Financial Inc.

.
 2008

SME Financial
sme@palnet.com

:
1 ............................................................................................................
3 .............................................................................................................
3 ....................................................................................
5 .............................................................................................................
9 ..........................................................................................................
10 ..........................................................................................................

:
14 ............................................................................................................
15 ...................................................................................
15 ...................................................................................................
20 .....................................................................................................

:
29 ............................................................................................................
30 ......................................................................................................................
31 ......................................................................................................................
33 ...............................................................................................
35 ........................................................................................................................
35 ................................................................................................................
36 ..............................................................................................................
37 ...............................................................................................................
38 .................................................................................................
38 ...................................................................................................
39 ....................................................................................................

:
42 ...............................................................................................................
44 ...............................................................................................................
46 ....................................................................................................
47 ..............................................................................................
48 .................................................................................................................

:
52 .....................................................................................................................
53 ..........................................................................................
55 .......................................................................................................................
55 .............................................................................................................
56 .................................................................................................................
56 ...............................................................................................................
57 ...............................................................................................

:
59 ............................................................................................................
60 ................................................................................................
 61 ...........................................................................................................
63 .......................................................................................................
64 ........................................................................................................
65 ........................................................................................................................

:
66 .........................................................................................................
71 ......................................................................................................
72 ..........................................................................................................................
73 ................................................................................................
74 .............................................................................................................

:
76 ...............................................................................................................
77 ......................................................................................................
79 .................................................................................
)81 .............................................................................................................. (Z-Score
)87 .................................................................................. (Taffler and Tisshow, 1977
)89 .................................................................................................. (Springate, 1978
)90 ........................................................................................................... (Kida 1980
)91 ................................................................................................ (Zmijewski, 1984
)94 .................................................................................................... (Zavgren, 1985
)97 ........................................................................................... (Kah and Tans, 1999
)101 .................................................................................................... (Sherrod 1987
)103 ............................................................................................................. (A-Score

:
105 ...............................................................................................................
106 ............................................................................................................
107 ...............................................................................................................
107 ......................................................................................................................
110 ................................................................................................................
110 ..............................................................................................................
112 ..............................................................................................................
115 .......................................................................................................................
116 .....................................................................................................................

120 ....................................................................................................................
124 .............................................................................................................
126 ......................................................................................
127 ..................................................................................
128 .......................................................................
129 ..............................................................................................................
138 ............................................................................................................

143 ..............................................................................................................

" .
".

 :

.
.

1
 :

"

" .

2
 :

) (IAASB ISA 520

3
 :

4
 :

5
 :

31 2008 2007
) (

2007 2008

:
- 3,680,411 3,680,411
%13 )(347,022 )(391,255 /

)%(1 3,333,389 3,289,156 -

:
%734 188,444 1,571,443
%187 738,309 2,122,402
)%(52 2,777,001 1,335,033
)%(88 1,220,998 150,710

%5 4,924,752 5,179,588

%3 8,258,141 8,468,744

- 4,500,000 4,500,000
%66 1,664,976 2,771,380
%18 6,164,976 7,271,380

)%(35 1,676,618 1,083,024
)%(73 416,547 114,340
)%(43 2,093,165 1,197,364

%3 8,258,141 8,468,744

6
 :

31 2008 2007
) (

2007 2008

%51 1,602,333 2,415,600

%24 )(559,878 )(695,300

%65 1,042,455 1,720,300

%0.35 )(225,644 )(226,429 /

%128 )(57,971 )(132,111 /

%79 758,840 1,361,760

)%(15 )(51,812 )(44,233 /

%86 707,028 1,317,527

%61 )(9,887 )(15,875

%265 11,933 43,612

%4419 )(2,112 )(95,444

%77 )(71,119 )(125,993

%77 635,843 1,123,827

%77 )(3,179 )(5,619

%77 )(1,590 )(2,810

%77 631,074 1,115,398

%25 )(7,150 )(8,994 /

%77 623,924 1,106,404

7
 :

.1 ) :(Liquidity Ratios

.2 ) :(Profitability Ratios

.3 ) :(Leverage Ratios

8
 :

.4 ) :(Activity Ratios

.5 ) :(Market Ratios

9
 :

) (IASB ) (FASB

.1

).(Earning Management

.2

.3

" " ) (.

10
 :

.4

.5

) (Profit Maximization

) (Stockholder Wealth Maximization

.1

11
 :

.2

.3

)( )( :

30,000 25,000 1
30,000 25,000 2
30,000 25,000 3
30,000 25,000 4
30,000 25,000 5
30,000 25,000 6
180,000 150,000

12
 :

)( )(

)(

. :

.1 .

.2 .

.3 .

.4

.5 .

.6

13
 :
" .
".

)(

1994

14
 :

.1

(.

.2

.3

15
 :

1

)(

2

)(
)(
3

)(



+

16
 :

.1 :

: ): (Direct Method

)(

) (

17
 :

)(

)(

)(

)(

: ): (Indirect Method

)( :

)( )

18
 :

)(

)(

)(

.2 :

. )(

. )(

. )( .

19
 :

. )( .

. )(

.3 :

. :

. )( .

. )(

.1

20
 :

"

" .

.2

.3

21
 :

.4

.5

.6

22
 :

. .

. .

.7

23
 :

31 2008 2007
) (

2007 2008

1,622,040 1,583,162
9,390 46,434
1,631,430 1,629,596

169,993 104,064
28,748 115,255
202,996 397,707
312,821 434,010
277,178 663,723
991,736 1,714,759
2,623,166 3,344,355


2,500,000 3,000,000
57,713 66,940
)(36,381 44,371 )(
2,521,332 3,111,311

-- 155,420

76,988 41,316
8,674 9,218
16,172 27,090
101,834 77,624
101,834 233,044
2,623,166 3,344,355

24
 :

31 2008 2007
) (

2007 2008

1,188,004 1,148,706

)(132,187 )(44,476
)(594,755 )(729,638
-- )(64,924
)(44,476 118,186
)(682,466 )(720,852

505,538 427,854

)(257,802 )(123,934
)(61,420 )(87,102

186,316 216,818

)(62,119 )(79,872

124,197 136,946

34,041 14,977

103 2,385

)(41,080 )(65,929
7,349 3,894

124,610 92,273

)(3,589 )(2,294

121,021 89,979

25
 :

2007 2008

1,188,004 1,148,706
)(163,157 )(121,189
1,024,847 1,027,517
)(682,466 )(720,852
)(20,881 )(194,711
37,893 )(35,672
)(665,454 )(951,235
)(257,802 )(123,934
)(61,420 )(87,102
)(14,905 )(86,507
1,657 8,624
)(332,470 )(288,919
26,923 )(212,637

)(82,326 )(43,145
281 4,537
146,644 --
)(9,390 )(37,044
34,041 14,977
7,349 3,894
55,209 )(75,652

)(8,926 155,963
-- 500,000
)(8,926 655,963
114,596 386,545
162,582 277,178
277,178 663,723

26
 :

2007 2008

121,021 89,979
)( :
62,119 79,872
3,589 2,294
)(103 )(2,385 )(
41,080 65,929
)(34,041 )(14,977 )(
)(7,349 )(3,894

186,316 216,818

)(
)(14,905 )(86,507
)(20,881 )(194,711
)(163,157 )(121,189

)(
1,657 8,624
37,893 )(35,672
26,923 )(212,637

)(82,326 )(43,145
281 4,537
146,644 --
)(9,390 )(37,044
34,041 14,977
7,349 3,894

55,209 )(75,652

27
 :

)(8,926 155,963
-- 500,000
)(8,926 655,963

114,596 386,545

162,582 277,178

277,178 663,723

28
 :
"
".

29
 :

.1 ): (Technical Insolvency

.2 ): (Real Insolvency

30
 :

.1 )(Current Ratio

31
 :

1.50

" "

1:2

32
 :

. %60 %40

%40 (.

.2 )(Liquid or Quick Ratio

1:1 .

33
 :

) (

0.39 1.31
0.77 1.19
0.98 1.44

0.62 1.50
0.75 1.54
0.62 1.43
0.74 1.54
0.70 1.03

0.66 1.53
0.69 1.42

0.43 1.68
0.15 2.14
0.19 1.23
0.14 1.90
0.38 1.61
0.18 0.73
0.34 1.18
0.84 1.36
0.68 1.29

34
 :

.3 )(Cash Ratio

.4 )(Working Capital

35
 :

. %20

.5 )(Defensive Internal Ratio

36
 :

) 365( .

365

.6 )(No-Credit Interval

37
 :

.7 )(Operating Cash Flow

.8 )(Dividend Coverage

38
 :

.9 )(Capital Expenditure

) (.

) (Free Cash Flow

) (CAPEX and Cash Dividend Coverage :

39
 :

40
 :


.

. :

41
 :

.1 )(Net Profit Margin

%20

0.20 .

10 1) %10 10

( . 1.5 20

%7.5

: .

42
 :

) (Gross Margin

: ) (

43
 :

.2 )(Return on Assets

) .(Return on Investments

%20 10

.%10

) (Return on Total Assets

44
 :

).(Basic Earning Power

) (Du Pont System of Financial Analysis

45
 :

) (Return on Net Assets :

.3 )(Return on Equity

) (Return on Net Worth

. .

(Return on Average Common

) Equity

46
 :

. :

= ) + 1 ( )) + 1 ( (1

.4 )(Capital Employed

47
 :

: :

.5 )(Earnings Per Share EPS

48
 :

25 . 1

10

15 1.92 )24

.(12.5 24

))+ (12 (12 10

)).(12 (6 5

).(Cash Earnings Per Share - Cash EPS

. :

. :

49
 :

)(Dividend per Share

50
 :
" ".

(Debt

) .Ratios .

) (Options ).(Futures

51
 :

. .

.1 )(Debt Ratio

. %100

. %40

52
 :

.2 )(Debt/Equity

53
 :

%200

.%50

. %67

(Long-Term Debt To

) Capitalization Ratio

54
 :

+ ) (

.3 )(Shareholder Equity Ratio

%35 400

140 ) 400 %35(.

.4 )(Assets Coverage Ratio

: +

55
 :

( .

1.5

.2

.5 )(Debt Coverage Ratio

.6 )(Interest Coverage Ratio

56
 :

) (Time Interest Earned

1.5

.7 )(Debt Service Coverage

57
 :

58
 :
" :
".

. ) (Assets Management Ratios

.1 )(Assets Turnover

59
 :

. :

(Fixed Assets

) Turnover

.2 )(Working Capital Turnover

60
 :

10 9 15

15 .

365 :

)( .

.3 )(Inventory Turnover

61
 :

. .

(Inventory

) Conversion period )(

365 :

)(

62
 :

.4 )(Receivables Turnover

) (Receivables Conversion period

63
 :

365 :

.5 )(Payables Turnover

. .

) (Payables Conversion period

64
 :

365 :

.6 )(Cash Conversion Cycle

= +

) (

65
 :
......


....... ".

"
".

.1 )(Price-Earnings Ratio

66
 :

) (Price Multiple

. :

13.2

12 1.6

8.25 ) (1.6 13.2

8.25

8.25

67
 :

) ( ).(N/A

50

10 5

17 11

+17

68
 :

(PE To Growth -

) PEG Ratio :

0.5

69
 :

%15 8.25

) (PEG (15 8.25) 0.55 ) (PEG

) (PEG Ratio

) (PE to Growth and Dividend Yield - PEGY

70
 :

) (P/E Ratio

) (PEG Ratio

.2 )(Price-to-Book

: ) (

71
 :

) ( .

160

5 80

30 5

1:2

.3 )(Dividend Yield

72
 :

30 5 .%2

.4 )(Price-To-OCF

73
 :

. )(P/E

.5 )(Holding Period Return

74
 :

) : ( +

75
 :
" : :
".
"
".

" :

"

76
 :

) (.

) (IAASB

ISA 570 .

77
 :

.1 .

.2

.3 .

.4 .

.5 .

.6 .

.7 .

.1 .

.2 .

.3 .

.1 .

.2 .

.3 .

78
 :

79
 :

" " ) ( .

. :

"" .

1967 ) (Beaver )(Altman

1968 .

1964 )(Tamari

(Multi Disciminant .

) Analysis .

(Mutli

) nominal Logit ) (Bayesian Analysis

80
 :

) (Neural Networks

.1 )(Z-Score

) (Z 1968

) (Edward Altman

. ) (66

(33)

) (

(Classification

) Analysis %94 %97

%72 %94 .

) (22

81
 :

) (1965 1964 :

5 1.2 = Z 1.4 + 1 3.3 + 2 0.6 + 30.999 + 4

= 1 .

= 2 .

= 3 .

= 4 .

= 5 .

) (Z

) (Z ) (2.99.

)(Z

) (1.81.

82
 :

) (Z ) (1.81 ) .(2.99

) (972 ) (86

) (1975 1969) (910 ) (110

) (1995 1976) (555 ) (120 ) 1997

(1999

.%94 - %82

555 910 972

)(1999 1997 )(1995 1976 )(1975 1969

0.38600- 0.30100- 0.05800

2.06700 1.59900 1.50400

1.38500 2.62710 2.07300

0.00500- 0.03300- 0.01400-

0.06900- 0.15700- 0.05800-

83
 :

220,560
931,975
281,580
1,029,547
)(155,389
2,630
966,855
16,148

555 910 972

)(1999 1997 )(1995 1976 )(1975 1969

= )(Z = )(Z = )(Z = )(Z

0.02527 0.3860- 0.01970 0.301- 0.003797- 0.0580 0.07856- 1.2000


0.3446327- 2.0670 -0.26660 1.5990 0.250763- 1.5040 0.23342- 1.4000



0.0239974 1.3850 0.04551 2.6271 0.0359181 2.0730 0.05717 3.3000




0.0000127- 0.0050- -0.00008 0.0330- 0.000035- 0.0140- 0.00153 0.6000



0.0715824- 0.0690- -0.16287 0.157- 0.060170- 0.0580- 1.03742 1.0000

0.36696- 0.3643- 0.27884- 0.78414

84
 :

) ( . )(Altman

1977 ) Zeta (

) (53 ) (58

) (1975 1969

) (28 .

5 0.717 = Z 0.847 + 1 3.107 + 2 0.420 + 30.998 + 4

= 1 .

= 2 .

= 3 .

= 4 .

= 5 .

85
 :

) (Z ) (2.9 .

) (1.23 .

. ) (Z

. ) (Altman, Hartzell, Peck 1995

) (Zeta .

4 6.56 = Z 3.26 + 1 6.72 + 21.05 + 3

= 1 .

= 2 .

= 3 .

= 4 .

86
 :

) (Z ) (2.6 .

) (1.1 .

.2 )(Taffler and Tisshow, 1977

) (Taffler and Tisshow

1977

) (46 ) (46

) ( .

4 0.53 = Z 0.13 + 1 0.18 + 20.16 + 3

= 1

= 2

= 3

= 4 =

87
 :

) (Z 0.3.

) (Z 0.2.

1982 ) (Taffler

) (23 )(1973 - 1968

) (45 . ) (150

= 1 .

= 2 .

= 3 .

= 4 .

) (Taffler

88
 :

.3 )(Springate, 1978

) (Gordan Springate

%92.5 )(20

) (20 .

4 1.03 = Z 3.07 + 1 0.66 + 20.4 + 3

= 1 .

= 2 .

= 3 .

= 4 .

) (Z

) (Z 0.862 .

) (Botheras 1979 ) (50

) 2.5 ( .%88

89
 :

) (Sands 1980 ) (24

) (63.4 .%83.3

.4 )(Kida, 1980

(20) %90 ) (20

) (1975 1974 :

5 1.042 = Z 0.42 + 1 0.461 2 0.463 30.271 + 4

= 1 .

= 2 .

= 3 .

= 4 .

= 5 .

) (Z

) (Z .

90
 :

.5 )(Zmijewski, 1984

) (Zmijewski

) (40 ) (800 .

) (19781972 :

. ) (Probit Analysis

3 = 3.599 - 4.803 - 5.406 + 10.1 2

) (Altman ) (1.8138

3 = 6.5279 - 8.7117 - 9.8054 + 10.1814 2

= 1 .

= 2 .

= 3 .

91
 :

= ) EXP) +1) 1((

) EXP(

2.71828182845904 e )(

2.71828182845904 )(.

) (1

%50 ) (0.5

) (1987 1985

) (791 ) (990 .

990 791 1048

7.3930 - 7.8447 - 7.8737 -

3.4843 3.9795 3.8199
1.7975 0.1397 0.1669
4.8138 - 4.500 - 4.6416 -

92
 :

330,240
1,025,514
173,528
434,487
120,900

990 791 1048 840

0.87158- 7.3930- 0.92483- 7.8447- 0.92825- 7.8737- 0.76958 - 6.5279-

/

1.476223 3.4843 1.686014 3.9795 1.618389 3.8199 4.154327 9.8054

/

3.420764 1.7975 0.265791 0.1397 0.317568 0.1669 0.34518- 0.1814-

/

4.81384- 4.8138- 4.50000- 4.5000- 4.64152- 4.6416- 8.71168- 8.7117-

0.78844- 3.47303- 3.63381- 5.67211-

0.312508 0.030089 0.025736 0.003429

93
 :

.6 )(Zavgren 1985

) (Zavgren

. 45 45

= 1 .

= 2 .

= 3 .

= 4 .

= 5 ) + (.

= 6 ) + (.

= 7 ) + (.

94
 :

: 100

6.87660- 5.9457- 1.5115- 2.6106- 0.2388-

0.08835 0.09157 0.06265 0.04185 0.00108 = 1 /

0.00692 0.01667 0.00829 0.02215 0.01583 = 2 /

0.15786 0.05917 0.4248 0.11231 0.1078 = 3 /

0.00018 0.0041- 0.01549- 0.0269- 0.03074- = 4 /

= 5 ) /
0.02301- 0.01950 0.00519 0.0144- 0.00486-
+ (

= 6 ) / +
0.04371 0.0410 0.01822 0.04464 0.0435
(

= 7 ) / +
0.00798 0.00363 0.00002 0.00063 0.0011-
(

= ) EXP) +1) 1 ((

) (1

0.5 .

95
 :

:
:
63,723
125,612 -
212,678 -
314,312
286,896
12,309
575,606
993,162
120,500
1,689,268
77,624
355,420
1,213,024
580,907
)(20,333

)(x100 )(x100 )(x100 )(x100 )(x100


6.8766- 6.8766- 5.9457- 5.9457- 1.5115- 1.5115- 2.610- 2.6106- 0.239- 0.2388-

4.5718 0.0883 4.7385 0.09157 3.23783 0.06257 2.1656 0.04185 0.0558 0.00108 = 1
%51.7

0.3893 0.0069 0.93799 0.01667 0.46646 0.00829 1.2463 0.02215 0.8907 0.01583 = 2
%56.3

0.5955 0.1578 0.22320 0.05917 1.60244 0.4248 0.4236 0.1123 0.4066 0.1078 = 3
%3.8

0.0640 0.0001 1.4599- 0.0041- 5.5156- 0.0155- 9.578- 0.0269- 10.95- 0.0307- = 4
%356

0.0298 0.0230- 0.0252- 0.0195 0.0067- 0.00519 0.0186 0.0144- 0.0063 0.0048- = 5
%1.3-

0.9904 0.0437 0.92908 0.0410 0.41287 0.01822 1.0115 0.04464 0.9857 0.0435 = 6
%22.7

0.3108 0.008 0.1414 0.00363 0.00078 0.00002 0.0245 0.00063 0.043- 0.0011- = 7
%39
0.0755 0.460- 1.313- 7.299- 8.882-

0.518850812 0.386822087 0.211908124 0.000675994 0.000138822

96
 :

.7 )(Kah and Tans 1999

"" .

6 5 4 3 2 1
1.4748 1.219- 0.7894 1.0923 0.7445- 1.7131- 1
0.0608 1.5736 1.4973 0.9675 0.4731 2.409 2
1.1088 3.0948- 1.1811 0.4594- 0.6464- 4.7666- 3
1.7151- 3.4716 1.0374- 1.9108- 1.5166 2.4481 4
1.0478 3.8518- 0.3472- 0.5539 0.832 1.8592- 5
1.4635- 0.5343 0.9583 0.9388 1.6206- 2.3792 6
0.2471 4.162- 0.3435 4.7112 1.9838- 0.3777- 7
2.9925 3.8518 0.903- 3.0032- 0.068 0.7749 8
1.5489- 1.4552- 2.8183 0.8004 2.7006- 0.1082 9
1.68 1.5487- 1.5812- 1.5506 3.8039- 1.4331- 10
1.3918- 1.9189 3.2994 1.8209 1.174 1.069- 11
3.2479- 1.474- 1.2572- 1.5102 1.6278 3.4508- 12
1.7903- 0.9288- 3.2692 1.3851 1.8089- 1.586 13

97
 :

) ( :

) (

= ) EXP) +1) 1 ((

0.2511- 1
0.2906 2
1.9166- 3
2.4069 4
1.036- 5
1.145 6
4.027- 7
4.5182 8
0.7421- 9
2.4982- 10
1.3286 11
3.545- 12
0.4856 13

98
 :

) ) EXP :((

= ) EXP) +1) 1 ((

) (1

0.5 .

286,896
12,309
575,606
993,162
120,500
1,689,268
77,624
398,620
110,900
12,880
)(7,453
)(20,333

99
 :

6 5 4 3 2 1

0.0656 0.0120- 0.4068- 0.2360 0.6927 3.5608

1.4748 1.219- 0.7894 1.0923 0.7445- 1.7131- 1

0.0608 1.5736 1.4973 0.9675 0.4731 2.409 2
1.1088 3.0948- 1.1811 0.4594- 0.6464- 4.7666- 3
1.7151- 3.4716 1.0374- 1.9108- 1.5166 2.4481 4
1.0478 3.8518- 0.3472- 0.5539 0.832 1.8592- 5
1.4635- 0.5343 0.9583 0.9388 1.6206- 2.3792 6
0.2471 4.162- 0.3435 4.7112 1.9838- 0.3777- 7
2.9925 3.8518 0.903- 3.0032- 0.068 0.7749 8
1.5489- 1.4552- 2.8183 0.8004 2.7006- 0.1082 9
1.68 1.5487- 1.5812- 1.5506 3.8039- 1.4331- 10
1.3918- 1.9189 3.2994 1.8209 1.174 1.069- 11
3.2479- 1.474- 1.2572- 1.5102 1.6278 3.4508- 12
1.7903- 0.9288- 3.2692 1.3851 1.8089- 1.586 13
0.0968 0.0147 0.3212- 0.2578 0.5157- 6.1000-
0.0040 0.0189- 0.6092- 0.2283 0.3277 8.5779
0.0728 0.0373 0.4805- 0.1084- 0.4478- 16.9728-
0.1126- 0.0418- 0.4221 0.4509- 1.0505 8.7171
0.0688 0.0464 0.1413 0.1307 0.5763 6.6202-

0.0961- 0.0064- 0.3899- 0.2215 1.1226- 8.4718

0.0162 0.0501 0.1397- 1.1117 1.3742- 1.3449-
0.1965 0.0464- 0.3674 0.7087- 0.0471 2.7592
0.1017- 0.0175 1.1466- 0.1889 1.8707- 0.3853
0.1103 0.0186 0.6433 0.3659 2.6349- 5.1029-
0.0914- 0.0231- 1.3423- 0.4297 0.8132 3.8065-
0.2132- 0.0177 0.5115 0.3564 1.1276 12.2875-
0.1175- 0.0112 1.3300- 0.3268 1.2530- 5.6474

100
 :

= ) EXP) +1) / 1((

0.000352351- 0.2511- 0.001403231 6.56757332- 1

0.290541461 0.2906 0.999798557 8.509800764 2

0.0000000323- 1.9166- 0.000000017 17.8993878- 3

2.406734437 2.4069 0.999931213 9.584430311 4

0.003607039- 1.036- 0.003481698 5.65674743- 5

1.144035387 1.145 0.999157543 7.078345652 6

0.632202742- 4.027- 0.156990996 1.68078918- 7

4.210192029 4.5182 0.931829496 2.615137875 8

0.054890398- 0.7421- 0.07396631 2.52730090- 9

0.00339467- 2.4982- 0.001358846 6.59975940- 10

0.023423879 1.3286 0.017630497 4.02033730- 11

0.000098835- 3.545- 0.000027880 10.4875691- 12

0.468072025 0.4856 0.9639045 3.28482401 13

7.848453149

0.000390355 = ) ) EXP(

0.999609797 = ) EXP) +1) / 1 ((

.8 )(Sherrod 1987

101
 :

6 17 = Z 9 + 1 3.5 + 2 20 + 3 1.2 + 40.10 + 5

= 1 .

= 2 .

= 3 .

= 4 .

= 5 .

= 6 .

) (Z

)(Z

Z >= 25

25 > Z >= 20

20 > Z >= 5

5 > Z >= 5-

Z < 5-

102
 :

.9 )(A-Score

) (A

. ) (Argenti, 1976

: .

103
 :

3 ) (.

15 ) (.

43

15

15

15 .

45

4 ) (

)
4
(

12

100

) (A

)(A

0 A < 18

35 < A

18 A 35 ) (

104
 :


.

105
 :

.1

.2

.3 .

.4

.1 : .

.2 : .

.3 :

.4 : .

106
 :

.1 : .

.2 : .

.3 : .

.4 : .

107
 :

) 1 (

108
 :

.1

= ) (

.2

) 1 (

: +

.3

109
 :

5000

%40

12,500 ). (%40 5000

.1 )(Net Present Value NPV

110
 :

) (fx

: NPV

1,000 %7

500 300

505.630.

111
 :

.2 )(Internal Rate of Return IRR

112
 :

= ) + 1 2 (1) / 1 + 1(2

: 1 ) (.

: 2 ) (.

: 1 .

: 2 .

) (fx : IRR

113
 :

1000

500 400 300

.% 10.7

114
 :

.3 )(Profitability Index PI

%8 1,000

400

1,030.838

.(1000 1030.838) 1.03

115
 :

.4 )(Payback Period

100,000

20,000 .

-1000 -1000 0
-500 500 1
-100 400 2
100 200 3
300 200 4
400 100 5

116
 :

)= 400 + 500 + 1000-

(100- )400 + 500 + 1000-

.(100 = 200 + ) (

= 2.5 = (200 100) + 2

-65,000 -65,000
10,000 25,000
20,000 30,000
35,000 10,000
10,000 10,000
9,000 9,000
8,000 8,000
%9 %9
5,264 7,901
3 3
%12 %15
1.4 1.4

)( )( )(

)( .

117
 :

-65,000 -65,000
20,000 10,000
20,000 20,000
25,000 25,000
30,000 30,000
15,000 20,000
%7 %7
23,504 18,101
3 3.3
%20 %16
1.7 1.61

)(

)( .

118
 :
"

".

143
 :

) (Erik,B.,1993 "

".

: .

) (Williams, Smith, & Young,1995

) (Finard,J.B.1996

120
 :

.1 .

.2 .

.3 .

) (Brigham & Houston,1998

.1 .

.2 .

.3 .

) (Hamilton,C.R.,1998

) (Hamilton :

.1 .

.2 .

.3 .

121
 :

.4 .

.5 .

.6 .

) (Bozzo,N.L.,1998

) (Penny,C.,1999

. ) (Penny

"

".

) (Borgsdorf & Pliszka,1999

122
 :

) (Borgsdorf & Pliszka

"

"

.1 .

.2 .

.3 .

.4 .

.5 .

) (Stewart,T.,2000

123
 :

.1 " "

.2 :

. .

. .

) (Williams, Smith, & Young,1995

124
 :

) (Peters,D.,1997

) (Watsham,T.J.,1998

) (McNamee,D.,2000

" :

". :

.1 .

.2 :

.3

125
 :

: .

: .

: .

: .

: ) (

" ".

126
 :

.1 :

""

...

. )(Francis, J., 1986

127
 :

.2 :

""

. .

. ) (Francis,J.,1986

128
 :

.1 :

.2 :

) (Markowitz

. )

129
 :

. ) (

) .1/1024 10

(.

130
 :

.1

""

. .

) ( .

:
:

131
 :

:
:

-1.0 . .

+ 1.0

132
 :

: .
: .
: .
: .
: .
: .

.2

.( ...

. )(2-

133
 :

:

:
:
:
:
1

.3

) (

) ( .

134
 :

) ( .

.%1

%10

%15 .%5

(y - b(x)) n

n
: ) 60 36(.
: b
:
x
.
: . y

.4 )(R-Squared

. .100

100

135
 :

.5

:
:
:

.6

136
 :

:
:
:

.7

137
 :

:
:

-1 :

138
 :

-2 :

. :

) (

) ( ) (

-3 :

139
 :

: :

)(

) (

) (Sell-offs

Equity curve-out :

Split-ups , Split-offs , Spin-offs

: :

.1 ) :

(.

140
 :

.2 .

.3 " ".

. )

) ( .

) (

) ( .

141
 :

. .1

. .2

. .3

. .4

. .5

. .6

. .7

) (. .8

. .9

142
 :
Altman, E., 1968, Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the
Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy, Journal of Finance, September, pp. 189-
209.

Ash, R.L., 1992, Assets Engineering and Financial Restructuring, In The

Book ; Financial management, Concepts and applications, Rao, R.K.S., (N.Y. :
Macmillan Publishing company), P. 634 637.

Ash, R.L., 1992, Assets Engineering and Financial Restructuring, In The

Book ; Financial management, Concepts and applications, Rao, R.K.S., (N.Y. :
Macmillan Publishing company), P. 634 637.

Borgsdorf, D., & Pliszka, D., 1999, Manager your risk or risk your
management, Public Management (US), Vol. 81, No.11, PP. 6 10.

Bozzo, N.L., Enhancing Shareholder value through risk management, TMA

Journal, 1998, Vol 18, No. 6, P.4.

Brigham, E.F., 1999, Intermediate Financial Management, Sixth Edition,

The Dryden Press.

Culp, C.L., 2001, The risk management process : Business Strategy and
Tactics, (N.Y. : John Witey & Sons, Inc.), PP. 26 29.

Cummins, J.D., et al., The Rise of Risk Management, Economic Review,

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1998, Vol. 83, No.1, P. 31.

Finard, J.B., 1996, A framework for Corporate Financial Risk Management,

In The Book: Derivatives risk and responsibility; The complete guide to effective
derivatives management and decision making, Kelin, P.A., & Lederman, J.,
(Chicago : Irwin), P.73.

143
 Gastineau, G.L., & Kiritzman, M.P., 1996, The dictionary of financial risk
management, (N.Y. : Frank J. Fabozzi associates), PP. 241 242.

Graham, E. and B. Coyle, 2000, Corporate Credit Analysis: Credit Risk

Management, Published by Lessons Professional Publishing.

Hamilton, C.R., 1998, New trends in Risk Management ,Information

Systems Security, Vol. 7, No.1, PP.70 78.

Holliwell, J., 1998, Risk : enough rope to hang the business, In The Book :
Mastering finance, Dickson, T. & Bickerstaffe, G., (London : Financial times,
PP. 293 297.

KIDA, T., 1980, An investigation into auditors continuity and related

qualification judgments, Journal of Accounting Research, p. 506-523.

Mark., R.M., Innovative strategies and techniques for pricing contingent

credit risk, In The Book : ( Kelin, P.A., & Lederman , J., Op. Cit.), PP.235
246.

Penny, C., 1999, Financial risk management sources, Encontent, Vol. 22,
No. 6 , PP. 16 17.

Petty, J., et al., 1982, Basic financial management, (N.J. : Prentice Hall ,
1982), PP. 306.

Stewart, T.A., 2000, Management risk in the 21st century, Fortune, Vol..
144, No.3, P. 202.

William, C.A., Smith, M.L., & Young, P.C., 1995, Risk management and
insurance, (N.Y. : McGraw Hill, inc.), PP. 24-27.

144