Probability

Evelyne Natalie Wijaya 23101810023

Cindy Angelia 23101810038
Kalisa Fitri Ramadhanti 23101810043
 Cups and Saucers
A tea set has four cups and saucers with
two cups and saucers in each two different
colors. If the cups are placed at random on
the saucers, what is the probability that no
cups is on a saucer of the same color?

1 1
x x 1 x 1
2 3
1
=
6
Suppose the cups are A, B, C and D. Meanwhile the saucers are 1, 2, 3, 4 where the color
of the letter is the color of the cup or saucer. There are only four ways to place the cup
onto the saucers with desired conditions.
• (A, 1) , (B, 2) , (C, 3) , (D, 4)
• (A, 1) , (B, 2) , (C, 4) , (D, 3)
• (A, 2) , (B, 1) , (C, 3) , (D, 4)
• (A, 1) , (B, 2) , (C, 4) , (D, 3)
To place them, there are 4 ways to place a cup on saucer A, which leaves to 3 ways to place
a cup on saucer B. Then there are 2 ways left to place a cup on saucer C and there is only
1 way to place a cup on saucer D after we place the other cups & saucers.
4! = 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24 ways
So the probabilities are 4 ways out of 24 ways for the desired conditions.

4 1
=
24 6
 Family planning
A woman planning her family considers
the following schemes on the assumption
that boys and girls are equally likely at
each delivery:
a. Have three children
b. Bear children until the first girl is born
or until three are born, whichever is
sooner and then stop
c. Bear children until there is one of each
sex or until there are three, whichever
is sooner then stop
B = Boy G = Girl

a.
{( , , ),( , , ),( , , ),( , , ),
( , , )( , , )( , , ),( , , )}
{(G, G , G) , (G , G , B) , (G , B , G) , (G , B , B) , (B , B , B), (B , B , G), (B , G , B), (B , G , G)}

b. {( ),( , , ),( , , , ),( , , )}

{(G), (B , G), (B , B , G), (B , B , B)}
B = Boy G = Girl

c.
{( , ),( , , ),( , , ),( , ),
( , , ),( , , )}
{(B , G), (B , B , G), (B , B , B), (G , B), (G , G , G), (G , G , B)}
 craps
You roll two fair dice. If the sum of the
number shown is 7 or 11, you win :
• If it is 2,3, or 12, you lose.
• If it is another number j, you continue
to roll two dice until the sum is j or 7,
whichever is sooner.
• If it is 7, you lose ; if it is j, you win.
What is the probability (p) that you win?
WHAT WE KNOW?
If the sum of die are 2, 3, 12 the we lose
&
So, P(2)= '(
)
P(3)= '(
&
P(12)= '(
*
So the probability that we lose are '(
What is the probability that you win at the first
1 2 3 4 5 6
attempt?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
The sum that the dice shows 7 and 11: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
6 2
P(7)= 36 P(11)= 36 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Probability that you win on our first attempt will
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
be
6 2 8 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P(Win at 1st attempt)= 36 + 36 = 36
Now, what if the J is 4 or 10? Now, what if the J is 5 or 9?
*
The probability of gaining 5 or 9 as the 'point' =
1 '(
The probability of gaining 4 as the 'point' = And the probability of getting 7 =
(
12
1 '(
And the probability of getting 7 = *
The probability of game continuing = 1 - '( -
(
=
&'
6
1 1 3 '( &5
The probability of game continuing = 1 – 12 - 6 = So the probability of winning in this case is
4
9
So the probability of winning in this case is 6 )
1 S∞= = :;
<: =>
𝑎 1 &78 &7<=
S ∞ = 1−𝑟 = 12
3 =3
1−4 So, the probability of getting 5 or 9 and then winning is
* )
So, the probability of getting 4 or 10 and then winning ('( x >) 𝑥 2
1 1
is (12 x 3) 𝑥 2
 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

What is the probability of winning:

Now, what if the J is 6 or 8?
5
The probability of gaining 6 or 8 as the 'point' = 36 5
P(Win)=P(Win at 1st attempt) =
6 '(
And the probability of getting 7 = 36 & &
P(Get 4 or 10 and win) = (&) x ') 𝑥 2
5 6 25
The probability of game continuing = 1 - 36 - 36 = 36
* )
So the probability of winning in this case is P(Get 5 or 9 and win) = ('( x >) 𝑥 2
5
𝑎 5
S∞= = 36
25 =
1−𝑟 1− 11 > >
36 P(Get 6 or 8 and win) = ('( x &&) 𝑥 2
So, the probability of getting 6 or 8 and then
5 5
winning is ( 36 x 11 ) 𝑥 2 ))*
495
 Health plan
An insurer offers a health plan to the employees
of a large company. As part of this plan the
individual employees may choose exactly t wo of
the supplementary coverages A, B and C, as
they may choose no supplementary coverage.
The proportions of the company’s employees
that choose coverage A, B and C are ¼ , 1/3 and
5/12 respectively. Determine the probability that
a randomly chosen employee will choose no
supplementary coverage
a. 0
*&
b. &**
&
c. )
E
d. &**
G
e. E
 2 of the supplementary or not at all :
A B P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A U C) – P(A U B) – P(B U C) +
0
0 P(A U B U C) = 0
0 1 1 1 1 6 1
! = ! ! ∩ ! − !(!) = 1− !+!+! = 1− + + =1− =
4 6 12 4 12 2
1
! =! !∩! −! ! =
0 3 The probability that a randomly
5
C ! =! !∩! −! ! = chosen employee will choose no
12
supplementary coverage is
! ! ! ! ! !
α+ ! = ! + ! = ! − ! = − ! + ! = + ! =
! ! !" ! ! !"
1

! ! ! ! ! ! ! 2
!+ != ! + ! = ! + ! = + ! = ! = −
! ! !" ! ! !" !

! ! ! ! ! !
!+ != ! + ! = − ! = ! = ! = =
!" !" ! !" !" !

 A professor
At a certain university, every year 8 to 12
professor are granted University Merit Awards.
This year among the nominated faculty are Drs.
Jones, Smith, and Brown. Let A, B, and C
denote the events, respectively, that these
professors will be given awards. In term of A, B
, C, find an expression for the event that the
award go es to :
a. Only Dr. Jones
b. At least one of the three
c. None of the three
d. Exactly t wo of them
e. Exactly one of them
f. Either Drs. Jones or Smith but not both
Jones Smith Jones Smith Jones Smith

Brown Brown Brown

a. {A} b. {A ∪ B ∪ C} c. {A∪B∪C}c
 Jones Smith Jones Smith Jones Smith

Brown Brown Brown

d. {(A∩B)∪(A∩C)∪ e. {A∪B∪C}∩{(A∩B) f. {C ∪ A ∩ B }c ∩ { A ∪ B }
(B∩C) ∩{A∩B∩C}c ∪(A∩C)∪(B∩C)}c
Public health researcher
A public health researcher examines the
medical record of a group of 937 men who died
in 1999 and discovers that 210 of the men died
from causes related to heart disease. More over
that 312 of the 937 men had at least one parent
who suffered from heart disease, and of these
312 men, 102 died from causes related to heart
disease. Determine the probability that a man
randomly selected from this group died of
causes related to heart disease, given that
neither of his parents suffered from heart
disease
a. 0.115
b. 0.171
c. 0.224
d. 0.327
e. 0.514
Related to heart Parents 937 men died in 1999
disease suffered • 210 men à died caused by related to heart
disease
• 312 men à died caused by at least one of
their parent suffered from heart disease
• 102 à died caused related to heart
108 102 210 disease
210 – 102 = 108
517 937 – 108 – 102 – 210 = 517

All men died caused by heart disease and parents DO NOT suffered from heart disease
517 + 108 = 625 men
The total of men that died because related to heart disease and parents DO NOT suffered
from heart disease = 108 men
So the total of men related to heart disease and parents DO NOT suffered from heart
disease
108
= 0.1728 (B)
625
 Insurance company
An insurance company examines its pool of
auto insurance customers and gather the
following information :
All customers insure at least one car
• 70% of the customers insure more than one
car
• 20% of the customers insure a sports car
• of those who insure more than one car, 15%
insure sports car
Calculate the probability that a randomly
selected customer insure exactly one car and
that car is not a sports car
a. 0.13
b. 0.21
c. 0.24
d. 0.25
e. 0.30
 All customer that insure more than one car
More than
Sports car and sports car
one car 70
x 15 = 10.5 %
100
All customer that insure ONLY more than one
59.5% 10.5% 9.5% car
70% - 10.5% = 59.5%
All customer that insure ONLY a sport car
20.5
20% - 10.5% = 9.5%
Customer insure exactly one car and that car IS NOT a sport car
20.5 100
x = 0.205 ≈ 0.21 (B)
100 100

all insurance
consumers
all customer that have one car
and that car is not a sport car