
basin and has watershed area of 220 km2 . Calculate the 5- and 50-
year return period annual maximum discharge of the Beressa river
at Deberebirhan using EVI

Year 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Q(m3/s) 60.4 59.5 82.5 90 32.8 75 58 112.5 151.4 80.7 144 63.1 81.3 163 83.7 140 58 74.5

Year 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Q (m3/s) 101 84.4 180 107.1 66.8 92 89.4 17.9 67.7 37.4 53.5 56.1 54.5 56.6 252.2 148.7 126 91.9
 DESIGN FLOOD
• Flood adopted for the design of a structure
– Spillway Design Flood (SDF): the flood specifically computed for the
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design of a spillway of a storage structure

– Standard Project Flood (SPF): the flood that would result from a
severe combination of meteorological and hydrological factors that
reasonably applicable to the region
– Probable maximum Flood (PMF): the extreme flood that physically
possible in a region as a result of severe most combinations of
meteorological and hydrological factors

• The criteria used for selecting the design flood for various
hydraulics structures vary from one country to another
 ERA Standard for design frequency
Table 2-1 Design Storm Frequency (Yrs) by Geometric Design Criteria
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Structure Type Geometric Design Standard

DS1/DS2 DS3/DS4 DS5/6/7 DS8/9/10
Gutters and Inlets* 10/5 2 2 -
Side Ditches 10 10 5 5
Ford/Low-Water Bridge - - - 5
Culvert, pipe (see Note) 25 10 5 5
Span<2m
Culvert, 2m<span <6m 50 25 10 10
Short Span Bridges 50 50 25 25
6m<span<15m
Medium Span Bridges 100 50 50 50
15m<span<50m
Long Span Bridges 100 100 100 100
spans>50m

Check/Review Flood 200 200 100 100

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 Flood Routing
The flood hydrograph ordinates of an event at the gauging station,
which is upstream of a reservoir and its reach parameters k and x
are 12hr and 0.2, is presented below in Table 1. The river flow at
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gauging station and reservoir inlet was the same at the start of the
inflow flood. And The storage, elevation, and outflow relation of the
reservoir is given in Table2. If the reservoir surface is at elevation
300.20m at the time of the flood starts enters to the reservoir, route
the flood to obtain the outflow hydrograph and the reservoir
elevation vs time curve
Table 1
Time(h) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
Inflow (m3/s) 10 20 50 60 55 45 35 27 20
Table 2
E (m) 299.5 300.2 300.7 301.2 301.7 302.2 302.7

S (106 m3) 4.8 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.8

Q (m3/s) 0 0 15 40 75 115 160

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Hydrograph

The peak of flood hydrograph due to a 3-hr duration isolated storm

in a catchment is 270m3/sec. The total depth of the rainfall is 5.9cm.
Assuming an average infiltration loss of 0.3cm/hr and a constant
base flow of 20m3/sec.
a. Estimate the peak of the 3hr unit hydrograph of the
catchment
b. If the area of the catchment is 567km2 determine the base
width of the 3hr unit hydrograph by assuming it to be
triangular in shape