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Hysni Kucuku
hysnikucuku@gmail.com
HYRJE :
Teknika q jane perdorur ne drtimin e projektit sht library(Rcmdr) per therritjen e te dhenave Prkufizim Projekti tregon ; 1prosin e teorin e rradheve 2numrin e kanaleve t shrbimit , vetit ergodike e proseve lindje- vdekje , modeli M/G/1 , kohzgjatje e rradhs .
Zgjedhja e klienteve
FIFO (first in, first out ) LIFO( last in , first out ) SIRO(service in randon order)- klienti q do t shrbehet zgjidhet rastesisht nga rradha PRI (priority)- klientet q vine kan nj shkall prioriteti GB -raste t tjera
T paraqitura kto n rend rrits kjo sepse nmodelet e hapura gjendjet e mundshme t sistemit jan:
Modeli
M/G/1
(S+1), ( paraardhst S ,
2-
q vijn gjat kohs s shrbimit t klientvet n rastin kur n prfundim t shrbimit t klientit
Shnojm I(
Nga del se
I(
Kohezgjatja e radhes
N kt rast kemi t bjm me n.r T vlerat e scils ( r=1,2,) prbjn nj process stokastik t Markovit stacionar , me t cilin bashksia e indekseve t gjendjeve t mundshme t tij sht bashksie pafundme e vazhdueshme kur vlera e mundshme A ose B i prkasin nj bashksie t pafundme t vazhdueshme . Kshtu sht I barabart me:
a) Zero ,kur klienti i (r+1) hyn n rradh pasi t jet larguar klienti i r , pra kur
.
b)
Prej nga P P P Ku ( Kshtu kur P P sht nj vler vler e caktuar e n.r T ndrsa t(t>0) sht nj vler fardo . sht vler koresponduese e gjendjes
te sht vler koresponduese e gjndjes kto probabilitete formojn matricn e tranzicionit t sistemit .
Modeli M/M/1
Ky model sht
Pra kemi t bjm me nj model q bazohet n proesin e puasonit n kuptim q :qoft mbrritjet qoft koht e sherbimit jan t shprndara eksponeciale me parametra A(mbrritjet) me mesatare t ktyre intervaleve me mesatare t ktyre sherbimeve
B (kohzgjatja e shrbimit )
klienti
1.4.2010 koha e mberritjes 12:00 12:00 12:02 12:04 12:04 12:04 12:09 12:12 12:20 12:22 12:26 12:32 12:33 12:36 koha e shebimit 2 1 3 5 4 0.25 6 2 4 3 1 0.1 0.15 1 koha e mberritjes 12:00 12:00 12:01 12:06 12:13 12:18 12:18 12:22 12:23 12:27 12:29 12:37 12:40 12:44 12:46
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
klienti
12.4.2010 koha e mberritjes 12:00 12:00 12:01 12:15 12:18 12:23 12:24 12:28 12:33 12:33 12:35 12:35 12:37 12:44 12:45 koha e shebimit 4 3 7 4 4 8 1 0.40 3 1 3 2 0.25 1 2 koha e mberritjes 12:00 12:00 12:01 12:01 12:04 12:11 12:11 12:13 12:19 12:20 12:25 12:33 12:53 12:55
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
klienti
16.4.2010 koha e mberritjes 12:00 12:00 12:02 12:13 12:18 12:18 12:25 12:28 12:29 12:31 12:40 12:40 12:40 12:53 koha e shebimit 1 0.15 4 9 8 0.40 1 1 3 1 0.25 2 4 0.30 koha e mberritjes 12:00 12:00 12:03 12:14 12:20 12:25 12:26 12:28 12:32 12:37 12:37 12:41 12:43 12:43
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Ndertimin e histograms do ta bejme me ane te pakets library(Rcmdr) dhe nga aty bjm importimin nga excel
N baz t t dhnave ndrtojm histogramen e shperdarjes dhe nga forma e tij ngrejm hipotezn : q paraqet gjatsin e intervaleve t mbrritjeve , pa shprdarje eksponeciale Fillimisht po logaritim vleren e parametrit t vetm t ksaj shprdarje
[1,2[ 50
[2,3[ 48
[3,4[ 44
[4,5[ 30
[5,6[ 18
[6,7[ 16
[7,8[ 15
[8,9[ 15
[9,10[ [10,11[ 12 6
[11,12[ [12,14[ 11 6
[17,+ 5
Llogaritjet ne R:
>plot(x,m,type="o",col="red")
10
15
20
40 x
60
80
>hist(x)
20
40 x
60
80
>hist(m)
Histogram of m
6 Frequency 0 1 2 3 4 5
10 m
15
20
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = 5
= Gjetja e probabiliteteve 1 ) > f<-function + (x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=0 ,upper=1) 0.2211992 with absolute error < 2.5e-15
2 ) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=1 ,upper=2) 0.1722701 with absolute error < 1.9e-15 3) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x)
> integrate(f, lower=2 ,upper=3) 0.1341641 with absolute error < 1.5e-15 4) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x)
> integrate(f, lower=3 ,upper=4) 0.1044871 with absolute error < 1.2e-15 5) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x)
> integrate(f, lower=4 ,upper=5) 0.08137464 with absolute error < 9e-16 6) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=5 ,upper=6) 0.06337464 with absolute error < 7e-16 7) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=6 ,upper=7) 0.04935622 with absolute error < 5.5e-16 8) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=7 ,upper=8) 0.03843866 with absolute error < 4.3e-16 9) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=8 ,upper=9) 0.02993606 with absolute error < 3.3e-16 10) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x)
> integrate(f, lower=9 ,upper=10) 0.02331423 with absolute error < 2.6e-16
11) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=10 ,upper=11) 0.01815714 with absolute error < 2e-16 12) f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=11 ,upper=12) 0.01414079 with absolute error < 1.6e-16 13) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=12 ,upper=14) 0.01958968 with absolute error < 2.2e-16 14) f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=14 ,upper=17) 0.01593315 with absolute error < 1.8e-16 15) > f<-function(x)0.25*exp(-0.25*x) > integrate(f, lower=17 ,upper=+) -0.1210710 with absolute error < 1.3e-15
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