MAT 3 – Statistics & Probability 4th Quarter

reviewer
2 TYPES OF INFERENTIAL STATISTICS:
1. Estimation (point estimate and interval estimate)
2. HYPOTHESIS TESTING - It is an inferential statistics which is
very important application tool to real life which often times
needs analysis about the problem.
Step 7: Conclusion
Since the computed test of statistic (z/t value) of
_____ lies (does not lie) under the critical value of _____ with
α of ______, thus reject Ho (do not reject Ho). Therefore, (just
copy the hypothesis that you do not reject).

Hypothesis Testing or Statistical Hypothesis test – a process ==================================================

of making inference or generalization on population If Ha Then Ho
parameters based on the results of the study on samples. > ≤
One tailed test
< ≥
HYPOTHESIS - It is an educated guess that may or may not be ≠ = ----------- Two tailed test
accepted. It is an assumption, prediction or conclusion that
needs hypothesis testing. Level of Confidence (1-α) Level of Significance (α)
99% 1% or 0.01
2 TYPES OF HYPOTHESIS: 95% 5% or 0.05
NULL HYPOTHESIS - states that there is no significant 90% 10% or 0.10
difference or relationship between variables.
- Pertaining to the parameter of the population If α is 0.10, then the researcher is 90% confident!
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS - states that there is significant Level of significance – corresponds to the area in the critical
difference or relationship between variables. A claim that region
disagrees with the null hypothesis.
Example: A researcher is 99% confident (1-α) to his claim,
7 STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING find the level of significance (α).
Step 1: State the Ho and Ha hypotheses Solution:
Step 2: Level of significance (α) 1-α = 99%
Step 3: Test of statistic 1-α = 0.99
z-test if sample size is large, n≥30 1 – 0.99 = α
t-test if sample sizeis small, n<30 0.01 = α
=================================================
Tailed/Means: CORRELATION – “co” means together and “relation”
One tailed Two tailed (relationship)
(1 mean) (2 means) - It is a relationship between 2 variables that are
– directional test – non directional test linked together
- Correlation does not imply “cause and effect”
𝑋̅− 𝜇 ̅(𝑋
̅̅̅− 𝜇) √𝑁 𝑋1 −𝑋2 relationship
z = 𝜎/ or z = z=
√ 𝑁 𝜎 2 2
𝑆 𝑆
√ 1+ 2
𝑁1 𝑁2 TYPES OF CORRELATION
Positive – both variables increase
𝑋̅− 𝜇 Negative – one variable increases the other decreases
t= 𝑠𝑑/√𝑁 Zero (No) Correlation – not related to each other. Data points
are very spread out using scatter plot diagram.
Step 4: Critical value – it signifies the area of rejection
*Z test critical value (refer to p.71) Scatter plot diagram – data are graphically presented thru
coordinates to show the relationship of two
*T test critical value (refer to p.109 ) variables
with degrees of freedom: df= n-1 (one sample mean)
df = (n1 + n2) – 2 for 2 independent samples Examples of correlation in real life:
 The more time you spend running on a treadmill,
Note: only t-test requires degrees of freedom the more calories you will burn.
 Taller people have larger shoe sizes and shorter
Step 5: Critical Region – refer to critical value and the level of people have smaller shoe sizes.
significance (shade only the critical value then locate the  The longer your hair grows; the more shampoo
computed test of statistic on the curve) you will need.
 The less time I spend marketing my business, the
Step 6: Decision -------------Rules: (Reject and Do not reject)
fewer new customers I will have.
Reject Ho – if the computed test of statistic is greater
 The more hours you spend in direct sunlight, the
than (lies under) the critical value
more severe your sunburn.
Do not reject Ho - if the computed test of statistic is
 As the temperature goes up, ice cream sales also
less than (does not lie under) the critical value
go up.
TYPE OF ERRORS
PEARSON PRODUCT-MOMENT CORRELATION (Pearson r)
Type I error – denoted by α. Ho is TRUE but decided to reject.
- derived by a British Statistician named Karl Pearson
Type II error – denoted by β. Ho is FALSE but decided to
- The most familiar statistical parametric tool in quantifying
accept/favor (did not reject)
the linear relationship between 2 random variables, x and y.

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MAT 3 – Statistics & Probability 4th Quarter

reviewer
Formula: Conclusion / Interpretation:
Based on the computed value of r equals to +0.57
which is less than the tabulated value of 0.878, thus do not
reject Ho. Therefore, there is no significant relationship
between the ages and glucose level.
Furthermore, based on the result of r implies
moderately positive correlation.

==================================================
Verbal interpretation of r
Value of r Strength of Correlation
+1 Perfect Positive Correlation
Example: +0.71 to +0.99 Strong positive correlation
Determine if there is a correlation between ages and the +0.51 to +0.70 Moderately positive
glucose level. Use 5% level of significance. correlation
+0.31 to +0.50 Weak positive correlation
Age (x) Glucose level (y) +0.01 to +0.30 Negligible positive
43 99 correlation
21 65 0 No correlation
42 75 -0.01 to -0.30 Negligible negative
57 87 correlation
59 81 -0.31 to -0.50 Weak negative correlation
-0.51 to -0.70 Moderately negative
Step 1: State the Ho and Ha hypotheses correlation
Ho: There is no significant relationship between ages and -0.71 to -0.99 Strong negative correlation
glucose level. -1 Perfect negative Correlation
Ha: There is significant relationship between ages and glucose
level. ==============================================
⎕
CALCULATOR SHORTCUT: Calc with ⎕ function
Step 2: Determine the (rt) Tabular value. (see page 119)
Degrees of freedom = n-2 Press Mode – select 2 STAT
df = 5 – 2 = 3 Level of significance: α = 0.05 Press 2
Then type in the data
So rt = 0.878 For X column:
Let say 43 then press =
Step 3: Determine the computed value (by completing the Just continue up until the last data
table)
Glucose XY X2 Y2 For Y column:
Age (x) Level (y) Press right arrow to go to Y column.
43 99 43x99 = 432 = 992 = Then type in the data
4257 1849 9801 Let say 99 then press =
21 65
42 75 Press AC -------------finding the sum
57 87 Press Shift
59 81 Click 1
Select 3: Sum
∑X = ∑Y = ∑XY = 18510 ∑ X2 = ∑ Y2 =
222 407 10784 33781
Then select the desired sum (summation) ∑
Number of data pairs: n =5
Let say ∑XY, then press =
Compute correlation coefficient: rc
Press AC, then
r = 5(18510) – [(222)(407) ÷
Repeat the process of finding the ∑
√⌊(5)(10784) − (222)2 ⌋ ⌊(5)(33781) − (407)2 ⌋
==============================================
r= [92550 – 90354] ÷ CALCULATOR SHORTCUT: Calc with a b/c function
√[(53920) − (49284)][(168905) − (165649)] Press Mode – find REG 3
r = 2196 ÷ √15094816 Select Lin 1
r = 0.57 Moderately positive correlation
Type in the X and Y data: let say 43 , 99
Step 4: State the conclusion / interpretation Then press M+
Decision: Repeat the process up until all data are encoded
a) rc > rt ------ reject Ho
If the computed r coefficient is greater than the Press Shift -------------finding the sum
tabular value rt, reject Ho Click 1 – for sum or STAT
b) rc < rt ------- do not reject Ho Then select the desired ∑
Press = to see the sum
On the given example: 0.57 < 0.878
rc < rt, do not reject Ho Repeat the process of finding the desired ∑
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MAT 3 – Statistics & Probability 4th Quarter

reviewer
============================================== Conclusion:
CALCULATOR SHORTCUT: Other calcuLator model not Five years from now, the enrollment will be 1664 in ABC
mentioned above please do check your MANUAL. University. The graph shows the curve line of the enrollment
============================================== of ABC University.

LINEAR REGRESSION
Regression Analysis – a powerful tool in predicting the value
of one variable to the given value of another variable, and
those variables are related to each other.

Formula: y = a + bx

(∑y)(∑𝑥 2 )−(∑x)(∑xy) 𝑛∑xy−(∑x)(∑y)

a= b=
𝑛 (∑𝑥 2 )−(∑𝑥)2 𝑛(∑𝑥2 )− (∑𝑥)2
n = number of data pairs

Example:
Examine the following data, showing the enrollment of ABC ================================================
University for the past 5 years. Determine the enrollment 5 Difference between parametric & non-parametric test
years from now and the curve line.
Basis for Parametric Test Non Parametric
# of years (X) Enrollment (Y) Comparison Test
Meaning A statistical test, in A statistical test
1 950 which specific used in the case of
assumptions are non-metric
2 1020 made about the independent
population. variables
3 1150 Basis of test statistic Distribution Arbitrary – “thru
judgement”
4 1575 Measurement level Interval or ratio Nominal or ordinal
- quantitative - qualitative
5 1657 Measure of central Mean Median
tendency
Information about Completely known Unavailable
population
Solution:
Complete the table Applicability Variables – data Variables and
# of years Enrollment X2 xy item Attributes -
(X) (Y) (quality)

1 950 12 = 1 1(950) = 950 Correlation test Pearson (r) Spearman (ρ)

2 1020
A. Parametric Test
3 1150 If the test concerns mean/s, some parametric tests are:
1. z - test
4 1575 2. t – test
3. paired t - test
5 1657 4. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
5. Pearson r
∑x = 15 ∑y = 6352 ∑ X2=55 ∑xy = 21025
B. Non-Parametric Test
Some non-parametric tests are:
Find a: follow the formula 1. Sign Test
a = 679.7 2. Wilcoxon signed-rank test
3. Wilcoxon rank-sum test
Find b: follow the formula 4. Kruskal-Wallis test
b = 196.9 5. Chi-square test
6. Spearman
Substitute values to the regression equation:
y = a + bx
y = 679.7 + 196.9x

Solve for five years (x = 5)

y = 679.7 + 196.9(5)
y = 1664.2 or 1664 ----------------Note: “round off”

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