Climate change: Global

warming and cooling

GENG 201
Introduction to Engineering
Global Warming and Cooling

historical records and

geologic evidence indicate
that climate at any
Not a new phenomenon
location usually changes
slowly, but rarely stays the
same for long.
 Global Warming and Cooling
Last 1000 Years: Average Temperature Relatively Stable
 Global Warming and Cooling
Last 900,000 Years: Glacial and Interglacial Periods
Global
warming and
cooling
The Earth 18,000 Years Ago!!
What • The amount of sunlight Earth receives
Determines the • The amount of sunlight Earth reflects
• The atmospheric retention of re-radiated heat, a
Temperature of function of the amount of greenhouse gasses in
Earth? the atmosphere
Earth’s Energy Budget
What Determines the
Temperature of Earth:
amount of sunlight
What Determines the Temperature
of Earth: Reflected sunlight and
lost energy
 The Greenhouse
Effect

• occurring for
Natural millions of years
phenomenon • Earth and other
planets

• Earth would be
Without much colder
greenhouse • most of the surface
effect water would be
frozen

• due to water vapor

Most natural and small particles of
“greenhouse water in the
warming” atmosphere
 • Anthropogenic greenhouse gases and air pollution
Potential extra • carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and
warming chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

Greenhouse
gasses absorb infrared • Infrared radiation is heat
Gasses radiation from Earth • Absorbed heat means warming of the earth

• agriculture, deforestation, and burning of

Main sources fossil fuels
Greenhouse Gasses Concentrations of those greenhouse
gasses increasing due to human activity
Atmospheric
Levels of
Carbon
Dioxide and
Methane,
Global
Temperatures,
and Sea Levels
Carbon Dioxide Trends
in the atmosphere

Average
of • ranged from 200
carbon to 300 ppm
dioxide

• 125,000 years ago

Highest (major interglacial
levels periods)
• at present!!
Ice cores are extracted by drilling deep holes in ancient
glaciers!!
Help in determining historic CO2 levels
Carbon Dioxide

• Concentration of carbon
dioxide approximately 280
ppm
• at the beginning of the
Industrial Revolution
• Since 1860, exponential
increase in carbon dioxide
concentration due to fossil
fuel burning
• Concentration of carbon
dioxide ca. 380 ppm today;
expected to reach 450 ppm in
2050
Can the Oceans
Save Us?

• oceans absorbed about half the carbon dioxide

released into the atmosphere since the industrial
revolution!!
• Currently absorb 25 – 30% of the released CO2
• Some CO2 converted to insoluble carbonate salts
buried in bottom sediments
• Solubility of CO2 in ocean waters decreases as
temperature increases: implications??
• Ocean acidification due to dissolved CO2: Impacts on
ecosystems???!
 Cloud cover and
Earth heating

• uncertainty
• about the effects of cloud
cover on global warming
• Warmer temperatures create
more clouds!
• Thick, light-colored low
altitude clouds: decrease
surface temperature
• Thin, cirrus clouds at high
altitudes: increase surface
temperature
 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; 2007)
• Arctic temperature rising almost twice as fast as the
Anthropogenic rest of the earth during the last 50 years
Global Warming • Melting of glaciers and floating sea ice
• Prolonged droughts increasing
• Sea levels rose 10–20 cm in the last 100 years
 • Using mathematical models
• numerical means of representing real-
world phenomena and the linkages and
Predicting Future interactions between the processes
Climates involved
• computing power increases
• Becoming more reliable
 •plays an important role in supplying heat to the polar regions
Thermohaline •plays an important role in regulating the amount of sea ice in
these regions
Circulation •Changes in the thermohaline circulation are thought to have
significant impacts on the Earth's radiation budget
Future Rapid Climate Change Events
Possible due to
1. Disruption of the thermohaline circulation
2. Solar Forcing
3. Volcanic Forcing
 What is Forcing?
climate forcings:
• Changes to Earth's radiative equilibrium
that cause temperatures to rise or fall

Positive radiative forcing

• Earth receives more incoming energy from
sunlight than it radiates to space.
• This net gain of energy will cause warming

negative radiative forcing

• Earth loses more energy to space than it
receives from the sun
• produces cooling

thermal equilibrium
• zero radiative forcing
 Solar Forcing
• Sun is responsible for heating Earth.
• Solar variation might be a cause of climate
change.
• The Medieval Warm Period (1000 – 1300 CE)
• corresponds to a time of increased solar radiation.
• Minimum solar activity occurred during the 14th
Century, which coincides with the beginning of the
Little Ice Age.
• Solar variation? Patterns of solar irradiance and solar
variation
• main driver of climate change over geologic
timescale
• its role in the recent warming has been found to be
insignificant
 • Since 1975, the troposphere has warmed while the
Is a Hotter Sun stratosphere has cooled
the Culprit? • This is not what a hotter sun would do!!
 • Upon eruption, volcanoes hurl vast
amounts of particulate matter
Volcanic Forcing (aerosols) into the atmosphere.
• Aerosols reflect a significant amount of
sunlight and produce a net cooling.
Volcanic Tremendous explosions
Forcing
• sent ash to elevations of 30 km into
Mt. Pinatubo, the atmosphere!!
The The aerosol cloud of ash and
Philippines, sulfur dioxide
1991 • remained in the atmosphere for
several years.

Particles of ash and sulfur

dioxide
• scattered incoming solar radiation
• counterbalanced the effect of
greenhouse gasses for around three
years
 • Increased atmospheric aerosols
over the USA (from air pollution)
Did You Know? have probably reduced air mean
temperature by around 1°C!!
Effects of Global
Warming

• Worst-case scenarios
 Ecosystems
collapsing
 Low-lying cities
flooded
 Wildfires in forests
Prolonged droughts:
grasslands become
dust bowls
 More destructive
storms
Glaciers shrinking
rivers drying up
Severe • Forest and grassland fires will increase; this adds carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere.
Drought • Water table will fall because of irrigation and evaporation.

Increasing: • Some lakes and seas will shrink and disappear.

• More rivers will fail to reach the sea.
The Browning • Soil moisture and available surface water will decline.
of the Earth • Drought accelerates global warming due to the decrease in growth of
trees and other plants.
• Biodiversity will decrease.
Melting Snow and
Ice
• Why will global warming be worse in the
polar regions? Think of the land exposed
when the ice melts!! (faster warming?)
• Mountain glaciers are melting almost
everywhere in the world.

1948
Melting of Alaska’s Muir Glacier in
the Glacier Bay National Park and 2004
Preserve
Melting Ice in • Largest island; 80% covered with glaciers
Greenland • 10% of the world’s fresh water
 Melting Ice in the Arctic

• Each summer
• some of the floating ice in the
Arctic melts
• Rising atmospheric and ocean
temperatures
• caused more and more ice to The Big Melt: Floating Sea Ice in the Arctic Sea
melt
 • changing global climate
• retreat of glaciers worldwide
• Adding to the world’s oceans water from frozen sources melts
• rise in the level of the sea are low-lying areas
Retreating • Rising sea levels

Glaciers and • 40 centimeters by the year 2080 200 million people would be
affected

Rising Oceans • intrusion of salt water and erosion of coastal areas

• Low-lying coastal countries most affected
• Global mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1.7 mm/year
• over the past 100 years
• significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several
thousand years.
 Rising Sea
Levels

Areas of Florida,
USA, to flood if
DUE TO EXPANSION DUE TO MELTING OF average sea level
OF WARM WATER LAND-BASED ICE
rises by one meter

Projected irreversible effect

• Degradation and loss of 1/3 of coastal estuaries,
wetlands, and coral reefs
• Disruption of coastal fisheries
• Flooding of
• Low-lying barrier islands and coastal areas
Low-Lying Island Nation: • Agricultural lowlands and deltas
The Maldives in
the Indian Ocean • Contamination of freshwater aquifers
Extreme Weather Will
Increase in Some Areas
• Heat waves and droughts in some areas
• Prolonged rains and flooding in other areas
• Hurricanes!!

global warming
• associated with extreme
climatic conditions

Small changes in global

mean temperatures
• can produce relatively large
changes in the frequency of
extreme temperatures
• Higher average ambient air
temperatures are likely to
induce more vigorous cycles of
evaporation and precipitation
• Extreme heatwaves in certain
areas
 Major Threat to
Biodiversity

Most susceptible ecosystems

• Coral reefs
• Polar seas
• Coastal wetland
• High-elevation mountaintops
• Alpine and arctic tundra
• Importance of biodiversity
for human health???

Climate Change Will Shift Areas

Where Crops Can Be Grown
• GMOs tolerant to drought??
Exploding Populations of Mountain Pine Beetles in British
Columbia, Canada
 Climate Change Will Threaten the Health of Many
People

Deaths from heat waves will Higher temperatures can cause

increase.
Deaths from cold weather will decrease. Deaths.
increased flooding.
increase in some forms of air pollution,
more ozone.
increase in the number of insects,
Solution? • Drastically reduce the amount of microbes, toxic molds, and fungi.
greenhouse gas emissions
Two • Devise strategies to reduce the
approaches harmful effects of global warming
 • Contributes heavily to the greenhouse effect by
decreasing the capacity of trees to reduce the amount
Deforestation of CO2 in the atmosphere
• Amazon rainforest: the largest tropical forest in the
impact on world (31% of the world’s total)
global • Forests contribute to clean air, water, habitat for
warming animals, recreational opportunities, and valuable
lumber
• logging and clear-cutting caused habitat
fragmentation
 Potential Impacts of Global Warming
on humans!

disturbances in production of an exacerbation of linked to may cause

the native environment the effects of air extreme climatic disruption of
habitats of plant that is pollution conditions such the food supply
and animal conducive to the as heat waves, and dwindling of
species growth of droughts, and food resources,
vector-borne monsoons especially in
diseases developing
areas
Other Potential • global mean temperatures increase
Impacts of • changes in the ecological system favor the growth of some disease-
causing agents (e.g., bacteria and fungi) and disease-carrying vectors.
Global • increases prevalence and incidence of emerging and reemerging
Warming: infectious diseases
• Linked to some degree to climate changes and extreme weather (Ex.
Changes in the Heavy rainfalls)
Distribution of • Ex. mosquito can expand farther north instead of being killed by the
freezing temperatures during winter increase in mosquito borne
Endemic diseases. Examples??
• If summers become longer and winters milder, rodents and small
Diseases mammal species that are reservoirs for zoonotic diseases might be
able to breed and survive for longer time periods.
 Coral Bleaching, Maldives

27oC normal 30oC event

Changes in Average Ocean Temperatures, Relative to Coral Bleaching Threshold

Capturing
and
Storing
Carbon
Dioxide
Questions