PAGASA Weather Forecasting

and Early Warning System

ESPERANZA OBLENA-CAYANAN, Ph.D.

Weather Services Chief
Weather Division, PAGASA

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
DOST-PAGASA – HIMAWARI ENHANCED INFRARED

12 NN UPDATE 22 JUNE 2018 FRIDAY

 OUTLINE
Introduction:
PAGASA in a Nutshell

Early Warning
System

Communication &
Dissemination
PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 Philippine
Atmospheric,
Geophysical &
Astronomical
Services
Administration

Legal Mandate
To provide protection against natural calamities and utilize
scientific knowledge as an effective instrument to insure the
safety, well being and economic security of all the people,
and for the promotion of national progress.

Section 2, Statement of Policy, Presidential Decree No. 78;

December 1972 as amended by PD No. 1149; August 1977
Mission
Deliver reliable and relevant weather-related information,
products and services to develop communities resilient to
typhoons, floods, rain-induced landslides, storm surges, extreme
climatic events climate change and astronomical hazards
Vision
The Center of Excellence for weather related information
and services

 The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a

Member of the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), a specialized body of
the United Nations.
 PAGASA MODERNIZED PAGASA
CHART
ORGANIZATIONAL • ICT Division
OFFICE OF THE ADMINISTRATOR • Info & Public
3 Deputy Administrators Awareness Division
• Administration & Engineering Services
• Operations & Services
• Research & Development

Financial, Planning Engineering and

Administrative
and Management Technical Services
Division
Division Division

Climatology and Research &

Hydro-Meteorology
Weather Division Agrometeorology Development and
Division
Division Training Division
National Capital Region
PAGASA Regional Northern Luzon

Services Divisions Southern Luzon

Visayas
(5)
Mindanao
 PAGASA
Northern
Regional Luzon
Services
• Synoptic Observation
Divisions (5)
Network
Southern
• Flood Forecasting National Luzon
Warning Centers Capital
• Radar Network Region
• Agromet Observation Field Stations
Network
• Upper-Air
Observation Network Visayas
• AWS Network
• Rainfall Station
Network Mindanao

MODERNIZED PAGASA:
ADDITIONAL 3 REGIONAL OFFICES
• San Fernando, La Union
• Tacloban
• Davao
 INTRODUCTION
• Philippines is 4th in the world
as the country’s most exposed
and at risk to natural hazards
(World Risk Report 2017).
• 20 Tropical Cyclones in a year
with the following associated
hazards
- Strong Winds
- Excessive Rainfall &
Thunderstorms
- Floods
- Landslides/Mudflows
- Storm Surges
- Tornado
• Affected by ITCZ and
monsoons that result to floods Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in
the Western North Pacific (WNW) during
and landslides the period 1948-2010 (data used : JMA
Data set) (Source : Cinco, et. al.,2011)
What is Weather Forecasting?
Weather Forecasting is the application of
science and technology to predict the
future state of the atmosphere at a given
location.

Meteorological
Meteorological Knowledge
Knowledgeofof
Data
Data Meteorology
Meteorology

Weather
Forecast
 End-to-End Warning System
24x7 Observations Reception/ Customization/ Utilization/ Response
Data Collection / Integration/ Tailor-fitting of Dissemination
Transmission Processing/ Warnings,
Analyses Advisories, Info
Field
Stations

Met. Satellites

Upper-air
Stations

Weather
Radars
Automatic
Stations

Ocean Buoys

Wind Profiler

Aviation Obs.
Stations-LIDARS

Lightning Detection
System

Wave Glider

Global
GTS
Observations
Coastal Radars
 NETWORK OF OBSERVATIONS
9 Upper-Air Stns.
59 Synoptic Stns
25 Agromet Stns

The Weather and Climate Authority

RADAR NETWORK
S-band
S-band 2008
Basco Radar Station
2013 20o25’ 14.87” N 121o57’ 54.76” E
Site Elevation: 166 meters
Palawan Radar Station
9° 13’ 50.01’’ N 118° 00’ 20.09’’ E

C-band Site Elevation: 17 meters

2014 C-band
2015 S-band
S-band
2009
Agno
Daet 2012
Lao-ang

Masbate
S-band S-band
2009 2013

C-band Bohol
2011 C-band
2011

S-band
2012 S-band
Iloilo Radar Station
S-band 2011
10° 46’ 20.08’’ N 122° 34’ 45.08’’ E
Site Elevation: 10 meters
2015
The Weather and Climate Authority
 No. RADAR STATUS
RADAR NETWORK STATION
1 APARRI OPERATIONAL
2 BAGUIO OPERATIONAL
BASCO
3 BALER FOR REPLACEMENT
4 SUBIC OPERATIONAL
5 TAGAYTAY OPERATIONAL
6 VIRAC FOR REHABILITATION
AGNO
7 GUIUAN OPERATIONAL
8 MACTAN OPERATIONAL
DAET
9 HINATUAN OPERATIONAL
10 TAMPAKAN OPERATIONAL
MASBATE

LAOANG 11 BASCO FOR REPLACEMENT

12 ILOILO OPERATIONAL
13 PALAWAN OPERATIONAL
14 ZAMBOANGA 2017
BOHOL
15 BUSUANGA 2018
16 DAET 2018
17 BOHOL 2019
18 AGNO 2019
19 MASBATE 2019
20 LAOANG 2019

The Weather and Climate Authority

Mobile X-band Radar

PAGASA Mobile Radars:

• QC Headquarter for Storm Chasers
• Baler, Aurora
• Guiuan

6 more X-band radars by 2020 for

River Basins

The Weather and Climate Authority

 SATELLITE RECEIVING FACILITY
Station WFFC PRSDs
SATELLITE

HIMAWARI 1 4
NOAA
COMS 1

FY-2G 1

NOAA 1

FY2G HIMAWARI
COMS

The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Observing Facility & Telecommunication System
 AVIATION WEATHER OBSERVING STATION
(AWOS)

“tracking the sky. . and

The Weather . helping the country”
Climate Authority PAGASA Observing Facility & Telecommunication System
 Coastal Radar High Frequency Doppler Radar (HFDR)

EXISTING CODAR/HFDR Planned

1. NETC & MASINLOC, ZAMBALES
2. BERONG & PUNTA BAJA, PALAWAN
3. LOBO, BATANGAS & CALAPAN, MINDORO
4. SORSOGON & ALLEN, N.SAMAR
5. S.LEYTE & SURIGAO
6. ZAMBOANGUITA & SIQUIJOR

The Weather and Climate Authority

USSV: Unmanned Sea Vessel (Wave Glider)
Measures ocean wave
height, MSLP, wind speed
and direction,
temperature, ocean
current

Acquired in 2018.
Test launch was done USSV glides into open ocean remotely
in Daet last 21-24 April controlled via satellite communication in
2018. central office in Quezon City.

USSV will be deployed

when a Typhoon is
approaching to get data
over the ocean.

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Lightning Detection System – 28 stations

The Weather and Climate Authority

 FORECASTING TOOLS
WEATHER MAP
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING

The Weather and Climate Authority

 FORECASTING TOOLS: Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Global Spectral Model (GSM) - Japan Weather and Research Forecasting

Resolution: ~28 km x 28 km
(WRF) Model -PAGASA
Forecast: 3- 11 days

Global Forecast System (GFS) -USA

- Resolution 12 x 12 km
- Resolution 3 x 3 km
- Forecast up to 3 days

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Forecast and Warning Products
1. Public weather forecasts
2. Shipping forecast
3. Aviation forecasts:
Airways and Terminal Forecast
SIGMET: TC, TSTM & Volcanic Ash
4. Weather Bulletins
a) Weather Advisory
b) Tropical Cyclone Alert
c) Tropical Cyclone Warning
d) Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping
5. Special Weather Forecast/Outlook
6. Forecast for Selected Local and Asian Cities
and Tourist Destination

The Weather and Climate Authority

 WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Enhancement of Early Warning Service
Color-coded Warning System
Hazards Signal/Warning
Heavy Rainfall
Advisory Alert Emergency

Thunderstorm
Information Watch Advisory

Tropical Cyclone
TCWS 1 TCWS 2 TCWS 3 TCWS 4 TCWS 5

Floods Flood Advisory/Bulletin

Storm Surge Severe Weather Bulletin/Storm Surge Bulletin

Gale Gale Warning

Seasonal Climate Outlook El Nino Advisory/La Nina Advisory
The Weather and Climate Authority
 HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING LEVELS
RAINFALL VALUES (mm) MEANING WARNING

Rainfall of 7.5 to 15 mm per Community AWARENESS

hour is expected to fall and
most likely to continue for the FLOODING is POSSIBLE in low lying
next 3 hours.
areas and near river channels

Rainfall of more than 15mm up to Community PREPAREDNESS

30mm within 1 hour has fallen or
expected to fall and most likely to
continue or if continuous rainfall for FLOODING is THREATHENING in low
the past 3 hours is more than 45mm lying areas and near river channels
to 65mm

Rainfall of more than 30mm within 1 Community RESPONSE

hour has fallen or expected to fall
and most likely to continue or if
continuous rainfall for the past 3
hours is more than 65mm
Emergency
SERIOUS FLOODING is EXPECTED
Take necessary precautionary measures

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Thunderstorm Warnings

website

website

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Gale Warning
When to issue
When winds strength is expected to reach 52 kph or
greater near the coast within the next6-12 hrs.
Lifting or Final Warning
When the wind force/ intensity has weakened and the final
warning will be issued after 6-12 hours.

The Weather and Climate Authority

Sample Gale Warning Delineation of Seaboard
Delineation of Seaboard

The Weather and Climate Authority

 TROPICAL CYCLONES
Super Typhoon LAWIN
P A R LINE

P
Super Typhoon YOLANDA
A
R

A
R L
I
N
E

L P A R LINE
I
N

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority
The Weather and Climate Authority
PAGASA
 Updated Tropical Cyclone Classification
INTENSITY
CATEGORY Kilometer per Nautical miles per
hour (kph) hour [knots] (kt)
1. Tropical Depression (TD) 61 or less 33 or less
2. Tropical Storm (TS) 62- 88 34 - 47

3. Severe Tropical Storm (STS) 89 - 117 48 - 63

4. Typhoon (TY) 118 - 220 64 - 120

5. Super Typhoon (STY) more than 220 more than 120

Based on the classification of tropical cyclones being used in the warning

systems intended for international users and exchanges among the Typhoon
Committee Members (Category 1-4, from Chapter 4, Typhoon Committee
Operational Manual, Meteorological Component, 2015 Ed.)

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Tropical Cyclone Warning System

• TC Information will
be provided when
over the WN Pacific
Ocean outside PAR
• TC Advisory over
green area.
• Severe Weather
Bulletin over the
Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR)
in red

The Weather and Climate Authority

Monthly Average Tropical Cyclone
Occurrences within the PAR
5

4
3.4 3.4 3.1
2.7
3
2.3

2 1.5 1.4
0.9
1 0.5
0.3 0.3 0.4

0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

The Weather and Climate Authority

 PROBABILITY CONE OR CONE OF UNCERTAINTY

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS)
LEAD TIME WINDS
TCWS (hrs) IMPACTS
on 1st issuance
(KPH)


#1 36 30 - 60 
Light damages to crops
Cancellation of sea travel

 Moderate to heavy damages

to crops and fish ponds
#2 24 61-120  Partial disruption of power
distribution and
communication
 Widespread disruption of
power & communication
#3 18 121-170  Road closure due to
uprooted trees and fallen
transmission line

 Roads closed due to fallen

#4 12 171-220 trees & collapsed bridges

 Total power disruption

more than Catastrophic damages

#5 12
220 (Delubyo)
The Weather and Climate Authority
 COMMUNICATION AND DISSEMINATION
Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment
assessing the possible impacts of the hazard to the community and is used
to determine the appropriate level of response action from the national to
the local government. HAZARD SPECIFIC, AREA FOCUS & TIME BOUND

The Weather and Climate Authority

Information Dissemination End Users/
Packages Channel Beneficiaries

Office of the Regional Centers

Tropical President
cyclone Local Government
advisories & Office of the General
Disaster Response Public
warnings Civil Defense Agencies

Quad-Media
Regional Centers
PAGASA Field
Tropical Local Government
Stations
Cyclone
Warnings for
Shipping Navigators

Aviation
Forecasts / Airline Pilots
warnings
The Weather and Climate Authority Warning Dissemination
 Information Dissemination

Conduct Press Conferences and press briefing in PAGASA

every 6 hours

The Weather and Climate Authority

 HOW IS THE WARNING/
BULLETIN DISSEMINATED ?

www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph @dost_pagasa
 Mobile Website:
Please visit

m.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather

Techniques Application and Meteorological Satellite Section, Weather Division

The Weather and Climate Authority
 Google Public Alerts

http://google.org/crisismap/philippines

The Weather and Climate Authority

 New PAGASA Website

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
The Weather and Climate Authority
 FORECASTING TOOLS USED

JMA Weather Satellite, 4:32AM

Jan 17, 2015

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Hourly Synoptic Reports

The Weather and Climate Authority

Based on critical analysis of all available real-time data:
- PAGASA Forecasters decided to maintain the STORM
intensity and TCWS#2 was issued at 5AM
- Recommended OP to advice the Pope to fly early to
Tacloban and leave at 1:00PM.

Pope Francis fly to Tacloban at 7:37 am &

depart from Tacloban at exactly 1:07 pm
PST to Manila instead of the originally
scheduled 5:00 pm PST.
After Pope’s departure, a Bombardier Global
Express plane carrying several Cabinet
secretaries skidded off the runway of Tacloban
The Weather and Climate Authority Airport.
 For any early warning system to succeed,
several components are necessary:
• Technology to detect and monitor the hazard;
• Communication systems to alert the public;
• Local leaders trained to make the right decisions;
• A public that is educated to react appropriately to warnings; and
• Response protocols — such as evacuation plans — prepared and
rehearsed well in advance of the threat.

All these elements must work well, both individually and in

harmony.

Failure in any one of these elements can mean failure of the whole
early warning system.
The Weather and Climate Authority
The Weather and Climate Authority
The Weather and Climate Authority