PARMANU: THE STORY OF POKHRAN

PROJECT MANAGEMENT ASSINGMENT

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Ques 1. Describe briefly project risk, its identification, assessment, priority, risk response
planning and risk management methods.

Ans:-
To make India a nuclear power, Aswath undertook a project of detonating several nuclear
warheads in the underground shafts of the Pokhran range. The project was to be done in absolute
secrecy and amidst changing political landscape. On top of that, the same project had been tried
before in 1995, but failed due to a lack in planning – which made the current project much more
challenging. The risks identified with this project were:-

▪ Improper assembly of the warhead vessels: - This is a technical risk. The nuclear
explosion was supposed to be a controlled one, in an underground shaft. The
core of the bomb, a plutonium bomb, is quite unstable and has to be housed
safely in a vessel that is capable of stabilizing it till the time of the explosion. The
BARC scientist recruited in this project had the job of securing such warhead
vessels and assessing the fitness of said vessels until the test is conducted. In
this case, risk impact was catastrophic, with several cities buried underground
and millions of civilians dead. The probability of the risk occurring was medium to
low. This had a high priority in the Risk register checklist. In case the catastrophe
happened, the response plan to send in the Indian Army to support and evacuate
the survivors. To mitigate the risk involved, the scientist was to supervise every
vessel the warheads went in, and also, the army bought a huge quantity of
onions to soak in the radiation in case of any unplanned fallout.

▪ Poor condition of the shafts:- This is also a technical risk. The team wanted to
detonate the nuclear bombs in three old shafts, which were to be used in the
earlier test, and they also wanted to use three dry wells in the region as shafts.
The old shafts were filled with water due to years of non-maintenance, which
meant that they had to be drained out. Here also, the risk impact would be
catastrophic and high risk priority, as detonating the bomb is poorly maintained
shafts would cause radiation leakage, affecting army officials and people living
around the range. The DRDO & BARC scientists were in charge of modifying and
repairing the shafts to properly conduct the test. Also, to manage the risk
involved, the scientists maintained a strict watch on the processes, from the
horsepower of the pumps to soldering the steel plates inside the shaft.

▪ Getting caught by American Lacrosse Spy satellite :- This is an external risk. To

stop India from testing nuclear warheads, USA had assigned a powerful spy
satellite that could capture and record even the minute details going on around
Pokhran. Therefore, the team could not move freely with the project as and when
they wanted. Here, the project risk was medium to high, as it could result in USA
imposing strict sanctions on India and also, India’s image would get tarnished in
front of the world. USA backed Pakistan and China also contributed to this
external risk with China conducting several nuclear tests and Pakistan launching
a ballistic missile to welcome India’s newly elected Prime minister. Probability of
risk occurrence was high as the satellite was focused on the region for 22 out of
24 hours. Risk priority was high, and to mitigate said risk, Aswath used civilian
ISA to identify the blindspots in the satellite rotation and worked exclusively in the
1 hour blindspot. Later, when they had to expedite the project, the team spread
false reports about a war in Kashmir, so that the satellites would be re-tasked to
Kashmir region, allowing them to work in 8 hour shifts per day.
▪ Presence of intelligence agents in the area:- This is also an external risk. As
many neighboring countries did not have a favorable view towards India testing
nuclear warheads, they stationed their agents in and around various army
hotspots, Pokhran being one of them. Considering the secrecy of the project,
leakage of information posed a serious threat. The team could not just arrive at
Pokhran and start their work. The probability of risk occurrence would be
Medium-to-High, seeing that agents from different agencies were working in
tandem to sabotage the project. Risk impact would be medium and risk priority
would be medium to high. Risk management measures included the team
members assuming code names pertaining to Pandavas and false identities of
ASI officials and later, that of Army officials.

▪ Inadequate time-frame for implementation and uncertain natural conditions: This

is an instance of an external as well as organizational risk. Due to the changing
political scenario in India, where the coalition government was at risk, they
couldn't stick to their original plan and were forced to expedite the process. This
created unforeseen problems in the system. Reducing the time frame created
extra strain of different arms of the project – assembly, cabling, shaft repairing
and other logistical areas. In one case, generators couldn’t handle the extra load
and the region went into a blackout. Probability of risk occurrence was high, risk
impact would be medium and risk priority would be medium to high. Adding on to
that, the region was prone to frequent sandstorms which made it difficult to work
in day, as the storms would expose the hidden track marks, allowing Americans
to know about the project. To manage this risk, the team spread war hysteria
across the country, so that external intelligence agencies would focus on a
different region (Kashmir). To combat the sandstorms exposing the project, the
team relied on the discipline and work ethic of the army, where the soldiers would
spring into action and cover up any proof of their workings immediately.
Ques2. Explain the project risk in “Parmanu: The Story of Pokhran”. Explain the risk
mitigation strategy in detail.

Ans 2: There were multiple risks involved in conducting the Pokhran nuclear test, considering that this
was the second test and the first test failed miserably, resulting in the humiliation of India in front of
the international community. After that, USA started keeping a strict watch over the region, making it
difficult for India to undertake any project without them knowing about it. Major risks involved were:
Condition of the blast shafts – The team wanted to test six nuclear warheads but the shafts which
were made for the first attempt of the test were in shambles, with the plates getting rusty and water
filling up the holes. Three dry wells were identified for the test but they needed to be prepared before
conducting the test. This required high horsepower pumps to be stationed at the site, laying of electric
cables to detonate the bomb and to weld lead plates in the shafts, which brings us to the second risk;
Getting caught by the American Spy satellites and on ground agents. If a work of such intense
logistical support was to be undertaken, it could easily be identified and stopped by the US
government. Agents from Pakistan and USA were also present on-site, gathering intel on the team’s
activities and reporting back to their superiors. Absolute secrecy was needed to complete the project.
IB helped in securing the site and was responsible for preventing information leak. The team assumed
false identities and had code names and passcodes assigned to them. Also, they took the help of
Indian Space Association to identify particular blind spots in the satellite’s rotation so that they could
carry out their daily activities. Improper blast of the warheads was also a risk, which could demolish
the entire Pokhran area and create a harmful radiation zone which would kill all living beings nearby.
So, the tests were conducted underground at the safe depth and the army purchased large quantities
of onions to soak in the radiation fallout.
The biggest risk was secrecy. The question arrived, “how do you avoid the test site detection” by
the highly powerful American satellites?” To this, Dr. Ranganathan arrived at a solution.
He suggested that the two American satellites which relayed information to each other, had a
blind spot window, one each in the day and at night-time. Since day-time was too risky, all
operational activities related to setting up the test site and making the shaft wells ready
(codenamed White House, Kumbhakaran and Taj Mahal). Jeeps having wipe out mats
attached to them would ferry the members and the mats would wipe out the jeep-tracks, to
leave no trail.
A risk that arose was unexpected project closure. This was because the then president of the
USA, Bill Clinton attempted to put political pressure on the Prime Minister of India, Atal
Behari Vajpayee. To counter this, Dr. Raina promised Shukla, to speed up the completion of
the project and attempt to complete it only in 10 days.
The frequent sandstorms that were a constant feature of the Thar desert, threatened to derail
the secrecy of the project, by blowing the covers off the installations. This was mitigated by
working in the daytime blind-spot, to replace the covers, even though working in day-time
itself was a risk.