70 Chapter  4.

2 : Probability Distribution

Chapter 4.2
Probability Distribution (m¤¢vebv web¨vm)

 †h me †jL‡Ki eB †_‡K cÖ‡kœi aiY †h mv‡ji cixÿvq

AsK/w_Dwi †bqv n‡q‡Q: G‡m‡Q

wØc`x web¨vm
 Abdul Aziz (2016)
 NU Questions (up to 2017) ˆcumy web¨vm

 Binomial Distribution: (wØc`x web¨vm)t †h web¨v‡m †Póvi msL¨v 30 Gi Kg,

†Póv¸‡jv ¯^vaxb, cÖwZevi †Póvq mdjZv I wedjZvi m¤¢vebv aªæeK _v‡K Ges
m¤¢vebv؇qi mgwó GK (1) nq, †mB web¨vm‡K wØc`x web¨vm e‡j|

x n−x
Probability function1, P(x) ¿ nc p q
x

GLv‡b , n = cixÿ‡Yi †Póvi msL¨v; p = mdjZvi m¤¢vebv; q = wedjZvi m¤¢vebv, q=1− p ;

x = wØc`x PjK|

D`vniYt GKwU †Kv¤úvwbi 10wU `ª‡e¨i g‡a¨ 6 `ªe¨ ÎæwUc~Y©| GLb 5wU `ªe¨ †bqv n‡j
3wU fvj cvIqvi m¤¢vebv KZ?
Solution:
10−6 4
Here, n=5 ; p= = =0.40 ; q=1−p=1−.40=0.60 ; x=3
10 10
x n−x
∴ P (x =3) ¿ nc p q x
¿ 5c (0.40)3 (0.60)5−3 =10 ×0.064 × 0.36=0.2304
3

 Poisson Distribution: (ˆcumy web¨vm)t wØc`x web¨v‡mi †Póvi msL¨v n-Gi gvb
Lye eo Ges cÖwZevi †Póvq mdjZvi m¤¢vebv p-Gi gvb Lye Kg Ges Mo gvb np
mmxg n‡j wØc`x web¨v‡mi mxwgZ iƒc‡K ˆcumy web¨vm e‡j|

e−m . m x
Probability function, P(x) ¿ ;
x!
GLv‡b, m= ˆcumy web¨v‡mi civwgwZ2; m=np . p= mdjZvi m¤¢vebv; n= cixÿ‡Yi msL¨v/
†gvU msL¨v]

1
wØc`x Dccv‡`¨i mvaviY c` wbY©‡qi m~‡Îi mv‡_ Zzjbv Kit ( a+ x )n n‡j mvaviY c`,
T r+1 =nc a n−r x r
r

2
Parameter (civwgwZ) : †Kvb mgMÖ‡Ki mvgwMÖK ˆewkó¨ †evSvevi Rb¨ e¨eüZ
cwimvswL¨K cwigvc‡K H mgMÖ‡Ki civwgwZ e‡j| mgMÖ‡Ki Mo ( μ) , cwiwgZ e¨eavb (
σ ) , †f`vsK (σ 2) BZ¨vw` civwgwZ cÖKvkK cÖZxK|
 Business Statistics 71

D`vniYt GKwU Rix‡c †`Lv hvq †h, †Kvb GjvKvq cÖwZ 100 R‡b GKRb mš¿vmx Av‡Q| D³
GjvKvq 400 Rb †jv‡Ki g‡a¨ GKRbI mš¿vmx bv _vKvi m¤¢vebv KZ?
Solution:
1
Here, n=400 ; p= =0.01 ; m=np=400× 0.01=4 ; x=0
100
∴ P (x =3) ¿
e−m . m x e−4 . 4 0 0.0183 ×1
= = =0.0183
x! 0! 1

 cÖ‡kœ x-Gi gv‡bi †ÿ‡Î ' ≥ ' _vK‡j 1 †_‡K x-Gi gv‡bi c~e© ch©šÍ m¤¢ve¨ mKj
m¤¢vebv we‡qvM Ki‡Z n‡e| †hgbt

P ( x ≥ 1 )=1−P(0) P ( x ≥ 3 )=1−P (0)−P(1)−P(2)

P ( x ≥ 2 )=1−P( 0)−P(1) P ( x>2 )=P ( x ≥3 )=1−P( 0)−P(1)−P(2)

 cÖ‡kœ x-Gi gv‡bi †ÿ‡Î ' ≤ ' _vK‡j '0' ‡_‡K x-Gi gvb ch©šÍ m¤¢ve¨ mKj m¤¢vebv
†hvM Ki‡Z nq| †hgbt

P ( x ≤ 1 )=P ( 0 ) + P(1) P ( x ≤ 3 )=P ( 0 ) + P(1)+ P(2)¿+ P(3)

P ( x ≤ 2 )=P ( 0 ) + P(1)+ P (2) P ( x< 4 )=P ( x ≤3 )=P ( 0 ) + P(1)+ P (2)¿+ P(3)

Binomial Distribution t n<30 , Ges p ≥0.10 A_©vr- p=0.10 ,0.20 , … … … 0.9

n‡j wØc`x web¨vm Gi gva¨‡g mgvavb Ki‡Z n‡e|
Help
Poisson Distribution t p<0.10 A_©vr- p=0.01, 0.02 , … … … n‡j Ges n -Gi
Box
†h †Kvb gv‡bi Rb¨ ˆcumy web¨vm Gi gva¨‡g
mgvavb Ki‡Z n‡e|
72 Chapter  4.2 : Probability Distribution

Chapter Exercise : Part B and C 4.2

 wØc`x web¨vm

Problem-1 [NU 2nd year 2007, 2016 (Acc)] Five men in a company of 25 are graduates [25 Rb
Kg©xi g‡a¨ 5 Rb MÖ¨vRy‡qU]. If 3 men are selected out of 25 at random, what is the
probability that they are all graduates? What is the probability that at least one graduate?

Problem-2 [NU 2006] Assume that on an average one telephone number out of 15 is busy. What
is the probability that if six randomly selected telephone numbers are called not more than three
will be busy?

ˆcumy web¨vm

Problem-3 [NU 2nd year 2015 (Special): Out of 1000 balls 50 are red and the rest white. If 60 balls
are picked at random, what is the probability of picking up (i) 3 red balls; (ii) not more than 3 red
balls in the sample?
[Assume Poisson distribution for the number of red balls picked up in the sample, where, e−3=0.0498¿

Problem-4 [NU 2nd year 2014]: A telephone operator receives 3 telephone calls on average per
minute from 10 a.m. to 12 a.m. Find the probability that is a certain minute of the given time
interval of the day, the operator receives (i) no calls; (ii) at least two calls; (iii) at best two calls.
Business Statistics 73