FRIT 7231 Instructional Design

Design Document

Angela Clark

Dr. Hodges
Summer 2016

Identification of Learning Problem

The learning problem that I have identified is in the unit of probability. This includes the

following standards:

MGSE9-12.S.CP.1 Describe categories of events as subsets of a sample space using unions, intersections, or
complements of other events (or, and, not).
MGSE9-12.S.CP.2 Understand that if two events A and B are independent, the probability of A and B occurring
together is the product of their probabilities, and that if the probability of two events A and B occurring together is
the product of their probabilities, the two events are independent.
MGSE9-12.S.CP.3 Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P (A and B)/P(B). Interpret independence
of A and B in terms of conditional probability; that is the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the
probability of A and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.
MGSE9-12.S.CP.4 Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated
with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to
approximate conditional probabilities. For example, use collected data from a random sample of students in your
school on their favorite subject among math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected
student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the same for other subjects
and compare the results.
As I looked through my spring benchmarks the data showed that my students were struggling

with probability. The percentages of the four questions that were incorrect were 74%, 78%, 58%

and 33%. This is why I feel there needs to be some changes. My students are not where they

need to be in this area of the curriculum. This unit on probability is the last unit of Analytic

Geometry. Analytic Geometry has a year and half of content to be taught in one year. Algebra,

Geometry and Probability are being taught. The next school year I will be teaching GSE

Geometry. This curriculum does not include the Algebra. I will have more time for probability.

I always seemed to be pushed at the end of the year to get in probability before the standardized

test. I should see an increase in student achievement.

Goals:

The goals for the students are that they will be able to collect data, construct and give details of a

two-way frequency table. Using the frequency table students will be able to identify

independent events and estimate conditional probabilities.

Learner Analysis
The primary audience taking GSE Geometry is tenth graders. There could also be eleventh

graders that are taking the course again. Six of the units are dedicated to Geometry. The last unit

is Applications of Probability.

The ages of the learners are between 14 and 17 years with a majority being 15 and 16. The

primary audience will be approximately 60% females and 40% males. The learners include 58%

African-American, 38% Caucasian and 4% Hispanic or other race. Approximately 10% of

learners will have been diagnosed with a disability. These disabilities could be a deficiency in

math, reading or behavior issues.

All tenth graders will have taken ninth grade Algebra I the previous year. The unit, Describing

Data, included constructing graphical displays which consisted of dot plots, histograms and box

plots. Students created two-way frequency tables. Prior to ninth grade, the learners had not seen

probability or data since the seventh grade. The learners’ prior experience in probability is

understand the basic nature of probability, determining probabilities of simple and compound

events and developing probability models, organize and model simple situations involving

probability and read and understand frequency tables. There will be preassessment to determine

what the learners remember and what needs to be reviewed.

The learners will be familiar with the several concepts: sample space, outcomes, independent

events, compound events and probability (experimental and theoretical). In the past, I have

witnessed learners who struggled with the analytical part of algebra and geometry enjoy and

embrace this probability unit. The learners are motivated because of the connection to real life

problems.

I have access to previous state tests scores from 7th, 8th and 9th grades using LDS (Longitudinal

Data System). This can help me determine which students may struggle, the ones that are on the
“bubble” and the ones will succeed. This will also help me determine how to create lesson plans

and what I need to include.

Some common problems in probability that I have seen are that probability is between 0 and 1,

confusing independent and conditional probability, not a clear understanding of notation and

vocabulary, and not thinking if the answer makes sense.

During the year I will get to know these students. I will know their talents, weaknesses and

strengths. Of course, there are always high expectations of the learners succeeding in this unit

and in the course.

Task Analysis

There are two types of task analyses provided. The first is a topic analysis which will explain

what the instructional design will include. The second analysis is a procedural analysis. This

analysis provides steps on how to create a two-way frequency table. After the table has been

created students will be able to use the definitions and rules to answer questions about

independent events and conditional probabilities using the table. I will be the subject-matter

expert (SME). I have been teaching data analysis and probability in 9th and 10th grade since GPS

(Georgia Professional Standards) rolled around 8 years ago. I also teach Advanced

Mathematical Decision Making. In this class, we design and conduct statistical studies using

data. When Common Core was introduced three years ago, I attended training during summer

for Statistics.

Topic Analysis
 I. Create a two-way frequency table

A. Collect Data

1. Collect data within classroom

B. Construct two-way frequency table

1. Use Google Docs

II. Identify Independent Events

A. Define Independent Events: Events whose outcomes do not influence each

other

B. Answer probability questions

1. What is the probability a student does not drive?

2. What is the probability a student is male?

III. Identify Conditional Probability

A. Define Conditional Probability: The probability of an event A, given that

another event, B, has already occurred.

𝑃(𝑃∩𝑃)
B. Define Formula: 𝑃(𝐴丨𝑃) = 𝑃(𝑃)

1. On left hand side, the formula is read “the probability of A given B”

2. On the right hand side, the probability of A and B divided by the

probability of B.

C. Answer conditional probability questions

1. What is the probability a student drives given the student is male?

2. What is the probability a student is female given the student drives?

Procedural Analysis
I. Create a two-way frequency table

A. Collect data

1. Use question “Do you drive to school?”

2. Go to the board

3. Pick up dry erase marker

4. Place a tally mark if you are a boy or a girl

5. Place a tally mark if you drive to school or do not drive to school

6. Put down marker in tray

7. Pick up a ruler from the bin

8. Have a seat

9. Wait until all students have replied to the question

B. Create the two-way frequency table

1. Using a new document in Google Docs

2. Type at top of your paper “Two-way Frequency Table” on the first line

3. Type the topic “Drive to School” on the second line

4. Skip two lines

5. Click “Insert” tab

6. Find “Table” and highlight a 4 x 4 table

7. Label the two-way frequency table

a. The first row

(1) In the first cell, it is blank

(2) Second cell, type Drive

(3) Third cell, type Don’t Drive

 (4) Fourth cell, type Total

b. The second row

(1) In the first cell, type Male

(2) Second cell, type the number of males that drive

(3) Third cell, type the number of males that do not drive

(4) Fourth cell, type the total number of males

c. The third row

(1) In the first cell, type Female

(2) Second cell, type the number of females that drive

(3) Third cell, type the number of females that do not drive

(4) Fourth cell, type the total number of females

d. The fourth row

(1) In the first cell, type Total

(2) Second cell, type the total number of students that drive

(3) Third cell, type the total number of students that do not

drive

(4) Fourth cell, type the total number of students

8. Double check totals. The sum of the males and females should equal the sum

of the students that drive and don’t drive

Example:

Two-way Frequency Table

Drive to School
 Drive Don’t Drive Total

Male 5 10 15

Female 6 3 9

Total 11 13 24

Instructional Objectives

At the completion of this module:

● After collecting data, the learner will construct a two-way frequency table:

a. Using Google Docs, design a 4 x 4 table

b. Organize data in appropriate cells

● Examining a two-way frequency table, the learner will compute independent events and

conditional probability using the formula.

In the first objective using a ruler is a psychomotor domain and organizing data is a cognitive

domain.

Examining and computing in the second objective classifies as cognitive domain.

Assessments
This is part 4 from a task from the GSE Geometry, Unit 6: Probability

(https://www.georgiastandards.org/Georgia-Standards/Frameworks/Geometry-Unit-6.pdf p. 36).

The name of the task is The Conditions are Right. Parts 1, 2 and 3 are the introduction and

teacher-led instruction. Part 4 will be an assessment for the students. This assessments includes

conditional probability using a two-way frequency. Students will use parts 1 - 3 of the task as a

reference.

Probability of A given B

𝑷(𝑷∩𝑷)
P(A B)= 𝑷(𝑷)

Part 4 – Box Office

Movie executives collect lots of different data on the movies they show in order to determine

who is going to see the different types of movies they produce. This will help them make

decisions on a variety of factors from where to advertise a movie to what actors to cast. Below is

a two-way frequency table that compares the preference of Harry Potter and the Deathly

Hallows to Captain America: The First Avenger based upon the age of the moviegoer. 200

people were polled for the survey.

Fill in the two-way frequency table.

Prefers Harry Prefers Captain

Potter America Total

Under the age of 30 52 125

Age 30 or above 20

Total 107

Define each event in the table using the following variables:

H – A person who prefers Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

C – A person who prefers Captain America: The First Avenger

Y – A person under the age of 30

E – A person whose age is 30 or above

1. By looking at the table, but without making any calculations, would you say that there is

a relationship between age and movie preference? Why or why not?

2. Find the following probabilities. In terms of movie preference, explain what each

probability—or probabilities together in the case of b, c, and d—would mean to a movie

executive.

a . P(E)
 b. P(H) and P(C)

c. 𝑃(𝑃丨𝑃)and 𝑃(𝑃丨𝑃)

d. 𝑃(𝑃丨𝑃)and 𝑃(𝑃丨𝑃)

3. Summarize what a movie executive can conclude about age preference for these two movies

through knowing the probabilities that you have found.

Solutions to Part 4

Fill in the two-way frequency table.

Prefers Harry Prefers Captain

Potter America Total

Under the age of 30 73 52 125

Age 30 or above 20 55 75

Total 93 107 200

1. By looking at the table, but without making any calculations, would you say that there is

a relationship between age and movie preference? Why or why not?

There is sometimes a relationship. The Harry Potter column is skewed toward the younger

viewers, as 73 is more than triple 20, but the Captain America column is split evenly. For
Harry Potter, age is clearly a factor in terms of who watches, but for Captain America age is

not a factor.

2. Find the following probabilities. In terms of movie preference, explain what each

probability—or probabilities together in the case of b, c, and d—would mean to a movie

executive.

a . P(E)

77/200 = 0.385. Around 39% of moviegoers are over the age of 30. This would tell an

executive that they are more likely to be selling tickets to younger people. Knowing this may

tell executives that more money is to be made on movies geared toward younger generations.

b. P(H) and P(C)

P(H) = 93/200 = 0.465 and P(C) = 107/200 = 0.535. This would indicate that Captain

America is a more popular movie, but not by a lot.

c. 𝑃(𝑃丨𝑃)and 𝑃(𝑃丨𝑃)

P(C|Y) = 52/125 = 0.416 and P(H|Y) = 73/125 = 0.584. This indicates that young people are

about 17% more likely to go see Harry Potter (or a movie like it) than Captain America. This

confirms to movie executives that Harry Potter is a movie for younger generations.

d. 𝑃(𝑃丨𝑃)and 𝑃(𝑃丨𝑃)
P(E|C) = 55/107 = .514 and P(Y|C) = 52/107 = 0.486. This indicates that a person who has

gone to see Captain America is not likely to be a certain age, which would indicate that this

movie can be catered to crowds of any age.

3. Summarize what a movie executive can conclude about age preference for these two movies

through knowing the probabilities that you have found.

By looking at conditional probabilities, executives can conclude that certain movies, like

Harry Potter, are more likely to have viewers who are under the age of 30. Other fun movies,

such as Captain America, appeal to all ages.

The following assessment task came from www.mathshell.org. The students will create a two-

way frequency and answer questions. There is conditional probabilities and explaining answers

to check for understanding. The Help Sheet that follows is for differentiation. The Help Sheet

has a table for certain students to fill in. There are questions to help guide them. Students will

work with a partner.

Scoring Guide

Names _______________________________________________________________________
 0 points - 1 point - 2 points - 3 points -
beginning developing proficient mastery

Question 1 There is no or a There is some There is a clear There is a clear,

vague written explanation. effective
explanation. explanation or explanation with
explanation is details.
missing steps or
rationale.

Question 2 There is no or a There is some There is a clear There is a clear,

vague written explanation. effective
explanation. explanation or explanation with
explanation is details.
missing steps or
rationale.

Question 3 There is no or a There is some There is a clear There is a clear,

vague written explanation. effective
explanation. explanation or explanation with
explanation is details.
missing steps or
rationale.

_______________/12 points

The following assessment task came from www.map.mathshell.org. The students will create a

two-way frequency and answer questions. There is conditional probabilities and explaining

answers to check for understanding. The Help Sheet that follows is for differentiation. The Help

Sheet has a table for certain students to fill in. There are questions to help guide them. Students

will work with a partner.

Medical Testing - Assessment Task
A new medical test has been invented to help doctors find out whether or not someone has got a
deadly disease.
Experiments have shown that:
• If a person has the disease, then the test result will always be positive.
• If a person does not have the disease, then the probability of the test being wrong is 5%.
This is called a false positive result.
Suppose the test is tried out in two different countries: Country A and Country B. A sample of
one thousand people is tested from each country.
• In Country A, 20% of the sample has the disease.
• In Country B, only 2% of the sample has the disease.

1. Suppose someone has the test and the result is positive.

Does that person have the disease? Explain your answer.

2. How many people do not have the disease in the sample from Country A and for Country B.
Explain your answer.

3. Create (2) two-way frequency tables for Country A and Country B.

4. Find the following probabilities for both countries. D: The person has the disease, ND: The
person does not have the disease, PT: Positive test, NT: Negative test
a. P( ND and PT)

b. P(PT)
 c. 𝑃(𝑃𝑃丨𝑃𝑃)

Suppose a patient from each sample is told that they have tested positive.
What is the probability that the test is wrong given he tested positive? Is your answer the same
for each country? Explain your reasoning fully.

HELP SHEET
Try to complete the table below for each country:

Country A Number of people Number one people Total

who test positive who test negative

Number of people
who have the disease

Number of people
who do not have the
disease
Total

Country B Number of people Number one people Total

who test positive who test negative

Number of people
who have the disease

Number of people
who do not have the
disease

Total

How many people in total take the test? Where is this shown in your table?

Figure out some probabilities from your table. Ex. P(D), P( NT)

Answers to Medical Testing

1. This is not necessarily true. It is true if they have the disease then the result is

positive, but the reverse if not necessarily true.

2. In Country A, 20% of the people have the disease. 80% of the people do not have

the disease. . 𝑷𝑷 ∗ 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷 = 𝑷𝑷𝑷 800 people do not have the disease. In Country

B, 2% of the people have the disease. . 𝑷𝑷 ∗ 𝑷𝑷𝑷𝑷 = 𝑷𝑷𝑷 980 people do not have

the disease
 3.
Country A Number of people Number one people Total
who test positive who test negative

Number of people 200 0 200

who have the disease

Number of people 40 760 800

who do not have the
disease

Total 240 760 1000

Country B Number of people Number one people Total

who test positive who test negative

Number of people 20 0 200

who have the disease

Number of people 49 931 980

who do not have the
disease

Total 69 931 1000

4. a. P( ND and PT) Country A = .04 Country B = .049

b. P(PT) Country A = .24 Country B = .069

c. 𝑃(𝑃𝑃丨𝑃𝑃) Country A = .17 Country B = .71

The probability of the test being wrong given he tested positive is .17 for Country A. The

probability of test being wrong given he tested positive is .71 for Country B.
Scoring Guide

Names _______________________________________________________________________

0 points - 1 point - 2 points - 3 points -

beginning developing proficient mastery

Question 1 There is no or a There is some There is a clear There is a clear,

vague written explanation. effective
explanation. explanation or explanation with
explanation is details.
missing steps or
rationale.
Question 2 There is no or a There is some There is a clear There is a clear,
vague written explanation. effective
explanation. explanation or explanation with
explanation is details.
missing steps or
rationale.

Question 3 Two-way Two-way Two-way Two-way

frequency tables frequency tables frequency tables frequency tables
are not set up or are not complete. are complete are complete
complete. with one or two with zero errors.
errors.

Question 4 Calculations are Calculations are Calculations are Calculations are

not worked with worked with no correct with a correct with a
no explanation explanation. clear clear and
explanation. effective
explanation.

_______________/16 points
Content Sequencing and Instructional Strategies

Sequence Description Objective

1 Construct a two-way frequency table 1

2 Compute conditional probabilities and independent 2

events

Objective 1

After collecting data, the learner will construct a two-way frequency table. Using Google Docs,

the learner will design a 4 x 4 table and organize the data in appropriate cells.

(Concept/Procedure)

Initial Presentation. Describe how to organize data by using task The Conditions Are Right

(parts 1, 2, and 3). Demonstrate how to fill in cells and how columns and rows intersect in

Google Docs.

Generative Strategy. Give learner data to create frequency table. Ask learner to create table in

Google Docs and complete.

Objective 2

Examining a two-way frequency table, the learner will compute independent events and

conditional probability using the formula. (Procedure)

Initial Presentation. Explain formula that was introduced in The Conditions Are Right task.

Demonstrate examples of how to set up formula. Explain line between A and B means “given”

𝑃(𝑃丨𝑃). Use frequency table to help find 𝑃(𝑃 ∩ 𝑃).

 𝑷(𝑷∩𝑷)
Generative Strategy. Set up formula for conditional probability . First, find the
𝑷(𝑷)

denominator 𝑃 (𝑃). Then, find the numerator 𝑃(𝑃 ∩ 𝑃). Give learner examples of independent

events to work. Then, give learner examples of conditional probabilities to work.

For differentiation, examples that are given symbols will be highlighted. Different examples will

be given when delivering the content.

Instructional Design Summary

To engage I will use the following Venn diagram to show the representation of the probabilities

of 𝑃(𝑃), 𝑃(𝑃) 𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑃(𝑃 𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑃). This is to show that the 𝑃(𝑃 𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑃)is the intersection

of A and B. Ask questions, “What is the probability that someone in your class went to the

movies?”

The objectives will be presented in Google Docs for students access. Video presentations, audio

presentations, tasks on Word and discussions will be used to deliver content. First students will

look a two-way frequency tables using the video from Learn Zillion:
https://learnzillion.com/lesson_plans/5448 . An activity sheet will be provided for students to

fill in an incomplete two-way frequency table. Then students will create their own two-way

frequency table in Google Docs. This is the first objective of constructing a two-way frequency

table.

Second, students will watch the video on conditional probability:

https://learnzillion.com/lesson_plans/5488-calculate-conditional-probabilities-using-a-two-way-

table. Students will use The Conditions are Right Task, parts 1, 2, and 3 to activate prior

knowledge from 7th grade probability. This lesson refers to the second objective of using a two-

way frequency table to compute conditional probability. Google Docs will also provide more

examples of conditional probability. Part 4 and The Medical Testing activity will be used for

assessment. There are two different Medical Testing assessments for differentiation. Feedback

will be through Google Docs, email and/or discussion.

In this lesson, UDL and differentiation are incorporated. The videos and tasks represent the

Representation of UDL. There are graphics and animation. Feedback represents the Action and

Expression of UDL. Engagement is represented by asking questions and videos.

Instruction Description

Gain Attention Asking questions, videos, tasks

Inform of Objectives At beginning of lesson in Google Docs

Activate Prior Knowledge Asking questions and tasks

Deliver Content Videos, tasks, discussions, activities, Google

Docs

Sequence Lesson will be presented and activity will

follow each objective to assess
Feedback Feedback is provided after activities

UDL and Differentiation Different activities will be provided to help

learners. Representation, Action and
Expression, and Engagement are incorporated.

Formative Evaluation Plan

The SME for the Formative Evaluation Plan is Candace Chomskis. I have worked with Mrs.

Chomskis for seven years. She is the head of the math department. Mrs. Chomskis has been

teaching math for 25 years. She has taught both middle school and high school grades. Mrs.

Chomskis has a Master’s degrees in Math education and a Specialist’s degree in Instructional

Technology. She was Teacher of the Year for our school system in 2009. We have a close math

department. We collaborate and plan with the subjects that we teach. We are constantly running

ideas by each other to see what can make our lessons better. She is someone I can easily go to

for guidance. The feedback she provides is helpful and thorough.

The survey for the SME:

Content Appropriateness and Accuracy

1. Was the instruction well written?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

2. Did assessment methods correlate with instructional content and approaches?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

 1 2 3 4

3. Were the objectives clear and measurable?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

4. Was the content accurate and informative?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

Completeness

5. Did the instruction provide plenty of detail for the learner?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

6. What, if any, changes (added or taken away) that should be made? Explain.

Usability and Appeal

7. Does the instruction motivate the learner? Explain.

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4
 8. Is the module visually appealing?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

9. Was the website easy to navigate?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

The survey given to the SME will help if any changes need to be made. The assessments that I

give my learners will contain pretest, discussions, and online classwork will be used as well. I

will be checking accuracy.

Learner’s survey:

1. Was the module easy to navigate?

Very easy Somewhat Easy Average Somewhat Challenging

Challenging

1 2 3 4 5

2. Rate the the level of difficulty of the content.

 Very easy Somewhat Easy Average Somewhat Challenging
Challenging

1 2 3 4 5

3. What was your overall impression of instruction?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

4. Did the assessments correlate with the content?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

5. Was the the time required to complete the instruction appropriate?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

6. Were the materials easily accessible?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4

7. How was your general appeal of the materials?

Poor Fair Good Excellent

1 2 3 4