© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Distribution of Study Times

How long did you spend studying

statistics since our last meeting?
(Hand in on index cards;
no names, please)
3-1
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Probability

Chapter 3

3-2
 Learning Objectives
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Define Experiment, Outcome, Event,

Sample Space, & Probability
2. Explain How to Assign Probabilities
3. Use a Contingency Table, Venn
Diagram, or Tree to Find Probabilities
4. Describe & Use Probability Rules

3-3
 Thinking Challenge
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

What’s the probability of

getting a head on the
toss of a single fair
coin? Use a scale from
0 (no way) to 1 (sure
thing).
So toss a coin twice.
Do it! Did you get one
head & one tail?
What’s it all mean?

3-4
 Many Repetitions!
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Total Heads /
Number of Tosses
1.00

0.75

0.50

0.25

0.00
0 25 50 75 100 125
Number of Tosses
3-5
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiments,
Outcomes, & Events

3-6
 Experiments & Outcomes
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Experiment
 Process of Obtaining an Observation,
Outcome or Simple Event
2. Sample Point
 Most Basic Outcome of
an Experiment
3. Sample Space (S)
 Collection of All Possible Outcomes
3-7
 Outcome Examples
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a Coin, Note Face Head, Tail
Toss 2 Coins, Note Faces HH, HT, TH, TT
Select 1 Card, Note Kind 2, 2, ..., A (52)
Select 1 Card, Note Color Red, Black
Play a Football Game Win, Lose, Tie
Inspect a Part, Note Quality Defective, OK
Observe Gender Male, Female
3-8
 Outcome Properties
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiment: Observe
1. Mutually Exclusive Gender
 2 Outcomes Can Not
Occur at the Same Time
 Both Male & Female in

Same Person

2. Collectively Exhaustive
 1 Outcome in Sample
Space Must Occur
 Male or Female

© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

3-9
 Events
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Any Collection of Sample Points

(outcomes)
Simple Event
 Collection of outcomes that’s simple to
describe
Compound Event
 Collection of outcomes that is described
as unions or intersections of other events

3 - 10
 Event Examples
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.

Event Outcomes in Event
Sample Space HH, HT, TH, TT
1 Head & 1 Tail HT, TH
Heads on 1st Coin HH, HT
At Least 1 Head HH, HT, TH
Heads on Both HH
3 - 11
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Sample Space

3 - 12
 Visualizing
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Sample Space

1. Listing
 S = {Head, Tail}

2. Venn Diagram
3. Contingency Table
4. Decision Tree Diagram

3 - 13
 Venn Diagram
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.

Tail Event
TH
HH HT
Outcome
TT
S
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} Sample Space
3 - 14
 Contingency Table
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.

nd
2 Coin
st
1 Coin Head Tail Total
Simple
Event Head HH HT HH, HT
Outcome
(Head on
Tail TH TT TH, TT
1st Coin)
Total HH, TH HT, TT S

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} Sample Space

3 - 15
 Tree Diagram
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Note Faces.

H HH
H
T HT
Outcome
H TH
T
T TT
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} Sample Space
3 - 16
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Compound Events

3 - 17
 Forming
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Compound Events

1. Intersection
 Outcomes in Both Events A and B
 ‘AND’ Statement
  Symbol (i.e., A  B)
2. Union
 Outcomes in Either Events A or B or Both
 ‘OR’ Statement
  Symbol (i.e., A  B)
3 - 18
 Special Events
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Null Event Null Event

 Club & Diamond on
1 Card Draw

2. Complement of Event
 For Event A, All
Events Not In A: A’

3. Mutually Exclusive Event

 Events Do Not Occur
Simultaneously

3 - 19
 Complement of Event
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Example
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color
& Suit.
Black
Sample
Space:
2R, 2R,

2B, ..., AB S

Event Black: Complement of Event Black,
2B, 2B, ..., AB Black ’: 2R, 2R, ..., AR, AR
3 - 20
 Mutually Exclusive Events
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Example
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Suit.

Sample
 Outcomes
in Event
Space: Heart:
2, 3, 4,


2, 2, 2,

..., A S ..., A

Event Spade:
Events  & Mutually Exclusive
2, 3, 4, ..., A
3 - 21
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Probabilities

3 - 22
 What is Probability?
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Numerical Measure 1 Certain

of Likelihood that
Event Will Occur
 P(Event)
 P(A)
.5
 Prob(A)
2. Lies Between 0 & 1
3. Sum of outcome
probabilities is 1 0 Impossible

3 - 23
 Exercise 3.1a
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Five Events
P(E1)=P(E4)=P(E5)=.1
P(E2)=.2
P(E3)=??

3 - 24
 Exericse 3.5
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Skipping unless you have questions

3 - 25
 Exercise 3.8
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Box with 2 blue, 3 red marbles

Draw two (without replacement)
Pr(A:{two blue})
Pr(C:{two red})
Pr(B:{red and blue})

3 - 26
 Exercise 3.9
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Repeat 3.8 100 times

Calculate probabilities of A, B, C
Should these equal values calculated
above?

3 - 27
 Exercise 3.22
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Argyle sock matching, two similar pairs

Fact: matched wrong far more often
than right
Question: bad light and bad luck? Or bad
intentions?

3 - 28
 Compound Event
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Probability

1. Numerical Measure of Likelihood that

Compound Event Will Occur
2. Can Often Use Contingency Table
 2 Variables Only
3. Formula Methods
 Additive Rule
 Conditional Probability Formula
 Multiplicative Rule
3 - 29
 Event Probability Using
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Contingency Table

Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 B1) P(A1 B2) P(A1)
A2 P(A2 B1) P(A2 B2) P(A2)
Total P(B1) P(B2) 1

Joint Probability Marginal (Simple) Probability

3 - 30
 Contingency Table
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Example
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color
& Suit.
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2/52 2/52 4/52
Non-Ace 24/52 24/52 48/52 P(Ace)

Total 26/52 26/52 52/52

P(Red) P(Ace AND Red)

3 - 31
 Thinking Challenge
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

What’s the Probability?

P(A) = Event
P(D) = Event C D Total
A 4 2 6
P(C  B) =
B 1 3 4
P(A  D) = Total 5 5 10
P(B  D) =
3 - 32
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Additive Rule

3 - 33
 Additive Rule
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Used to Get Compound Probabilities for

Union of Events
2. P(A OR B) = P(A  B)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B)
3. For Mutually Exclusive Events:
P(A OR B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)

3 - 34
 Additive Rule Example
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color

& Suit.
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

P(Ace OR Black) = P(Ace) + P(Black) - P(Ace  Black)

4 26 2 28
   
52 52 52 52
3 - 35
 Thinking Challenge
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Using the Additive Rule, What’s the

Probability?
Event
P(A  D) = Event C D Total
A 4 2 6
P(B  C) =
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10

3 - 36
 Solution*
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Using the Additive Rule, the Probabilities

Are:
P(A  D) = P(A) + P(D) - P(A  D)
6 5 2 9
   
10 10 10 10

P(B  C) = P(B) + P(C) - P(B  C)

4 5 1 8
   
10 10 10 10
3 - 37
 Exercise 3.3: Roulette
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

A: {odd number}
B:{black number}
C:{number<18}

(Skip unless questions…)

3 - 38
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Conditional Probability

3 - 39
 Conditional Probability
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Event Probability Given that Another

Event Occurred
2. Revise Original Sample Space to
Account for New Information
 Eliminates Certain Outcomes

3. P(A | B) = P(A and B)

P(B)
3 - 40
 Example

What’s the probability that a card drawn from a full

deck will be a spade?
Your toddler, who knows colors but can’t tell clubs
from spades, looks at the card and says it’s
black
 Now what’s the probability?
 That’s P(club | black)

Note equivalence: same as probability of drawing a

club from a deck that has only clubs and spades
 Conditional Probability
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Using Venn Diagram
Black ‘Happens’:
Eliminates All
Black
Other Outcomes

Ace
Black
S (S)
Event (Ace AND Black)

3 - 42
 Conditional Probability
Using Contingency Table
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color

& Suit.
Color
Type Red Black Total Revised
Sample
Ace 2 2 4 Space
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
P(Ace AND Black) 2 / 52 2
P(Ace | Black) =  
P(Black) 26 / 52 26
3 - 43
 Statistical Independence
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Event Occurrence
Does Not Affect Probability of Another Event
 P(A | B) = P(A)
Example: Toss 1 Coin Twice (independent)
 P(second toss H)= ½
 P(second toss H | first toss H) = ½
Example: Draw 2 cards from a deck (dependent)
 P(second card spade | first card spade) = 12/51
 P(second card spade) = ¼*12/51+ ¾* 13/51
=(12+39)/(4*51)= ¼

3 - 44
 Tree Diagram
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Experiment: Select 2 Pens from 20 Pens:

14 Blue & 6 Red. Don’t Replace.
P(R|R) = 5/19 R
P(R) = 6/20
R
P(B|R) = 14/19 B
Dependent!
P(R|B) = 6/19 R
B
P(B) = 14/20
P(B|B) = 13/19 B
3 - 45
 Thinking Challenge
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Using the Table Then the Formula, What’s

the Probability?
Event
Pr(C)=
Event C D Total
P(B|C) = A 4 2 6
P(C|B) = B 1 3 4
Are C & B Total 5 5 10
Independent?
3 - 46
 Solution*
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Using the Formula, the Probabilities Are:

P(C  B) 1 / 10 1
P(C | B) =  
P(B) 4 / 10 4
5 1
P(C) =  Dependent
10 4

3 - 47
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Multiplicative Rule

3 - 48
 Multiplicative Rule
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Used to Get Compound Probabilities for

Intersection of Events
 Called Joint Events
2. P(A and B) = P(A  B)
= P(A)*P(B|A)
= P(B)*P(A|B)
3. For Independent Events:
P(A and B) = P(A  B) = P(A)*P(B)
3 - 49
 Multiplicative Rule
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Example
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color
& Suit.
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

P(Ace AND Black) = P(Ace)  P(Black | Ace)

 4  2  2 
       
 52  4  52 
3 - 50
 Thinking Challenge
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Using the Multiplicative Rule, What’s the

Probability?
Event
P(C  B) =
Event C D Total
P(B  D) = A 4 2 6
P(A  B) = B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10

3 - 51
 Solution*
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Using the Multiplicative Rule, the

Probabilities Are:
P(C  B) = P(C) P(B| C) = 5/10 * 1/5 = 1/10

P(B  D) = P(B)  P(D|B) = 4/10 * 3/4 = 3/10

P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B| A)  0

3 - 52
 Independence Revisited
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

If A is independent of B, B is independent of A
 P(A and B) = P(B|A)P(A)=P(A|B)P(B)
 P(A|B)=P(A)  P(B|A)P(A) = P(A)P(B) P(B|A)=P(B)
Equivalence of the two independence definitions:
P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B) if and only if P(B|A) = P(B)
 P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A)
 If P(B|A) = P(B), then P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
 If P(B|A) != P(B), then P(A and B) != P(A)P(B)

3 - 53
 Exercise 3.69

P({A: African American})=.14

P({B: speed>65})=.98
P(A|B)=.15
P(A| {C:stopped for speeding})=.35
P(A and B)=
Is anything wrong with these statistics?
Are A and B independent?
What should you compare to decide if there’s
racial discrimination by police?
 Exercise 3.69 Solution
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Compare Pr(C|A&B) to Pr(C|B)

 Are African American speeders more likely than the
general population of speeders to be pulled over?
Pr(A&B|C)Pr(C)=Pr(A&B&C) = Pr(C|A&B)Pr(A&B)
 Thus Pr(C|A&B)=Pr(A&B|C)Pr(C)/Pr(A&B)
=Pr(A|C)Pr(C)/Pr(A|B)Pr(B) (since CB)
Pr(C|B)Pr(B)=Pr(C)Pr(B|C)
 Thus Pr(C|B) = Pr(B|C)Pr(C)/Pr(B)
=Pr(C)/Pr(B) (since CB)
Hence Pr(C|A&B)=Pr(C|B)Pr(A|C)/Pr(A|B)
 But Pr(A|C) > Pr(A|B), so Pr(C|A&B)>Pr(C|B)

3 - 55
 Random Samples
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

All subsets of size n are equally likely

3 - 56
 Permutations
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

How many ways to award gold, silver

bronze medals?
Sequences of size n from a population of
size N (without replacement)?
 N possibilities for first item
 N-1 possibilities for next
 N-2 for next
N N!
Pn  N N  1N  2 N  n  1 
3 - 57
N  n !
 Combinations
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

How many ways to select three first-prize winners?

How many subsets of size n from a population of size N?
 Sequences as before
 But some sequences define same subset
 {A, B, C} = {A, C, B} = {B, C, A} = {B, A, C} = {C, A, B} = {C, B, A}
 How many sequences for each subset of size n?
 Permutations of n things chosen n at a time
N!
 N  PnN  N  n ! N!
  n  
 n  Pn n! N  n !n!
3 - 58 0!
 Exericse 3.99
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

10 questions; 5, randomly selected, will be on exam

Students prepares 7 of them
P(prepared for all 5)?
P(prepared for < 3)?
P(prepared for 4)?

3 - 59
 Let’s Make a Deal
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

3 doors; 1 car, 2 goats

 You strongly prefer to win a car!
Pick a door
Host will always open another door, revealing a goat
Host will always offer to let you switch to third door
Should you stay, switch, or not care?
Follow book’s approach: sample spaces before and after host
reveals a goat
Alternative: think in terms of conditional probabilities
 P(your initial choice is a goat)
 P(3rd door is a goat | initial choice goat)
 P(3rd door is a goat | initial choice car)
 P(3rd door is a goat)

3 - 60
 Conclusion
© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

1. Defined Experiment, Outcome, Event,

Sample Space, & Probability
2. Explained How to Assign Probabilities
3. Used a Contingency Table, Venn
Diagram, or Tree to Find Probabilities
4. Described & Used Probability Rules

3 - 61
 End of Chapter

Any blank slides that follow are

blank intentionally.