Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ca. 20 medarbejdere
City Future Clubs
Medlemsrapporter
Projekter
Tidssyn - fremtidsperspektiv
Fortidsorienterede
Nutidsorienterede
Fremtidsorienterede
Seeing is beliving
2014
2004
20%
15%
55%
2014
Fremtidsorien
terede
Nutidsoriente
rede
Fortidsorient
erede
Top level
megatrend
Sub-trend
trends
Individual
observations
Regional and
national
stakeholders
(outside of
industry)
Media options
Funding
Competitors
Political and legislative actors
(relevance in industry)
Suppliers
Meeting of physical and digital
infrastructure
Influencers
Players in value chain
Consumer advocates
Din
Organisation
Megatrends
Contextual
environment
Transactional
environment
Strategy
Business development
Innovation
Trusler
Muligheder
13
Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth
Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth
Hyper-competition is accelerating
creative destruction
CEOs cannot keep up: 40% of
CEOs last less than 2 years and
median tenures lasted 5.5 years
(in Australia it is down to 3.9
years)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1973-1983
1983-1993
1993-2003
2003-2013
Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune
1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011
http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-partof-the-ceo-trend/
Significance
Competitor
Shifts
Innovation
Business
Interruption
Technology
Shifts
Economic
Conditions
Reputation
Regulation
Terrorism
Interest
rates
Hazards
Foreign
Exchange
Credit Risk
Compliance
Likelihood
Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM (2006)
Industries converge
Five largest mobile handset manufacturers
worldwide based on quarterly sales figures
(total units sold)
2000
2012
1. Nokia
1. Samsung
2. Motorola
2. Nokia
3. Ericsson
3. Apple
4. Siemens
4. ZTE
5. Panasonic
5. LG Electronics
Hyper-competition is accelerating
creative destruction
CEOs cannot keep up: 40% of
CEOs last less than 2 years and
median tenures lasted 5.5 years
(in Australia it is down to 3.9
years)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1973-1983
1983-1993
1993-2003
2003-2013
Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business ... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune
1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April 2011
http://www.tlnt.com/2010/07/28/so-long-and-farewell-lon-youre-simply-partof-the-ceo-trend/
The world is
changing fast.
Big will not beat
small anymore.
It will be the fast
beating the
slow.
Rupert Murdoch
Eje
Aktiver/Pant
Lease
Service
Cash flow
1900er
Non-social interaktion
Vrdi i transaktioner
Businessstabilitet
Veldefinerede industrier og hierarkier
Envejsmarkeder
Begrnset information
Overskud af ressourcer
Institutioner
2000er
Gennemgribende social
interaktion
Vrdi i forhold
Business i flux
Industritransformation
Tovejsmarkeder
Informations overflod
Ressourcemssige begrnsninger
Fllesskaber
Drivkrfter
Ambient kommunikation
Globale informationsstrmme
Social computing
Markedets diskontinuitet
KONTROL
Source: Dion Hinchchiffe, 2010
Implikationer af acceleration og
kompleksitet
Kan vi spotte ndret kundeadfrd i vores BI (early
warning)
Er vi gearet til at lede/styre fremtidens
projektorganisation
Hvordan samarbejder vi i vores vrdikde med
specialiserede eksterne aktrer
Hvordan hndterer vi sikkerhed i en mere ben struktur
MR1 2013
Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth
Adgang/service er
vigtigere end ejerskab
Sharing economy
Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth
Demografi
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1950
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
28,6
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1960
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
29,6
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1970
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
30,6
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1980
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
31,9
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
1990
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
34,4
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2000
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
37,6
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2010
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
40,8
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2020
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
43,8
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2030
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
46,6
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2040
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
49,4
OECD
More developed regions
Low Variant
Male
Mnd
Female
Kvinder
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
2050
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
Population
tusental)
Population (i(in
1000)
20,000
30,000
40,000
Median age
51,1
Senior lines
K-citymarket (Finland) testing slow-track checkout lane
for the old and handicapped
Slow moving belt, help with placing items on belt, small
talking with the co-worker
Lane is called: SLOW
Grab a chair - sit down and enjoy the atmosphere
Livsfaser:
Fortid
Fremtid
20
40
60
80
Age
ldre
60
Frie 2
Forldre
40
Frie 1
Uafhngige
20
Afhngige
80
Age
Genkai Shuraku?
Andel af befolkningen i 2012 og 2020,
der er fyldt 65 r
Metropol regioner
Korridorer
De korridorer, der
forbinder to strre byer
eller metropol regioner
I job:193.000
Beskftiget,
flytter til
resten af
landet;
68.000
Ikke i job
169.000
Beskftiget,
flytter til Kbh
og stjylland;
125.000
85%
15%
91%
9%
78%
22%
28%
72%
I job
Arbejdslse,
folke- og frtidspensionister
Kbenhavn by
90,9
9,1
stjylland
85,3
14,7
Fyn
Vest- og
Sydsjlland
77,7
22,3
72
28
Hele landet
83,3
16,7
resundsregionens infrastruktur
(jernbane og vej) til Europa allerede
mttet.
Det danske jernbanenet er under den
standard, der findes i nabolande.
20059
16034
London
vrige Storbritannien
34
39,7
42,9
vrige Storbritannien
20
0
London-regionen
Ingenir og naturvidenskab
uforandret
60,00%
100000
50,00%
90000
40,00%
80000
30,00%
70000
20,00%
60000
10,00%
50000
0,00%
40000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
30000
20000
10000
0
1999
2000
2001
Men
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Women
Liner (
Liner (
Liner (
She-conomy
The average American woman is
expected to earn more than the average
American male by 2028.
Women account for 85% of all consumer
purchases :
Sources: She-conomy.com
Megatrends
Network society
Demographic
development
Sustainability
Knowledge society
Focus on health
Polarization
Immaterialization
Globalization
Democratization
Commercialization
Acceleration and
complexity
Technologic
development
Individualization
Economic growth
Individualisering
Brn af tiden
1940
Baby
Boomers
1950
Silent
generation
1960
1970 1980
Generation
x
1990
Generation
Y
2000
2010
Generation
z
Generation
Alpha
ct
ct
n
el
p.
ex
an
ch
o
st
es
al
du
du
e
oc
pr
el
od
ce
em
vi
st
er
sy
ro
ra
B
ro
e
or
ce
ro
k
or
es
.P
w
et
n
si
up
u
B
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
C
u
er
m
ct
ct
n
el
p.
ex
an
ch
o
st
es
al
du
du
e
oc
pr
el
od
ce
em
vi
st
er
sy
ro
ra
B
ro
e
or
ce
ro
k
or
es
.P
w
et
n
si
up
u
B
Thank you!
Claus Kjeldsen
Ck@cifs.dk