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Serii Teritoriale: Capitolul X
Serii Teritoriale: Capitolul X
SERII TERITORIALE
'(),1,5($,3$57,&8/$5,7
,/(6(5
IILOR TERITORIALE
Seriile teritoriale QXPLWH L VHULL GH VSD LX VXQW LUXUL GH YDORUL DOH XQRU FDUDFWHULVWLFL
VWDWLVWLFHRUGRQDWHvQUDSRUWFXXQLW
LOHDGPLQLVWUDWLYHVDXGLYL]LXQLOHWHULWRULDOHGHFDUHDSDU LQ
Termenii unei astfel de serii sunt fie indicatori DEVROX LFHVHRE LQSULQFXPXODUHDvQFDGUXO
ILHF UHL XQLW L DGPLQLVWUDWLY-WHULWRULDOH D WXWXURU HOHPHQWHORU PDQLIHVW ULORU UHIHULWRDUH OD
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DUD
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care se
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Romniei.
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GLVFHUQ PkQW D DFHORU LQGLFDWRUL FDUH DX FDSDFLWDWHD GH D H[SULPD VSHFLILFLWDWHD YDULD LHL vQ VSD LX
LORUDQDOL]DWHvQ
UL
SDWUX
Tabelul 10.1.
7U
DUD
Bulgaria
Polonia
Romnia
Ungaria
PIB
(mrd.
$)
12,3
118
35,5
43,7
Q SULPHOH GRX FR
WXULDOHXQRUHFRQRPLLvQWUDQ]L LHvQ
Export de
P
UIXULL
servicii
(mrd $)
5,2
29,4
9,4
13,8
PIB/loc.
($)
1.455
3.057
1.567
3.872
Formarea
EUXW
GH
capital fix
(% din PIB)
15,3
17,1
21,8
20,4
Ocuparea
Puterea de
IRU HLGH
FXPS UDUHD
PXQF
(%)
88,2
84,6
90,1
89,4
monedei
ID
GH
61,7
78,2
75,6
77,9
loane ale tabelului 10.1. sunt prezentate serii teritoriale formate din
LQGLFDWRUL DEVROX L GHWHUPLQD L SHQWUX ILHFDUH DU SURGXVXO LQWHUQ EUXW L H[SRUWXO GH P UIXUL L
VHUYLFLL $FHWL LQGLFDWRUL DU SHUPLWH R DQXPLW DQDOL] D YDULD LHL vQ VSD LX GD
SX LQ LQWHUHVDQWH SHQWUX F GLPHQVLXQLOH ILHF UHL
r rezultatele sunt
Vezi Short-term economic indicator transition economies, OECD CCET, Paris, nr. 4/1996.
LVRFLDOHGLQFHOHSDWUX
UL'HVLJXUDUILSXWXWILDWUDLLDO LLQGLFDWRULSHQWUXDDYHDRLPDJLQHL
PDLH[DFW
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-sociale.
termenilor, ceea ce
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omogenitatea
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ea de la o unitate administrativ-WHULWRULDO
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VWDWLVWLF
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a seriilor teritoriale se face cu ajutorul cartogramei sau al
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observat al caracteristicii n perimetrul administrativ-WHULWRULDOUHVSHFWLYLvQFRQFRUGDQ FXWLSXULOH
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-teritoriale a
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- ,QGLFDWRULDEVROX L
- Indicatori relativi
WXLW
GLQP
a caracteristicii
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- prin
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8QLWDWHDWHULWRULDO
Nivelul caracteristicii
1;
y1
2;
y2
...i;
...yi;
...
...
j; ...n
yj; ...yn
FDUHH[SULP QLYHOXO
i = 1, n . Pe baza
WHUPHQLORU VH WUHFH OD HIHFWXDUHD FRPSDUD LLORU vQ SULILO WHULWRULDO Q P ULPH DEVROXW VH RE LQH
ED]DUHOD LHL
yj/i = yi - yj.
(10.1)
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yi/j = yj - yi.
(10.1')
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LWHULWRULDOHILHSULQVF GHUHILHSULQUDSRUWDUH
altceva.
n acest context, se trece la utilizarea indicatorilor relativi. Indicii teritoriali
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yi
iyi/j= y j L
(10.2)
yj
iyj/ i = y i
(10.2')
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HVWH
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-GHSHSR]L LDXQLW
%
y
i/ j
y 1 y j
yj
j/ i
y j y i
yi
j:
100 = 100 i i / j 1
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y
LLWHULWRULDOH
LLWHULWRULDOH
i:
100 = 100(i j / i 1)
poate fi deseoULDSUHFLDW
(10.3)
(10.3')
GH PHGLH $OHJHUHD WHUPHQLORU GH FRPSDUD LH
SHQWUXWHUPHQLLXQHLVHULLWHULWRULDOHvQVXLQLYHOXOPHGLXPHGLDQDVDXPRGXOVHULHL1RWkQGFX
nivelul mediu,
UHOD LLOHGHPDLVXVGHYLQGHH[HPSOX
y)
y i / y = y i y ,
(10.1)
yi
y
10.2)
i y i/ j =
y i / y = 100(i y i/ y 1).
(10.3)
Nivelul mediu al seriei teritoriale (y WUHEXLH GHWHUPLQDW vQ IXQF LH GH QDWXUD WHUPHQLORU
3HQWUXRVHULHIRUPDW GLQP ULPLDEVROXWHVHVWDELOHWHPHGLDDULWPHWLF VLPSO GDUHDWLQGHV ILH
OLSVLW GHYDORDUHDDQDOLWLF vQFRQWH[WXOGHWHUPLQ ULLFRPSOH[HDYDULD LHLvQVSD LX
1LYHOXO PHGLX DO VHULLORU WHULWRULDOH DOF WXLWH GLQ P ULPL UHODWLYH GH VWUXFWXU VDX GH
LQWHQVLWDWHVHFDOFXOHD] FDPHGLLDULWPHWLFHSRQGHUDWH
WXLWH GLQ P ULPL UHODWLYH GH GLQDPLF QLYHOXO PHGLX SRDWH IL
termenii seriei).
Un aspect distinct al analizei seriilor teritoriale l constituie caracterizarea gradului de
XQLIRUPLWDWH VDX GH GLIRUPLWDWH D UHSDUWL LHL vQ VSD LX $FHVW DVSHFW VH H[SULP SULQ coeficientul
2
UHSDUWL LHL WHULWRULDOH
aplicabil numai seriilor cu termeni direct nsumabili, deci, numai seriilor
DOF WXLWH GLQ P ULPL DEVROXWH Q SUHDODELO VH GHWHUPLQ P ULPLOH UHODWLYH GH VWUXFWXU
pentru
fiecare din termenii seriei.
([LVW PDL PXOWH SURFHGHH GH GHWHUPLQDUH D DFHVWXL LQGLFDWRU $VWIHl, statisticianul italian
&RUUDGR *LQL D SURSXV XWLOL]DUHD U G FLQLL S WUDWH GLQ VXPD S WUDWHORU SRQGHULORU FHORU Q XQLW
C=
g2i ,
L
LL L
(10.4)
unde i = 1, n.
1
n,
HJDOH vQ FROHFWLYLWDWH DGLF UHSHWL LD WHULWRULDO HVWH DEVROXW XQLIRUP UH]XOW &
variabila cerFHWDW
LQIHULRDUH D FRHILFLHQWXOXL *LQL vQ UDSRUW FX QXP UXO Q DO XQLW
, LDU GDF
LORU DGPLQLVWUDWLY
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WHULWRULDO GLIHULW GH H[HPSOX FRPSDUD LL vQWUH
L DX SRQGHUL
1
n
-teritoriale,
L FX RUJDQL]DUH
corectare a formuOHL*LQLDVWIHOFDLQGLFDWRUXOV
LDYDORULvQLQWHUYDOXO>@LQGLIHUHQWFkWHXQLW
n g2i 1
n 1
C' =
)D
LDU
de mai jos:
(10.5)
GH DOWH YDULDQWH GH FRUHFWDUH D FRHILFLHQWXOXL *LQL IRUPXOD SUH]LQW DYDQWDMXO
0> C
2
>
1.
FRHILFLHQWDOFRQFHQW
VXEQXPHOHGHLQGLFHDOUHSDUWL LHLWHULWRULDOH
ULLWHULWRULDOH
Struck R., Zur Messung der Konzentration, Statistische Praxis, Berlin, nr.4/1965.
sau
QHFHVLW
LOHVWDWLVWLFLL
&RQVLGHUkQG FROHFWLYLWDWHD VWDWLVWLF FD XQ VLVWHP LDU JUXSHOH vQ FD]XO DFHVWD XQLW
administrativ-WHULWRULDOH FD VW
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WHULWRULDOH)RORVLQGQRWD LLOHGHSkQ DFXPUHOD LDGHFDOFXOHVWH
E = gi ,
2
(10.6)
unde i = 1, n.
(QHUJLDLQIRUPD LRQDO
g2i 1n
1 1n
E =
(10.6)
UL SUH]LQW
FROHFWLYLWDWHDFHUFHWDW
$SOLFD LD)RORVLQGGDWHOHGLQSULPHOHGRX FRORDQHDOHWDEHOXOXLV VHDQDOL]H]HL
FRPHQWH]HFRHILFLHQWXOGHFRQFHQWUDUHWHULWRULDO D3,%LDH[SRUWXOXLGHP UIXULLVHUYLFLLUHDOL]DW
GHFHOHSDWUX
UL
Rezolvare
, 3URGXVXO LQWHUQ EUXW UHDOL]DW vQ FHOH Q
FRWHOHS U LJLDOH
6HYDREVHUYDF
g2i
ULORUVXQWvQRUGLQH
= 0, 3902
gi = 1, 00 2ULFHHURDUHGHFDOFXODIHFWHD]
FRHILFLHQWXOGHFRQFHQWUDUH
5H]XOW
2
n gi 1
4 0 ,39021
=
= 0, 4324
n 1
41
C' =
ceea ce constituie o valoare destul de apropiat GH SXQFWXO PHGLDQ DO LQWHUYDOXOXL vQ FDUH
poate lua valori acest indicator.
6HDSUHFLD] F 3,%QXHVWHWRFPDLXQLIRUPUHSDUWL]DW
2 UHSDUWL LH FHYD PDL XQLIRUP SUH]LQW vQV H[SRUWXO GH P UIXUL L VHUYLFLL SHQWUX FDUH
C'=0,3677.
Doar diQ FRPSDUDUHD FHORU GRL FRHILFLHQ L GH FRQFHQWUDUH L I
alta.
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GD=
X
PI B
100
(10.7)
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GHP UIXULLVHUYLFLL
ntr-DGHY U3RORQLDL5RPkQLDSUH]LQW
BulgarLDFKLDUGHS HWH
RGHVFKLGHUHGH
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DFHVWRU
UL
Onicescu O.,
6WDWLVWLF QU
FRPSRQHQW
D XQXL EDURPHWUX
$81,7
,/25
&RPSDUD LLOH vQ SURILO WHULWRULDO L HODERUDUHD GH FODVDPHQWH DOH XQLW
LORU DGPLQLVWUDWLY
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LQWHUQD LRQDOvQYHGHUHDP VXU ULLGHFDODMHORULDHODERU ULLVWUDWHJLHLRSWLPHGHGH]YROWDUH
Pornind de la faptXO F
VLQJXU vQVXLUH D FROHFWLYLW
YDULD LD XQXL VLQJXU LQGLFDWRU HVWH RULFkQG VXVFHSWLELO GH D IL FRPSOHWDW FULWLFDW XQHRUL FKLDU
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DFHOHLDLFROHFWLYLW
L
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dezvROW
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L DGPLQLVWUDWLY
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Q DFHVW FRQWH[W
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XQLW
LORU DGPLQLVWUDWLY
-teritoriale presupune
SDUFXUJHUHDXUP WRDUHORUHWDSHGHOXFUX
IRORVL L
vQ
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FODVDPHQWXOXL
ULLXQLW
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ct mai
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3HQWUX XUP WRDUHOH HWDSH GH OXFUX V-DX IRUPXODW vQ OLWHUDWXUD VWDWLVWLF PDL PXOWH metode,
unele din acestea fiind prezentate n continuare.
Metoda rangurilor SUHVXSXQH DWULEXLUHD GH UDQJXUL ILHF UHL XQLW L DGPLQLVWUDWLY-teritoriale,
vQPRGVXFFHVLYvQIXQF LHGHILHFDUHLQGLFDWRUFXSULQVvQDQDOL] XQLWDWHDFXSHUIRUPDQ
FDOLWDWLY
fiind numerotate cu ranguri tot mai mari, rangul cel mai mare (egal cu n VHULHL FHUFHWDWH ILLQG DWULEXLW XQLW
QXP
L DO
UHL
variabile.
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n DWULEXLW
ULL
m.
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GLQWUH XQLW
L SULQ vQORFXLUHD ORU FX R SURJUHVLH DULWPHWLF DYkQG UD LD SULPD QLYHODUH DUH
loc la
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L
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XQLW
O serie de metode matriceale5 HYLW DFHVWH QHDMXQVXUL FDOFXOkQG GLVWDQ D GLQWUH HOHPHQWHOH
LOH DGPLQLVWUDWLY-WHULWRULDOH XQXL VSD LX m
- dimensional, unde m HVWH QXP UXO
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LOH
administrativ-teritoriale consecutive.
Aplicarea metodelor matriceale presupune utilizarea calculatorului electronic atunci cnd
QXP UXOnDOXQLW LORUWHULWRULDOHLQXP UXOm) al caracteristicilor este mai mare.
5H]XOWDWHODIHOGHYDORURDVHSRWILRE LQXWHvQV LSULQDSOLFDUHDXQRU metode mai simple,
6
L(OHSUHVXSXQGHRELFHLFRQVWLWXLUHDXQHL
L ILFWLYH DOH F UHL FDUDFWHULVWLFL SUH]LQW QLYHOHOH PD[LPH REVHUYDWH vQ FROHFWLYLWDWHD UHDO
ILHFDUH FDUDFWHULVWLF DIODW vQ VWXGLX L VWDELOLUHD XQXL SURFHGHX GH DJUHJDUH D LQIRUPD LLORU
RE LQXWH SHQWUX ILHFDUH XQLWDWH UHDO &X FkW UH]XOWDWXO HVWH PDL PLF GHFkW XQLWDWHD FX DWkW GLVWDQ D
vQ VSD LX P GLPHQVLRQDO ID
GH PD[LPXO SRVLELO HVWH PDL PDUH L GHFL XQLWDWHD WHULWRULDO HVWH
PDLSX LQGH]YROWDW
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element al coleFWLYLW
metodei bazate pe
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de coordonare7
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caracteristLF
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-un indice
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administrativ - teritoriale,
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-340.
Rezolvare
I. Metoda rangurilor
Tabelul 10.2.
DUD
5DQJXULDWULEXLWHGXS
PIB/
locuitor
Bulgaria
Polonia
Romnia
Ungaria
Formarea
EUXW
SHUIRUPDQ
D
IRU HLGH
PXQF
capitalului fix
4
3
1
2
4
2
3
1
OD
Scor
Rangul
final
15
10
8
7
4
3
2
1
Ocuparea Puterea de
3
4
1
2
FXPS
UDUH
a monedei
4
1
3
2
3RWULYLW DFHVWHL PHWRGH DSOLFDWH OD XQ QXP U OLPLWDW GH LQGLFDWRUL FRQMXQFWXUDOL VLWXD LD
economico-VRFLDO
GLQ DU VLWXHD] 5RPkQLD SH ORFXO GXS 8QJDULD L vQDLQWHD 3RORQLHL LDU
%XOJDULDRFXS ORFXODOSDWUXOHDvQDQXO
,,0HWRGDGLVWDQ HLUHODWLYH
Tabelul 10.3.
DUD
'LVWDQ DID
'LVWDQ D
Ocuparea
medie
Rang
final
0,663
0,873
0,791
0,981
4
2
3
1
PIB/loc.
Formarea
0,356
0,790
0,405
1,000
capitalului fix
0,702
0,784
1,000
0,936
EUXW
Bulgaria
Polonia
Romnia
Ungaria
GHXQLWDWHDSHUIRUPDQWDOD
D
IRU HLGH
PXQF
0,979
0,939
1,000
0,992
Puterea de
FXPS
UDUH
a monedei
0,789
1,000
0,967
0,996
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GH
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LFRPSOH[HFXVWUXFWXULGLIHULWHGHOD
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mijloace tehnice nu permite stabilireDFXXXULQ DXQLW LLWHULWRULDOHMXGH DU HWFFDUHDUSXWHD
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cele
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L
j,
i i/ j =
yi
yj
(10.8)
yj
yi
(10.8)
i j/ i =
i yi / j
i yj / i = 1 .
(10.9)
7UHEXLH PHQ LRQDW IDSWXO F vQ DQDOL]D HFRQRPLF QX VH XWLOL]HD]
VHQVXUL DOH FRPSDUD LLORU
teritoriale.
FRQFRPLWHQW DPEHOH
ULLLGHSR]L LD
LL vQ VSD LX FDUH VW OD ED]D HODERU ULL LQGLFLORU WHULWRULDOL QX HVWH
VXU
IHOGHHILFLHQWFRUHOD LFDFHLFURQRORJLFLLDUDQDOL]HOHvQSURILOWHULWRULDOVXQWPXOWPDLODELOH
Q IXQF LH GH QDWXUD YDULDELOHL DQDOL]DWH FRPSOH[ IDFWRULDO H[WHQVLY VDX IDFWRULDO
LQWHQVLY SUHFXP L GXS FDUDFWHUXO RPRJHQ VDX HWHURJHQ DO HOHPHQWHORU GLQ FROHFWLYLW
LOH
lcul.
Astfel, o YDULDELO FRPSOH[ DERUGDW vQ SURILO WHULWRULDO SRDWH IL FDUDFWHUL]DW SULQ
compararea nivelului totalizator ( y i ) dintr-R DU VDX UHJLXQH L FX FHO y j GLQ FHDODOW DU
regiune. Deci:
y
Ii/ j
yi
yj
x if i
x jf j
f
i/ j
(10.10)
FX QLYHO GLUHFW vQVXPDELO FROHFWLYLW
L FX
fi
fj
(10.12)
Atunci cnd factorul cantitativ este direct nsumabil, factorul calitativVHPDQLIHVW ODQLYHOXO
x
FROHFWLYLW LL FHUFHWDWH FD R P ULPH PHGLH DD FXP V-D VXEOLQLDW L vQ FDSLWROXO DQWHULRU LDU
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I i/ j
xi
xj
(10.13)
ntruct x = y /
x
i/ j
xi
xj
yi
fi
fSHQWUXILHFDUH DU
yj
= I i / j : I fi / j
fj
(10.14)
6H YHULILF SULQ XUPDUH OHJ WXUD GLQWUH YDULDELOD FRPSOH[ L IDFWRULL V L QX QXPDL vQ
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Ii/ j
x if i
x if i
(10.15)
respectiv:
I
f
i/ j
x jf i
x jf i
(10.15)
I i/ j
x if i
x jf i
(10.16)
XQGHSRQGHULOHVXQWFHOHVSHFLILFHXQLW
x
i/ j
x if j
x jf j
LLLL
(10.16)
FX SRQGHUL FDUDFWHULVWLFH SHQWUX XQLWDWHD WHULWRULDO FDUH UHSUH]LQW vQ DFHODL WLPS ED]D GH
raportare (j).
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s i I xi / j ) suQWSRQGHUD LFXFRP
VXUDWRULVSHFLILFLXQHLDQXPLWHXQLW
L
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media
f
i/ j
x ifi
x i fj
x jfi
x j fj
(10.15)
x
i/ j
x ifi
x jf i
x ifj
x jf j
(10.16)
LLFHUFHWDWHWLSXO
YDULD LHL DEVROXW VDX UHODWLY L VFRSXO FXQRDWHULL LQIOXHQ HD] KRW UkWRU QX QXPD
L MXGHF
i rezultatele, ci
LOH GH YDORDUH SH FDUH RPXO GH DIDFHUL OH HODERUHD] SH ED]D DFHVWRUD YH]L L DSOLFD LLOH
LGLQDFHVWPDQXDO
QWUHE
ULGHFRQWURO
$QDOL]D L
SDUWLFXODULW
LOH
VHULLORU WHULWRULDOH
vQ
FRPSDUD LH
FX SDUWLFXODULW
ile serilor
cronologice.
x
x
$U WD LFXPVHDOHJHED]DGHFRPSDUD LHvQFD]XOVHULLORUWHULWRULDOH
3UH]HQWD L FRPSDUDWLY PHWRGHOH GH LHUDUKL]DUH D XQLW
GH]DYDQWDMHOHILHF UHLPHWRGH
x
3UH]HQWD LVLVWHPHOHGHSRQGHUDUH
LQGLFHGHJUXSGHSUH
a) de tip Laspeyres;
b) de tip Paasche;
c) de tip Fischer;
d) IRUPDWGXS PHWRGDVXEVWLWXLULLvQO Q XLWH
e) IRUPDWGXS PHWRGDUHVWXOXLQHGHVFRPSXV