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    195 views14 pages

    中金宏观深度研究 PDF

    Uploaded by

    Patrick Liu

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 14

    2015 3 9

    M2 2014 M2
    12.2% 1 10.8%

    SAC S0080513050005
    SFC CE RefAJD293
    hong.liang@cicc.com.cn

    SAC S0080115020007
    80% xiangrong.yu@cicc.com.cn

    1
    1%

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    1 25
    1
    2
    3

    4.5%

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    (2015.01.15)

    (2014.11.05)
    (2014.10.27)

    3~6
    GDP 7.3%
    7.5% 2015
    6.11 6.15 6.20 6.25


    : 2015 3 9

    M2 12014 M2
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    2
    : 2015 3 9

    3: 2014


    % %
    27.86 82.38 29.41 86.96
    27.07 80.04 6.72 19.87
    1.53 4.52 22.69 67.09
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    4
    : 2015 3 9

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    : 2015 3 9

    16: 17:

    Wind Wind

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    7
    : 2015 3 9

    20: 2015
    M2 ( (
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    2014 13 122.84 29.41 2.31 0.64 1.67 4.18 - -

    2015 13 138.81 31.08 1.67 0.00 1.67 4.47 15.54 7


    M2
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    M2
    2015 14 140.03 31.08 1.67 0.00 1.67 4.51 15.07 8

    2015 13 138.81 30.68 1.27 -0.40 1.67 4.53 14.85 8



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    2014 11 5


    9
    : 2015 3 9

    3~6
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    6.11 6.15 6.20 6.25


    10
    : 2015 3 9

    M2

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    2014 87%


    11
    : 2015 3 9

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    2013 24

    2014
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    ()
    /, 36 /

    2000
    2005 195 38 47 49

    /
    http://www.cicc.com.cn/CICC/chinese/operation/page4-4.htm

    V140905



    1 1233 1
    2 28 32 29
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    (86-10) 6505-1166 (86-21) 5879-6226 (852) 2872-2100
    (86-10) 6505-1156 (86-21) 5888-8976

    Singapore United Kingdom


    China International Capital China International Capital
    Corporation (Singapore) Pte. Limited Corporation (UK) Limited
    #39-04, 6 Battery Road, Level 25, 125 Old Broad Street
    Singapore 049909 London EC2N 1AR, United Kingdom
    Tel: (65) 6572-1999 Tel: (44-20) 7367-5718
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