Homework 5

Dana Asbury
December 1, 2015
Problem 1. What is the probability of oil being present when the region is non-mountainous
region? P (F |N M )
Region is 30% mountainous P (M ) = .3 and 70% non-mountainous P (N M ) = .7 and
P (F ) = .15.
P (M |F ) = .40, P (N M |F ) = .71765
P (N M |F ) = .6, P (M |F ) = .28235
So we know that:
P (F |N M ) =

.6 .15
P (N M |F )P (F )
=
= 0.12857142857
P (N M )
.7

Problem 2. E = P (F |M ) 2 106 106

P (M |F ) P (F )
.4 .15
P (F |M ) =
=
= .2
P (M )
.3
E = .2 2 106 106 = 600000
So they should not advise drilling because the expected value is a negative profit.
Problem 3. P (F |P R)
P (P R|F ) = .999, P (F ) = .02, P (P R) = 1 .01 = .99
P (F |P R) =

.999 .02
P (P R|F ) P (F )
=
= 0.02018181818
P (P R)
.99

Problem 4a. Mo is Monkey, Bo is Box, Ba is Banana

At(M o, A)At(Ba, B)At(Bo, C)Height(M o, Low)Height(Bo, Low)Height(Ba, High)
Problem 4b.
1. Action(Go(x, y), P RECON D : At(M o, x), EF F ECT : At(M o, x) At(M o, y)
2. Action(P ush(bo, x, y), P RECON D : At(M o, x), EF F ECT : At(M o, x) At(bo, x)
At(bo, y) At(M o, y)
3. Action(ClimbU p(bo), P RECON D : At(bo, x) At(M o, x), EF F ECT : On(M o, b)
Height(M o, High)
4. Action(ClimbDown(bo), P RECON D : On(M o, bo), EF F ECT : On(M o, bo)Height(mo, low)
5, Action(Grasp(ba), P RECON D : At(mo, x)At(ba, x)Height(ba, h)Height(mo, h)EF F ECT :
Holds(mo, ba)
6. Action(U nGrasp(ba), P RECON D : Holds(mo, ba), EF F ECT : Holds(mo, ba)
1

Problem 4c. Let our goal state be Sf and our initial state be Si
Holds(M o, Ba, Sf ) x(At(Bo, x, Sf ) At(Bo, x, Si ))
No, there is no way of showing the location of the starting and ending states are equal.
Problem 4d. Action(P ush(bo, x, y), P RECON D : At(M o, x) Heavy(bo), EF F ECT :
At(M o, x) At(bo, x) At(bo, y) At(M o, y)